Common Mistakes People Make with Generational Theory

[JasonBlack]

As you're probably aware, a lot of people either dismiss or misapply S&H theory because they don't get how it works. Below is a brief list of some of the most common errors people tend to make.  

1) Cutting the generations too short. The length of a generation is supposed represent the approximate length of a phase of life, not the 15-ish years people typically use as boundary lines. 
2) Over-emphasis on the previous saeculum, especially the GIs. Millennials will never become as socially conservative as the GIs, boomers will never become as religiously fundamentalist as the missionaries, etc. 
3) Over-emphasis on the "hero" aspect of the civic archetype. Collective bravery is only one aspect of civic generations. We also need to take into consideration susceptibility to peer pressure, strong pro-science/rationalism orientation, propensity for social organization, relatively bland cultural contributions and strong sense of duty...most of which fit millennials like a glove. 
4) Seeing the 4th turning as a singular event (WW2, GFC, Covid, etc) rather than a period of history that tends to last considerably longer. 
5) Putting the boundaries of "coming of age" earlier than is realistic. A lot of people assume your teens are your "coming of age years", but this is really only true in terms of identity. Your real coming of age years are when you strike out in the real world, where you can make some kind of tangible difference in terms of productivity, combat, intellectual contributions or some other kind of mark on the world. This is why "rising adulthood" is defined as the years from around 20-22 to 40-44, rather than, say, teens to early 20s, when you really can't have a lot of impact.
6) Incorrectly correlating 4th turnings with wars. Wars can pop up in any era. For example, 3rd turnings gave us WWI and the French and Indian War, 2nd Turnings gave us Vietnam and the Mexican-American War, 1st Turnings gave us the Korean War, etc. What is important with regards to turnings is the response to said war, both militarily and socially. 
7) Over-simplifying generational theory as "kids rebelling against their parents"....no. Generational archetypes arise primarily from shared experience of going through significant political events at a similar age, suffering the consequences of a hole being left by a previous generation (ex: millennials feeling the effects of lack of functioning institutions and widespread social fragmentation). 
8) Assuming the hero generation is the fiery revolutionary archetype, when, in practice, this tends to be the idealists.

[Eric the Green]

That's a good summary. I would only quibble a bit with #5. The coming of age referred to is about formation of attitudes and view of the world, political, cultural, social, which certainly happens in response to the events of the time. Usually this is extended back to the mid teen years. Whether one is engaged in making a living or a mark on the world yet is not so relevant. But otherwise I agree with your list of errors.

[pbrower2a]

(05-31-2022, 05:15 PM)JasonBlack Wrote: As you're probably aware, a lot of people either dismiss or misapply S&H theory because they don't get how it works. Below is a brief list of some of the most common errors people tend to make.  

1) Cutting the generations too short. The length of a generation is supposed represent the approximate length of a phase of life, not the 15-ish years people typically use as boundary lines.

In recent times, definition of youth by culture and mores defined generations. Kids need only reach their late teens to be so defined. Achieving professional and economic adulthood takes much more time Culture may have defined adulthood from at the latest at the least the Lost up to Boomers. Thus the Lost get 18 years of youth, GI's 24, the Silent 19, Boomers 18, and  X 21. Such durations also practically ensure that except for teenagers who are grossly unwise and either get married at 14 or are single mothers at 16 that the early wave of a generation will not bear or sire children of the late wave of their generation unless losers who go nowhere in life. OK, I can think of a counter-example with George Herbert Walker Bush (born 1924) having a GI mother. 

Is it possible that one generation will be extended to make adjustments? Economic conditions have been pushing childbearing deep at least into the twenties except for the unfortunate lost of those "children having children". Although I do not ascribe to eugenics, I see a big problem with well-educated people likely to be good parents not having children because they have more responsibilities to the landlord class than to anyone else -- they pay the rent and defer children. until they can no longer do so -- while semi-literate losers in "Meth Valley" or "Spent Mine Village" bear children who keep seeing the Blue Meanies (police) take Mommy and Daddy away. This reflects the perverse economic priorities of a society that sees rewarding those who corner the market with even more wealth while everyone else goes broke.  

As the economic order becomes more unforgiving, youth will need to nest longer so that they not find destitution as a necessary condition of employment. The escalation of the treadmill of qualifications certainly isn't making economic adulthood easy to achieve. If one isn't able to put down a down payment on at the least a cooperative apartment because slumlords dominate a real-estate market in which they are free to gouge, then young adults will lack even geographic mobility. 

Quote:2) Over-emphasis on the previous saeculum, especially the GIs. Millennials will never become as socially conservative as the GIs, boomers will never become as religiously fundamentalist as the missionaries, etc.

 

Boomers are not an economic monolith, but their economic elites are. Boomer executives are the absolute worst of their kind, with Gilded greed, Silent entrepreneurialism, and an attitude associated with Transcendental planters (they see themselves as benefactors to the slaves that they exploit with impunity). They have groomed X elites to be much the same, which is to be a coalition of predatory capitalists and a Soviet-style nomenklatura. 

 

Quote:3) Over-emphasis on the "hero" aspect of the civic archetype. Collective bravery is only one aspect of civic generations. We also need to take into consideration susceptibility to peer pressure, strong pro-science/rationalism orientation, propensity for social organization, relatively bland cultural contributions and strong sense of duty...most of which fit millennials like a glove.

 
People forget that the GI Generation, aside from a minuscule elite, mostly grew up in what we would consider hardscrabble conditions. Radio, phonographs, and motion pictures were their electronic entertainment. People not WASPs were still mostly destitute. Education up to the eighth grade was generally considered adequate, especially if one's father had a bum ticker. Sure, there were cars, but the highways were dreadful. The highway death rate was horrific, which is exactly what one would expect without safety glass, collapsible steering columns, seat belts, and shoulder harnesses -- and when drunk driving was treated leniently. Then the roads -- two-lane blacktops with blind intersections and 90-degree unbanked turns, all with speeds just as high in the 1960's. I'd still take the train. Freeways may be dull, but they can get one through some un-scenic territory like most of Illinois very fast and safely.    

Quote:4) Seeing the 4th turning as a singular event (WW2, GFC, Covid, etc) rather than a period of history that tends to last considerably longer. 

The only really-short Crisis Era was the American Civil War, which reflects poor timing (the Compromise generation was still able to muck things up, the Transcendental Generation had separated into two hostile and inimical camps [on slavery], the Gilded had yet to learn that war was more calamity than opportunity, and there was no real Civic generation. At the end of the Crisis America was exhausted in everything but the desire to get rich quick. 

The last completed Crisis may have started with the economic meltdown of 1929-1932, but had the meltdown ended in the spring of 1931 (just back the banks!) before the destructive bank runs began, then things might have been slower to spiral into the murderous climax that there was. Germany got hit even harder than America, and it ended up with a veritable Antichrist taking over. We have not seen anything quite like that, so that Crisis is not a good analogue for this one. 

Quote:5) Putting the boundaries of "coming of age" earlier than is realistic. A lot of people assume your teens are your "coming of age years", but this is really only true in terms of identity. Your real coming of age years are when you strike out in the real world, where you can make some kind of tangible difference in terms of productivity, combat, intellectual contributions or some other kind of mark on the world. This is why "rising adulthood" is defined as the years from around 20-22 to 40-44, rather than, say, teens to early 20s, when you really can't have a lot of impact.

Cultural values are generally mostly set in teen years, and politics just a little later. Howe and Strauss predicted that Generation X would be ultra-conservative, and many of their leaders are. But in the workplace, X found that the shareholders and executives are exploiters and not allies. With our increasingly plutocratic economy, economic maturity may never arrive for many of us. 

Quote:6) Incorrectly correlating 4th turnings with wars. Wars can pop up in any era. For example, 3rd turnings gave us WWI and the French and Indian War, 2nd Turnings gave us Vietnam and the Mexican-American War, 1st Turnings gave us the Korean War, etc. What is important with regards to turnings is the response to said war, both militarily and socially. 

As far as I am concerned, COVID-19 is the Crisis war; it certainly kills like one and causes economic havoc. It is a huge budget-buster. If I were President when COVID-19 struck I would vilify the virus much like Missionaries vilified the Axis leadership. 

Quote:7) Over-simplifying generational theory as "kids rebelling against their parents"....no. Generational archetypes arise primarily from shared experience of going through significant political events at a similar age, suffering the consequences of a hole being left by a previous generation (ex: millennials feeling the effects of lack of functioning institutions and widespread social fragmentation). 

Boomers rebelled against the bland, workaholic, unimaginative culture of the GI's. Millennial adults seem to want to restore and renovate institutions or establish new ones.   

Quote:8) Assuming the hero generation is the fiery revolutionary archetype, when, in practice, this tends to be the idealists.

The last time in which a Civic-like generation became resolute revolutionaries was the French Revolution in which cults of reason were pushed - and people rationally decided to let the guillotine amputate heads as a veritable (dis) assembly line. Reason is obviously not enough. Some human deeds cannot be done without some non-rational impetus. It is not rational to stop everything to nurse one's baby. it is not rational to recognize a glorious sunset or let a Mozart piano concerto take one away. Creative activity can never be fully rational. Love is certainly not rational, and neither is caring for vulnerable people. 

Id, ego, and superego. The id encompasses the pleasure principle, without which nothing is enjoyable and one might be tempted to simply wait for rigor mortis to set in; it is also the survival instinct. Ego is rational processes and personal identity. People without it are crazy or they are dumb crooks if not slaves. The superego tells us what is right and wrong in everyday life. It allows one to recognize duty and to register disgust at blatant injustice.

Sustainable happiness is a strong indication of the appropriateness of one's choices. So one trades off the primary colors of delight that come with ephemeral, but destructive and costly bliss: "highs" from drugs, drunkenness, impulse spending, sugar, gambling, roadway dares, and witless entertainment. The happiest people that I have known are those who plan for good things that they can keep remembering and that they can talk about. So they went to the Prado, heard the Vienna Philharmonic live, or saw Yosemite in its fullest majesty. They had to plan; they had to save money; they had to budget money and time. Contrast those who have blown the equivalent of a car payment at a casino  or a family outing to an amusement park, or perhaps bought a round of drinks for everyone in a crowded bar . Very little that is truly good does not have a dollar sign attached in America. Some sp[ending brings more happiness and some doesn't.

[JasonBlack]

Quote:In recent times, definition of youth by culture and mores defined generations. Kids need only reach their late teens to be so defined. Achieving professional and economic adulthood takes much more time Culture may have defined adulthood from at the latest at the least the Lost up to Boomers. Thus the Lost get 18 years of youth, GI's 24, the Silent 19, Boomers 18, and X 21.

They may be defined during their late teens, but, as most people who have interacted with teenagers well know, that identity usually isn't stable until closer to 20-22, with one's political beliefs tending to be formed mostly between, say, 18-24.

[JasonBlack]

Another one: I think there is a tendency to view Adaptives as more mousy than is often the case. The earlier waves of adaptive generations typically had much harder upbringings than their parents and grandparents, and while overprotection of children is the most common human impulse during eras of crisis, the poverty, social fragmentation and institutional decay brought about by the prior two turnings mean this isn't always possible, and that many children needed to be tough, resourceful and grow up unnaturally fast.

[Tim Randal Walker]

9) Unawareness of the double rhythm. Which is probably most important in regards to types of 4Ts.

[David Horn]

(06-01-2022, 08:45 PM)JasonBlack Wrote:

Quote:In recent times, definition of youth by culture and mores defined generations. Kids need only reach their late teens to be so defined. Achieving professional and economic adulthood takes much more time Culture may have defined adulthood from at the latest at the least the Lost up to Boomers. Thus the Lost get 18 years of youth, GI's 24, the Silent 19, Boomers 18, and  X 21.

They may be defined during their late teens, but, as most people who have interacted with teenagers well know, that identity usually isn't stable until closer to 20-22, with one's political beliefs tending to be formed mostly between, say, 18-24.

My political belief formed n high school.  I may be an exception, but I know many others from my HS class that had similar results.  Of course, those were very dramatic times, and the youth during the interregnum  between then and now may have had different experiences.  I doubt that applies now, though.  My concern is not belioef structure but how wedded the youth of today are to their own.  FWIW, I seems to be weak to me.

[JasonBlack]

(08-05-2022, 09:24 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: 9) Unawareness of the double rhythm. Which is probably most important in regards to types of 4Ts.

You can count me among them in this instance, as I don't know what that is haha.

[JasonBlack]

(08-05-2022, 09:45 AM)David Horn Wrote: My political belief formed n high school.  I may be an exception, but I know many others from my HS class that had similar results.  Of course, those were very dramatic times, and the youth during the interregnum  between then and now may have had different experiences.  I doubt that applies now, though.  My concern is not belioef structure but how wedded the youth of today are to their own.  FWIW, I seems to be weak to me.

Most people's beliefs form in high school. My point was more that the cake isn't metaphorically baked until mid 20s, until which time people's beliefs tend to be a bit more fluid.

[Tim Randal Walker]

JasonBlack, I would refer you to two of the archived threads:

!. The Alternating Paradign theory.

2. Two Lifetime Cycle.

[pbrower2a]

(06-01-2022, 08:45 PM)JasonBlack Wrote:

Quote:In recent times, definition of youth by culture and mores defined generations. Kids need only reach their late teens to be so defined. Achieving professional and economic adulthood takes much more time Culture may have defined adulthood from at the latest at the least the Lost up to Boomers. Thus the Lost get 18 years of youth, GI's 24, the Silent 19, Boomers 18, and  X 21.

They may be defined during their late teens, but, as most people who have interacted with teenagers well know, that identity usually isn't stable until closer to 20-22, with one's political beliefs tending to be formed mostly between, say, 18-24.

They are still going with the crowd. Some people outgrow the mass low culture. or the low culture begins to lose some of its attractiveness as it loses characteristics which once made it appealing. Disco (for its shallowness) was good for turning me off from the pop music scene once and for all.  Still, does a personal 'discovery' of Mozart really change one's political, moral, or economic values? Probably not. The pop culture going into the mid-1970's often had some wit and at least intellectual pretense. What followed lost that pretension and proved mindless. GI commentator Herb Caen heard what child X'ers were listening to and was appalled at the emptiness of what he heard.

[David Horn]

(08-06-2022, 09:49 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: JasonBlack, I would refer you to two of the archived threads:

!.  The Alternating Paradign theory.

2.  Two Lifetime Cycle.

Great point.  Those of us who have been at this for decades (remember, the original forum started in earnest just after 9/11, and a few posters were there even earlier) tend to forget that not everyone is familiar with all the theorizing from the past.  FWIW, I see the alternating paradigm rather clearly: this is another ACW-like Crisis era.  Do we survive ths time? TBD.

[JasonBlack]

(08-07-2022, 08:22 AM)David Horn Wrote: Great point.  Those of us who have been at this for decades (remember, the original forum started in earnest just after 9/11, and a few posters were there even earlier) tend to forget that not everyone is familiar with all the theorizing from the past.  FWIW, I see the alternating paradigm rather clearly: this is another ACW-like Crisis era.  Do we survive ths time? TBD.

oof, I was only 10 at that time. I will remember to hit this place up again the next time I start to feel old lmao.

[pbrower2a]

We have multiple cycles in operation. Some fit well, at least in America. For example, two Skowronek cycles represent two near-halves of each Saeculum. Both begin with a new political paradigm that shows portents in the previous cycle and come with a very effective President fitting the new paradigm (FDR, Reagan) and a highly-ineffective one at the end (Carter, Trump). This most likely reflects declining returns to an agenda over about forty years. With the Presidency, this reflects itself in the generally-declining assessments of the overall competence of the Presidents as the era ages. Consider Washington to John Quincy Adams, Andrew Jackson to James Buchanan (with Presidents between Polk and Lincoln generally seen as the worst in American history). Lincoln is Lincoln, and what passes for the end of an era is William McKinley, a middling President... then comes Teddy Roosevelt to the trio of bad Presidents in Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover.

Oddly, Obama is decidedly above average, although between dreadful Dubya and Mister Unmentionable.

The multi-stroke cycle may reflect that some people may exploit the memories of the experiences of old people from when they were born. In my case the oldest person of whom I have a solid memory was born in 1877. This man was old (78) when I was born. Should I have an active memory as long after birth as he had a lifespan before I was born, then this man's tales of a failed attempt to settle too far west in Nebraska due to a lack of reliable water, then I will be able to give someone a tale of something from the 1880's in 2033. I never got to know anyone with a memory of the American Civil War or any earlier time so directly. One has to read, and every author and publisher typically has some agenda other than objectivity (like making the story interesting enough to read). How good a reflection do we have of the Wild West from Western movies? Good question.

The greatest civil leaders during a Crisis Era know their history. FDR knew how to use Lincolnesque phrases against the Axis Powers. With his country in even greater peril in 1940, Churchill reached as far back as the Romans. Comparisons between World War II and the Second Punic War have been made.

The big cycle (as Arnold Toynbee suggests) is the lifetime of a civilization. A civilization begins with innovative solutions to big problems that leave behind communities that do much better. Maybe hunter-gatherers organize villages with formal government that taxes people to support a reliable defense, turns wartime regulation into formal law, and initiates record-keeping. There may be multiple communities that have experienced a similar transformation, but civilization has begun. Or -- from the ashes of a wrecked order comes much the same. Over time that civilization homogenizes and expands (often through voluntary imitation) In the final centuries of a civilization the civilization comes under the rule of some Universal State that encompasses it all -- and represses reforms and innovations because those seem to be destruction. The civilization has lost its vitality and adaptability and becomes vulnerable to outsiders that are more versatile and adaptable.

Western civilization has had plenty of candidates to be the Universal State: Habsburg Spain-Austria, Napoleon's realm, Wilhelmine Germany, and most ominously the demonic Third Reich. The United States may be one of the most impressive empires in world history, in part because it has kept its adaptability and has never become an aggressive, inflexible behemoth. We Americans are most likely long separated from the disaster of Toynbee's Universal State.

[JasonBlack]

I think there's a tendency to assume that Idealists are all overly spoiled and age into aggressive demagogues or closed-minded zealots. If anything, "idealist" also implies a level of sensitivity and a curious mind, which often takes the form of a sage or intellectual rather than someone fixated on forcefully controlling reality or ruthlessly extracting resources for its own sake. For instance, a lot of millennials don't realize that most of the boomers had stricter upbringings than they did with more corporal punishment and fatherly discipline. Keep in mind that, so far at least, it has been GIs who forced young boomers into the draft, while boomers have yet to do the same to their own children. With the exception of George W. Bush, boomer presidents have resided over smaller and smaller numbers of troops stationed overseas.

For example, most of y'all here are boomers. How would you respond if there was an eminent call for a draft and your son called you up asking if you knew a way to dodge it? Now how would your parents have responded if you said the same thing to them? I spoke with my own parents about this a few weeks ago, and asked if the test that showed I suffer minor hearing impairment could be used to disqualify me from the draft. They laughed, and I then continued "imagine how your parents would have reacted if you had said this to them". They could not stop laughing. I hate to say this, but...I'm glad my paternal grandfather died before geopolitical tensions rose to this level. He volunteered during WWII (a cook for the marines in the Pacific Theater), and quite likely would have disowned me as a traitor for speaking so openly about fleeing from duty to country. As much as I admired him for his firm-yet-kind demeanor and quiet heir of dignity, this would not have changed my decision. Most of the GIs would have seen me as a traitor and a coward, while most boomers would respond with something like "good on you son!", or start talking about how it's a good thing to evade conscription into useless wars and mass violence.

[pbrower2a]

(10-16-2022, 01:21 AM)JasonBlack Wrote: I think there's a tendency to assume that Idealists are all overly spoiled and age into aggressive demagogues or closed-minded zealots. If anything, "idealist" also implies a level of sensitivity and a curious mind, which often takes the form of a sage or intellectual rather than someone fixated on forcefully controlling reality or ruthlessly extracting resources for its own sake. For instance, a lot of millennials don't realize that most of the boomers had stricter upbringings than they did with more corporal punishment and fatherly discipline. Keep in mind that, so far at least, it has been GIs who forced young boomers into the draft, while boomers have yet to do the same to their own children. With the exception of George W. Bush, boomer presidents have resided over smaller and smaller numbers of troops stationed overseas.

As with practically all history, Howe and Strauss find the temptation of the Great Man much of the expression of history. Not until modern times do we get narratives from others -- like peasants, clerks, foot-soldiers, and laborers. These people also experience history even if they do not direct it as do kings, generals, plutocrats, and high-level creative people. Maybe we get their stories through someone like Charles Dickens or Victor Hugo, which spares us some incoherence. 

We all face predictable transitions in our lives if we live long enough. We all find something inadequate in our parents' or grandparents' way of life. Such could be on something so banal as cuisine. My grandparents liked to cook vegetables to a texture-less, bland concoction that felt like mashed potatoes. I found out that vegetables were far tastier if steamed and offered some tactile sensation and more flavor to my mouth. With candy it does not matter. With broccoli or cauliflower, texture matters greatly.   Another is that one quits growing in cognitive power, usually in late teens or around 20. That is a brick wall, and that is measured in the assumption on IQ tests that people don't get smarter after age 20; They can still learn, but their ability to learn does not increase. 

We have gotten complacent about the certainty of certain coming-of-age rituals from first communions or bar mitzvahs (depending on religious tradition, or perhaps nothing of the like because one lives in an irreligious environment), Scouting or 4-H, senior proms, quinceanero celebrations, graduations, getting a first driver's license, or getting to vote. (Worse, it could be the first jail term, drug high, or incidence of drunkenness. COVID-19 disrupted many of those; that's how Crisis eras operate. Perhaps had the Capitol Putsch succeeded as planned, politics would become nothing more than blind obedience. There would be votes but without meaningful choice or pre-ordained results. 

Without doubt the key players of history are loud and often abrasive. They usually have the advantages in life that many of us wish we had even if we couldn't handle those advantages well. I think of celebrities, pop musicians, and athletes who mess up badly... well, maybe many of us could not handle all the advantages well. The "Lena Lamont" (Singin' in the Rain) character can easily morph into "Nora Desmond"  (Sunset Boulevard). I'd like to believe that if I were a film star I would have salted away much of my take into real estate or oil wells, and not on floozies. Pop musician or child star? As the career winds down, it's off to Stanford. Pro athlete? Associate with bankers and not hookers and pushers.  More resources in someone unable to handle them means even more ways in which to mess up. The rest of us get far less leeway. Many of us have soul-crashing drudgery on an assembly line -- or probably worse, jobs in which one must suffer for customers, bosses, and investors with some theatrical smile that suggests one enjoys subordination, poverty, and regimentation. Far more people endure those lives than get to enjoy the Good Life.                

Quote:For example, most of y'all here are boomers. How would you respond if there was an eminent call for a draft and your son called you up asking if you knew a way to dodge it? Now how would your parents have responded if you said the same thing to them? I spoke with my own parents about this a few weeks ago, and asked if the test that showed I suffer minor hearing impairment could be used to disqualify me from the draft. They laughed, and I then continued "imagine how your parents would have reacted if you had said this to them". They could not stop laughing. I hate to say this, but...I'm glad my paternal grandfather died before geopolitical tensions rose to this level. He volunteered during WWII (a cook for the marines in the Pacific Theater), and quite likely would have disowned me as a traitor for speaking so openly about fleeing from duty to country. As much as I admired him for his firm-yet-kind demeanor and quiet heir of dignity, this would not have changed my decision. Most of the GIs would have seen me as a traitor and a coward, while most boomers would respond with something like "good on you son!", or start talking about how it's a good thing to evade conscription into useless wars and mass violence.

The military draft remains. If we ever see our country in imminent danger of attack by an aggressive superpower, then we will have millions called up for military training and perhaps warfare. If it ever comes down to this, when the most powerful forces of historical reality decide between freedom and despotism:

Quote:O thus be it ever, when freemen shall stand
Between their loved homes and the war's desolation.
Blest with vict'ry and peace, may the Heav'n rescued land
Praise the Power that hath made and preserved us a nation!
Then conquer we must, when our cause it is just,
And this be our motto: 'In God is our trust.'
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

Forty-eight stars and thirteen stripes marched into Dachau and Mauthausen to emancipate prisoners of a demonic regime... in that case, our conquest was just.  A war for the profit of warmongers or the glorification of some leader? Young men are getting out of Russia to avoid an unjust and absurd war. I'm not saying that we will ever have a Putin-like leader, but should such ever happen then resistance to an unjust war is the definitive act of patriotism.