Generational Dynamics World View

[pbrower2a]

(03-24-2020, 06:59 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 24-Mar-2020 World View: History of wild stock market swings

The DJIA increased 11.37% on Tuesday, and commentators are pointing
out that this was the largest increase since 1933.

That's true, according to my DJIA historical page:

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/w...i.djia.htm

The following is a list of all the days when the DJIA increased by
more than 10%:

Code:

Date              DJIA (Change)   (% of trend)    
----------------- --------------  ----------------
Wed 1929-10-30    258.47(+12.34%) (171% of 150.40)
Mon 1931-06-22    145.82(+11.90%) ( 89% of 162.13)
Tue 1931-10-06     99.34(+14.87%) ( 60% of 164.30)
Wed 1932-09-21     75.16(+11.36%) ( 43% of 171.68)
Wed 1933-03-15     62.10(+15.34%) ( 35% of 175.46)
Wed 1987-10-21   2027.85(+10.15%) ( 95% of 2128.8)
Mon 2008-10-13   9387.61(+11.08%) (169% of 5554.3)
Tue 2008-10-28   9065.12(+10.88%) (162% of 5564.8)
Tue 2020-03-24  20704.91(+11.37%) (220% of 9371.5)

And the following is a list of all the days when the DJIA decreased
by more than 10%:

Code:

Date              DJIA (Change)   (% of trend)    
----------------- --------------  ----------------
Mon 1929-10-28    260.64(-13.47%) (173% of 150.36) Black Monday
Tue 1929-10-29    230.07(-11.73%) (152% of 150.38)
Mon 1931-10-05     86.48(-10.73%) ( 52% of 164.28)
Mon 1987-10-19   1738.74(-22.61%) ( 81% of 2128.2)
Mon 2020-03-16  20188.52(-12.93%) (215% of 9362.1)

So the wild swings that we've been seeing recently are not
good news, but are harbingers of a financial crisis, and possibly
a major panic and financial crisis.

And as long-time readers are well aware, the stock market is in a
bubble.  Take a look at the "% of trend" column for two days
in March 2020.  The DJIA is far above its trend value of around
9370.  This shows how huge the stock market bubble is.

[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]Market Summary > Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI[/color]
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.87)]21,636.78[/color] −915.39 (4.06%)
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]Mar 27, 5:12 PM EDT · [color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)][color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]Disclaimer[/color][/color][/color]

[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]Do you want to bet?  [/color]

[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.62)]This looks like a sucker's rally to me. When the stock market takes a tumble for causes related to absurd P/E ratios, an inverted yield curve, and inadequate savings, the fall of the value of securities in general takes the path of a falling knife. Maybe the falling knife takes a short upward bounce after it hits a jutting object, but after that short bounce, down it goes again. Maybe day-traders can profit in such a market, but the only others who can profit are short-sellers.[/color]

[John J. Xenakis]

** 29-Mar-2020 World View: Releasing prisoners

Guest Wrote:> One thing to consider – the prisons are releasing nonviolent
> prisoners early. Many of them are people who have drug habits or
> are in jail for burglary. Many police come into close contact
> with the public while making arrests, so more of them will call in
> sick. Shops are closed down and still full of whatever they sell,
> but no one is watching the store. Guess what will occur to
> someone recently released?

You're right. As if there aren't enough problems, releasing prisoners
is extremely dangerous.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 29-Mar-2020 World View: Fauci shocks everyone by predicting 100K to 200K deaths

Appearing on CNN on Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci is predicting 100,000 to
200,000 deaths from Covid-19.

Fauci is today the leading American superstar expert on Covid-19,
considered the most authoritative voice in the nation. He is Director
of National Institute Of Allergy And Infectious Diseases. He appears
on television frequently, and he's part of president Donald Trump's
coronavirus task force, and he appears alongside Trump almost every
day in Trump's coronavirus press conferences, which are becoming "must
see tv."

Fauci was asked: "How many cases do you think the U.S. will reach? A
million cases, 10 million cases? Or are these -- we -- or do we not
even have any idea?"

Quote:> "You've got be realistic, and you've got to understand
> that you don't make the timeline, the virus makes the
> timeline. ...

> There are things called models. And when someone creates a model,
> they put in various assumptions. And the model is only as good and
> as accurate as your assumptions. And whenever the modelers come
> in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario.

> Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I have never
> seen a model of the diseases that I have dealt where the
> worst-case scenario actually came out. They always overshoot. ...

> I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, I would say between
> 100,000 and 200,000 [deaths]. But I don't want to be held to
> that. ... I mean, we're going to have millions of
> cases."

Fauci was trying to be reassuring, but when he said "I don't want to
be held to that," it's because even he doesn't believe what he's
saying.

There are 330 million Americans, and obviously there are going to be
many, many cases -- probably around 200 million cases. This would
lead to 2-4 million deaths, as I showed in my article comparing the
Covid-19 pandemic to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.

** 22-Mar-20 World View -- Today's Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic vs 1918 Spanish Flu
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200322


As I showed in my article, today we're on exactly the same path as the
Spanish Flu pandemic, and there won't be any divergence until a
vaccine is deployed, which won't happen for over a year.

Those who doubt this should at least remember the following:

• New York city is the US epicenter right now, but there are new
  major hot spots in New Orleans, Detroit and Chicago, and they'll
  spread to other cities and towns.
  
  
• Once the harsh restrictions are lifted, which everyone seems to
  expect with a month or so, there will be a resurgence as infections
  spread again.
  
  
• The spread of Covid-19 may slow in warm summer weather, but the
  weather will be cold again in the fall, resulting in a "second
  wave."
  
  
• Just as the ordinary seasonal flu mutates every year, requiring a
  new vaccine every year, the Covid-19 virus is likely to mutate, with
  the result that survivors of the first wave will be sick again in the
  second wave in the fall.
  
  
• Other countries are not prepared to handle Covid-19 as well as the
  US and the West. The virus will sweep through countries in Africa,
  Central America and Asia soon, and then again in the second wave in
  the fall. These massive infections will seed outbreaks in other
  countries, including Western countries.

Guest 5 Wrote:> While I think that we’ll be okay if we’re talking a shutdown of
> just a couple more weeks, I have to say that I hope President
> Trump *doesn’t* listen to the “experts” who are telling him a 3-4
> month shutdown, because there’s no way society survives that in
> exchange for $1,000 or so a person.

This is absolutely correct, and it's the other side of the problem.

One goal is fewer deaths from the virus, and the other goal is fewer
deaths from starvation. Unfortunately, these two goals are in
conflict.

So Trump's policies are going to have to balance the risks from these
two goals.

Companies like Amazon, Kroger, CVS and Walgreen are hiring hundreds of
thousands of workers. This is tiny compared to the tens of millions
of job losses, but it begins a trend for how the "real economy" (as
opposed to the stock market) will begin to recover.

So we're looking at millions of Covid-19 deaths, tens of millions of
job losses, and hundreds of millions of Covid-19 infections. Those
are stark figures, and there is no possible Trump policy that will
satisfactorily handle the situation.

-- US could see millions of coronavirus cases and 100,000 or more
deaths, Fauci says
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/...index.html
(CNN, 29-Mar-2020)

-- CNN Transcript
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/2...tu.01.html
(CNN, 29-Mar-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 29-Mar-2020 World View: Regeneracy

Guest Wrote:>   Wishful thinking, John. You said it yourself, "All governments
>   fail." Why should America be any different? I love my country,
>   always have, always will, but I see little around me to give me
>   hope. Too few are alive today to save a sinking ship.

When did I say "All governments fail"?  What was the context?  I
cannot find any record of that remark, although I suppose that all
governments must fail at some point.

Are you guys blind?  Can't you see what's going on?

For the last 15 years, I've been writing that a "regeneracy event"
would occur that would (like the Pearl Harbor attack and the Bataan
Death March) unite the country behind whoever is president at the
time.  During the Obama administration, Obama opponents were
infuriated by the suggestion.  Then during the Trump administration,
Trump opponents were infuriated by the suggestion.

I had expected that event to be some sort of missile attack, but I
sure never expected anything like Covid-19.  Nonetheless, here we are.
Two months ago, the Democrats were impeaching the president.  Today,
they're cooperating with the president.  Some Democrats are even
saying nice things about Trump.

The unity is incomplete, but it's a clear trend.  So what I predicted
is happening right before your eyes.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 30-Mar-2020 World View: Nature documentaries

Guest Wrote:> I can't think of a current TV program on that didn't include some
> form of virtue signalling. Please list a couple. Even nature
> documentaries I have recently watched have heaped entirely false
> praise on African governments for their efforts at wildlife
> protection, which is laughable.

Are you kidding? Nature documentaries? Who is going to sponsor a
nature documentary? The only groups I can think of are environmental
and climate change activists. So OF COURSE a nature documentary is
going to take far left positions on the environment.

Try "Last Man Standing." It's a situation comedy that mocks
virtue signalling.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 30-Mar-2020 World View: American Civil War

Guest Wrote:> When this country "regenerates" , will the country be reborn as a
> Spanish speaking third world country? People can say race and
> culture don't matter, but they do. Language and culture are what
> bind a nation. We have largely lost that. When AOC's staff shows
> up at public events sporting t-shirts which say "The future of
> America is Latino" what I am supposed to think? What will my
> future look like? Not good.

The "regeneracy" in generational theory refers to the regeneracy of
civic unity behind the leader for the first time since the end of the
preceding crisis war. The regeneracy occurs when some event occurs
that presents an existential threat to a country or its way of life.
At that point, political enemies put politics aside, and unite to
fight the existential threat. That's the trend we're seeing now
over the coronavirus threat.

In "ordinary times," the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package
would never have passed. But last week, it passed the Senate 98-0.
That's an example of the trend towards the regeneration of civic unity.

As for AOC, she's the stupidest person on the national scene today.
She's so stupid that the only people stupider than she is are the
people who believe her.

Guest Wrote:> America has a string of failed states below it in Latin
> America. This is a form gangrene that we have allowed to spread
> across our open borders. Is it racist to point that out? I don't
> believe so. No rational person would. I see a country shackled by
> political correctness and drowning.

Once again, are you completely blind to what's going on? Two months
ago, when Trump was being impeached, the country was shackled by
political correctness. But then the coronavirus hit, and presented
an existential threat to the nation which was enough to begin
the regeneracty trend -- the regeneration of civic unity to
fight the existential threat.

a refugee Wrote:> I have read two of your books and bits and pieces of the Fourth
> Turning, John. I think your analysis is much better, but sometimes
> I think you miss the forest for the trees.

> I strongly believe that America has reached the end of the line. I
> would compare multi-cultural, multi-ethnic America today to the
> Ottoman Empire of 1914. The empire worked until it didn't. The
> ethnic differences became to great and the first world war didn't
> unite the Ottoman Empire, it destroyed it. The Armenians
> can tell you how that ended.

The concept of a new American civil war is pure fantasy, as I've written
many times. I've studied probably hundreds of civil wars throughout
history, and there are certain things that always precede a civil war,
but which are completely missing in America today.

Since you were kind enough to provide a historical example, I will
address that directly.

The Ottoman Empire was, obviously, an "empire." At its height, Turkey
was in control of Greece, Bulgaria, Egypt, Hungary, Macedonia,
Romania, Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, some of Arabia, and a
considerable amount of the North African coastal strip.

So the Ottoman empire collapsed, meaning that Turkey no longer controlled
all those other countries. But Turkey itself survived.

So this part of your analogy completely collapses. America does not
have any similar empire. Even in the case of Puerto Rico, no war
would be required. If the Puerto Ricans simply voted to become
independent, they would become independent. So this comparison
to the Ottoman Empire is ridiculous.

The other part of your analogy is the Armenian genocide. This can be
viewed as an ethnic civil war between Turks and Armenians. After it
was over, Turkey still survived.

There is absolutely no sign today of an ethnic civil war between
Latinos and -- who? It would have to be American citizens, including
many Latinos who would be on the side of America. Even if there were
some kind of clash, it would be meaningless in the long run.

Guest Wrote:> Those who have raised their voices in protest have been
> silenced.

One can only wish.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 30-Mar-2020 World View: Revolution

GTFOH Wrote:> According to the Nikkei, over 85% of small businesses in China -
> which employ 80% of China's population - expect to run out of cash
> within three months, and a third expect the cash to be all gone
> within a month.

> That will be us in six weeks.

> WW3 isn't coming, revolution is.

China is a good example of a country that IS headed for civil war.
China has a millennia-long history of massive anti-government
rebellions and coups, and the last 30 years have seen thousands
of "mass events" that the security forces have to put down. There is
no similar history in the United States.

On the other hand, there was a lot of far-left violence in the 1930s,
and we're seeing a resurgence of that kind of violence, for example
through the Democratic Party militia ANTIFA. However, this violence
will not lead to civil war.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 30-Mar-2020 World View: Civil war

Guest Wrote:> I wish I could share your optimism, John. I really do. But All I
> see around me is anti-American hatred from Latino immigrants and
> even 2nd generation anchor babies who have grown up on welfare and
> be given everything for free. I have been practicing social
> distancing from them since the 1990s. I see CW breaking out
> soon.

If you're going to make a claim like that, you really are obligated to
provide some real evidence, beyond your personal feelings. Are Latino
newspapers threatening a civil war? Is there a nationwide Latino
organization preparing for a civil war? Are there any Latino militias
training people to fight whites?

In fact, you've got the logic of the situation completely backwards.
In countries where there's an ethnic civil war, it's preceded by
decades of intermittent violence triggered by massive discrimination
and marginalization of the ethnic group.

But you're painting a completely different picture -- "Latino
immigrants and even 2nd generation anchor babies who have grown up on
welfare and be given everything for free." This is the complete
opposite of the conditions that lead to civil war.

The logic of civil war is that a poor ethnic group is kept in poverty
by a wealthy ethnic group, and the poor people protest with sporadic
violence, and the government starts calling them "terrorists" and
locks them up, beats them and tortures them, leading eventually to
civil war.

But nothing like that is happening in America. And the Latinos who
are getting everything for free are smart enough to understand that
attacking the government in response to a coronavirus outbreak that's
an existential threat to the whole country is not going to get them
back all their free stuff. To the contrary, the concept of
"regeneracy" and uniting behind the leader applies to them as well,
and they'll also help in fighting the common enemy.

So if you claim that Latinos are going to launch a new civil war, then
you have an obligation to provide real evidence of planning for such a
civil war. Not only have you NOT provided any such evidence, I've
given you several reasons why such plans do not exist and don't even
make sense.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 31-Mar-2020 World View: Civil war in China

zzazz Wrote:> Is it official? Does GD predict civil war in China? Is there a
> time frame on that or is it anytime in the next 1000
> years?

I assume that, as usual, your intent is to mock me, since I've written
on this subject hundreds of times in the last 15 years.

In the unlikely event that you know enough to pick out China on a map,
and you're actually interested in this subject, my suggestion is that
you buy my book:

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019
Paperback: 331 pages, over 200 source references, $13.99
https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

The direct answer to your question is as follows: China has had
numerous mass anti-government rebellions (civil wars) at regular
intervals throughout its millennia of history.

The last two of these massive rebellions were the the Taiping
Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49) -- and
both of these rebellions began in Guangzho province and spread north.
China is overdue for a new massive civil war, and any sort of economic
setback could be the trigger. The CCP leadership are very well aware
of this history, and are extremely paranoid about it.

In terms of timing, the 58-Year Rule applies. A new generational
crisis civil war begins at the earliest 58 years after the genocidal
climax of the preceding crisis war. The probability of a war in year
58 is low, say around 20%. But each year after that, probability goes
up a little that a new war will begin in that year. So it might be
21% in year 59, 22% in year 60, and so forth. It's extremely rare for
a delay past year 80. (The specific values of the percentages would
require a bunch more research.)

So for China, year 58 is 2007. This year, 2020, is year 71. So the
probability for this year is getting pretty high.

So I hope that gives you all the information that you wanted.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 31-Mar-2020 World View: West Side Story

Higgenbotham Wrote:> If the world gets even smaller than that (and quickly), and the
> resource base being squabbled over is profoundly local and
> conditions are profoundly variable between localities, war will
> not be organized on a global or national scale. That's what I
> think is going to happen and who is at each other's throats will
> be highly variable across the US. But I can see why others would
> disagree with that assessment.

What you're describing doesn't sound like a civil war to me.

It sounds like West Side Story:

Quote:> "When you're a Jet,
> You're the swingin'est thing.
> Little boy, you're a man;
> Little man, you're a king!

> The Jets are in gear,
> Our cylinders are clickin'!
> The Sharks'll steer clear,
> 'Cause ev'ry Puerto Rican
> 'S a lousy chicken!

> Here come the Jets
> Like a bat out of hell—
> Someone gets in our way
> Someone don't feel so well!

> Here come the Jets!
> Little world, step aside,
> Better go underground,
> Better run, better hide!

> We're drawin' the line,
> So keep your noses hidden!
> We're hangin' a sign
> Says "Visitors forbidden,"
> And we ain't kiddin!

> Here come the Jets—
> Yeah! And we're gonna beat
> Every last buggin' gang
> On the whole buggin' street!"

[Tim Randal Walker]

Regarding the 58 year rule....


By year 80 almost everyone with adult memories of the previous Crisis are gone.

By year 80, those who were kids during the previous Crisis would now be a rapidly shrinking pool of old people.

[Tim Randal Walker]

If the USA was on the verge of a physically violent civil war (as opposed to a cold civil war/internal Cold War) why haven't we seen something comparable to Bleeding Kansas?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 02-Apr-2020 World View: 58 / 80 Year Rule

(04-01-2020, 11:17 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: > Regarding the 58 year rule....

> By year 80 almost everyone with adult memories of the previous
> Crisis are gone.

> By year 80, those who were kids during the previous Crisis would
> now be a rapidly shrinking pool of old people.

That's a good point, and a good way of looking at it.

After year 58, the generations of survivors of the previous crisis
war are all retired, and power is turned over to the younger generations
that grew up after the war.

However, after year 58, they're still around, and they can still wield
influence, if not direct control. However, they wield less and less
influence each year, as they die off.

By year 80, they would almost all be dead or doddering, so they would
have no influence left.

And that's why a new crisis war almost always occurs 58-80 years
after the climax of the preceding crisis war.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 02-Apr-2020 World View: Deflationary spiral

Guest Wrote:> John, I have tried to read between the lines and I'm not good at
> it sometimes. Do you think we are still headed to an economic
> depression instead of uncontrolled inflation? Will we need
> millions of dollars to buy the rare loaf of bread in the coming
> months or will the bread be available but no one has any dough to
> buy it?

No, we're in a classic deflationary spiral, like the 1930s.

Even people who have money, or are given money by the government,
don't want to spend it, and so they're not pushing goods prices up.

Businesses that have money, or are receiving it from the government,
are not competing for employees, and so they're not pushing labor
prices up.

The velocity of money, which has been falling for 13 years because of
the 2007-2008 financial crisis, will plummet even further. This means
that money provided by the government in stimulus packages will
remain in bank accounts, rather than be used to buy goods beyond the
absolute necessities, so the prices of new tv sets and other things
will continue to fall, resulting in price deflation.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 02-Apr-2020 World View: Purpose of lockdowns

Here are some responses to a UK web site reader:

Quote:> "I’m finding these lockdowns increasingly morally
> objectionable. So far I cannot point to one country where deaths
> rates are significantly higher than normal. I think Germany and
> Netherlands show the best example where this virus is only
> slightly more deadly than flu - by the end of this we will look
> back and say it probably was the same as flu. Except, that is the
> process we destroyed our economies and caused untold
> hardship."

At some level I sympathize with what you're saying, though for a
different reason. It's far from clear to me that the lockdowns will
do any good in preventing the worst. So why bother?

But the numbers really are worse. OK, if a million people get the
seasonal flu, then perhaps 1,000 people will die. If a million people
get Covid-19, then perhaps 5,000 people will die. So you might say
that's not enough difference to shut down the entire economy.

But the HUGE difference is in infection rate. If a person with
seasonal flu attends a big party, if he takes reasonable precautions
then he won't infect anyone. He won't be responsible for killing
anyone.

But if a person with Covid-19 attends a big party, then even with
reasonable precautions he may infect a dozen people, and one or two
may die. Hence the need for social distancing.

So the big difference is not in the death rate (which is bad enough),
but is in the infection rate. I strongly urge you to watch the
following youtube documentary:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c

** 1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c

This is the scenario that today's officials are trying to avoid.

The thing to focus on when you watch the documentary is the "social
distancing" remediations that were used at that time, especially
during the second wave in the fall of 2018. These are almost
identical to the lockdowns being imposed today. However, did they do
any good? If I understand what the documentary is saying, then the
lockdowns failed in every city but San Francisco, where they were
imposed early and strictly enforced.

Incidentally, The stock market today is much worse off than it was in
1918. At that time, the S&P 500 P/E ratio was around 8, far below the
historic average of 14, indicating an undervalued market. Today, the
P/E ratio is above 20, indicating a substantial stock market bubble.

Quote:> "This seems especially true in emerging markets, I am
> very concerned with countries like India. How do we access the
> potential for violence and revolution?"

I think you're absolutely right. Modi's policy about migrant workers
in Delhi appears to be a complete disaster, and is causing a mass
migration similar to what happened in the 1947 Partition War. I do
not expect this to end well.

Quote:> "The comments boards in the UK still generally support
> the government, maybe they get away with declaring victory and
> move on, and the official inquiry into the debacle only comes out
> in a few years."

When a country faces an existential crisis, then the people put
politics aside and unite behind the government to fight for the
survival of the society and its way of life. That concept usually
applies to a war, but many people see the Covid-19 crisis as an
existential crisis, and so support the government.

Quote:> "In emerging markets where people are starving or
> being beaten, etc, this may not fly. Any view?"

Enforced lockdowns are really not possible where there is crowding and
poverty. A person who has to work every day to feed his family will
not be able to "self-isolate," but will have to go out and work, even
though it risks infection. And in a densely populated area, social
distancing won't really be possible.

Quote:> "How is Iran’s burn through working? I think Sweden
> and Brazil and doing something similar - any view on numbers
> there?"

Different places are employing different strategies. In the United
States, there are lockdowns in some states but not in others. I
believe that there are cultural differences.

• In some places, social distancing is occurring with little or
  no prompting, as in Sweden. But I expect that to change as the
  numbers of infections and deaths increase. We're approaching summer
  which may (or may not) slow the spread of Covid-19, so maybe Sweden
  will be able to hold off until fall, or maybe not.
  
  
• In Brazil, as I understand it, this is also the peak of the dengue
  fever season, and the two diseases are overwhelming hospitals. With
  winter approaching, this situation could worsen considerably.
  Bolsonaro seems to be betting that he can ignore the problem. I don't
  have the feeling this will end well. However, the silver lining is
  that Brazil's experience may provide the world with data on how things
  will go in the north in the fall, when the second wave strikes in
  winter.
  
  
• Other places, like the UK and US, are reasonably compliant with
  the lockdown guidance, and minimal enforcement is required.
  
  
• China, Iran and Russia are doing everything possible to hide the
  number of infections and deaths, and to find a way to blame the entire
  crisis on the US. In all three cases, it's believed that the actual
  number of cases is many times higher than is being reported. In
  China, numerous reports indicate that doctors are forced to re-label
  Covid-19 cases as something else. However, in the last week, China
  has shut down all movie theaters (again), and yesterday declared a
  total lockdown for Jia county in Henan province, which is north of
  Hubei and adjacent to it.
  
  
• In Iran, it's impossible to tell what going on since the
  government is lying about numbers, so the only information is
  anecdotal. However, satellite photos are showing huge mass graves,
  and Iran's state tv is saying that "millions could die."
  
  
• There are other places, like crowded refugee camps and crowded
  megacities, where local attempts will be made for "social distancing,"
  but the whole population might be quickly infected.

So that's a quick trip around the coronavirus world. Once again, I
suggest that you listen to the youtube documentary, and pay particular
attention to the containment, remediation and social distancing steps
that were taken, and how they're the same as what's happening today.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) presented an analysis regarding Covid 19-it looks like Brazil and India are simply going to be disasters.

BTW, I understand that the outbreak aboard the aircraft carrier was preceded by a visit to Vietnam.....

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-Apr-2020 World View: 58-Year Rule

zzazz Wrote:> US civil war ended in 1865 and no follow on civil war yet
> French revolution ended 1799 and no follow on civil war yet
> English Civil War ended 1651 and no follow on civil war yet

> I think my skepticism is entirely reasonable.

More accurately, the 58-Year Rule predicts that a country will have a
new generational crisis war 58-80 years after the climax of the
preceding crisis war. If the preceding crisis war was a civil war
involving two ethnic or racial groups within the same country, then
it's very likely that the next crisis war will be a civil war between
the same ethnic or racial groups.

Applying this to your three examples:

• The American civil war was not an ethnic civil war, but was
  actually a geographic war. There might have been a new North-South
  clash in the 1930s, but it was mooted by the Nazis and Imperial Japan,
  and the next crisis war was World War II.
  
  
• France actually had a very bloody civil war in 1871, called the
  Paris Commune.
  
  
• The successor to the English civil war was the War of the Spanish
  Succession (1701-09), where England was fighting France, and Scotland
  was an ally of France, so in many ways it was a partial replay of the
  English civil war.

In the case of China, there have been regular massive rebellions
(civil wars) at regular intervals for millennia. It is unthinkable
that the current Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which is slaughtering
and enslaving Uighurs, which is torturing and killing Buddhists and
Christians, has somehow figured out the formula to become immune to a
new massive rebellion. It is 100% certain, and only the timing is in
question, but it won't be long now.

I've looked at literally thousands of situations in the last 17 years,
and I've found the 58-Year Rule to be highly reliable.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-Apr-2020 World View: 'Ride it Out' (Herd Immunity) strategy controversy

There is a lot of controvery today over the economic shutdown, the
harsh lockdown and social distancing rules that are being laid down
today. In America, these mitigation rules have forced the closure of
millions of businesses, many of which will never be able to reopen,
and have forced job losses for tens of millions of Americans, many of
whom will no longer be able to provide for their families.

Many people are saying that the cure is worse than the disease -- more
people are going to suffer and die because of the economic shutdown
that would ever die from from Covid-19. These people say we should
just "ride it out," and just let the virus run its course. Even if
more people die, the whole crisis will end more quickly.

Many people support this policy, which is called the "herd immunity"
strategy. Both the UK and US governments have considered the "herd
immunity" strategy. Advocates say that this strategy will actually
save a lot of lives, because even if more people die from Covid-19,
fewer people will die from the economic destruction that the
mitigation strategies are currently being used.

However, there are also people on the other side. Earlier today I was
watching MSNBC, and people were criticizing Trump for killing people
by issuing guidelines but not enforcing a harsh nationwide lockdown.

I should begin by saying I'm not an advocate of any particular policy
for handling this crisis. I consider myself to be a "weather
forecaster," and using the Generational Dynamics methodology to
provide weather forecasts. As with all issues, I simply provide a
generational analysis of what is happening and what is going to
happen, just as a weather forecaster might predict a rainy day or
sunny day, without taking sides on whether rain is good or bad. The
reason why many people hate and shun me (and why many other people
follow me every day) is because my weather forecasts always turn out
to be right.

At Donald Trump's March 31 press briefing by members of the
Coronavirus Task Force he directly addressed the controvery. One
objective of that press conference was to hear from Anthony Fauci, the
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases,
who is currently considered to be superstar expert on the coronavirus,
and who appears on numerous tv shows giving expert opinion.

During one of his tv interviews, Fauci had said that even with the
current mitigation efforts, 100,000-200,000 people were going to die,
but without them over 2 million people would die and the health care
system would be overwhelmed. These numbers shocked a lot of people,
and created numerous media headlines, and so Fauci and another expert
Deborah Birx, were at the press briefing to explain them, and to
explain the concept of "flattening the curve."

So during the press briefing, Birx showed a lot of slides and graphs
and explained what was going to happen with and without mitigation.

The full press conference and slide presentations can be viewed here:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2TRmlsmMNU

3/31/20: Members of the Coronavirus Task Force Hold a Press Briefing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2TRmlsmMNU

Transcript:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-sta...iefing-15/

I should add that I've seen dozens of experts on tv since then, and
they didn't contradict Fauci's numbers, which had been supported in
detail by Birx. Attitudes are changing very rapidly, and in the last
three days, these numbers are no longer considered "shocking," but are
now "the common wisdom."

In his comments, Trump directly addressed the "ride it out" strategy,
and he explained at length why the US administration has rejected that
strategy. He also mentioned that the UK government considered the
same strategy and rejected it. Here are some excerpts from what Trump
said:

Quote:> "They’re very sobering, yeah. When you see 100,000
> people, that’s a — and that’s at a minimum number. ... [T]hat
> would be, you know, a lot of lives taking place over a relatively
> short period of time.

> But think of what would have happened if we didn’t do anything. I
> mean, I’ve had many friends, business people, people with great,
> actually, common sense — they said, “Why don’t we ride it out?” A
> lot of people have said. A lot of people have thought about it.
> “Ride it out. Don’t do anything, just ride it out and think of it
> as the flu.” But it’s not the flu. It’s vicious.

> When you send a friend to the hospital, and you call up to find
> out how is he doing — it happened to me, where he goes to the
> hospital, he says goodbye. He’s sort of a tough guy. A little
> older, a little heavier than he’d like to be, frankly. And you
> call up the next day: “How’s he doing?” And he’s in a coma? This
> is not the flu.

> So we would have seen things had we done nothing. But for a long
> while, a lot of people were asking that question, I think, right?
> I was asking it also. I mean, a lot of people were saying, “Well,
> let’s just ride it out.” This is not to be ridden out because
> then you would have been looking at potentially 2.2 million people
> or more. 2.2 million people in a relatively short period of time.

> If you remember, they were looking at that concept. It’s a
> concept, I guess. You know, it’s concept if you — if you don’t
> mind death. A lot of death. But they were looking at that in the
> UK. Remember? They were very much looking at it. And all of a
> sudden, they went hard the other way because they started seeing
> things that weren’t good. So they were — you know, they put
> themselves in a little bit of a problem.

> Now, Boris tested positive, and I hear he’s — I hope he’s going to
> be fine. But in the UK, they were looking at that. And they have
> a name for it, but we won’t even call — we won’t even go by the
> name. But it would’ve been — it would have been very catastrophic,
> I think, if that would have happened. [[Note: the name he's
> referencing is "herd immunity."]]

> But that was something that everybody was talking about, Steve,
> like, “just don’t do anything.” “Don’t do anything. Forget about
> everything. Just ride it out.” They used the expression, “Ride it
> out.” We would have had, at a minimum, 1.5, 1.6, but you would
> have had perhaps more than 2.2 million people dying in a very
> short period of time. And that would have been a number that —
> the likes of which we’ve never seen."

I think that one of the major issues is that the public would not
tolerate a "ride it out" strategy. If it were tried, Boris Johnson's
government would quickly fall and Trump would be impeached (again).
Many people in the public would implement mitigation policies in their
own neighborhoods, cities, states and provinces.

In fact, if you look at the 1918 Spanish Flu documentary that I
mentioned in an earlier message, there was a de facto "ride it out"
policy in effect in 1918, but there was still a lot of mitigation
going on, with policies put into effect by individual organizations
and local governments. So basically what I'm saying is that a "ride
it out" or "herd immunity" or "burn through" strategy cannot be
implemented because the public won't tolerate it, as soon as the
deaths start piling up.

There are even stories coming out of densely populated cities like
Mumbai or refugee camps, that people are taking "social distancing"
mitigation steps on their own. People are not willing to just stand
around, ride it out, and die.

Many officials are passionate about this issue, and I don't blame
them. A lot of people are going to be suffering because of the
economic situation, and a lot of people are going to be starving
because they no longer have an income.

[David Horn]

I don't see the "ride it out" meme being viable. First, we already exceed the capability of our healthcare system with the actions in place, and letting it ride will only guarantee that the dead will pile-up like cord wood. Then comes the next round: secondary disease. Long before the economy comes into play, we'll go through round after round of illnesses sweeping through, and no way to stop them. This isn't stupid. It's insane!

BTW, we'll see this model in the 3rd world; they no other option. Let's not try it here.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 04-Apr-2020 World View: Ride it out!

(04-04-2020, 08:26 AM)David Horn Wrote: > I don't see the "ride it out" meme being viable. First, we
> already exceed the capability of our healthcare system with the
> actions in place, and letting it ride will only guarantee that the
> dead will pile-up like cord wood. Then comes the next round:
> secondary disease. Long before the economy comes into play, we'll
> go through round after round of illnesses sweeping through, and no
> way to stop them. This isn't stupid. It's insane!

> BTW, we'll see this model in the 3rd world; they no other option.
> Let's not try it here.

From what I've seen, I have the impression that those advocating "ride
it out" are younger people who are saying, "Finally! We have a way to
get rid of the Boomers!"