Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability

[pbrower2a]

(07-20-2017, 12:25 PM)The Wonkette Wrote:

(07-18-2017, 05:51 PM)radind Wrote: An anti-christ is anyone who does not believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God.

Really?  I'm an anti-Christ because I'm Jewish?

 
I showed my idea of an Antichrist. Revelation reads like a bad science-fiction story... but the Antichrist in Revelation suggests a demagogue who exploits the hope that people have for a savior but who leads people into evil instead of to a godly way of humane decency.

Robespierre, Lenin, Mussolini, Hitler, Mao, Trujillo, Duvalier, Malan (Apartheid in South Africa), Castro, Qaddafi, Khomeini... dare I say Trump? Donald Trump has more in common with the late Hugo Chavez or Robert Mugabe than with any prior President of the United States. I used to consider Dubya a break from American tradition, but Dubya at least was no religious bigot, he used no violent rhetoric, and he did nothing to enrich himself as President. Donald Trump is evil.

I'll save my calumnies for people who have no moral compass. The Antichrist is also the anti-Moses, the anti-Muhammad, the anti-Buddha, and the anti-Zoroaster. He is also an anti-Washington, anti-Lincoln, and anti-FDR as well.

Beware the Demagogue... and with the blatant exception  of Jared Kushner, Jews did a good job seeing through that horrible man.

[radind]

(07-20-2017, 03:21 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(07-20-2017, 12:25 PM)The Wonkette Wrote:

(07-18-2017, 05:51 PM)radind Wrote: An anti-christ is anyone who does not believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God.

Really?  I'm an anti-Christ because I'm Jewish?

 
I showed my idea of an Antichrist. Revelation reads like a bad science-fiction story... but the Antichrist in Revelation suggests a demagogue who exploits the hope that people have for a savior but who leads people into evil instead of to a godly way of humane decency.

Robespierre, Lenin, Mussolini, Hitler, Mao, Trujillo, Duvalier, Malan (Apartheid in South Africa), Castro, Qaddafi, Khomeini... dare I say Trump? Donald Trump has more in common with the late Hugo Chavez or Robert Mugabe than with any prior President of the United States. I used to consider Dubya a break from American tradition, but Dubya at least was no religious bigot, he used no violent rhetoric,  and he did nothing to enrich himself as President. Donald Trump is evil.

I'll save my calumnies for people who have no moral compass. The Antichrist is also the anti-Moses, the anti-Muhammad, the anti-Buddha, and the anti-Zoroaster. He is also an anti-Washington, anti-Lincoln, and anti-FDR as well.

Beware the Demagogue... and with the blatant exception  of Jared Kushner, Jews did a good job seeing through that horrible man.

My idea of antichrist is from:

1 John 2:22 Who is the liar but he who denies that Jesus is the Christ? This is the antichrist, he who denies the Father and the Son.(ESV)

2 John 1:7 For many deceivers have gone out into the world, those who do not confess the coming of Jesus Christ in the flesh. Such a one is the deceiver and the antichrist.(ESV)

[pbrower2a]

Unless you are going to count Lenin as Jewish due to some of his ancestry, there has been no Jew close to being an Antichrist as the menace in Revelation. By adding to Scripture, Joseph Smith might be on theological grounds, and for offering another Scripture altogether, maybe Muhammad. But if I had to choose between Islam and either Nazism, Ku Kluxism, or Bolshevism, I would choose Islam.

Jews largely recognize that Jesus had too many flaws and did not get the adequate results (a real Jewish Messiah would lead multitudes to Judaism) to be a Messiah.

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-20-2017, 03:42 PM)radind Wrote: My idea of antichrist is from:

1 John 2:22 Who is the liar but he who denies that Jesus is the Christ? This is the antichrist, he who denies the Father and the Son.(ESV)

2 John 1:7 For many deceivers have gone out into the world, those who do not confess the coming of Jesus Christ in the flesh. Such a one is the deceiver and the antichrist.(ESV)

It's been a while since I took the Bible too seriously, but my impression from the old Catholic days was that there would be only one antichrist.  John certainly had different ideas.  Who am I to argue?  During the Reformation era, the usual guess was that the current Pope was the antichrist.  This would not be a bad guess given their morality at the time.

The one time Jesus got really upset was while kicking money people out of the temple.  Anyone who makes a profit from a believer's sincere attempts to communicate with God would be suspect.  When I was in Colorado Springs it was noted that there were two dominant industries, the Air Force (Cheyenne Mountain, several air bases and the Academy) and televangelists.  The Air Force came first, building a massive internet access capability.  The televangelists looked at all the internet access, salivated, and moved in.  Making money off God is a really big time industry out there.  I'm not sure which would be more devastating to the area, incoming warheads going after the Air Force, or the second coming.

The 20th Century certainly produced enough murderous tyrants to be worthy of nomination, but they were mostly secular.  I'd hit them with other insults.  There's no one on the religious side that matches the secular guys.  No real opinion.

[pbrower2a]

(07-20-2017, 05:39 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-20-2017, 03:42 PM)radind Wrote: My idea of antichrist is from:

1 John 2:22 Who is the liar but he who denies that Jesus is the Christ? This is the antichrist, he who denies the Father and the Son.(ESV)

2 John 1:7 For many deceivers have gone out into the world, those who do not confess the coming of Jesus Christ in the flesh. Such a one is the deceiver and the antichrist.(ESV)

It's been a while since I took the Bible too seriously, but my impression from the old Catholic days was that there would be only one antichrist.  John certainly had different ideas.  Who am I to argue?  During the Reformation era, the usual guess was that the current Pope was the antichrist.  This would not be a bad guess given their morality at the time.

The one time Jesus got really upset was while kicking money people out of the temple.  Anyone who makes a profit from a believer's sincere attempts to communicate with God would be suspect.  When I was in Colorado Springs it was noted that there were two dominant industries, the Air Force (Cheyenne Mountain, several air bases and the Academy) and televangelists.  The Air Force came first, building a massive internet access capability.  The televangelists looked at all the internet access, salivated, and moved in.  Making money off God is a really big time industry out there.  I'm not sure which would be more devastating to the area, incoming warheads going after the Air Force, or the second coming.

The 20th Century certainly produced enough murderous tyrants to be worthy of nomination, but they were mostly secular.  I'd hit them with other insults.  There's no one on the religious side that matches the secular guys.  No real opinion.

People that I can imagine having been called the Antichrist at various times:

several Roman Emperors
Attila the Hun
Muhammad
various Ottoman sultans
Jan Hus
Martin Luther
Henry VIII of England
Montezuma
various Popes
Maximilien Robespierre
Napoleon Bonaparte
Joseph Smith (for Mormon-haters)
Karl Marx
Bertrand Russell
Lenin
Mussolini
Stalin
Hitler
Mao
Ho Chi Minh
Pol Pot
Haile Mengistu
Hugh Hefner
Robert Guccione
Larry Flynt
Fidel Castro
Idi Amin
Nicolae Ceausescu
Jim Jones
Ervil LeBaron
David Koresh
Shoko Asahara
Ayatollah Khomeini
Saddam Hussein
Osama bin Laden
Warren Jeffs
Efrain Rios-Montt (Guatemalan dictator)
abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

I have named people for certifiable evil against Christians or Humanity as a whole, people seen as heretics, or real or imagined alleged betrayers of Christian piety. I also named three high-profile pornographers.

[radind]

(07-20-2017, 05:39 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-20-2017, 03:42 PM)radind Wrote: My idea of antichrist is from:

1 John 2:22 Who is the liar but he who denies that Jesus is the Christ? This is the antichrist, he who denies the Father and the Son.(ESV)

2 John 1:7 For many deceivers have gone out into the world, those who do not confess the coming of Jesus Christ in the flesh. Such a one is the deceiver and the antichrist.(ESV)

It's been a while since I took the Bible too seriously, but my impression from the old Catholic days was that there would be only one antichrist.  John certainly had different ideas.  Who am I to argue?  During the Reformation era, the usual guess was that the current Pope was the antichrist.  This would not be a bad guess given their morality at the time.

The one time Jesus got really upset was while kicking money people out of the temple.  Anyone who makes a profit from a believer's sincere attempts to communicate with God would be suspect.  When I was in Colorado Springs it was noted that there were two dominant industries, the Air Force (Cheyenne Mountain, several air bases and the Academy) and televangelists.  The Air Force came first, building a massive internet access capability.  The televangelists looked at all the internet access, salivated, and moved in.  Making money off God is a really big time industry out there.  I'm not sure which would be more devastating to the area, incoming warheads going after the Air Force, or the second coming.

The 20th Century certainly produced enough murderous tyrants to be worthy of nomination, but they were mostly secular.  I'd hit them with other insults.  There's no one on the religious side that matches the secular guys.  No real opinion.

There are other passages in the Bible that many associate with the term 'antichrist', but the term 'antichrist' only appears in 4 verses in 1 John and 2 John.

[Eric the Green]

(07-20-2017, 06:26 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(07-20-2017, 05:39 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(07-20-2017, 03:42 PM)radind Wrote: My idea of antichrist is from:

1 John 2:22 Who is the liar but he who denies that Jesus is the Christ? This is the antichrist, he who denies the Father and the Son.(ESV)

2 John 1:7 For many deceivers have gone out into the world, those who do not confess the coming of Jesus Christ in the flesh. Such a one is the deceiver and the antichrist.(ESV)

It's been a while since I took the Bible too seriously, but my impression from the old Catholic days was that there would be only one antichrist.  John certainly had different ideas.  Who am I to argue?  During the Reformation era, the usual guess was that the current Pope was the antichrist.  This would not be a bad guess given their morality at the time.

The one time Jesus got really upset was while kicking money people out of the temple.  Anyone who makes a profit from a believer's sincere attempts to communicate with God would be suspect.  When I was in Colorado Springs it was noted that there were two dominant industries, the Air Force (Cheyenne Mountain, several air bases and the Academy) and televangelists.  The Air Force came first, building a massive internet access capability.  The televangelists looked at all the internet access, salivated, and moved in.  Making money off God is a really big time industry out there.  I'm not sure which would be more devastating to the area, incoming warheads going after the Air Force, or the second coming.

The 20th Century certainly produced enough murderous tyrants to be worthy of nomination, but they were mostly secular.  I'd hit them with other insults.  There's no one on the religious side that matches the secular guys.  No real opinion.

People that I can imagine having been called the Antichrist at various times:

several Roman Emperors
Attila the Hun
Muhammad
various Ottoman sultans
Jan Hus
Martin Luther
Henry VIII of England
Montezuma
various Popes
Maximilien Robespierre
Napoleon Bonaparte
Joseph Smith (for Mormon-haters)
Karl Marx
Bertrand Russell
Lenin
Mussolini
Stalin
Hitler
Mao
Ho Chi Minh
Pol Pot
Haile Mengistu
Hugh Hefner
Robert Guccione
Larry Flynt
Fidel Castro
Idi Amin
Nicolae Ceausescu
Jim Jones
Ervil LeBaron
David Koresh
Shoko Asahara
Ayatollah Khomeini
Saddam Hussein
Osama bin Laden
Warren Jeffs
Efrain Rios-Montt (Guatemalan dictator)
abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

I have named people for certifiable evil against Christians or Humanity as a whole, people seen as heretics, or real or imagined alleged betrayers of Christian piety. I also named three high-profile pornographers.

And we can add two or three to the list:
Donald J. Trump
Steve Bannon
Bashar al Assad

[pbrower2a]

I missed Charles Manson.

[pbrower2a]

Huge shift in what should be one of the President's best states:

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

Quote:In the now-reliably red state of Arkansas, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is taking a hit.

According to the latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College survey, the nation’s chief executive has gone from a 60%-35% job approval-disapproval rating in February to just 50-47% in July. In April, Trump had a 53%-39% approval rating.

http://katv.com/news/local/president-tru...nsas-50-47

...I don't know whether the self-pardon talk is relevant to this poll. I would expect that stuff to cut President Trump down more where his approval ratings were strongest and less damage (how could this hurt him more in...  New York or even Michigan, where his approvals are already in the toilet?)

It's unfortunate that we do not have polls of such states as Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, or Ohio against which to see how this self-pardon talk looks.  

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  





Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

More telling may be disapproval ratings. Some of these are favorability ratings, which will get an asterisk.

Disapproval ratings:

Map for this theme:



navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

* favorability

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation

[pbrower2a]

We are going to see some interesting statewide polls in the next few weeks as the stench of the self-pardon stuff adds to the nasty scent of rhetorical bulls**t that already fouls the political air.

[pbrower2a]

More on the Arkansas poll:

Quote:According to the latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College survey, the nation’s chief executive has gone from a 60%-35% job approval-disapproval rating in February to just 50-47% in July. In April, Trump had a 53%-39% approval rating.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Donald Trump is doing?

39% Strongly Approve

11% Somewhat Approve

7% Somewhat Disapprove

40% Strongly Disapprove

3%. No Opinion

The statewide survey was conducted on Thursday, July 20 and had 511 Arkansas voter respondents. The poll has a margin of error of 4.3%.

In fact...just before the self-pardon talk began  to hit the airways. 
Trump won Arkansas roughly 61-34 in November. Approval ratings are not completely-reliable proxies for recent or future electoral results, but they can say something. We have an Administration in collapse.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup polling has released overall data on its polls as collected in all 50 states that was used in polling for national trackers from January to July.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/214349/trump-...tates.aspx

This Gallup average for fifty states is priceless for showing data that I do not have for 22 states altogether, including five states with ten or more electoral votes. of those five states, only Illinois was no mystery...  I expected execrable results in polling of Illinois for Donald Trump and found them (36-58). I was very curious about Georgia (16), Indiana (11), Missouri (10), and especially Ohio (18) and now I have averages from January to July.


In any event, a polling average from January to July  is effectively an estimate of a poll from mid-April. But I have polls from as early as January, and no matter how germane the polls from then were they are less germane than this data.

In any event

(1) I get data that I have never had for 22 of 50 states
(2) The data is objective and relevant, even if dated
(3) I can cast off some old data
(4) I can cast off data from polls that I suspect for being from advocacy groups, favorability polls, and polls with confusing categories such as "Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor", or a composite (which I have for Massachusetts, an estimate that I had based upon several questions on specific issues).
(5) I no longer have the excuse "beggars can't be choosers" for accepting a poll from an advocacy group (unless I trust the pollster).    

Is it completely reliable? No, due to obsolescence. As with a road map which is obsolete even as it is published so is a political poll. But if I am in the middle of nowhere and lost I might use a four-year-old road map to get myself out of a tight spot if something happens to the newer map.

Gallup's daily trackers have been going downward for the President, and the latest data are the right ones. If there is any distortion it is that an average from January to July is closer to an average from April than from now.

So here is the Gallup data, with everything but the District of Columbia and the individual districts of Maine and Nebraska:





Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

...If anything, this map may be too sympathetic to President Trump. Gallup tracking polls have trended downward from January, but they didn't start out well for him, either.  I am not going to calibrate polls of the states downward to adjust for this.  Who knows? The Gallup  average for the states between January-July (average presumed to mean "April") may be more relevant in September than now should events go better for him. I have at most seat-of-the-pants ideas of what may have gone on in states with no other polls (yes, President Trump is in trouble in Indiana and Ohio -- probably worse than this map shows) but that is not how I show polling data. I'm showing polling data and not my estimates.

Besides, you may not like my 'intuitive' estimates, and you would have good cause (my extreme partisanship shows in my prose elsewhere).

I do not dispute Gallup data; I simply put it in different categories that I consider more relevant to predictions of electoral results. 

Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

This becomes a start, and hardly a last word. There are more recent polls, and more relevant ones. Most of them will look worse than what I have on the map.

[Bob Butler 54]

(07-24-2017, 01:45 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Back in the 1980s, the SJ Mercury had a piece in one of its Sunday editions about CW2. In their scenario the New Confederacy was "El Dorado." It consisted of part of the Midwest, all of Dixie and all of the non Coastal Western US. That was the demographic reality of the 1980s. Well, El Dorado has shrunk some over the past 30+ years. But you can still see it on these maps.

This still seems urban / rural to me. It seems rather obvious that a culture optimized for one part of the country won't fit the other well. Alas, there are lots of rural areas near the coasts, and urban areas in the middle. [irony] Meanwhile, the focus is so much on 'fixing' or 'defeating' that other part of the country which is broke and misguided, while this part of the country is ever so full of common sense. [/irony]

OK. I'm half way into that trap too. I see the unraveling memes as having being over done. I see the division of wealth too large. I see people thinking of themselves and their own group rather than the country. I also see coastal folk forcing their way of life on rural folk, and on certain issues the opposite is tried. I also see folk genuinely believing in the unraveling memes, trying ever so hard to find politicians that can make them work. How does one respect things while changing them?

At this point, I'd rather find out what each group really thinks it needs while avoiding tripping too much over the other people. Alas, no, there is too much a lock into a confrontational pattern which has been ever so useful to the Establishment. The real and perpetual problem may be less urban against rural than division of wealth.

While if you stick with state boundaries you get something like El Dorado, if you look at counties the urban v rural divide become obvious. The tactical battle lines aren't nearly as clear and obvious as in the first Civil War era. I'm also not seeing any alleged pre Civil War II violence escalate. It's easy to put off the violence if one ends up in power every four to eight years. If we're going to do more than win a term or two with one side or the other dominant, the need to listen and respect becomes real.

[pbrower2a]

The first two polls after the self-pardon talk -- California and Nevada, together 61 electoral votes.


Former President (and Governor of California about fifty years ago) Ronald Reagan must be spinning in his grave.

Quote:PPIC - California:

Approve 25%
Disapprove 71%

Only 68% of California Republicans and 33% of Independents approve of Trump.

Source

Donald Trump must remind many Californians of their landlords, arguably the least-beloved of entrepreneurs to middle-class people. But this may be the first statewide poll in the wake of the 'self-pardon' talk.  If this is not a fluke, then any new polls of such states as Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington could be going into the 'deep red' category.

This "71" is so far the highest disapproval that I have seen of the President in any state, tying the Gallup composite from January to July in Vermont. I'm not sure that a current poll of Vermont would be any better for the President Trump. But Vermont gets polled little... three electoral votes and dull politics is less interesting than 55 electoral votes and dull politics.

neighboring Nevada (PPP):

Quote:PPP - Nevada:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

Heller's numbers are awful: 29/56

For one of the usual battleground states, Nevada gets polled rather little. Remember: this poll is newer than a reasonable estimate of the Gallup composite that averages (as I understand) from April.  Most polls (barring favorability polls, polls by special interests, internal polls, and polls with the suspect "electric green fried potatoes" wording will supplant the Gallup composites which are older and of declining relevance. I am no longer using the excuse 'Beggars can't be choosers' to accept just about any poll. The Nevada poll is not a category-changer. It is still consistent with Trump losing about 3% support since April, which is still within the range of error.   

Nevada, although extremely urban, is a low-income state with lower-than-average educational achievement, so it should be more amenable to President Trump than such states as Colorado and Virginia. But Trump is doing badly in Nevada.     






Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

[pbrower2a]

Oh -- there are now no 'favorability' polls, and I will include none indefinitely. I will accept polls that ask about approval. Letter grades A, B, C (C is basically undecided), D, and either E or F ("E" is failure in Michigan, and "F" is failure in most other states) will be acceptable.

[pbrower2a]

(07-28-2017, 10:46 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(07-27-2017, 04:48 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: The first two polls after the self-pardon talk -- California and Nevada, together 61 electoral votes.


Former President (and Governor of California about fifty years ago) Ronald Reagan must be spinning in his grave.

Quote:PPIC - California:

Approve 25%
Disapprove 71%

Only 68% of California Republicans and 33% of Independents approve of Trump.

Source

Donald Trump must remind many Californians of their landlords, arguably the least-beloved of entrepreneurs to middle-class people. But this may be the first statewide poll in the wake of the 'self-pardon' talk.  If this is not a fluke, then any new polls of such states as Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington could be going into the 'deep red' category.

This "71" is so far the highest disapproval that I have seen of the President in any state, tying the Gallup composite from January to July in Vermont. I'm not sure that a current poll of Vermont would be any better for the President Trump. But Vermont gets polled little... three electoral votes and dull politics is less interesting than 55 electoral votes and dull politics.

neighboring Nevada (PPP):

Quote:PPP - Nevada:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

Heller's numbers are awful: 29/56

For one of the usual battleground states, Nevada gets polled rather little. Remember: this poll is newer than a reasonable estimate of the Gallup composite that averages (as I understand) from April.  Most polls (barring favorability polls, polls by special interests, internal polls, and polls with the suspect "electric green fried potatoes" wording will supplant the Gallup composites which are older and of declining relevance. I am no longer using the excuse 'Beggars can't be choosers' to accept just about any poll. The Nevada poll is not a category-changer. It is still consistent with Trump losing about 3% support since April, which is still within the range of error.   

Nevada, although extremely urban, is a low-income state with lower-than-average educational achievement, so it should be more amenable to President Trump than such states as Colorado and Virginia. But Trump is doing badly in Nevada.     






Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

What Trump reminds us of is a bad combination of the type of obnoxious grandiose "Noo Yawkah" who sometimes relos here solely for the weather, but is a real odd out culturally, and, a caudillo of the type stereotypically found South of the border.

See, Reagan, on the other hand, even though a (Midwestern) transplant himself, became very comfortable with the Western US ways. In our hinterlands and outright outlands, we have an ethos that is simultaneously conservative and mindful of personal freedom. It is an extremely live and let live ethos, not unlike the 1960s hippies. Any Right wing politician seeking to make headway out here needs to mind this. Trump clearly has not, especially of late.

Speaking of odd outs, WTF with the northern intermountain states. But that I ascribe to the White Power types up there. They have become Kremlin bootlickers due to their distorted belief that Russia is their ally vis a vis White Power. They have too much Pat Buchanan on the brain.

With the composite data from Connecticut, I can finally say what I have assumed for a while:  the more that people get to know Donald Trump, the less they like him. The "59" in Connecticut, the "58" in New Jersey, and the "62" in New York suggest that where he is best known he is least liked. The "71" for Vermont  suggest that Donald Trump is the sort of person who goes on a "fall color" tour from New York and makes a loud, obnoxious fool of himself. Vermonters enjoy having out-of-state tourists stopping in their restaurants and stores  that might shutter without such trade -- but someone like Trump makes staff miserable.

I have suggested that to Californians, Trump  often suggests a landlord.

Were he at all effective as President, then he would have positive approvals in states that he barely lost (New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Nevada, and arguably Colorado and Virginia... but he is gaining nothing there.

The execrable ratings in Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest promises made and promises broken.

I'd guess that disapproval of President Trump is over 80% in the District of Columbia. Assuming that the Congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska go as their states go at-large,  I can count electoral votes by disapproval rating based either upon the Gallup composite or a poll from May or later...

Listing the electoral votes available at levels of disapproval for the President from the lowest levels to the highest

EVB  DSR CHG   EVA   states
   
000   36   11     011    ND WV WY
006   39   16     027    AL OK
022   41   03     030    MT
030   42   21     051    ID KS TN
051   43   23     075    KY LA NE SD
075   44   09     084    SC
084   46   16     100    MO MS
100   47   06     106    AR
106   48   32     138    AK  IN OH
138   50   37     175    GA NC UT
175   51   77     252    FL TX  WI
252   52   17     269    AZ IA
269   53   06     275    NV
275   55   08     283    ME RI
270   56   15     298    DE NM OR
295   57   31     329    CO MN VA
317   58   34     363    IL NJ
347   59   24     387    CO HI WA
383   60   04     391    NH 
387   61   16     407    MI
403   62   49     456    NY PA
456   64   10     466    MD
466   66   11     477    MA
477   71   58     535    CA VT
535   80   03     538    DC

EVB -- electoral votes BEFORE winning the state(s)
DIS -- disapproval rating
CHG -- change in the number of electoral votes
EVA -- electoral votes AFTER winning states in this category
'80' is my guess for the District of Columbia.

This is how the states 'fall' if I  use disapproval ratings for the President to predict which states switch from an unnamed opponent to Donald Trump. He must win states in which his disapproval rating is 43% just to avoid a loss like those of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. For him to lose that badly he would have to lose even more credibility.

The elder Bush got only 168 electoral votes in 1992. He wasn't a really-awful President; he just couldn't convince people that he had any idea of what to do in a second term. To avoid losing that badly, President Trump would have to win some states in which 50% of the people disapprove of his performance. In a close election, Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter with 30 electoral votes short of a win. He would need to win states in which his disapproval is now at 51%.

By winning every state in which his disapproval rating is 52% he would get a tie in the Electoral College. House delegations would then decide who wins unless the President can pick off the Second Congressional District of Maine.

To win roughly as Dubya did in 2004 (284 electoral votes) he would have to win states in which his disapproval rating is at 55%.

[pbrower2a]

Three national polls



Gallup [size=8pt](August 1st)[/size]


[size=8pt](August 1st)[/size]

Approve 36% [size=7pt](-1)[/size]
Disapprove 60% [size=7pt](+1)[/size]
[/quote]



Quinnipiac poll:

Approve 33% (-7)
Disapprove 61% (+6)

All-time low.

Quote: President Donald Trump plunges to a new low as American voters disapprove 61 - 33 percent of the job he is doing, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. White men are divided 47 - 48 percent and Republicans approve 76 - 17 percent. White voters with no college degree, a key part of the president's base, disapprove 50 - 43 percent.

Today's approval rating is down from a 55 - 40 percent disapproval in a June 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is President Trump's lowest approval and highest disapproval number since he was inaugurated.

American voters say 54 - 26 percent that they are embarrassed rather than proud to have Trump as president. Voters say 57 - 40 percent he is abusing the powers of his office and say 60 - 36 percent that he believes he is above the law.

President Trump is not levelheaded, say 71 - 26 percent of voters, his worst score on that character trait. Voter opinions of most other Trump qualities drop to new lows:

• 62 - 34 percent that he is not honest;
  
• 63 - 34 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
  
• 59 - 39 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
  
• 58 - 39 percent that he is a strong person;
  
• 55 - 42 percent that he is intelligent;
  
• 63 - 34 percent that he does not share their values.
  

"It's hard to pick what is the most alarming number in the troubling trail of new lows for President Donald Trump," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Strong disapproval : 55% in general, 59% for the critical demographic of   educated white people.


Rasmussen continues to show Trump reaching new lows:

Approve: 38
Disapprove: 62

Strongly Approve: 25
Strongly Disapprove: 50

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ex_history

[Bob Butler 54]

(08-02-2017, 11:10 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: It's time to impeach the bastard.

Thinking back to Watergate, Nixon resigned when his lies became so obvious and self serving that the Republicans in Congress could no longer plausibly support him. They asked him to resign. I don't see us as near reaching that point yet. Until we do, the Democrats as a minority party would just be wasting their time.

Sure, a few fire breathers could talk the talk early and perhaps look good someday, but I don't anticipate the official process going far yet.

[pbrower2a]

(08-02-2017, 11:10 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(08-02-2017, 09:11 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Three national polls



Gallup [size=8pt](August 1st)[/size]


[size=8pt](August 1st)[/size]

Approve 36% [size=7pt](-1)[/size]
Disapprove 60% [size=7pt](+1)[/size]

Quinnipiac poll:

Approve 33% (-7)
Disapprove 61% (+6)

All-time low.

Quote: President Donald Trump plunges to a new low as American voters disapprove 61 - 33 percent of the job he is doing, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. White men are divided 47 - 48 percent and Republicans approve 76 - 17 percent. White voters with no college degree, a key part of the president's base, disapprove 50 - 43 percent.

Today's approval rating is down from a 55 - 40 percent disapproval in a June 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is President Trump's lowest approval and highest disapproval number since he was inaugurated.

American voters say 54 - 26 percent that they are embarrassed rather than proud to have Trump as president. Voters say 57 - 40 percent he is abusing the powers of his office and say 60 - 36 percent that he believes he is above the law.

President Trump is not levelheaded, say 71 - 26 percent of voters, his worst score on that character trait. Voter opinions of most other Trump qualities drop to new lows:

• 62 - 34 percent that he is not honest;
  
• 63 - 34 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
  
• 59 - 39 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
  
• 58 - 39 percent that he is a strong person;
  
• 55 - 42 percent that he is intelligent;
  
• 63 - 34 percent that he does not share their values.
  

"It's hard to pick what is the most alarming number in the troubling trail of new lows for President Donald Trump," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Strong disapproval : 55% in general, 59% for the critical demographic of   educated white people.


Rasmussen continues to show Trump reaching new lows:

Approve: 38
Disapprove: 62

Strongly Approve: 25
Strongly Disapprove: 50

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c...ex_history

It's time to impeach the bastard.
[/quote]

I had a typo -- it's supposed to be 59% disapproval on Quinnipiac for 'the critical demographic of educated white people'...

[pbrower2a]

For comparison again: