03-07-2018, 02:54 PM
Breaking News --- Israel's Knesset has Just passed a referendum stripping Jerusalem's Palestinians of their residency. Israel is Finally taking the gloves OFF. This is a glorious day for western civilization.
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03-07-2018, 03:16 PM
(03-07-2018, 02:54 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Breaking News --- Israel's Knesset has Just passed a referendum The law only applies to "Palestinians with ties to terrorist groups, convicted terrorists, would-be attackers, or those convicted of treason." https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-memb...r-new-law/
03-07-2018, 11:29 PM
*** 8-Mar-18 World View -- US-backed Kurds stop fighting ISIS in order to fight Turkey in Afrin
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** US-backed Kurds stop fighting ISIS in order to fight Turkey in Afrin **** ![[Image: g180307b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180307b.jpg) Turkish-backed FSA forces are fighting Kurds in Afrin, who will be helped by Kurdish forces in Manbij traveling to Afrin (AFP) The war in Syria escalated again on Tuesday when militias in the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fighting ISIS in eastern Syria announced that most of their fighters would abandon the first against ISIS, and would travel to Afrin to oppose Turkish-supported forces seeking to eject the YPG forces there. The YPG forces in eastern Syria said that 1,700 fighters would stop fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in eastern Syria, and would move to Afrin to fight the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA). The FSA is trying to take control of Afrin from the YPG. The so-called "Operation Olive Branch" was launched by Turkey on January 20, and was supposed to take control of Afrin within a few days. After that, the original plan was that the FSA would then move east, and similarly take control of Manbij from the YPG. It was never clear how that would work, since there are about 2,000 US special forces in Manbij. At any rate, Turkey is still bogged down in Afrin, although Turkish officials say that victory is close. There are a couple of reasons that analysts have been giving to explain the problems that Turkey is facing. First, it's said that the YPG forces are battle-hardened from having fought ISIS. And second, it's said that Turkey's army has been decimated by the massive firings of army leaders following the botched coup by the army in June 2016. Whatever the reason, the fact that 1,700 YPG fighters from the Euphrates River Valley are coming to Afrin to fight the Turkish forces can only add to Turkey's problems. Turkey is blaming the United States, and is demanding that the US block the YPG forces from going to Afrin, but it's far from clear that the US has the ability to stop them. CNN and AFP and Al-Monitor and Reuters **** **** Reports of Free Syrian Army atrocities on Kurds in Afrin **** Reports are mounting that the Turkish-back Arab militias in the Free Syrian Army (FSA) are committing atrocities in Afrin, taking revenge against the YPG Kurds for the latter's atrocities against innocent Arabs during last year's YPG fight against ISIS. Kurdish forces are said to have razed a number of Arab-majority villages in eastern Syria during the clashes with ISIS. One Arab is quoted as saying, "They killed dozens of members of our extended family, bulldozed our homes and joked that they would plant potatoes there." Now that Kurdish forces from the east are traveling to fight Arab militias in Afrin who are looking for revenge, there will probably be plenty of atrocities on both sides. As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Gulf News and Guardian (London) Related Articles
**** **** Mahmoud Abbas may step down as Palestinian Authority president **** There have been sporadic stories for years that Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas was in declining health and would soon step down. Recently, those reports seem to have become more serious, and there's a succession battle brewing among the Palestinians. Mahmoud Abbas, 82, was born in 1935, and lived through World War II and the bloody wars between Jews and Arabs that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Having lived though that horrific war, Abbas has been a major force in maintaining a semblance of peace between the Palestinians and Israelis. However, Abbas has been seen as increasingly irrelevant by young Palestinians, who see that nothing has changed during the over 20 years since the Palestinians and Israelis signed the Oslo peace accords, Many young Palestinians, as well as many young Israelis, have no fear of an all-out war with each other. Abbas himself has become increasingly belligerent in recent weeks, after the United States recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. There have been stories of a new peace plan being drawn up by the Donald Trump administration, but in view of the irrelevance of Abbas, even if he agreed to it the vast majority of Palestinians probably would not. If Abbas is replaced as PA president, the successor would almost certainly be much younger, and would probably have the same attitudes as the young Palestinians who have no fear of all-out war with Israel. Al-Monitor Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Operation Olive Branch, Syria, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Afrin, Manbij, Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Israel, Oslo peace accords Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
03-08-2018, 11:37 PM
*** 9-Mar-18 World View -- Portions of Indian-governed Kashmir shut down after deadly clashes
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Portions of Indian-governed Kashmir shut down after deadly clashes **** ![[Image: g180308b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180308b.jpg) Complete shutdown of portions of Shopian district in Kashmir (PakToday) Portions of Indian-government Kashmir were completely shut down for a fourth day on Thursday, because of the first major deadly clashes of the year, as winter ends and spring approaches. The forced shutdown affected roads, shops, businesses, schools and colleges in the Shopian district of Indian-governed Kashmir. Six people were killed -- two militants and four civilians -- in a shootout that took place at 8 pm Sunday in the Shopian district. According to the army statement, the army responded to firing from the militants by firing back, and said that three of the four dead civilians were "overground workers" (OGWs), a term commonly used in Kashmir for non-combatants who provide logistical support for militant groups. The killings sparked thousands of people to arrive in Shopian to protest, resulting in stone-throwing clashes with the police, although there were no more deaths. The protesters were particularly infuriated by the "overground workers" characterization of the civilians, who they claim were innocent bystanders. Most violent clashes in Kashmir occur during the hot summer months. Kashmir has been relatively quiet for the last few months, as protests have been minimized by the bitter winter code. Even so, according to an estimate, 45 people including 15 security personnel, 19 militants and 10 civilians have lost their lives since January. With an estimated 200 or more active militants in Kashmir, it's expected that the will be a new surge of violence as summer again approaches. Kashmir Reader and Scroll (India) and Kashmir Observer and Ary News TV (Pakistan) **** **** Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) becomes leading jihadist group in Kashmir **** As we've written in the past, there are three major Pakistan-sponsored jihadist groups operating in Kashmir, and recent events indicate that the relative importance of the three is shifting. The oldest is Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based terrorist group that was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. LeT was the perpetrator of the horrific "26/11" three-day attack on Mumbai in 2008, killing 166 people and wounding hundreds more. ( "After Mumbai's '26/11' nightmare finally ends, India - Pakistan relations face crisis" from 2008) According to a report by Indian police, LeT is reducing its operations in Kashmir, because its leader, Hafiz Saeed, is coming under international scrutiny. Hafiz Saeed masterminded the 2008 Mumbai attack. Pakistan held him in house arrest for several years, but refused to bring him to trial. Then in November of last year, Pakistan freed him with no trial and all charges dropped. As he left the court a free man, he was greeted by chanting crowds and rose petals. The result, according to the police report, is "increased and repeated international scrutiny of LeT and its chief, [and the] recent development of Pakistan declaring Hafiz Saeed a terrorist under global pressure." The second Kashmir jihadist group is the indigenous Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM), a Kashmir-based terrorist group that has been leading the anti-Indian stone-throwing riots of the past two years, triggered by the July 8 2016 death of HM leader Burhan Wani in a gunfight with the Indian army. However, HM has been less effective recently because it's essentially been decapitated, with two of its leaders killed. The third jihadist group is Pakistan-sponsored Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). JeM had little of no presence in Kashmir in 2016, but it's been the main perpetrator of terrorist attacks lately, with four terrorist attacks in the last eight months. JeM has been successful in recruiting young Kashmiris and using them for suicide missions, making JeM the current leader in Pakistan-sponsored Kashmir carnage. Indian Express and India.com and LiveMint (India, 9-Oct-2017) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Shopian, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Mumbai, Hafiz Saeed, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), Hizbul Mujahedeen (HM), Burhan Wani, Pakistan, Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
03-09-2018, 11:48 PM
*** 10-Mar-18 World View -- The Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting hinges on a decision that Kim has already made
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kenya's bitter rivals, Kenyatta and Odinga, become 'brothers' as Tillerson arrives **** ![[Image: g180309b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180309b.jpg) Uhuru Kenyatta (L) and Raila Odinga shake hands, smile, and call each other 'my brother.' Odinga particularly seems to me to be gritting his teeth, as if he doesn't want to be there. (Standard Media) In a show of high theatre on Friday, Kenya's president Uhuru Kenyatta, a leader of the dominant Kikuyu tribe, met with the opposition leader, Raila Odinga, who is also a leader of the Luo tribe. They surprised everyone by shaking hands at a press conference, and calling each other "my brother." Gone was the acrimony of last year's election, which had to be rerun because Odinga accused Kenyatta of rigging the election, with violence that led to dozens of deaths. Gone was the vitriol and post-election violence of 2008, when Odinga lost to another Kikuyu, and the two tribes had weeks of bloody violence resulting in thousands of deaths. At Friday's love-fest, Odinga said: <QUOTE>"The time has come for us to confront and resolve our differences. As we fight ostensibly to save ourselves from each other, the reality is, we need to save our children from ourselves."<END QUOTE> Kenyatta said: <QUOTE>"We had extensive discussions on matters Kenya and we had an agreement that the country is bigger than any of us. We have a responsibility as leaders to discuss our differences and what ails our country so that we get solutions. Elections come and go, but Kenya remains. Our future as a country cannot be dictated by elections. Together we want to build a united, harmonious nation where nobody feels left behind. We want to formulate a new beginning and have a country where we can differ in political alignments but united in matters Kenya. We have moved from year to year, election to election, never pausing to deal with the challenges that our diversity was always going to pose to our efforts to create a prosperous and united nation. Consequently, the ties that bind us are today under the severest stress."<END QUOTE> Kenyatta and Odinga have previously said that they would never talk to each other and shake hands, and they both refused to do so at a funeral earlier this year. So what changed on Friday? Late Friday, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson began a three-day visit to Kenya. Tillerson has been very critical of last year's election in Kenya, and has been calling for a reconciliation between the two leaders. Kenya is one of the biggest recipients of economic aid from the US. Last year, the country received $1.1 billion in economic aid, and aid for other programs such as HIV and Aids management, energy and agriculture. The US has also provided hundreds of millions more, related to the fight against terrorism. Barack Obama, whose father was from the Luo tribe, had also worked hard to promote reconciliation in Kenya when he was president. Tillerson seemed very pleased to see Kenyatta and Odinga shake hands: <QUOTE>"This is a very positive step in our view, and while we know addressing Kenya's ethnic and political divisions will take some time and effort, today both of these men showed great leadership in coming together. All the credit goes to the two leaders."<END QUOTE> Kenya's last generational crisis war was the Mau-Mau rebellion that climaxed in 1956. At that time, Kenya was a British colony, and the Mau-Mau rebellion was largely a fight against the colonists, with Luos and the Kikuyus fighting on the same side. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes, and so now the Luos and Kikuyus are enemies of each other. The 2008 violence was not a full-scale war, and it fizzled quickly. But today, nine years later, a new generational crisis war is overdue, and with the British colonists long gone, it's feared that there will be a new full-scale crisis war between the Kikuyu, Kalenjin and Luo tribes. Standard Media (Kenya) and The Nation (Kenya) and The Star (Kenya) and Standard Media (Kenya) and The Star (Kenya) Related Articles
**** **** The Donald Trump - Kim Jong-un meeting hinges on a decision that Kim has already made **** ![[Image: g180309c.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180309c.jpg) North Korea's Army of Beauties (Korea Herald) There are many questions being discussed in the mainstream media about the meeting between president Donald Trump and North Korea's president Kim Jong-un. What are the time and place? Who has the advantage? Did Kim agree because of Trump's military threats? Did Kim agree because of the sanctions? Or is the whole thing just a publicity stunt? Reports are that Trump immediately accepted the invitation to meet without preconditions. I thought that this was a good negotiating ploy, since it's quite possible that Kim expected Trump to demand major preconditions first, such as the release of Americans being held captive in North Korea, and some steps taken towards denuclearization. I thought that Trump's instant acceptance without preconditions would have been a surprise to Kim, who would then be faced with backing out of the meeting, or facing a meeting where he'd be lectured to by Donald Trump. However, by Friday Trump backed off, and specified that some preconditions would have to be met, namely some "concrete and verifiable actions" in the direction of denuclearization. Apparently, Trump was responding to widespread criticism that he'd given Kim something (agreeing to a meeting), while getting nothing in return. I don't agree with that analysis, but it's widely believed. There's actually one and only one relevant question, and it has to do with a decision that has undoubtedly already been made by Kim: Has Kim's government already decided to give up its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile development? There are two possibilities:
Now, I'm one of those people who believe that there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Kim is ready to give up nuclear and missile development. But there is one scenario where I can imagine that it might happen, and it's something that I discussed during the Olympics in "12-Feb-18 World View -- What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics?" The North sent a huge delegation of hundreds of people to Seoul for the Olympics game. They included all the athletes, Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo-jong, and the North's "Army of Beauties" cheerleading squad. During their visit, the girls in this "Army of Beauties" were carefully monitored, but they would still have had some opportunity to compare life in the South versus life in the North. Upon returning home, they would have told their boyfriends, husbands and fathers how much better life is in the South, and asked "Why don't we do what the South is doing?" After that, hundreds or thousands of people in North Korea's capital Pyongyang might have been asking themselves the same question. I realize that this whole scenario sounds fantastical, but it's happened before, and I personally remember it well. As I described in the article referenced above, this is exactly what happened when Russia's Boris Yeltsin visited the United States in 1989. He visited a supermarket, and was so affected by what he saw that he gave up communism. Here's how he explained it in his autobiography: <QUOTE>When I saw those shelves crammed with hundreds, thousands of cans, cartons and goods of every possible sort, for the first time I felt quite frankly sick with despair for the Soviet people. That such a potentially super-rich country as ours has been brought to a state of such poverty! It is terrible to think of it."<END QUOTE> So very strange things sometimes happen. This scenario is so far-fetched that I would consider it completely impossible, except for the fact that I've seen it happen before. At any rate, Kim's government will already know whether it's decided to give up its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development, so it already knows the likely outcome of the meeting with Trump. We probably won't know for some time to come. Washington Post and Korea Herald (11-Jan) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta, Kikuyu, Raila Odinga, Luo, Rex Tillerson, Barack Obama, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Russia, Boris Yeltsin Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
03-10-2018, 02:53 AM
Strange things can happen. How stable is the hold of Kim Jong-Un on power? Could the People's Republic of China have put pressure on him to make some efforts to give up a nuclear program that poses real dangers to China?
A rumor has it that the South Koreans can break a captured agent in two days. The second day features a trip to a South Korean supermarket, which might be a banality to South Koreans but near paradise for North Koreans. I have seen the future, and it works. It is called South Korea.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
03-10-2018, 10:51 AM
(03-10-2018, 02:53 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Strange things can happen. How stable is the hold of Kim Jong-Un One of the questions that keep coming up is -- whose side will Korea be on? We can line up Japan, Philippines and Vietnam on the side of the West, and Laos and Cambodia on China's side. But whose side will Korea be on? The hatred between the South Korean and Chinese people became apparent during the whole THAAD situation, when the Chinese boycotted South Korean goods, and shut down parts of South Korea's economy. Despite the bluster, North Korea really has nothing against America. The Korean War was really a proxy war between the US and China. The North and South Korean people really have nothing against each other, except among the elites in Pyongyang. So Korea's only real enemy (besides Japan) is China. So I believe you're right that the North Korea nuclear program really poses a major danger to China. This also explains why China has so little influence on North Korea, except through extortion. (03-10-2018, 02:53 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > A rumor has it that the South Koreans can break a captured agent I wasn't aware of the rumor you mention, though it makes sense. The real question is whether the "Army of Beauties" were permitted to see anything of South Korea except their own dorm rooms.
03-10-2018, 11:23 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2018, 11:53 AM by Cynic Hero '86.)
(03-10-2018, 10:51 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(03-10-2018, 02:53 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Strange things can happen. How stable is the hold of Kim Jong-Un Xenakis, You are ignorant of the actual situation. Laos and Cambodia are Vietnamese satellites not Chinese ones. The Current Cambodian Prime Minister who has effectively been dictator since the late 1990s was originally installed by Vietnam and is frequently accused of Being a Vietnamese puppet by opposition forces. The Laotian Government has a permanent grant of full military access to Vietnamese forces since the 1970s, there is no equivalent agreement with China. Also Vietnam and China have been enemies for centuries with the modern enmity restarting immediately after the end of the Vietnam war, NOT JohnX's claim that china began threatening Vietnam only after 1994 in move directed more against the latter's rapprochement with the west. In fact China and Vietnam went to full-scale war in 1979 and had medium-scale border fights between 1980 and 1990. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of...since_1945 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Laos https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Cambodia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hun_Sen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietn...E2%80%9390 Within the west Xenakis, you keep assuming that the boomer concept of what is and what isn't western and what constitute's being "western" would be what westerners would fight for. In fact as almost every Xer and Millie you've talked to keeps trying to explain to you; the young has nothing but contempt for the 1968er values.
03-10-2018, 02:10 PM
(03-10-2018, 11:23 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Xenakis, You are ignorant of the actual situation. Laos and North Vietnam is a satellite of China, so by your logic, they're all satellites of China, and so they must all be allied with China. I'm not even sure what you mean by "satellite," but no matter what it means, it certainly does not mean that if A is a satellite of B, then A and B will be allied in the next generational crisis war. One thing's for sure: You can't figure out what's going on by quoting six wikipedia articles. Here's an India Times article that sorts out some of the relationships of ASEAN countries with India and China, and is a lot more sensible than wikipedia: https://blogs.economictimes.indiatimes.c...-strategy/ In the case of Cambodia, what you need to do is go back and analyze the genocide of the 1970s, where 2 million people were killed out of 8 million. Once you understand where the descendants of the two belligerent populations are today, and the attitudes of the younger generations, only then can you figure out what Cambodia is going to do in terms of alliances. It's even possible that Cambodia will be split, with the two groups who fought against each other in the 1970s having their children fighting against each other again. It really is tiring that you always talk about boomers. It makes you look like a total idiot, which you are.
03-10-2018, 02:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2018, 02:33 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
(03-10-2018, 02:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: North Vietnam is a satellite of China, so by your logic, they're all First of all Xenakis, you moron, there hasn't been a country called North Vietnam since 1975. The Hanoi government is definitely NOT a Chinese satellite. The Hanoi government waged war on China in 1979 and waged war in Cambodia throughout the 1980s and early 1990s in direct defiance of China. There is no way whatsoever that the Vietnamese government is in any way a satellite of China.
03-10-2018, 02:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2018, 02:46 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
(03-10-2018, 02:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: the genocide of the 1970s, where 2 million people were killed out of 8 Yes and the Hun Sen government would be allied with Vietnam and the Cambodian opposition would try to ally with China or some other historic adversary of Vietnam (such as thailand). The Hmong may also attempt an alliance with the Chinese.
03-10-2018, 02:44 PM
(03-10-2018, 02:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: It really is tiring that you always talk about boomers. It makes you Boomers ruined the west, turning nations of conquerors into multicultural metrosexuals, Xers and Millies have gradually wised up to the boomers selfishness and globalistic decadence. Xers and Millies have no obligations to respect the boomer values. You boomer globalists can't take no for an answer: Examples; the world has told you "you can't have Syria" yet you globalists still keep seeking the overthrow of Assad. The 1968er values are contrary to human nature. Boomer tyranny will be overthrown and an American Empire and European nation-state nationalism will be created. The young have rejected human rights and democracy.
03-10-2018, 02:53 PM
(03-10-2018, 02:32 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > First of all Xenakis, you moron, there hasn't been a country Wow!!!!!! I didn't know that!!! I thought that there was still a North Vietnam!!!! Thanks for filling me in!!! North Vietnam (Vietnamese Kingdom) was originally populated by ethnic Chinese, while South Vietnam (Champa Kingdom) was originally populated by Polynesian settlers from Indonesia and Malaysia. It's this ethnic difference that has fueled multiple generational crisis civil wars, including the war of the 1960s-70s. ** 18-May-14 World View -- China evacuates 3,000 citizens from Vietnam, fearing more violence ** Generational History of Vietnam ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140518 If you want to understand what's going on, then you have to do some real research, not just read wikipedia articles.
03-10-2018, 02:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2018, 03:05 PM by Cynic Hero '86.)
(03-10-2018, 02:53 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(03-10-2018, 02:32 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > First of all Xenakis, you moron, there hasn't been a country No, you are still an idiot on this issue because it was the Hanoi government, NOT the South Vietnamese populace, who fueled the Sino-Vietnamese war and the Sino-Vietnamese border conflict as well as the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia. The Current nationalism emanates from Hanoi, not Saigon. The US only has reconciled with Vietnam in the last few years; During the 1980s the Vietnamese were supported by the soviets while the opposition was supported by both China and the US. Regarding the US, American foreign policy since the 1860s has been consistently supporting the so-called "open door" in both China and east Asia in general. America should abandon the open-door policy, all of our Asian wars since at least the Spanish-American war have derived in some extent from maintaining this "open door".
03-10-2018, 08:54 PM
(03-10-2018, 02:59 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: No, you are still an idiot on this issue because it was the Hanoi government, NOT the South Vietnamese populace, who fueled the Sino-Vietnamese war and the Sino-Vietnamese border conflict as well as the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia. The Current nationalism emanates from Hanoi, not Saigon. The US only has reconciled with Vietnam in the last few years; During the 1980s the Vietnamese were supported by the soviets while the opposition was supported by both China and the US. Regarding the US, American foreign policy since the 1860s has been consistently supporting the so-called "open door" in both China and east Asia in general. America should abandon the open-door policy, all of our Asian wars since at least the Spanish-American war have derived in some extent from maintaining this "open door". You're looking at governments; Xenakis is looking at peoples. I tend to agree with him that crisis wars are decided by peoples, not by governments. Cheer up! That means you millies will help drag us into whatever destructive wars we get into.
03-10-2018, 09:02 PM
(03-10-2018, 08:54 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(03-10-2018, 02:59 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: No, you are still an idiot on this issue because it was the Hanoi government, NOT the South Vietnamese populace, who fueled the Sino-Vietnamese war and the Sino-Vietnamese border conflict as well as the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia. The Current nationalism emanates from Hanoi, not Saigon. The US only has reconciled with Vietnam in the last few years; During the 1980s the Vietnamese were supported by the soviets while the opposition was supported by both China and the US. Regarding the US, American foreign policy since the 1860s has been consistently supporting the so-called "open door" in both China and east Asia in general. America should abandon the open-door policy, all of our Asian wars since at least the Spanish-American war have derived in some extent from maintaining this "open door". That still means that the Vietnamese nationalism is driven by memories of their victory in the Vietnam war and later victories against china and is therefore driven by the Vietnamese who were descendants of the NVA/Viet Cong forces from the Vietnam War and who later fought China and the Khmer Rouge in the 1980s. Most of the Vietnamese who were on the American side during the Vietnam War fled to the US after the North Vietnamese victory.
03-10-2018, 11:37 PM
*** 11-Mar-18 World View -- General warns of US security danger if China acquires Djibouti seaport
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** General warns of US security danger if China acquires Djibouti seaport **** ![[Image: g180310b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180310b.jpg) Djibouti is strategically located at the mouth of the Red Sea, with access to the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean The government of Djibouti made a shock announcement in February that it was canceling its contract with Dubai's DP World, and was seizing control of Djibouti's strategic port at the entrance to the Red Sea, the Doraleh Container Terminal. DP World and the Republic of Djibouti had signed a 30-year agreement in 2006 for DP World to operate the terminal, which augments the capacity of the International Autonomous Port of Djibouti. But last month, Djibouti announced "The Republic of Djibouti has decided to proceed with the unilateral termination with immediate effect of the concession contract awarded to DP World, ... [to serve] the higher interests of the nation, in particular those relating to the sovereignty of the state and the economic independence of the country." DP World called the move an illegal seizure of the terminal and said it had begun arbitration proceedings before the London Court of International Arbitration, but even if DP World wins the case, they will receive monetary compensation, but they will still lose control of the port. On Tuesday of last week, Djibouti signed a deal with Singapore-based Pacific International Lines (PIL), a company that works with China Merchants Port Holdings. Although this does not give China control of the port, it's a step in that direction. General Thomas Waldhauser, the top US general for Africa, said that "If the Chinese took over that port, then the consequences could be significant," and added, "There are some indications of (China) looking for additional facilities, specifically on the eastern coast ... So Djibouti happens to be the first — there will be more." Djibouti is home to the only permanent US military installation in Africa. But last year, China opened its first overseas naval base there too, provided loans to the country, and built a railway connecting the seaport to the Ethiopian capital to improve regional trade. One of the concerns is that if Djibouti illegally seized the port from DP World in order to give it to China, then they could just as easily terminate the lease for the US military base, and award that to China as well. According to Waldhauser, "If they did [give the port to China], down the way that restricts access, that restricts the navy’s ability to get in there and offload supplies." The larger concern is that the US has been falling behind China in influence in Africa. The US gives millions of dollars in aid, but China has eclipsed the US in Africa in many ways: providing loans, financing much-needed infrastructure, competing for resources like oil and minerals, increasing its trade share, and spreading its ideological influence. Maritime Executive (22-Feb) and Reuters and Quartz and Reuters **** **** China continues influence through 'debt trap' policies **** The US has provided millions of dollars in aid for counter-terrorism efforts in countries like Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, Chad, and Nigeria, to fight terrorist groups like al-Shabaab or Boko Haram. China's policies are quite different. China does not provide aid. It provides high interest rate loans to the country to build infrastructure, then provides Chinese workers which the country has to hire to build the infrastructure. The country that receives this kind of "aid" then must pay the salaries of all the Chinese workers, and must also repay the loan, including the high interest. China then extract's the country's resources, and no local jobs are created, and almost no benefit goes to the country. If the country is unable to make those payments, then China takes possession of the seaport or other infrastructure, in lieu of payment, and also establishes a community of Chinese workers in the country -- a community which will be there forever. We've already described what happened with Sri Lanka, when China invested $1.2 billion in Sri Lanka's Hambantota seaport in 2009. The plan was that revenue generated by the seaport would be used to repay the Chinese, and the surplus would bring wealth and happiness to all Sri Lankans. It didn't turn out that way, and the project turned out to be a "debt trap." Sri Lanka couldn't repay the loan, and now China has taken control the seaport and the surrounding area. It's been a disaster for Sri Lanka. In a speech last week, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson contrasted US policies with China's policies: <QUOTE>"The United States pursues, develops sustainable growth that bolsters institutions, strengthens rule of law, and builds the capacity of African countries to stand on their own two feet. We partner with African countries by incentivizing good governance to meet long term security and development goals. This stands in stark contrast to China’s approach, which encourages dependency using opaque contracts, predatory loan practices, and corrupt deals that mire nations in debt and undercut their sovereignty, denying them their long-term, self-sustaining growth. Chinese investment does have the potential to address Africa’s infrastructure gap, but its approach has led to mounting debt and few, if any, jobs in most countries. When coupled with the political and fiscal pressure, this endangers Africa’s natural resources and its long-term economic political stability."<END QUOTE> Countries that have already substantially increased their debt-to-GDP ratio because of China's debt trap policies include Djibouti, Montenegro, Pakistan, Mongolia, Maldives, Laos, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. US State Dept and Quartz and CNN and US Embassy in Nigeria Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Djibouti, Doraleh Container Terminal, International Autonomous Port of Djibouti, Red Sea, Dubai, DP World, Pacific International Lines, PIL, China, China Merchants Port Holdings, Thomas Waldhauser, debt trap, Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport, Rex Tillerson, Montenegro, Pakistan, Mongolia, Maldives, Laos, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
03-11-2018, 03:53 PM
Regarding the Vietnamese History that I was talking about yesterday, the Chinese and the southern Vietnamese have no real history of hostility toward one another. Sino-Vietnamese hostility historically has been between China and North Vietnam (which originated from the Dai Viet kingdom). Chinese vs Northern Vietnamese hostility goes back to at least the Tang dynasty in 7th-8th centuries AD, in fact it goes as far back as the 1st Century Ad with the troung sisters rebellion.
03-11-2018, 10:53 PM
*** 12-Mar-18 World View -- Socialists and feminists to act as 'human shields' protecting Kurds from Turkey in Afrin Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Socialists and feminists to act as 'human shields' protecting Kurds from Turkey in Afrin **** ![[Image: g180311b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g180311b.jpg) Turkish and FSA fighters near Afrin, Syria (Agencia Efe) Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch on January 20, expecting to take control of Afrin from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) within a few days. The operation was executed by Arab militias in the Free Syrian Army (FSA), backed by Turkish armed forces. The operation has taken much longer than expected, leading to speculation that Turkey's army has been made substantially weaker because of all the firings of army officers following the botched coup attempt in June 2016. However, in the last few days, Turkish forces and the FSA have made extremely rapid progress. They've captured a number of towns and villages on the outskirts of Afrin, and have surrounded Afrin itself, in preparation to enter the Afrin city center shortly. Turkish officials say that the reason that the operation has taken so long is that they are trying to minimize civilian casualties. They contrast themselves to the Syrian army of Bashar al-Assad which is attacking Eastern Ghouta and freely targeting civilians with barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas. However, Socialist and feminist groups are calling on members to act has human shields to prevent Turkish forces from entering Afrin. According to a joint statement by the Initiative for the Unity and Solidarity of Peoples (SYPG) and the Free Socialist Women (JAS): <QUOTE>"We are now on the 51st day of our great resistance against the attack of the colonialist and fascist Turkish state on our canton Afrin. As SYPG and JAS, we will launch a new group of human shields against the invasion of the Cizirê region and the Firat (Euphrates) region. Against the invasion of the Turkish state, all of our oppressed peoples and progressive revolutionary forces should become millions and go out on the streets, giving strength to our Afrin resistance. Colonialism, fascism will be defeated - our resistance from Afrin will prevail. We bow to our fallen in respect and wish all our resistance fighters success."<END QUOTE> Kurdish groups within Turkey itself are also encouraging their members to go to Afrin in Syria and become human shields. However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Turkish led forces are just four to five kilometers from Afrin, and that the objective was not to "occupy" Afrin but to "liberate" it from the YPG occupiers: "In the Afrin region, the owners of the lands have started to come back." Daily Sabah (Ankara) and ANF (Kurdish) and Al Jazeera **** **** US cuts back operations in Incirlik as Turkey-NATO relations sour **** Turkey's president on Sunday denounced NATO for failing to back Turkey's fight against the YPG: <QUOTE>"Hey NATO, with what has been going on in Syria, when are you going to come and be alongside us? We are constantly harassed by terror groups on our borders. Unfortunately, until now, there has not been a positive word or voice. Is this friendship? Is this NATO unity? Are we not a NATO member?"<END QUOTE> The YPG is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been conducting a violent insurgency in Turkey for three decades, and has performed multiple major terrorist attacks in major Turkish cities in the last three years. The PKK is considered a terrorist group by the US and the EU. So from the point of view of Turkey, the fact that the US has been arming the YPG to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Raqqa, and has continued to support the YPG even though Raqqa has been recaptured from ISIS, is considered a major betrayal. In fact, the US has reneged on a promise to Turkey to stop supplying the YPG with heavy weapons. The head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said after Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch: <QUOTE>"No NATO member country has been exposed to as many terror attacks as Turkey. Turkey has the right to deal with its own security concerns. Yet, it should do it in a moderate way."<END QUOTE> However, NATO has provided no actual support. Turkish public opinion has become increasing outraged by NATO's lack of support, and by the US arming the YPG, which is linked to the PKK terrorist group. According to one survey of Turkish public opinion, 64.3% of Turks think that the US poses a threat to Turkey, up from 39.2% in 2016. According to a Turkish official: <QUOTE>"Turkey's Syrian border is also NATO's southern border. Within these borders there have been so many assaults from the other side by the YPG and PKK. While not showing any reaction to those attacks, NATO members' stance against Turkey, which is protecting its borders and fights against terrorist groups, is not in line with the law of alliance."<END QUOTE> This has led in Turkey to discussions that Turkey should shut down Incirlik Airbase, which has been used by the US since 1954. Incirlik has about 5,000 U.S. troops, and is home to the 39th Air Base Wing of the U.S. Air Force. In addition, there are calls to shut down Kürecik Base, which is home to a NATO radar system that was designed to intercept rocket attacks. It's now being reported that the U.S. military has sharply reduced combat operations at Turkey’s Incirlik air base and is considering permanent cutbacks there. In January, the US moved A-10 ground jets from Incirlik base, leaving only refueling aircraft. The number of military members living at the base have also been reduced. At the time, the Pentagon explained the move on the basis of its decision to step up operations in Afghanistan. According to U.S. officials, the U.S. remains committed to Turkey, a North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally, and that there are no immediate plans for a further reduction of forces and aircraft. Daily Sabah (Ankara, 24-Feb) and Hurriyet (Ankara, 13-Feb) and Daily Sabah (15-Feb) and Ahval News and Bipartisan Policy Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Operation Olive Branch, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria, Afrin, People's Protection Units, YPG, Unity and Solidarity of Peoples, SYPG, Free Socialist Women, JAS, NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, Incirlik airbase, Kürecik base Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
03-11-2018, 11:26 PM
If the US were backing the YPG in Afrin, the Turks would not be coming anywhere close to taking it.
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