Generational Dynamics World View

[Bob Butler 54]

Hmm…

The way I read it, the ‘massive evidence’ of voter fraud is being presented to the red media, but not in court.  This is because a lawyer deliberately lying to a judge can easily end up disbarred.  As I heard it, this is why Trump is one win and eighty losses in the courts trying to overturn the election.  Trump's lawyers are literally refusing to present his lies to a judge.  Trump is making more money with the false claims about the election than he did for the election.  It is all quite literally a scam, with the Trump camp trying to finance his debits with it, but his ideological followers are eating it up.

The Republicans shifted from being the allies of the abolitionists to being endorsed by the KKK.  At the time of the Civil War, the Robber Barons and the Republicans were the progressives.  They were for expanding the country and developing the industrial revolution.  The conservatives were the agricultural landowners who wanted the old power structure based on slavery to stay the same.  The Republicans have always been the party of the Robber Barons, the elites, but they have swapped positions on racial policies.  They are now the southern, rural, racist party as well as the elite party.  Claiming credit for the abolitionist position way back in Lincoln’s time is more than a little disingenuous.

That is why I prefer the Cousin’s War’s perspective, that the more WIERD urban roundhead culture that settled around Boston is opposed by the more tribal, rural cavalier culture that settled in the south.  That became the basis for the red blue divide.  This is not to say that the cavalier culture and the strength of their attributes has not contributed to the US.

Again, the Boogaloo Bois, the looters, the bad cops, the Proud Boys, the Wolverine Watchmen, each had their own reasons to promote violence and lawlessness that had nothing to do with the Black Lives Matter protests.  By refusing to acknowledge the motivations involved, you are failing to understand what is going on.

Generational Dynamics involves a good deal of tribal thinking.  America is presented as being for the elites and cavalier culture, with the working man and minorities being the enemy.  The WEIRD people are more with the ‘all men are created equal’ roundhead culture.  Tribal thinking features a good deal of xenophobia, of hating those not of your tribe.  The WIERD think differently.  Their minds are shaped a different way.

If you don’t try to understand that difference, you and Generational Dynamics will present ideological errors that are obvious to those who think WIERD.

[David Horn]

(12-06-2020, 07:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Hmm…

The way I read it, the ‘massive evidence’ of voter fraud is being presented to the red media, but not in court.  This is because a lawyer deliberately lying to a judge can easily end up disbarred.  As I heard it, this is why Trump is one win and eighty losses in the courts trying to overturn the election.  Trump's lawyers are literally refusing to present his lies to a judge.  Trump is making more money with the false claims about the election than he did for the election.  It is all quite literally a scam, with the Trump camp trying to finance his debits with it, but his ideological followers are eating it up...

And in fact, the show was the full intent.  Trump needs to keep his minions shaken not stirred, and this is the way he chose. It fits his style.  Assume it will continue until the next episode begins on January 20th -- 21st at the latest.  Assume the worst; it seems to be the most reliable choice.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-07-2020, 04:22 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-06-2020, 07:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Hmm…

The way I read it, the ‘massive evidence’ of voter fraud is being presented to the red media, but not in court.  This is because a lawyer deliberately lying to a judge can easily end up disbarred.  As I heard it, this is why Trump is one win and eighty losses in the courts trying to overturn the election.  Trump's lawyers are literally refusing to present his lies to a judge.  Trump is making more money with the false claims about the election than he did for the election.  It is all quite literally a scam, with the Trump camp trying to finance his debits with it, but his ideological followers are eating it up...

And in fact, the show was the full intent.  Trump needs to keep his minions shaken not stirred, and this is the way he chose. It fits his style.  Assume it will continue until the next episode begins on January 20th -- 21st at the latest.  Assume the worst; it seems to be the most reliable choice.

Yep.  As well as collecting money, he is keeping his base misinformed and mad.  He is building up ratings for whatever TV network he joins after the inauguration.  He is keeping the base tied to him, keeping his hold over the establishment, fighting the battle for control of the Republican Party.

I don't think Trumpism will be big enough to win in any but the most red state, but he will kill the careers of many a Republican.  You could either dump your link to Trump and find yourself facing a loyalist candidate in the next primary, or keep your loyalty and face a Democrat in the general election.  There are also his legal problems, his debt problem, and a chance that the Democrats and the crisis mentality might catch.

I don't see it ending well for Trump, but it is typical form for him to play it out.

[pbrower2a]

(12-06-2020, 06:16 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 06-Dec-2020 World View: What is Trump trying to achieve?

richard5za Wrote:>   I don't live in USA and I am very curious: Has anyone any idea of
>   what Trump and legal team is trying to achieve?

Navigator Wrote:>   The actual selection of the president in the USA has not yet
>   happened.  The USA is a democratic REPUBLIC.  This means that
>   people vote for others who will actually select the president.
>   Those that select the president are called Electors.  They are
>   members of what is called the Electoral College.

>   Each state has to certify that the election was valid. In doing
>   so, the state selects the Electors for the candidate they certify
>   has won the presidential election in their state.  Most states
>   have laws that require the Electors to vote for the certified
>   winning candidate.  But some do not.

>   The Electoral College then gathers, I think on December 14, and
>   vote on who will actually become president.  If more than 50% of
>   Electors do not vote for a candidate, the selection of the
>   president is instead made by the House of Representatives, with
>   each state delegation receiving 1 vote.  The winner is then the
>   candidate who gets 26 state delegations to vote for him.

>   What Trump's legal team is trying to do is: First and foremost, to
>   stop states from certifying elections that result in the selection
>   of Electors for Biden.  But enough have now certified Biden
>   Electors that he will have more than 50%.  So now they are trying
>   to "un-certify" elections, or they are trying to convince
>   Republican controlled state legislatures to ignore the election
>   results and instead pick the Electors themselves (which they can
>   do).

>   Second, they will try to convince Biden Electors to not vote for
>   Biden but for Trump or even someone else. This is what Hillary's
>   people tried to do in 2016. There are often a couple of Electors
>   (from states that don't have laws forcing their vote) that will
>   vote for some alternate choice, but usually only when the
>   candidate of their party has lost anyway.

>   The idea here is to, either by method 1 or 2 above, have the
>   election sent to the House of Representatives, which has a
>   majority of Republican state delegations, and they would then
>   select Trump.

>   These very unusual situations happened twice, in 1824 and 1876.

>   But now, with the selection of more than 270 Electors for Biden,
>   the whole thing is basically over for Trump.

>   NOW, and very dangerous, some people are saying that Trump should
>   declare martial law and re-do the election.  The military would
>   NEVER do this, and Trump would end up being tried for treason
>   (which carries the death penalty) if he did this.  The US military
>   swears allegiance to the Constitution, not the President.  And
>   this would be an attack on the Constitution.

Thank you for this detailed explanation.  There is more to be said,
however.  The amount of evidence of cheating and fraud is growing
every day, though it may or may not be enough to affect the results.
Trump is not planning anything as ridiculous as declaring martial law,
but he is starting a new political movement, based on the enormous
anger and fury held by most of the 74 million people who voted for
Trump, and who believe that the Democrats cheated and stole the
election.

A vote counts the same as another (with an allowance for the distortions of the Electoral College in the Presidential election), whether it is cast by a fanatical supporter or someone mildly supportive. A vote cast by someone who tosses a coin to make a decision (yuck!) means as much as one cast in due deliberation. 

Anger and fury are questionable values, to put it tamely, in democratic politics. 81 million people voted for Joe Biden.  The 2020 Presidential election was at least as clean with respect to the process of election as the 2016 election. Electoral fraud is becoming increasingly difficult because of rigid rules of custody of voting devices and ballot materials in accordance with procedures modeled after those involving the accounting for cash and high-value items (jewels, computer chips, rare coins and stamps, expensive wine vintages, and certain clothing items). The number of votes cast must match (or be very close to) the number of voters. Ballots have watermarks on their paper as do legal documents and personal checks. Dead people might vote, but the vote of someone who casts an absentee ballot and then dies before the election will be disqualified. (In my community, the Township clerk reads the obituaries to match names and birth-dates with deaths to prevent such mischief as someone casting a vote on behalf of a deceased person). Classic cheats such as machine tampering and stuffing the ballot box (or removing ballots cast) are practically impossible. 

If Donald Trump seeks to set up a new political movement, then such is his right. He has his fanatical supporters, his personality cult so to speak. Someone will inherit it if and when he croaks. 

If I can accept that Donald Trump, a thoroughly vile and disreputable person could get elected as he was in 2016, then if he lost by the same rules four years later... then many of us will suggest that "$#!+ happens in years four apart.   

Quote:This morning I watched George Stephanolopous's news program.  The
thing that stuck out in my mind was the several occasions when
Stephanolopous angrily yelled that the election was settled.  I
consider those angry outbursts to be admissions of guilt.
Stephanolopous and the others claimed that Trump was endangering
American democracy, and was making America look foolish in the eyes of
the world.

...and I say calmly that the election is settled. To claim that this election is a sham is to say that almost every other American election is a sham. I can even use the generational theory to explain the difference between 2016 and 2020: voters over 55 are now about 5% more Republican than Democratic, and voters under 40 are about 20% more Democratic than Republican. Based on the assumption that people are in the electorate for about sixty years on average, that means that roughly 1.6% of the electorate, almost entirely people over age 55, die off each year. New voters are almost entirely under 40. Over four years that is a shift of 1.6% of the electorate from R to D, and that is enough to explain how Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin went from Trump to Biden. (Doing so crudely would have suggested that Biden would win Florida, but Trump ended up losing Arizona, Georgia, and the Second District of Nebraska instead). 

One of the oldest realities of politics, and it seems to apply in all countries, is that renters and debtors tend to be on the Left side of the political divide because they have less stake in the prosperity of ownership than do lessors and creditors. Most people have more respect for some capitalists, typically those who create and innovate, than for those who simply charge the client whatever they can. If you are a software engineer in Silicon Valley, then most likely you are paying more than half your income to a landlord who does not innovate, and typically has his tenants in a bidding war against each other. Don't like this rent? Then go to the Hell that is St. Louis, Misery, you unappreciative ingrate! Landlords like I own your opportunity to work in this town, and we have the right to everything we can bleed you for! That is not a good way to be loved as a capitalist, but landlords are not leasing overpriced apartments to people to get love from tenants. A second factor is debt. Whether one is in debt to an employer (a commonplace for agricultural laborers through the ages) or to a bank so that one could get a college degree that allows one to hold a non-menial job, one has every cause to want one's debt to be trivialized through inflation. If one holds the debt one wants that debt to hurt -- to be the figurative pound of flesh. The capitalist who innovates and makes the world better is more widely admired  than the one who simply enforces and exploits a bidding war in a race to the bottom for all but himself. 

The Millennial Generation faces the highest rents in American history and is most heavily in debt of any generation. It has little stake in American plutocracy in contrast to older generations more likely to be creditors and landlords. 

Except for the Presidency, 2020 was overall a status quo election with an allowance for the generational change in the electorate.   

Quote:Stephanolopous and other Democrats, led by shithead Adam Schiff and
Nancy Pelosi, have been relentless assholes (RAs) for four years.  The
RAs never acknowledged Trump's legitimacy, they brought one ridiculous
charge after another, knowing that they were false charges to try to
get him out of office.  The RAs were completely humiliated by the
farcical impeachment trial, but that didn't stop them.  They say and
believe that Trump supporters are ignoramuses and evil bigots.  And in
the last four years, these relentless assholes never once worried
about endangering American democracy, or making America look foolish in
the eyes of the world.  So now when the RAs accuse the Republicans of
"endangering democracy," the response to the Democrats is likely to be
"Fuck you, asshole."

Donald Trump is a racist and a religious bigot, and his protest that he is the least bigoted person in the world is like the claim of some inmate at an insane asylum that he is the only sane person there (including the staff, although I would expect the staff to go nuts over time).  Donald Trump is a thoroughly vile person who has said inflammatory things, which is par for a shock jock like Rush Limbaugh (to whom I refer to as "Rash Libel", which is one of the cleaner, but fitting derogatory monikers that one could place on him) If you want a generational angle to Donald Trump, then he exemplifies the worst traits that Howe and Strauss associate with Idealist generations of the past (ruthlessness, arrogance, and selfishness) without two of the usual virtues of Idealist leaders (erudition and principle). He is decisive, but he is decisively wrong due to his vices and his lack of respect for the usual decencies of life. 

This man is a serial adulterer, a liar, a cheat, and a consort with organized crime. He has had to pay hush money to a porn star. His purported competence as a businessman is suspect. Really good businessmen do not try their hands at other things marginally related to what they do. James Cash Penney didn't get involved in the grocery business. Henry Ford never invested in an airline. Ray Kroc did not put gasoline pumps in front of his fast-food places. Sam Walton never bought a bank or insurance company -- and neither does Jeff Bezos. Ross Perot didn't go into the entertainment business. Warren Buffet stayed clear of high technology because he does not understand it. Dave Thomas did not try to enter the 'upscale' dining business.  Trump's TV program is pure schlock, reality television that exposes the sadism of this horrible man. (OK, it is impossible to be a sadist and a good person!) It never took me long to "fire" The Apprentice with my remote control. He has been rich only because he was born to riches; he has been rescued from failure; he has been involved with gangster.  

Quote:It's important to remember that this actually has nothing to do with
Trump, as I've been writing for over ten years.  During the Obama
administration, when they still loved Trump because he was a TV star,
the Democrats had a vitriolic hatred of the "Tea Partiers," whom they
described in highly abusive terms, highlighted by the word
"teabaggers," which is as bad an insult as the n-word.  Hillary
referred to them later as "basket of deplorables -- racist, sexist,
homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it."  For the past
four years, the RA Democrats have constantly described all Trump
supporters as "white supremacists."  But this is not because of Trump.
This is because of the innate hatred in the minds of the Democrats.

The TEA (literally Taxed Enough Already?) Party had the sponsorship of the Koch Brothers and other plutocrats who want a government deferential to his economic interests -- low taxes, low wages, harsh labor discipline, and no regulation. It found its suckers -- people who see the well-educated as exploiters trying to destroy the low-brow culture of ill-educated white people.   

Quote:There's something in Democrat world view that always leads to this
kind of hatred.  Remember that it was the Republicans who freed the
slaves, and it was the Democrats who bitterly opposed it.  After the
Democrats lost the Civil War, they formed the Ku Klux Klan (KKK), and
the Democrats spent the next century lynching, beating, torturing and
raping any black person they could.  If you had been a Democrat a
century ago, you probably would have been a member of the KKK, and you
would have cheered every time a black was lynched or beaten.  Today,
Democrats have exactly the same mindset and hatred, but it's directed
at the 74 million Tea Partiers and Trump supporters.

In the Gilded Age the Republican Party represented the urban, industry-owning and banking bourgeoisie on the make in the North and the Freedmen. The Democratic Party was an odd coalition of  Southern agrarian lords and the Northern white (largely Irish then) industrial proletariat who got along with each other so long as they did not meet... So what could industrial workers have in common with  Southerners who had recently been divested of the most exploited workers possible? A shared distrust of Big Business -- exploiters on the job or distant monopolists who demanded tariffs to make the plantation owners overpay for industrial goods. The white urban proletariat saw any blacks as competitors to drive down wages... 

As for the Second (1915) Klan it was bipartisan in its way. It was Democratic, of course, in the South; it was Republican in the North and West. 

Quote:As I've developed Generational Dynamics, I've seen plenty of
historical analogies to this kind of hatred.  It's identical to the
Nazi hatred of the Jews, or the Hutu hatred of the Tutsis, or the Serb
hatred of the Bosnians.  This past summer, when the antifa-blm gangs
were rioting and looting and burning down small businesses, this was
the same as the Nazi's Kristallnacht.  As it says in Ecclesiastes,
there's nothing new under the sun.

Black Lives Matters and Antifa are nice guys in contrast to the Alt Right, the Proud Boys, the Boogaloo Boys, and the Wolverine Watchmen. . 

Quote:So if you ask what Trump is trying to do -- yes, he'll try overturn
the election if he can.  But there's a lot more.  By continuing to
gather evidence of massive fraud by the Democrats, he'll galvanize his
new movement, based on the 74 million Trump supporters.  He'll
probably say that he's running for president in 2024, and on that
basis he'll continue to hold rallies, from which he will continue to
attack the Biden administration.

Donald Trump is the definitive egoist, a person who measures all things by how they serve his interests. Most people grow out of that while kids. If they don't by then, then there is usually some ego-smashing experience such as having to work at a job that calls attention to a subordination to bosses, shareholders, and customers. The opposite of egoism that Trump exudes to the extreme is humility, something that nobody does for the fun of it. Except that people admire him for getting away with what they wish they could do... heck, marauders like Dillinger and the Barrow-Parker gang had their perverse admirers... I can't understand the appeal. There are other rich people far more admirable than Donald Trump.

81 million votes for Biden and 74 million for Trump translate into the 306 electoral votes that count and  the 232 that are irrelevant in deciding who will be President as of Inauguration Day.

Quote:How will all this end?  I've also been writing about this for over 15
years.  It will end in an existential threat to the United States that
will unify the country behind whoever is president.  That existential
threat is most likely going to be war with China.

COVID-19 is killing at the scale of a bungled war. Our Coward-in-Chief appeases a relentless enemy.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-06-2020, 07:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I read it, the ‘massive evidence’ of voter fraud is being presented to the red media, but not in court.  This is because a lawyer deliberately lying to a judge can easily end up disbarred.  As I heard it, this is why Trump is one win and eighty losses in the courts trying to overturn the election.

And counting...

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Dec-20 World View -- Morocco normalizes ties with Israel in exchange for Western Sahara

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Morocco normalizes ties with Israel in exchange for Western Sahara
  
• Agreement mediated by Donald Trump changes the status of Western Sahara
  
• Israel's 'pragmatic' foreign policy
  

****
**** Morocco normalizes ties with Israel in exchange for Western Sahara
****


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump and Morocco's King Mohammed VI (AFP)

Morocco and Israel on Thursday agreed to normalize relations, in an
agreement mediated by president Donald Trump, and described as
"historic." This is the fourth such agreement since September, after
agreements between Israel and United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and
Sudan were also signed. The first Arab countries to recognize Israel
were Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.

As part of this deal, the United States changed longstanding US policy
and recognized Morocco’s claims over the disputed Western Sahara
region.

Morocco has had a large Jewish population for centuries. Before
Israel's establishment in 1948, Morocco was home to a large Jewish
population, many of whose ancestors migrated to North Africa from
Spain and Portugal during the Spanish Inquisition. Today, hundreds of
thousands of Israeli Jews trace their lineage to Morocco, making it
one of the country's largest sectors of Israeli society, and a small
community of Jews, estimated at several thousand people, continues to
live in Morocco.

Trump announced the agreement in a series of tweets in which he
thanked Morocco for being one of the first nations to recognize the
United States shortly after it declared independence from Britain:

<QUOTE>"Today, I signed a proclamation recognizing Moroccan
sovereignty over the Western Sahara. Morocco’s serious, credible,
and realistic autonomy proposal is the ONLY basis for a just and
lasting solution for enduring peace and prosperity!

Another HISTORIC breakthrough today! Our two GREAT friends Israel
and the Kingdom of Morocco have agreed to full diplomatic
relations – a massive breakthrough for peace in the Middle East!

Morocco recognized the United States in 1777. It is thus fitting
we recognize their sovereignty over the Western
Sahara."<END QUOTE>

As in the case of the previous agreements, the Palestinian authorities
are infuriated. In Gaza, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said: “This is
a sin and it doesn’t serve the Palestinian people. The Israeli
occupation uses every new normalization to increase its aggression
against the Palestinian people and increase its settlement expansion.”

The Trump administration is pressuring Saudi Arabia to join with the
other countries in normalizing relations with Israel. The Saudis have
given tacit approval to the normalization process, but Saudi Foreign
Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said last week Riyadh would
only consider such a move if a peace deal "delivers a Palestinian
state with dignity and with a workable sovereignty that Palestinians
can accept."

****
**** Agreement mediated by Donald Trump changes the status of Western Sahara
****


Map of Western Sahara (Britannica)

The agreement is receiving criticism from the United Nations,
because the UN does not recognize Morocco's sovereignty over
the Western Sahara.

The region, Spanish Sahara, was a Spanish protectorate until Morocco
achieved independence in 1956, and then claimed sovereignty over
Western Sahara in 1957, although Spanish troops repelled the Moroccan
military from the territory.

In the 1970s, a guerrilla insurgency of nomadic ethnic Sahrawis sprang
up, calling itself the Polisario Front, and calling for the formation
of a new nation, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). This
led to clashes between the Moroccans and the Polisario Front, until a
ceasefire was agreed in 1991.

The ceasefire broke down last month. The Polisario Front
has declared a "state of war," and the UN has received reports
of several "shooting incidents" made by either side.

The Polisario Front is supported by Algeria and South Africa. The
intervention by the Trump administration is an important symbolic
change in the situation, and will energize the Moroccans. The U.S. is
now the only Western country to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over
Western Sahara, providing a diplomatic breakthrough for which the
kingdom has lobbied for decades.

****
**** Israel's 'pragmatic' foreign policy
****

As I reported in February of this year, 15 years ago made a startling
policy change and adopted a new "pragmatic" foreign policy. (See
"6-Feb-20 World View -- Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy"
)

In the new "pragmatic" foreign policy, adopted around 2004, Israel no
longer considers itself to be a Mideast country, so much as a European
country. It no longer pretends to try to integrate itself into the
Mideast. Instead, under Israel's pragmatic policy, the Arabs and
Israelis continue to hate each other, but Israel would use money and
trade incentives to "buy" peace with its Arab neighbors. The
Trump-mediated peace agreements with UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco
appear to be the implementation of this pragmatic strategy.

Al-Jazeera's political analyst Marwan Bishara, who hates Israel but
who hates the Palestinian Authority even more for negotiating peace
with Israel, said that the new announcement was another example of
"America as a diplomatic mercenary on behalf of Israel. ... Let’s call
it what it is – the imperial proclamation. At the end of the day,
Washington is using its influence around the world on behalf of
Israel, or rather Israel is outsourcing American power for its own
benefit in the greater Middle East."

Bishara puts his hatred of Israel on full display, but his political
interpretation is more or less consistent with Israel's pragmatic
foreign policy.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other.

Sources:

• Morocco, Israel agree to normalize relations (Sara Carter Show, 10-Dec-2020)
  
• Trump announces Israel and Morocco will normalize relations (CNBC, 10-Dec-2020)
  
• Israel and Morocco agree to normalise ties in latest US-brokered deal (France24, 10-Dec-2020)
  
• Israel, Morocco agree to normalise relations in US-brokered deal (Al-Jazeera, 10-Dec-2020)
  
• Morocco agrees to normalize ties with Israel (Jewish News Syndicate, 10-Dec-2020)
  
• Morocco Will Normalize Relations With Israel, Trump Administration Announces (Daily Caller, 10-Dec-2020)
  
• Morocco Agrees to Normalize Ties With Israel in Exchange for U.S. Recognition of Western Sahara Sovereignty (Haaretz, 10-Dec-2020)
  
• Western Sahara region, Africa (Britannica)
  
• Western Sahara: Who are the Polisario Front and what do they want? (Euronews, 17-Nov-2020)
  
• Ceasefire Ends in Occupied Western Sahara After U.S.-Backed Moroccan Military Launches Operation (Democracy Now, 16-Nov-2020)

Related Articles:

• New 'historic' Israel-Bahrain peace agreement generates controversy (12-Sep-2020)
  
  
• Israeli diplomat reveals Israel's startling new 'pragmatic' foreign policy (06-Feb-2020)
  
  
• Trump announces fantasy 'Peace to Prosperity' Mideast peace plan (29-Jan-2020)
  
  
• Obama and Netanyahu in sharp disagreement after speech (20-May-2011)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  
  
• Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Obama administration ends effort to pressure Israel on settlements (08-Dec-2010)
  
  
• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (1-May-2003)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Morocco, Western Sahara, Israel,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Egypt, Jordan,
Gaza, Hazem Qassem, Saudi Arabia, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud,
Spain, Spanish Sahara, Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, SADR,
Polisario Front, Algeria, South Africa, Marwan Bishara

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[Bob Butler 54]

(12-08-2020, 09:59 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(12-06-2020, 07:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I read it, the ‘massive evidence’ of voter fraud is being presented to the red media, but not in court.  This is because a lawyer deliberately lying to a judge can easily end up disbarred.  As I heard it, this is why Trump is one win and eighty losses in the courts trying to overturn the election.

And counting...

Stopped?  After the latest Supreme Court judgement there is nothing significant left?  The safe harbor is enabled?  All states have certified election results?

Still, the scam is profitable, so I expect he will continue it somehow.  The ideologues from Earth 2 will still be believers.

[pbrower2a]

The Presidential election is over. The Supreme Court unanimously refused to hear the Texas case. It's safe harbor time.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-13-2020, 03:26 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: The Presidential election is over. The Supreme Court unanimously refused to hear the Texas case. It's safe harbor time.

I know that. You know that. The inhabitants of Earth 2 are still sending money to their favorite elite.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Dec-2020 World View: Wisdom, Madness and Folly

Guest Wrote:> John, I understand Generational Dynamics and have read The Fourth
> Turning.

> I have made several important life decisions based off your work
> and even so I am surprised to see things falling apart even when I
> understand why they should.

> Maybe this is knowledge that we were not meant to learn as a
> species or are unable to do anything with except be spectators.

> I don't know which is worse.

I'm curious to know what life decisions you've made on the basis of my
work.

As I'm sure you're aware, you're asking some very deep philosophical
life and death questions that have different answers for everyone.

The problem is that knowing what's coming is not a blessing. It's a
curse. I know that it's been a curse to my life, and undoubtedly to
many others. As King Solomon said in Ecclesiastes, the more you know
the more miserable you'll be. I agree.

1:12 I the Preacher was king over Israel in Jerusalem.

1:13 And I gave my heart to seek and search out by wisdom concerning
all things that are done under heaven: this sore travail hath God
given to the sons of man to be exercised therewith.

1:14 I have seen all the works that are done under the sun; and,
behold, all is vanity and vexation of spirit.

1:15 That which is crooked cannot be made straight: and that which is
wanting cannot be numbered.

1:16 I communed with mine own heart, saying, Lo, I am come to great
estate, and have gotten more wisdom than all they that have been
before me in Jerusalem: yea, my heart had great experience of wisdom
and knowledge.

1:17 And I gave my heart to know wisdom, and to know madness and
folly: I perceived that this also is vexation of spirit.

1:18 For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth
knowledge increaseth sorrow.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 12-Dec-2020 World View: The Nation of Aztlán

Burner Prime" Wrote:> One of the things John never talks about but should when analyzing
> the SouthWest US, is that Mexicans deep in their soul still
> believe belongs to Mexico. Go to the Alamo and look at the
> monuments and you will see massive volumes of spit on them from
> Mexicans passing by. In the mind of Mexicans, Texas, Arizona, New
> Mexico and Southern California belong to Mexico, full stop. It is
> their historical birthright for thousands of years; we stole it
> from them a mere 150 years ago, and eventually they will get it
> back. That's the essence of the Aztlan plan.

> John never factors the Aztlan plan into any predictions about
> where we're headed, though nothing in North America and the
> Southern border is more important from a Generational
> perspective. He talks about Israel refighting the 1948 partition
> but never talks about the US refighting the Mexican American
> war. Instead he assumes that once Mexicans cross the Rio Grande,
> all of a sudden they love apple pie and baseball and will rally
> behind Kamala Harris when WWIII breaks out. Though it's possible
> since they might calculate they'll get moar-free-stuff from the US
> than from a new Mexican administration.

Awwwww, I'm sorry you feel left out because Latinos aren't getting the
same amount of attention as the Palestinians.

The problem is that I have written about all these things -- back in
2005-2006, when hundreds of thousands of Latinos were marching in Los
Angeles carrying Mexican flags and singing a bizarre Spanish version
of the Star Spangled Banner:

** Violence increases throughout Mexico as illegals pour across U.S. border
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e050825


** Mass Latino demonstrations protest proposed immigration bill
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e060328


** Immigration: Xenophobia and paranoia growing rapidly as 'Great American Boycott&' approaches
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e060430


Separately, in those days, I was having online conversations with
people about Aztecs, Mayans, and Commancheros.

But that was 15 years ago. Today, it's all fizzled. Whereas
Palestinian protests in Gaza or the West Bank are still a regular
occurrence, there's no news coming out of Los Angeles any more except
for the homeless lining the streets and, more recently, the endless
lockdowns.

And if you do an internet search for Aztlán, you get nothing recent.
Even the aztlan.net web site, which I used to reference, is now all
but defunct, except for a map:

• Map of Aztlán

Furthermore, the Aztlán secession wouldn't make sense today. Today,
caravans of Latinos are trying to get into the United States to take
advantage of all the free benefits promised by Biden, including free
welfare and free medical care for illegal immigrants. Nobody wants a
nation of Aztlán to secede, since Biden wouldn't be president in
Aztlán, and so the people wouldn't get free benefits. Actually, that
was also true in 2005-6.

So the solution to your dilemma is simple: Just get a few thousand
Mexicans to march through Los Angeles again, and you'll get a lot more
attention again.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-13-2020, 12:11 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The problem is that knowing what's coming is not a blessing.  It's a curse.  I know that it's been a curse to my life, and undoubtedly to many others.  As King Solomon said in Ecclesiastes, the more you know the more miserable you'll be.  I agree.

1:12 I the Preacher was king over Israel in Jerusalem.

1:13 And I gave my heart to seek and search out by wisdom concerning all things that are done under heaven: this sore travail hath God given to the sons of man to be exercised therewith.

1:14 I have seen all the works that are done under the sun; and, behold, all is vanity and vexation of spirit.

1:15 That which is crooked cannot be made straight: and that which is wanting cannot be numbered.

1:16 I communed with mine own heart, saying, Lo, I am come to great estate, and have gotten more wisdom than all they that have been before me in Jerusalem: yea, my heart had great experience of wisdom and knowledge.

1:17 And I gave my heart to know wisdom, and to know madness and folly: I perceived that this also is vexation of spirit.

1:18 For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow.

I’d agree that the Agricultural Age was a mess.  Solomon had it right in his view of the time.  Tribal thinking was common.  Those who had much tried to use violence to get more.  It was cost effective, at least for the winners.  Groups of people hated one another, commonly fell victim to xenophobia.  If your view of life is that tribal thinking is inevitable and forever, as it once was, you get depressed.  I see Solomen as a WEIRD guy, a reader, way ahead of his time.  Surrounded by tribal thinkers, no wonder he got depressed. 

You don’t have to have a worldview so depressing.  Well, maybe you do.  People don’t change their view of the world unless it fails them totally.  It is easier to disregard reality than to change your perspective.  Pointing out the your own descriptions of how your world view has failed you doesn’t do any good.  You cling to your perspective all the harder.

I just have to say the roundhead / enlightenment / WEIRD / blue perspective has not resulted in the same depression and failure.  Real wisdom doesn't come with the depression you describe.  It is just that you are stuck with Generational Dynamics, with tribal thinking.

(Aside:  I do remember a Doonsbury cartoon.  At the time, Duke was governor of a far Pacific culture.  He had to judge between two women, each claiming custody of a baby.  His number two suggested there was a president.  Duke agreed.  Just cut the baby in half.  The response of the two women?  "Sounds fair."  "Are you crazy?")

[pbrower2a]

(12-13-2020, 04:23 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(12-13-2020, 03:26 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: The Presidential election is over. The Supreme Court unanimously refused to hear the Texas case. It's safe harbor time.

I know that.  You know that.  The inhabitants of Earth 2 are still sending money to their favorite elite.

But does Mr. X know this and recognize it?

He is free to mourn, just as we were free to mourn the degradation of American democracy with the elevation of Donald Trump to the Presidency.

[pbrower2a]

(12-13-2020, 12:13 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 12-Dec-2020 World View: The Nation of Aztlán

Burner Prime Wrote:>   One of the things John never talks about but should when analyzing
>   the SouthWest US, is that Mexicans deep in their soul still
>   believe belongs to Mexico. Go to the Alamo and look at the
>   monuments and you will see massive volumes of spit on them from
>   Mexicans passing by. In the mind of Mexicans, Texas, Arizona, New
>   Mexico and Southern California belong to Mexico, full stop. It is
>   their historical birthright for thousands of years; we stole it
>   from them a mere 150 years ago, and eventually they will get it
>   back. That's the essence of the Aztlan plan.

>   John never factors the Aztlan plan into any predictions about
>   where we're headed, though nothing in North America and the
>   Southern border is more important from a Generational
>   perspective. He talks about Israel refighting the 1948 partition
>   but never talks about the US refighting the Mexican American
>   war. Instead he assumes that once Mexicans cross the Rio Grande,
>   all of a sudden they love apple pie and baseball and will rally
>   behind Kamala Harris when WWIII breaks out. Though it's possible
>   since they might calculate they'll get moar-free-stuff from the US
>   than from a new Mexican administration.

Awwwww, I'm sorry you feel left out because Latinos aren't getting the
same amount of attention as the Palestinians.

I do not consider Mexican-American citizens oppressed unless a higher rate of poverty is a form of oppression. Mexican-American citizens of the USA are fully able to preserve a culture that many non-Hispanics (I included) consider in no way exotic. There is much assimilation involving Mexican-Americans, but it goes both ways. Mexican-Americans have often shown the ability to assimilate people not of Mexican origin into their distinct and distinguished culture. 

For real oppression, go to southern Ohio, eastern Kentucky, or just about anywhere in West Virginia. Statistically I would rather be a Mexican-American in a stable family in much of "Aztlan" than grow up in some unstable, drug-addled white family.. well, anywhere. Can one be white and oppressed? Addiction to meth, fentanyl, oxycontin, or heroin is oppression.   

Quote:The problem is that I have written about all these things -- back in
2005-2006, when hundreds of thousands of Latinos were marching in Los
Angeles carrying Mexican flags and singing a bizarre Spanish version
of the Star Spangled Banner:

Paradoxically this is a time in which Mexican-Americans were making significant inroads upon the American middle class. I don't see this as a great difference between Italian-Americans taking pride in an Italian heritage that includes Dante Alighieri, Michelangelo Buonarroti, and Giuseppi Puccini or in German-Americans taking pride in Goethe and J S Bach.   

Quote:Separately, in those days, I was having online conversations with
people about Aztecs, Mayans, and Commancheros.

But that was 15 years ago.  Today, it's all fizzled.  Whereas
Palestinian protests in Gaza or the West Bank are still a regular
occurrence, there's no news coming out of Los Angeles any more except
for the homeless lining the streets and, more recently, the endless
lockdowns.

If Mexican-Americans have any problems in America, then such has nothing to do with being Mexican-American.  

Quote:And if you do an internet search for Aztlán, you get nothing recent.
Even the aztlan.net web site, which I used to reference, is now all
but defunct, except for a map:

• Map of Aztlán

Furthermore, the Aztlán secession wouldn't make sense today.  Today,
caravans of Latinos are trying to get into the United States to take
advantage of all the free benefits promised by Biden, including free
welfare and free medical care for illegal immigrants.  Nobody wants a
nation of Aztlán to secede, since Biden wouldn't be president in
Aztlán, and so the people wouldn't get free benefits.  Actually, that
was also true in 2005-6.

One of the ironies is that this area has far more people of Mexican origin than it had in 1845, 1848, or 1853 when Mexico seceded the area to the United States. Figure that some large cities that now have large Mexican-American populations were at most hick towns (San Antonio, El Paso, Albuquerque, Tucson, Phoenix, and all the mission-garrison towns of California) or did not even exist at the time of Mexican cession (Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, Lubbock, Las Vegas, San Bernardino, Bakersfield, Fresno, Modesto, Stockton, Sacramento, and Reno). Even Salt Lake City has a fast-growing Mexican-American community. Ironically, two cities almost fits into this category (Denver and New Orleans) except for one thing: neither was ever in Mexican territory [/quote] 

Quote: 
So the solution to your dilemma is simple: Just get a few thousand
Mexicans to march through Los Angeles again, and you'll get a lot more
attention again.

But count on many of those "Mexicans" having surnames or maiden names such as Sullivan, Schmidt, Kowalski, Rossi... assimilation goes both ways with Mexican-Americans. 

In one of the odd ironies of vexillology (flags), the flags of Chile and Texas are easy to confuse.

[pbrower2a]

(12-13-2020, 01:44 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(12-13-2020, 12:11 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: The problem is that knowing what's coming is not a blessing.  It's a curse.  I know that it's been a curse to my life, and undoubtedly to many others.  As King Solomon said in Ecclesiastes, the more you know the more miserable you'll be.  I agree.

1:12 I the Preacher was king over Israel in Jerusalem.

1:13 And I gave my heart to seek and search out by wisdom concerning all things that are done under heaven: this sore travail hath God given to the sons of man to be exercised therewith.

1:14 I have seen all the works that are done under the sun; and, behold, all is vanity and vexation of spirit.

1:15 That which is crooked cannot be made straight: and that which is wanting cannot be numbered.

1:16 I communed with mine own heart, saying, Lo, I am come to great estate, and have gotten more wisdom than all they that have been before me in Jerusalem: yea, my heart had great experience of wisdom and knowledge.

1:17 And I gave my heart to know wisdom, and to know madness and folly: I perceived that this also is vexation of spirit.

1:18 For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow.

I’d agree that the Agricultural Age was a mess.  Solomon had it right in his view of the time.  Tribal thinking was common.  Those who had much tried to use violence to get more.  It was cost effective, at least for the winners.  Groups of people hated one another, commonly fell victim to xenophobia.  If your view of life is that tribal thinking is inevitable and forever, as it once was, you get depressed.  I see Solomen as a WEIRD guy, a reader, way ahead of his time.  Surrounded by tribal thinkers, no wonder he got depressed. 

You don’t have to have a worldview so depressing.  Well, maybe you do.  People don’t change their view of the world unless it fails them totally.  It is easier to disregard reality than to change your perspective.  Pointing out the your own descriptions of how your world view has failed you doesn’t do any good.  You cling to your perspective all the harder.

I just have to say the roundhead / enlightenment / WEIRD / blue perspective has not resulted in the same depression and failure.  Real wisdom doesn't come with the depression you describe.  It is just that you are stuck with Generational Dynamics, with tribal thinking.

(Aside:  I do remember a Doonsbury cartoon.  At the time, Duke was governor of a far Pacific culture.  He had to judge between two women, each claiming custody of a baby.  His number two suggested there was a president.  Duke agreed.  Just cut the baby in half.  The response of the two women?  "Sounds fair."  "Are you crazy?")

I'll take depressing wisdom to foolishness that leads to ruin.  That may not be particularly WEIRD, although Solomon may have been WEIRD for his time. The Hebrew Bible, the Torah is in part a tale of how people went from being hunter-gatherers to (except for art) a sophisticated civilization by the standards of the time. The Jewish failure at art was the ban on "graven images" which could be used as idols. 

Wise people (not that I can quite put myself in their number, but I share the pain) find much vexation in seeing people deprecate rational science in favor of crankiness (anti-vaxxer nonsense) or superstition, or who see an idol with clay feet as something admirable. I would recognize any personality cult as an abomination before God if I am to take the Commandment "Thou shalt have no other gods before me" seriously. Even without being a particularly religious person, I see huge trouble with any personality cult, even if the weak one around Donald Trump, and that one is weak only because Donald Trump is not the competent despot that someone like Antichrist Hitler or Satan Hussein was. Someone like Abraham Lincoln, FDR, or Sir Winston Churchill was satisfied that he was doing the Lord's Work in the name of a People willing to do much the same. 

Fitting end to some idols:



Down goes the statue of a serial mass-murderer in Iraq.



Hungary, 1956.   



Off to the literal trash-heap. Liberated Germany, 1945.



The literal person (or his cadaver) as an object of desecration. Mussolini. He was already dead when the abuse began.

...just think of what I would like to see with some idols in Iran and North Korea.

*******

The story is told that two women claiming motherhood of a baby made their claim before King Solomon. He could not resolve the dispute directly, so he threatened to cut the baby in half and give one half to each. One woman said that that was better than nothing, and the other was aghast that what she considered her child would be killed, saying: 

I would rather surrender my baby to someone else than have it killed.     

The woman who said she would rather lose her baby to another woman than have it killed proved that she was the mother, as Solomon saw it.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Dec-20 World View -- China escalates hostility with Australia through threatened coal ban

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China escalates hostility with Australia through threatened coal ban
  
• New evidence of massive slavery of Uighurs in China
  
• China's delusional geopolitical strategy
  
• Cognitive dissonance
  

****
**** China escalates hostility with Australia through threatened coal ban
****


A rally in Hong Kong in December last year in support of Uighurs in Xinjiang province. In the back, one officer draws a pistol. (AFP)

China state media reports that China's top economic planner has
authorized power plants to import coal without clearance restrictions
from several countries "except for Australia." This implies that
China is formalizing its ban on imported Australian coal. Australian
coal been informally banned for months in the sense that dozens of
vessels carrying Australian coal have been stranded offshore, blocked
from entering China's ports.

China began an economic war on Australia in April, with economic
boycotts and blacklisting of imports from Australia, when Australia
called for an international investigation on the origins of the
coronavirus pandemic. China responsed by telling Australian
officials, "China is angry. If you make China the enemy, China will be
the enemy."

Australia has also criticized China over the arrest of millions
of Uighurs and imprisoning them in concentration camps. These
criticisms have also infuriated the Chinese Communists.

The ban on Australian coal imports has not yet been officially
confirmed by the Chinese Communists. However, the state media report
is another escalation in China's war of threats, extortion and bribery
against Australia.

****
**** New evidence of massive slavery of Uighurs in China
****

China's escalating economic war on Australia comes at a time of newly
discovered documents that provide a clear picture of how up to a
million Uighurs are being forced into slavery in manufacturing, in
garment making, and in picking of cotton.

It's been obvious for years that this has been going on, as I've
written in the past. Xi Jinping is an admirer of Adolf Hitler, who
created one of the largest forced labor systems in history: Over
twenty million foreign civilian workers, concentration camp prisoners
and prisoners of war from all of the occupied countries were required
to perform forced labor in Germany.

The picking of cotton is a particularly emotional issue because
American black slaves were forced to pick cotton for their white
masters, prior to the freeing of the slaves by Abraham Lincoln. Xi
Jinping is going in the opposite direction of Abraham Lincoln. Xi
Jinping is forcing more and more Uighurs to pick cotton for their
Chinese Communist masters. It's likely that Tibetans and other
minorities are being treated the same way. China supplies 20%
of the world's cotton.

****
**** China's delusional geopolitical strategy
****

A web site reader has forwarded to me an investment newsletter written
by an analyst close to the Chinese Communist Party that describes Xi
Jinping's geopolitical strategy over the next five years for gaining
hegemony over the entire world. It could have come from China's
Central Committee. It's a breathtaking plan, comparable to similar
plans by such historical luminaries as Adolf Hitler and Julius Caesar.

I'll be posting a full analysis at some point, but here's a summary:
Guided by China's leadership, countries throughout Africa, Asia and
the Mideast will put aside their disagreements. Old hatreds will be
mended by necessity, to attract capital for investments. These
include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan. China
will create a "global colossal," of dozens of countries in a massive
multi-country partnership, bound together by China's Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI).

The plan specifies concessions to be made by one nation after another
to "mend old hatreds," but it doesn't contain a single example of
China making any concession whatsoever.

According to the newsletter: "The big question is how America will
respond to the challenge of connecting so much of the world through
trade and peace. Their containment policy has failed so far. The
choice is either to join this more peaceful venture or to fight it.
If the latter choice is adopted it will result in a global war between
America and its remaining allies and the combined forces of China and
Russia."

This is a completely delusional fantasy, of course, but it feeds into
the Chinese Communist and Confucian view that they're the Master Race,
and the rest of us are barbarians, with no other purpose than to work
and make tribute to the Chinese, in the same way that donkeys work for
farmers.

****
**** Cognitive dissonance
****

As Leon Festinger has shown, the problem with a person having a
totally delusional fantasy is that when something goes wrong, the
person suffers cognitive dissonance and desperately doubles down on
the fantasy, trying to make it come true. In countries, this only
happens when the country is a dictatorship, where no one can challenge
the fantasy view without being jailed, tortured or executed. That
explains what happened in Mao Zedong's disastrous Great Leap Forward
in the late 1950s. In Xi Jinping's case, this could involve Chinese
military action that leads to a regional war, spreading to a world
war.

China's delusional geopolitical strategy has been fed a powerful
drug-like boost this year by the Chinese Communists' apparent success
with the Wuhan Coronavirus. Donald Trump is the first president in
decades to stand up to the Chinese, rather than appeasing them. At
the beginning of 2020, it appeared that Trump would coast to
re-election. But instead, China's intentional spread of Wuhan
Coronavirus to countries around the world, including the United
States, has resulted in the election of Joe Biden who, along with his
son Hunter Biden and other Democrats, have totally compromised
relationships with China. At the very least, China can expect to use
threats, bribery and extortion on the Bidens and the Democrats to
force the US to return to a policy of full-scale appeasement.

This apparent victory would be like a drug to the Xi Jinping, who is
convinced that their plan of global hegemony is working.

But an example of what can go wrong occurred in April when Australia
called for an international investigation of the source of the
pandemic. China responded by telling Australian officials, "China is
angry. If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy." Such an
investigation would derail the Chinese plan, and so they doubled down
on their strategy by declaring economic war on Australia.

The Chinese Communists will certainly consider this to be another
victory since, we assume, no other country would now dare to call for
an international investigation of the source of the pandemic. China's
policy of threats, bribery and extortion has won again.

John Xenakis is author of: "World View: War Between China and Japan:
Why America Must Be Prepared" (Generational Theory Book Series, Book
2), June 2019, Paperback: 331 pages, with over 200 source references,
$13.99 https://www.amazon.com/World-View-Betwee...732738637/

Sources:

• China's The Global Times appears to confirm a ban on Australian coal imports amid perilous trade tensions (Australian Broadcasting, 15-Dec-2020)
  
• Uighurs in China being forced into hard, manual labour including cotton picking: Report (WIONews, India, 15-Dec-2020)
  
• China's tainted cotton (BBC, 15-Dec-2020)
  
• Coercive Labor in Xinjiang: Labor Transfer and the Mobilization of Ethnic Minorities to Pick Cotton (Center For Global Policy, 14-Dec-2020)

Related articles:

• Australia-China relations become more toxic through boycotts and accusations (28-Nov-2020)
  
  
• Trove of leaked China documents detail jailing of Xinjiang's Muslim Uighurs (18-Nov-2019)
  
  
• Hitler's Force Labor System, 1939-1945 (31-Jul-2019)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus,
Uighurs, Xinjiang, Tibetans,
Ji Jinping, Adolf Hitler, Julius Caesar, Abraham Lincoln,
Leon Festinger, cognitive dissonance,
Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Hunter Biden

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John J. Xenakis
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[Bob Butler 54]

(12-13-2020, 09:41 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: But does Mr. X know this and recognize it?

He seems not to be defending his worldview lately except by crying 'troll'.  Does that belong in the same category as 'hoax' or 'fake news'?  Some people put a flaw in their worldview or values in a category that implies you need not respond or take the flaw seriously.  This results in people who see the validity of the flaw as putting the people who need such defenses as pathetic?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Dec-2020 World View: False dystopic predictions

No one would accuse me of being a Pollyanna, with predictions of a
global financial crisis and WW III, but there seem to be an increasing
number of dystopic predictions being made that have no basis in
reality or history.

Let's start with the incipient war between Latinos and blacks.

Several people in this forum have complained that unlike the
antifa-blm violence, violence between Latinos and blacks is being
ignored by the media.

I've been doing some research, and it's true that there is a great
deal of hatred from Latinos directed at blacks (and also at whites),
but there is no organized violence as in the case of antifa-blm
violence. The violence by Latinos is, as far as I can tell, sporadic
street violence by Latino street gangs (as in West Side Story).

That would explain why there's almost no media coverage of Latino
violence. The antifa-blm fascist violence was massive, in multiple
cities across the country, violently attacking people and burning down
minority businesses, including businesses owned by Latinos, which has
infuriated the Latino community. That news was censored by the
Democrats and the mainstream press, but it's important news and was
thoroughly covered by Fox News and non-Democrat controlled media.

However, the Latino violence does not rise to that level. Street
gangs have been around for decades, just like blacks murdering blacks
on the streets of Chicago, but none of that is considered important or
novel enough for coverage, even by Fox News.

Some people have been predicting a major civil war between Latinos and
blacks or between Latinos and whites. As I've previously indicated, I
was concerned about that myself during the Latino street marches in
2006, but those activities have fizzled.

So in response to these predictions: There is evidence of a great deal
of Latino hatred directed at blacks, and there is evidence of sporadic
Latino gang violence directed at blacks, but there is no evidence of
massive violence anywhere comparable to the massive antifa-blm fascist
violence of the last few months. That would explain why there has
been no systematic media coverage of Latino-black violence.

***
*** Other dystopic predictions
***

Here are some religion-based predictions that I've seen in the
Generational Dynamics forum, in the media, in e-mail, or in news
reports:

• Christianity: Imminent second coming of Jesus Christ as the
  Messiah.
  
  
• Buddhism: The Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth,
  and will achieve complete enlightenment.
  
  
• Shia Islam: The return of the 12th Imam as the messiah to avenge
  injustices to the Shia.
  
  
• Climate Change: End of humanity through drowning or burning or
  freezing or whatever.
  
  
• Attacks by aliens from flying saucers.

The above dystopic predictions are based on religious beliefs that
have no historical support at all.

Here are the two major Generational Dynamics predictions:

• World War III, most likely with China.
  
  
• Global financial crisis.

You do not have to "believe" in Generational Dynamics or any religion
to consider these predictions valid.

There were two world wars in the last century, plus massive additional
wars on several continents, and there have been massive wars in every
region in every century for millennia. So it's 100% certain that
there will be multiple crisis wars in this century.

If you don't believe that, then you must believe in your own religion
-- that the problem of war has been "solved." Maybe you'd be like the
believers in the historial fantasy in 1929 when the US led the world
in signing the Kellogg-Briand Pact, which outlawed war and made war
illegal. Frank Kellogg earned the Nobel Peace Prize in 1929 for his
work on the Peace Pact. Maybe Xi Jinping is looking forward to
getting his own Nobel Peace Prize.

It's like "La Belle Époque." There were two world wars in the last
century, plus massive wars on every continent, and there have been
massive wars on every continent in every century for millennia, but
everyone believes their own fantasies and nobody believes that war is
even possible until it starts. Then they ruefully wish that they had
taken even some simple steps to prepare.

https://www.thoughtco.com/the-belle-epoq...ge-1221300

So the prediction of multiple world wars and crisis wars does not
require any religious belief. It is based entirely on millennia of
history, and the "religious" belief would be that there would be no
world wars.

The prediction of a global financial crisis is, once again, based on
millennia of history. You don't have to believe in any religion to
recognize a series of international bubbles and financial crises that
occurred at regular intervals: the 1637 Tulipomania bubble, the South
Sea bubble of the 1710s-20s, the bankruptcy of the French monarchy in
the 1789, the Panic of 1857, and the 1929 Wall Street crash. We're now
overdue for the next one. If you don't like those examples, there are
plenty of other examples that you can research in every country in
every century throughout history.

Once again, for you to believe that there won't be a global financial
crisis then you'd have to have a "religious" belief that global
interlocking debt can increase indefinitely. There actually is a
religion that holds this belief. That religion is called Modern
Monetary Theory (MMT), which says that an infinite amount of money can
be printed and debt can be accumulated, and it will never have to be
paid back. This is a great religion, but it has no basis in reality,
or in history.

However, I would like to commend "tim", whose predictions have been
consistent with history and reality.

[Bob Butler 54]

(12-16-2020, 12:51 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: No one would accuse me of being a Pollyanna, with predictions of a global financial crisis and WW III, but there seem to be an increasing number of dystopic predictions being made that have no basis in reality or history...

I have a similar lack of concern for the religious dystopia predictions. Nor am I concerned about street gang violence escalating.

The major powers have seen enough of nukes, insurgent wars and proxy wars that the elites and leaders see better ways of acquiring wealth and power than violence. Still, there is enough hatred going around that it is much too popular to gain popularity by edging near the brink. There is some chance that somebody will miscalculate at some point. Still, there is a lack of major power crisis wars in the Information Age. I am dubious about the War of the Week predictions coming from Generational Dynamics. Another demonstration of how major power war is absurdly unprofitable may happen, but should it happen that will be enough for a time.

The monetary problems? Yah. Modern Monetary Theory or as they call it in the US Voodoo Economics seems very short term thinking. So far switching to a semi responsible party for a time as worked us out of trouble, but recovering from COVID might invite a disaster.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Dec-2020 World View: We're all going to die anyway

Cool Breeze" Wrote:> Regarding John's, it is an interesting post. I just wanted to say
> that I didn't predict anything (I actually believe a crisis of
> some sort financially is nearly guaranteed and with potential for
> war). But the larger point is, what do these predictions mean if
> we are dead in the long run, anyway? Or we just cycle to another
> bad run for our grandkids? Especially if these are supposed to be
> so dire, as many on here "predict."

> This is why in particular timing matter for predictions. Severity
> does too. Everyone "knows" financial issues will come and that
> wars will come. If you can't even name a time period, though, it
> does little. I think only a small minority of people believe
> foolishly that wars won't happen again or economic crashes won't,
> to some degree. Yes, those are religious thinkers. Shit, most
> religious thinkers these days are the lefty progressives with
> their climate change as eschatology and "progress" with
> scientism. Basically, the underpinnings of murderous ideologies
> repackaged as communism 2.0

You raise important questions that I've always had to deal with. All
I can do is tell how I've handled them.

"What do these predictions mean if we are dead in the long run?"

I've told many people just to ignore these predictions. Unless you're
psychopathically obsessed, like me, or unless you have specific plans,
like building an underground bunker to live in, then you might as well
just go on living your life and enjoying it, and just let people like
me worry about how it's going to end. If there's a war, then both of
us will probably die at the same time, but you'll have lived a happy,
optimistic life, and I'll have lived a sad, depressive life. We'll
both be just as dead, but you'll be better off, at least in the Karmic
sense, because you'll have been happier.

Another way of looking at it is that I can tell you that the camel's
back is going to break at some point, but I can't tell you which straw
will break the camel's back. But if you know that the camel's back
is going to break at some point, then you can take action, such
as getting another camel.

But I don't think it's right to say that just because we can't
predict a specific time for something that it might not occur for
centuries. As I said, there have been multiple massive wars in
the last century and in every century, so you can expect a world
war "soon," whatever that means, but certainly a lot sooner than
the next century.

What Generational Dynamics does is to at least provide a timeline
associated with dystopic predictions, via generational cycles (which
are fairly fixed). So we can look at the dates of the last few major
Western financial crises (1637, 1720, 1789, 1857, 1929), and you can
make probabilistic estimates of when the next crisis can occur. You
can start with generational trends to get an estimated date range, and
then you can can look at the list of previous crises and try to figure
out what they had in common that would predict another crisis, in
order to narrow the date range. That's what I've tried to do, without
attempting to set a specific date. So I can refer to exponential
growing interlocking global debt, or I can refer to the CCP's
increasing belligerence and delusional insanity, and I can quote the
saying, "If something can't go on forever, then it won't." And I can
talk about how "La Belle Époque" ended with WW I, or I can talk about
how the Roaring Twenties ended with the stock market crash, and that
can provide clues about when the crisis will occur, but no definite
time. As I said, I can tell you that the camel's back is going to
break at some point, and I can give you a probabilistic estimate of
when it will happen, but I can't tell you for sure which straw will
break the camel's back.