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Will the new saeculum start after the pandemic is over?
#21
(04-22-2020, 11:26 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I expect that, during the next 1T, we will look back and decide that this 4T is its own beast; that it wasn't quite like any previous 4T.

If there is any resemblance to a prior 4T, it seems the ACW is a lot closer than any other.  The run-up to that 4T was a long and messy attempt to avoid the crisis, but it came nonetheless. We're following that part of the playbook rather closely.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#22
(04-22-2020, 03:35 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-22-2020, 11:26 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I expect that, during the next 1T, we will look back and decide that this 4T is its own beast; that it wasn't quite like any previous 4T.

If there is any resemblance to a prior 4T, it seems the ACW is a lot closer than any other.  The run-up to that 4T was a long and messy attempt to avoid the crisis, but it came nonetheless. We're following that part of the playbook rather closely.

I think that with nukes, the chance of a true crisis war is about shot, thus the obvious trigger of the regeneracy is gone.  Before nukes, one major power was always ever so ready to start a big war.  The elites of the winning power had a good chance of increasing their influence, and did not try to stop a war.  Since, they would become dust, and have been able to promote leaders that are a different sort of crazy.

We finally got a trigger in the virus as we were about to leave the Prophet - Nomad - Civic constellation of generations.  The question is whether the economy will be so shot as to prevent implementation of the whole blue agenda.  If the virus does cripple us economically, more or less a year of production gone, there is apt to be one heck of an awakening.

I am still not sure, if crisis wars are not the inevitable Trigger, if having a Trigger will be the norm in an age of nukes.  If not, the rhythm of the turnings could change significantly.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#23
(04-27-2020, 08:47 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: … We finally got a trigger in the virus as we were about to leave the Prophet - Nomad - Civic constellation of generations.  The question is whether the economy will be so shot as to prevent implementation of the whole blue agenda.  If the virus does cripple us economically, more or less a year of production gone, there is apt to be one heck of an awakening.

I am still not sure, if crisis wars are not the inevitable Trigger, if having a Trigger will be the norm in an age of nukes.  If not, the rhythm of the turnings could change significantly.

I'm not going to rule out large wars entirely, but I see your point. Global crises are needed to get a 4T rolling, and there aren't that many options out there. Let's agree that the next challenge will be climate --another natural phenomenon not controlled by homo sapien-sapien. I guess our progeny will have to create their own disasters.

As far as the impending 1T, that's also a bit of an enigma. Unless we dissolve into Blue America and Red America, achieving some universal direction seems unlikely.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#24
(04-28-2020, 09:40 AM)David Horn Wrote: As far as the impending 1T, that's also a bit of an enigma.  Unless we dissolve into Blue America and Red America, achieving some universal direction seems unlikely.

A likely outcome is that three extremes (neoliberals, SJWs and the alt-right) will die down, leaving behind bland, colourless leaders like Keir Starmer. The 1T might feel directionless, like a holiday break from history. Action will start during the 2T.
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#25
(04-28-2020, 09:40 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-27-2020, 08:47 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: … We finally got a trigger in the virus as we were about to leave the Prophet - Nomad - Civic constellation of generations.  The question is whether the economy will be so shot as to prevent implementation of the whole blue agenda.  If the virus does cripple us economically, more or less a year of production gone, there is apt to be one heck of an awakening.

I am still not sure, if crisis wars are not the inevitable Trigger, if having a Trigger will be the norm in an age of nukes.  If not, the rhythm of the turnings could change significantly.

I'm not going to rule out large wars entirely, but I see your point.  Global crises are needed to get a 4T rolling, and there aren't that many options out there.  Let's agree that the next challenge will be climate --another natural phenomenon not controlled by homo sapien-sapien.  I guess our progeny will have to create their own disasters.

As far as the impending 1T, that's also a bit of an enigma.  Unless we dissolve into Blue America and Red America, achieving some universal direction seems unlikely.

The 1T is generally a time when the Nomads lock down the solution to the crisis, force the rigid adherence to the solution of the problem just confronted.  Before the problem is solved, it is difficult to see how locking down the solution will take place.

I can see a lot of infrastructure building during highs.  Maybe starships and fusion generators will come this time instead of railroads or interstates?  I can see attempts at sitting on the old red culture.  The fantasies and lies that enabled us to not see the problems we allowed to sneak up on us will be hunted down and sat on with a McCarthy like attitude.

But how many problems will be addressed in the Crisis, how many will wait on the awakening is still an open question.  How much can we afford to do in the immediate economic aftermath of the crisis?  That which doesn’t come in the crisis the next wave of prophets will see and yell about in the awakening.  Global warming, the environment and population will present real enough potential disasters if nothing else rears it’s ugly head.  There are still autocratic governments clinging to power, keeping the people at bay.  A switch to fusion will at first unleash what has been global dimming.  We will get a burst of warming before the slowing of fossil fuel burning takes hold, perhaps enough to melt that arctic tundra and tip some tipping points.  That may hit or become easy to predict by the awakening.

I’m not too worried about no problems to solve left the next time around the cycles.  The prophet generation will find something to complain about.  That’s what we do.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#26
(04-28-2020, 10:13 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(04-28-2020, 09:40 AM)David Horn Wrote: As far as the impending 1T, that's also a bit of an enigma.  Unless we dissolve into Blue America and Red America, achieving some universal direction seems unlikely.

A likely outcome is that three extremes (neoliberals, SJWs and the alt-right) will die down, leaving behind bland, colourless leaders like Keir Starmer. The 1T might feel directionless, like a holiday break from history. Action will start during the 2T.

If AGW wasn't already knocking loudly on the door, I might agree -- but it is. The neoliberals won't take that seriously until it impacts them personally, and the SJWs don't think about issues like that.  So another, more science based phalange will have to emerge, be taken seriously and gain power, or AGW will become a crisis far too early.  Society needs some down time to regroup, and COVID-19 is still the crisis de jure.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#27
(04-28-2020, 11:05 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(04-28-2020, 09:40 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-27-2020, 08:47 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: … We finally got a trigger in the virus as we were about to leave the Prophet - Nomad - Civic constellation of generations.  The question is whether the economy will be so shot as to prevent implementation of the whole blue agenda.  If the virus does cripple us economically, more or less a year of production gone, there is apt to be one heck of an awakening.

I am still not sure, if crisis wars are not the inevitable Trigger, if having a Trigger will be the norm in an age of nukes.  If not, the rhythm of the turnings could change significantly.

I'm not going to rule out large wars entirely, but I see your point.  Global crises are needed to get a 4T rolling, and there aren't that many options out there.  Let's agree that the next challenge will be climate --another natural phenomenon not controlled by homo sapien-sapien.  I guess our progeny will have to create their own disasters.

As far as the impending 1T, that's also a bit of an enigma.  Unless we dissolve into Blue America and Red America, achieving some universal direction seems unlikely.

The 1T is generally a time when the Nomads lock down the solution to the crisis, force the rigid adherence to the solution of the problem just confronted.  Before the problem is solved, it is difficult to see how locking down the solution will take place.

I can see a lot of infrastructure building during highs.  Maybe starships and fusion generators will come this time instead of railroads or interstates?  I can see attempts at sitting on the old red culture.  The fantasies and lies that enabled us to not see the problems we allowed to sneak up on us will be hunted down and sat on with a McCarthy like attitude.

But how many problems will be addressed in the Crisis, how many will wait on the awakening is still an open question.  How much can we afford to do in the immediate economic aftermath of the crisis?  That which doesn’t come in the crisis the next wave of prophets will see and yell about in the awakening.  Global warming, the environment and population will present real enough potential disasters if nothing else rears it’s ugly head.  There are still autocratic governments clinging to power, keeping the people at bay.  A switch to fusion will at first unleash what has been global dimming.  We will get a burst of warming before the slowing of fossil fuel burning takes hold, perhaps enough to melt that arctic tundra and tip some tipping points.  That may hit or become easy to predict by the awakening.

I’m not too worried about no problems to solve left the next time around the cycles.  The prophet generation will find something to complain about.  That’s what we do.

All good points.  All too far in the future to affect either of us personally.  Not that we have no chance of being there at the birth of some of these, but we certainly will miss the maturing process.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#28
(04-28-2020, 11:05 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I can see a lot of infrastructure building during highs.  Maybe starships and fusion generators will come this time instead of railroads or interstates?

That would be nice.  I don't see a lot of exploration coming out of highs, though.  In fact, I doubt we'll see much space travel until at least the next unraveling - if ever.

With respect to global warming, it's now pretty clear that can and will be solved by shifting from a fossil fuel based economy to a solar based economy, which will indeed involve a lot of infrastructure building.  Right now, neither the left nor the right wants that - the left doesn't like what would be the necessary free market development, and the right is too wedded to oil interests - but the Crisis conflict will get us past those minor disagreements.  Solving global warming will turn out to be painless once people allow it to be solved.
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#29
(04-28-2020, 05:16 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-28-2020, 11:05 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I can see a lot of infrastructure building during highs.  Maybe starships and fusion generators will come this time instead of railroads or interstates?

That would be nice.  I don't see a lot of exploration coming out of highs, though.  In fact, I doubt we'll see much space travel until at least the next unraveling - if ever.

With respect to global warming, it's now pretty clear that can and will be solved by shifting from a fossil fuel based economy to a solar based economy, which will indeed involve a lot of infrastructure building.  Right now, neither the left nor the right wants that - the left doesn't like what would be the necessary free market development, and the right is too wedded to oil interests - but the Crisis conflict will get us past those minor disagreements.  Solving global warming will turn out to be painless once people allow it to be solved.

I have wondered if the oil interests have asked the various government leaders to go slow on fusion development. They would not want fusion developed until they have gotten as much profit out of fossil fuels as they can. Just speculation.

If SpaceX weren't in the mix, I might agree with you about space exploration, but Musk seems to be in a hurry.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#30
(04-28-2020, 06:15 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I have wondered if the oil interests have asked the various government leaders to go slow on fusion development.  They would not want fusion developed until they have gotten as much profit out of fossil fuels as they can.  Just speculation.

That's not the way things work.

Utility scale controlled fusion turns out to be really, really hard to do.  We can create a fusion reaction, which explodes as a hydrogen bomb.  Finding a box to keep it in and control it is vastly more difficult.  We've been working on it for decades, and it's still a long way off.  You can't magic new technology into existence, you have to develop it one small piece at a time.  We have many pieces to go.
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#31
It all depends upon the institutional change that ensues. Will we Americans have basic reforms that contradict the neoliberal economics and the tendency toward monopoly? Will we see giant firms cut down to size, perhaps through tax changes that favor smaller entities that in fact compete? Will we have labor-management policies that reverse the trend to a lord-and-serf model? Will we separate economic and political power as is necessary to keep capitalism from becoming economic fascism?

Will we make fit adjustments to the end of scarcity? Will we reduce working hours and foster liberal education that allows most people to find more meaning in life than "commute to work, do work, return from work, and plop down before mass low entertainment?"

Or will we get an order that intensifies poverty as a means of getting people more compliant due to fear? How long did an Axis victory seem the wave of the future? It was but eleven months from D-Day to the unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany. History moves fast at the end of a Crisis.

Donald Trump is an abject failure as a person, and it is hard to imagine him being an effective politician. Too much was wrong -- the lack of prior experience in political life, his vindictiveness, his cruelty, his bigotry, his recklessness, his dishonesty, his narcissism, his contempt for expertise, and his unwillingness to compromise. Put that all together and I see most traits of despots.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#32
(04-28-2020, 11:58 AM)David Horn Wrote: If AGW wasn't already knocking loudly on the door, I might agree -- but it is. The neoliberals won't take that seriously until it impacts them personally, and the SJWs don't think about issues like that.  So another, more science based phalange will have to emerge, be taken seriously and gain power, or AGW will become a crisis far too early.  Society needs some down time to regroup, and COVID-19 is still the crisis de jure.

Wait... aren't the SJWs obsessed with global warming? I already see Environmentalism replacing Inclusivity as the most important Leftist idea, Eric surely will agree.
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#33
(04-29-2020, 12:44 AM)Mickey123 Wrote:
(04-28-2020, 06:15 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I have wondered if the oil interests have asked the various government leaders to go slow on fusion development.  They would not want fusion developed until they have gotten as much profit out of fossil fuels as they can.  Just speculation.

That's not the way things work.

Utility scale controlled fusion turns out to be really, really hard to do.  We can create a fusion reaction, which explodes as a hydrogen bomb.  Finding a box to keep it in and control it is vastly more difficult.  We've been working on it for decades, and it's still a long way off.  You can't magic new technology into existence, you have to develop it one small piece at a time.  We have many pieces to go.

I've been following ITER for years.  Note: the US is a real piker on this project.  We're in, but just barely.  It's hard to say if more effort and money from us would have accelerated the process or not, but it certainly couldn't hurt.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#34
(04-29-2020, 09:23 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(04-28-2020, 11:58 AM)David Horn Wrote: If AGW wasn't already knocking loudly on the door, I might agree -- but it is. The neoliberals won't take that seriously until it impacts them personally, and the SJWs don't think about issues like that.  So another, more science based phalange will have to emerge, be taken seriously and gain power, or AGW will become a crisis far too early.  Society needs some down time to regroup, and COVID-19 is still the crisis de jure.

Wait... aren't the SJWs obsessed with global warming? I already see Environmentalism replacing Inclusivity as the most important Leftist idea, Eric surely will agree.

I don't place environmentalism in the social justice category.  It's necessary for society, of course, but it's hard to cite a social justice link.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#35
(04-29-2020, 09:56 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-29-2020, 09:23 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(04-28-2020, 11:58 AM)David Horn Wrote: If AGW wasn't already knocking loudly on the door, I might agree -- but it is. The neoliberals won't take that seriously until it impacts them personally, and the SJWs don't think about issues like that.  So another, more science based phalange will have to emerge, be taken seriously and gain power, or AGW will become a crisis far too early.  Society needs some down time to regroup, and COVID-19 is still the crisis de jure.

Wait... aren't the SJWs obsessed with global warming? I already see Environmentalism replacing Inclusivity as the most important Leftist idea, Eric surely will agree.

I don't place environmentalism in the social justice category.  It's necessary for society, of course, but it's hard to cite a social justice link.

The SJWs are still greatest climate alarmists:
https://feelthebern.org/bernie-sanders-o...te-change/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/...-emergency
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#36
(04-29-2020, 10:03 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(04-29-2020, 09:56 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-29-2020, 09:23 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(04-28-2020, 11:58 AM)David Horn Wrote: If AGW wasn't already knocking loudly on the door, I might agree -- but it is. The neoliberals won't take that seriously until it impacts them personally, and the SJWs don't think about issues like that.  So another, more science based phalange will have to emerge, be taken seriously and gain power, or AGW will become a crisis far too early.  Society needs some down time to regroup, and COVID-19 is still the crisis de jure.

Wait... aren't the SJWs obsessed with global warming? I already see Environmentalism replacing Inclusivity as the most important Leftist idea, Eric surely will agree.

I don't place environmentalism in the social justice category.  It's necessary for society, of course, but it's hard to cite a social justice link.

The SJWs are still greatest climate alarmists:
https://feelthebern.org/bernie-sanders-o...te-change/
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/...-emergency

Are they really SJWs or Progressives?  The two may seem to overlap to a large degree, but many SJWs hold attitudes that run contrary to other progressive values, like free speech and universal, rather than targeted, tolerance.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#37
(04-29-2020, 12:25 PM)David Horn Wrote: attitudes that run contrary to other progressive values, like free speech and universal, rather than targeted, tolerance.

You're really out of the loop on what progressives push for these days.
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#38
(04-29-2020, 12:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(04-29-2020, 12:25 PM)David Horn Wrote: attitudes that run contrary to other progressive values, like free speech and universal, rather than targeted, tolerance.

You're really out of the loop on what progressives push for these days.

Equating SJWs with the general concept of Progressive is a ploy used by folks on your side: if you have a problem with something, redefine it.  Sorry, but you don't get to decide what I am or what I believe. Likewise, you can't do that to others either.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#39
(04-29-2020, 12:41 PM)David Horn Wrote: Equating SJWs with the general concept of Progressive is a ploy used by folks on your side

It's the leftist mainstream media that's equating these.  That's most certainly not my side.
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#40
(04-22-2020, 03:35 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(04-22-2020, 11:26 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I expect that, during the next 1T, we will look back and decide that this 4T is its own beast; that it wasn't quite like any previous 4T.

If there is any resemblance to a prior 4T, it seems the ACW is a lot closer than any other.  The run-up to that 4T was a long and messy attempt to avoid the crisis, but it came nonetheless. We're following that part of the playbook rather closely.

Exactly right there.

The pandemic I see as just one symptom of the larger crisis facing us, which is the environmental crisis first of all, and the power of the elite oligarchy which is largely responsible for it, as well as for its own unfair privileges; a power buttressed by the support they now have from rural states still favored in the constitution.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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