http://peterturchin.com/blog/2016/07/15/...ami-wages/

Quote:We all have heard the phrase: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” (for its origin, see the entry in Wikipedia). This phrase is a damned lie.


You cannot lie with statistics if they are properly done; that is, if you show both the data and the method you used to analyze the data. Only the innumerate can be lied to with statistics. “Innumeracy” is inability to deal with numbers and quantitative reasoning, just as “illiteracy” is the inability to read. Unfortunately, although only 30 percent of Americans are functionally illiterate, a much, much higher percent are functionally innumerate. However, for important issues, you will always find numerate people on both sides, and thus when one side attempts to lie with statistics, the other side will point out the problems and perform alternative analyses. Numerate public, by spending a little effort to follow the logic of both sides, will immediately see who is right and who is wrong. And that’s why statistics are very different from “damned lies.”


Here’s a good example of how this works in practice, with me a numerate bystander in one very important debate: does massive immigration depress wages of native workers..


http://peterturchin.com/blog/2016/07/15/...ami-wages/

Taking bets on Kremlin involvement / instigation / support.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/16/world/....html?_r=0

http://abcnews.go.com/International/nice...d=40590537

Quote: The southern French city of Nice was on lockdown amid fears of a terror attack after a truck drove into a large crowd during Bastille Day celebrations, officials said.
A local official told French TV there were "about 30 dead."
About 100 others were injured, a local official said.
The driver has been killed, a local official told French TV. 
 The local government said it fears a terror attack. The city is on lockdown.
Jimmy Ghazal, 39, a Lebanese man visiting Nice with his family, told ABC News that after the fireworks concluded, he heard people screaming and heard what sounded like gunshots. He saw people run to shelter.
Ghazal said he saw a big truck drive "through all the security.”
“The kids thought it was part of the fireworks," he told ABC News. "We just told them it was part of the fireworks.”
Video showed crowds of screaming people running through the streets in panic. 



http://abcnews.go.com/International/nice...d=40590537

Here’s a chart showing how the percentage of pre-marital conception changed in the 18th and 19th centuries.

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What was the #1 hit on the day you were born (or on some other day?)

My birthday (December 14, 1955):






...I have never been in a coal mine.

It could have been something better than this on the day that Neil Armstrong set foot on the Moon (one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for Mankind):





Don't bother. Gimmick song by a one-hit wonder, and not very good.

It might celebrate something else, like Satan Incarnate blowing his brains out as the Soviet Army closed in on his lair (April 30, 1945):





Much more listenable.

The first one wasn't so great (January 1, 1900):

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/tr...ces-225509

Quote:Hours after suggesting that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg resign from the high court, Donald Trump on Wednesday vowed to swarm her on the high court with “real judges and real legal opinions!”
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee tweeted shortly before 1 a.m. Wednesday that Ginsburg “has embarrassed all” by publicly criticizing the real estate mogul and signaled that she should resign because “[h]er mind is shot...

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/trump-ginsburg-justices-225509#ixzz4ELCZY4cM
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/tr...ces-225509

http://www.gallup.com/poll/193670/hispan...tcome.aspx

Quote:Despite Donald Trump's harsh anti-immigration rhetoric throughout this year's presidential campaign, Hispanics are less likely than either whites or blacks to "strongly agree" that they are afraid of what will happen if their candidate loses. Hispanics also are less likely to agree that the stakes in this year's presidential election are higher than usual...




http://www.gallup.com/poll/193670/hispan...tcome.aspx

I just saw a news report on CNN. The Republican Party in the USA has rejected the Palestinians completely. How will Mahmoud Abbas react? Or Benjamin Netanyahu? And what about the Palestinian people themselves?

An attempt to revive an old T4T forum in the event that much of the American economy goes belly-up again.

Noteworthy failures can include:

1. Deaths of once-prominent businesses, like former Fortune 500 companies. Foreign firms may be included.

Deaths include bankruptcies, liquidation, and forced mergers.

2. Governments in receivership or bankruptcy. That includes state, municipal, and county governments.

3. High-profile organizations such as unions, colleges and universities, symphony orchestras, opera companies, high-profile churches, and foundations.

4. High-end marketers irrespective of size -- let us say Cartier or Gucci if such were so.