To impeach, or not to impeach

[pbrower2a]

It is easy to misunderstand and misinterpret history even with the tool of generational theory. Some of us thought that September 11, 2001 was the start of a Crisis and expected to see rationing, exhortations to buy war bonds, calls to reduce consumer spending, mass enlistments even of prominent people in the Armed Services, and large numbers of people trying to do public duty in war plants. Things did not so work; we instead got a speculative boom that, like others, turned investments into garbage.  We did not have anything like a Crisis era until Americans had cause to fear an economic meltdown as severe as the one that started the Great Depression.  Speculative booms going bust are the financial panics (1857, 1929, 2008) that portend calamity. Four years after the Panic of 1857 the USA was in the Civil War. Within three years of the Great Market Crash of 1929, Germany would go from a benign-but-shaky Weimar Republic to one of the most brutal and aggressive tyrannies ever known. 

So something was different in 2008. Americans were scared of things spiraling into consummate danger with a combination of political chaos in an era of atomic weapons seemingly everywhere. So the chief of the Federal Reserve, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission told the President and Congress what was going to happen, and everybody seemed to go along. Americans elected Barack Obama in a near-landslide, and by the spring of 2009 the hemorrhage of securities prices was over/ The recovery had begun

Obama did everything well in stewardship of the economy -- well enough to allow the sorts of people who lost enough that they could not afford to buy the political process to buy the political process. By 2010 the right-wing economic interests had the funds with which to fund an onslaught upon anything not fully in line with pure plutocracy. Obama's party lost the House of Representatives in 2010. He got re-elected in 2012 despite the vehement efforts of the Right, but the Right won the Senate in 2014 and got the Presidency in 2016 with a political neophyte with despotic tendencies. Meanwhile the Right got control of many state legislatures, a telling marker of which was that Michigan became a Right-to-Work (or as I am tempted to call it, "Duty to Starve") state, demonstrating the increasing power of Big Business over all else in America.

OK. Trump is certifiably awful as President. He is the most immoral person to have ever held the office. He does not understand the Constitutional limits upon the Presidency. Oblivious to the normal methods of getting one's pet legislation enacted and appointments confirmed, he turns to the use of brute partisanship.

In 2018 he loses the House of Representatives, and it can hold him accountable for gross misconduct. 

Here we are.

[pbrower2a]

So much for prologue. Here is a poll:

CBS News poll (Sep 26-27, 2059 adults):

Opening impeachment inquiry:

Approve 55
Disapprove 45

D: 87/13
I: 49/51
R: 23/77

Trump's actions on Ukraine were...

Proper 28
Not proper, but legal 31
Illegal 41

Trump deserves to be impeached over Ukraine:

Deserves 42
Does not deserve 36
Too soon to say 22

D: 75/8/17
I: 35/41/24
R: 16/70/14

[pbrower2a]

Also:

From a brand-new ABC News/Ipsos poll (Sep. 27-28, 504 adults):


How closely have you been following the news about President Donald Trump encouraging
the Ukrainian president to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter:

Very closely 24
Somewhat closely 40
Not so closely 20
Not closely at all 17


How serious of a problem is it that President Trump encouraged the Ukrainian president to
investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter?

Very serious 43
Somewhat serious 21
Not so serious 19
Not serious at all 17


Also from the poll writeup: 32% of Republicans view the conversation as a very or somewhat serious problem (13% very serious).

[pbrower2a]

It keeps getting worse:

Ipsos/Reuters, Sep. 26-30, 2234 adults including 1917 RV (prior poll Sep. 23-24)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 21 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+5)

Trump should be impeached: 

Yes 45 (+8)
No 41 (-4)

An elected official who uses the power of their office to attack political rivals should be removed:

Agree 63 (strongly 38)
Disagree 22 (strongly 7)

An elected official who uses a foreign government to attack a political rival should be removed:

Agree 66 (strongly 44)
Disagree 18 (strongly 6)


RV:

Approve 40 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)

Trump should be impeached: 

Yes 45 (+6)
No 43 (-4)

An elected official who uses the power of their office to attack political rivals should be removed:

Agree 65 (strongly 40)
Disagree 23 (strongly 8 )

An elected official who uses a foreign government to attack a political rival should be removed:

Agree 69 (strongly 46)
Disagree 19 (strongly 6)

[David Horn]

This is one area that polling seems to handle poorly. Impeachment is a political death sentence, so supporters (especially Trump supporters) are uniquely unwilling to agree to it ... until they are. That's the rub. The change of heart is unpredictable, and tied to emotional rather than intellectual evidence. Is a supporter shocked or sufficiently dismayed by some aspect of or action by POTUS to push him (less likely) or her (more likely) over the edge? Once moved, does that person simply withdraw from the arena or become an active antagonist? Impossible to know until it happens.

We're still in the early days. I suspect that the temperament in the Democratic Party makes impeachment unavoidable, but the aftermath is still unknown and, frankly, unknowable. Public opinion can be driven as much as it can drive others to action or inaction. In another month, we'll have a better feel for where this is going, if anywhere.

[pbrower2a]

(10-01-2019, 09:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is one area that polling seems to handle poorly.  Impeachment is a political death sentence, so supporters (especially Trump supporters) are uniquely unwilling to agree to it ... until they are.  That's the rub.  The change of heart is unpredictable, and tied to emotional rather than intellectual evidence.  Is a supporter shocked or sufficiently dismayed by some aspect of or action by POTUS to push him (less likely) or her (more likely) over the edge?  Once moved, does that person simply withdraw from the arena or become an active antagonist?  Impossible to know until it happens.

We're still in the early days.  I suspect that the temperament in the Democratic Party makes impeachment unavoidable, but the aftermath is still unknown and, frankly, unknowable.  Public opinion can be driven as much as it can drive others to action or inaction.    In another month, we'll have a better feel for where this is going, if anywhere.

I concur on the consequences of an impeachment. Bill Clinton was impeached, but not removed; it could be that enough Senators thought the allegations either frivolous or irrelevant. 

We have little experience with impeachment. The glacial pace of American politics in recent years can change quickly into something rapid and definitive, and impeachment can move fast... and shake up American political life. It may be that the elected Republicans are slower to see a Trump collapse than elected Democrats who see misconduct that would be horrible if by one of their own. But for Republicans who have their own agenda, basically an America great for those who already live like sultans on the assumption that what is best for such people is best for Humanity as a whole.

This said, the allegations of gross misconduct of this President have been building steadily until (1) the exposure of the Air Force refueling at a Trump resort -- which is when I started to believe that the President must be impeached -- and then (2) the President of the United States trying to get the President of Ukraine to do political dirty work for him against a potential opponent. 

We can read all the polls that we want -- but here is some historical perspective. To be sure, the process that led to the resignation of Richard Nixon took more time from a "second-rate break-in". But let us remember the differences. 

1. Nobody ever accused Nixon of any financial misdeeds.
2. Nixon's misdeeds started to appear late in his first term and at first seemed trivial and incomprehensible; Trump has been corrupt and despotic from the start of his term in office.
3. Trump is much more personally erratic.
4. Nixon had more political savvy, likely because he had more experience in elective office.
5. America was not as politically polarized in the early 1970s as it is now. When Nixon was President, the bulk of the American public concentrated around the center in a near-normal distribution. Since about 2000, American political life has developed a clear bimodal distribution with little activity near the political center. In 1973, John Stennis was a Democrat and Edwin Brooke was a Republican.    

bimodal distribution:



normal distributions:

  
Normal distributions can be highly-peaked or rather flat.  The bimodal distribution of political orientation  suggests little room for compromise as a technique of achieving the needs of the time --- and both sides say "My way or the highway!" -- and we have gridlock on the metaphorical highway.  

We can all go into long discussions of why American political life is so polarized -- political failure? Arrogant cultures?  You look at the 2008 election and you see Barack Obama winning with margins that one associates with Ronald Reagan in some states and losing with margins that one associates with George McGovern in others. You look at people who see Donald Trump as the most wonderful thing to have ever happened in American politics and a huge number who see Donald Trump as an unmitigated disaster. 

Beyond the generalities of history and formal rules I do not predict results of jury trials, court rulings, and polling results. Usually such is simply premature, and short-term prophecies that can easily go wrong are pointless. This said, history has moved slowly throughout this 4T, and indeed unusually slowly. But every 4T has had a swift and sudden culmination. This could have the rise and fall of the Trump Presidency as its focus. The economic downturn of 2007-2009 did not cause fundamental change in our political and economic system, so something else must. Apocalyptic war? God forbid!

To the extent that the process that took down Nixon has any relevancy to what we now (that was 2T and this is 4T, and we are in nearly-opposite points in the Saeculum, which matters greatly). The political structure is the same, if political life is very different. The Religious Right is much more potent now than it was in the early 1970s, and it has committed deeply to the President whose personal life is as pure a mockery of Christian values as is possible. The erosion of Nixon support came from a higher level (he did normalize relations with China, and he did start a peace process in Indochina) and looks like a slow grinding-down. Trump support looks to be the result of identity more than principle. Maybe the identity politics that started in the 1970's must give way to something more pragmatic and just (an odd combination, but such is possible and even necessary in a 4T that goes well).

Support for Trump has been grinding down slowly. But it is not headed in a good direction for him. 

   

Obviously this is not 1973-1974 anymore, and Trump is not Nixon. Trump has fanatical supporters who can seemingly excuse anything, which may explain why he has yet to get approval numbers below the mid 30's. Again, that is identity more than anything else. This, I believe, will not be enough to rescue Trump.

[Classic-Xer]

(10-01-2019, 09:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is one area that polling seems to handle poorly.  Impeachment is a political death sentence, so supporters (especially Trump supporters) are uniquely unwilling to agree to it ... until they are.  That's the rub.  The change of heart is unpredictable, and tied to emotional rather than intellectual evidence.  Is a supporter shocked or sufficiently dismayed by some aspect of or action by POTUS to push him (less likely) or her (more likely) over the edge?  Once moved, does that person simply withdraw from the arena or become an active antagonist?  Impossible to know until it happens.

We're still in the early days.  I suspect that the temperament in the Democratic Party makes impeachment unavoidable, but the aftermath is still unknown and, frankly, unknowable.  Public opinion can be driven as much as it can drive others to action or inaction.    In another month, we'll have a better feel for where this is going, if anywhere.

Well, I hope the Democrats have someone (a whistle blower) with something more to offer than hearsay for evidence. You'd think blue Americans would understand that they live in a country where it takes more than just hearsay or hatred or fear of someone to convict or legally impeach someone. The blues keep showing us glimpses of their future system of justice and Americans continue rejecting it or ignoring it in favor of sticking with their own. Now, I don't really care if you're strung up by a group of blues for something someone else may have said or thought about you for whatever reason. Heck, I don't care if groups of blues start slaughtering each other the same way for the same clueless/lawless reasons. Right now, I'd say public opinion/attitude on this matter is pretty much "same old liberal/PROGRESSIVE crap different day" at this point.

[pbrower2a]

(10-02-2019, 01:01 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-01-2019, 09:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is one area that polling seems to handle poorly.  Impeachment is a political death sentence, so supporters (especially Trump supporters) are uniquely unwilling to agree to it ... until they are.  That's the rub.  The change of heart is unpredictable, and tied to emotional rather than intellectual evidence.  Is a supporter shocked or sufficiently dismayed by some aspect of or action by POTUS to push him (less likely) or her (more likely) over the edge?  Once moved, does that person simply withdraw from the arena or become an active antagonist?  Impossible to know until it happens.

We're still in the early days.  I suspect that the temperament in the Democratic Party makes impeachment unavoidable, but the aftermath is still unknown and, frankly, unknowable.  Public opinion can be driven as much as it can drive others to action or inaction.    In another month, we'll have a better feel for where this is going, if anywhere.

Well, I hope the Democrats have someone (a whistle blower) with something more to offer than hearsay for evidence. You'd think blue Americans would understand that they live in a country where it takes more than just hearsay or hatred or fear of someone to convict or legally impeach someone. The blues keep showing us glimpses of their future system of justice and Americans continue rejecting it or ignoring it in favor of sticking with their own. Now, I don't really care if you're strung up by a group of blues for something someone else may have said or thought about you for whatever reason. Heck, I don't care if groups of blues start slaughtering each other the same way for the same clueless/lawless reasons. Right now, I'd say public opinion/attitude on this matter is pretty much "same old liberal/PROGRESSIVE crap different day" at this point.

It goes beyond hearsay. At this point we still have a potential case for impeachment, and we are wise to remember the dictum "innocent unless proved guilty". An impeachment is not a criminal trial, as it can be done for things that might not be criminal (the sexcapades of Bill Clinton). 

By the way -- I am satisfied with our system of justice, except that it might be a good idea to abandon the capricious death penalty in state and federal law. I might have concerns with technical matters of law enforcement and evidence-gathering, but such revolves around the quality of police work.

So the vast majority of Democrats despise Donald Trump for his despotic style of governing. Well, that is our right, and the President has given us much cause to loathe him. What he has done would be very wrong if one of ours did it.  

It is your right to confuse us with the Jacobins, just as it is your right to say that the 2019 Detroit Tigers are a superb baseball team. (47-114). You are free to consider Donald Trump the greatest thing to ever happen in American politics. Freedom includes the right to be very, very wrong.

[Eric the Green]

Impeachment seems pretty much a done deal now, since the press reports 223 House Democrats support it. No matter what Trump does, it won't affect his base of support. We have a whole bunch of deplorable goons in this country, who only care about guns, money and fanatical religion. They would support Trump even if he went out onto Park Ave. and shot someone. But it's possible, though unlikely, that he will be removed from office before the election. If so, the Democrats have a better chance of winning, because even Elizabeth Warren can defeat Mike Pence according to the horoscope scores (they have identical scores), and Biden or Bernie can beat him. But if he survives in office, his base could still vote him in, thanks to voter suppression and the electoral college, and the fact that no-one running in 2020 has a higher horoscope score than the Drumpface, and he has the incumbent and new moon before election advantages.

He will still be tough to beat. He is a cult figure who can stir his crowds and talk well on TV. He IS Mussolini. If he runs in 2020 and loses, it will be an anomaly in my system. That's how bad it looks. BUT, Trump is such a bad president that he may be a walking anomaly, so I would not count the Democrats out-- even Warren. I can't predict they will win though, especially if Warren in the nominee.

[Eric the Green]

(10-02-2019, 01:01 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-01-2019, 09:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is one area that polling seems to handle poorly.  Impeachment is a political death sentence, so supporters (especially Trump supporters) are uniquely unwilling to agree to it ... until they are.  That's the rub.  The change of heart is unpredictable, and tied to emotional rather than intellectual evidence.  Is a supporter shocked or sufficiently dismayed by some aspect of or action by POTUS to push him (less likely) or her (more likely) over the edge?  Once moved, does that person simply withdraw from the arena or become an active antagonist?  Impossible to know until it happens.

We're still in the early days.  I suspect that the temperament in the Democratic Party makes impeachment unavoidable, but the aftermath is still unknown and, frankly, unknowable.  Public opinion can be driven as much as it can drive others to action or inaction.    In another month, we'll have a better feel for where this is going, if anywhere.

Well, I hope the Democrats have someone (a whistle blower) with something more to offer than hearsay for evidence. You'd think blue Americans would understand that they live in a country where it takes more than just hearsay or hatred or fear of someone to convict or legally impeach someone. The blues keep showing us glimpses of their future system of justice and Americans continue rejecting it or ignoring it in favor of sticking with their own. Now, I don't really care if you're strung up by a group of blues for something someone else may have said or thought about you for whatever reason. Heck, I don't care if groups of blues start slaughtering each other the same way for the same clueless/lawless reasons. Right now, I'd say public opinion/attitude on this matter is pretty much "same old liberal/PROGRESSIVE crap different day" at this point.

You red guys are funny! It has been confirmed by officials that this was more than hearsay; the whistleblower is a credible witness. There are abundant grounds to impeach and convict Drumpface. He uses his office for his personal gain, such as hotel business, and accepts gifts from other countries, including accusations against his political opponents. That violates the emoluments clause. He called up a foreign leader and asked him to develop a false conspiracy about his political opponent and accuse that opponent of crimes he didn't commit, as a "favor though" in exchange for weapons to fight the Russian invaders of his country. He asked his counsel to fire Mueller directly, and then covered it up and stopped that counsel from testifying. Nixon was forced to resign by Senate Republicans, including Barry Goldwater, for just such conduct. He obstructs justice at every turn, and refuses to turn over his tax returns. That is just the tip of the iceberg. Mueller couldn't indict him for collusion only because Trump had destroyed the evidence, and couldn't indict him for obstruction of justice because the Attorney General said he couldn't indict him for it, but he clearly laid out 10 instances of it. 

The only reason he isn't gone is because of you guys-- all of you red-base people, mostly rural and some suburban white voters who like him because they are indoctrinated, prejudiced, and have their egos stoked by trickle-down, self-reliance, anti-tax and pro-gun rhetoric that appeals to those same prejudices. Public opinion is shifting though. There is a majority now saying the impeachment inquiry should go forward. That doesn't mean you guys won't still back him, and it doesn't mean your senators will convict him, knowing that you guys might not support them in doing so.

[Eric the Green]

(09-30-2019, 08:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: It keeps getting worse:

Ipsos/Reuters, Sep. 26-30, 2234 adults including 1917 RV (prior poll Sep. 23-24)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 21 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+5)

Trump should be impeached: 

Yes 45 (+8)
No 41 (-4)

An elected official who uses the power of their office to attack political rivals should be removed:

Agree 63 (strongly 38)
Disagree 22 (strongly 7)

An elected official who uses a foreign government to attack a political rival should be removed:

Agree 66 (strongly 44)
Disagree 18 (strongly 6)


RV:

Approve 40 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)

Trump should be impeached: 

Yes 45 (+6)
No 43 (-4)

An elected official who uses the power of their office to attack political rivals should be removed:

Agree 65 (strongly 40)
Disagree 23 (strongly 8 )

An elected official who uses a foreign government to attack a political rival should be removed:

Agree 69 (strongly 46)
Disagree 19 (strongly 6)

It is funny how a strong majority agrees that an elected official who uses his power to attack his political rivals should be removed from office, and yet Trump who has clearly done so only agrees by a few points that he should be impeached. It shows his power over his base of prejudiced and ignorant voters.

If a president is allowed to use his powers to attack his political opponents, and asks foreign governments to help him in this attack, then clearly we are no longer a democratic republic, and we have installed a dictator in office. We are scarcely better than North Korea or Saudi Arabia then. Trump's followers are just like the crowds celebrating 70 years of communist rule in China yesterday, while real people rise up for democracy against them in Hong Kong. Trump is Xi Jin Ping, the Republicans are his goose-stepping flag-waving followers, and the Democrats are the people of Hong Kong rising up for freedom.

[David Horn]

(10-02-2019, 01:01 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-01-2019, 09:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: We're still in the early days.  I suspect that the temperament in the Democratic Party makes impeachment unavoidable, but the aftermath is still unknown and, frankly, unknowable.  Public opinion can be driven as much as it can drive others to action or inaction.    In another month, we'll have a better feel for where this is going, if anywhere.

Well, I hope the Democrats have someone (a whistle blower) with something more to offer than hearsay for evidence. You'd think blue Americans would understand that they live in a country where it takes more than just hearsay or hatred or fear of someone to convict or legally impeach someone...

One thing you forget. Trump's WH handed the House a partial transcript of the Ukraine call that had all the elements needed to prosecute and convict.  There was motive (getting Biden), means (he squeezed the Zelensky with the "favor" for money ploy), and he even tried to extend it to having Zelensky give Putin a free pass on the 2016 election interference.  It's all there, and the source is Mafia Don himself.

If you want more, all they need are his tax returns.  I suspect that Putin's oligarch squad have been propping him up for at least a decade -- and he owes them big time.

People understand extortion and bribery.  That's enough right there.

[Classic-Xer]

(10-02-2019, 06:59 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(10-02-2019, 01:01 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-01-2019, 09:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is one area that polling seems to handle poorly.  Impeachment is a political death sentence, so supporters (especially Trump supporters) are uniquely unwilling to agree to it ... until they are.  That's the rub.  The change of heart is unpredictable, and tied to emotional rather than intellectual evidence.  Is a supporter shocked or sufficiently dismayed by some aspect of or action by POTUS to push him (less likely) or her (more likely) over the edge?  Once moved, does that person simply withdraw from the arena or become an active antagonist?  Impossible to know until it happens.

We're still in the early days.  I suspect that the temperament in the Democratic Party makes impeachment unavoidable, but the aftermath is still unknown and, frankly, unknowable.  Public opinion can be driven as much as it can drive others to action or inaction.    In another month, we'll have a better feel for where this is going, if anywhere.

Well, I hope the Democrats have someone (a whistle blower) with something more to offer than hearsay for evidence. You'd think blue Americans would understand that they live in a country where it takes more than just hearsay or hatred or fear of someone to convict or legally impeach someone. The blues keep showing us glimpses of their future system of justice and Americans continue rejecting it or ignoring it in favor of sticking with their own. Now, I don't really care if you're strung up by a group of blues for something someone else may have said or thought about you for whatever reason. Heck, I don't care if groups of blues start slaughtering each other the same way for the same clueless/lawless reasons. Right now, I'd say public opinion/attitude on this matter is pretty much "same old liberal/PROGRESSIVE crap different day" at this point.

It goes beyond hearsay. At this point we still have a potential case for impeachment, and we are wise to remember the dictum "innocent unless proved guilty". An impeachment is not a criminal trial, as it can be done for things that might not be criminal (the sexcapades of Bill Clinton). 

By the way -- I am satisfied with our system of justice, except that it might be a good idea to abandon the capricious death penalty in state and federal law. I might have concerns with technical matters of law enforcement and evidence-gathering, but such revolves around the quality of police work.

So the vast majority of Democrats despise Donald Trump for his despotic style of governing. Well, that is our right, and the President has given us much cause to loathe him. What he has done would be very wrong if one of ours did it.  

It is your right to confuse us with the Jacobins, just as it is your right to say that the 2019 Detroit Tigers are a superb baseball team. (47-114). You are free to consider Donald Trump the greatest thing to ever happen in American politics. Freedom includes the right to be very, very wrong.

As I recall, Bill Clinton was impeached for lying under oath which is still largely viewed as being a crime in America. Funny how a highly intelligent, well educated liberal/ Democrat like Clinton was unable to comprehend/ understand/ accept that a sexual relationship usually, can and often ncludes other sexual activities than just sexual intercourse itself. As I recall, Bill Clinton was formally barred for breaking the law.

Yes, it is my right view/judge you (blues) the same way as I'd view/ judge a group like the Jacobins or Neo Nazies and so forth. I must say, the blues appear to be similar to groups like them in many ways. I think you would follow a Nazi or Bolshevik as long as he/she wasn't openly NAZI or Bolshevik and so on. You're pretty much like them now. You basically have a state run media system that in place with a wealthy deciding which news your going to hear. Did you know Biden and his son were involved in shady dealings with Ukrainians while Biden was VP? What do you think, should we string him and his kid up and give you their wealth without an investigation and trial? I think it's time for the so-called/ self proclaimed intellectuals to pull their heads out of their partisan blues asses and start thinking more in line with everyday Americans because the everyday Americans are going to determine the elections. Hint. The everyday American isn't exclusively a woman voter or a black voter or a LGBT voter or  Hispanic voter or Liberal/Progressive voter. The everyday American voter could be any of them these days.

[Eric the Green]

(10-02-2019, 05:28 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-02-2019, 06:59 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(10-02-2019, 01:01 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(10-01-2019, 09:37 AM)David Horn Wrote: This is one area that polling seems to handle poorly.  Impeachment is a political death sentence, so supporters (especially Trump supporters) are uniquely unwilling to agree to it ... until they are.  That's the rub.  The change of heart is unpredictable, and tied to emotional rather than intellectual evidence.  Is a supporter shocked or sufficiently dismayed by some aspect of or action by POTUS to push him (less likely) or her (more likely) over the edge?  Once moved, does that person simply withdraw from the arena or become an active antagonist?  Impossible to know until it happens.

We're still in the early days.  I suspect that the temperament in the Democratic Party makes impeachment unavoidable, but the aftermath is still unknown and, frankly, unknowable.  Public opinion can be driven as much as it can drive others to action or inaction.    In another month, we'll have a better feel for where this is going, if anywhere.

Well, I hope the Democrats have someone (a whistle blower) with something more to offer than hearsay for evidence. You'd think blue Americans would understand that they live in a country where it takes more than just hearsay or hatred or fear of someone to convict or legally impeach someone. The blues keep showing us glimpses of their future system of justice and Americans continue rejecting it or ignoring it in favor of sticking with their own. Now, I don't really care if you're strung up by a group of blues for something someone else may have said or thought about you for whatever reason. Heck, I don't care if groups of blues start slaughtering each other the same way for the same clueless/lawless reasons. Right now, I'd say public opinion/attitude on this matter is pretty much "same old liberal/PROGRESSIVE crap different day" at this point.

It goes beyond hearsay. At this point we still have a potential case for impeachment, and we are wise to remember the dictum "innocent unless proved guilty". An impeachment is not a criminal trial, as it can be done for things that might not be criminal (the sexcapades of Bill Clinton). 

By the way -- I am satisfied with our system of justice, except that it might be a good idea to abandon the capricious death penalty in state and federal law. I might have concerns with technical matters of law enforcement and evidence-gathering, but such revolves around the quality of police work.

So the vast majority of Democrats despise Donald Trump for his despotic style of governing. Well, that is our right, and the President has given us much cause to loathe him. What he has done would be very wrong if one of ours did it.  

It is your right to confuse us with the Jacobins, just as it is your right to say that the 2019 Detroit Tigers are a superb baseball team. (47-114). You are free to consider Donald Trump the greatest thing to ever happen in American politics. Freedom includes the right to be very, very wrong.

As I recall, Bill Clinton was impeached for lying under oath which is still largely viewed as being a crime in America. Funny how a highly intelligent, well educated liberal/ Democrat like Clinton was unable to comprehend/ understand/ accept that a sexual relationship usually, can and often ncludes other sexual activities than just sexual intercourse itself. As I recall, Bill Clinton was formally barred for breaking the law.

Yes, it is my right view/judge you (blues) the same way as I'd view/ judge a group like the Jacobins or Neo Nazies and so forth. I must say, the blues appear to be similar to groups like them in many ways. I think you would follow a Nazi or Bolshevik as long as he/she wasn't openly NAZI or Bolshevik and so on. You're pretty much like them now. You basically have a state run media system that in place with a wealthy deciding which news your going to hear. Did you know Biden and his son were involved in shady dealings with Ukrainians while Biden was VP? What do you think, should we string him and his kid up and give you their wealth without an investigation and trial? I think it's time for the so-called/ self proclaimed intellectuals to pull their heads out of their partisan blues asses and start thinking more in line with everyday Americans because the everyday Americans are going to determine the elections. Hint. The everyday American isn't exclusively a woman voter or a black voter or a LGBT voter or  Hispanic voter or Liberal/Progressive voter. The everyday American voter could be any of them these days.

Bill Clinton didn't lie. He just fudged in saying whether or not he had sex, saying it depends on how you define it. You know, "it depends on what the definition of the word is, is." And what the (fuck, pardon the pun) did Bill's private sexual affair have anything to do with the presidency? What Trump has done is use his powers for his personal political and financial gain, and obstruct justice. Nixon was forced to resign over less. That is Nazi, and that is Bolshevik, and you red guys follow Nazis and Bolsheviks as though you were goosestepping at a communist party rally.


And if you believe these phony, debunked conspiracy theories about Biden and his son, then you have definitely been conned. Which is what you red right-wingers have been for years now. Totally conned and fooled, and willingly so. Biden's son just got a good job in Ukraine, probably because the company wanted to have some pull with the USA administration. But that's all that happened; Hunter Biden got a job. You capitalists should be proud of him. Biden asked Ukraine to fire a prosecutor for not investigating corruption, along with all the other main Western leaders. 

You guys just can't seem to get anything straight. All you want is to defend your disgusting trickle-down self-reliance ideology and your racism. Gimme a break. And guess what, you put women, blacks, hispanics, LGBTQ folks, people under 35 and liberal/progressives together, and you've got 70% of the people. I know women are not going to vote 100% against Trump, but still that's a big constituency, and you red whites from the rural sticks and you suburban hicks feel threatened by these demographics, and that's why you vote for Trump so he can build his wall. You think you guys have had it with we blues; well, we have had just about enough of you reds too. And if we get gun control one of these days, and you rebel, you will have your guns confiscated and your asses put in jail or worse.

[pbrower2a]

Bill Clinton was impeached for something that was generally recognized as nobody's business. The ineffectiveness of the impeachment shows that. What relevance that has to the impeachment (and even a formal inquiry is part of the process) is much in doubt. Democrats are out to get him, but the question will be on their focus. Bribery and extortion look most obvious -- and inexcusable.

[David Horn]

(10-02-2019, 11:55 PM)taramarie Wrote: LOL!!! One of my childhood memories was "I did not have sex with that woman." Which he did. Now who is lying here! Good grief how can someone say that wasn't a lie? Classic xer is right here and you are lying for Bill.

Agreed: sex isn't just intercourse, and Bill certainly had sex. The only real difference between the Clinton affair and Trump's actions (too many to list) is personal versus public crimes. Trump is involving the nation in his crap.

[pbrower2a]

(10-03-2019, 02:00 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-02-2019, 11:55 PM)taramarie Wrote: LOL!!! One of my childhood memories was "I did not have sex with that woman." Which he did. Now who is lying here! Good grief how can someone say that wasn't a lie? Classic xer is right here and you are lying for Bill.

Agreed: sex isn't just intercourse, and Bill certainly had sex.  The only real difference between the Clinton affair and Trump's actions (too many to list) is personal versus public crimes.  Trump is involving the nation in his crap.

I consider grabbing women by their "kitty-cats" a form of sexuality... and criminal if unwelcome. 

Bill Clinton's sex looks far more consensual, and it should have never been grist for impeachment.

[David Horn]

(10-03-2019, 03:50 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(10-03-2019, 02:00 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-02-2019, 11:55 PM)taramarie Wrote: LOL!!! One of my childhood memories was "I did not have sex with that woman." Which he did. Now who is lying here! Good grief how can someone say that wasn't a lie? Classic xer is right here and you are lying for Bill.

Agreed: sex isn't just intercourse, and Bill certainly had sex.  The only real difference between the Clinton affair and Trump's actions (too many to list) is personal versus public crimes.  Trump is involving the nation in his crap.

I consider grabbing women by their "kitty-cats" a form of sexuality... and criminal if unwelcome. 

Bill Clinton's sex looks far more consensual, and it should have never been grist for impeachment.

Yes, the Lewinsky affair (pun intended) was consensual, though others like Anita Broderick may have been anything but.  Bill was and probably still is a randy guy, and not the best example of Presidential stewardship.  Then again, Dwight Eisenhower had a long-term affair with an aide that was kept solidly under wraps while he and Mamie were alive, and let's not forget JFK.

Trump, on the other hand, has used the US government as an ATM for his crappy businesses.  He has no trouble trading on the integrity of the nation to make that happen; it's all about him.  So yes, he's vastly worse … especially considering his crotch grabbing and sleeping around while his wife was pregnant.  Trump is slime, top to bottom.

[Eric the Green]

Fox News reveals another smoking gun.

[Eric the Green]

(10-03-2019, 02:00 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(10-02-2019, 11:55 PM)taramarie Wrote: LOL!!! One of my childhood memories was "I did not have sex with that woman." Which he did. Now who is lying here! Good grief how can someone say that wasn't a lie? Classic xer is right here and you are lying for Bill.

Agreed: sex isn't just intercourse, and Bill certainly had sex.  The only real difference between the Clinton affair and Trump's actions (too many to list) is personal versus public crimes.  Trump is involving the nation in his crap.

Right. And Trump's sexual behavior is criminal, whereas Clinton's was not. The only question was whether he lied about it under oath. In his mind, he did not, because he defined sex as intercourse, and what he had was oral sex. He later admitted that his behavior was inappropriate, and that he covered it up to protect his family. I admire Hillary for taking him to the closet, and then forgiving him. But to impeach him based on that was certainly nothing more than politics by a corrupt group of oligarchic Republican politicians who, it was CERTAINLY proven, had much WORSE sexual behavior in their OWN backgrounds. They were a bunch of stupid, lying, greedy hypocrites. To focus anything at all on Clinton's sexual actions and testimony is pretty silly and, what's worse, terribly distracting, and deliberately so by those who defend a compulsive liar and destroyer of everything of value-- our fake orange president.