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Generational Dynamics World View
(04-18-2020, 10:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: One thing that we don't know is how the Wuhan Coronavirus has affected
China's military.  The CCP thugs claim that not a single China soldier
has been infected.

I think we have a pretty good idea.  All militaries are very heavy in younger age groups, where Covid-19 is no more severe than the flu, and for the youngest, less severe.  The Chinese military is operating just as it would in a bad flu year.  It's only the US military that's overreacting by needlessly taking aircraft carriers offline.
Reply
** 20-Apr-2020 World View: Oil prices crashing with some going negative

The price of "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI) crude oil, which is
produced by shale oil drillers, fell 40% in the last few hours
to $11 per barrel.

Typical prices in the past have been $50-70 per barrel of oil. It was
falling before the pandemic, but the pandemic accelerated the fall.

What's most startling is that some oil prices have gone negative.
During the early hours of Monday morning, prices for Western Canadian
Select oil fell to $-0.15 per barrel.

The reason that a barrel of oil is worth less than nothing is
because there's such a huge oil glut in the world that there's no
place left to store it. Land-based oil repositories around the
world, and oil tankers traveling in circles at sea, are all loaded
to capacity.

Prices of other forms of energy are also turning negative. In
Germany, prices for wind and solar power turned negative on Sunday
afternoon to -26 euros per megawatt-hour.

As I described in my article yesterday, a global financial panic and
crash is caused by a chain reaction of missed debt payments and
bankruptcies. This oil price crash will force a number of shale oil
producers into bankruptcies.

This sudden, rapid crash of oil prices, even to the extent of
prices going negative because of lack of storage space,
is the kind of thing that could possibly trigger a general
panic and crash.

-- US oil prices crash to their lowest level in over 21 years as
storage run
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/coronavi...s-out.html
(CNBC, 20-Apr-2020)

-- Negative Crude?
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/04...ery-crude/
(Global Macro Monitor, 20-Apr-2020)

-- NWE power prices fall into negative territory for two consecutive days
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/marke...utive-days
(S&P Global, 20-Apr-2020)
Reply
(04-19-2020, 02:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-18-2020, 10:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: One thing that we don't know is how the Wuhan Coronavirus has affected
China's military.  The CCP thugs claim that not a single China soldier
has been infected.

I think we have a pretty good idea.  All militaries are very heavy in younger age groups, where Covid-19 is no more severe than the flu, and for the youngest, less severe.  The Chinese military is operating just as it would in a bad flu year.  It's only the US military that's overreacting by needlessly taking aircraft carriers offline.

Really?  We have an enormous navy, and bringing another CVN in to replace the TR should be easy.  Replacing crew who are sick (one dead so far) would be harder by far.  What happens when sailors make the rational judgement that they are expendable, even in peacetime?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
** 20-Apr-2020 World View: Oil prices continue crashing

Oil prices have continued to crash all day, and WTI crude prices are
now negative, mainly because of storage problems, as described above.

These prices are for oil to be delivered in May on the futures market.

Notes from an al-Jazeera report:

In the last week, half the oil rigs in Texas have gone out of
business, from over 800 oil rigs to about 400.

The oversupply is 35 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia and Russia
recently agreed to cut supply by 10 million barrels a day, which is
too small a cut.

Oil produced in other countries are not yet as badly affected because
the storage issues aren't as bad as in the US.

Al-Jazeera just reported that oil is now at $-40 per barrel. If
that's correct, then it looks like a real disaster in the making, as
it implies that oil producers are going to have oil on their hands
with no place to store it.

However, another analyst has come on with a soothing, calming voice,
saying that the US government has some storage locations available,
and can buy up the excess oil. This soothing analyst says that the
May contract is closing today, and the June contract opens tomorrow,
and prices will return to $+20.
Reply
(04-20-2020, 11:16 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-19-2020, 02:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I think we have a pretty good idea.  All militaries are very heavy in younger age groups, where Covid-19 is no more severe than the flu, and for the youngest, less severe.  The Chinese military is operating just as it would in a bad flu year.  It's only the US military that's overreacting by needlessly taking aircraft carriers offline.

Really?  We have an enormous navy, and bringing another CVN in to replace the TR should be easy.  Replacing crew who are sick (one dead so far) would be harder by far.  What happens when sailors make the rational judgement that they are expendable, even in peacetime?

We replace crews every few years for each carrier, while the carriers themselves last for decades.  Replacing crews is far easier than replacing aircraft carriers.

If the sailors realize they are expendable even in peacetime, we finally get rid of the ones who see their jobs as sinecures, and get to replace them with people who understand they are risking their lives to serve their country - yes, even in peacetime.  For the Navy, especially, very few of its jobs are exclusively wartime jobs, and it's about time the fair weather sailors who don't realize that get replaced.
Reply
** 20-Apr-2020 World View: North Korea's Kim Jong-un may be critically ill after heart surgery

[Image: g160803b.jpg]
  • Child dictator Kim Jong-un in 2016


There are reports from North Korea that the child dictator underwent a
"cardiovascular procedure" early this month, and that he's been
receiving continuing treatment since then. Kim went to the hospital
on April 11 after a party meeting, and hasn't been seen publicly since
then. His absence from events last week marking the birthday of his
grandfather Kim Il-sung was unprecedented.

In 2016, reports indicated that North Korean officials were concerned
about the child dictator's weight gain, which has grown from 198
pounds in 2012 to 286. Reports indicated that Kim Jong-un is
consuming high-quality cheeses, Big Macs, vodka, steak, and sushi, and
that he's suffering from gout, diabetes, high blood pressure, high
uric acid, and high cholesterol.

---- Sources:

-- North Korea's Kim getting treatment after cardiovascular procedure:
report
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-north...SKBN223011
(Reuters, 21-Apr-2020)

-- Kim Jong Un Surgery Report Fuels Speculation About Leader’s Health
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...ean-leader
(Bloomberg, 20-Apr-2020)

-- Kim Yo-jong: the sister of Kim Jong-un, fast 'becoming his alter
ego'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/a...-alter-ego
(Guardian, London, 19-Apr-2020)

---- Related:

** 4-Aug-16 World View -- North Korean officials reportedly alarmed at Kim Jong-un's drinking and massive weight gain
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e160804
Reply
(04-20-2020, 05:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: … If the sailors realize they are expendable even in peacetime, we finally get rid of the ones who see their jobs as sinecures, and get to replace them with people who understand they are risking their lives to serve their country - yes, even in peacetime.  For the Navy, especially, very few of its jobs are exclusively wartime jobs, and it's about time the fair weather sailors who don't realize that get replaced.

Spoken like one who never served a day himself. Military service is predicated on the idea that the soldiers/sailors/airmen/marines commit their all, and the opposite is also true: that the military has their backs. When that shared trust fails, mass exodus is the typical result. This entire event was totally unnecessary and counterproductive. When retired 4-stars like GEN McChrystal and ADM Stavridis are willing to say so in public, that tells the tale.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
** 21-Apr-2020 World View: Price of oil

Xeraphim1 Wrote:> "There are mitigating circumstances to these insane numbers. The
> prices for WTI reflect the contract for May, which expires this
> week. The collapse is a reflection of traders abandoning the May
> contract, and moving on to June. The thinly-traded May contract
> loses some relevance, and analysts say that the June contract –
> trading at $20 per barrel as of Monday – now becomes the important
> number to watch."

> It's a weird thing, but doesn't mean as much as you might
> think.

I just heard that the price of oil is $10 per barrel in the June
contract. Even at $20, there will be lots of bankruptcies among oil
producers, and lots of losses among banks and hedge funds. Tens of
thousands of people will lose their jobs.

I just heard a news report that the prices of used cars are
plummeting. This is all because of the economic shutdown. Even if
some of the lockdowns end, these price collapses will continue for
many months. This is a classic deflationary spiral, like the 1930s.
Reply
(04-21-2020, 10:00 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Apr-2020 World View: Price of oil

I just heard that the price of oil is $10 per barrel in the June contract.  Even at $20, there will be lots of bankruptcies among oil producers, and lots of losses among banks and hedge funds.  Tens of thousands of people will lose their jobs.

I just heard a news report that the prices of used cars are plummeting.  This is all because of the economic shutdown.  Even if some of the lockdowns end, these price collapses will continue for many months.  This is a classic deflationary spiral, like the 1930sb.

That aligns well with the thinking others of all political stripes, that see things happening that haven't in a long time.  Neil Irwin wrote about this in the NY Times. Here's a short excerpt:
Quote:"The economic result of the pandemic is, more than anything, a sudden stop of demand. There may be a few products in which shortages are an issue, including medical equipment, personal protective gear and disinfectant wipes. But the overall picture is that a huge share of potential economic output is simply on hold.

That includes obvious candidates like restaurants, airlines and sports arenas, which are sitting empty. It includes the 22 million workers who have filed for unemployment insurance benefits, with many more likely to come. It includes less obvious candidates like the auto industry, which has temporarily shuttered factories. And, we now see, it includes the energy industry, with more capacity to pump oil out of the ground than there is demand for at present, and inadequate storage capacity.

All of that points to a deflationary collapse — a glut of supply of goods and services, and consequently falling prices — that surpasses anything seen in most people’s lifetimes."

The rest of the article is similar in temperament.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
** 21-Apr-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Germany and Singapore

Here are a couple of news items that I just heard on CNN.

In Germany, Angela Merkel has canceled Octoberfest. This is not
surprising, but it does provide a shock to those who were hoping that
everything would return to normal by the end of the summer.

In Singapore, strict lockdown laws are being extended for additional
weeks. Singapore had been held up internationally as a model for how
to deal with the virus successfully, but now the number of cases is
exploding, especially among guest workers.

A couple of additional notes about Singapore:

Donald Trump announced he would sign an executive order stopping even
legal immigration. The details have yet to be announced, and there
are sure to be a lot of exceptions. People on the left and right have
expressed puzzlement about why this is being done, but it's possible
that the Singapore experience is one of the reasons.

The current temperature in Singapore is around 90 degees F. I wrote
several months ago that since Singapore is right on the equator, it
would provide a test case for whether the virus would die out during
the summer. If Singapore is seeing an explosion in cases, this would
suggest that the virus will continue to spread during the summer.
Even worse, it may mutate during the summer into something more
virulent, as happened during the Spanish Flu pandemic in summer 1918.

Quote:> "The climate in Singapore is equatorial, ie hot,
> humid, and rainy throughout the year. The country, which is at the
> same time an island, a city, and a state, is actually at the
> Equator, in an area where there are always the conditions for the
> formation of showers and thunderstorms.

> Although the climate is fairly uniform, there are some variations
> in the course of the year due to the two monsoons: the north-east
> monsoon, which occurs from November to early March and is more
> rainy, especially in the first part, and the south-west monsoon,
> which occurs from June to September. The first period between the
> two monsoon, from March to early June, is the hottest and the most
> unpleasant of the year.

> Temperatures in Singapore are quite uniform, since they only vary
> by a few degrees between the coolest and the warmest months. The
> minimum temperature ranges from 23 °C (73 °F) in December and
> January to 25 °C (77 °F) in May and June, while the maximum ranges
> from 30 °C (86 °F) in December and January to 32 °C (90 °F) in
> April and May."

> https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/singapore
Reply
(04-21-2020, 09:19 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 05:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: … If the sailors realize they are expendable even in peacetime, we finally get rid of the ones who see their jobs as sinecures, and get to replace them with people who understand they are risking their lives to serve their country - yes, even in peacetime.  For the Navy, especially, very few of its jobs are exclusively wartime jobs, and it's about time the fair weather sailors who don't realize that get replaced.

Spoken like one who never served a day himself.

Speak for yourself, civvie.  I served through most of the 1980s, when it was nominally peacetime, but we treated it as wartime.  You would never have seen something like a carrier CO's internal memo with sensitive operational data leaked to the press back then. Thanks to that plus good national leadership at the time, we were ultimately rewarded with victory in the Cold War.

Unfortunately, through the 1990s, the military switched to a lax peacetime attitude.  The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have largely corrected this in the Army, but the Air Force and the Navy continue to tolerate a weak attitude.  That needs to be fixed so the Navy can again attend to its mission, which includes more peacetime than wartime obligations.
Reply
(04-21-2020, 12:39 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-21-2020, 09:19 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-20-2020, 05:08 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: … If the sailors realize they are expendable even in peacetime, we finally get rid of the ones who see their jobs as sinecures, and get to replace them with people who understand they are risking their lives to serve their country - yes, even in peacetime.  For the Navy, especially, very few of its jobs are exclusively wartime jobs, and it's about time the fair weather sailors who don't realize that get replaced.

Spoken like one who never served a day himself.

Speak for yourself, civvie.  I served through most of the 1980s, when it was nominally peacetime, but we treated it as wartime.  You would never have seen something like a carrier CO's internal memo with sensitive operational data leaked to the press back then.  Thanks to that plus good national leadership at the time, we were ultimately rewarded with victory in the Cold War.

Unfortunately, through the 1990s, the military switched to a lax peacetime attitude.  The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have largely corrected this in the Army, but the Air Force and the Navy continue to tolerate a weak attitude.  That needs to be fixed so the Navy can again attend to its mission, which includes more peacetime than wartime obligations.

I was Army, but I served when the Navy was actually in the fight.  Good faith was a two way street.  I doubt that's changed.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Reply
** 23-Apr-2020 World View: South Africa

richard5za Wrote:> Prior to this five-week stretch of 26.5 million initial jobless
> claims, there were already 7.1 million unemployed Americans as of
> March 13, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. When
> the figures are combined, it would equal more than 33 million
> unemployed, or a real unemployment rate of 20.6%—which would be
> the highest level since 1934. (Copied from Fortune) This is
> happening in the richest nation on this planet! What about us
> lesser souls?

Policymakers and in the US and elsewhere are living in a world of
fantasy on the virus issue. In this fantasy world, the "opening up"
of the US economy will bring about a complete recovery within a few
months.

When I write about this issue, I always try to remember to point out
that while this US recovery is going on, Covid is going to be burning
through countries in Africa, the Mideast, Asia, Central America, South
America and so forth. This is all going to spill over into the US,
and spoil the nice clean US "opening up" plan.

And yet, this issue is never mentioned by Trump's task force, or by
so-called reporters on CNN, MSNBC or Fox. In this fantasy world, the
US is still isolated from the rest of the world, and there is no
relationship between the virus in the US and the virus elsewhere.
This fantasy world is going to fall apart at some point, probably in
the fall, if not earlier.

As a separate issue, with oil prices crashing because there's no
storage space, it's hard to escape the feeling that some kind of
disastrous accident is in the making.

I also get the feeling that Africa is living in its own fantasy world
-- waiting for the hated Americans or the hated European colonists to
save them from Covid-19, instead of saving themselves. What's Julius
Malema's plan for saving Africa?

Here's an article that describes how bad the problem is:

-- Township lockdown: How South Africa’s poor bear the cost of
coronavirus
https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/featu...bs-poverty
(New Humanitarian, 23-Apr-2020)

At any rate, I expect some sort of disaster to destroy these fantasy
worlds by the fall, or earlier.
Reply
(04-21-2020, 11:46 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Apr-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Germany and Singapore

Here are a couple of news items that I just heard on CNN.

In Germany, Angela Merkel has canceled Octoberfest.  This is not
surprising, but it does provide a shock to those who were hoping that
everything would return to normal by the end of the summer.
Quote:
Strictly speaking, not Merkel, but the Bavarian premier minister Markus Söder, canceled Oktoberfest.
Reply
** 25-Apr-2020 World View: Reports: North Korea's Kim Jong-un is dead

[Image: 916157804-e1587855258171.jpg?w=640&quality=60&strip=all]
  • Kim Yo-jong, the hot younger sister of the child dictator Kim
    Jong-un. Western analysts are debating whether the North Koreans
    would accept a girl as leader.


There are multiple unconfirmed reports coming out of China and Japan
that North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, is either dead or in a
vegatative state, thanks to a botched heart operation two weeks ago.
Reportedly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on Friday sent a
team of medical experts to diagnose the situation and provide advice.

The logical successor within Kim's family would be his younger sister
Kim Yo-jong. However, it's not clear that the North Koreans would
accept a female leader. But if the Germans could accept Angela Merkel
and the British could accept Margaret Thatcher and the ancient
Egyptians could accept Cleopatra, then I don't see why the North
Koreans couldn't accept Kim Yo-jong.

Some analysts are suggesting that the death of Kim Jong-un could
trigger widespread social unrest. North Korea has entered a
generational Crisis era, so that has to be considered a possibility.

The North Koreans have been claiming that there are no cases of
Covid-19 in North Korea, but that claim is not believed.

----- Sources:

-- 'Kim Jong-un dead' – multiple sources claim North Korean dictator
died Saturday night
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/127...ad-reports
(London Express, 26-Apr-2020)

-- Exclusive: China sent team including medical experts to advise on
North Korea’s Kim
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-north...SKCN2263DW
(Reuters, 25-Apr-2020)

-- If North Korea's Kim Jong Un dies, who will be his successor?
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/if-n...-successor
(National Post, 25-Apr-2020)

---- Related:

*** 20-Apr-2020 World View: North Korea's Kim Jong-un may be critically ill after heart surgery
*** http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=51670#p51670

** 4-Aug-16 World View -- North Korean officials reportedly alarmed at Kim Jong-un's drinking and massive weight gain
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e160804



** 12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e180212
Reply
** 26-Apr-2020 World View: The future of North and South Korea

Guest Wrote:> Is it realistic to keep American soldiers in South Korea? We don't
> have the troops to fight another Korean war. Wouldn't a North
> Korean attack just lead to nuclear war? And there is a very real
> possibility that the leftist government under President Moon might
> surrender to the Chinese and North Koreans in the event of an
> ultimatum. Where would that leave the US soldiers and their
> dependents? Answer: gulags.

> A right wing Korean government would fight; it's in their DNA, but
> a liberal government might not.

> When is someone going to consider reality?

> We are not going to fight a ground war against the Chinese. It
> won't happen. With their vast stockpiles of nuclear, chemical, and
> biological weapons, nuclear incineration will be necessary to
> prevent America's complete. A preemptive strike is in the offing,
> even if the Pentagon will never admit it.

> We need to get our people out of harm's way. At the very least,
> evacuate the dependents and make SK a hardship assignment.

The mere announcement of a plan to withdraw troops from South Korea
would, by itself, be viewed as a surrender, and would bring about the
worst of the consequences that you fear.

"And there is a very real possibility that the leftist government
under President Moon might surrender to the Chinese and North Koreans
in the event of an ultimatum." --- No there isn't. There isn't a
snowflake's chance in hell that the South Koreans would surrender to a
Chinese/North Korean ultimatum.

Moon may be the head of a "leftist government," but that doesn't mean
surrender. One example occurred in July 2017, when Moon responded to
a North Korean ballistic missile test by approving further THAAD
deployments in South Korea, after having blocked them previously.
This caused the usual whining and screaming from the CCP thugs, and a
Chinese boycott of Lotte department stores and South Korean tourism.
But Moon certainly did not simply surrender to China's demands. In
fact, South Korea stood up more firmly to Chinese demands than many
other countries have been doing.

** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190429



In this generational Crisis era, nobody is going to surrender without
a new Korean war -- something that South Korea doesn't want, North
Korea doesn't want, and China doesn't want.

The fact is that the North Koreans have much more in common with the
South Koreans than with the Chinese. Kim's goal has been to reunify
Korean under a North Korean government, not a Chinese government.

If the reports are true the Kim Jong-un is close to death, then China
is facing a major crisis. There's a possibility of détente between
North and South Korea, such as the one that eventually led to the
reunification of East and West Germany, that would shut out the
Chinese.

So there are several possible scenarios about what's going to happen
next. But announcing an American troop withdrawal would trigger the
wrong scenarios.
Reply
Removing American troops for nothing in exchange would be foolish anyway. That's the only bargaining chip we have that might get North Korea to give up nuclear weapons.
Reply
*** 27-Apr-20 World View -- CNBC's Jim Cramer: Hostility to China grows in America

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • CNBC's Jim Cramer: Hostility to China grows in America
  • China's love for Ecuador
  • The Chinese master race
  • Global views of China continue to turn increasingly negative
  • Growing evidence of China's malicious behavior in spreading pandemic
  • A thousand ways to end the lockouts

****
**** CNBC's Jim Cramer: Hostility to China grows in America
****


[Image: g200426b.jpg]
WHO's January 24 tweet stating that there was no evidence of human-to-human transmission and community spread. The Chinese had already known for six weeks that there was human-to-human transmission and community spread. This tweet was a global disaster, because it lulled many countries into complacency.

A lengthy rant by CNBC's Jim Cramer shows several aspects of how world
opinion toward China is growing increasingly negative, starting with
the US-China trade dispute, and more so with the Wuhan Coronavirus
(Covid-19) issue. A growing minority consider the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) to be a criminal organization.

Cramer's rant was directed at China's reaction to a failed
drug trial by the California company Gilead Sciences.

Gilead is one of dozens of American companies that are working to
develop vaccines, treatments, therapeutics or even a cure for the
Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19). Gilead has an existing antiviral
treatment product, Remdesivir, that has been used to treat Ebola
patients. In March, the FDA approved testing the drug for Covid-19
patients.

Gilead went to a great deal of trouble to get approval for a test of
Covid-19 patients in China. The trial was ended last week, after
being inconclusive. Chinese officials responded by trashing Gilead,
trashing the trial, and getting the World Health Organization (WHO) to
do the same. WHO was forced to retract its statement. Gilead issued
a statement saying that the trial was ended because enrollment was too
low, and said, "the study results are inconclusive, though trends in
the data suggest a potential benefit for remdesivir, particularly
among patients treated early in disease." Gilead accused China of
posting "inappropriate characterizations of the study."

CNBC's principal commentator Jim Cramer commented on this situation on
Friday morning with an extended rant (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"And I thought it you listen to [Dr. Scott Gottlieb],
you would conclude only one thing: That the Chinese have done very
bad job in the way that they've handled us. And I've always felt
that Remdesivir would help if you get it early enough. ... I think
that the Chinese have been horrendous. And I think that the WHO
has been horrendous, and I think that the combination of the two
[China and WHO] against Gilead and the assault against Gilead [is
horrendous]. And here's a company [Gilead] that's done its
absolute best like many American companies, and I don't understand
the animus of China to our own companies, other than the fact they
regard us as a cold war opponent. ...

The reason that I'm discouraged about the Chinese is we have so
many great things that are going on here by fantastic people who
are really doing great things, and all we ever get from the
Chinese is frankly a country that looks down upon us. They're
number one, and they're the great power, and we're being treated
by them and our companies are being treated by them with the
greatest disrespect.

... That's how they treat us. Why does anyone say that?

I sat there and listened to what they [the Chinese] did with
Gilead. First they said they didn't do the test, cause it
couldn't get finished. Then suddenly they leak to the WHO saying
how bad it is. Then it's pulled from WHO. In the meantime, all
Gilead is doing, AND FOR FREE, is to try to come up with something
that when you start early might work. And the disrespect [from
China] is widely accepted [by the media]. Maybe Trump is a hot
button [to the media]. But not the Chinese. The Chinese are
revered. My father worked for the Chinese. God love them, they
were nice to my father. Have you ever seen anyone just look down
upon us, and say that we don't know what we're doing? Even the
Soviet Union respected us from 47 to 87. They respected us. But
-- What do they [the Chinese] think of us that they could treat us
like this. And our drug companies? How many Nobel Prizes have
they won?

... That's just the way I feel. You and I know that this idea
that we're a fifth rate power and they would treat Ecuador better
than us, and you saw Ecuador in the papers today."<END QUOTE>


I quoted Cramer's rant at length because I want to use it to make
serveral points.

****
**** China's love for Ecuador
****


Let's start with the easiest one -- the reference to Ecuador.

Ecuador's infestation of Covid-19 is a mess, with many streets filled
with bodies of dead people. That's the reason that Ecuador has been
in the papers, but that isn't the reason that China loves Ecuador.

Thanks to China's "debt trap diplomacy," Ecuador owes $6.5 billion to
China. In return, Ecuador is China's slave. China has deployed a
massive surveillance spy system in Ecuador, the ECU-911 system, that
can spy on all citizens, and sends its data back to China's military.
By the way, similar systems have been sold to Venezuela, Bolivia and
Angola. So that explains why China loves Ecuador. ( "13-Oct-19 World View -- Ecuador's president Moreno imposes curfew after 10 days of violent protests"
)

****
**** The Chinese master race
****


Jim Cramer is confused about why the CCP is so disrespectful of
Americans and American companies. "I don't understand the animus of
China to our own companies, other than the fact they regard us as a
cold war opponent," says Cramer.

No, that isn't the reason at all. In fact, the Chinese do not see
this situation as a "cold war." They see it as a prelude to a hot
war.

China is unique as having an extremely racist view of themselves as
superior to everyone else.

America is a "melting pot" of many races. Americans know that, and
don't consider themselves to be some sort of superior race or master
race. Instead, Americans see themselves as ordinary people who were
lucky enough to be born in the greatest country in history. Most
countries have similar views of their own people.

But not the Chinese. They are unique in a highly racist way, as I
described in my book, "War Between China and Japan." Since ancient
times, the Chinese have viewed the universe in three layers: The
highest layer is the Kingdom of Heaven. The second layer is China,
the Master Race, the Middle Kingdom -- yellow race, black hair, brown
eyes, yellow skin. And the bottom layer is everyone else, the rest of
us, the barbarians. The Chinese culture views the Chinese as a Master
Race, superior to all other races. Even Hitler's Master Race Nazi
attitude was not as bad, because it only survived a couple of decades.
But the Chinese Master Race attitude is has been firmly entrenched in
the Chinese culture literally for millennia.

China's government, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), considers
itself superior to all other governments, and not bound by
international law, or any international agreements that it has signed.
To the CCP, joining the United Nations or the World Health
Organization (WHO) or the World Trade Organization (WTO) or any
international organization does not require China to abide by any
commitments. The CCP considers itself superior to the organization,
and is simply using the organization as a way of controlling and
exploiting the barbarians for the benefit of the CCP.

So that's why the Chinese love Ecuador. To the Chinese, Ecuadorians
are like cute little poodles that are controlled and monitored by the
CCP masters, and who do as their CCP masters tell them. Who wouldn't
love to be masters of a country of cute little poodles? But the CCP
hates Americans because we aren't obedient poodles, and because we
constantly prove that we're better than they are. As Cramer asks,
"How many Nobel Prizes have they won?"

So this isn't some simple economic competition, or even a simple
military competition. America's superiority to China is a definitive
challenge to Confucius and to China's entire racist Master Race
culture.

So Jim Cramer had no idea why the Chinese treat Americans with such
enormous contempt, but if he reads this, then he'll finally know.

****
**** Global views of China continue to turn increasingly negative
****


Cramer's rant illustrates more and more widely held views that China
is not a friend, but an enemy.

Americans have always had a friendly positive view of China. We helped
them in World War I, and we saved them in WW II. Even when Mao Zedong
was starving and murdering tens of millions of Chinese in the
Great Leap Forward, even when the CCP was slaughtering thousands
of peaceful young students in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, it
made little difference -- Americans loved China.

According to Pew Research, this changed sharply in 2011, when Xi
Jinping came to power, as shown by this chart.

[Image: g200426c.jpg]
American positive and negative views of China, 2005-2020

Views became less unfavorable in 2016-17, but then unfavorable
views surged in 2018 with the trade dispute, and recently
with the Covid-19 issue.

This change is even more pronounced by the people of India, who
believe that China’s opacity and mismanagement is to blame for the
global pandemic, according to a survey conducted by The Takshashila
Institution in Bangalore, India. According to the survey:
  • 67% blame China for the pandemic.
  • Descriptive terms like “Chinese virus,” “Wuhan virus” and “Made in
    China pandemic” underscore public anger.
  • Chinese diplomats pushing the narrative of China's success
    in containing the outbreak are not believed.
  • 65% see China's response to the outbreak as draconian and opaque,
    with its data being intentionally falsified.

According to a study of Indian social media, Indians are angry at
China and the World Health Organization (WHO) for their mishandling of
the pandemic, and they praise the efficiency and transparency of
Taiwan's response.

I haven't seen any surveys of Chinese attitudes towards Americans
and Indians, but it would seem likely that those attitudes
are becoming more negative as well.

****
**** Growing evidence of China's malicious behavior in spreading pandemic
****


Evidence is growing that the CCP purposely took steps to spread the
pandemic to other countries, and used the World Health Organization as
a tool to do this. The motive was that China did not want to be the
only country in the world experiencing a pandemic, and wanted to make
sure that the pandemic spread to the US and other countries.

First, there's the question of where the virus came from. There are
three theories:
  • A bioweapon developed by the Wuhan Institute Of Virology.
    This is rejected by almost everyone.
  • A naturally occurring virus under study at the Wuhan Institute Of
    Virology that escaped.
  • A naturally occurring virus that spread spontaneously in Wuhan's
    wet markets.

The first of these theories is almost universally rejected, and there
are investigations underway to determine which of the latter two
theories is correct. However, it doesn't really matter too much which
it is.

What matters now and what's important now is the CCP's actions once
the virus started spreading in Wuhan. The circumstantial evidence
points clearly, almost beyond a reasonable doubt, to the conclusion
that the CCP purposely spread the virus around the world.
  • In early December, Wuhan doctors were finding patients with
    infections that indicated the virus was spreading from one human to
    another. The CCP's reaction to this was to censor all
    discussion.

  • China could have stopped the virus at this point with contact
    tracing and isolation. They did start quarantining patients later in
    December, but still censored any discussion. Sometime in late
    December, Wuhan hospitals noticed an exponential increase in the
    number of cases, making it clear to the doctors involved that there
    was human to human transmission, but that information was
    censored.

  • On January 1, Dr. Li Wenlian, who had identified and reported
    about the virus's communal spread, was forced to sign a phony
    confession. Dr. Li died of the disease himself. Seven other people
    are arrested on similar charges and their fate is unknown.

  • On January 6, the US CDC offered to send a team to Wuhan to assist
    in the investigation. The CCP blocked them, and continued blocking
    any further requests.

  • During this period, WHO rejected warnings from Taiwan that China
    was lying. WHO is obeying the CCP's demands to ignore Taiwan.

  • During January, China blocked airline travel out of Wuhan into
    other parts of China, but allowed thousands of Chinese to travel to
    other countries, especially Europe and America, apparently with the
    motive of seeding the virus in as many countries as possible.

  • China repeatedly issued statements that there is "no clear
    evidence of human-to-human transmission and no medical staff
    infections," which they knew was a lie.

  • On January 8, an official statement from the World Health
    Organization declares, “Preliminary identification of a novel virus in
    a short period of time is a notable achievement and demonstrates
    China’s increased capacity to manage new outbreaks.... WHO does not
    recommend any specific measures for travelers. WHO advises against the
    application of any travel or trade restrictions on China based on the
    information currently available." Many countries depended on this
    statement to permit tens of thousands of travelers from China to enter
    their countries and seed the virus in the population.

  • On January 14, WHO issued the tweet shown at the beginning of this
    article, saying "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese
    authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human
    transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan,
    China." This tweet was particularly deadly for the world, as it
    lulled numerous countries into complacency. It was a total lie, as
    the Chinese already knew for five or six weeks that there we
    human-to-human transmission and communal spread.

  • According to White House adviser Peter Navarro, during the time
    when China and the WHO were denying human-to-human transmission,
    Chinese agents went to countries around the world and bought up large
    quantities "to corner the market in personal protective equipment
    including masks. So they were buying large quantities of masks,
    gloves, goggles, respirators from the rest of the world at a time when
    the world was still sleeping with respect to the dangers of the
    virus."

  • On January 31, Donald Trump imposed travel restrictions on people
    travelling from China.

I've listened to several interviews on the BBC and elsewhere of
Chinese officials being asked about these charges. These Chinese
officials are really mealy-mouthed. They never try to explain their
actions, but just blame everything on Trump, even though every country
on the planet is going to suffer because of China's actions. It's
proof of how stupid the CCP thugs are, if they think that we're so
stupid we believe what they're saying.

I always say that the CCP officials are the dumbest bunch of thugs
imaginable. You never know how they're going to handle a situation,
but you can always be certain that they'll handle it in such a way as
to make it worse. They've certainly done that in this situation.

The CCP thugs apparently believe that they can talk their way out of
this, just as they've tried to talk their way out of their illegal
annexation of the South China Sea or their genocide and ethnic
cleansing of Muslim Uighurs and Kazakhs in East Turkestan (Xinjiang
province). The CCP thugs are unable to grasp how dangerous the
situation is, as the people of the world increasingly view the CCP as
a criminal organization. This will not go well for anybody.

****
**** A thousand ways to end the lockouts
****


It now appears that we'll have continue using "social distancing" and
other containment methods until early 2022. The world will be a very
different place by then, even more so if there's a war with China
before then.

There are now about 3 million cases and 200,000 deaths worldwide, with
almost 100,000 cases and almost 55,000 deaths in the United States.

If you're willing to step back from the horror of that many deaths,
and look at the big picture, then there are some interesting
experiments going on.

There are 50 states in the US, and there are countries and provinces
around the world. So let's say that there are 500 different regions.

Then there are 500 different experiments going on for dealing with the
virus. Some started lockdowns early, some later, and others had no
lockdowns at all. Different lockdowns permitted different kinds of
activities, whether buying groceries or jogging alone in the park,
provided that "social distancing" and face mask rules are followed.

Now they're starting to end the lockdowns. Some are doing it early,
some doing it quickly, some doing it later, some doing it slowly.
Some will fail, and there will be a new resurgence of cases, and all
the accomplishments of the lockdown will be lost.

That means that by the end of the summer, we're going to have a great
deal of data and information on what works and what doesn't. It's
widely expected that there will be a "second wave" of the pandemic in
the fall, and in that case, all the data collected from these 500
experiments will be used to deal with the virus much more effectively
than in the first wave.

So I'm going to call this "good news." People are always complaining
that I post nothing but bad news, but this is one piece of good news:
If there's a "second wave" in the fall, then we'll know how to handle
it effectively, based on the experience of these 500 experiments.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

Related articles:


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19,
CNBC, Jim Cramer, Gilead Sciences, Remdesivir,
World Health Organization, WHO, Taiwan,
Ecuador, ECU-911, Venezuela, Bolivia, Angola,
Confucius, Kingdom of Heaven, Middle Kingdom, barbarians,
India, Takshashila Institution, Peter Navarro,
Wuhan, Li Wenlian, Wuhan Institute Of Virology

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John J. Xenakis
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Reply
** 27-Apr-2020 World View: Alive or dead?

Guest Wrote:
Xeraphim1 Wrote:
Guest Wrote:"North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is 'alive and well'"

First indication he's at room temperature.

The South Koreans seem to think he's still alive. I would accept their intelligence as likely more accurate.

Unless it is in South Korea's interest to deny it.

According to BBC reporting from Seoul, the South Koreans have no clue
whether Kim Jong-un is alive or dead.
Reply
** 27-Apr-2020 World View: North and South Korea confederation

thomasglee Wrote:> The Moon regime has become more and more dismissive toward the USA
> over the past several years. South Korean manufacturers are
> heavily dependent on China and China is dependant on Korea for
> technologies that can be used in 5G networks. I suspect China and
> Korea will align against the USA and Japan. South Korea and China
> needed the Kim family (or at least Kim Jong Un) out of the way to
> achieve this goal. KJU and Trump were getting along too well and
> KJU doesn't/didn't want to lose the power and wealth he maintains
> by a divided Korea. He is not nearly as ideological as his father
> and grandfather. With KJU out of the way, a confederation between
> the north and south can be created, giving south Korea access to
> nuclear and missile technologies, which they will likely use to
> act as a blocking force against Japan and/or Taiwan in a war
> between the USA and China. To me, it is becoming more and more
> clear where south Korea's loyalties are going to lie. Throughout
> Korea's history, they have been a tributary state to China (or
> Japan) and it looks like they are going back to that
> model.

When Moon is "dismissive" toward the USA, I assume those remarks are
targeted to his political base. Actions speak louder than words,
and I would point again to the THAAD deployment.

In fact, take another look at the article that I wrote last year:

** 29-Apr-19 World View -- South Korea's weapons industry boosted by end of North's 'Charm Offensive'
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e190429



The last section of that article describes South Korea's network of
anti-missile defenses. There are multiple layers of defense. The
Koreans are providing the KM-SAM Cheongung medium-range surface-to-air
missile system and the PIP missile interceptor. But the KM-SAM is
heavily dependent on working with two American anti-missile systems --
the THAAD and the Patriot.

So in addition to the multi-level anti-missile defenses, you have
29,000 American soldiers. That's a huge American presence, and that
isn't going away. So if Moon wants to say, "I don't like all that
American stuff here, but we're stuck with it" in order to appease
his political base, then I don't think it makes much difference.

You describe a North/South Korea confederation that sides with China
against Japan and Taiwan. This raises a number of questions in my
mind:

* You lived in Seoul for many years, so you have a feel for what the
South Korean people really want. What do the people really want?

* How is such a confederation possible without a North-South war?
Who would govern the confederation?

* At what point in your scenario would the American troops withdraw,
dismantling the anti-missile defense systems?

* You're drawing on historical analogies to describe "a blocking force
against Japan and/or Taiwan." How would that work? Would Korean
troops be involved against Japan or Taiwan?

* Why would South Korea side with China against Taiwan?
Reply


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