When did the current 4T begin?

[AspieMillennial]

(11-20-2019, 08:06 PM)Ghost Wrote: In the US, it's probably like this:

1T/2T cusp: 1960-1965 (invention of the birth control pill to the start of US involvement in Vietnam)
2T starting point: November 22, 1963 (JFK's assassination)
2T absolute: 1965-1978 (the start of US involvement in Vietnam to the banning of lead paint)
2T/3T cusp: 1978-1984 (the banning of lead paint to Reagan's 1984 landslide win)
3T starting point: November 4, 1980 (Reagan winning the Reagan vs. Carter election)
3T absolute: 1984-1999 (Reagan's 1984 landslide win to the Columbine shootings)
3T/4T cusp: 1999-2005 (the Columbine shootings to Hurricane Katrina)
4T starting point: September 11, 2001 (9/11)
4T absolute: 2005-present (since Hurricane Katrina)

Hurricane Katrina didn't have much of an impact on most of the US. Things went back to normal fast. The 2008 crash was far worse. There were also heavy 3T attitudes in 2005-2008.

[Ghost]

(11-20-2019, 08:09 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(11-20-2019, 08:06 PM)Ghost Wrote: In the US, it's probably like this:

1T/2T cusp: 1960-1965 (invention of the birth control pill to the start of US involvement in Vietnam)
2T starting point: November 22, 1963 (JFK's assassination)
2T absolute: 1965-1978 (the start of US involvement in Vietnam to the banning of lead paint)
2T/3T cusp: 1978-1984 (the banning of lead paint to Reagan's 1984 landslide win)
3T starting point: November 4, 1980 (Reagan winning the Reagan vs. Carter election)
3T absolute: 1984-1999 (Reagan's 1984 landslide win to the Columbine shootings)
3T/4T cusp: 1999-2005 (the Columbine shootings to Hurricane Katrina)
4T starting point: September 11, 2001 (9/11)
4T absolute: 2005-present (since Hurricane Katrina)

Hurricane Katrina didn't have much of an impact on most of the US. Things went back to normal fast. 2008 was far worse.

I remember one user here (forgot who) using Hurricane Katrina as a turning point. I could be wrong though.

[Teejay]

(11-20-2019, 08:06 PM)Ghost Wrote: In the US, it's probably like this:

1T/2T cusp: 1960-1965 (invention of the birth control pill to the start of US involvement in Vietnam)
2T starting point: November 22, 1963 (JFK's assassination)
2T absolute: 1965-1978 (the start of US involvement in Vietnam to the banning of lead paint)
2T/3T cusp: 1978-1984 (the banning of lead paint to Reagan's 1984 landslide win)
3T starting point: November 4, 1980 (Reagan winning the Reagan vs. Carter election)
3T absolute: 1984-1999 (Reagan's 1984 landslide win to the Columbine shootings)
3T/4T cusp: 1999-2005 (the Columbine shootings to Hurricane Katrina)
4T starting point: September 11, 2001 (9/11)
4T absolute: 2005-present (since Hurricane Katrina)

Those who argue for 2005 as the start of the Crisis for North America, cite the considerable decline in popularity in the Bush Administration in 2005 and 2006.

[Ghost]

(11-20-2019, 09:09 PM)Teejay Wrote:

(11-20-2019, 08:06 PM)Ghost Wrote: In the US, it's probably like this:

1T/2T cusp: 1960-1965 (invention of the birth control pill to the start of US involvement in Vietnam)
2T starting point: November 22, 1963 (JFK's assassination)
2T absolute: 1965-1978 (the start of US involvement in Vietnam to the banning of lead paint)
2T/3T cusp: 1978-1984 (the banning of lead paint to Reagan's 1984 landslide win)
3T starting point: November 4, 1980 (Reagan winning the Reagan vs. Carter election)
3T absolute: 1984-1999 (Reagan's 1984 landslide win to the Columbine shootings)
3T/4T cusp: 1999-2005 (the Columbine shootings to Hurricane Katrina)
4T starting point: September 11, 2001 (9/11)
4T absolute: 2005-present (since Hurricane Katrina)

Those who argue for 2005 as the start of the Crisis for North America, cite the considerable decline in popularity in the Bush Administration in 2005 and 2006.

Were you replying to that post or my "I remember one user here (forgot who) using Hurricane Katrina as a turning point. I could be wrong though" post?

[David Horn]

(11-20-2019, 09:19 PM)Ghost Wrote:

(11-20-2019, 09:09 PM)Teejay Wrote:

(11-20-2019, 08:06 PM)Ghost Wrote: In the US, it's probably like this:

1T/2T cusp: 1960-1965 (invention of the birth control pill to the start of US involvement in Vietnam)
2T starting point: November 22, 1963 (JFK's assassination)
2T absolute: 1965-1978 (the start of US involvement in Vietnam to the banning of lead paint)
2T/3T cusp: 1978-1984 (the banning of lead paint to Reagan's 1984 landslide win)
3T starting point: November 4, 1980 (Reagan winning the Reagan vs. Carter election)
3T absolute: 1984-1999 (Reagan's 1984 landslide win to the Columbine shootings)
3T/4T cusp: 1999-2005 (the Columbine shootings to Hurricane Katrina)
4T starting point: September 11, 2001 (9/11)
4T absolute: 2005-present (since Hurricane Katrina)

Those who argue for 2005 as the start of the Crisis for North America, cite the considerable decline in popularity in the Bush Administration in 2005 and 2006.

Were you replying to that post or my "I remember one user here (forgot who) using Hurricane Katrina as a turning point. I could be wrong though" post?

I was one of many on the old site who chose 2005 (at the time) due to the total incompetence shown by the Bush administration post-Katrina.  It's still arguable, but 2008 is a better fit.

[Hintergrund]

(11-20-2019, 09:09 PM)Teejay Wrote:

(11-20-2019, 08:06 PM)Ghost Wrote: In the US, it's probably like this:

1T/2T cusp: 1960-1965 (invention of the birth control pill to the start of US involvement in Vietnam)
2T starting point: November 22, 1963 (JFK's assassination)
2T absolute: 1965-1978 (the start of US involvement in Vietnam to the banning of lead paint)
2T/3T cusp: 1978-1984 (the banning of lead paint to Reagan's 1984 landslide win)
3T starting point: November 4, 1980 (Reagan winning the Reagan vs. Carter election)
3T absolute: 1984-1999 (Reagan's 1984 landslide win to the Columbine shootings)
3T/4T cusp: 1999-2005 (the Columbine shootings to Hurricane Katrina)
4T starting point: September 11, 2001 (9/11)
4T absolute: 2005-present (since Hurricane Katrina)

Those who argue for 2005 as the start of the Crisis for North America, cite the considerable decline in popularity in the Bush Administration in 2005 and 2006.

Many governments lost popularity quickly at some point, but not all of these times opened a new Turning. Was this so unprecedented?

[ResidentArtist]

I'm probably in the minority here, but based on my perception and personal experiences, I think the 4T began with 9/11 and deepened with the Great Recession. It's sort of like a reverse of the previous crisis, which started with economic depression and deepened with Pearl Harbor.

Just because not everyone was affected by it (as I've seen suggested elsewhere) doesn't mean the event wasn't a catalyst that changed the national mood. Remember that not everyone was personally affected by the Boston Tea Party in the Revolutionary Saeculum either. The Intolerable Acts which resulted from it were targeted at Massachusetts, yet Strauss and Howe cited it as the beginning of that crisis. It produced enough national fervor that independence started to be considered as a serious possibility.

That the mid-2000s seemed to have returned to 3T normalcy is also not necessarily evidence of a start date of 2008. It isn't uncommon for crisis eras to cool down in between before things get bad again. This is evident by how just four years after a triumphant victory at Yorktown, a Constitutional Convention was needed to prevent the new nation from falling apart financially and politically. Even in the Great Power Saeculum, there is a period of time during FDR's presidency where unemployment drops from nearly 25% in 1933 to a figure of 14.3% four years later, before the recession of 1938 and World War II's start revived troubles.

Thirdly, many later events aren't as separate as one might think. The economy was already being strained by the trillions being spent on two wars being waged in the Middle East and likely worsened the Great Recession. What's more is that 9/11 and the instability it caused led the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates from 3.5% to less than 2% by the end of 2001 to boost consumer confidence, fueling economic bubbles along with them. When they increased again in 2005, so did mortgage prices. 9/11 therefore ramped up the Recession and snowballed into the numerous other effects of that meltdown.

While that day is not clear to me, I do remember certain elements of the aftermath. My childhood school used to play Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA" every morning, although I didn't see the context of it until later on. It just seemed like something we always did as Americans, so we took direction first and asked questions later, much like how Fourth Turnings go down. It ultimately goes without saying that 9/11 fundamentally changed the national aura into one driven by a sense of urgency. Isn't that what the start of the 4T does?

[Warren Dew]

I no longer think there's a clear demarcation between the third and fourth turnings, the way there is between the end of the fourth turning and the beginning of the following saeculum. Rather, there's an approximate date, and an event is picked in retrospect. If the crisis war ends up being, say, a nuclear war between the middle east and the US, then we'll pick 9/11 as the precursor of that war. If the war ends up being between the US and Europe, we'll pick something else.

[Eric the Green]

(11-27-2019, 10:47 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I no longer think there's a clear demarcation between the third and fourth turnings, the way there is between the end of the fourth turning and the beginning of the following saeculum.  Rather, there's an approximate date, and an event is picked in retrospect.  If the crisis war ends up being, say, a nuclear war between the middle east and the US, then we'll pick 9/11 as the precursor of that war.  If the war ends up being between the US and Europe, we'll pick something else.

Several times I think, 4Ts have begun with economic stress of some kind, though this may not always have been the boundary defined by Strauss and Howe. I do not see the catalyst that begins a 4T as necessarily the main or only precursor to a 4T war. Of course, no-one could have chosen any other event except the stock market crash as the start of the previous 4T, whether WWII had happened or not. The Great Recession is a natural re-occurrance under similar conditions.

The 4T crisis turning usually is more than a war, though a war is usually the 4T climax. So far the US or Britain has gone into a major war in every 4T discussed by the authors. You forgot that one of those was the civil war, I guess, because that's the most likely kind of war in our future, although we may also face war in the middle east (probably in Syria) at the same time. I see circa 2025 as the time. It will probably be intervention in a war already begun several years before, as I see it. In any case, I don't think 9-11 will be seen as the start of the 4T, though it will be seen as one of several precursors to the war in the middle east involving the USA. And there will not be a nuclear war. The upcoming wars will be smaller than 4T wars in the past.

The upcoming possible war in the middle east may well involve Russia and thus become linked with their belligerent and invasive behavior in Eastern Europe. If this gets linked up with Brexit and the increasing racist influence in Eastern Europe and the EU, it could be a concern for a new USA president. These concerns will be seen as direct results of the 2008 crash and the resulting civil wars and revolutions in the Middle East and Ukraine, because of the refugee crisis and Russia's belligerence.

[Eric the Green]

(11-27-2019, 09:58 PM)ResidentArtist Wrote: I'm probably in the minority here, but based on my perception and personal experiences, I think the 4T began with 9/11 and deepened with the Great Recession. It's sort of like a reverse of the previous crisis, which started with economic depression and deepened with Pearl Harbor.

Just because not everyone was affected by it (as I've seen suggested elsewhere) doesn't mean the event wasn't a catalyst that changed the national mood. Remember that not everyone was personally affected by the Boston Tea Party in the Revolutionary Saeculum either. The Intolerable Acts which resulted from it were targeted at Massachusetts, yet Strauss and Howe cited it as the beginning of that crisis. It produced enough national fervor that independence started to be considered as a serious possibility.

That the mid-2000s seemed to have returned to 3T normalcy is also not necessarily evidence of a start date of 2008. It isn't uncommon for crisis eras to cool down in between before things get bad again. This is evident by how just four years after a triumphant victory at Yorktown, a Constitutional Convention was needed to prevent the new nation from falling apart financially and politically. Even in the Great Power Saeculum, there is a period of time during FDR's presidency where unemployment drops from nearly 25% in 1933 to a figure of 14.3% four years later, before the recession of 1938 and World War II's start revived troubles.

Thirdly, many later events aren't as separate as one might think. The economy was already being strained by the trillions being spent on two wars being waged in the Middle East and likely worsened the Great Recession. What's more is that 9/11 and the instability it caused led the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates from 3.5% to less than 2% by the end of 2001 to boost consumer confidence, fueling economic bubbles along with them. When they increased again in 2005, so did mortgage prices. 9/11 therefore ramped up the Recession and snowballed into the numerous other effects of that meltdown.

While that day is not clear to me, I do remember certain elements of the aftermath. My childhood school used to play Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA" every morning, although I didn't see the context of it until later on. It just seemed like something we always did as Americans, so we took direction first and asked questions later, much like how Fourth Turnings go down. It ultimately goes without saying that 9/11 fundamentally changed the national aura into one driven by a sense of urgency. Isn't that what the start of the 4T does?

Thanks for your views.

I think many T4T observers say the Great Recession was the beginning of the 4T because it fomented a national mood in which the people knew that the nation was falling off a financial and economic cliff. On the other hand, 9-11 did not lead to such a mood of national emergency. It did lead to a war, and it was also the poor excuse for a second war. But the wars were not fought in a spirit of national dedication to the cause, and no sacrifice was expected except of the soldiers who went. The war on terror continues, but it is simmering rather than commanding the national attention. The second war was very controversial and the people were divided over it. There are smaller scale US wars like these in almost every turning.

The conditions that make this 4T what it is are not any kind of shared spirit of national emergency and patriotism such as you felt was a part of your life after 9-11. What makes this a 4T is the cold civil war that divides the nation. The controversy over the US invasion of Iraq was part of that division, although it goes back to the 2T. Now the two halves of our nation cannot communicate with each other. This is a crisis because national and world problems are getting worse, including the existential world threat of climate change, and the USA government cannot act. The 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession imposed poverty on about half the country, and elevated the tensions. Nothing has been done about this except an early stimulus package. Politicians have arisen advocating revolution, and another politician stoked the national divide to get elected president of the USA by scapegoating outgroups. This is a return of the racism before the Second World War. What's worse, this president violates the rule of law and the constitution, but half the country supports him anyway. Just having such a president is in itself a great crisis for our country. Democracy is on the line, and half of Americans are ready to put this celebrity demagogue in power for life, no matter what he does.

Remember also that the Great Recession was felt in Europe and the Middle East very strongly and also elsewhere. The result was the Arab Spring uprising in 2011, which was imitated all over the world. This set off civil wars, especially in Syria, which resulted in a huge refugee crisis that inflamed nationalist and racist tendencies in Europe and the USA. The UK has been embroiled in the Brexit controversy because of this refugee crisis. If Britain leaves the UK it will weaken it and leave it subject to greater influence by oppressive racist and nationalist regimes that have taken over Eastern Europe, just as Russia has become belligerent and is now employing every tactic to weaken the West. Just what further crisis all this may lead to is still unclear.

[Hintergrund]

The answer to 9/11 was very 3T though: Overwhelming bureaucracy, re: Homeland.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Yes, I have to agree with Eric that for the USA this Cold Civil War (or Internal Cold War) is the central feature of this 4T. We are in a Fracturing Crisis this time around.

On the other hand, this divide seems relatively mild compared to the previous Fracturing Crisis, and a resolution might be found in decentralization.

The United Kingdom also seems to be in a Fracturing 4T.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Thinking about terminology......

For a Fracturing 4T there be several different possibilities:

1. A relatively mild version may play out as an Internal Cold War, and might be resolved with ballots instead of bullets.

2. The more severe versions may have a hot war in the form of a Civil War. These civil wars may be subdivided into a couple different themes:

A. Determining who rules. (The War of the Roses).

B. War of secession. (In America, the War Between the States).

[Tim Randal Walker]

I have to wonder if a Fracturing Crisis leads to, at best, a weak 1T.

Conceivably, Americas current 4T might may have a anticlimactic rather than empowering resolution. In which case, the Millies might end up in a Hard Artist role instead of the Hero role. Millie endowments might resemble the Progressives' more than those of the G.I. or Republican generations.

Actually, it has been quite a long time since the Progressives' particular flavor of endowments.

By the time the New Civic generation appears it may have been quite a long time since the grand Civic endowments of a fully empowered Civic generation.

[Tim Randal Walker]

This time around for the United States, the best case scenario......

The Internal Cold War is resolved by ballot, leading to considerable decentralization. The Millies are not empowered, and take on a Hard Artist role during a weak 1T.

[AspieMillennial]

(11-29-2019, 06:38 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: This time around for the United States, the best case scenario......

The Internal Cold War is resolved by ballot, leading to considerable decentralization. The Millies are not empowered, and take on a Hard Artist role during a weak 1T.

What are Hard Artists like compared to Civics?

[ResidentArtist]

(11-28-2019, 04:37 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-27-2019, 09:58 PM)ResidentArtist Wrote: I'm probably in the minority here, but based on my perception and personal experiences, I think the 4T began with 9/11 and deepened with the Great Recession. It's sort of like a reverse of the previous crisis, which started with economic depression and deepened with Pearl Harbor.

Just because not everyone was affected by it (as I've seen suggested elsewhere) doesn't mean the event wasn't a catalyst that changed the national mood. Remember that not everyone was personally affected by the Boston Tea Party in the Revolutionary Saeculum either. The Intolerable Acts which resulted from it were targeted at Massachusetts, yet Strauss and Howe cited it as the beginning of that crisis. It produced enough national fervor that independence started to be considered as a serious possibility.

That the mid-2000s seemed to have returned to 3T normalcy is also not necessarily evidence of a start date of 2008. It isn't uncommon for crisis eras to cool down in between before things get bad again. This is evident by how just four years after a triumphant victory at Yorktown, a Constitutional Convention was needed to prevent the new nation from falling apart financially and politically. Even in the Great Power Saeculum, there is a period of time during FDR's presidency where unemployment drops from nearly 25% in 1933 to a figure of 14.3% four years later, before the recession of 1938 and World War II's start revived troubles.

Thirdly, many later events aren't as separate as one might think. The economy was already being strained by the trillions being spent on two wars being waged in the Middle East and likely worsened the Great Recession. What's more is that 9/11 and the instability it caused led the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates from 3.5% to less than 2% by the end of 2001 to boost consumer confidence, fueling economic bubbles along with them. When they increased again in 2005, so did mortgage prices. 9/11 therefore ramped up the Recession and snowballed into the numerous other effects of that meltdown.

While that day is not clear to me, I do remember certain elements of the aftermath. My childhood school used to play Lee Greenwood's "God Bless the USA" every morning, although I didn't see the context of it until later on. It just seemed like something we always did as Americans, so we took direction first and asked questions later, much like how Fourth Turnings go down. It ultimately goes without saying that 9/11 fundamentally changed the national aura into one driven by a sense of urgency. Isn't that what the start of the 4T does?

Thanks for your views.

I think many T4T observers say the Great Recession was the beginning of the 4T because it fomented a national mood in which the people knew that the nation was falling off a financial and economic cliff. On the other hand, 9-11 did not lead to such a mood of national emergency. It did lead to a war, and it was also the poor excuse for a second war. But the wars were not fought in a spirit of national dedication to the cause, and no sacrifice was expected except of the soldiers who went. The war on terror continues, but it is simmering rather than commanding the national attention. The second war was very controversial and the people were divided over it. There are smaller scale US wars like these in almost every turning.

The conditions that make this 4T what it is are not any kind of shared spirit of national emergency and patriotism such as you felt was a part of your life after 9-11. What makes this a 4T is the cold civil war that divides the nation. The controversy over the US invasion of Iraq was part of that division, although it goes back to the 2T. Now the two halves of our nation cannot communicate with each other. This is a crisis because national and world problems are getting worse, including the existential world threat of climate change, and the USA government cannot act. The 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession imposed poverty on about half the country, and elevated the tensions. Nothing has been done about this except an early stimulus package. Politicians have arisen advocating revolution, and another politician stoked the national divide to get elected president of the USA by scapegoating outgroups. This is a return of the racism before the Second World War. What's worse, this president violates the rule of law and the constitution, but half the country supports him anyway. Just having such a president is in itself a great crisis for our country. Democracy is on the line, and half of Americans are ready to put this celebrity demagogue in power for life, no matter what he does.

Remember also that the Great Recession was felt in Europe and the Middle East very strongly and also elsewhere. The result was the Arab Spring uprising in 2011, which was imitated all over the world. This set off civil wars, especially in Syria, which resulted in a huge refugee crisis that inflamed nationalist and racist tendencies in Europe and the USA. The UK has been embroiled in the Brexit controversy because of this refugee crisis. If Britain leaves the UK it will weaken it and leave it subject to greater influence by oppressive racist and nationalist regimes that have taken over Eastern Europe, just as Russia has become belligerent and is now employing every tactic to weaken the West. Just what further crisis all this may lead to is still unclear.

Thanks for the reply. I do agree the Great Recession had more of a worldwide impact, only the crisis deepened with that. When I picture a 3T war it's something along the lines of the Mexican-American or Persian Gulf Wars, both resolved relatively quick and improved national morale but ultimately did nothing to prevent a crisis in the future. That we're still fighting related wars in the Middle East almost 20 years later, as well as its status as a "where were you when" moment like Pearl Harbor, shows it's not just a 3T event in my opinion. The backlash to Muslim refugees and immigration that you mentioned was also partially caused by events like 9/11, which gave those against it the added fear of future terrorist attacks.

That being said, I wouldn't put the war on terror as central to the overall era either like the economic downturn or climate change are. It's not capable of causing the same regeneracy as the other two (I can see both combining for green economic stimulus on a large scale) outside of killing bin Laden and al-Baghdadi and calling it a win, while striking some kind of deal with the Taliban.

[ResidentArtist]

(11-29-2019, 05:19 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: The answer to 9/11 was very 3T though: Overwhelming bureaucracy, re: Homeland.

Bureaucracies generally have less power during Unraveling eras outside of social issues, similar to the Reaganomics of the 1980s and 1990s, as well in the Roaring Twenties.

[ResidentArtist]

(11-29-2019, 06:38 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: This time around for the United States, the best case scenario......

The Internal Cold War is resolved by ballot, leading to considerable decentralization.  The Millies are not empowered, and take on a Hard Artist role during a weak 1T.

That's the most likely ending, akin to the Glorious Revolution in England, which means the next crisis may feature some kind of revolution. The next Prophet generation should also be a lot like the Awakened or Missionaries if the Millennials are less empowered than their Republican or G.I. counterparts. Based on the messaging from that generation's earliest politicians such as Pete Buttigieg or AOC, that might not be the case.

[pbrower2a]

(11-29-2019, 06:38 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: This time around for the United States, the best case scenario......

The Internal Cold War is resolved by ballot, leading to considerable decentralization.  The Millies are not empowered, and take on a Hard Artist role during a weak 1T.

Demographics will decide this once and for all. Even religion will need to embrace rationality as the more influential priests and pastors by default better resemble Fulton Sheen or Billy Graham. The hollow Tea Party (and that was Trumpism before Trump) will be discredited for its irrationality and its economic sadism.

Such is my hope.