When did the current 4T begin?

[Tim Randal Walker]

In response to AspieMillenial, the Hard Artist generation would lack the Hubris of a fully empowered Civic generation. If I recall correctly, there was a description of the Progressives and their endowments in Generations or The Fourth Turning.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I find it hard to project in any detail even as far as the next 2T.

Going by the rhythms of history (as I have posted before):

1. Next turning is 1T. I think that at best this will be a weak 1T. Millies may end up in a Hard Artist role, and if so their endowments may resemble the Progressives. At this point I doubt that Xers will resemble Gilded.

2. Next 2T. The double rhythm suggests that this will be Apolo type.

3. Next 3T.

4. Projected Crisis of 2100.

5. 1T in early 22nd century.

6. 22nd century 2T. Double rhythm suggests this will Dionysus type.

[Bill the Piper]

(12-12-2019, 12:22 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: 2.  Next 2T.  The double rhythm suggests that this will be Apolo type

I imagine something like the Missionary "social purity movements" attacking Millennial techno-hedonism. Later wave neo-Missionaries might also fight for more personal freedom against Millennial environmental emergency laws.

[David Horn]

(12-16-2019, 10:20 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(12-12-2019, 12:22 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: 2.  Next 2T.  The double rhythm suggests that this will be Apollo type

I imagine something like the Missionary "social purity movements" attacking Millennial techno-hedonism. Later wave neo-Missionaries might also fight for more personal freedom against Millennial environmental emergency laws.

I agree, in fact the precursors are already showing.  The emerging political movement seems to be more or less liberal on economics but trending conservative on culture.  This is increasingly true everywhere.  We're just starting the test drive now, but 60 years of continuous change toward more sexual and cultural freedom had to create a backlash at some point.  Mark the beginning as the free speech movement and the nascent civil rights activities that grew in the civil right s movement.

[Eric the Green]

(12-16-2019, 01:55 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(12-16-2019, 10:20 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(12-12-2019, 12:22 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: 2.  Next 2T.  The double rhythm suggests that this will be Apollo type

I imagine something like the Missionary "social purity movements" attacking Millennial techno-hedonism. Later wave neo-Missionaries might also fight for more personal freedom against Millennial environmental emergency laws.

I agree, in fact the precursors are already showing.  The emerging political movement seems to be more or less liberal on economics but trending conservative on culture.  This is increasingly true everywhere.  We're just starting the test drive now, but 60 years of continuous change toward more sexual and cultural freedom had to create a backlash at some point.  Mark the beginning as the free speech movement and the nascent civil rights activities that grew in the civil right s movement.

We're not past the major events of the 4T yet, so it's way too early to look for indications of a socially-pure cultural conservative prophet generation. During most of the recent 3T, cultural conservatism was already rising, so it's scarcely true that we've had "60 years of continuous change toward more sexual and cultural freedom." There has been much resistance and cultural conservatism has grown in red America even as it declined in Blue America. A 1T normally sees more cultural conservatism, and in this 4T we have already seen the signs of this, with the me too movement, helicopter parents, and other trends toward sexual repression, it being the case that liberation had not gone so far among some men that they still felt entitled to outdated male domination. So we've had lots of ups and downs along the way.

I have written in my book, released a couple of months ago, about this very point, and I mentioned the folks here who think the next awakening is going to be more puritannical like the days of temperance promoted by the Missionaries. It won't happen. The next 2T will be as full sexually-free as the last one, and will take up where the last one left off in all ways. Those of you young enough will live to see this prophecy fulfilled, so mark my words. 

The main difference from the sixties is that the late 2040s will be less wild, angry and crazy and more focused on making deep-rooted change in society, and this will be done on the community level to a great extent. Society will need to be thoroughly greened, and today's virtual tech-obsessed society will indeed be opposed by the new prophets. But environmental laws will be greatly strengthened, and new ways of living will be required-- quite the opposite of Bill's prediction in that regard. The environmental laws will be extended, the great society extended to the world, and a new belle epoche will be hedonistic and artistic. Nature will be admitted back into our lives, and our cities will be overgrown with organic architecture and lifestyles. The next 2T will fulfill the last one: the cycles make that abundantly clear.

One difference in the 2050s that may be more Apollonian, is that while in the 1970s the Awakening spirit was often hijacked by a regressive trend toward the moral majority fundamentalism and Jesus freaks, next time there will also be an intellectual revival of learning and writing as well as further expansion of networking coming out of the Awakening instead of new religious cults. But the same revival of occultism and psychism will occur, and the same trends toward escapism. Today's revival of scientism and physicalism, so abundant on this website, will be reversed again, as it must be.

Even beyond this current cycle, it has always been true that, for the most part, Awakenings take up from where the previous ones left off. There may be a double rhythm, but it can't be exaggerated to the point of calling any Awakening era culturally conservative in modern times. Non-traditional religious awakening in the sixties was an echo of the New Thought, Theosophy and Gnostic revivals of the previous awakening, which in turn continued the transcendentalist thinkers before them. The previous awakening of the 1890s-1900s featured liberating fashion and free love movements, drug cults and swirling organic arts and architecture influenced by those drugs, which was echoed in the late 60s. A raft of new philosophies appeared which paved the way for the upsurge of awakening ideas of human potential in the 60s and 70s. Popular music burst through boundaries with jazz, ragtime and impressionism just the way psychedelic folk-rock did in the sixties. The 1900s-era Awakening was the Social Gospel and combined religion with progressive politics, much the way preachers from the South led civil rights movements in the sixties, and much the way the abolitionist movement did in the 1830s.

So you can fully expect these same trends will be pushed forward in new and exciting ways in the 2040s and 2050s.

[Eric the Green]

What does a "weak 1T" mean? As far as I can tell, it means the level of consensus will be lower, because of left-over resentments from the Cold Civil War. In this way it will resemble the Gilded Age and Reconstruction and Post-Reconstruction ala the double rhythm. Also, I think society will continue to pursue active progressive goals rather than retreating into "what's good for General Motors is good for America" and "men in gray flannel suits keeping up with the Joneses with no internal gyroscopes dominated by hidden persuaders" and a new "silent generation." People will continue to be outspoken and wave some "bloody shirts."

But Millennials will continue to be civics, and will have plenty of motivation to be civic, as they are today with their many movements for gun control and climate change action. And I speak of the Millennial Generation counted as Millennials up to 2003 at least. They will not become artists; they are already so thoroughly civic in all ways, except only in the last few years have they learned to be more civic in actual civic affairs, led by their late wavers whom Pew calls Gen Z. Well, better late than never. And they will get more so as the next very-activist decade proceeds. So the next artists will be artists, but perhaps not so silent and more like the progressives early on.

[Eric the Green]

Since when do emergency environmental laws restrict personal freedom? It's more about restricting the false "freedom" of business to pollute.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Yes, I think that the next 1T will have a lower level of consensus compared to the last 1T. The next 1T may feel less triumphant, less high than the last one.

However, the next 1T may not closely resemble the Gilded Age.

Like the English 1T that followed the Glorious Revolution, our next 1T may seem almost a blank turning.

[Eric the Green]

(12-17-2019, 01:23 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Yes, I think that the next 1T will have a lower level of consensus compared to the last 1T.  The next 1T may feel less triumphant, less high than the last one.  

However, the  next 1T may not closely resemble the Gilded Age.

Like the English 1T that followed the Glorious Revolution, our next 1T may seem almost a blank turning.

As I read the cycles and the times, I agree the next high may seem less triumphant, although it will be somewhat bouyant and elevated by all the energy of the 2020s. Things will just keep moving.

So I would not expect it to be "blank."

Although, on the other hand, I have considered the last 45 years following the wonderful and turbulent "sixties" to be virtually blank in many ways. So, who knows....

As I consider the double rhythm unfolding, this 4T has started with a phony and muddled era like the 1850s, which I include in the civil war 4T, but will climax with another civil war-like era.

The next 1T will have less consensus and more activism and controversy than the last, and in that way resemble the gilded age post-civil war 1T.

The next 2T will feature more awareness of civic responsibility and be more intellectual like the last appollonian 2T, just as our recent 4T was dionysian like the transcendentalist one. For the first time ever though, the cycles make clear that the next 2T will be the fullfillment of the last 2T.

But turnings are still turnings, and those of the same type have much in common even through the double rhythm.

There are adjustments in the cycle though.

The 3T or the 1980s/90s fell more deeply into reactionary libertarian economics even than the last one did, and was more culturally stale. The next 3T in the 2060s might not be as much libertarian in its economics as the last one, and culturally richer.

Conversely, the previous 1T was much more civic and socialist, preserving the advances of the New Deal, compared to the gilded age 1T that was more libertarian. The 1950s 1T was calm and had much consensus and conformity, although nervous. That might indicate that the 2030s 1T might be more libertarian again, with rich people flaunting their wealth for a little while, but that depends on how much of neo-liberalism is thrown out during our current 4T. And it will not be as calm, conformist and contented as the 1950s were.

This 4T started muddled and will get more active and dangerous, whereas the previous 2T started very turbulent and chaotic and mellowed out and became more reactionary as it went along. The next 2T will have a calmer vibe to it than the last, and will get more bouyant and energetic as it goes along.

[Tim Randal Walker]

There seem to be a number of possibilities for the next 2T.

In regards to the USA, the next 1T could resemble the War of the Hats. In regards to ideology, this Swedish 2T seemed to include two different themes:

1. Reform of the political system.

2. Reform of the economic system.

Don't recall many details-I recall coming across an older thread of the paleo 4T site some years ago. (And, yes, I could imagine different generations being distinguished by head gear, rather than hair length).


Another thing I recall from the paleo 4T site-there was a bit of interaction between elderly Trancendentals and young Missionaries. One thing I can imagine is elderly Boomers mentoring young prophets in New Age spirituality.


Another possibility I came across-again, the paleo 4T site-is that the next 2T may be somewhat less intense than the Missionary Awakening. As I recall, during roughly the same time as the Missionary Awakening there was a 2T in England. But over all, this 2T was quieter than the Missionary Awakening. Churchill, I believe, was a young prophet who came out of this Awakening.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Suggested possible timeline:

1. Next 1T is a weak 1T. (As this 4T is fracturing, it is hard to imagine a triumphant high)

2. Double rhythm suggests that the next 2T will be Apollo type. This 2T may perhaps be less intense than the Missionary Awakening.

3. 3T.

4. Projected Crisis of 2100.

5. 1T.

6. 2T. Double rhythm suggests that this will be of the Dionysus type.

[Eric the Green]

(12-16-2019, 10:20 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(12-12-2019, 12:22 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: 2.  Next 2T.  The double rhythm suggests that this will be Apolo type

I imagine something like the Missionary "social purity movements" attacking Millennial techno-hedonism. Later wave neo-Missionaries might also fight for more personal freedom against Millennial environmental emergency laws.

This is a rather unfortunate post for you, Bill. I'm sure you know that under Republican and even Democratic neo-liberals, business has been allowed to do whatever it wants regardless of the consequences, in the name of "personal freedom." So in the name of "personal freedom" and "get the government out of our lives, " PBS reported today some of these consequences, such as Boeing being allowed by the government to fly its 737 Max planes even though they were unsafe and an accident had killed a couple of hundred people, resulting in a couple of hundred more deaths. And then the next report was about the drug company the put out Oxycontin, avoiding investigations, resulting in even more deaths. No, companies should NOT be allowed to do whatever they want in the name of "freedom." Greedy businessmen who cut corners and pollute and put out unsafe products and put out cars and operate coal plants that cause all the fires and floods and droughts ravaging the planet, should not be allowed to continue doing this.

This current 4T is, as I predicted, primarily a LITERAL saecular winter, because the main element in this current crisis is the onset of climate change. And this is entirely caused by the 40 years of Reaganomics neglect of government regulation. The next prophets will be generation-alpha green pioneers, who will fight for more regulation to save the environment.

These are not normal times. We are faced with the consequences of these neglectful policies, and we have a president and a senate that keeps pushing for more neglect as hard as it can. So, this situation deserves sincere consideration from all Americans.

[Bill the Piper]

(12-17-2019, 06:33 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: This current 4T is, as I predicted, primarily a LITERAL saecular winter, because the main element in this current crisis is the onset of climate change. And this is entirely caused by the 40 years of Reaganomics neglect of government regulation. The next prophets will be generation-alpha green pioneers, who will fight for more regulation to save the environment.

In this case they would be millennials. Every prophetic generation rebels against the civic establishment, and the establishment of the 2050s will be the cool kids of today who worship Saint Greta at the climate altars.

Prophets always push for more individualism, you know that. But money and business will be getting less important because of automation.

[David Horn]

(12-17-2019, 01:10 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: I have written in my book, released a couple of months ago, about this very point, and I mentioned the folks here who think the next awakening is going to be more puritannical like the days of temperance promoted by the Missionaries. It won't happen. The next 2T will be as full sexually-free as the last one, and will take up where the last one left off in all ways. Those of you young enough will live to see this prophecy fulfilled, so mark my words. 

I doubt the next 2T will be like the last one. The entire sexual repression thing was imposed on the youth by their more Puritanical parents. The Millies seem less sexually interested, but not antagonistic. The motivation won't be there for another rebellion.

Eric Wrote:The main difference from the sixties is that the late 2040s will be less wild, angry and crazy and more focused on making deep-rooted change in society, and this will be done on the community level to a great extent. Society will need to be thoroughly greened, and today's virtual tech-obsessed society will indeed be opposed by the new prophets. But environmental laws will be greatly strengthened, and new ways of living will be required-- quite the opposite of Bill's prediction in that regard. The environmental laws will be extended, the great society extended to the world, and a new belle epoche will be hedonistic and artistic. Nature will be admitted back into our lives, and our cities will be overgrown with organic architecture and lifestyles. The next 2T will fulfill the last one: the cycles make that abundantly clear.

This has the patina of wishful thinking all over it. Yes, what you suggest would be a good thing, but, other than a real focus on AGW, I just don't see it. I so agree that the nest cycle will be more productive than this one though.

Eric Wrote:One difference in the 2050s that may be more Apollonian, is that while in the 1970s the Awakening spirit was often hijacked by a regressive trend toward the moral majority fundamentalism and Jesus freaks, next time there will also be an intellectual revival of learning and writing as well as further expansion of networking coming out of the Awakening instead of new religious cults. But the same revival of occultism and psychism will occur, and the same trends toward escapism. Today's revival of scientism and physicalism, so abundant on this website, will be reversed again, as it must be.

You're looking for a spiritual revival without the evangelicalism we're still mired in. I suspect that the 2050s will be more devoid of religion entirely, though some spirituality in a less religious or philosophical framework is likely: more getting in touch with nature.

Eric Wrote:Even beyond this current cycle, it has always been true that, for the most part, Awakenings take up from where the previous ones left off. There may be a double rhythm, but it can't be exaggerated to the point of calling any Awakening era culturally conservative in modern times. Non-traditional religious awakening in the sixties was an echo of the New Thought, Theosophy and Gnostic revivals of the previous awakening, which in turn continued the transcendentalist thinkers before them. The previous awakening of the 1890s-1900s featured liberating fashion and free love movements, drug cults and swirling organic arts and architecture influenced by those drugs, which was echoed in the late 60s. A raft of new philosophies appeared which paved the way for the upsurge of awakening ideas of human potential in the 60s and 70s. Popular music burst through boundaries with jazz, ragtime and impressionism just the way psychedelic folk-rock did in the sixties. The 1900s-era Awakening was the Social Gospel and combined religion with progressive politics, much the way preachers from the South led civil rights movements in the sixties, and much the way the abolitionist movement did in the 1830s.

So you can fully expect these same trends will be pushed forward in new and exciting ways in the 2040s and 2050s.

If you're arguing that the culture will advance rather than retreat, I'm on board. Much beyond that is opaque.

[Eric the Green]

A Common Theme of Global Unrest
By George Friedman
Author of new book The Storm Before the Calm, and not to be confused with those other 2 Friedmans
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/a-common...ISfFlNu6iI

December 3, 2019

(my note: a boost to the theory that the 4T started in 2008!)

From Hong Kong to Tehran to Buenos Aires, the world appears to be destabilizing. The question that has been raised is whether there is an underlying cause triggering this global unrest. On the surface, the answer to that ought to be no. There is so much unrest throughout the world at any point that it would appear to be merely the normal chaos. Unrest, moreover, is unique to every country and usually has multiple causes. Hong Kong, Tehran and Buenos Aires are very different places, each with its own geopolitical circumstances.

Still, there is in this instance one element that is common to them all: 2008. In 2008, the international economic system shifted dramatically, and the changes it wrought have not been fully metabolized. The weakness in the global economy is magnified by the unsolved problems left over from 2008. As a result, there are economic problems that have transformed into political ones. Add to this the shift in U.S. strategy away from military interventions and toward economic confrontations, and the problems are magnified further still. The U.S. is the world’s largest economy and importer and a shift in strategy to economics necessarily affects the economic system.

Consider the riots in Hong Kong. In 2008, China was a powerful exporter, dependent as it was on exports for social stability. The financial collapse created a profound crisis. An economy built on efficient exporting staggers when its customers are unable to buy its goods. The export crisis compounded an incipient financial crisis as cash flow from exports contracted. What followed was a series of purges designed officially to weed out corruption and unofficially to find scapegoats for China’s problems and to intimidate potential opposition. After all, the government had promised prosperity and was now facing the need for austerity. The purges were the beginning of a systematic repression in China that sought to retain Chinese economic dynamism without an equivalent political dynamism.

Things got worse when the U.S., China’s biggest customer, imposed punishing tariffs on Chinese goods and demanded access to China’s markets. (Political concessions were implied.) The pressure from the United States increased the pressure still present from 2008. It in turn intensified suppression. Chinese insecurity compelled the Communist Party to seek increased control over Hong Kong, with an extradition law that would permit China to extract Hong Kong citizens. And that in turn triggered the instability in Hong Kong.

Iran is obviously very different from China. But its experience has a core similarity. The 2008 crisis triggered a slowdown in consumption and therefore in production. In the long run, this inevitably caused major declines in commodities such as oil. Iran was an oil producer and continued to export despite political pressure. But the world price of oil weighed on Iran, causing pressure on the economy, and, eventually, restlessness in the society. As with China, the U.S. imposed economic penalties on Iran for reasons that have little to do with the economy. Regardless, the effect of the global shift in oil pricing, coupled with intense economic pressure from the United States, over time generated intense unrest and government repression.

There has been unrest in countries in which the U.S. played no role. Lebanon, Argentina, Chile and others all went into crisis for idiosyncratic reasons – including an emerging global economic slowdown – that, on top of structural issues, have not been addressed since 2008. In all these countries, there are political problems that do not derive from 2008 or U.S. pressure. In some, such as Lebanon, there are economic problems but they are mostly generated by internal forces.

No general theory of unrest is possible. But a special theory is possible. Those countries most dependent on either industrial exports or the sale of industrial commodities were harmed and few recovered after 2008. The addition of U.S. economic pressure as a tool of foreign policy has compounded this problem, generating unrest. U.S. pressure would not have been nearly as effective without 2008, which reshaped the global system and has been reverberating through it ever since. It is now triggering internal political consequences that are threatening the ability of regimes to cope.

[Eric the Green]

(12-12-2019, 12:22 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I find it hard to project in any detail even as far as the next 2T.

Going by the rhythms of history (as I have posted before):

1.  Next turning is 1T.  I think that at best this will be a weak 1T.  Millies may end up in a Hard Artist role, and if so their endowments may resemble the Progressives.  At this point I doubt that Xers will resemble Gilded.

2.  Next 2T.  The double rhythm suggests that this will be Apollo type.

3.  Next 3T.

4.  Projected Crisis of 2100.  

5.  1T in early 22nd century.

6.  22nd century 2T.  Double rhythm suggests this will Dionysus type.

The Xers already have resembled the Gilded in many ways. Both are considered nomads, even though the Gilded had civic traits too especially before and during the civil war. There won't be any hybrid generations this time, because that effect was caused by the speeding up of the saeculum as the industrial/democratic age got going. But the next 1T could be less calm and conformist and more activist than the 1950s, with lingering resentments much like the Gilded Age 1T after the civil war.

That list could be right, but the difference between Apollo and Dionysian types of 2Ts is slight.

[David Horn]

(02-25-2020, 12:38 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(12-12-2019, 12:22 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I find it hard to project in any detail even as far as the next 2T.

Going by the rhythms of history (as I have posted before):

1.  Next turning is 1T.  I think that at best this will be a weak 1T.  Millies may end up in a Hard Artist role, and if so their endowments may resemble the Progressives.  At this point I doubt that Xers will resemble Gilded.

2.  Next 2T.  The double rhythm suggests that this will be Apollo type.

3.  Next 3T.

4.  Projected Crisis of 2100.  

5.  1T in early 22nd century.

6.  22nd century 2T.  Double rhythm suggests this will Dionysus type.

The Xers already have resembled the Gilded in many ways. Both are considered nomads, even though the Gilded had civic traits too especially before and during the civil war. There won't be any hybrid generations this time, because that effect was caused by the speeding up of the saeculum as the industrial/democratic age got going. But the next 1T could be less calm and conformist and more activist than the 1950s, with lingering resentments much like the Gilded Age 1T after the civil war.

That list could be right, but the difference between Apollo and Dionysian types of 2Ts is slight.

I'm with Mike Alexander on this one.  The so-called anomaly is really a case of missed boundary markers.  The Transcendentals may be the most dynamic US Prophet generation to date, but their cohort length is not.  The same is true of the Compromisers and making a few adjustments: viola, the anomaly disappears.  The Heroic Generation was truncated, but not nonexistent.

[Eric the Green]

(02-25-2020, 02:35 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-25-2020, 12:38 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(12-12-2019, 12:22 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I find it hard to project in any detail even as far as the next 2T.

Going by the rhythms of history (as I have posted before):

1.  Next turning is 1T.  I think that at best this will be a weak 1T.  Millies may end up in a Hard Artist role, and if so their endowments may resemble the Progressives.  At this point I doubt that Xers will resemble Gilded.

2.  Next 2T.  The double rhythm suggests that this will be Apollo type.

3.  Next 3T.

4.  Projected Crisis of 2100.  

5.  1T in early 22nd century.

6.  22nd century 2T.  Double rhythm suggests this will Dionysus type.

The Xers already have resembled the Gilded in many ways. Both are considered nomads, even though the Gilded had civic traits too especially before and during the civil war. There won't be any hybrid generations this time, because that effect was caused by the speeding up of the saeculum as the industrial/democratic age got going. But the next 1T could be less calm and conformist and more activist than the 1950s, with lingering resentments much like the Gilded Age 1T after the civil war.

That list could be right, but the difference between Apollo and Dionysian types of 2Ts is slight.

I'm with Mike Alexander on this one.  The so-called anomaly is really a case of missed boundary markers.  The Transcendentals may be the most dynamic US Prophet generation to date, but their cohort length is not.  The same is true of the Compromisers and making a few adjustments: viola, the anomaly disappears.  The Heroic Generation was truncated, but not nonexistent.

Yes I more or less agree, and was probably the first to say so, many years ago.