Generational Dynamics World View

[pbrower2a]

(06-16-2020, 01:47 AM)taramarie Wrote: Education only goes so far, pbrower. Life experience is also education and far more useful as it is real world experience. For instance as an example. I am studying the slovak language. That education can only go so far. Hearing those words used in the real world and learning context, how it is pronounced and done repetitively, that is how that will stick in my head. Education does not equal one is better. Life experience is education also and some people have done bloody well for themselves without degrees. I will give another example. I have a bachelor degree in multimedia design. I studied film and animation. Think i would gain employment? Nope.

Understood. Our economic system better resembles a casino than a rational market -- except that the economy ordinarily is expected to produce something. Casino gambling is a zero-sum game. For most people a college education (if they go that way) is the most expensive bet of their lives. Millions of people with college degrees find themselves fully qualified to do what they could do without a college degree. Even going into a skilled trade has its risks. If one has substandard aptitude, then one will fail. In either case -- it's off to a career in retail or in manufacturing labor. 

By the way -- congratulations on your efforts to learn Slovak. Even if it is a language spoken by few people, you expand your universe greatly by learning a Slavic language... any Slavic language.  

Quote:Firstly, the tools i need are in the thousands of dollars. Second of all, in my corner of the world what i trained for, there are not many opportunities for employment. What the fuck is the point of having a bachelor degree if one cannot use it? You need to stop equating education with success on a high horse because it means nothing if you cannot use those skills for building your life around it. It just means i have a big loan around my neck at present. Thankfully i have been lucky recently as my father in law has given me all the tools i need to make a start at what i studied and you know what? He built his company in something he didnt traditionally study in school, but from life experience....he is a successful millionare. Meanwhile my hubby's cousin who never went to school for animation now owns the most successful animation advertisement company in Bratislava and also is a multi millionaire. Give this some thought.

The value of a college education is that you get to challenge assumptions that you accepted smugly in K-12 education.  Some topics just aren't normally taught in K-12 education; they are survey courses in early-undergrad education such as economics, psychology, and philosophy. Maybe you can learn (with limitations) a language such as French or Spanish (usually the two easiest foreign languages for a native speaker of English) -- but not something that can really broaden your understanding of the world. If there were one language that I would now seek to learn, then it would be Russian. 

Ideally one learns certain things in college... that there is more to life than "sex and drugs and rock-n-roll" for which one needs no formal education. One can stand to learn that there is more to life than conspicuous consumption, bureaucratic power, and economic gain. Maybe one attends a good college and ends up becoming a K-12 teacher, a county agent, or a member of the clergy because one discovers that...

1. any two idiots can fornicate, which explains why there are so many idiots 
2. drugs and drunkenness are for fools
3. some music might better suit you (classical? jazz? folk?) than the Top 40 schlock
4. conspicuous consumption doesn't really impress people, and the word "luxury" is a sham
5. bureaucratic power is the ability to do barbarous things with a thin veneer of civilization 
6. a clean conscience is more precious than any car, jewel, mansion, etc.

OK, so you get a college degree and because the time is a recession all that you can do upon graduating is to work on an assembly line. But you have taken some courses in psychology, economics, philosophy, and even business. Guess what! You become the shop steward. Guess what! You are able to cut down the hollow arguments of people in $800 suits who rented a Cadillac or Lincoln at the airport to get to the office where the union contract is being hammered out. Maybe you can look at the financial statements of the company and recognize how profitable it is... and discover that your fellow workers are terribly underpaid. Maybe you are doing far more good for Humanity than those over-paid executives who wouldn't dream of any other life than the "American dream", One of those fellows got a new model when he was 40 -- and I don't mean a car. She looks much like his wife did twenty years ago... and his kids are spoiled brats. 

As for the K-12 teacher... little is more precious than the well-honed mind, is there? The county agent? Before you disparage agriculture, remember that nothing keeps the peace so effectively as a reliable supply of food. Clergy? You are the one who ends up visiting the terminally-ill in the nursing home and the one who consoles the grieving. You are the one who often ends up by default the consequences of choosing between right and wrong. Yes, it is morality that keeps us from doing horrible things to people.

[pbrower2a]

(06-14-2020, 09:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-14-2020, 07:36 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: So let me be clear.  You live in the CNN bubble, among people who have absolutely no idea what's going on, but sit there are tell each other how clever and intelligent you are, and how the people outside are stupid racist white supremacists.  I listen to all the channels, so I know.  CNN is a sewer, and being in the CNN bubble means that most Trump supporters are far more intelligent than you.

Well, again, if you have a political world view, how wacky you are hasn’t that much to do with intelligence.  If you buy into the CNN perspective or the Fox perspective, you are going to be called an idiot by those who have bought into the opposite regardless.  It does matter if you have a scientific world view, that you check what you are told against reality.  From that perspective, you have do do a lot of fact checking if you get into Fox or Trump.

CNN and even FoX News are good at reporting breaking news. It's when they go into analysis that they get into trouble. I rely as much on the AP news wires as possible because they come without analysis. It is impossible to spin mews that comes from blitz reporting. 

FoX Propaganda Channel has its political agenda in promoting a profits-first, profits-only culture and giving uncritical praise to anyone who promises to deliver such. CNN may not have as blatant bias, but it often has cranky people from both sides trying to spin news to fit their images. One channel gives propaganda, and the other gives a muddle.

OK, Rachel Maddow is about as left-wing as FoX analysts are right-wing... but she relies heavily on fact-checkers to create the basis of her conclusions. One checks what she says, and it proves factually right. She has her opinions, but she identifies those as such. Her conclusions prove defensible.

OK, so who on the Right does what Rachel Maddow does? The Right would be much more credible with someone like her than with Sean Hannity or "Rash Libel" (OK -- Rush Limbaugh).    

Quote:Your ignoring or disregarding facts that disagree with your ideology is part of this effect.  If the facts disagree with the ideology, the ideology censors the facts out.  This is not stupidity.  This is how humans use worldviews as a short cut to arrive at solutions to problems or versions of how reality works.  If you can view others as not being stupid, but as having conflicting worldviews, you have the problem of considering how warped your own worldview is. If you make the effort to understand how other's worldviews came into existence, of how their culture solved problems using a particular perspective, you can modify your own worldview to accept the wisdom, with or without caveats that it works better or ill under various conditions that one culture might see regularly, but another does not.

Even the generational cycle affects how people see the world. OK, that more than practically anything else. Maybe there won't be as sharp a divide thirty years from now between people who remember the Kennedy assassination and those who don't because that divide will --  but there is one now. Ethnicity is a factor; if you are a Japanese-American you probably never heard a polka as a child and if you are a Polish-American you never saw a bonsai tree in your house as a child even if the economic circumstances under which you were raised are very similar. (Polish-Americans are the second-most-successful white ethnic group in economic success in America, and it shows in educational and vocational attainment and avoiding criminal incarceration. At that Japanese-Americans are similar). Religion? There's a big difference between being a Methodist and a Muslim. Economic reality? If everyone that you know had to scrap for everything and still fall well short of some American dream that is simply middle-class, then your view of the world is very different from those who endured such struggles rarely if at all. Raw intelligence? Maybe there are things that dullards  will never get, but there are things that smart people can never tolerate as parts of their lives.   

Quote:But if you stick with one perspective, and call any other perspective stupid, you are going to miss a lot.

Nobody chooses the class, region, time, ethnicity, or level of intelligence into which he is born. Except for having a low level of intelligence (by definition), none of that is stupidity.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-16-2020, 11:16 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I rely as much on the AP news wires as possible because they come without analysis. It is impossible to spin mews that comes from blitz reporting. 

Just bookmarked AP news.  It echoed a few stories that caught my eye on CNN, so it could very well turn out to be a good source.

Never tried to spin a mew, though.   You are right, it seems impossible.  

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-16-2020, 10:44 AM)David Horn Wrote: High degrees of education and wealth attainment are neither mutually exclusive nor inclusive.  Yes, some degrees tend to track with high earning, but others don't.  The purpose of an education should be enlightenment, but most of us see the education-earning link instead.

Four years of one's life and putting one's self in considerable debt is a high price to pay for a degree these days. If it doesn't come with a good shot at employment, this seems like a luxury few can afford.

[David Horn]

(06-16-2020, 01:13 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-16-2020, 10:44 AM)David Horn Wrote: High degrees of education and wealth attainment are neither mutually exclusive nor inclusive.  Yes, some degrees tend to track with high earning, but others don't.  The purpose of an education should be enlightenment, but most of us see the education-earning link instead.

Four years of one's life and putting one's self in considerable debt is a high price to pay for a degree these days.  If it doesn't come with a good shot at employment, this seems like a luxury few can afford.

Sad but true.  I'm not sure we'll ever return to education-as-enlightenment, but we do need to encourage (force?) a bit of old fashioned civics and language education on the general public, or we'll become a nation of Know-Nothings.  Never mind. We already are.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-16-2020, 01:21 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-16-2020, 01:13 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-16-2020, 10:44 AM)David Horn Wrote: High degrees of education and wealth attainment are neither mutually exclusive nor inclusive.  Yes, some degrees tend to track with high earning, but others don't.  The purpose of an education should be enlightenment, but most of us see the education-earning link instead.

Four years of one's life and putting one's self in considerable debt is a high price to pay for a degree these days.  If it doesn't come with a good shot at employment, this seems like a luxury few can afford.

Sad but true.  I'm not sure we'll ever return to education-as-enlightenment, but we do need to encourage (force?) a bit of old fashioned civics and language education on the general public, or we'll become a nation of Know-Nothings.  Never mind. We already are.

The G.I. Bill rewarded the many with a chance at education-as-enlightenment. Cannot say the GIs of the time didn’t deserve the reward after the Great Depression and World War II. With other country’s manufacturing bombed out and colonial Imperialism killed by the offer of lend lease forgiveness, the US could afford it.

But that was a time when America was Great, a time that may never come again. Education is not an unrewarding prize, but it is on the verge of becoming a racket, a way for mediocre schools to collect lots of cash.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I once compared high school experiences with my mother. She mentioned classes that her high school had that mine did not, such as geography and penmanship.

It didn't seem like my high school offered any class hers did not. I got the suspicion that a high school education had deteriorated by the time of my youth.

If so, college has become a crutch, to fill in the gaps caused by a deficient high school education.

Many moons ago I read Is There Life After High School by Ralph Keyes. As I recall, he basically described high school as a social setting for the in group, the jocks and the cheer leaders. Not a place for education, not really.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Ok, this is a radical idea, perhaps unacceptable to many. What if U.S. high schools were upgraded into educational institutions?

Add classes in penmanship, geography, civics, etc.

As for foreign languages, start classes earlier. I have read books by linguists, and it seems that the ability to acquire additional languages peaks at age 7. BTW, teach the kids cursive writing.

[Tim Randal Walker]

BTW, I recall that I became concerned about making a living during my final year of high school. One really needs to start thinking about that by that time.

So I can hardly blame people who focus on that by the time of high school graduation. (Its not their fault that high school has deteriorated, its the fault of their elders). It seems that for those who choose liberal arts degrees these days, it means starting out with a deep hole of debt and no marketable job skills.

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-16-2020, 02:29 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: BTW, I recall that I became concerned about making a living during my final year of high school.  One really needs to start thinking about that by that time.

So I can hardly blame people who focus on that by the time of high school graduation.  (Its not their fault that high school has deteriorated, its the fault of their elders).  It seems that for those who choose liberal arts degrees these days, it means starting out with a deep hole of debt and no marketable job skills.

The students are not entirely without blame.  I seem to remember a lot of teachers force feeding information into minds much more concerned with social issues, sports, cheerleading routines, etc...  You get tired of it, eventually.

[pbrower2a]

In any event, college education has elite characteristics. Dullards invariably fail at it. That is why selective colleges rely upon board scores for admissions and even community colleges use board scores for guidance. I am more familiar with the SAT (which ranges from 200 to 800 for both verbal [SAT-V] and mathematical [SAT-M]) Conventionally one adds the two to get a composite score.

For that sum, 400 is the absolute bottom, and people scoring under 900 in total are at the 23rd percentile among college students taking the test and 29th on a national scale. People likely to score that low generally don't take the SAT and generally don't complete any degree program.

Any college worth attending demands both competence and effort for success... and the old-fashioned liberal-arts school, the old model, wasn;t for dullards. But note well: there are plenty of jobs in which the stupider one is the happier one will be doing them.

OK, getting into a selective college or university is itself quite an achievement. Graduating from an accredited college or universit of any kind is a genuine achievement. Someone who has done so has shown something out of the ordinary. Maybe it does not mean that one has specific knowledge immediately useful on the job, but it does mean that one can learn certain things not taught in college. It also suggests that one pays attention to detail and has some persistence with something intellectually difficult but still possible.

What, ideally, is the purpose of a college education? To make big money? No. Skilled trades pay better than most college majors. Owning and operating a small business may be even better for long-term earnings. It is to learn how to live well with resources available. With all the sophisticated technology available, people need to learn to separate the chaff from the jewels in life. This is especially true with the Internet. There's really-sick stuff on the Internet, and people who dive into that sewer (let us say Holocaust denial) and take its contents uncritically have big problems.

[David Horn]

(06-16-2020, 02:29 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: ...  It seems that for those who choose liberal arts degrees these days, it means starting out with a deep hole of debt and no marketable job skills.

They actually have good skills, but ones no longer recognized as such.  It's sad.  Many of the public intellectuals of the past (and a few around today) had liberal educations: study of the classics, philosophy, civics (or political science as it's known today) and history.  The Brits still do, to some extent. Mostly, we create specialists these days. Liberal Arts is the ultimate generalist field -- broad rather than deep. They lack one of the worst traits among the educated: 20/20 tunnel vision.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN asks, Why are China and India fighting over an inhospitable strip of the Himalayas?

In this telling of the events, the troops indeed seem to have a feeling of xenophobia, of not liking their rivals, but apparently two nuclear powered countries found their troops at odds using fists and knives.  The governments seem to be trying to defuse it.  Frankly, the land is sorta worthless.  Reinforcements are slowed by the need for troops to adjust to the extreme altitude.  Staying there in winter is rough enough without having to fight a war too.  There is just no racket.  Nobody is turning a profit using violence.  The land serves no useful purpose to keep.  There is no reason to spend resources in that godforsaken place.  The status quo works in both sides interests, but the troops have a fistfight every several decades.

Apparently, the greatest potential conflict is officers yelling at their men.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 18-Jun-2020 World View: We'll meet again

Vera Lynn, aged 103, died today.






Vera Lynn, We'll Meet Again, from 1941.

*** Dame Vera Lynn: Stars pay tribute to singer who 'was an
inspiration to us all' 18 June 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-53091957

[Tim Randal Walker]

This was part of the sound track for Dr. Strangelove, at the end of the film.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 18-Jun-2020 World View: P/E ratio

Higgenbotham Wrote:> If you asked him about mean reversion, he would probably say
> adjust the mean PE up to 22 and carry on. Also, not to worry, LEI
> will mean revert next month, following the stock market.

You're absolutely right. These analysts on CNBC and FBN and elsewhere
on tv are complete airheads. I just heard Mike Santoli on CNBC react
to a statement by Jeremy Grantham that we're currently in a "Real
McCoy bubble" by saying some nonsense like most investors are being
very careful about what stocks they buy, so the current atmosphere has
absolutely no resemblance to a bubble.

As you point out, nobody every asks about the ACTUAL VALUE of a stock.
I like to give the example of buying an apartment building. You
estimate the rents and expenses for the next 30 years, do a present
value computation, and that is the ACTUAL VALUE of the apartment
building from an investor point of view.

The only thing comparable in the world of stocks is the P/E ratio,
which historically is 14. So the fair value of a stock is 14 times
reported earnings, but as you say, that's ignored. If the P/E ratio
today is 22, then the fair value of the stock is 22 times earnings.
I wish I were joking, but I'm not. These people are airheads.

Well, I shouldn't talk. I compare these people to myself. I'm a
pariah who tells what's actually going on, and so I'm hated and
shunned. Santoli is an airhead, but he tells everyone what they want
to hear. So Santoli is loved by everyone.

Gee, I wonder what it would be like to be loved by everyone? Is it
too late to predict that the Dow will go up to 100,000?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Jun-20 World View -- Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China
  
• What happened in Ladakh on Monday evening?
  
• The core principle of Generational Dynamics
  
• Brief list of Chinese Communist Party crises
  

****
**** Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China
****


This is the kind of crude weapon, made with iron rods studded with nails, used by Chinese soldiers on Monday to kill Indian soldiers, according to India.

Anti-China protests have erupted in cities across India by people
demanding retaliation for the killing of 20 Indian soldiers on Monday
in the growing Ladakh border confrontation that we described last
weekend. ( "13-Jun-20 World View -- China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh"
)

The protesters are burning the Chinese flag and calling for boycotts
of China-made products.

However, the calls for revenge grew even louder on Thursday, when
a photo emerged of a weapon used by Chinese soldiers to kill Indian
soldiers. The weapon, pictured at the beginning of this article,
is made with iron rods studded with nails, and is being called
"barbarous" by some Indian officials.

Former leader of the opposition, Rahul Gandhi, also demanded fiercer
retaliation from the government.

<QUOTE>"It is now clear that China has committed an
unforgivable war crime. The Chinese have used bayonets, nail
studded iron rods, wooden clubs wrapped with barbed wire ... to
mount a surprise attack on our unarmed soldiers."<END QUOTE>

Some MPs are demanding that Indian army forces invade the
Chinese-controlled territory Aksai Chin, a disputed region on the
Chinese side of the border. According to Jamyang Tsering Namgyal, the
MP for the Ladakh region:

<QUOTE>"We want a one-time solution. Not just the people of
Ladakh but people of the country too want a one-time solution.
After the sacrifice of our soldiers, I am starting to think the
time has come to take Aksai Chin back."<END QUOTE>

****
**** What happened in Ladakh on Monday evening?
****

Several days have passed, but there's very little confirmed
information about what took place.

Here's what we do know:

• 20 Indian soldiers were killed.
  
• There's no information on the number of soldiers injured.
  
• There's no statement on how the clashes started.
  
• There's no statement on how the clashes escalated.
  
• The Indian army says that China also suffered casualties,
  but China has not confirmed any casualties. According to some
  reports, about 40 Chinese soldiers were killed.
  
• No guns were fired by either side. Both sides are honoring
  a decades-old agreement that everyone be unarmed. Firing a gun
  would be a declaration of war.
  
• The Indian Army says that no soldiers were captured. However,
  early Friday morning there were reports that the Chinese released
  10 captured Indian soldiers.

In the absence of statements by either the Indian or Chinese
side giving details of what happened, unauthorized reports are
beginning to appears, and they are highly explosive. Here's
one from India's News18:

<QUOTE>"Furious hand-to-hand fighting raged across the Galwan
river valley for over eight hours on Monday night, as People’s
Liberation Army assault teams armed with iron rods as well as
batons wrapped in barbed wire hunted down and slaughtered troops
of the 16 Bihar Regiment, a senior government official ... has
told News18.

The savage combat, with few parallels in the history of modern
armies, is confirmed to have claimed the lives of at least 23
Indian soldiers, including 16 Bihar’s commanding officer, Colonel
Santosh Babu, many because of protracted exposure to sub-zero
temperatures the Indian Army said late on Tuesday.

“Even unarmed men who fled into the hillsides were hunted down and
killed,” one officer said. “The dead include men who jumped into
the Galwan river in a desperate effort to escape.”

Government sources say at least another two dozen soldiers are
battling life-threatening injuries, and over 110 have needed
treatment. “The toll will likely go up,” a military officer with
knowledge of the issue said."<END QUOTE>

In the absence of official statements, it's impossible to determine
the veracity of this narrative, but it almost doesn't matter, because
this situation is rapidly growing out of control.

****
**** The core principle of Generational Dynamics
****

Indian and Chinese officials claim that they're conducting ongoing
negotiations to bring the crisis to an end and pull troops back on
both sides.

In dozens of articles in the last few years, I've stated and restated
the core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a
dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by
generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant,
except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people.

We're seeing that applied in this case. According to reports, Chinese
army teams hunted down, attacked and killed Indian soldiers, using
barbarous weapons like the one shown at the beginning of this article.
On the Indian side, we see increasing demands for retaliation and
revenge.

Recall what happened in 1937 in the Marco Polo Bridge incident that I
described in my article last weekend.
The Japanese and Chinese negotiated a settlement, but both
sides brought in reinforcements. Within a month, they were at full
scale war, leading soon after to the Rape of Nanking.

That's not to say India and China will be at war within a month, but
it does say that they're following a familiar pattern that leads to
full-scale war. If both the Chinese and Indian armies are pulled back
immediately, then a war can be avoided, but I see little desire on
either side to do so, or to do anything but escalate.

It's worth noting that the India government has ordered the armed
forces to make emergency procurements to stock up its war reserves in
case of war in Ladakh. These preparations even include the deployment
of navy military assets near the Malacca Strait, which would be a
focal point for any future India-China war.

****
**** Brief list of Chinese Communist Party crises
****

The following is a reference list of the major crises
currently being faced by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and
dictator Xi Jinping:

• Dozens of countries are blaming China for purposely spreading
  the Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) to other countries, so that China
  wouldn't have to deal with it alone. Attempts by China to blame the
  United States have backfired. This is a much bigger problem than you
  might think, since it attacks the competency of Xi Jinping.
  
• And now, China is facing a major new outbreak of Covid-19 in
  Beijing, after having declared the city to be free of the virus.
  
• North Korea's government appears to be increasingly chaotic,
  and an unstable North Korean government is a big problem for the CCP.
  
• The India-China border crisis in Ladakh is growing.
  
• Hong Kong pro-democracy protesters are starting up again, after
  being quiet because of Covid-19. The new proposed security bill is
  provoking unrest in Hong Kong, and a great deal of international
  concern.
  
• Taiwan pro-independence activists are becoming emboldened
  by the situation in Hong Kong.
  
• China is receiving increased international condemnation for
  the Uighur concentration camps in Xinjiang province.
  
• One issue that's seldom talked about is that many African
  countries have huge debt obligations to the Chinese, thanks
  to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Debt Trap Diplomacy,
  and because of the Covid-19 crises, many countries are missing
  their debt payments. These countries are pressuring China to
  forgive or postpone much of the debt. Laughably, the Chinese are
  asking the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international
  organizations to bail out these African countries, so that they
  can make their payments to China.

So those who think that America and the West have a lot of problems
are absolutely correct, but they do not have nearly as many problems
as China, which has been turning into an international pariah.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

• Ladakh / Galwan Valley: Image appears to show nail-studded rods used in India-China brawl (BBC, 18-Jun-2020)
  
• Anti-China Protests Across India, Delhi's Defence Colony Declares 'War' (New Delhi TV, 18-Jun-2020)
  
• India should curb ‘boycott China’ voices after border clash (Global Times, Beijing, 17-Jun-2020)
  
• Fighters, warships moved to forward bases after bloodiest day in Ladakh (India Times, 18-Jun-2020)
  
• WHO map shows parts of Ladakh as Chinese territory (India Times, 29-Apr-2020)
  
• PLA Death Squads Hunted Down Indian Troops in Galwan in Savage Execution Spree, Say Survivors (News18, India, 18-Jun-2020)
  
• Indian MPs demand government take revenge on China after photographs emerge of spiked club used in clash (Telegraph, London, 18-Jun-2020)
  
• China releases 10 Indian soldiers after border battle (AFP, 19-Jun-2020)

Related Articles:

• China and India mobilize thousands of troops along border in Ladakh (13-Jun-2020)
  
  
• Generational Theory: Is nuclear war with China inevitable? (17-May-2020)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Ladakh,
Rahul Gandhi, Aksai Chin, Jamyang Tsering Namgyal,
Marco Polo Bridge Incident, Japan, Rape of Nanking,
Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19, North Korea,
Hong Kong, Taiwan, Uighurs, Xinjiang province,
Africa, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Debt Trap Diplomacy

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John J. Xenakis
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[Tim Randal Walker]

Peter Zeihan (zeihan.com) has used the term "imperial predation" in his writing. He was making a historical reference. But Debt Trap Diplomacy could be described as a form of imperial predation, as devised by a loan shark

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Jun-2020 World View: Russia and China

Navigator Wrote:> I thought it might help explain my points of view if I explained a
> bit how I came to Generational Dynamics, and how my views align
> (or do not align) with this system/philosophy.

> As a hobbyist historian, I found it curious that the major events
> in US History seemed to follow an 80 year cycle. 80 years between
> the Revolution and the Civil War. 80 years between the Civil War
> and World War Two. To me, things like this are not chance.

> I believe that at the most fundamental level, there is either a
> “Higher Power” or everything happens “by chance”. I think that if
> you don’t believe in a “Higher Power” then you believe that the
> Universe/world/mankind were created “by chance”, the so-called
> random events that would need to occur for life to exist.

> Personally, I believe that there is a “Higher Power”.
> Furthermore, I believe that this “Higher Power’s” greatest
> creation is not celestial bodies or orbiting planets, but rather
> the History of this World.

> So, when I looked at the cycles that seemed to be occurring, I
> found that John had developed a good model for explaining the
> stages of the repeating cycle and how different
> nationalities/cultures can be in different stages at any given
> point in time.

> I was further enamored of John’s distillation of current world
> events. His daily articles usually had more insight into what was
> actually happening than bundles of newspapers and innumerable
> websites. BTW, I miss being able to read new ones every day,
> though I certainly understand why John has had to cut back.

> I am in agreement with John over the next basic steps, financial
> calamity and World War.

> However, I do think, in contrast to John, that the “other side” in
> the war will be a China/Russia main alliance. I, personally,
> don’t have an opinion on how the Sunni/Shiite thing will split in
> the war, as I consider both (currently) so far off base as to want
> nothing to do with either faction. I do have hopes for Iran to
> fix itself, as Generational Dynamics predicts, but I think it will
> take Iran’s involvement in a major war for this to happen.

> One of the reasons I believe in the China/Russia alliance is my
> personal belief that Europe is not going to remain untouched by a
> major war between primarily US and China (or, as John predicts,
> between US-Russia and China). In fact, I think that a lot of the
> upcoming future war will take place in Central Europe, and that WW
> III will have a two-front dynamic for the US that WW II did.

> I believe that God (the “Higher Power”) provides guidance and
> clues regarding what is going to happen next. In some way, I
> believe that what will happen next is similar to what happened in
> the last two World Wars.

> To me, the First World War was about the destruction of the great
> absolute monarchies (Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Germany). The
> war saw their demise. There followed, for Central Europe, a
> period of near anarchy, of revolutions, coups, and financial
> chaos. And out of this arose a number of dictators who were far
> worse than the absolute monarchs; Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.

> This is roughly what I think will happen with WW III. The next
> world war will utterly destroy the socialist states. They will no
> longer be able to provide for their citizens. This is because the
> financial system as we know it will be completely bankrupted and
> unable to continue after WW III.

> Even with the impending financial meltdown due to current
> conditions, I think that something will be done to keep it limping
> along until the war, and then there will be “emergency
> measures”. But a global war will see the world end up financially
> like the Confederacy at the end or Germany or France in 1919.

> We have allowed the social structures that could compensate for
> these calamities to decay. This will lead to a post WW III period
> for Europe that will be FAR worse than the post WW I period. And
> the individuals with power that will emerge out of this anarchy, I
> believe, will be far worse than Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.

> As bad as this sounds, I believe it is all part of the plan of
> history designed by God. I believe that history was designed to
> fulfill a purpose, and that it has a culmination. In the end, I
> believe the culmination results in a “greater good”, but it will
> be an extremely trying and difficult period to experience first
> hand.

Interesting.

But there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Russia and China
will be allied in a generational crisis war. As I've written before,
the Russians have hated the Chinese ever since the Mongols defeated
the Chinese in 1206, and then went on to attack and conquer almost all
the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. There is no possibility that
China and Russia will remain "strategic partners" for long. In fact,
Soviet Russia and China almost went to full-scale war as recently as
the 1960s.

Furthermore, China is Pakistan's "all-weather friend," whose
friendship is "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger
than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight." And India
will be fighting a two-front war with Pakistan and China.

China is very closely allied with Pakistan, which is very closely
allied with the Sunni states. China and India are bitter enemies, as
are Pakistan and India. Russia and India are very closely allied, and
India is very closely allied with Iran, as Hindus have been allied
with Shia Muslims going back to the Battle of Karbala in 680.
Connecting the dots, the US is going to be allied with India, Russia
and Iran, versus China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Muslim states. If
that seems surprising, remember that Russia was our bitter enemy
before WW II, was our ally during WW II, and was our bitter enemy
after WW II, so you can't judge from today's political alignments how
nations will act when they're facing an existential crisis in the form
of a generational crisis war.

If China and Russia are allied today, it's purely ephemeral and
political. They're particularly allied in the United Nations, because
they're both committing international crimes by illegal annexations,
and then supporting each other in the Security Council. This is honor
among thieves, but it won't last the first shot being fired.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 20-Jun-2020 World View: India's Narendra Modi pacifies the Ladakh situation

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to tamp down the
nationalism and xenophobia that were stirred up by the horrific attack
in Ladakh earlier this week by Chinese soldiers, killing 20 India
soldiers.

In a speech given on Friday, Modi said:

Quote:> "Neither is anyone inside our territory nor is any of
> our post captured.

> Twenty of our bravehearts were martyred in Ladakh but not before
> they taught a lesson to those who raised an eye at Bharat Mata.

> I want to assure you that our forces will spare no effort to
> protect our nation. Today, we have the capability that no one can
> look at even an inch of our territory.

> While we have given a free hand to our armed forces,
> diplomatically too we have made our stand clear to China. India
> wants peace and friendship but protecting its sovereignty is
> supreme.

> Because of new infrastructure, especially along the LAC, our
> patrolling capability has gone up. Because of that alertness has
> gone up and events happening on the LAC are being
> reported."

(LAC stands for Line of Actual Control, referring to the nominal
boundary between the two countries.)

Modi was responding to widespread protests across India on Friday, and
demands by MP's to get revenge and retaliation against the Chinese.
Modi was apparently trying to pacify these demands.

** 19-Jun-20 World View -- Nationwide protests in India demand revenge against China
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200619

• Iron rods studded with steel nails, used by Chinese soldiers
  to kill Indian soldiers

Modi's speech was ridiculed by his political opposition, especially
the implication that the Chinese had not entered Indian territory.
Opposition MP Rahul Gandhi tweeted: "PM has surrendered Indian
territory to Chinese aggression. If the land was Chinese: Why were our
soldiers killed? Where were they killed."

Gandhi was alluding to the fact that neither Chinese nor India
officials have made any public statements about what actually
happened. Unconfirmed reports claim that Chinese soldiers crossed
into Indian territory and unarmed Indian soldiers with barbaric
weapons, including iron rod studded with steel nails, killing 20.
No deaths of Chinese soldiers have been confirmed.

Modi's office posted his speech on the Chinese social media app
WeChat. However, Chinese censors deleted the speech, for "national
security" reasons. Chinese officials are apparently taking steps to
prevent China's public from learning anything about the incident.

There's also the strange situation that media reports on Friday say
that China has returned 10 Indian soldiers who were captured on
Monday, but neither the Chinese nor the Indians are willing to comment
on it.

This is certainly not the end of this story. The barbaric actions by
the Chinese soldiers indicate a fury and hatred of Indians that go far
beyond a desire to take control of a small strip of land. And Indians
will be certain to seek revenge for the barbaric attack at some time
in the not too distant future.

---- Sources:

-- India / Ladakh / "Nobody Inside Our Borders, Our Posts Have Not
Been Occupied": PM Modi
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/our-post...sh-2249159
(New Delhi TV, 20-Jun-2020)

-- ‘Mischievous’: PMO responds to barbs over Modi remarks on Ladakh
face-off
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new...6u0yH.html
(Hindustan Times, 20-Jun-2020)

-- India posts PM Modi’s remarks on Ladakh face-off, China’s WeChat
app deletes it
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new...rMgVP.html
(Hindustan Times, 20-Jun-2020)