Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Jun-2019 PBrower and Marxism-Leninism

(06-16-2019, 11:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Without question, Marxism-Leninism as an economic policy is an
> economic disaster. Marxism-Leninism as a political order is a
> human calamity. Either way Marxism-Leninism will retard economic
> growth (a market at the least punishes wastes of resources) and
> novel creativity. What Marxism-Leninism is good at creating other
> than human suffering is weaponry -- hardly a surprise in
> militarized countries. Thus the beloved AK-47 and MiG fighters of
> the Soviet Union, East German missiles, and the infamous plastic
> explosive Symtex of Commie-era Czechoslovakia. Pour resources into
> such things with few restraints and there will be spectacular
> results.

OK, I'm totally confused.

First off, I apologize for rarely reading the other threads in this
forum, and for lumping everyone together as having political views
that range from far left to loony left, and as being guided in all
things by a vitriolic hatred of Trump and 60 million Trump supporters.
It's unfair of me to think that everyone is the same.

But you in particular have always expressed the farthest left views,
and views about Trump that I've repeatedly described as completely
delusional.

So now I read the paragraph quoted above. Have you completely
abandoned your leftist views? Would David Horn agree with that
paragraph? That paragraph might have been written by a Trump
supporter.

It reminds of some of the things that Deng Xiaoping wrote in 1978 when
he instituted an "Opening up and reform" policy that completely
reversed Socialism and opened up China to free markets and capitalism.
However, it was still a CCP dictatorship, and the phrase "Socialism
with Chinese characteristics" came into use, even though it was no
longer socialism, but was the same as Hitler's National Socialism.

Once again, I'm confused. What's happening to you? Are you going
through a midlife crisis?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Jun-2019 World View: China's motives in war against America

Guest Wrote:> Hi John, I've been reading your pages for many years and I'm
> forced to agree with you regarding the point that the ground swell
> of public opinion is what moves and shapes a nation's politics, as
> seen by the recent demonstrations in Hong Kong. While
> acknowledging, its absolute influence at the macro level, over the
> CCP may be ultimately negligible, it does show that even strong
> leaders (at least at the local level) can be bent to the will of
> the populous.

> However I do have a question regarding the coming war involving
> China.

> Over the years you have consistently stressed the high probability
> of conflict between China and the US, which seems more sure with
> every passing day. Yet with your new book and your more recent
> posts, I get the impression that you see the coming war will be
> mainly between China and Japan, with America being suck into this
> vortex more due to its military alliances. An I reading things
> correctly? Jack

For over 15 years, I've been writing about China's preparations for
war with the United States, particularly building and deploying one
advanced nuclear-capable ballistic missile system after another with
no purpose other than to attack American cities, aircraft carriers and
bases, as well as massive cyberwar. So there's never been any doubt
that China is planning to launch a war against the United States.

However, I was never entirely comfortable with that prediction, since
there's no apparent hatred of Americans by the Chinese. I've
personally known many Chinese during my life, and they were always
friendly unlike, for example, some Mexicans. Furthermore, Chinese
media has always been critical of US political policies, but there was
no hatred directed at the American people the way there is, for
example, against the Japanese people. In other words, I knew that
China was going to launch a war with the US, but I really didn't know
why.

As a result of research on my book, late last year I had a major
change in views. China does not want war against the United States,
but does want a war of revenge against Japan for the atrocities
committed during WW II. China also wants to invade Taiwan, in order
annex it. China does not want war with the US, but the CCP knows that
it will have no choice, since the US will defend Japan and Taiwan
against China's war of extermination against Japan and war of
annexation against Taiwan.

There's even an alternate explanation for all those missile systems
that China has been developing and deploying for decades. It's
possible that the Chinese believe that just having those missile
systems will serve as a threat to deter the US and to force the US to
remain neutral when China invades Japan and Taiwan. If this is what
the CCP hopes, then it's entirely delusional.

Although I've changed my views about China's motives, the bottom line
is still the same. China has developed these massive nuclear-capable
missile deployments because China expects to use them to attack
the US, and they will. It's just that the motives are different
than I said prreviously.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Jun-2019 World View: Tribal violence surges in DR Congo's Ebola region

The World Health Organization (WHO) has decided that it's not yet the
time to declare a "global health emergency" over the Ebola outbreak in
eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), in North Kivu and Ituri
provinces. The numbers of Ebola cases and deaths continue to grow,
but Ebola is still confined to the two DRC provinces, and has not
threatened other countries.

There was a Ugandan family that attended a DRC funeral and contracted
Ebola before returning to Uganda, but they were transported back to
DRC, so there are no longer any confirmed cases of Ebola in Uganda.

Over the weekend, there were stories of a woman in Kenya, having
traveled from the DRC-Uganda border, who was suffering from
hemorrhagic fever who was suspected of having contracted Ebola, but
those stories turned out to be a false alarm.

The main obstacle that WHO and other medical NGOs have faced is that
the Ebola outbreak is occurring in a tribal war zone, involving a
number of warring tribes. These tribal fighters prevent the medical
workers from doing their jobs, and the medical workers are sometimes
even attacked and killed by tribal fighters.

The tribal warfare surged again during the last two weeks in Ituri
province. The Lendu and Hema tribes had a surge of warfare, with the
result that 40 villages were burned to the group, and more than
100,000 people were forced to flee the violence. On Friday and
Saturday alone, 6,000 people arrived at a single refugee camp.

• Refugee camp in Ituri province, DRC. UN refugee camps are at
  over 100% of capacity.

In the current resurgence of Lendu-Hema violence, there have been 161
bodies found so far in one location, following 200 bodies found last
week in another location.

Ituri province is rich in gold and diamonds. The Lendu and Hema
tribes fought a major tribal war from 1999-2007, resulting in an
estimated 50,000 deaths. Violence is growing again during the
generational Awakening era.

• Map of Ituri province showing locations of Ebola
  cases

Ituri is a very large province. There's no good news in this
situation, but the only thing that comes close is that the new
resurgence of violence occurred in Bunia, which is in the farthest
northeast region of Ituri province, far from the major sites of the
Ebola outbreak, which are in central Ituri.

One of the interesting things about the media coverage of the conflict
is that the media are regularly referring to the Hema as cattle
herders and the Lendu as farmers. I've been writing about the
conflict between herders and farmers for years -- in Darfur, in South
Sudan, in Nigeria, in Central African Republic, in Mali, and so forth
-- but this is the first time I've seen the mainstream media emphasize
it.

I have the feeling that this farmer vs herder violence is surging in a
number of different places, and that most of the countries in the
northern portion of black Africa are forming some kind of giant
conflict, that could grow over the next few years, and become
especially serious because of the Ebola outbreak. This is just a
feeling that I can't (yet) back up with figures, but there's
definitely something going on.


----- Sources:

-- Ebola outbreak in Congo still not a public health emergency of
international concern
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/health/eb...index.html
(CNN, 14-Jun-2019)


-- Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo: Disease
outbreak news, 13 June 2019
https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-...utbreak-54
(ReliefWeb, 13-Jun-2019)

-- Epidemiological update: Ebola virus disease outbreak in North Kivu
and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of the Congo
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-event...-disease-o
(European CDC, 13-Jun-2019)


-- Ituri / Fighting kills at least 50 eastern DR Congo: governor
https://www.modernghana.com/news/938812/...ernor.html
(AP, 14-Jun-2019)

-- Kenya patient free of Ebola, as Congo, Uganda fight outbreak
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/...s-63756299
(AP, 17-Jun-2019)

-- Uganda steps up Ebola testing
http://en.rfi.fr/africa/20190617-Uganda-...a-Tanzania
(RFI/Reuters, 17-Jun-2019)

-- Ituri / At Least 161 Dead in Northeast Congo in Apparent Ethnic
Clashes
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articl...ic-clashes
(USNews/Reuters, 17-Jun-2019)

---- Related:


*** 13-Jun-2019 Ebola spreads from DR Congo to Uganda
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...057#p46057

** 29-Dec-18 World View -- DR Congo in election chaos, as Ebola continues to spread
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181229

[pbrower2a]

(06-17-2019, 07:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 17-Jun-2019 PBrower and  Marxism-Leninism

(06-16-2019, 11:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   Without question, Marxism-Leninism as an economic policy is an
>   economic disaster. Marxism-Leninism as a political order is a
>   human calamity. Either way Marxism-Leninism will retard economic
>   growth (a market at the least punishes wastes of resources) and
>   novel creativity. What Marxism-Leninism is good at creating other
>   than human suffering is weaponry -- hardly a surprise in
>   militarized countries.  Thus the beloved AK-47 and MiG fighters of
>   the Soviet Union, East German missiles, and the infamous plastic
>   explosive Symtex of Commie-era Czechoslovakia. Pour resources into
>   such things with few restraints and there will be spectacular
>   results.

OK, I'm totally confused.

First off, I apologize for rarely reading the other threads in this
forum, and for lumping everyone together as having political views
that range from far left to loony left, and as being guided in all
things by a vitriolic hatred of Trump and 60 million Trump supporters.
It's unfair of me to think that everyone is the same.

Marxism-Leninism is of course a manifest failure in part due to the pathological personality of Vladimir Lenin. His personality had syphilis at its core, and his personal cruelty could create nothing other than a monstrosity no matter what his ideological position.

Aside from his pathological narcissism I cannot ascertain a cause for the nastiness of Donald Trump as a person. He acts as if he can get away with things that few of us dream of. If I grabbed women by their vaginas I would be charged, and possibly convicted, of rape. If I had a daughter and some thuggish black man grabbed her by her vagina I would encourage her to prosecute him for rape or at least sexual assault.

Much of the appeal of Donald Trump is that as a businessman he would use his business acumen to reform American government into something leaner and more efficient. In view of the efficiency of totalitarian states (including China and the Soviet Union, let alone Nazi Germany and Satan Hussein's Iraq) to literally railroad people to the Gulag or the KZ-lager after even a flimsy accusation of wrong-doing, I prefer that our judicial system not be so efficient. The American government is running few business-like operations, so the argument that we can apply more business-like methods to government is void. The government must operate the military, law enforcement, and the judicial process as cost centers. The irony is that Donald Trump was not even a particularly good businessman. He is no innovator, and he has two of the easiest ways of making money at his disposal -- creating schlock television, and being a landlord in high-income areas with housing shortages.

You really should look at the polling thread. Donald Trump is not doing well. Just because you like him does not mean that he is holding onto the marginal support that he got in 2016. A grudging vote means just as much as a fanatical vote. It would not take much of a swing of votes from 2016 to 2020 to cause President Trump to lose a re-election bid. But this is simply consistent with my observation that President Trump is not doing what it takes to get re-elected, which requires that he gain enough voters who grudgingly voted against him to offset those that he loses.

Quote:But you in particular have always expressed the farthest left views,
and views about Trump that I've repeatedly described as completely
delusional.

Marxism-Leninism is so obviously obsolete that it is reactionary. Have you noticed my disdain for North Korea?

I see marks of an authoritarian leader in Donald Trump. I see his frequent denial of objective truth. I see traces of dictatorial and despotic behavior, including utmost contempt for anyone who disagrees with him. I see contempt for the weak and vulnerable, a hallmark of a predatory personality. It is not simply that I disagree with him; I see him going after anyone on the conservative side of the political spectrum if that person 'fails' to defer 100% to him. He may not be as bad as Stalin, who used people up and killed them off if they became somehow inconvenient to his designs -- but as one approaches a cliff, one must tread carefully. At some point even baby steps have lethal consequences.

Quote:So now I read the paragraph quoted above.  Have you completely
abandoned your leftist views?  Would David Horn agree with that
paragraph?  That paragraph might have been written by a Trump
supporter.

More likely a Ronald Reagan supporter. I will say this about Reagan -- no matter how much a piece of work one may have thought he was, nobody had any cause to doubt his loyalty to the United States and his respect for Constitutional niceties.

Quote:It reminds of some of the things that Deng Xiaoping wrote in 1978 when
he instituted an "Opening up and reform" policy that completely
reversed Socialism and opened up China to free markets and capitalism.
However, it was still a CCP dictatorship, and the phrase "Socialism
with Chinese characteristics" came into use, even though it was no
longer socialism, but was the same as Hitler's National Socialism.

The problems with China should be obvious.

First, China is not at all a democracy. It has a dominant-Party system in which there is some show of a nominal opposition -- but the split in power is a reliable 60-40, so the nominal opposition gets to keep its dreams (think of Democrats in Utah or Republicans in New York City) but never wins anything except some tiny concession.

Second, the capitalist and free-enterprise concessions are made for strengthening the economic power and ultimately military power of China, and not for giving workers any rights. Government-controlled unions such as those in China are worthless to a worker. They are good for fleecing workers on behalf of political hacks and exhorting workers to toil harder and with more dedication so that they can deserve more from employers and create a 'stronger' economy. Such was the role of Robert Ley, a Nazi political hack who was head of the Deutsche Arbeitsfront which took over the functions of what had been independent labor unions in Germany under Hitler.
One is better off with no union than with a union that sells workers out to an employer while fleecing those workers.

Third, China has yet to become a consumer society or welfare state (the two go together) as the other countries on your list are. The objective is productivity, and not the prosperity of workers. China exports much, takes the proceeds on behalf of the state apparatus (including the bloated military) and lets workers get little. It may be better than what the Chinese used to get in China, but it is still a raw deal.

If you want a Fourth Turning  assessment -- such implies the sort of contradictions that History often resolves either with reform -- or violence. So see I on China. But I also see trouble in America with a President who offends the sensibilities of the Intelligence services and the senior officers of the Armed Forces. Obama was easy to deal with because he knew and respected the rules, including Constitutional niceties. He wanted terrorists whacked, as did the Intelligence services and the Armed Forces. Obama was the velvet glove on the mailed fist when it came to dispatching terrorists like Awlaki and Osama bin Laden.

Quote:Once again, I'm confused.  What's happening to you?  Are you going through a midlife crisis?

I have never liked totalitarian or even authoritarian regimes. They invariably bring raw deals to the common man who does the toil. I see copious warnings about Donald Trump from, of all people, George Orwell. Of course it goes beyond him to economic elites who see themselves entitled to squeeze the worker to exact more profit, graft, and executive compensation. Even our current tax laws promote monopoly and vertical integration that imply the increasing power of corporate behemoths too big to fail or even judge. I also distrust media (most infamously FoX "News") that use Orwellian Newspeak and even the Two Minute Hate.

...In any event, national success is a balance between tradition that allows some cohesion in life (as in legal precedent and institutional checks-and-balances) and incremental reforms. I recognize that our political institutions are designed for a People with a moral compass and for the absence of the concentration of economic power. American political institutions were built for a nation whose businesses were largely small and hence unable to either bribe politicians or hire lobbyists to monitor nominally-elected officials.

We have drifted toward government by lobbyist, which is a novel form of unrepresentative government and possibly an inchoate dictatorship. We are approaching a cliff, and even baby steps in the direction of the cliff portend disaster. You and I can do little about China, but here we are in America. Institutions established over 200 years ago are at risk for specious reasons, and not by some madman overseas like Hitler or Tojo but instead by vile, corrupt people here.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 20-Jun-2019 World View: Turkey-EU tensions grow over Cyprus

It's probably not yet about to become a shooting war, but tensions
over Cyprus between Turkey versus Greece and the EU are the highest in
years. The tensions are over Turkey's plans to drill for gas and oil
in the waters west of Cyprus.

• Map of Cyprus in the east Mediterranean Sea

The island of Cyprus was a colony of Britain until it
gained independence from Britain in 1960 under a power-sharing
agreement between the Greeks and the Turks. Three countries --
Britain, Greece and Turkey -- would be responsible for
guaranteeing security in the new country.

Violence erupted soon after. In 1974, Greece's military junta backed
a coup against the president of Cyprus, leading to a civil war.
Turkey responded by invading northern Cyprus. About 165,000 Greek
Cypriots fled or were driven from the Turkish-occupied north, and
about 45,000 Turkish Cypriots left the south for the north.

Cyprus has been bitterly divided since the 1974 war, with Greek
Orthodox Christian Greeks governing the south, and Muslim Turks
governing the north. The two sides are partitioned by a "no-man's
land," a strip that stretches 112 miles across the entire island.

• Cyprus today.
  https://www.a-maverick.com/blog/cyprus-t...amed-after

The capital city Nicosia is in the center of Cyprus and is
partitioned as well. While partitions of other cities,
including Beirut, Belfast and Berlin, have disappeared in the last
few decades, the partition remains in Nicosia.

The Greek-ruled southern portion of Cyprus has become known as the
Republic of Cyprus. It joined the European Union on May 1, 2004, and
joined the eurozone on January 1, 2008. In the years that followed,
Cyprus had a major financial crisis and had to be bailed out by the
European Central Bank, the International Fund, and the European
Commission. Cyprus is not a member of Nato, and attempts for Cyprus
to join Nato have been blocked by the powerful pro-Russian communists
in the Greek Cypriot government.

The current surge in tensions was triggered in February, after
ExxonMobil announced that deep-water drilling off the western coast of
Cyprus had revealed a significant discovery of oil and gas. Greek
Cypriot energy minister Georgios Lakkotrypis said:

Quote: "This is the biggest discovery so far in Cyprus’s
exclusive economic [maritime] zone (EEZ) and, based on official
data, one of the biggest worldwide in the last two
years."

This must have sounded to officials in Turkey like waving a red flag
in front of a bull. Turkey does not recognize the sovereignty of the
(Greek) Republic of Cyprus, and in particular does not recognize
Cyprus's EEZ.

Turkey's foreign minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu released a letter saying:

Quote: "Turkey does not recognize the unilateral and
illegitimate exclusive economic zone claims of the Greek Cypriots.
Third parties should refrain in taking sides in overlapping
maritime boundary claims and they should not act as if they are in
a court in rendering judgement on bilateral maritime
boundaries."

Turkey said it would “exercise its sovereign rights” to drill off
Cyprus, and deployed its state-of-the-art drilling ship, the Fatih,
and its support vessels in May to begin drilling operations in the
potential gas fields identified by ExxonMobil, in Greek Cyprus's EEZ.

Then, last week, Turkey announced that it will send a second drilling
ship, the Yavuz, which can drill 12,200 meters deep, to begin
operations in early July.

The EU is threatening diplomatic retaliation, by freezing negotiations
over the modernization of the customs union between the EU and Turkey.
Originally, Turkey was going to join the European Union, but those
negotiations died years ago. Then Turkey was going to join the
Schengen zone, which would mean that any Turkish citizen could travel
throughout Europe without requiring a visa, but those negotiations
died as well. So now the negotiations have been over a customs
union, which would allow relatively frictionless trade between
Turkey and the EU, and the EU is threatening to end those negotiations
as well, because of the new Cyprus crisis.

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras would like the EU to impose
sanctions on Turkey. But the EU cannot go too far in sanctioning or
even criticizing Turkey, since Turkey is the gatekeeper for millions
of Syrian refugees on Turkish soil who would otherwise have tried to
reach Europe.


---- Sources:

-- Greece and Cyprus call on EU to punish Turkey in drilling dispute
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/j...ng-dispute
(Guardian, 18-Jun-2019)

-- Turkey insists on right to drill for energy reserves off Cyprus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/m...off-cyprus
(Guardian, 20-May-2019)

-- Huge gas discovery off Cyprus could boost EU energy security
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/f...y-security
(Guardian, 28-Feb-2019)

-- Turkey launches new gas drillship amid tensions with Cyprus
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/...story.html
(WaPost/AP, 20-Jun-2019)

-- Turkey Defies EU by Sending Second Ship to Drill Off Cyprus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...off-cyprus
(BB, 20-Jun-2019)

-- Cyprus Ghost Town Becomes Pawn in Drilling Dispute With Turkey
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ith-turkey
(BB, 19-Jun-2019)

-- NATO Membership for Cyprus. Yes, Cyprus.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ne...for-cyprus
(AtlanticCouncil, 31-Mar-2019)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 20-Jun-2019 World View: World War II anecdote

I received the following e-mail message from a reader in response to
my announcement of my book. It contains some interesting anecdotes
about World War II.

Mr. Xenakis:

Thank you for letting me know about the publishing of your book on
China. I will be ordering it and a couple of more copies for friends
and family. Especially for my brother in-law, whose father was in the
7th Marines with Colonel Chesty Puller at Guadalcanal and Peleliu and
miraculously lived to return home at the end of the war. I have
reached the age where all of the relatives that fought in either WWII
or Korea have long since passed on.

An interesting anecdote about my father-in-law and his serving under
Colonel Puller: at the battle for Guadalcanal, the Japanese navy had
sunk many of the US Navy support ships intended to keep the marines
ashore supplied. The Marines there ran low on ammunition, food
rations, uniforms, everything. It was weeks before they were
resupplied. Prior to the siege of Guadalcanal, my father-in-law had
written home to his folks in Georgia and requested a hair clipper set
(manual, not electric). While at Guadalcanal, with the extreme
shortage of supplies, the Marines there had gotten quite straggly in
appearance. When packages from home finally reach the men on
Guadalcanal, my father-in-law cleaned up his haircut and his fellow
Marines started asking him to cut their hair. Chesty Puller and his
aides came walking by, saw what was going on, and Colonel Puller, who
could have gone to the front of the line, instead got in line behind
the enlisted men already in line. He did however give a command to my
father-in-law while he moved to get in line. My father-in-law was
using a white t-shirt to drape over the shoulders of the men as he was
cutting their hair. Colonel Puller said "Old man (that was apparently
Puller's way of addressing those under his command and rank), best to
use a olive drab shirt than a white shirt. We don't need to give the
Jap snipers an easier target". After Colonel Puller's turn he tried to
pay my father-in-law for cutting his hair, but my father-in-law
declined and said he wasn't charging anybody, he was just trying to
help. I thought that was just an amazing story. He never talked about
the combat however. He was a machine gunner and you know he must have
witnessed some truly horrific things. None of the veterans I met would
talk about it. My guess their experiences were so horrific that they
did not want to talk about it because it would bring up those horrible
memories and their way of dealing with it was to keep it shoved up in
a deep recess of their minds and ignored, as a way of coping. Those
that survived came back home after the war and got on with their
lives. I myself cannot imagine how hard that must have been. Maybe it
was because they were just grateful to be alive, and maybe even had
some survivor's guilt.

I read you book on Iran and learned insights about it that I had not
known or heard about. I look forward to reading your book on China.

Again, thank you for contacting me in regard to it. I hope the sales
will be very good and hope that you benefit from it financially. I
know you must have put your heart and soul into it.

Best wishes, ...

[John J. Xenakis]

** 21-Jun-2019 Situation in Iran after drone shot down

mps92 Wrote:> Aren't we going to talk about the situation in Iran?

> The way Trump handled the situation was brilliant. By approving
> the attack but calling it off at the last minute, we avoid war but
> the Iranians understand that conflict is never off the table. It
> looks like the report was leaked deliberately. Absolute genius.

> Trump is also showing that he's not the trigger-happy maniac
> that's just waiting to push the button. He gave Iran the benefit
> of the doubt by assuming that the drone was shot down by some
> foolish, overeager, swashbuckling Iranian officer against the
> wishes of the Iran govt.

> As John has stated, unnecessary and risky decisions by officers
> can easily start wars, even if neither govt wants conflict. Let's
> just pray that Trump is aware that Iran should be our ally instead
> of our enemy, and aware that the China-Pakistan axis is the real
> threat.

What's happened with Iran in the last 24 hours is absolutely
breathtaking.

If that whole scenario was accidental, then Trump is very lucky that
nothing went wrong.

But if you're right that Trump masterminded the scenario -- and that's
certainly quite possible or even likely, given his past successes with
foreign policy scenarios -- then you're right that it was brilliant.

I've never believed that the US and Iran were headed for war. Iran is
in a generational Awakening era, and has a history (since the
humiliating defeat in the Anglo-Persian wars of the 1800s) of avoiding
an actual war. Doing abductions and terrorist acts, whether through
Hezbollah, or exploding oil tankers or shooting down drones, is
exactly the style of Iran, especially since the 1979 revolution. That
way, Iran can gain the benefits of performing acts of war, while
maintaining deniability. ("We didn't do anything. There's no
evidence whatsoever." We hear this all the time from Russia.)

Trump, on the other hand, through his knowledge of Generational
Dynamics that he learned through Steve Bannon, understands that Iran's
hostility is only in the old hardline geezers, who are opposed by the
growing younger population that are anti-hardline and pro-West, so
Trump does not want to turn Iran's younger population against the
United States.

So there was never going to be a war or, if one begins, it will fizzle
quickly.

Trump said that he was going to strike 3 radar stations, but held back
since 150 people would be killed. The Iranians claim they could have
shot down an American spy plane with 8 people, but held back. So both
sides are signaling that they don't want war.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I can see one advantage with drones-if one is shot down, there is no pilot to be killed or captured. So it is relatively easy for a government to write off the drone and avoid war.

[Tim Randal Walker]

The surviving veterans of WWII have aged into the Old-old category, and the surviving Korean War veterans are quite old now.

[pbrower2a]

(06-21-2019, 03:09 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The surviving veterans of WWII have aged into the Old-old category, and the surviving Korean War veterans are quite old now.

The Vietnam-era veterans are themselves old now, the youngest being in their late 60's. That's about where WWII vets were about a quarter-century ago.

[pbrower2a]

(06-21-2019, 03:06 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I can see one advantage with drones-if one is shot down, there is no pilot to be killed or captured.  So it is relatively easy for a government to write off the drone and avoid war.

That's a big advantage with using drones. I expect them to be put to more high-risk activities. I am surprised to have not heard of them being used for fire-fighting and traffic-law enforcement.  One of the biggest BS claims is that state police use aircraft to detect speeders. It's simply too expensive to do so because such requires two state troopers in the air to detect the speeder and another on the ground to intercept the speeder. Have a spotter not a cop doing video surveillance with images from the drone? I could do that job, and I would need no badge. In fire-fighting they would be suited to suicide missions.

[pbrower2a]

(06-21-2019, 01:51 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Jun-2019 Situation in Iran after drone shot down

mps92 Wrote:>   Aren't we going to talk about the situation in Iran?

>   The way Trump handled the situation was brilliant. By approving
>   the attack but calling it off at the last minute, we avoid war but
>   the Iranians understand that conflict is never off the table. It
>   looks like the report was leaked deliberately. Absolute genius.

>   Trump is also showing that he's not the trigger-happy maniac
>   that's just waiting to push the button. He gave Iran the benefit
>   of the doubt by assuming that the drone was shot down by some
>   foolish, overeager, swashbuckling Iranian officer against the
>   wishes of the Iran govt.

>   As John has stated, unnecessary and risky decisions by officers
>   can easily start wars, even if neither govt wants conflict. Let's
>   just pray that Trump is aware that Iran should be our ally instead
>   of our enemy, and aware that the China-Pakistan axis is the real
>   threat.

What's happened with Iran in the last 24 hours is absolutely
breathtaking.

If that whole scenario was accidental, then Trump is very lucky that
nothing went wrong.

But if you're right that Trump masterminded the scenario -- and that's
certainly quite possible or even likely, given his past successes with
foreign policy scenarios -- then you're right that it was brilliant.

Trump is a pathological risk-taker as one would expect of a narcissist bordering on a sociopath. Occasionally a sociopath takes a risk nobody else would dream of and gets away with it. Thus the sociopath is brilliant. Think of what a darling of the financial world Enron was about five years before its collapse. After the collapse, many of the key figures were easy to prosecute for severe violations of the law, and the perpetrators were no longer credited with brilliance. But this said, the mobsters who seem to pull off the Perfect Crime as a rule are not brilliant people. Eventually they slip up, getting killed by a fellow mobster or getting caught in the maws of law enforcement and the legal process.

My experience with legitimately-brilliant people is that they are cautious -- perhaps because caution is necessary in law, medicine, engineering, and scientific research that attract such people. Recklessness is not worth the reward, and in some areas of scientific research it can get one killed. In law or medicine, recklessness can ruin a reputation.

I am not convinced that Donald Trump is brilliant; instead I think that he has gotten away with much that few of us would dream of doing.

Quote:I've never believed that the US and Iran were headed for war.  Iran is
in a generational Awakening era, and has a history (since the
humiliating defeat in the Anglo-Persian wars of the 1800s) of avoiding
an actual war.  Doing abductions and terrorist acts, whether through
Hezbollah, or exploding oil tankers or shooting down drones, is
exactly the style of Iran, especially since the 1979 revolution.  That
way, Iran can gain the benefits of performing acts of war, while
maintaining deniability.  ("We didn't do anything.  There's no
evidence whatsoever."  We hear this all the time from Russia.)

Abductions? If someone did a terrorist act against China and got to the United States, I would not be surprised that the perpetrator would be abducted or killed. After the whacking of Osama bin Laden, no place -- not even Langley, Virginia (home of the CIA)  -- is a safe haven for a terrorist. (I am satisfied that the United States would turn over a wanted terrorist or war criminal because it has done so even with the Soviet Union, so hiding anywhere in the US would be moot). China has put the squeeze on Thailand and Laos to turn over pirates who murdered Chinese merchant seamen on the Mekong River (which by treaty is international waters).

I can't imagine Iran blowing an oil tanker out of the water. Iran has as much interest in free access to the world's shipping lanes in view of its biggest export (crude oil) and one of its biggest imports (gasoline -- Iran has no refineries). Iran exports crude oil to India, which sells gasoline back to Iran.

Quote:Trump, on the other hand, through his knowledge of Generational
Dynamics that he learned through Steve Bannon, understands that Iran's
hostility is only in the old hardline geezers, who are opposed by the
growing younger population that are anti-hardline and pro-West, so
Trump does not want to turn Iran's younger population against the
United States.

Figuring that Donald Trump gets most of his information through the spoken word (not characteristic of a brilliant person) instead of through the written word (which is more typical of a brilliant person), he may have been exposed to generational theory through Steve Bannon. People can read into generational theory whatever they want to that fits core beliefs on anything else; thus a neo-Nazi might interpret the culmination of a Crisis Era into some "RAcial HOly WAr" and a Commie might see a Crisis Era as the most likely time for a failure of capitalism that results in the optimal time for a Socialist revolution.

I am not sure that the dominance of 'geezers' in the political elite of Iran will go away. The power to determine what legislation is possible and what is not based upon an interpretation of holy texts at one's whim and to wax fat from corruption can always attract people groomed for roles in the entrenched elite. The people in real power in Iran are not the generational cohort of Khomeini any more than the leaders of the American entertainment industry are the generational cohort of Billy Wilder and Bob Hope.

Quote:So there was never going to be a war or, if one begins, it will fizzle
quickly.

Trump said that he was going to strike 3 radar stations, but held back
since 150 people would be killed.  The Iranians claim they could have
shot down an American spy plane with 8 people, but held back.  So both
sides are signaling that they don't want war.

Could it be that the Iranian leadership is more concerned with its survival? Could it be that the current leadership of Iran has things too good to risk, and no longer believes that their revolution is no longer some inevitable wave of the future? On the other side of the northern hemisphere, could it be that even the economic interests most aligned with President Trump (the fossil-fuels industry) has its own concerns with the supply of oil? Higher prices maybe inadequate compensation for a breakdown in supply. Besides, the American  and intelligence services  and the Armed Services have their own byzantine bureaucracies to protect. Senior military officers have been around long before President Trump, and the middle-ranking ones of promise expect to be around after Trump is gone. They do not wish to risk a military catastrophe, let alone be connected to war crimes or crimes against peace, just because the current President is a reckless risk-taker. Our senior military officers and spy chiefs live very well.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
  
• Similarities with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
  
• Differences with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
  
• Southern China vs Northern China
  
• No good choices for Xi Jinping
  

****
**** Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
****


Protesters outside police headquarters in Hong Kong on Friday (SCMP)

Thousands of protesters in Hong Kong blocked police headquarters on
Friday, continuing their protests that were triggered by the proposed
"Extradition Law."

In the hope of allowing the protests to fizzle out, the Hong Kong
police took no action to disperse the protesters. However,
larger protests are planned all weekend.

The proposed Extradition Law that would permit Hong Kong's government
to extradite anyone in Hong Kong -- citizens, businessmen and tourists
alike -- to China, to be tried by Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thugs
in Beijing courts. The proposed law would also permit mainland
Chinese courts can request Hong Kong courts to freeze and confiscate
assets related to crimes committed on the mainland, and give control
of those assets to the CCP in Beijing.

Officials in Hong Kong and Beijing were shocked last week by the size
of the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Some two million
protesters filled the streets, over one-quarter of the entire Hong
Kong population.

With the third protest bringing one-quarter of Hong Kong's population
out on the streets to demand that Beijing's hand-picked leader Carrie
Lam step down, pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong and Taiwan have
been emboldened. For the CCP, it's a question of what action must be
taken, not whether action should be taken.

When Britain handed Hong Kong over to China in 1997, there was a "one
country, two systems" agreement that would allow Hong Kong to retain
its own social legal and political systems. There was a strong
firewall in the agreement between the Hong Kong and Beijing legal
systems that the extradition law would breach.

Carrie Lam has profusely and abjectly apologized to the people of Hong
Kong, and announced the suspension of consideration for the
extradition bill. With activists planning massive new pro-democracy
demonstrations on Sunday of last weekend, Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam
announced on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"After repeated internal deliberations over the last
two days, I now announce that the government has decided to
suspend the legislative amendment exercise, restart our
communication with all sectors of society, do more explanation
work and listen to different views of society."<END QUOTE>

Activists are demanding that the extradition law be scrapped
completely, so this temporary suspension will not satisfy activists.
As positions have hardened, this issue has taken on a symbolism that
goes far beyond Hong Kong.

No matter how weepy her apology was, she has little credibility among
the demonstrators because she didn't announce complete withdrawal of
the extradition law, which is a signal that it's going to be revived
at a time of the CCP's choosing.

Lam's climbdown was a major humiliation for the CCP, and Hong Kong is
Xi Jinping's portfolio, so hardliners in Beijing are blaming Xi for
the problems in Hong Kong. Xi is also being blamed for the failure so
far of the US-China trade negotiations. So Xi has two crises on his
hands, just before the G20 talks. This weakens Xi at a time when
there are hardliners in Beijing just waiting for Xi to fail so that
they can take over. Xi's position as "dictator for life" is not 100%
secure, and a palace coup would undoubtedly bring to power someone
younger and even more bellicose and belligerent.

Hardliners in Taiwan will also be strengthened. China has been using
a carrot and stick approach with Taiwan. On the one hand, Chinese
officials say that any move toward independence would result in
military reprisals. On the other hand, China has been on a continual
charm offensive to convince the Taiwanese people how much better off
they'd be as a province of China. Part of that charm offensive has
been to claim that Taiwan could have the same "one country, two
systems" perks that Hong Kong has. The protests in Hong Kong have
emboldened the pro-independence factions.

The protests last week were the largest that Hong Kong has seen since
June 1989, when Hong Kong was still a British colony, and millions in
Hong Kong protested against China in support of the millions of
students in the pro-democracy demonstrations Tiananmen Square, where
the CCP massacred thousands of students on June 4-5, 1989.

****
**** Similarities with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
****

Because of the similarity between last week's Hong Kong protests and
the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests, if you want to understand the most
likely outcome of the Hong Kong protests, look at the history of the
Tiananmen Square massacre, and examine the similarities and
differences.

The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests did not begin on June 4. They
began in early May, commemorating the 70th anniversary of the
Tiananmen Square protests that launched the "May 4th Movement" on May
4, 1919. Throughout May 1989, the CCP watched Tiananmen Square with
growing alarm, because the pro-democracy protests were actually a
repudiation of the ideology of Socialism, Marxism and Communism.

In the perverse, delusional logic of the CCP, democracy is an
ideology, not a form of government. Furthermore, the CCP sees
democracy as an ideology in conflict with communism. So by the
beginning of June, the CCP was so alarmed that they had to crush the
protests, to prevent democracy from gaining an ideological victory.

The current pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong so far are on a
similar path. They're commemorating the 30th anniversary of the 1989
Tiananmen Square protests. As the number of protesters has grown into
the millions, the CCP in Beijing is seeing 1989 all over again. And
the pro-democracy protests are, once again, a repudiation of the
"communist" ideology promulgated by the CCP.

According to unnamed CCP sources speaking to Boxun.com, Xi Jinping has
already decided that "The situation in Hong Kong is in danger of
getting out of control," and that he will order a military response if
the situation worsens.

These sources say that the Southern Theater Command of the People's
Liberation Army (PLA) and the Hong Kong Garrison are awaiting orders
and prepared to fully respond to all possible scenarios that may arise
in Hong Kong.

Since 1997, the Hong Kong Garrison is a group of several thousand PLA
soldiers who are stationed in Hong Kong, but are meant to be
"invisible." They are confined to barracks, where they wear their
uniforms, but are not permitted to wear their uniforms in public.
They've never left their barracks in uniform in the 22 years they've
been stationed in Hong Kong, but they're prepared to emerge and take
military action if ordered to do so.

****
**** Differences with 1989 Tiananmen Square pro-democracy protests
****

We've described the similarities with the 1989 Tiananmen Square
situation. However, there are significant differences as well.

The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre took place in Beijing, a region
tightly controlled by the CCP, where the international media was well
controlled, and was shut down quickly.

However, there's virtually no control of the international media in
Hong Kong. The CCP has canceled visas and deported journalists of
several publications, but the events of the last two week prove that
any violence in Hong Kong will immediately be known and broadcast
worldwide.

****
**** Southern China vs Northern China
****

However, there's a more important difference: The Tiananmen Square
massacre took place in Beijing in northern China, while Hong Kong is
in southern China.

Southeast China was the starting point of the last two massive Chinese
civil wars. Mao Zedong's Long March that led to the Communist
revolution civil war (1934-49) started in the south. The massive
Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), which was led by a Christian convert who
believed he was the son of God and the younger brother of Jesus, began
in the south and spread north.

Most people in the West do not make these connections, but you can be
certain that the paranoid officials in Beijing are well aware of the
dangers of a rebellion from the south that can spiral out of control
and travel north to swallow up Beijing.

Try playing around with the interactive "China strike map" from the
Hong Kong based China labor bulletin: https://maps.clb.org.hk/strikes/en

If you set the year to 2011, 2012, etc., you'll see that the number of
labor strikes is gradually increasing, from 184 in 2011 to 1702 in
2018. Furthermore, most of the strikes occur in southeast China,
which was the starting point of the unrest that led to the last two
massive Chinese civil wars.

This shows that there's already a level of unrest in southeast China,
and it's been growing steadily and relentlessly for years. Xi Jinping
is well aware of this.

Throughout China's millennia of history, there have been huge, massive
anti-government rebellions at regular intervals. In the last 200
years there have been the the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805), the
Taiping Rebellion (1852-64), and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49).
Today, China is overdue for the next massive anti-government
rebellion, and Xi Jinping is well aware that the Hong Kong
pro-democracy demonstrations could be the trigger.

Xi Jinping has another worry. There is no surer way to trigger a mass
rebellion in China than a failing economy. China's economy has
already taken a big hit from the new US tariffs, as many businesses
are relocating out of China to neighboring countries.

Hong Kong has always been China's portal to the world financial
system, and if Hong Kong become chaotic to the point that this portal
is essentially shut down, it will cause the economic failure that will
trigger the expected rebellion.

****
**** No good choices for Xi Jinping
****

So Xi Jinping is boxed in, with no good choices.

• Enacting the Extradition Law will cause more businessmen to
  flee to protect themselves and their assets.
  
  
• Canceling the Extradition Law will embolden pro-democracy
  activists in Hong Kong and pro-independence activists in Taiwan.
  
  
• Violently stopping the pro-democracy demonstrations will bring
  chaos to Hong Kong, and threaten it as a global financial portal.
  
  
• Allowing the pro-democracy demonstrations to continue unchecked
  will risk triggering a rebellion starting in southern China.

It's hard to overestimate the shock felt in Hong Kong and Beijing over
the size of the pro-democracy demonstrations last week, and their
similarity to the 1989 pro-democracy demonstrations in Tiananmen
Square.

The Chinese are running out of time in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and they
know it. The survivors of Mao's Communist Revolution are almost all
gone now, and the younger generations are increasingly anti-communist
and pro-democracy and pro-independence. At the same time, China's own
economy is hugely unstable and under pressure from the US tariffs.
China's entire business model, which involves stealing intellectual
property from the West, is also under attack.

China cannot tolerate this situation much longer. For 30 years, China
has been conducting a vitriolic hate campaign against Japan, and has
been planning for war to annex Taiwan and exterminate the Japanese.
The Chinese do not want war with the US (because they like us), but
they've been preparing for it.

Carrie Lam's weepy apology was certainly not an act of heartfelt
atonement or reconciliation, since that's not what the CCP ever does.
Instead, it was an act of total desperation, an attempt to head off
the worst. Over the next few weeks and months, we'll see if she
succeeded.

John J. Xenakis is author of "World View: War Between China and Japan: Why America Must Be Prepared (Generational Theory Book Series, Book 2)"

Sources: South China Morning Post, Hong Kong and China Labor Bulletin, Hong Kong
and Reuters, 15-Jun-2019 and ChannelNewsAsia/AFP, 15-Jun-2019 and Bloomberg, 13-Jun-2019 and Bloomberg, 16-Jun-2019 and Hong Kong Free Press, 18-Jun-2019 and Taiwan News, 12-Jun-2019 and Boxun, 11-Jun-2019 and Inkstone, 3-Aug-2018


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong, Extradition Law,
Carrie Lam, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Britain,
Tiananmen Square massacre, May 4th Movement,
People's Liberation Army, PLA,
Southern Theater Command, Hong Kong Garrison,
Taiping Rebellion, White Lotus Rebellion,
Mao Zedong, Long March, Communist Revolution

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[John J. Xenakis]

** 22-Jun-2019 Businessmen vs politicians

(06-21-2019, 07:06 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > My experience with legitimately-brilliant people is that they are
> cautious -- perhaps because caution is necessary in law, medicine,
> engineering, and scientific research that attract such
> people. Recklessness is not worth the reward, and in some areas of
> scientific research it can get one killed. In law or medicine,
> recklessness can ruin a reputation.

He was cautious - he backed off. Imagine how you would be ranting and
screaming if he hadn't.

You left "business" off your list. Businessmen are the brilliant ones
that do all the actual work, build businesses, create jobs, create the
wealth, provide food and shelter, provide energy and transportation,
and make everyone's lives better. It's good that you left "politics"
off your list. Politicians are the stupid ones that do nothing except
sit on their asses and whine and complain, while contributing nothing
to society except hot air.

[pbrower2a]

(06-22-2019, 10:54 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 22-Jun-2019 Businessmen vs politicians

(06-21-2019, 07:06 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   My experience with legitimately-brilliant people is that they are
>   cautious -- perhaps because caution is necessary in law, medicine,
>   engineering, and scientific research that attract such
>   people. Recklessness is not worth the reward, and in some areas of
>   scientific research it can get one killed. In law or medicine,
>   recklessness can ruin a reputation.

He was cautious - he backed off.  Imagine how you would be ranting and
screaming if he hadn't.

It is a good thing that he did back off on Iran. I suspect that it was people in the oil business that told him that a war with Iran was a very bad idea. Engineers, attorneys, and accountants? That is what I would expect as top executives of oil companies. Donald Trump is neither an engineer, attorney, or accountant -- and he would never make the grade as one of those.

Quote:You left "business" off your list.  Businessmen are the brilliant ones
that do all the actual work, build businesses, create jobs, create the
wealth, provide food and shelter, provide energy and transportation,
and make everyone's lives better.  It's good that you left "politics"
off your list.  Politicians are the stupid ones that do nothing except
sit on their asses and whine and complain, while contributing nothing
to society except hot air.

Ruling out the professional practices in law, medicine, engineering, architecture, and accountancy that are not really entrepreneurial, or firms associated with the promotion of an invention itself the result of technical majesty (high technology) , most who start small business are not brilliant people. Every true enterprise is a risky proposition that puts an investment in danger of evaporating if the idea flops.

Laborers could make the case that they do the real work -- if one means the back-breaking, dirty, and often dangerous toil of farm labor, mining, logging, and meat-cutting. This is especially so with an established enterprise in which the initial enterprise has devolved into a bureaucratic behemoth. So it is whatever the economic system -- feudal, capitalist, or Marxist-Leninist. But in general, the people who become laborers are toward the low end in intellectual ability. People able to do something else usually do something else, including skilled labor that is generally not so onerous and is of course better-paid. The tycoons that got the profits from starting a railroad in the Gilded Age (one of the simpler models of enterprise) connected investment funds, not always their own, to labor, machinery, and supplies.  I am not saying that connecting money to a private project isn't important; it is crucial.

I could make the case that in a well-functioning capitalist system that one group of businesspeople must be especially cautious: bankers. They connect funds, not usually their own but those of savers, to business activities from the purchase of real estate and motor vehicles on credit to business activity as big as fits the money available. Ideally the bankers are the people who can say no to "LSD deals" by ensuring that the person borrowing the money stands to lose big in the event of failure. Trouble arises with a bubble economy in which bankers assume entrepreneurial risk to make outrageous incomes. Are bankers the smartest people in business? Hardly. They are often the laziest, least imaginative, and most rigid-thinking people in business, people who like to dress well and not do any hard work -- and they get paid accordingly. If one has more on the ball one might prefer becoming a manager trainee at a fast-food place in which a mediocrity will do such work as unloading trucks, cleaning equipment, and counting the money in the register.

OK, one can be cautious and not very smart. Guess what -- that is valuable, far more valuable than being reckless but dull. Indeed, i would stay clear of the reckless-but-dull.

As for the politicians -- the top ones are usually attorneys.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 23-Jun-2019 World View: Vitriolic racial north-south China split

In the last 24 hours I've really become aware of a very deep racial
divide separating northern and southern China. I'm referring to the
article that I posted yesterday about how the Hong Kong protests are
inflaming the north-south split in China.

I cross-posted this article on Breitbart, where it's gotten hundreds
of comments. One thing that I noticed immediately is that no one
seems to be disagreeing with the article. Typically I get people
calling me a neocon or a libtard or worse, but in this case the
article was quoted only to agree with it.

What's most important, however, is that comments have taken a strong
vitriolic racist turn. One person in particular says that the
Cantonese people in Hong Kong will easily be defeated by the CCP army
because they are filthy and weak, too weak to fight, and will collapse
immediately rather than die.

I've also learned a few Chinese words. A southerner is referred to as
a "hao," a Westerner is a "gweilo," and "Cao ni ma wumao" means "F***
your mother, CCP 50 cent Army troll."

I hadn't realized until now the depth of racial hatred between the
"Han" and the "Hao" (assuming I have those terms right), but it also
explains what's going on with the "Patriotic Education Campaign,"
whose purpose is to direct Chinese nationalistic hatred towards Japan,
rather than towards other Chinese.

Ever since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests and the collapse of the
Soviet Union in 1991, the CCP government has been pursuing a
relentless "Patriotic Education Campaign" to stir up nationalistic
hatred against the West, and particularly against Japan. I described
this in my book, and here's a 2015 Diplomat article that describes it:

https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/chinas-w...in-action/

As I described in the article, China's last two massive rebellions
(the Communist Revolution and the Taiping Rebellion) began in the
south and moved against the north. The purpose of the "Patriotic
Education Campaign" is to prevent a new north-south rebellion by
stoking anti-Japanese nationalism. But it won't work. All it means
is that there will be a north-south rebellion AND a war with Japan.

Anyone who thinks that this kind of vitriolic hatred won't
lead to war should remember how the Sino-Japanese war got started.
If you had been around in early 1937, and somebody had said to you,
"Before the end if this year, Japan is going to declare war on China,
and in the 'rape of Nanking,' hundreds of thousands of Chinese
civilians will be summarily beaten, tortured, raped, and slaughtered,
even after surrendering," you would probably have thought that was
ridiculous, but that's exactly what happened.

So we have this same kind of vitriolic hatred in China-Japan relations
and in north-south China relations. During World War II, China faced
an internal rebellion and an external war with Japan. The same thing
is going to happen again.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.

---- Source:

-- Japan / China nationalism / China's WW2 Remembrance: 'Patriotic
Education' in Action
https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/chinas-w...in-action/
(Diplomat, 15-Aug-2015)


---- Related:

** 22-Jun-19 World View -- Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190622

[pbrower2a]

Only rarely has China been meaningfully unified -- and I mean China Proper. China has long been a multi-ethnic society even if outsiders cannot make ready distinctions between even North China and South China. But there one is making distinctions between people as different as Norwegians and Greeks.

China has been difficult to unify. China has a heritage of weak central government that often relies more upon brutality than upon service to the masses. That rarely succeeds for more than about 75 years by which time comes an invader capable of destroying the shaky edifice of society.

If I could change Chinese modern history, I would make the efforts of Sun Yat-Sen to make China a united society with a responsible government more effective. Maybe China would not have seemed so vulnerable to Japan, and maybe China would be a liberal democracy today with a more advanced consumer economy. The Commies would have never had a chance.

Those who have met contemporary Japanese see a very different Japan than the thug empire that brutalized everything from Manchukuo to Indonesia and from Burma to... well, it was stopped at Midway. Japan may be the sort of country that mauls any country that does evil to it, but it is not going to invade China. But what do the Chinese see? Official propaganda of the state masquerading as education. Thus World War II was heroic resistance against brutal Japanese invaders and sell-out opportunists against whom the Chinese Communist Party was the only effective leadership. Propaganda is as effective in preserving an obsolete world-view as it is in efforts to impose a new one.

So if I had a Japanese girlfriend at a critical time, what would I have seen? Obviously the kimonos, the bonsai trees, a strange writing system, and of course the films of Kurosawa. Such poses no obvious threat.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Jun-2019 World View: Investigation reveals Huawei ties with China's military


An investigation by Bloomberg reveals that China's Huawei Technologies
Company has collaborated with China's military in at least 10 research
endeavors spanning artificial intelligence to radio communications.
According to the report, they include a joint effort with the
investigative branch of the Central Military Commission -- the armed
forces’ supreme body -- to extract and classify emotions in online
video comments, and an initiative with the elite National University
of Defense Technology to explore ways of collecting and analyzing
satellite images and geographical coordinates.

The research was done by searching publicly available published
periodicals and online research databases, such as cnki.net, used
mainly by Chinese academics and industry specialists.

There's nothing particularly surprising about this. Even America's
companies sometimes collaborate with the military.

What makes this a hot button issue is that China wants us to believe
the ridiculous claim that Huawei has nothing to do with China's
military, even though China's National Intelligence Law, passed in
2017, requires every company in China, including Huawei, to cooperate
with the military in collecting foreign intelligence, even when doing
so is illegal.

Huawei Founder and CEO Ren Zhengfei, who began his career as a
commander in China's military, is going around the world on a charm
offensive and public relations tour, claiming that Huawei would NEVER
cooperate with the military, and he would rather go to jail than obey
an order from China's military. The fact that Ren Zhengfei believes
that people in the West are so stupid that we might actually believe
this just shows the level of contempt the people in the CCP have for
Westerners.

As I've explained in the past, my personal experience spending five
years implementing board level operating systems for embedded systems
has made it clear that it would be easy for a Huawei engineer with the
right skills to install undetectable backdoors in Huawei chips.
Huawei is also required by China's National Intelligence Law, passed
in 2017, to fully cooperate with China's military in collecting
intelligence, so installation of these undectable backdoors is
required by Chinese law.

China's military is preparing for war in every possible way. By
aggressively subsidizing Huawei's 5G products, the CCP's strategy is
to have as much of the global internet running on Huawei devices as
possible. When China launches its war, China's control of the global
internet will give China's military an enormous advantage.

Huawei is becoming a major hot button issue in the US-China trade
talks, with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping expected to meet and discuss
trade issues at the G20 meeing in Osaka, Japan, that begins on Friday.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been preparing in every possible
way to launch a war with America -- building and deploying numerous
nuclear missile systems with no purpose except to destroy American
cities, bases and aircraft carriers, building illegal bases in the
South China Sea, massive continuing cyberwarfare attacks on the West,
militarizing its fleet of thousands fishing boats -- and it's not even
remotely conceivable that the CCP has not similarly militarized
Huawei.

In fact, by giving China's military control of large parts of the
internet, Huawei is possibly the most important weapon in the CCP's
planned attack on the West. For that reason, Xi Jinping is going to
be desperate to get America's security objections lifted, while Trump
will have to find a way to at least partially appease Xi on Huawei.
One possibility will be for Trump to agree to end its extradition
request Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou, who has been arrested in Canada.
Meng is also the daughter of Ren Zhengfei.

---- Sources:

-- Huawei Personnel Worked With China’s Military on Research Projects
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...h-projects
(BB, 27-Jun-2019)

-- China Academic Journals database
http://new.oversea.cnki.net/index/
(cnki.net)

-- Huawei says it doesn't cooperate with Chinese military — after
report says its employees did
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/27/huawei-d...itary.html
(CNBC, 27-Jun-2019)

-- Huawei says it would never hand data to China's government. Experts
say it wouldn't have a choice
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/05/huawei-w...perts.html
(CNBC, 4-Mar-2019)

-- CNBC Transcript: Ren Zhengfei, Huawei Founder and CEO
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/15/cnbc-tra...d-ceo.html
(CNBC, 14-Apr-2019)

-- Huawei employees reportedly worked on Chinese military research
projects
https://www.cnet.com/news/huawei-employe...-projects/
(CNET, 27-Jun-2019)

---- Related:


** 3-Mar-2019 Canada's planned extradition of Huawei exec raises tensions

http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...385#p44385



** 16-Feb-2019 Canada's arrest of Huawei's Meng Wanzhou requires military response from China
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...077#p44077

** 19-Feb-2019 Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei makes laughable claims about not spying
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?...130#p44130

** 12-Dec-18 World View -- China jails Canadian journalist Michael Kovrig in apparent retaliation for Canada arrest of Meng Wanzhou
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181212

[pbrower2a]

I have a ZTE 'smartphone' -- but I certainly will not be taking it into any polling place!

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Jun-19 World View -- Book Announcement: World View: War between China and Japan - by John J. Xenakis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Book Announcement: World View: War between China and Japan - by John J. Xenakis
  
• Evolution of this book
  
• Three objectives
  
• Table of Contents
  

****
**** Book Announcement: World View: War between China and Japan - by John J. Xenakis
****

Announcing a new book on China by John J. Xenakis

Book Announcement: World View: War Between China and Japan

Subtitle: Why America Must Be Prepared


Book Announcement: World View: War Between China and Japan, by John J. Xenakis

$13.99 -- Buy the paperback on Amazon

$9.99 -- Buy the digital version on Amazon

Click here for Complete Table of Contents

If you buy it, please write a 5-star amazon review. Thanks.

****
**** Evolution of this book
****

For over 15 years, I've been writing about China's preparations for
war with the United States, particularly building and deploying one
advanced nuclear-capable ballistic missile system after another with
no purpose other than to attack and destroy American cities, aircraft
carriers and bases, as well as massive cyberwar. So there's never
been any doubt that China is planning to launch a war against the
United States.

However, I was never entirely comfortable with that prediction, since
there's no apparent hatred of Americans by the Chinese. I've
personally known many Chinese during my life, and they were always
friendly unlike, for example, some Mexicans. Furthermore, Chinese
media has always been critical of US political policies, but there was
no hatred directed at the American people the way there is, for
example, against the Japanese people. In other words, I knew that
China was going to launch a war with the US, but I really didn't know
why.

As a result of research on my book, late last year I had a major
change in views. China does not want war against the United States,
but does want a war of revenge against Japan for the atrocities
committed during WW II. China also wants to invade Taiwan, in order
annex it. China does not want war with the US, but the CCP knows that
it will have no choice, since the US will defend Japan and Taiwan
against China's war of extermination against Japan and war of
annexation against Taiwan.

There's even an alternate explanation for all those missile systems
that China has been developing and deploying for decades. It's
possible that the Chinese believe that just having those missile
systems will serve as a threat to deter the US and to force the US to
remain neutral when China invades Japan and Taiwan. If this is what
the CCP hopes, then it's entirely delusional.

Although I've changed my views about China's motives, the bottom line
is still the same. China has developed these massive nuclear-capable
missile deployments because China expects to use them to attack
the US, and they will. It's just that the motives are different
than I said prreviously.

****
**** Three objectives
****

When I started writing this book, it was to be a book about China's
claims to the South China Sea. I was going to find out who was right,
and who was spinning fake news.

So I researched all of China's history going back thousands of years
and multiple dynasties, as well as the histories of China's
religions -- Confucianism, Daoism, Buddhism, Catholicism, Islam,
Protestantism, and Falun Gong.

I discovered that China had no claim at all to the South China Sea. I
mean, it isn't even arguable. China's claim to Taiwan, whether valid
or not, is at least arguable. But the claim to the South China Sea
isn't even arguable. It is completely nonexistent. It is a complete
hoax.

This means that China's activities in the South China Sea are
criminal, as the Chinese themselves realize. The Chinese know this.
That's why China's president Xi Jinping on September 25, 2015,
blatantly lied to the face of Barack Obama during a joint press
conference on the White House lawn about China's intentions, just as
Adolf Hitler lied to Neville Chamberlain in 1938 about "Peace in our
time." Xi said that there were no plans to militarize the South China
Sea, even though they were actively militarizing it. In July 2016,
the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague issued
a ruling that all China's activities were illegal, reaffirming their
criminal nature.

China blames this and other criminal activities on its "Unequal
Treaties" and its "Century of Humiliation." All of that research from
the first objective is included in this book.

So that evolved to become the second objective of this book. I wanted
to focus on China's history since the 1840 Opium Wars in order to
determine exactly how the unequal treaties occurred, how China was
humiliated over the period of a century, and by whom, and how that led
to China's behavior today.

So I discovered that there were indeed "unequal treaties," especially
the 1860 Treaty of Tianjin and the 1915 Twenty-One Demands that gave
concessions to foreign powers in a way that was humiliating to China.
I followed this history through the late 1800s to the Republican
Revolution of 1911, through World War I and the Versailles betrayal,
into the rise of communism, and then the brutal Sino-Japanese war
(1937-45), in which the Japanese committed brutal atrocities, and in
which the United States saved China from a humiliating defeat.

I also followed China's history after WW II -- the Great Leap Forward
and the Cultural Revolution that killed tens of millions of Chinese
through government-forced starvation, executions, and rioting. Then
there was the bloody Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, where
thousands of peacefully protesting college students were mercilessly
slaughtered by China's military.

So the second objective of the book was achieved, and I had researched
the causes of China's claims to Unequal Treaties and a Century of
Humiliation. All of that research from the second objective is also
included in this book.

However, I began to see the results of the second objective of the
book -- that most of the humiliation was caused by China's own faults.

And that led me to an important and obvious question that I've never
seen discussed anywhere. The West tried to impose the same Unequal
Treaties on Japan as on China. Why didn't Japan also suffer a
"Century of Humiliation"?

That led to the third objective of this book -- to compare Japan
and China. The research from that objective is also included in this
book.

What I discovered is that Japan has repeatedly and consistently
bested China in all areas -- economically, diplomatically, militarily,
and in governance. The bottom line appears to be the fact that
the reason that China suffered a "Century of Humiliation" is because
they were inferior to Japan, time after time.

This is not because the Chinese people are inferior. In fact, the
same Chinese people in Taiwan and colonial Hong Kong have also beaten
the Chinese people in China, by a factor of ten. It's the Chinese
government that's inferior to the governments of Japan, Taiwan and
South Korea. The great and brilliant Chinese people are being led by
corrupt idiots in the CCP.

In fact, it's been a lot worse than that for China. Since World War
II ended, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong all had "economic
miracles," while China's economy languished for decades. Mao's Great
Leap Forward was supposed to prove that Marxism, Communism and
Socialism are better than anything else, but instead it was a total
disaster, causing the deaths of tens of millions through starvation
and execution.

After Mao's disaster totally discredited Marxism, Socialism
and Communism, once Mao died in 1976, Deng Xiaoping was able to
institute an "Opening up and reform" policy that completely reversed
Socialism and opened up China to free markets and capitalism. They
started using the phrase "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics,"
which is laughable because it means "Socialism that's really
capitalism, but we don't want to call it that." However, China
retained its governmental dictatorship, and "Socialism with Chinese
Characteristics" is really the same as Adolf Hitler's "National
Socialism."

So today we have Xi Jinping, a "dictator for life" like Hitler, leader
of a "master race" like Hitler, committing genocide like Hitler,
illegally annexing regions like Hitler, and preparing to launch a
world war like Hitler.

****
**** Table of Contents
****

Table of Contents

Part I. Introduction
Chapter 1. China today
1.1. China since World War II
1.2. Chinese people vs China's government
Chapter 2. Evolution of this book
2.1. Three objectives
2.2. Historical imperative of world wars
2.3. China's preparations for war
2.4. China's historic incompetence compared to Japan
2.5. China's contempt for international law
2.6. Does China deserve sympathy?
Chapter 3. Brief summary of generational eras

Part II. China and Japan since the end of World War II
Chapter 4. China and Japan during and after World War II
Chapter 5. South Korea's postwar economic miracle
Chapter 6. Japan's postwar economic miracle
Chapter 7. Taiwan's postwar economic miracle
Chapter 8. Colonial Hong Kong's postwar economic miracle
Chapter 9. China's postwar economic and governmental disasters
9.1. China's failure at self-government
9.2. The Statistics
9.3. The Great Leap Forward (1958-60}
9.4. Mao's justifications for the Great Leap Forward
9.5. Great Cultural Revolution (1966-76)
9.6. Tiananmen Square Incident (April 5, 1976)
9.7. Tangshan earthquake (July 28, 1976)
9.8. Mao Zedong dies (September 9, 1976)
9.9. Deng Xiaoping's 'Reform and Opening Up' of China (1978-1989)
9.10. Socialism with Chinese Characteristics
9.11. One-Child policy
9.12. Tiananmen Square massacre (June 4, 1989)
9.13. Collapse of the Soviet Union (December 26, 1991)
9.14. China's nationalist anti-Japan propaganda (1989-present)
9.15. Yellow race, black hair, brown eyes, yellow skin
Chapter 10. Rise of China's dictator Xi Jinping
10.1. Biography of Xi Jinping
10.2. Xi Jinping lies about South China Sea (Sept 25, 2015)
10.3. UN Tribunal declares China's South China Sea claims invalid (July 2016)
10.4. Xi Jinping becomes 'the core of the leadership' of the CCP (October 2016)
10.5. Xi Jinping becomes dictator for life (March 20, 2018)
Chapter 11. Xi Jinping adopts harsh, violent, dictatorial policies
11.1. Sources of Xi's policies: Japan and Great Leap Forward
11.2. Document #9 - China's belligerent rejection of Western values (2013)
11.3. Sinicization of religion
11.4. Comparison of Sinicization to Hitler's Kristallnacht
11.5. Genocide and ethnic cleansing of Uighurs in East Turkistan (Xinjiang)
11.6. China's preparations for war
11.7. Role of North Korea and 'denuclearization'
11.8. Japan's and China's views of each other
11.9. Other nations' view of China
11.10. Mutual Defense Treaties of the United States
11.11. China's desire for world hegemony
11.12. The outlook for war between China and Japan
11.13. Winston Churchill vs Neville Chamberlain
11.14. Timing of the war between China and Japan

Part III. China's preparations for war
Chapter 12. China's war preparations through cyber war
12.1. Theft of intellectual property
12.2. Huawei's hack of African Union headquarters
12.3. China's National Intelligence Law (June 27, 2017)
12.4. China's weaponization of Huawei
12.5. Installing a hardware backdoor - Technical details
12.6. Installing an undetectable software backdoor - Technical details
Chapter 13. China's Social Credit Score system
13.1. Development of China's Social Credit Score system
13.2. Huawei's 'big data' cloud database
13.3. China extends its 'social credit score' system to Americans and Westerners
13.4. China's economy -- Huawei the only money making private company
Chapter 14. United Front Work Department (UFWD) and Magic Weapons
14.1. China's biggest resource: billions of expendable people
14.2. History of China's United Front
14.3. United Front Work Department in New Zealand
14.4. China's infiltration of Australia
14.5. United Front Work Department (UFWD) in Australia -- mind control
14.6. University of North Florida closes its Confucius Institute
14.7. Controversy over China's Confucius Institutes
Chapter 15. Belt and Road Initiative and Debt Trap Diplomacy
15.1. Debt Trap Diplomacy
15.2. The secret BRI deals and Debt Trap Diplomacy
15.3. The Belt and Road (BRI) contract in Kenya
Chapter 16. China's claims to the South China Sea
16.1. China's Nine-Dash Map
16.2. China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax
16.3. China's humiliating repudiation by UNCLOS court
16.4. China's claims in South China Sea -- Nationalism, Rejuvenation, Lebensraum
Chapter 17. America's preparation for war
17.1. Will America survive world war with China?
17.2. Will America's young people refuse to fight for their country?
17.3. Preparing yourself and your family for war

Part IV. Theory of War: The phases of World War III
Chapter 18. How do world wars begin in general?
18.1. How World War I started (1914-18) - an unexpected assassination
18.2. How the Israel-Hezbollah war started (2006) - an unexpected abduction
18.3. How World War II started (1937-1945) - someone had to pee
18.4. Do genocide and ethnic cleansing start a world war?
18.5. Neutrality
Chapter 19. The early and middle phases of World War III
19.1. The early days -- neutrality and the salami method
19.2. The euphoria phase: The declaration of war
19.3. The public panic phase: The Regeneracy
19.4. Moral degeneration during a generational crisis war
Chapter 20. World War III in Asia - Forecasts and predictions
20.1. A divided America - is civil war in America possible?
20.2. 'Mass Incidents' and civil war in China
20.3. Chinese Civil war and the United Front
20.4. Civil war in China and its effect on Taiwan
20.5. America and China -- Preparedness for war
20.6. China's military strategy
20.7. World War III lineup: 'The Allies' vs 'The Axis'

Part V. China's ancient dynasties
Chapter 21. Reference list of China's dynasties
Chapter 22. China's population
Chapter 23. Early civilizations of the world
23.1. Peking Man (700,000 BC)
Chapter 24. Earliest dynasties
24.1. Xia dynasty (c. 2070-1600 BC)
24.2. Shang Dynasty (c.1500 - 1050 BC)
Chapter 25. Zhou dynasty (1050 - 221 BC)
25.1. Western (1070-771 BC) and Eastern (770-221 BC) Zhou dynasties
25.2. Eastern Zhou: China's Spring and Autumn period (770-476 BC)
25.3. Eastern Zhou: China's Warring States period (481/403 - 221 BC)
Chapter 26. Qin (Chin, Ch'in) Dynasty (221-206 BC)
Chapter 27. Han Dynasty (206 BC - 220 AD)
27.1. The Silk Road
27.2. Invention of paper
27.3. Yellow Turban uprising - 184 AD
27.4. End and legacy of the Han Dynasty
Chapter 28. Sui Dynasty (581-618 AD) and Korea's Goguryeo Kingdom
28.1. Reunification of Northern and Southern China
28.2. Defeat by Korea's Goguryeo Empire (37-688) and Battle of Salsu River (612 AD)
28.3. The Goguryeo Stele

Part VI. Religious and cultural teachings in China
Chapter 29. China's harsh 'Sinicization' policy of religions (April 2018)
29.1. Number of religious believers in China
29.2. Equivalence of Islam, Christianity and Buddhism to CCP
29.3. CCP administrative control of religion
29.4. CCP attitude toward religion
29.5. Pope's betrayal of Chinese Catholics
29.6. Imperialist China view of religion
29.7. Chinese government attitude towards non-indigenous religions
29.8. Rules governing Christian Churches in China
Chapter 30. Sun Tzu / The Art of War (500 BC)
30.1. The Art of War
30.2. Sima Qian's biography of Sun Tzu
Chapter 31. Confucius (551-479 BC)
31.1. Confucius sayings and aphorisms
31.2. Confucius Analects
31.3. Confucius theology: Tian and the Mandate from Heaven
31.4. Confucius theology: Maintaining stability and harmony
31.5. Relevance of Confucius and Sun Tzu to today's world
31.6. North Korea denuclearization - deception and manipulation
Chapter 32. Laozi (Lao Tzu) (-533 BC) and Daoism
32.1. Confucians vs Daoists
32.2. Description of the Dao de jing
32.3. Excerpts from the Dao de jing
Chapter 33. Buddhism
33.1. Justification for Buddhism in China
33.2. Secret Societies
33.3. White Lotus Society and Red Turban Rebellion (1351-68)
33.4. White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1804)
33.5. Tibetan Buddhism
33.6. Qigong and Falun Gong
Chapter 34. Christianity -- Catholicism and Protestantism
34.1. Catholicism
34.2. Catholicism and Taiwan
34.3. Protestantism - Taiping Rebellion (1850-64)

Part VII. China's 'Century of Humiliation'
Chapter 35. China today: Xi Jinping's view of the Century of Humiliation
35.1. Xi Jinping's speech to National Peoples' Congress (March 2018)
35.2. Do the Chinese have only themselves to blame?
Chapter 36. China and Japan prior to 1840
36.1. The 'Middle Kingdom' and China's tributary system
36.2. European trade with China 1557-1838
36.3. Japan's Tokugawa era or Edo era (1603-1868)
Chapter 37. Clash of civilizations: China vs Japan after the Opium Wars (1840-70)
37.1. The 'bad marriage' of China and Japan
37.2. First Opium War (1839-42)
37.3. Taiping Rebellion (1852-64) and the rise of Marxism
37.4. Japanese view of China's Opium War
37.5. American Commodore Matthew Perry comes to Japan
37.6. Second Opium War (1856-60)
37.7. The 1860 Treaty of Tianjin (Tientsin) and international law
37.8. Consequences today of the 1860 Treaty of Tianjin (Tientsin)
37.9. Tianjin Massacre of Catholic orphanage (1870)
Chapter 38. China and Japan prior to World War I (1870-1912)
38.1. European scramble for East Asia (Late 1800s)
38.2. The Joseon Dynasty in Korea (1392-1910)
38.3. Imjin Wars and Battle of Myongnyang (Myeongnyang), October 26, 1597
38.4. Japan's revolutionary social, political and economic changes
38.5. Japan's relations with Korea, China, Russia, Britain and France
38.6. First Sino-Japanese war - 1894-95
38.7. Significance of the First Sino-Japanese war (1894-95)
38.8. Treaty of Shimonoseki on April 17, 1895
38.9. Open-Door Policy (1899-1900)
38.10. Boxer Rebellion (1900)
38.11. Anglo-Japanese Alliance (1902, 1905, 1911)
38.12. Russo-Japanese War (1905)
38.13. Japan's annexation of Korea (1905, 1910)
38.14. Sun Yat-Sen and the Republican Revolution (1911)
Chapter 39. China and Japan during World War I (1910-1919)
39.1. China versus Japan at beginning of 1910s decade
39.2. Sun Yat-Sen versus Yuan Shikai
39.3. European and Asian alliances prior to World War I
39.4. China and Japan in World War I
39.5. Twenty-One Demands - May 9, 1915 - China's National Humiliation Day
Chapter 40. The aftermath of World War I
40.1. New Culture Movement (1915-1920)
40.2. The Versailles Betrayal (1919)
40.3. The May Fourth Movement (1919)
40.4. The Washington Naval Arms Limitation Conference (1921-22)

Part VIII. China turns to Communism
Chapter 41. China's alignment with Soviet Russia against the West
41.1. Historic relationship between Russia and China
41.2. Aftermath of the May 4th Movement
41.3. China's disillusionment with 'imperialism' and the West
41.4. Details of the Versailles betrayal and return of Shandong
41.5. Bolshevik government renounces privileges and interests in China
Chapter 42. Nationalists vs Communists - Chiang Kai-shek vs Mao Zedong -- 1920-1949
42.1. Warlord era (1916-1927)
42.2. The rise of communism
42.3. The 1927 Nanking Incident (3/24/1927) and Battle of Shanghai
42.4. Aftermath of the Nanking incident (1927) -- assigning blame
42.5. Japan invades Manchuria -- the Mukden incident (1931)
42.6. The rise of Japan's militarism
42.7. The Soviet Communist Republic of China
42.8. Mao Zedong's Long March (1934-35)
Chapter 43. Sino-Japanese War (1937-45) - World War II in Asia
43.1. Japan's conquest of Manchuria (1931)
43.2. Unit 731 - chemical and biological warfare (1936-45)
43.3. Marco Polo Bridge Incident (July 7-9, 1937) and Sino-Japanese War
43.4. Aftermath of the Marco Polo Bridge incident
43.5. Battle of Nanking / Rape of Nanking (December 13, 1937)
43.6. Regeneracy and the United Front
43.7. The United Front and Hong Kong
43.8. American support for China before Pearl Harbor (1937-41)

Part IX. Appendix: China's neighbors on the South China Sea
Chapter 44. History of Vietnam
44.1. The earliest settlers -- the Sa Huynh
44.2. The Cham people and the Champa Kingdom
44.3. North Vietnam versus South Vietnam (Champa Kingdom)
44.4. Unity and disunion in Vietnam
44.5. French conquest of Indochina (1865-85)
44.6. America's Vietnam war
44.7. China's Vietnam war
Chapter 45. History of Philippines
45.1. China's history with the Philippines
45.2. Ancient history of the Philippines
45.3. Philippines Spanish colonial period (1521-1898)
45.4. Philippines under American control (1898-1946) and Japanese occupation (1941-45)
45.5. Modern generational history of the Philippines republic
Chapter 46. Brief generational history of Cambodia
Chapter 47. Brief generational history of Thailand
Chapter 48. Brief generational history of Myanmar (Burma)

Part X. The End
Chapter 49. About Generational Theory
49.1. Intuitive description of generational theory
49.2. Use of GenerationalDynamics.com web site
49.3. Theoretical core for Generational Dynamics
Chapter 50. Leon Festinger and Cognitive Dissonance
Chapter 51. About John J. Xenakis
Chapter 52. Acknowledgments

Part XI. Footnotes / References


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Japan, Generational Theory,
Generational Theory Book Series

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