The mystery of Millennial politics

[Dan '82]

http://www.pleeps.org/2016/06/23/the-mys...-politics/

Quote:Millennials are politically weird. If it were just that they’re generally more liberal than older folks, that wouldn’t be weird. In fact, that might be a reasonable thing to expect from a racially diverse and less religious group that has been unduly punished by the Great Recession. But the weirdness comes in the detailed pattern of their liberalism—in the issues on which the do (and do not) show unusual liberal tendencies. This pattern, as far as I can tell, is genuinely new and remains almost wholly unexplained.

First I’ll show the pattern. Then I’ll talk about it, though it’ll mostly be about how the usual ideas fail to make sense of it. The chart below shows the extent to which Millennials are more liberal (bars to the left) or occasionally slightly more conservative (bars to the right) on ideology measures and on specific issues in public opinion. The green bars show simple correlations—without taking anything else into consideration, to what extent are Millennials different from the rest of the public? The blue bars show what’s left over in these correlations when the statistical model also takes into account standard demographics such as race, immigrant status, religion, education, and income—to what extent are Millennials different from the rest of the public after taking standard demographics into account...




http://www.pleeps.org/2016/06/23/the-mys...-politics/

[radind]

(06-25-2016, 07:55 PM)Dan Wrote: http://www.pleeps.org/2016/06/23/the-mys...-politics/

Quote:Millennials are politically weird. If it were just that they’re generally more liberal than older folks, that wouldn’t be weird. In fact, that might be a reasonable thing to expect from a racially diverse and less religious group that has been unduly punished by the Great Recession. But the weirdness comes in the detailed pattern of their liberalism—in the issues on which the do (and do not) show unusual liberal tendencies. This pattern, as far as I can tell, is genuinely new and remains almost wholly unexplained.

First I’ll show the pattern. Then I’ll talk about it, though it’ll mostly be about how the usual ideas fail to make sense of it. The chart below shows the extent to which Millennials are more liberal (bars to the left) or occasionally slightly more conservative (bars to the right) on ideology measures and on specific issues in public opinion. The green bars show simple correlations—without taking anything else into consideration, to what extent are Millennials different from the rest of the public? The blue bars show what’s left over in these correlations when the statistical model also takes into account standard demographics such as race, immigrant status, religion, education, and income—to what extent are Millennials different from the rest of the public after taking standard demographics into account...




http://www.pleeps.org/2016/06/23/the-mys...-politics/

I think that the declining influence of Christianity is one of the factors in Millennial views.

[Odin]

I am not at all surprised by Millennials attitudes towards abortion and race, I am surprised and shocked, though, that they are no more liberal than the general population when it comes to big business and seem to be positively right-wing when it comes to welfare.

[Kinser79]

(06-25-2016, 09:38 PM)Odin Wrote: I am not at all surprised by Millennials attitudes towards abortion and race, I am surprised and shocked, though, that they are no more liberal than the general population when it comes to big business and seem to be positively right-wing when it comes to welfare.

I'm not. I think we will be seeing a greater and greater tendency toward national liberalism and cultural libertarianism as the turning progresses. This will only be strengthened once President Trump is inaugurated.

[Odin]

It's so hilarious seeing authoritarians call themselves "cultural libertarians". That's some Orwell-level double-think.

[Odin]

I just want to note that their IS a realignment going on, but Kinser and Tony got the direction wrong. It is the Dems who are becoming "libertarian" and the GOP that is becoming authoritarian, with each party having people on the economic Left and Right.

[Ragnarök_62]

(06-29-2016, 03:42 PM)Odin Wrote: I just want to note that their IS a realignment going on, but Kinser and Tony got the direction wrong. It is the Dems who are becoming "libertarian" and the GOP that is becoming authoritarian, with each party having people on the economic Left and Right.

Whadda ya think about this ?

#J20 stats Wrote:While perusing the internet I found this list that somebody wrote up of all of the arrests that were made at the Antifa and DisruptJ20 riots that were in Washington during the inauguration. The data is all public information from the DC Metro Police. I kept on looking at the ages and wanted to know the distribution of them, so I loaded the data into Microsoft Excel and did some formatting and other work.

The findings? Well, let's just say that the data proves that there were no middle-aged working men at these riots:
~
Age Group
No. Arrestees
17 YO
0
18 YO
7
19 YO
7
20 YO
9
21 YO
12
22 YO
16
23 YO
15
24 YO
26
25 YO
23
26 YO
17
27 YO
14
28 YO
17
29 YO
12
30 YO
8
31 YO
5
32 YO
10
33 YO
6
34 YO
6
35 YO
2
36 YO
1
37 YO
2
38 YO
3
39 YO
2
40 YO
0
41 YO
2
42 YO
0
43 YO
1
44 YO
1
45 YO
1
46 YO
2
47 YO
0
48 YO
0
49 YO
0
50 YO
0
51 YO
0
52 YO
0
53 YO
0
54 YO
0
55 YO
0
56 YO
0
57 YO
0
58 YO
1
59 YO
0
60 YO
1
61 YO
0
62 YO
0
63 YO
0
64 YO
0
65 YO
1


I also calculated with Excel that the average age was 27. Surely the outliers in the higher age groups shifted this up, because as the data shows, the 24 YO group was the most arrested.

I also generated some graphs. They do nothing but reinforce the above.


I wouldn't take the time to do the same with the hometowns, though. Even if I took the time to do it there wouldn't be a way to map them in a timely fashion so that the locations could be visualized and be useful (that's available to me anyway, a research institution could probably have a map generated in 5 seconds). However, I DID notice a lot of DC, PA, and MD entries. You can look at the data yourself if you want to find out more. The list of names reveals no strong nationality, apart from a Greek-sounding, Russian-sounding, and a few Latino-sounding ones. The names also reveal a marked bias towards the boys (in biology anyways, goodness knows what they call themselves).

Just some interesting info.
 

Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

[Odin]

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

[SomeGuy]

(02-02-2017, 08:02 AM)Odin Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

The people who get violent in general are disproportionately young men.

[Warren Dew]

(02-02-2017, 09:46 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 08:02 AM)Odin Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

The people who get violent in general are disproportionately young men.

With some exceptions, like the female Berkeley protester who pepper sprayed a woman for wearing a "Make America Great Again" hat.

[SomeGuy]

(02-02-2017, 04:26 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 09:46 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 08:02 AM)Odin Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

The people who get violent in general are disproportionately young men.

With some exceptions, like the female Berkeley protester who pepper sprayed a woman for wearing a "Make America Great Again" hat.

So, already covered, but yeah.  I really don't think the people excusing this sort of thing are going to like living in a society where this is normalized on both sides.

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-02-2017, 02:46 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: <snip>

Irony ...

I look back at my own trajectory. I was pretty disastisfied during my teen - ~ late 20s period. When I hit my late 20s I entered into a time of what's I'd call unjustified optimism. I was moving up the ladder, at long last, the Grey Ceiling finally had a few openings to crawl through. But by the time I hit 40 I was starting to plateau. Since then it's been survival mode. An inversion of the curve that is shown above.

That's odd... I was a partier in my teen/early 20's and used my body as a pharmacological experiment.  After I got my first real job, I morphed into the usual yuppie . But yeah, middle aged in 4T is sucky.  Perhaps it's time to boomerang to party mode.

[SomeGuy]

(02-02-2017, 05:28 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 02:46 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: <snip>

Irony ...

I look back at my own trajectory. I was pretty disastisfied during my teen - ~ late 20s period. When I hit my late 20s I entered into a time of what's I'd call unjustified optimism. I was moving up the ladder, at long last, the Grey Ceiling finally had a few openings to crawl through. But by the time I hit 40 I was starting to plateau. Since then it's been survival mode. An inversion of the curve that is shown above.

That's odd... I was a partier in my teen/early 20's and used my body as a pharmacological experiment.  After I got my first real job, I morphed into the usual yuppie . But yeah, middle aged in 4T is sucky.  Perhaps it's time to boomerang to party mode.

That's the spirit, Rags!  Double down!  Rock out while your hair falls out! 

[Eric the Green]

(02-02-2017, 09:46 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 08:02 AM)Odin Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

The people who get violent in general are disproportionately young men.

That's quite true; although there were lots of men at the "women's marches" (including moi of course)

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-02-2017, 05:54 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 09:46 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 08:02 AM)Odin Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

The people who get violent in general are disproportionately young men.

That's quite true; although there were lots of men at the "women's marches" (including moi of course)

Inquiring minds want to know.  Did you wear one of those pink hats?

[Odin]

(02-02-2017, 09:46 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 08:02 AM)Odin Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

The people who get violent in general are disproportionately young men.

Good point!

[SomeGuy]

(02-02-2017, 09:08 PM)Odin Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 09:46 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 08:02 AM)Odin Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

The people who get violent in general are disproportionately young men.

Good point!

Thanks, I guess.  I mean, it's a perfectly "dog bites man" type of conclusion...

[Eric the Green]

(02-02-2017, 06:01 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 05:54 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 09:46 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 08:02 AM)Odin Wrote:

(02-01-2017, 11:04 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Sorta as I suspected... The black bloccers are indeed hormone addled males.

Yeah, on Reddit I was pointing that out why there was no violence at the women's march, the people who tend to get violent at protests are young men.

The people who get violent in general are disproportionately young men.

That's quite true; although there were lots of men at the "women's marches" (including moi of course)

Inquiring minds want to know.  Did you wear one of those pink hats?

No, just my 350.org button

[Eric the Green]

(02-02-2017, 05:56 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

Quote:That's quite true; although there were lots of "men" at the women's marches (including moi of course)

There, fixed that for you. 

One of the signs there mentioned that the real men are those defending women's rights and human rights at these marches.

[SomeGuy]

(02-03-2017, 12:44 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-02-2017, 05:56 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:

Quote:That's quite true; although there were lots of "men" at the women's marches (including moi of course)

There, fixed that for you. 

One of the signs there mentioned that the real men are those defending women's rights and human rights at these marches.

Well if it was on a sign, it must be true.