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I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
#61
(06-16-2020, 03:46 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Come the 1T we may conclude that this 4T was non-standard/atypical, but a 4T nevertheless.

I'm not sure why anyone would say this 4T is atypical?


We had one of American history's largest economic downturns in 2008

We had America's first black president in 2008 (Obama was not a descendant of American slaves, but it is still pretty amazing and noteworthy)

We had the election of Donald Trump in 2016

Covid19 in 2020 along with what looks like the worse unemployment since the Great Depression, and this thing isn't over by a mile

Not to mention mass protests, and riots, and mass hysteria. All during a global pandemic.

India and China are on wartime footing. The US and China are fighting a tariff war and a war over the future of telecom. 

I just don't see how this is atypical?
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#62
Whenever the hell it started, we sure are in it now, and it has all the makings of "putting all the cards on the table," as the theory suggests is probable.
[fon‌t=Arial Black]... a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition.[/font]
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#63
(06-17-2020, 03:50 PM)TnT Wrote: Whenever the hell it started, we sure are in it now, and it has all the makings of "putting all the cards on the table," as the theory suggests is probable.

Having Trump in the Presidency has raised the bar, so yes, it looks serious and it's not budging.  Let's hope the kids carry this through to a good conclusion. It won't matter all that much to us personally, but we have others to consider.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#64
The two previous Crisis Eras (Civil War and Great Depression/WWII) had big economic meltdowns (Panic of 1857, Great Stock Market Crash of 1929) that destroyed the complacency of the end phase of the preceding Third Turnings. The financial meltdown of 2008 was similarly inevitable, coming at the end of a speculative boom that coincided with maximal inequality and severe corruption. After a year and a half of economic decline, the economic meltdown beginning in 2007 (2007 was the real peak, as was 1929; 2008 and 1930 had the real crashes) securities prices had fallen about as much  -- in the 50-55% range. So America got out of the 2007-2009 meltdown after a year and a half instead of after three years after the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929? Such is the difference between Herbert Hoover and Barack Obama.... and Obama and about everyone knowing how to prevent a repetition of the latter half of a 1929-1932 meltdown. Obama and Democratic majorities in the House and Senate backed the banks to prevent the destructive bank runs that bedeviled the American economy in the latter half of 1931 and throughout 1932.

Problem solved? No. Right-wing economic interests that recovered used part of their profits in an effort to re-create America as a pure plutocracy, the sort in which 2% live in opulent splendor as if sultans in countries in which a ruling family owns the oil resources and 95% suffer for those 2%. They backed a pseudo-populist Tea Party that concurred with the ideas that reason, morality, observation, and feeling were untrustworthy for the common man but rigid doctrine imposed from On High (basically God as CEO) is the sole measure of truth. No human suffering can ever be in excess so long as the worthiest people in the nation get what they want. Extreme narcissism, and Boomer economic and administrative elites never had any economic reality, ethical principle, or learning get in the way of this, allows people to live without awareness of any limits to their greed and lust. If you think that I have Donald Trump as the prime illustration -- you are precisely right.

Right-wing operatives steadily eroded all traces of liberalism at the national level until by 2017 the United States was fully under the grip of mirror-image Marxists, people who accept that capitalism is an inhuman monstrosity to any but the economic elites and to people who fare well no matter what the social system (such as senior military officers, chiefs of police, physicians, judges, attorneys, and some creative people) and brutal to everyone else. They differ with Marxists only in endorsing such a reality.

We have a President typical of the sort of leader in charge at the time in which a proletarian insurgency starts.... and plenty of collaborators. That marks a Crisis.

OK, American elites tried to return to the 3T that got America into the mess that it was in in 2008, only without quite the same level of institutional corruption. Or did Obama get in the way of a similar level of economic corruption -- sub-prime mortgages made available on property of rising value that the lender could foreclose upon profitably when the borrower failed because he could never meet the balloon payment following negative amortization?  

OK, Obama wasn't exactly the sort of leader that you want in office if you want corruption in high places. But Trump is.

OK... Fourth Turnings are rough times. Unless we are to discuss some year that had strictly personal tragedies (let us say that you  had some freakish tragedy, 2020 is almost certainly the worst year of your life. Unless you survived something like the Killing Fields of Cambodia or the Rwanda genocide, 2020 is the most hideous year of your existence. Much that you took for granted before this year has become unavailable... and in my case I do not trust any form of shared transportation or dining out inside any restaurant. If I do take a trip then it will be by car, and I will pack some picnic lunches  if I don;t want to rely upon fast food. I expect economic hardship to persist throughout this year. Big consumer purchases? Only as an emergency.

Some people are treating COVID-19 as a hoax or triviality. May they be personally, if not statistically right -- like the smoker who somehow doesn't experiences the shortened lifespan from a horrid habit. 5% chance of death for contracting the disease? I do not drive drunk; I do not use street drugs; I do not do high-risk sex with strangers; I don't provoke dogs or jump into pig sties. Were I not 4T... even combat made more sense than any of those. From what I understand, combat on behalf of the US Armed Forces since the Civil War has had less than a 5% chance of death for a soldier, which is about the death rate among people who are known to contract COVID-19.

If you thought the Vietcong and North Vietnamese Army were dangerous...  

[Image: 120px-SARS-CoV-2_without_background.png]

This little virus is even more dangerous. I expect it to get recognition as the equivalent of Time Magazine's "Man of the Year"

Go ahead. Hate that virus. I certainly do!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#65
I can guarantee that 2020 is the worst year of my life. On top of everything else, I lost my Mom in January from a long cumulative illness. So yup, definitely the worst year ever.

Regarding the topic, I think I am going to stick with 2008. This crisis is a Culture War/Cold Civil War. 2008 was not only the Economic meltdown, it was also the election of Obama. The Obama election made team Blue ecstatic. But it was an existential threat to team Red, who not only saw it as a policy threat, but the harbinger of their demographic fall from power. They've been fighting back tooth and nail ever since.

Much about the years 2008- 2016 seem relatively mild, but there were two extremely reactive elections during that time ('10 & '14) with the "Tea Party" swamping the sleeping Team Blue who only barely woke up for Obama's re-election in '12. It true that for most of that time our individual lives were pretty much business as usual, so maybe those years can be called "Phony 3rd".
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#66
(06-18-2020, 07:28 AM)LPDec63 Wrote: I can guarantee that 2020 is the worst year of my life.  On top of everything else, I lost my Mom in January from a long cumulative illness.  So yup, definitely the worst year ever.  

Regarding the topic, I think I am going to stick with 2008.  This crisis is a Culture War/Cold Civil War.  2008 was not only the Economic meltdown, it was also the election of Obama.  The Obama election made team Blue ecstatic.  But it was an existential threat to team Red, who not only saw it as a policy threat, but the harbinger of their demographic fall from power.  They've been fighting back tooth and nail ever since.

Much about the years 2008- 2016 seem relatively mild, but there were two extremely reactive elections during that time ('10 & '14) with the "Tea Party" swamping the sleeping Team Blue who only barely woke up for Obama's re-election in '12.  It true that for most of that time our individual lives were pretty much business as usual, so maybe those years can be called "Phony 3rd".

If you are in the camp that believes the ACW fell well within that 4T and the start was Bleeding Kansas (and a few other related issues a bit less dramatic), then 2008 is fully rational as the beginning of this 4T.  Yes, we're in the midst of a multi-dimensional crisis, but we didn't arrive here by accident, as you noted.  It's also obvious that the damage done will not be repaired by a single election.  Societal change is a must -- right in line with 4T expectations.

For a long time, I was concerned about a failed 4T -- literally one that failed to launch.  We still can do the wrong things, but this is a full-blown 4T.  This is our shot, or yours anyway.  I'll be over in the cheap seats, cheering you on.  By the time the 1T arrives I'll be in my late '70s or early 80s, so that's your 1T.  I already had mine.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#67
(06-15-2020, 12:23 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-14-2020, 06:33 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-06-2020, 12:18 PM)Ghost Wrote:
(06-06-2020, 12:14 PM)Isoko Wrote: Ghost,

These feel more like 3T events. They occurred, they offered minimal change in terms of people's lives and disappeared as quickly as they came. I'm talking about big changes here that lead to a big climax and quite frankly 2008 onwards feels like one big 3T.

But wouldn't that be a huge 3T (1980-2020)?

That would create a 91-year saeculum instead of the usual 80-88 year saeculua proposed by Strauss and Howe.

The average length of the saeculum is 92 years.

You are ignoring the 15 turnings before 1773 (average  saeculum length 104 years) and focusing entirely on the 12 turnings after 1773 (average length 78 years).

There's also the issue of the first major culture delta in the history of civilized man, when the Industrial Age emerged after 12 millennia of the Agricultural Age.  It's simply too important to ignore, and the post-AgAge is too brief a period (roughly three saecula) to be significant in any statistical sense.  So we're at a bit of a disadvantage from that perspective.  On the other hand, we're free to assume that the two are tightly linked or not.  I'm certainly in the loose-link camp.   It seems you're in the former. Since no one alive today will be around to see how this plays-out in the next 4 or 5 saecula, we should all be a bit more circumspect about dating turnings, until it's a bit more obvious. That said, your offered dates:
  • 1t 1946-1968 - 24 yrs
  • 2t 1968-1992 - 24 yrs
  • 3t 1992-2014 - 22 yrs
  • 4t 2014-????
are still possible.  But why 2014?

It's just a place holder. The other dates serve to stretch out the turnings to accommodate what is looking like a longer saeculum than what I anticipated in 2000.

What makes me question 4T start dates of 2008 or 2001 is the lack of structural change to our nation at this point. We are still the same basic country we were in 1984.  Only one of the previous six 4Ts was as anodyne as this one, the Armada 4T. 

In 20 years at T4T in is various guises, I have never seen people draw comparisons between this 4T and the Armada 4T or discuss the latter at all for that matter.  It's so forgettable of a secular crisis. So much so as I am not sure it was a crisis at all.  It seems over shadowed by the mid-Tudor crisis before it and the English Civil War after it.
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#68
(06-17-2020, 03:50 PM)TnT Wrote: Whenever the hell it started, we sure are in it now, and it has all the makings of "putting all the cards on the table," as the theory suggests is probable.

I agree. But it makes a huge difference whether this early in the 4T (meaning there is still time for change to occur) or we are late in the 4T in which the "change" was a collective decision to NOT change and go gently into that good night as a nation.
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#69
(06-18-2020, 01:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-17-2020, 03:50 PM)TnT Wrote: Whenever the hell it started, we sure are in it now, and it has all the makings of "putting all the cards on the table," as the theory suggests is probable.

I agree. But it makes a huge difference whether this early in the 4T (meaning there is still time for change to occur) or we are late in the 4T in which the "change" was a collective decision to NOT change and go gently into that good night as a nation.

We are in the middle of the 4T, so neither applies. A decision to "change" was obviously made in 2008, and Obama said "change has come to America."

And it did. But since our 4T is not one in which the country is uniting, but one in which we must fight it out between ourselves, the fight commenced. The nation is divided, and that's the crisis. One side holds on to the late-Awakening counter-revolution led by Ronald Reagan (Classic Xer and Warren Dew here, for example, and the Tea Party and Trumpists), and the other side seeks to continue the Revolution begun in the early Awakening (a few of us blue boomers here, for example, and candidates like Warren, Sanders and even Biden). We have a decade yet in which change will occur, and it must. The nation must act or fade away; the choice will be made (and already IS being made) in the 2020s.

The movements of the sixties are rising again in the USA and worldwide. And tolerance for inaction on this national agenda is weakening. Demographics are slowly giving an advantage to the blue team, and the red team's abominable choices of leadership is wearing thin. Resistance to this agenda continues, however, among the slowly-fading but still-fanatical red team. 

The movement for gun control that started with the shooting of RFK rises again with every big gun massacre, and the clarion call for action was sounded after the Parkland school shooting, even as the USA's national gun obsession continues. Black Lives Matter continues the black power agenda of the Awakening, and momentum is on their side now. But racism is hard to extinguish, and police are justifiably respected, so real action will depend on the elections, as everything does. The climate crisis is even worse than predicted, and its effects will not stop, and thus the climate strike will continue and grow while the deniers are dug in. The battle over health care reform continues, exacerbated by the pandemics that continue because there's no national leadership. The advocates of the counter-revolutionary Reaganomics are hooked on the wealth and power it promises or provides them, while younger and more diverse populations suffer in the resulting inequality and become ever more socialistic and supportive of the old Awakening McGovern proposals. Wars will threaten, and the battle over the MIC and US intervention can happen again. "The line it is drawn, the curse it is cast. The battle outside raging will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls, and the first one now will later be last, for the times they are a'changin.' "
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#70
(06-18-2020, 01:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-17-2020, 03:50 PM)TnT Wrote: Whenever the hell it started, we sure are in it now, and it has all the makings of "putting all the cards on the table," as the theory suggests is probable.

I agree. But it makes a huge difference whether this early in the 4T (meaning there is still time for change to occur) or we are late in the 4T in which the "change" was a collective decision to NOT change and go gently into that good night as a nation.

I don't see any reason the pace of change needs to be tied to a schedule of any kind.  The arrival of an anticipated though unpredictable pandemic is a case in point.  By it's very nature, it sets the pace, but could just as easily have arrived 10 years ago or 10 years from now.  The same could have been true of a climate catastrophe, but wasn't this time.  The other crises are certainly human caused, but the economic stressors are tied to the pandemic, so even there the pace is set by nature.

Until this confluence occurred, I was expecting a do-nothing 4T. I'm not expecting that now.  As far as when the beginning trigger can be set, that's still arguable.  I think we all agree that, barring the election of Barack Obama, a Donald Trump Presidency was a fantasy. Is that a legitimate argument for 2008?  Perhaps.  It will be a while before this all settles out, and how that happens will be the most instructive on how and why it started.  We can collectively choose chaos or a new order, but that choice is still in the future.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#71
PDec63 mentioned an interesting concept-a "Phony 3rd". I think this would be consistent with Eric's concept of an Indian Autumn.

I suspect that The Armada Crisis was an actual 4T, if perhaps barely. Because the Spanish Armada is still remembered.
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#72
I also see this as a culmination of the totality of the last saeculum.

Civil Rights. Awakening things like astrology and witches. Culture wars. Etc

The "left" is currently proving to be just as insane as the tea party.

I think that the great awokening will (hopefully) burn out just like the tea party did, and in a few years well have some significant, systemic change and a more just society.
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#73
(06-19-2020, 12:52 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: PDec63 mentioned an interesting concept-a "Phony 3rd".  I think this would be consistent with Eric's concept of an Indian Autumn.

I missed this, but the 3T was unusual only in that it didn't include a crisis war as the obvious resolution. In the Information Age, where nukes and insurrection make a crisis war trigger very rare, this may be the expected result.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#74
(06-20-2020, 12:57 PM)User3451 Wrote: I also see this as a culmination of the totality of the last saeculum.

Civil Rights. Awakening things like astrology and witches. Culture wars. Etc

The "left" is currently proving to be just as insane as the tea party.

I think that the great awokening  will (hopefully) burn out just like the tea party did, and in a few years well have some significant, systemic change and a more just society.

I too could do without astrology, witches and culture wars. However, I have rights as one of the primary elements of the arrow of progress - along with democracy and equality. I think the Great Awokening is pushing for all three things, and as such it could result in a “significant, systematic change and a more just society.”

It may just be what the people are demanding rather than what you want personally. As such, I do not see the blue agenda as particularly insane.

I also think the Tea Party was in some ways a good thing. The Republican base was sick of the elite influence and sought any alternative to the Republican establishment. This unfortunately led to Trump. The only other national face of the Tea Party was Palin, who is also problematic. You have real trouble finding a Tea Party these days that has not been eaten by the cult of Trump. That certainly does not lead to a “significant, systematic change and a more just society.”
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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#75
(06-20-2020, 12:57 PM)User3451 Wrote: I also see this as a culmination of the totality of the last saeculum.

Civil Rights. Awakening things like astrology and witches. Culture wars. Etc

The "left" is currently proving to be just as insane as the tea party.

I think that the great awokening  will (hopefully) burn out just like the tea party did, and in a few years well have some significant, systemic change and a more just society.

The crisis is culminating the saeculum. The issues on the national agenda remain those from the Awakening, which arose from conditions during the first turning. They have not been dealt with during the third turning, as is usual. As usual for an internal-directed saeculum, in the 4th turning the resistance from reactionaries in the cold civil war has continued to block the agenda to a great degree, despite some progress. During the second half of the 4T, this seaculum's agenda (at least in its institutional and political aspects) needs to be addressed in full, even if not fully resolved. This agenda includes but is not limited to: displacing systemic racism and other discrimination, reversing climate change and pollution, dismantling Reaganomics and other left-over laissez-faire approaches which cause inequality and lack of mobility and inhibit action on all issues, restore full democracy and voting rights in all respects, control guns and gun violence, advance health care for all, and supporting peace rather than imperial wars and militarism.

The cultural awakening of the 2T remains on the agenda too, including "astrology and witches" and the counter-culture, and in general an awakening of spirituality in which spirit is immanent as well as transcendent, as well as a re-awakening of more-traditional transcendent religion. The culture wars largely result from the conflict between the emergent counterculture allied with the liberal agenda, vs. the traditional religious ones allied with resistance to the political agenda, as well as a conflict between those two and the normal exaggerated materialism, scientism and physicalism prevalent in the USA in non-awakening turnings. Given the decline of the counter-culture and its new "consciousness revolution" awakening in the current 4th turning (including "astrology and witches" but not limited to those), it will revive again in the next 2T.

Meanwhile, it remains for the USA to discover that to be truly healthy and creative, the new spiritual culture of the recurring "immanent as well as transcendent" Awakenings must continue and grow, rather than decline, during ALL turnings (including "astrology and witches," but a whole lot more than that). Materialism alone can never be a basis for civilization in the long run. We need to revive our awareness of spirit, rather than see ourselves as merely the effect of mechanical causes, or interested merely in material advancement and economic prosperity alone. Otherwise our inspiration, our connection with divine knowledge and power, and our creative energy fades away. At the same time, I see the need for continued respect for science and its methods for inquiry into questions for which it is best suited, and too much fantasy and irrationalism may lead (and have led us) into too much conspiracy theory and other fantasy thinking. The proper balance is needed.

The Left today is nowhere near as insane as the tea party of the 2010s, and in fact it could never be just by definition. I see little source of needed changes from right-wing movements today, even if it feeds on some genuine concerns. The Left today is strong, but no doubt there are elements in it that are too fanatic and who arouse divisions on the left side of the aisle, whether they are from either the moderate or liberal/left wings. The Left today is putting forth the right issues and solutions. But it needs to pull together more, and to reinforce the alliance among its wings and its issues in order to gain the victory, which is essential for our continued progress through the turnings and our continued existence as a republic. In 4Ts, the existence of the nation is at stake. It's time to rescue and transform it this decade. The United States must have a new birth of freedom so that government of the people, by the people and for the people does not perish.

The great awokening (awakening) must not only NOT burn out, but continue to burn more and more brightly, both culturally and politically, if we have any hope of "some significant, systemic change and a more just society." This awakening consists totally of the Left, and this change depends totally on a victory by The Left.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#76
(06-19-2020, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-18-2020, 01:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-17-2020, 03:50 PM)TnT Wrote: Whenever the hell it started, we sure are in it now, and it has all the makings of "putting all the cards on the table," as the theory suggests is probable.

I agree. But it makes a huge difference whether this early in the 4T (meaning there is still time for change to occur) or we are late in the 4T in which the "change" was a collective decision to NOT change and go gently into that good night as a nation.

I don't see any reason the pace of change needs to be tied to a schedule of any kind.  The arrival of an anticipated though unpredictable pandemic is a case in point.  By it's very nature, it sets the pace, but could just as easily have arrived 10 years ago or 10 years from now.  The same could have been true of a climate catastrophe, but wasn't this time.  The other crises are certainly human caused, but the economic stressors are tied to the pandemic, so even there the pace is set by nature.

Until this confluence occurred, I was expecting a do-nothing 4T. I'm not expecting that now.  As far as when the beginning trigger can be set, that's still arguable.  I think we all agree that, barring the election of Barack Obama, a Donald Trump Presidency was a fantasy. Is that a legitimate argument for 2008?  Perhaps.  It will be a while before this all settles out, and how that happens will be the most instructive on how and why it started.  We can collectively choose chaos or a new order, but that choice is still in the future.

I don't see why the pandemic would be any more of a call to action than the financial crisis. The latter was the smaller event, but the response by elites to secure their own position was slower. This time they were right on the ball and have pretty much insulated themselves from the outcome, so far.
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#77
(06-21-2020, 01:41 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-19-2020, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-18-2020, 01:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-17-2020, 03:50 PM)TnT Wrote: Whenever the hell it started, we sure are in it now, and it has all the makings of "putting all the cards on the table," as the theory suggests is probable.

I agree. But it makes a huge difference whether this early in the 4T (meaning there is still time for change to occur) or we are late in the 4T in which the "change" was a collective decision to NOT change and go gently into that good night as a nation.

I don't see any reason the pace of change needs to be tied to a schedule of any kind.  The arrival of an anticipated though unpredictable pandemic is a case in point.  By it's very nature, it sets the pace, but could just as easily have arrived 10 years ago or 10 years from now.  The same could have been true of a climate catastrophe, but wasn't this time.  The other crises are certainly human caused, but the economic stressors are tied to the pandemic, so even there the pace is set by nature.

Until this confluence occurred, I was expecting a do-nothing 4T. I'm not expecting that now.  As far as when the beginning trigger can be set, that's still arguable.  I think we all agree that, barring the election of Barack Obama, a Donald Trump Presidency was a fantasy. Is that a legitimate argument for 2008?  Perhaps.  It will be a while before this all settles out, and how that happens will be the most instructive on how and why it started.  We can collectively choose chaos or a new order, but that choice is still in the future.

I don't see why the pandemic would be any more of a call to action than the financial crisis. The latter was the smaller event, but the response by elites to secure their own position was slower. This time they were right on the ball and have pretty much insulated themselves from the outcome, so far.

Maybe its just the acceleration that happens as opposing sides struggle to secure everything they can.  Then again, the virus did change a lot of minds, and seems to be doing more as times goes on.  We're already one of the most pathetic nations, even the blind are slowly beginning to see.  Which is why I seriously doubt that Trump can triumph again -- especially following his 2016 game plan. It's spent.  That in no way dictates a governing success by Democrats.  They seem incapable of knowing how to win and capitalize on it when they do.  If they win dramatically and it all turns into a pissing contest, it may be over for the saeculum.  

In any case, both parties need better versions of themselves, or a hard push to the sidelines if that's what it takes.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#78
(06-21-2020, 04:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-21-2020, 01:41 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-19-2020, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-18-2020, 01:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-17-2020, 03:50 PM)TnT Wrote: Whenever the hell it started, we sure are in it now, and it has all the makings of "putting all the cards on the table," as the theory suggests is probable.

I agree. But it makes a huge difference whether this early in the 4T (meaning there is still time for change to occur) or we are late in the 4T in which the "change" was a collective decision to NOT change and go gently into that good night as a nation.

I don't see any reason the pace of change needs to be tied to a schedule of any kind.  The arrival of an anticipated though unpredictable pandemic is a case in point.  By it's very nature, it sets the pace, but could just as easily have arrived 10 years ago or 10 years from now.  The same could have been true of a climate catastrophe, but wasn't this time.  The other crises are certainly human caused, but the economic stressors are tied to the pandemic, so even there the pace is set by nature.

Until this confluence occurred, I was expecting a do-nothing 4T. I'm not expecting that now.  As far as when the beginning trigger can be set, that's still arguable.  I think we all agree that, barring the election of Barack Obama, a Donald Trump Presidency was a fantasy. Is that a legitimate argument for 2008?  Perhaps.  It will be a while before this all settles out, and how that happens will be the most instructive on how and why it started.  We can collectively choose chaos or a new order, but that choice is still in the future.

I don't see why the pandemic would be any more of a call to action than the financial crisis. The latter was the smaller event, but the response by elites to secure their own position was slower. This time they were right on the ball and have pretty much insulated themselves from the outcome, so far.

Maybe its just the acceleration that happens as opposing sides struggle to secure everything they can.  Then again, the virus did change a lot of minds, and seems to be doing more as times goes on.  We're already one of the most pathetic nations, even the blind are slowly beginning to see.  Which is why I seriously doubt that Trump can triumph again -- especially following his 2016 game plan. It's spent.  That in no way dictates a governing success by Democrats.  They seem incapable of knowing how to win and capitalize on it when they do.  If they win dramatically and it all turns into a pissing contest, it may be over for the saeculum.  

In any case, both parties need better versions of themselves, or a hard push to the sidelines if that's what it takes.

Just as a place to start, if I put my stake in the ground and say that this "twenty year" crisis ends sometime around 2025, we have a LOT of time left for unimaginable difficulty.

Listening to both sides of the partisan divide, and their inabilities to compromise, being a skeptic, I wouldn't be surprised to see regional civil wars break out.  If that happens and if history "rhymes," we might see our current military divide like it did in 1860 along partisan sides.  These pot-bellied, lunatic "militias" like we have in New Mexico actually think they have some sort of ability to "save the constitution" and other fantasies.  They are already in the streets, armed with small arms.  As soon as they start shooting in earnest, we will then find out where the "sides" come down.
[fon‌t=Arial Black]... a man of notoriously vicious and intemperate disposition.[/font]
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#79
(06-21-2020, 01:57 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(06-20-2020, 12:57 PM)User3451 Wrote: I also see this as a culmination of the totality of the last saeculum.

Civil Rights. Awakening things like astrology and witches. Culture wars. Etc

The "left" is currently proving to be just as insane as the tea party.

I think that the great awokening  will (hopefully) burn out just like the tea party did, and in a few years well have some significant, systemic change and a more just society.

The crisis is culminating the saeculum. The issues on the national agenda remain those from the Awakening, which arose from conditions during the first turning. They have not been dealt with during the third turning, as is usual. As usual for an internal-directed saeculum, in the 4th turning the resistance from reactionaries in the cold civil war has continued to block the agenda to a great degree, despite some progress. During the second half of the 4T, this seaculum's agenda (at least in its institutional and political aspects) needs to be addressed in full, even if not fully resolved. This agenda includes but is not limited to: displacing systemic racism and other discrimination, reversing climate change and pollution, dismantling Reaganomics and other left-over laissez-faire approaches which cause inequality and lack of mobility and inhibit action on all issues, restore full democracy and voting rights in all respects, control guns and gun violence, advance health care for all, and supporting peace rather than imperial wars and militarism.

The cultural awakening of the 2T remains on the agenda too, including "astrology and witches" and the counter-culture, and in general an awakening of spirituality in which spirit is immanent as well as transcendent, as well as a re-awakening of more-traditional transcendent religion. The culture wars largely result from the conflict between the emergent counterculture allied with the liberal agenda, vs. the traditional religious ones allied with resistance to the political agenda, as well as a conflict between those two and the normal exaggerated materialism, scientism and physicalism prevalent in the USA in non-awakening turnings. Given the decline of the counter-culture and its new "consciousness revolution" awakening in the current 4th turning (including "astrology and witches" but not limited to those), it will revive again in the next 2T.

Meanwhile, it remains for the USA to discover that to be truly healthy and creative, the new spiritual culture of the recurring "immanent as well as transcendent" Awakenings must continue and grow, rather than decline, during ALL turnings (including "astrology and witches," but a whole lot more than that). Materialism alone can never be a basis for civilization in the long run. We need to revive our awareness of spirit, rather than see ourselves as merely the effect of mechanical causes, or interested merely in material advancement and economic prosperity alone. Otherwise our inspiration, our connection with divine knowledge and power, and our creative energy fades away. At the same time, I see the need for continued respect for science and its methods for inquiry into questions for which it is best suited, and too much fantasy and irrationalism may lead (and have led us) into too much conspiracy theory and other fantasy thinking. The proper balance is needed.

The Left today is nowhere near as insane as the tea party of the 2010s, and in fact it could never be just by definition. I see little source of needed changes from right-wing movements today, even if it feeds on some genuine concerns. The Left today is strong, but no doubt there are elements in it that are too fanatic and who arouse divisions on the left side of the aisle, whether they are from either the moderate or liberal/left wings. The Left today is putting forth the right issues and solutions. But it needs to pull together more, and to reinforce the alliance among its wings and its issues in order to gain the victory, which is essential for our continued progress through the turnings and our continued existence as a republic. In 4Ts, the existence of the nation is at stake. It's time to rescue and transform it this decade. The United States must have a new birth of freedom so that government of the people, by the people and for the people does not perish.

The great awokening (awakening) must not only NOT burn out, but continue to burn more and more brightly, both culturally and politically, if we have any hope of "some significant, systemic change and a more just society." This awakening consists totally of the Left, and this change depends totally on a victory by The Left.
I see what you're saying and agree with some and disagree with some. 

For the record I would consider myself pretty far left. 

Yes, we need to make significant strides on economic and racial equality. No question, it is crucial for the survival of our nation. 

I don't see how fighting racism with racism worksY though. They just say let's keep the current unjust system but replace white male republicans with black people. 

Now the grift to commodify "the revolution" does not mean the we shouldn't seek racial and economic justice. Just the opposite. We have an opportunity for authentic change. 

But violent mobs of people that don't can't tolerate any difference of opinion sounds more like the same old the a brand new world. 

The woke crowd isn't really far left, they are mostly authoritarian liberals anyway. Many don't believe in free speech.
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#80
(06-22-2020, 05:04 PM)of the Revolutionary TnT Wrote:
(06-21-2020, 04:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-21-2020, 01:41 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(06-19-2020, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(06-18-2020, 01:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I agree. But it makes a huge difference whether this early in the 4T (meaning there is still time for change to occur) or we are late in the 4T in which the "change" was a collective decision to NOT change and go gently into that good night as a nation.

I don't see any reason the pace of change needs to be tied to a schedule of any kind.  The arrival of an anticipated though unpredictable pandemic is a case in point.  By it's very nature, it sets the pace, but could just as easily have arrived 10 years ago or 10 years from now.  The same could have been true of a climate catastrophe, but wasn't this time.  The other crises are certainly human caused, but the economic stressors are tied to the pandemic, so even there the pace is set by nature.

Until this confluence occurred, I was expecting a do-nothing 4T. I'm not expecting that now.  As far as when the beginning trigger can be set, that's still arguable.  I think we all agree that, barring the election of Barack Obama, a Donald Trump Presidency was a fantasy. Is that a legitimate argument for 2008?  Perhaps.  It will be a while before this all settles out, and how that happens will be the most instructive on how and why it started.  We can collectively choose chaos or a new order, but that choice is still in the future.

I don't see why the pandemic would be any more of a call to action than the financial crisis. The latter was the smaller event, but the response by elites to secure their own position was slower. This time they were right on the ball and have pretty much insulated themselves from the outcome, so far.

Maybe its just the acceleration that happens as opposing sides struggle to secure everything they can.  Then again, the virus did change a lot of minds, and seems to be doing more as times goes on.  We're already one of the most pathetic nations, even the blind are slowly beginning to see.  Which is why I seriously doubt that Trump can triumph again -- especially following his 2016 game plan. It's spent.  That in no way dictates a governing success by Democrats.  They seem incapable of knowing how to win and capitalize on it when they do.  If they win dramatically and it all turns into a pissing contest, it may be over for the saeculum.  

In any case, both parties need better versions of themselves, or a hard push to the sidelines if that's what it takes.

Just as a place to start, if I put my stake in the ground and say that this "twenty year" crisis ends sometime around 2025, we have a LOT of time left for unimaginable difficulty.

Listening to both sides of the partisan divide, and their inabilities to compromise, being a skeptic, I wouldn't be surprised to see regional civil wars break out.  If that happens and if history "rhymes," we might see our current military divide like it did in 1860 along partisan sides.  These pot-bellied, lunatic "militias" like we have in New Mexico actually think they have some sort of ability to "save the constitution" and other fantasies.  They are already in the streets, armed with small arms.  As soon as they start shooting in earnest, we will then find out where the "sides" come down.

I don't buy the idea that a really serious crisis can be resolved in 5 years. I don't buy S&H's Civil War dating. Unlike many T4Ters I believe the crisis began in 1860 as S&H have it, but it continued to 1877, including the passage of the 13th through 15th Amendments, Reconstruction, and the 1875 Civil Rights bill. I believe the rise of labor strife during the gilded age is part of the 4T and so the massive spike in violence in 1877 needs to be included. Also, it aligns with the end of Reconstruction.

Also, the Plague crisis (1352-81) lasted for multiple decades after the initial political response to the plague over 1349-51 that served as the trigger.

Finally, the "main event" of the Revolutionary and Glorious 4Ts ended 13 and 12 years before the end of the 4T, respectively.

So even if 2020 begins the "main event" of this 4T, we still have a lot longer that five years to go. I note Howe is looking at 2030 for the end.
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