The Crisis That Never Ended

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-28-2020, 04:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: These posts have me harking back to the Awakening times, as I so often like to do. Grounds for a new thread!

Go ahead and try.  It wouldn't surprise me if the younger generations who were not there try to give their made up impressions of what really happened.  

What could someone who was there tell them?  What we have here...  

[Eric the Green]

(03-28-2020, 04:11 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-28-2020, 04:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: These posts have me harking back to the Awakening times, as I so often like to do. Grounds for a new thread!

Go ahead and try.  It wouldn't surprise me if the younger generations who were not there try to give their made up impressions of what really happened.  

What could someone who was there tell them?  What we have here...  

Here tis again:
http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid50881

[Blazkovitz]

(03-26-2020, 01:08 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Myself, I think the 21st century didn't really begin. With luck, it's beginning now.

Millennials strongly identify with the term, so for the future quintessential "21st century" will be the era of peak millennial influence, probably 2030s-2040s. But culturally I think we're living in the 21st century since 2006, when social media use became widespread. In the 2050s romantic neo-Missionaries will probably style themselves as "rebels against the 21st century".

BTW, how to recognize the 1T when it finally arrives?

[Bob Butler 54]

(03-29-2020, 05:24 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: BTW, how to recognize the 1T when it finally arrives?

There are markers fairly well defined for when the Crisis ends.  I would expect a vaccine or effective treatment or something to come out to kill the perceived Coronavirus threat.  I expect a few big treaties to close the barn door after the horses have left on strengthening the World Health Organization and the global warming response.

Shortly after that you might get subtle signs of a mood shift.  There will be no more immediate threats.  There will be an intolerance for the anti science ideological false realities that Fox News and the Republicans have been using to perpetuate their lies.  When those things come, you would be in the High.

[David Horn]

(03-28-2020, 02:31 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-28-2020, 02:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If Donald Trump has ever had any advantage from the stars and planets, then he may have thrown it away.

Well, I'm not so sure. Perhaps, but if 47% still approve of his job performance, as polls now show, he will not be easy for a sometimes-incoherent establishment Democrat to beat.

There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

[David Horn]

(03-28-2020, 02:50 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-26-2020, 12:29 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(03-25-2020, 08:24 PM)TheNomad Wrote: But my point being, I find it amazing some are saying "The Crisis" as if it happened last week.  For some, there was no Crisis, for others, there was, for some, The Crisis they have been living for a LONG time.

I'm coming around to the idea that the crisis period started in 2008.  I think there's a difference between the crisis period, a two decade turning, and the actual crisis, which is usually a war that lasts about half a decade - the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, World War Two.

I'm not sure the actual crisis can be something other than a war.  I'm also skeptical about Covid-19 being the actual crisis, as I don't see how it can last for 5 years.  It might last for 1 year, but I don't think that's long enough for people to forget their political differences - that is, for a true regeneracy.

In addition, I think a crisis requires substantial destruction among the economic and political elites.  I'm not seeing how the Covid-19 crisis destroys Google or Facebook or Microsoft.

I agree with your points there.

Then again, WW-II made GM, Ford and Chrysler bigger, and created an aviation industry from a bunch of also-rans. The only restraint on the big boys were the labor unions.

Nothing follows suit exactly.  I don't see most of the tech industry getting squashed, but it's almost a given that they will be regulated heavily.

[David Horn]

(03-29-2020, 06:31 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 05:24 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: BTW, how to recognize the 1T when it finally arrives?

There are markers fairly well defined for when the Crisis ends.  I would expect a vaccine or effective treatment or something to come out to kill the perceived Coronavirus threat.  I expect a few big treaties to close the barn door after the horses have left on strengthening the World Health Organization and the global warming response.

Shortly after that you might get subtle signs of a mood shift.  There will be no more immediate threats.  There will be an intolerance for the anti science ideological false realities that Fox News and the Republicans have been using to perpetuate their lies.  When those things come, you would be in the High.

Until the AGW issue is addressed in some way, the 1T can't really take hold.  The same can be said for inequality.  So there needs to be a sea change, and I'm not expecting one, frankly.

[Eric the Green]

(03-29-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-28-2020, 02:31 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-28-2020, 02:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If Donald Trump has ever had any advantage from the stars and planets, then he may have thrown it away.

Well, I'm not so sure. Perhaps, but if 47% still approve of his job performance, as polls now show, he will not be easy for a sometimes-incoherent establishment Democrat to beat.

There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!) (dementia I think it is)

[Eric the Green]

(03-29-2020, 03:31 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 06:31 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 05:24 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: BTW, how to recognize the 1T when it finally arrives?

There are markers fairly well defined for when the Crisis ends.  I would expect a vaccine or effective treatment or something to come out to kill the perceived Coronavirus threat.  I expect a few big treaties to close the barn door after the horses have left on strengthening the World Health Organization and the global warming response.

Shortly after that you might get subtle signs of a mood shift.  There will be no more immediate threats.  There will be an intolerance for the anti science ideological false realities that Fox News and the Republicans have been using to perpetuate their lies.  When those things come, you would be in the High.

Until the AGW issue is addressed in some way, the 1T can't really take hold.  The same can be said for inequality.  So there needs to be a sea change, and I'm not expecting one, frankly.

It's wise to lower expectations, but remember that I predict progress for the 2020s. That means the issues would be addressed, if not entirely solved. Climate change action this decade will only bring major results decades later.

[Bob Butler 54]

I do remember one thing S&H noted a long time ago. The Crisis tends do do more in the way of change that anyone anticipates going in. That prediction stood up to a double check against history. As a result, I make larger anticipations of change than most.

[gabrielle]

(03-29-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!)

And then, you know, there is the other guy that's still in the race, the one who for the past few weeks has diverted funds from his campaign to various charities to aid with pandemic relief, the one whose Neo-New Deal policies would do the most to get us through this crisis and start the regeneracy...

[Eric the Green]

(03-29-2020, 10:38 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!)

And then, you know, there is the other guy that's still in the race, the one who for the past few weeks has diverted funds from his campaign to various charities to aid with pandemic relief, the one whose Neo-New Deal policies would do the most to get us through this crisis and start the regeneracy...

Myself, I registered Democratic so I could vote for that other guy, and I did. Now though, Biden is whom we got, and I'm glad that despite a bad performance in an MSN interview recently, he was coherent and clear on Meet the Press yesterday speaking about the virus and stuff. So, as long as he can do that, I'm sure he'll be the nominee. I don't know if he will win. He still has a small lead over the virus in the White House.

[David Horn]

(03-29-2020, 10:38 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!)

And then, you know, there is the other guy that's still in the race, the one who for the past few weeks has diverted funds from his campaign to various charities to aid with pandemic relief, the one whose Neo-New Deal policies would do the most to get us through this crisis and start the regeneracy...

If Bernie was a favorite of the party, they would forgive him for staying in at this point. He's not; they won't.  At this point, he's rowing against the Democratic tide, and that may make the election one for Trump to lose.  If that happens, all his good work goes in the toilet.

He lost (fairly or otherwise).  It's time to do the Kumbaya thing, and look like he's on the team whether he is or not.

[David Horn]

(03-30-2020, 07:00 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 10:38 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!)

And then, you know, there is the other guy that's still in the race, the one who for the past few weeks has diverted funds from his campaign to various charities to aid with pandemic relief, the one whose Neo-New Deal policies would do the most to get us through this crisis and start the regeneracy...

Myself, I registered Democratic so I could vote for that other guy, and I did. Now though, Biden is whom we got, and I'm glad that despite a bad performance in an MSN interview recently, he was coherent and clear on Meet the Press yesterday speaking about the virus and stuff. So, as long as he can do that, I'm sure he'll be the nominee. I don't know if he will win. He still has a small lead over the virus in the White House.

Here's how I see the options:

1. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he wins.  We have a quiet "return to normalcy" that satisfies no one, and the left and center battle it out again in 2024
   
2. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he loses. Biden will be the last centrist this cycle
   
3. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party, but Biden wins.  The Bernie Bros will never be taken seriously again, and the left will be a long time regrouping.
   
4. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party and Biden loses. The Democrats will come apart at the seams, unless Bernie does a huge mea culpa -- a highly unlikely event.
   

Pick your poison.  In order of preference, Ill go for 1, 3, 2, 4.  I might chose differently if the circumstances were different, but we can't have Trump for 8.

[gabrielle]

(03-30-2020, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 07:00 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 10:38 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!)

And then, you know, there is the other guy that's still in the race, the one who for the past few weeks has diverted funds from his campaign to various charities to aid with pandemic relief, the one whose Neo-New Deal policies would do the most to get us through this crisis and start the regeneracy...

Myself, I registered Democratic so I could vote for that other guy, and I did. Now though, Biden is whom we got, and I'm glad that despite a bad performance in an MSN interview recently, he was coherent and clear on Meet the Press yesterday speaking about the virus and stuff. So, as long as he can do that, I'm sure he'll be the nominee. I don't know if he will win. He still has a small lead over the virus in the White House.

Here's how I see the options:

1. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he wins.  We have a quiet "return to normalcy" that satisfies no one, and the left and center battle it out again in 2024
   
2. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he loses. Biden will be the last centrist this cycle
   
3. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party, but Biden wins.  The Bernie Bros will never be taken seriously again, and the left will be a long time regrouping.
   
4. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party and Biden loses. The Democrats will come apart at the seams, unless Bernie does a huge mea culpa -- a highly unlikely event.
   

Pick your poison.  In order of preference, Ill go for 1, 3, 2, 4.  I might chose differently if the circumstances were different, but we can't have Trump for 8.

I'm not sure there is any "return to normalcy" after this.  Covid 19 has caused the bottom to drop out from underneath us.  Many in this country don't seem to realize how dire things really are, we are like cartoon characters briefly suspended in air before we fall.  The only thing that might save us would be drastic measures such as what Sanders proposes (and Biden continues to waffle about), and I'm not even sure if that will be enough.  I hope I'm wrong.  Please God let me be wrong.

[David Horn]

(03-30-2020, 03:12 PM)gabrielle Wrote: I'm not sure there is any "return to normalcy" after this.  Covid 19 has caused the bottom to drop out from underneath us.  Many in this country don't seem to realize how dire things really are, we are like cartoon characters briefly suspended in air before we fall.  The only thing that might save us would be drastic measures such as what Sanders proposes (and Biden continues to waffle about), and I'm not even sure if that will be enough.  I hope I'm wrong.  Please God let me be wrong.

From a health perspective, this is no worse than the Spanish Flu in 1918. What's worse is the failure of leadership to follow the lessons of the past, and to hold the miscreants responsible for doing, well, nothing much. Trump may parlay this to a second term! That's simply astounding, except for the milquetoast response from the Dems.

If Bernie had a shot at the nomination (and that's dead-dead-dead), then taking a principled stand is exactly the right thing for him to do. He doesn't. Biden can't or won't step up, and Cuomo, who is, can't be the voice for the party. For some reason, the Dems are just flaccid all around -- and I include Nancy Pelosi on that list. It's Silent generation behavior -- as wrong for a 4T as you can get. Disgusting.

[gabrielle]

(03-30-2020, 04:57 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 03:12 PM)gabrielle Wrote: I'm not sure there is any "return to normalcy" after this.  Covid 19 has caused the bottom to drop out from underneath us.  Many in this country don't seem to realize how dire things really are, we are like cartoon characters briefly suspended in air before we fall.  The only thing that might save us would be drastic measures such as what Sanders proposes (and Biden continues to waffle about), and I'm not even sure if that will be enough.  I hope I'm wrong.  Please God let me be wrong.

From a health perspective, this is no worse than the Spanish Flu in 1918.  What's worse is the failure of leadership to follow the lessons of the past, and to hold the miscreants responsible for doing, well, nothing much.  Trump may parlay this to a second term!  That's simply astounding, except for the milquetoast response from the Dems.  

If Bernie had a shot at the nomination (and that's dead-dead-dead), then taking a principled stand is exactly the right thing for him to do.  He doesn't.  Biden can't or won't step up, and Cuomo, who is, can't be the voice for the party. For some reason, the Dems are just flaccid all around -- and I include Nancy Pelosi on that list.  It's Silent generation behavior -- as wrong for a 4T as you can get.  Disgusting.

It's not merely taking a principled stand at this point, it's trying to save the country.  Trying to save lives.  3.3 million people filed unemployment last week.  Many of them are also losing their health insurance at a critical time.  And Biden has just announced that the pandemic crisis has not changed his mind about single payer.  This is not going to work.  And that will become increasingly obvious in the next few weeks.

Why is it that the Siilents, old and increasingly feeble as they are, are still in prominent positions of power?  Why haven't the younger generations stepped up to the plate (in a meaningful way--not the mad king and his circle of sycophants).

[beechnut79]

(03-30-2020, 03:12 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 07:00 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 10:38 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!)

And then, you know, there is the other guy that's still in the race, the one who for the past few weeks has diverted funds from his campaign to various charities to aid with pandemic relief, the one whose Neo-New Deal policies would do the most to get us through this crisis and start the regeneracy...

Myself, I registered Democratic so I could vote for that other guy, and I did. Now though, Biden is whom we got, and I'm glad that despite a bad performance in an MSN interview recently, he was coherent and clear on Meet the Press yesterday speaking about the virus and stuff. So, as long as he can do that, I'm sure he'll be the nominee. I don't know if he will win. He still has a small lead over the virus in the White House.

Here's how I see the options:

1. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he wins.  We have a quiet "return to normalcy" that satisfies no one, and the left and center battle it out again in 2024
   
2. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he loses. Biden will be the last centrist this cycle
   
3. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party, but Biden wins.  The Bernie Bros will never be taken seriously again, and the left will be a long time regrouping.
   
4. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party and Biden loses. The Democrats will come apart at the seams, unless Bernie does a huge mea culpa -- a highly unlikely event.
   

Pick your poison.  In order of preference, Ill go for 1, 3, 2, 4.  I might chose differently if the circumstances were different, but we can't have Trump for 8.

I'm not sure there is any "return to normalcy" after this.  Covid 19 has caused the bottom to drop out from underneath us.  Many in this country don't seem to realize how dire things really are, we are like cartoon characters briefly suspended in air before we fall.  The only thing that might save us would be drastic measures such as what Sanders proposes (and Biden continues to waffle about), and I'm not even sure if that will be enough.  I hope I'm wrong.  Please God let me be wrong.

I would think that all the stay at home and shelter in places would qualify as drastic measures. It is now thought that these measures might have to be in place for approximately five weeks. Will be interesting to see what the aftermath holds. Will there be a gold rush by many folks overeager to make up for lost time at that point, which would coincide with the beginning of the warm weather season?

[beechnut79]

(03-30-2020, 04:57 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 03:12 PM)gabrielle Wrote: I'm not sure there is any "return to normalcy" after this.  Covid 19 has caused the bottom to drop out from underneath us.  Many in this country don't seem to realize how dire things really are, we are like cartoon characters briefly suspended in air before we fall.  The only thing that might save us would be drastic measures such as what Sanders proposes (and Biden continues to waffle about), and I'm not even sure if that will be enough.  I hope I'm wrong.  Please God let me be wrong.

From a health perspective, this is no worse than the Spanish Flu in 1918.  What's worse is the failure of leadership to follow the lessons of the past, and to hold the miscreants responsible for doing, well, nothing much.  Trump may parlay this to a second term!  That's simply astounding, except for the milquetoast response from the Dems.  

If Bernie had a shot at the nomination (and that's dead-dead-dead), then taking a principled stand is exactly the right thing for him to do.  He doesn't.  Biden can't or won't step up, and Cuomo, who is, can't be the voice for the party. For some reason, the Dems are just flaccid all around -- and I include Nancy Pelosi on that list.  It's Silent generation behavior -- as wrong for a 4T as you can get.  Disgusting.

Per P1, that is because there is virtually no one alive who remembers the carnage of that time. This is an example of the old adage that he who doesn’t recall history is doomed to repeat it comes in.

[Eric the Green]

(03-30-2020, 12:56 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-30-2020, 07:00 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 10:38 PM)gabrielle Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 04:16 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(03-29-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: There is a nascent Draft Cuomo movement.  I doubt it's more than talk, but who knows?

As far as policy is concerned, Cuomo would probably be less progressive than Biden. His horoscope score is a little lower, but he has no incipient senility (or what's the better word? I can't find it even on google!)

And then, you know, there is the other guy that's still in the race, the one who for the past few weeks has diverted funds from his campaign to various charities to aid with pandemic relief, the one whose Neo-New Deal policies would do the most to get us through this crisis and start the regeneracy...

Myself, I registered Democratic so I could vote for that other guy, and I did. Now though, Biden is whom we got, and I'm glad that despite a bad performance in an MSN interview recently, he was coherent and clear on Meet the Press yesterday speaking about the virus and stuff. So, as long as he can do that, I'm sure he'll be the nominee. I don't know if he will win. He still has a small lead over the virus in the White House.

Here's how I see the options:

1. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he wins.  We have a quiet "return to normalcy" that satisfies no one, and the left and center battle it out again in 2024
   
2. All the Dems, including Bernie and his followers, unite behind Biden and he loses. Biden will be the last centrist this cycle
   
3. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party, but Biden wins.  The Bernie Bros will never be taken seriously again, and the left will be a long time regrouping.
   
4. Dissension reigns in the Democratic Party and Biden loses. The Democrats will come apart at the seams, unless Bernie does a huge mea culpa -- a highly unlikely event.
   

Pick your poison.  In order of preference, Ill go for 1, 3, 2, 4.  I might chose differently if the circumstances were different, but we can't have Trump for 8.

I don't think those options are very likely, or desirable. Fun to discuss though. Regarding them:

#1 is closest to likely, I guess. But as gabrielle said, I don't think a return to normalcy is possible now. The 4T continues and so do its crises and turmoil. The left will pressure Biden to act, if he's elected. He has bent a bit to Bernie's challenge, which may or may not be a good sign. But if Bernie's Revolution keeps the pressure up on him, he may bend some more. I think the left and center will battle it out for the foreseeable future, no matter who wins. But how it shapes up depends entirely on how good the candidates are, as candidates. And also on "whose turn it is."

#2. Sadly, when Democratic centrists lose, centrists can still be around and do well.

#3 is not true because of what I said in #1. The problems remain and arouse activism. The Left don't need to regroup, they are already well organized. I don't see a better left wing candidate than Bernie, unless you see Sherrod Brown as left wing.

#4 I doubt Bernie has anything to mea culpa about. If Biden loses, Trump will begin to abuse his power even more and lose popularity, and may be impeached and even removed. In this situation, the Democrats will not come apart but will unite and win in 2024, after a big midterm victory in 2022. The candidate in 2024 will be closer to the center than Bernie, because that's who is out there who has any chance according to the horoscope scores. AOC for example will never even get close.

A breakup of the major parties is possible, but the Democrats, even though they have a left wing that splits off, will not come apart as long as the Republicans do not come apart.