The Coronavirus

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-15-2020, 08:58 PM)David Horn Wrote: We also got our stimulus money in electronic form. It's amazing to me that Trump is actually getting his signature on the hard checks.  

Perhaps we should consider ourselves lucky that Trump didn't hold up the stimulus electronic transfers to get them to be from himself personally.  

[Bob Butler 54]

On Rachel’s show last night, she reported on one New York City hospital’s maternity ward.  After an incident where one of the pregnant women was contagious with Coronavirus, they began testing all women being admitted.  The result?  One woman in eight had the virus, most not showing symptoms but contagious.  As no one suggested that woman of childbearing age are not typical of the general population, one in eight may be typical in New York City.

In a way that is bad news.  Social distancing is not preventing the virus from reaching the general population.  Even as the city’s curves are beginning to bend down, the virus has become common in the general population.

In another, it may be good news.  A lot of people will soon be immune.  If we had testing, there would be a good number of people who could return to work or perform vital functions.

Unfortunately, we do not have testing.  The economic restart that Trump so desperately wants is held up by that.

[pbrower2a]

(04-15-2020, 12:30 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Somebody out and said it...  As CNN reports...

Quote:An Indiana congressman said Tuesday that letting more Americans die from the novel coronavirus is the "lesser of two evils" compared with the economy cratering due to social distancing measures.

Speaking with radio station WIBC in Indiana, Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth asserted that, while he appreciated the science behind the virus' spread, "it is always the American government's position to say, in the choice between the loss of our way of life as Americans and the loss of life, of American lives, we have to always choose the latter."

It figures -- putting profits above life. 

Life is rough. Whatever was wrong with a personal life before COVID-19 hits people even harder. A bad domestic situation? It is more in your face. Anyone out of work with a proclivity to do child abuse is even more dangerous. A life that was grim, dreary, and joyless is probably even more so. Anything that goes wrong may be harder to solve now. 

Getting out of the restraints that most of us know will be at the least a short-term relief. The big problem is that we end up with more needless deaths. 

We rightly put life above economic gain. Indiana has the death penalty for killing for economic gain, whether for an inheritance or (much more likely) in a robbery.

[Warren Dew]

(04-16-2020, 04:23 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: On Rachel’s show last night, she reported on one New York City hospital’s maternity ward.  After an incident where one of the pregnant women was contagious with Coronavirus, they began testing all women being admitted.  The result?  One woman in eight had the virus, most not showing symptoms but contagious.  As no one suggested that woman of childbearing age are not typical of the general population, one in eight may be typical in New York City.

In a way that is bad news.  Social distancing is not preventing the virus from reaching the general population.  Even as the city’s curves are beginning to bend down, the virus has become common in the general population.

This should be unsurprising to anyone who understands the math.  The fact that the NY curve bent over gradually, rather than in sharp increments, showed that the change from exponential growth to exponential decline was being driven by a reduction in the vulnerable population as they got sick and recovered.  The numbers were consistent with a 10% total infection rate being required, so one in eight sounds about right.

If NY lets off significantly on mitigations, 10% will no longer be sufficient, and exponential growth will start again.

[Bob Butler 54]

It seems the Great Lakes region is forming another allegiance of states coordinating their actions, similar to what is already happening on either coast.

CNN has an article.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

[Warren Dew]

Shutting down businesses isn't social distancing; it's shutting down businesses. Let's at least be honest about it.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-17-2020, 12:16 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Shutting down businesses isn't social distancing; it's shutting down businesses.  Let's at least be honest about it.

I do know of a lawyer who is quietly ignoring Massachusetts' stay at home order in a fairly safe way.  He has only a few employees.  He does not invite clients to visit the office, but does his work mostly using the telephone and internet.  The employees mostly sleep at the office, and do not rejoin families to spread anything.  He can keep going as well as those who work at home.

Then there are businesses such as the meat packing plant in South Dakota.  It is set up to have employees working closely together, in violation of any distancing protocol.  As soon as the first employee has the virus, you have a hot spot.  Yet, you have to keep open some of these businesses which are impossible to retrofit to social distancing.

Shutting down everything is a one size fits all solution.  When the problem first occurs you reach for the quick and dirty solution.  We have now a chance to get far more nuanced.  But you have to reduce contact enough to not overwhelm the medical system.  You have to have exponential decay rather than exponential growth.  Given the lack of testing, it is hard to customize.  You end up throwing away a lot of babies with the bathwater.

You might also isolate seniors more.  Younger people could take more risks of catching the virus, but be ready to isolate more thoroughly while they are contagious.  Seniors would be a problem, with much more isolation implemented longer.

Having some sort of plan in place which maintains social distancing while keeping some productivity should allow a business to reopen.  We are entering a phase where some of that might be done.  The lack of testing is still a problem.

[pbrower2a]

(04-16-2020, 11:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

Cranks -- cornerstones of some authoritarian causes. See also young-earth creationists, anti-vaxxers, Holocaust deniers, "scientific" racists, climate-change deniers, 9/11 conspiracy theorists, and those who claim that the moon landing was staged on a Hollywood sound-stage.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-17-2020, 05:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-16-2020, 11:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

Cranks -- cornerstones of some authoritarian causes. See also young-earth creationists, anti-vaxxers, Holocaust deniers, "scientific" racists, climate-change deniers, 9/11 conspiracy theorists, and those who claim that the moon landing was staged on a Hollywood sound-stage.

They are more than just cranks.  They value themselves and seek personal benefit at the cost of their country and those who are making considerable sacrifice for the common good.  They are selfish and hedonistic.  The time for that is now past.

A good part of what bugs me is the saying, “Make America great again.” Then we have this conflict between those like the medical community and first responders who sacrifice for the communal good, and the hedonistic selfish people who go their own way and make the sacrifices made all the more repeated and necessary. Want to know what made America great once, what greatness is? Look no further than that.

[David Horn]

(04-16-2020, 04:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-16-2020, 04:23 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: On Rachel’s show last night, she reported on one New York City hospital’s maternity ward.  After an incident where one of the pregnant women was contagious with Coronavirus, they began testing all women being admitted.  The result?  One woman in eight had the virus, most not showing symptoms but contagious.  As no one suggested that woman of childbearing age are not typical of the general population, one in eight may be typical in New York City.

In a way that is bad news.  Social distancing is not preventing the virus from reaching the general population.  Even as the city’s curves are beginning to bend down, the virus has become common in the general population.

This should be unsurprising to anyone who understands the math.  The fact that the NY curve bent over gradually, rather than in sharp increments, showed that the change from exponential growth to exponential decline was being driven by a reduction in the vulnerable population as they got sick and recovered.  The numbers were consistent with a 10% total infection rate being required, so one in eight sounds about right.

If NY lets off significantly on mitigations, 10% will no longer be sufficient, and exponential growth will start again.

The curve bent because the number of human contacts declined … period!  If they resume, it will reverse, as it did in Singapore: the paragon of virtue on testing and tracking.  They thought: OK, let's open up, and cases emerged out of the background.  Count on that everywhere.

[David Horn]

(04-16-2020, 11:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

If it was possible to let them have their way in one or more places isolated from the rest of us, that would make for nearly perfect all-volunteer control groups.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-17-2020, 12:04 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-16-2020, 11:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

If it was possible to let them have their way in one or more places isolated from the rest of us, that would make for nearly perfect all-volunteer control groups.

Darwin Award candidates as well?

[Classic-Xer]

(04-17-2020, 03:48 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 12:16 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Shutting down businesses isn't social distancing; it's shutting down businesses.  Let's at least be honest about it.

I do know of a lawyer who is quietly ignoring Massachusetts' stay at home order in a fairly safe way.  He has only a few employees.  He does not invite clients to visit the office, but does his work mostly using the telephone and internet.  The employees mostly sleep at the office, and do not rejoin families to spread anything.  He can keep going as well as those who work at home.

Then there are businesses such as the meat packing plant in South Dakota.  It is set up to have employees working closely together, in violation of any distancing protocol.  As soon as the first employee has the virus, you have a hot spot.  Yet, you have to keep open some of these businesses which are impossible to retrofit to social distancing.

Shutting down everything is a one size fits all solution.  When the problem first occurs you reach for the quick and dirty solution.  We have now a chance to get far more nuanced.  But you have to reduce contact enough to not overwhelm the medical system.  You have to have exponential decay rather than exponential growth.  Given the lack of testing, it is hard to customize.  You end up throwing away a lot of babies with the bathwater.

You might also isolate seniors more.  Younger people could take more risks of catching the virus, but be ready to isolate more thoroughly while they are contagious.  Seniors would be a problem, with much more isolation implemented longer.

Having some sort of plan in place which maintains social distancing while keeping some productivity should allow a business to reopen.  We are entering a phase where some of that might be done.  The lack of testing is still a problem.

It's been about not overwhelming the medical system from the start. I assume that covid19 was already here before we were formally notified by the Chinese government as to the magnitude of their problem. For all I know, I may have already had it thinking it was a minor cold or may even have it now since I've been out to get stuff like millions of others. I'm not sleeping six feet away from my wife or walking six feet away from my daughter as we are passing each other on stairs or in hall ways. Personally, I think we're all right for the most part since we've been healthy the entire time while being some what isolated and exposed.

[pbrower2a]

(04-17-2020, 10:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 05:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(04-16-2020, 11:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

Cranks -- cornerstones of some authoritarian causes. See also young-earth creationists, anti-vaxxers, Holocaust deniers, "scientific" racists, climate-change deniers, 9/11 conspiracy theorists, and those who claim that the moon landing was staged on a Hollywood sound-stage.

They are more than just cranks.  They value themselves and seek personal benefit at the cost of their country and those who are making considerable sacrifice for the common good.  They are selfish and hedonistic.  The time for that is now past.

A good part of what bugs me is the saying, “Make America great again.”  Then we have this conflict between those like the medical community and first responders who sacrifice for the communal good, and the hedonistic selfish people who go their own way and make the sacrifices made all the more repeated and necessary.  Want to know what made America great once, what greatness is?  Look no further than that.

Hurt feelings about a loss of national pride is common in pathological nationalism. "Didn't we used to rule?"... Weren't we once kings here?

COVID-19 is a genuine Crisis, as if a Crisis war in fatalities alone. 

Many of us have made voluntary changes to our lives out of a fear of pointless death, and if we do not get the point with public service ads and the appeals of politicians we find out that if we go somewhere we find that there is nothing to do there. One such trip is enough to convince us. Stay  home. Flawed as our live can be, we don't want to get sick and die -- or even end up under medical care. Life is miserable under a ventilator. I need remind people of the contempt that physicians often have for alcoholics with advanced cirrhosis. An uncle by marriage was a heavy drinker almost all his adult life, and he had the most egregious liver that some medical students ever saw. As I understood (he was sedated or unconscious) the professor mocked what got him to his doom. 

Even if I am not a Mormon, I am glad to have "Mormon lungs" and a "Mormon liver". 

So if we get through this Crisis we will be able to make up for lost time.  To do this we must survive. Surely we want loved ones to be around.

The bigger the death toll, the bigger will be the economic consequences. 

But you know that already. We are coming to recognize that a reliable food supply is more important than anything else.  As it turns out, a pork-processing place in South Dakota operating at full speed and with no protections of workers from the COVID-19 virus ended up a hot-spot. Much pork had to be destroyed so it would never reach the market.

[David Horn]

(04-17-2020, 12:11 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 12:04 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-16-2020, 11:05 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: CNN is reporting that Social-distancing deniers have arrived.  The red pattern has always been to deny any problem that can only be solved be big government and big taxes.  The Coronavirus obviously counts.  The efforts to isolate by government order are considered tyrannical.  Trump’s attempts to reopen the country and minimize these isolation are to be applauded.  The old values favoring Unraveling selfishness and hedonism are thus continued.  The post trigger dedication to the common good, to helping out the people on the front lines, is shunned.

Michigan had a protest recently, where the protesters ignored social distancing, flew Trump banners, and if there were any contaminated people carried the Coronavirus back home to their communities.  More hot spots.

If it was possible to let them have their way in one or more places isolated from the rest of us, that would make for nearly perfect all-volunteer control groups.

Darwin Award candidates as well?

H-m-m-m.  Darwin Group Awards, I think.  It's like a team sport, just stupid.

[Warren Dew]

(04-17-2020, 03:48 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Shutting down everything is a one size fits all solution.  When the problem first occurs you reach for the quick and dirty solution.  We have now a chance to get far more nuanced.  But you have to reduce contact enough to not overwhelm the medical system.  You have to have exponential decay rather than exponential growth.  Given the lack of testing, it is hard to customize.  You end up throwing away a lot of babies with the bathwater.

There's definitely room for fine tuning.  Masks reduce transmission by a factor of 3.4 if everyone wears them.  Having everyone wear masks where possible, including in essential businesses not currently required to use masks, and continuing telecommuting and school closures, would likely more than make up for reopening all businesses.  Where masks don't work, such as in restaurants, you could make other adjustments, such as taking out every other table.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-17-2020, 05:45 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 03:48 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Shutting down everything is a one size fits all solution.  When the problem first occurs you reach for the quick and dirty solution.  We have now a chance to get far more nuanced.  But you have to reduce contact enough to not overwhelm the medical system.  You have to have exponential decay rather than exponential growth.  Given the lack of testing, it is hard to customize.  You end up throwing away a lot of babies with the bathwater.

There's definitely room for fine tuning.  Masks reduce transmission by a factor of 3.4 if everyone wears them.  Having everyone wear masks where possible, including in essential businesses not currently required to use masks, and continuing telecommuting and school closures, would likely more than make up for reopening all businesses.  Where masks don't work, such as in restaurants, you could make other adjustments, such as taking out every other table.

The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find. The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early. Thus, the less the White House wants folks to test. To him, it is about the election rather than the lives at risk. Alas for Trump, the timing of the Coronavirus is such that the states will get their testing without federal help in order to restart the economy… long before the election.

But I agree there is lots of room for fine tuning.

[Warren Dew]

(04-17-2020, 07:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find.  The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early.

Sure - because your beliefs are politically motivated.  A lot of conservatives see it as the opposite:  the more you find, the lower the fatality rate becomes, and the better Trump looks.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-17-2020, 07:43 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(04-17-2020, 07:40 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The way I am figuring it, the more you test, the more you find.  The more you find, the worse Trump looks in ignoring the problem early.

Sure - because your beliefs are politically motivated.  A lot of conservatives see it as the opposite:  the more you find, the lower the fatality rate becomes, and the better Trump looks.

If Trump agreed with you, then why is he working so hard to block testing?