Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 28-Feb-2020 World View: Collapse of interconnected, interlocking debt

richard5za Wrote:> It may well be forced selling; it depends upon just how reckless
> the trading became; time will tell.

(02-28-2020, 12:25 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I don't see how covering shorts can cause a crash, even selling to
> cover shorts. Covering a short is a buy action, so you're buying
> as much as you're selling.

A chain reaction panic would not be caused by recent reckless
transactions or recent shorts. It would be caused by the unraveling
of hundreds of trillions of dollars of interlocking debt that has
been built up since the end of World War II, and people increasingly
ignored the lessons of the Great Depression.

• IMF graph of Global debt growth, 1950-2017

That graph is a year old. Global debt has continued to increase
exponentially, and had reached $253 trillion by September, and is probably
around $260 trillion today.

-- Global debt hits new record of $253 trillion and is set to grow
even more this year
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/14/global-d...-says.html
(CNBC, 14-Jan-2020)

This debt has been growing exponentially for decades. In addition,
the number of interlocking connections has been growing exponentially.

(This is analogous to the interlocking, interconnected global supply
chains through China that are much in the news these days.)

So the chain reaction panic would be triggered by a major bankruptcy
in one company, which won't then be able to make payments on their
debts, and will sell off their assets, including stocks. Other
companies or hedge funds that counted on receiving those debt payments
would then be forced to sell stocks to pay their own debts, to
cover shorts, or meet margin calls.

The point is that this has nothing to do with recent transactions.
This has to do with an ocean of interlocking, interconnected debt
that has built up since WW II.

In 1929, it took for years for the interconnected debt to unravel
completely, and the market only reached bottom in 1933.

In 1987, ther was a "false panic" that fizzled quickly because there
was still a reasonable amount of interconnected debt.

In 2008, I wrote a lot about this interconnected debt situation,
especially after Bear Stearns and Lehman went backrupt. Normally, the
ocean of interlocking, interconnected debt is self-healing, but in
2008 it wasn't.

** Investors fear a 'chain reaction' in stock market.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...m#e080317b


** Investors are having another nail-biting weekend as Lehman heads off the cliff
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e080913


The thing that I didn't understand in 2008 is that the Fed could
"print money" in massive amounts using quantitative easing.

The purpose of QE was specifically to allow people to borrow more
money instead of being forced to sell off.

So today we're facing the same situation we faced in 2008, but with
some differences. If you look at the IMF graph, it seems that debt in
the US has leveled off (at an extremely high), but has grown much
faster outside the United States. If a new panic begins, the Fed and
other central banks would try to "print money" to patch things up, but
with $260 trillion in global debt, that may not be possible.

Ordinarily I wouldn't be talking like this, but the world economy
is extremely fragile today because of the US-China trade talks, and
especially because of the world coronavirus crisis, which has already
resulted in millions of businesses in China going bankrupt. These
factors are an enormous shock to the body of interlocking,
interconnective debt that I described.

If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then investors will spend
the weekend becoming increasingly worried, and be ready to sell first
thing Monday morning, resulting in a massive Black Monday selloff.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world
  
• Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) observations
  

****
**** Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world
****


Medical staff with the coffin containing the body of Assunta Pastore, 87, who died at the Garden hotel in Laigueglia, north-west Italy, on Sunday. (AP)

On Sunday, the United States, Australia and Thailand reported first
deaths from coronavirus, while the Italy death toll rose to 34, and
Dominican Republic reported its first case.

****
**** Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) observations
****

It's now the first week of March, and the shape of the coronavirus
crisis is becoming clearer. I've read or listened to literally
hundreds of reports, and these are my personal conclusions:

• Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) shows no signs of stopping.
  
  
• China claims that it's stopped in China, but no one knows what
  will happen when the draconian restrictions are lifted that are
  currently keeping tens of millions of people quarantined and
  isolated.
  
  
• Many people are hoping that the warm summer weather will stop
  spread of the virus, but Singapore, which is on the equator and has
  warm summer weather, just had several new confirmed cases in the last
  couple of days. And even if the summer weather slowed the spread of
  the virus, history shows that it would return in full force in the
  fall.
  
  
• Sooner or later, everyone in the world will be exposed to
  Covid-19. 80% of the cases will be mild. Another 10% will be
  serious, but curable. The other 10% will be extremely serious, and
  will lead to some deaths. Most of the deaths will occur among the
  elderly, or people with a history of smoking.
  
  
• Infection does not provide protection from reinfection.
  Reinfected patients have a high death rate.
  
  
• When someone dies of coronavirus, it usually means that there is a
  cluster of undiagnosed cases behind it.
  
  
• Coronavirus is an economic disaster for China. China is overdue
  for a massive anti-government rebellion, the first since Mao's
  Communist Revolution civil war, and coronavirus could be the
  trigger.
  
  
• Businesses will be looking for ways to repair their broken supply
  chains as quickly as possible, by seeking alternate suppliers.
  
  
• Most companies will be at least partially back in business by
  summer, looking for ways -- robotics, working at home, hazmat suits,
  etc. -- to get things going again.
  
  
• Each country will use containment as its first strategy --
  tracking and testing travelers and others who might be infected,
  identifying others by means of contact tracing, and requiring those
  who fail the test to be isolated and quarantined in the homes or hotel
  rooms.
  
  
• When the containment strategy fails, each country will move to a
  mitigation and risk reduction strategy -- close public gatherings,
  encourage or force large populations of people to stay at home, shut
  down all mass travel -- air, bus and train. In Japan, for example, a
  closely scrutinized decision will be about the Tokyo Olympics which,
  if canceled, would have devastating consequences for Japan's
  economy.
  
  
• The objective of both the containment and mitigation strategies is
  to buy as much time as possible until a vaccine can be deployed.
  
  
• Lots of companies are working on vaccines, and something may be
  available for test purposes in a few weeks. However, it will be at
  least a year before a vaccine can be widely deployed.
  
  
• Wall Street stocks are in the biggest bubble in history, and the
  same is true of stock exchanges in many other countries. It is 100%
  certain that this bubble will burst at some point, leading to a global
  panic and financial crisis. It's possible that the Coronavirus crisis
  will be the trigger.
  
  
• All in all, it will take about a year for the world to return to
  "normal," but that will be a "new normal," living side-by-side with
  Coronavirus. However, WW III and a global financial crisis are likely
  to begin within a year. By 2021, the world will be a very different
  place.

General advice from the experts: Wash your hands, cough into your
sleeve, and don't touch your face.

Source:

• Coronavirus latest updates (Guardian, 1-Mar-2020)

Related Article:

• Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) (21-Feb-2020)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19,
Singapore, Japan, Summer Olympics, South Korea

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 02-Mar-2020 World View: WHO: This virus is not influenza

I'm getting really annoyed by seeing smooth-talking males and sweetly
smiling sexy girls explaining to the TV audience that there is nothing
to worry about because hundreds of thousands of people get the
ordinary seasonal flu each other, and 50,000 or so die each year.
Therefore, they conclude, coronavirus is no different than ordinary
flu.

That's obviously an open-mouth lie.

• If Coronavirus were just like the ordinary flu, then why has
  China quarantined tens of millions of people? And why is China's
  economy near collapse, with millions of businesses shut down?
  
  
• If Coronavirus were just like the ordinary flu, then why did the
  Japanese quarantine the Diamond Princess cruise ship for weeks, and
  why is Japan considering canceling the Tokyo Olympics?
  
  
• If Coronavirus were just like the orginary flu, then why is every
  country in the world setting up travel restrictions, forbidding large
  gatherings of people, and quarantining many people, even those who
  haven't yet shown symptoms?

Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus gave a press briefing
today:

Quote: "The epidemics in the Republic of Korea, Italy, Iran
and Japan are our greatest concern. This is a unique virus, with
unique features. This virus is not influenza. We are in uncharted
territory."

So if you ignore the pretty smiles and soothing, reassuring words,
then that's where we really are.


---- Source:

-- WHO says new coronavirus cases outside China are 9 times higher
than inside over last 24 hours
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/02/who-says...hours.html
(CNBC, 2-Mar-2020)

---- Related:

** 2-Mar-20 World View -- Coronavirus updates -- infections spread across the world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200302

[Warren Dew]

(03-02-2020, 06:44 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

• If Coronavirus were just like the ordinary flu, then why has
  China quarantined tens of millions of people?  And why is China's
  economy near collapse, with millions of businesses shut down?
  

Because China is an authoritarian country, and the rulers have more scope to overreact.  As for the millions of businesses shut down, that's a result of the governmental overreaction.  Did you suddenly believe that the Chinese Communist Party had somehow become sensible and rational just for this one occasion?

Quote:

• If Coronavirus were just like the ordinary flu, then why did the
  Japanese quarantine the Diamond Princess cruise ship for weeks, and
  why is Japan considering canceling the Tokyo Olympics?
  

Because Japan would prefer to quarantine all cruise ships that way even for ordinary flu, in order to minimize any potential impact on their own population; they just can't do it for ordinary flu for political reasons.  In fact, if it weren't for political realities, the Japanese would prefer to prohibit any foreigner from ever setting foot in Japan.  They certainly don't care about nonjapanese getting sick on the cruise ship, and they care more about the Japanese that stay home than about those that travel on some foreign cruise ship.

Quote:

• If Coronavirus were just like the orginary flu, then why is every
  country in the world setting up travel restrictions, forbidding large
  gatherings of people, and quarantining many people, even those who
  haven't yet shown symptoms?
  

Because when the public gets worried about something, governments prefer to be seen as "doing something", even if it turns out what they're doing is counterproductive. In the context of the current crisis period, there's also the fact that the population is xenophobic so any actions that exclude foreigners are likely to be seen positively.

Incidentally, CDC numbers imply that in 6-8% of flu hospitalizations this winter, the patient has died.  In previous years, it has ranged up to 25% based on figures at WebMD.  It would be interesting to know how many of the "confirmed" Covid-19 cases have involved hospitalization - I suspect a high fraction, since the bar for getting tested has been pretty high - so that we could get some apples to apples comparisons of fatality rates between seasonal flu and Covid-19.  I suspect we'd find the fatality rates are in the same range, and that Covid-19 may even be lower.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pre...imates.htm

[John J. Xenakis]

** 03-Mar-2020 World View: WHO changes coronavirus (Covid-19) fatality rate to 3.4%

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the World Health Organization
(WHO), shocked reporters a couple of hours ago by saying that about
3.4% of confirmed coronavirus cases have died. This is contrasted
to the 0.1% death rate of the ordinary seasonal flu.

At the beginning of this crisis, I heard numbers like 2.1%. Then,
after a couple of weeks, the WHO announced that it was actually about
1%.

So today's announcement by Tedros is actually quite shocking. If
correct, it will mean additional tens of millions of deaths from
Covid-19 in the next year.

Other than that, the news is that coronavirus continues to spread, and
shows no signs of stopping. Financial markets continue to be in a
chaotic near-panic state.

---- Source:

-- Coronavirus more deadly than flu but containable: WHO's Tedros
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-coron...SKBN20Q2G6
(Reuters, 3-Mar-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 05-Mar-2020 World View: Latest Coronavirus updates

Several days ago I described the latest updates in the Wuhan
Coronavirus (Covid-19) emergency. The following repeats that list,
with some updates and further context. These are my personal
conclusions, based on the thousands of reports that I've heard or
read.

My main conclusion is that the base scenario is that economic growth
will remain essentially at zero, and there will be no recovery until a
vaccine is developed, which experts say will not happen until 2021.
This is the predicted scenario assumed by this article. The details
of the predicted recovery are at the end of this article.

• Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19) is spreading rapidly, and is
  showing no signs of stopping.
  
  
• China claims that it's stopped in China, but no one knows what
  will happen when the draconian restrictions are lifted that are
  currently keeping tens of millions of people quarantined and isolated.
  However, South Korea appears to be having success with strict but less
  draconian restrictions.
  
  
• Many people are hoping that the warm summer weather will stop
  spread of the virus, but Singapore, which is on the equator and has
  warm summer weather, just had several new confirmed cases in the last
  few days. And even if the summer weather slowed the spread of the
  virus, history shows that it would return in full force in the
  fall.
  
  
• Sooner or later, everyone in the world will be exposed to
  Covid-19. 80% of the cases will be mild. Another 10% will be
  serious, but curable. The other 10% will be extremely serious, and
  will lead to some deaths. Most of the deaths will occur among the
  elderly, or people with a history of smoking.
  
  
• On Tuesday (Mar 5), Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director of the
  World Health Organization (WHO), shocked reporters by saying that
  about 3.4% of confirmed coronavirus cases have died. This is
  contrasted to the 0.1% death rate of the ordinary seasonal flu. At
  the beginning of this crisis, I heard numbers like 2.1%. Then, after
  a couple of weeks, the WHO announced that it was actually about 1%.
  So Tueday's announcement by Tedros is actually quite shocking.
  
  
• Infection does not provide protection from reinfection.
  Reinfected patients have a high death rate.
  
  
• When someone dies of coronavirus, it usually means that there is a
  cluster of undiagnosed cases behind it.
  
  
• Coronavirus is an economic disaster for China. China is overdue
  for a massive anti-government rebellion, the first since Mao's
  Communist Revolution civil war, and coronavirus could be the
  trigger.
  
  
• Businesses will be looking for ways to repair their broken supply
  chains as quickly as possible, by seeking alternate suppliers.
  
  
• Most companies will be at least partially back in business by
  summer, looking for ways -- robotics, working at home, hazmat suits,
  etc. -- to get things going again. For example, medical services will
  increasingly use a "Teledoc" model.
  
  
• Companies that depend on crowds of people will look for ways (such
  as using separation booths in restaurants) to maintain a sufficient
  social distance between people.
  
  
• Each country will use containment as its first strategy --
  tracking and testing travelers and others who might be infected,
  identifying others by means of contact tracing, and requiring those
  who fail the test to be isolated and quarantined in the homes or hotel
  rooms.
  
  
• When the containment strategy fails, each country will move to a
  mitigation and risk reduction strategy -- close public gatherings,
  encourage or force large populations of people to stay at home, shut
  down all mass travel -- air, bus and train. In Japan, for example, a
  closely scrutinized decision will be about the Tokyo Olympics which,
  if canceled, would have devastating consequences for Japan's
  economy.
  
  
• The objective of both the containment and mitigation strategies is
  to buy as much time as possible until a vaccine can be deployed.
  
  
• Lots of companies are working on vaccines, and something may be
  available for test purposes in a few weeks. However, it will be at
  least a year before a vaccine can be widely deployed, according to
  multiple experts.
  
  
• Wall Street stocks are in the biggest bubble in history, and the
  same is true of stock exchanges in many other countries. It is 100%
  certain that this bubble will burst at some point, leading to a global
  panic and financial crisis. It's possible that the Coronavirus crisis
  will be the trigger.

My base scenario for the unfolding of the coronavirus crisis is as
follows:

• Continued financial and business losses, with only marginal
  recovery, for a year.
  
  
• No recovery until a vaccine can be widely deployed, which experts
  say won't happen for a year.
  
  
• A strong V-shaped recovery as a vaccine becomes deployed in
  2021.

The recovery could be sped up if a vaccine could be deployed more
quickly, but experts insist that this is impossible.

On the other hand, the recovery could be derailed for years if the
current stock market bubble bursts and there's a major international
financial crisis, which history tells us is overdue.

The recovery could also be derailed by war. China's economy is
extremely unstable, and Mideast ethnic rivalries are churning up, and
either of these situations could spiral into a larger war -- which
history tells us is also overdue.

All in all, it will take about a year for the world to return to
"normal," but that will be a "new normal," living side-by-side with
Coronavirus. However, WW III and a global financial crisis may well
begin within a year. By 2021, the world will be a very different
place.

General advice from the experts: Wash your hands, cough into your
sleeve, and don't touch your face.

[Warren Dew]

(03-05-2020, 08:23 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

• Many people are hoping that the warm summer weather will stop
  spread of the virus, but Singapore, which is on the equator and has
  warm summer weather, just had several new confirmed cases in the last
  few days.  And even if the summer weather slowed the spread of the
  virus, history shows that it would return in full force in the
  fall.
  

Singapore has had no deaths, though, compared to countries that get winter like Japan and Korea.  Possibly the best policy would be to hold it off as much as we can until May, then try to get everyone to get it and recover by September.

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-28-2020, 12:25 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(02-27-2020, 10:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then Monday will be a
bloodbath ("Black Monday").

I don't see how covering shorts can cause a crash, even selling to cover shorts.  Covering a short is a buy action, so you're buying as much as you're selling.

I don't think there are too many shot positions out there. The FED scared a lot of them off with CTRL-P. So there aren't as many short cover buy actions.  I did like those awful cheap out of the money S&P puts which the FED made dirt cheap with their constant market rah rahs. John is correct, it was a matter of time before the everything bubble found its pin. I bet on the black swan event as being a lot worse than our hopium addled nation realizes.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Mar-20 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan travels to Moscow to beg Russia's Putin for Idlib ceasefire deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey's Erdogan travels to Moscow to beg Russia's Putin for Idlib ceasefire deal
  
• Putin's objectives in Syria
  
• Erdogan's objectives in Syria
  
• European Union reaction to Idlib crisis
  

****
**** Turkey's Erdogan travels to Moscow to beg Russia's Putin for Idlib ceasefire deal
****


Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday. Erdogan is the lamb being led to slaughter.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Moscow today to
meet with Russia's president Vladimir Putin. At the end of their
meeting, they announced a ceasefire agreement for Syria's Idlib
province.

Before going into the terms of the agreement, let's take a look at
what each of the protagonists wants.

I heard a video clip from Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on tv. I
don't have the exact words, but it was something like the following:

<QUOTE>"Why does Turkey have troops in Idlib? Syria has
never done anything to Turkey. Turkey should withdraw its troops
from Idlib. They have no business being in Syria." (paraphrase)
<END QUOTE>

This statement made me laugh because it's so completely honest and so
completely typical of al-Assad's sociopathic, murderous, bloody
personality. Al-Assad has repeatedly made it clear that he wants to
take full control of Idlib province and get rid of the 4 million Sunni
Arabs living there, most of whom are children, and most of the rest of
whom are women. Al-Assad would like to push all four million of them
into Turkey, which would require Turkey to open its border to them,
which would be an economic disaster for Turkey -- and for Europe as
well, because they would continue traveling to the EU.

Or else, al-Assad would simply like to kill all four million Sunni
Arabs. When al-Assad says that Turkey should not interfere, he means
that he wants a free hand to slaughter all four million of them, by
any means possible, leaving their dead bodies strewn across Idlib, to
have their bodies and belongings to be picked over by those lucky
Syrian troops. And he's telling Turkey to just sit there and watch
all this go on.

None of this is really surprising. Al-Assad has said for years that
he wants control of Idlib and the removal of all the Syrian Arabs, all
of whom he considers to be cockroaches to be extinguished.

****
**** Putin's objectives in Syria
****

Vladimir Putin is the most dishonest of the participants in that
everything he says is a lie. So we can only infer his objectives:

• In exchange for supporting al-Assad, Russia now has two
  military bases in Syria, the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim
  airbase. When al-Assad begged Putin for military help in 2015, Putin
  agreed to help, and received control of the two military bases in
  return.
  
  
• Putin would like to split Turkey away from Nato. This is the only
  reason that Putin is even talking to Erdogan.
  
  
• This is more speculative, but I believe that Putin would take
  great pleasure in seeing those four million civilians in Idlib cross
  over into Turkey, and then cross over into Europe.

****
**** Erdogan's objectives in Syria
****

Turkey is facing an existential crisis, with four million Syrian
civilians crowded along its border. If al-Assad is allowed to kill
four million civilians, it will be a social and political disaster for
Turkey for not stopping it. If al-Assad is allowed to drive four
million civilians into Turkey, that would be an economic disaster for
Turkey.

So that's Erdogan's major objective in meeting with Putin: Please,
please, please stop al-Assad's attack on the four million civilians in
Idlib.

Last week, Russian and Syrian warplanes killed 30-50 Turkish soldiers
in Idlib who were there as observers. This left Erdogan with no
choice. Turkey has now sent thousands of troops into Idlib to repel
the Syrian regime army.

On Tuesday, there was a fistfight in Turkey's parliament between
Erdogan supporters and opponents. According to one report, the
disagreement was whether Erdogan should be sending troops into Syria.
According to another report, the disagreement was whether Erdogan
should be meeting with Putin, since it was Putin's warplanes that
killed the Turkish soldiers in Idlib.

So on Thursday Erdogan and Putin did agree to a temporary ceasefire.

But anyone can see that this ceasefire agreement is a joke. Al-Assad
is bloodthirsty, and won't stop killing civilians in Idlib. Russia
sees support for Syria as being the way to be recognized as a powerful
player in the Mideast.

There are powerful generational forces at play here. Nothing is going
to deter al-Assad for long. Nothing will stop Putin from fully
supporting al-Assad.

In my personal opinion, Erdogan will be forced to full-scale war with
the Syrian regime army. That would lead to war between Turkey and
Russia.

Turkey and Russia have both made it clear that neither wants war with
the other, and yet they've fought major many generational crisis wars
with each other. ( "25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars"
)

There are various "compromise" agreements being discussed. These
compromises have to do with setting up buffer zones or ceasefire
zones, where Idlib civilians can hide out from Syrian and Russian
warplanes. We've had "de-escalation" zones before, but they're always
a hoax, since Putin uses them to cover up Russian atrocities, and
al-Assad simply ignores them.

****
**** European Union reaction to Idlib crisis
****

Erdogan has been begging European Union officials to provide help with
the potential humanitarian crisis in Idlib. In order to pressure the
EU, Turkey has encouraged tens of thousands of Syrian refugees to
cross the border into Europe. These are not refugees from Idlib.
These are from the 3.5 million Syrian refugees that are already in
Turkey.

Thousands of these migrants and refugees are trapped on Turkey's side
of the border with Greece and Bulgaria. Along the Edirne river, which
serves as a border between Greece and Turkey, there have been clashes
between the migrants and Greek police. Turkey has accused Greece of
using live ammunition against the migrants, a charge that Greece has
denied.

On Thursday, Turkey deployed 1,000 police officers on its border with
Greece. Formerly, these police were used to prevent migrants from
trying to cross into Greece. But now they have a different purpose:
Their job is to stop the Greek police from pushing the migrants back
into Turkey.

All this is on top of millennia of wars between Greece and Turkey,
dating back at least to the days of the Trojan Horse, culminating most
recently in the conflict over Cyprus.

So Turkey is facing a new conflict with the EU, is close to war with
the Syrian regime in Idlib, and that may expand to war with Russia.
In this generational Crisis era, there are powerful generational
forces pushing these conflicts and potential conflicts forward. It's
hard to see what might stop them, if anything can.

Sources:

• Syria war: Russia and Turkey agree Idlib ceasefire (BBC, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Erdogan, Putin announce Idlib ceasefire after Moscow meeting (Al-Jazeera, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Turkey, Russia Agree Ceasefire in Syria's Idlib (Moscow Times, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Turkey, Russia agree on ceasefire in Idlib (Hurriyet, London, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Russia and Turkey agree ceasefire in Syria's Idlib province (Guardian, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• No good option for Turkey / There is no lasting solution in sight for the Idlib debacle (Middle East Eye, 4-Mar-2020)
  
• EU 'strongly rejects' Turkey’s 'use' of migrants at border (Deutsche Welle, 4-Mar-2020)
  
• Turkey and Russia agree to ceasefire in Idlib (Axios, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Syria's migrant crisis collides with geopolitics (Axios, 3-Mar-2020)
  
• Turkey, Russia reach agreement for cease-fire in Syria's Idlib (Daily Sabah, Ankara, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Turkey, Russia agree on cease-fire in Idlib, Syria (Anadolu, Ankara, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Erdogan and Putin Meet Over Syria (Foreign Policy, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Russia, Turkey reach cease-fire deal in northwestern Syria (AP, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• For Putin, victory in Syria is personal as well as political (AFP, 5-Mar-2020)
  
• Turkey / Greece / Turkish police bolster Greek border to stop migrants' return (Al-Jazeera, 5-Mar-2020)

Related Articles:

• Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey (11-Feb-2020)
  
  
• Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib (09-Feb-2020)
  
  
• Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
  
  
• Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars (25-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Idlib,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase, Nato,
Bulgaria, Greece, Edirne river, Cyprus

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Vitamin C and the Common Cold

Navigator Wrote:> Like John, I also use massive quantities of Vitamin C on a daily
> basis. I take 6-8 Grams per day. That's 6000-8000mg.

> I started doing this after reading a book by Linus Pauling on
> Vitamin C. The title was "How to Live Longer and Feel Better".
> Linus Pauling was a renowned chemist, the Albert Einstein of his
> field. You can get a copy of this book for about $5.

> He pointed out all of the reasons for taking large amounts of
> Vitamin C. He also got into why the medical field doesn't want
> you to do this, and it basically came down to "they want you to
> visit the doctor, need medical care, and take over the counter
> drugs - this generates a lot of income for them".

> Pauling's father died in his 30's. Linus lived well into his 90s
> and was healthy and mentally active up until the very end.

> Since I have been taking the large doses, I don't get colds but
> maybe once every 2-3 years. I also don't get the flu every year
> like most people.

> One word of advice here - it works best as a PREVENTIVE action.
> Once you get sick, it can reduce the severity, but there I would
> recommend Zinc melts as well.

I have a Vitamin C story similar to yours.

The book that I read was "Vitamin C and the Common Cold" by Linus
Pauling.

Several weeks after reading it, I started developing a bad sore throat.
It was 7 pm and I was working at IBM, and everyone else had gone home,
so I had the mainframe to myself. I decided that I might as well stay
and work as long as possible, since I knew from experience that the
next day I would be staying at home sick in bed.

So I worked until around 1 am and left. But on the way home, I
stopped off at the Philips Drugstore which, at that time, was the only
all-night drugstore in Boston. I bought a bottle of Vitamin C, drove
home, took five grams of Vitamin C and went to bed.

When I work up the next morning, I was truly shocked. I had no sore
throat, no sniffles, no nothing. I felt as good as ever.

According to the book, when you start feeling the first symptoms of a
cold -- the sniffles or a scratchy throat -- then you should
immediately take 5 grams of Vitamin C, and continue, taking about 20
grams a day for several days. So I did that, and stopped having
colds.

Then, around five years later, I decided that it would be easier to
prevent even the initial symptoms, by taking 5 grams of Vitamin C
every day. I got three colds that year. I remember the secretary
where I worked mocking me. "Hahaha. You're taking vitamin C but you
got a cold. Hahaha."

Well, anyway, I learned my lesson. For Vitamin C to work, at least
for me, you have to take very little on a daily basis, but then take
massive amounts at the first symptoms. That's worked pretty reliably
every since.

Quote:> "He pointed out all of the reasons for taking large
> amounts of Vitamin C. He also got into why the medical field
> doesn't want you to do this, and it basically came down to "they
> want you to visit the doctor, need medical care, and take over the
> counter drugs - this generates a lot of income for
> them."

Yeah, this is Linus Pauling the conspiracy theorist speaking, but I
don't buy this.

There are very good reasons why the medical field doesn't advocate
this -- it's way too complicated. You have to take a lot of vitamin C
some days, and very little other days. 99.9% of the people could
never cope with that. The FDA wouldn't like this because they simply
want to issue a minimum daily requirement. The vitamin manufacturers
don't like this because you're not taking vitamin C every day.

So this Vitamin C therapy has absolutely no constituency, except for
Pauling acolytes. And that's why the medical field doesn't advocate
this.

Having said that, I've said to many doctors over the years that I take
vitamin C for a cold, and they always ask me if it works. When I say
that it does, they don't seem surprised.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Singapore deaths

(03-05-2020, 09:09 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Singapore has had no deaths, though, compared to countries that
> get winter like Japan and Korea. Possibly the best policy would
> be to hold it off as much as we can until May, then try to get
> everyone to get it and recover by September.

I'm not sure it makes sense to compare the number of deaths in
Singapore to those in South Korea and Japan. Singapore is tiny
compared to the other two, and I understand has a very authoritarian
government that can isolate people a lot more quickly.

However, the core assumption that I'm making has nothing to do with
deaths. The core assumption is that, sooner or later, everyone in
the world will be exposed to coronavirus. A large number will
develop no symptoms, or mild symptoms. But a significant number
will become seriously ill and require hospitalization, with many
deaths. Even if the rate of infection comes down a little in
warm weather (and it's far from clear that it does), it will
return in full force in the fall.

I was listening to a discussion of vaccines on the BBC today, and
an interview with a the head of a company making a new high-tech
vaccine that can be deployed more quickly than existing vaccines.
It will go through stage 1 and stage 2 tests this year. When
can it be deployed? "We hope, early next year."

[John J. Xenakis]

** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Flu vaccine

FishbellykanakaDude Wrote:> We have a "flu" vaccine too,.. well, not "too", as we don't yet
> have a vaccine for Covid-19.

> Vaccines don't seem to "eliminate" a disease, or do they? Why do
> we still have "flu"?

The flu changes every year, so there's a new flu vaccine every year,
though work is being done on a "universal" flu vaccine. If the
Covid-19 vaccine does not work with Covid-21, then the crisis will
continue a lot longer.

When a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available, the first thing they'll do
is give it to health care givers, since they're on the front lines. A
vaccine will make contact tracing a lot more effective. Today, when
contact tracing is done for a Covid-19 patient, then the contacts will
be isolated or quarantined if they show symptoms, but if there are no
symptoms then nothing can be done.

But if a vaccine is available, then contact tracing becomes a lot more
effective, since the vaccine can be given even to asymptomatic people.

The experience of Ebola in eastern DRC is very educational. The Ebola
epidemic in west Africa in 2014-16 was disastrous, though it finally
burnt itself out. But by 2018 a vaccine was available, and that same
vaccine works with the strain of Ebola in eastern DRC.

What's amazing about the DRC situation is that it's an active war
zone, with ethnic groups attacking and killing each other -- and
sometimes attacking and killing medical NGOs -- on a daily basis. But
they gave the vaccine to vulnerable people in Uganda, so Ebola hasn't
spread there. And they've used the vaccine in conjunction with
contact tracing very effectively in eastern DRC, so they've done a
great job in preventing it from repeating the 2014-16 disaster.

So once a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available, hopefully early next
year, the Covid-19 pandemic will be controlled within a few weeks in
most developed countries, and within a few months in less developed
countries.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Mar-2020 World View: Covid-19 Vaccine

MrGuest Wrote:> Why are we so confident that there will be a vaccine? From what
> I've read we've never actually succeeded in developing a vaccine
> for previous coronaviruses. I suppose now that the whole world is
> focused on COVID-19 and plenty of money and resources will be
> thrown at the process the chances are better, but still it's hard
> to predict when the major breakthrough will occur.

As you suggest, there are a lot of companies working on a Covid-19
vaccine, but you make a good point: They might all fail.

Here are two articles on current developments:

These nine companies are working on coronavirus treatments or vaccines
— here’s where things stand
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-...2020-03-06

A simple guide to the vaccines and drugs that could fight coronavirus
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2...-drug-cure

[Warren Dew]

(03-06-2020, 05:21 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 06-Mar-2020 World View: Singapore deaths

(03-05-2020, 09:09 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   Singapore has had no deaths, though, compared to countries that
>   get winter like Japan and Korea.  Possibly the best policy would
>   be to hold it off as much as we can until May, then try to get
>   everyone to get it and recover by September.

I'm not sure it makes sense to compare the number of deaths in
Singapore to those in South Korea and Japan.  Singapore is tiny
compared to the other two, and I understand has a very authoritarian
government that can isolate people a lot more quickly.

More authoritarian than China?  China had plenty of deaths.  I compared to South Korea and Japan because of similar technology levels, but the truth is South Korea and Japan are a lot more authoritarian than the US, too.

Quote:However, the core assumption that I'm making has nothing to do with
deaths.  The core assumption is that, sooner or later, everyone in
the world will be exposed to coronavirus.  A large number will
develop no symptoms, or mild symptoms.  But a significant number
will become seriously ill and require hospitalization, with many
deaths.  Even if the rate of infection comes down a little in
warm weather (and it's far from clear that it does), it will
return in full force in the fall.

My argument isn't that the spread will slow in the Summer; Singapore has had cases, too.  My argument is that Covid-19 appears to be less deadly in warm weather.  The ideal strategy, ignoring vaccines for the moment, would be to try to get everyone exposed and as many infected as possible during the summer, when they won't die.

[Warren Dew]

(03-07-2020, 08:24 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 07-Mar-2020 World View: Covid-19 Vaccine

MrGuest Wrote:>   Why are we so confident that there will be a vaccine? From what
>   I've read we've never actually succeeded in developing a vaccine
>   for previous coronaviruses. I suppose now that the whole world is
>   focused on COVID-19 and plenty of money and resources will be
>   thrown at the process the chances are better, but still it's hard
>   to predict when the major breakthrough will occur.

As you suggest, there are a lot of companies working on a Covid-19
vaccine, but you make a good point: They might all fail.

Here are two articles on current developments:

These nine companies are working on coronavirus treatments or vaccines
— here’s where things stand
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-...2020-03-06

A simple guide to the vaccines and drugs that could fight coronavirus
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2...-drug-cure

The last coronavirus for which people worked on a vaccine was SARS, which like Covid-19 was a bat origin coronavirus.  At least one researcher had a vaccine ready for clinical trials but never got funding because SARS had declined by then.

Common colds are the most common coronavirus diseases.  The reason vaccines are not typically developed for them is that they mutate even faster than the flu.  Just like a flu vaccine one year is typically rendered ineffective by flu mutations by the next year, coronaviruses mutate faster than the vaccines can keep up.

However, the whole reason the common cold is less deadly than Covid-19 is because of how mutation works:  the common cold has mutated to be less deadly, so that it will be more easily spread.  If Covid-19 mutates, it's likely to become less deadly too.

Then there's the question about how deadly Covid-19 actually is.  Up until recently, we had no idea how many cases were being missed because of minimal or no symptoms.

South Korea has started random testing of the general population regardless of symptoms.  They're now testing 10,000 people per day, with about 500 new cases found per day.  Unfortunately I can't find a breakdown between random tested and nonrandom testing, but if many of the new cases are found by random testing, that suggests that 5% of the South Korean population may currently have Covid-19.  That would be 2.5 million people.  Compared to 2.5 million people, South Korea's 48 deaths would be less than a 0.002% fatality rate.

That might not be much higher than the chances of dying from complications of a common cold.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 07-Mar-2020 World View: Lebanon defaults on $1.2 billion loan payment

• Lebanon's prime minister Hassan Diab on television on
  Saturday announcing Lebanon's debt default

Months of government chaos and street protests, cause by corrupt
politicians, culminated on Saturday with an announcement that Lebanon
will default on loan payments scheduled for Monday. The $1.2 billion
loan payment is due on a portion of Lebanon's $91 billion debt.

Prime Minister Hassan Diab gave a televised speech to the nation,
saying the following:

Quote: "Today, we are paying the price for the mistakes of
past years. Must we bequeath them to our children and the coming
generations? The Lebanese lived a dream that was a delusion, as
though things were just fine, while Lebanon was drowning in more
debt and its interest, including in foreign currency, until the
gross public debt exceeded $90 billion, which makes up around 170%
of the domestic output.

The economic model which past policies imposed has proven to be a
failure, especially with its inability to stimulate investment and
create job opportunities. The state was stuck in a spiral of
deficit and endless borrowing. The reality today is that for every
1,000 Lebanese pounds of the state's revenues, more than 500
Lebanese pounds go to servicing the debt, instead of spending it
on healthcare, education and infrastructure.

This approach is not sustainable and cannot go on, especially as
Lebanese is today on the verge of becoming the most indebted
country in the world relative to the size of the economy. ...

Our debt has become greater than Lebanon can bear, and greater
than the ability of the Lebanese to meet interest payments.

This decision is, today, the only way to stop the bleeding and
protect the national interest. The Lebanese state will strive to
restructure its debt in line with the national interest by holding
fair, good faith negotiations with all creditors.

How can we pay creditors abroad when the Lebanese can not get
their money from their bank accounts? ... How can we pay creditors
and there are people in the streets who do not have the money to
buy a loaf of bread?"

Protests began on October 17 of last year, when the government
announced tax increases. The street protests have become increasingly
violent, with rock throwing and molotov cocktails. The economy has
gone from bad to worse. Inflation is soaring, and the banks are
restricting people from withdrawing their savings. The country is
running out of foreign reserves (dollars).

Part of Lebanon's problems is that Iran has had to cut back on aid to
Hezbollah, as a result of US sanctions on Iran. Lebanon's government
is largely in control of Hezbollah, which is considered in the West to
be an international terrorist organization. Because of Hezbollah, and
because Lebanon's government has refused to implement much needed
structural reforms, Western nations have been reluctant to extend more
aid to Lebanon than they already have.

The debate in Lebanon is whether they should appeal to the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) for debt relief. Hezbollah opposes
going to the IMF, since they consider the IMF to be a tool of the
United States. Furthermore, the IMF would insist on the structural
reform that Lebanon has been avoiding for years, and possibly decades,
including raising taxes.

As I've described in detail in the past, Lebanon has a "confessional
system of government," where power is divided based on sectarian
affiliation or confession, with Sunni Muslims, Christians, and Shia
Muslims each in total control of one portion of the government.

** 19-Jan-20 World View -- Violence surges in street protests in Lebanon as economy collapses
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200119


Because each sect has complete control of one portion of the
government, there are no checks and balances and corruption is
rampant, with the leaders of each sect able to steal as much money as
they like from their own part of the government. The three sects have
been fighting among themselves to gain as much money and power as
possible, leading now to economic default.

Next week, Lebanon will go around to the EU, IMF, World Bank, and
other organizations, begging for a bailout. However, no bailout will
be possible without structural reforms and severe austerity measures,
resulting in even larger and more violent street protests.

And, of course, it's worth noting in passing that Lebanon is right
next door to an ongoing international disaster in Syria's Idlib province,
which can blow up in any of several different ways.

** 6-Mar-20 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan travels to Moscow to beg Russia's Putin for Idlib ceasefire deal
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200306



---- Sources:

-- Why Divided Lebanon Has Left a Decision on Bond Default So Late
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...lt-so-late
(Bloomberg, 6-Mar-2020)

-- Lebanon to default on debt for first time amid financial crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/m...ial-crisis
(AFP, 7-Mar-2020)

-- Hassan Diab / FACTBOX-Lebanon was living a 'delusion' - excerpts
from PM's speech
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/int...pms-speech
(Reuters, 8-Mar-2020)

-- Lebanese leaders oppose paying sovereign debt: Presidency
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/07/lebanese...dency.html
(CNBC, 7-Mar-2020)

-- Lebanon defaults on its $1.2 bn Eurobond debt, PM says corruption
‘has eaten the state’
https://www.rt.com/business/482578-leban...orruption/
(Russia Today, 7-Mar-2020)

-- Lebanon to default on debt amid financial unrest
https://www.dw.com/en/lebanon-to-default...a-52676967
(Deutsche Welle, 7-Mar-2020)

-- Crisis-hit Lebanon to default on $1.2 billion loan payment
http://www.therepublic.com/2020/03/07/ml...-eurobond/
(AP, 7-Mar-2020)

[pbrower2a]

Obviously a country struggling to meet debt payments is having trouble meeting public expectations. Defaulting on debt may not be the big trouble that defaulting on public obligations is.

[Warren Dew]

To the contrary, defaulting on the debt implies that they have been spending more than they are taking in, and borrowing to make up the difference. Once they default, they won't be able to borrow any more, and their spending will have to be even more restricted.

In addition, some of that debt may be held by their own citizens.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 08-Mar-2020 World View: Markets plunging

Here are some current market prices, courtesy of Bloomberg TV:

dow futures down 985 3.82%
s&p futures down 124 4.18%
ten year treasury 0.76%
Australia asx down 310 4.86%
Oil plunging most since gulf war in 1991
Nymex crude 32.84 down 8.44 20.45%
Brent crude 26.32 down 8.95 19.77%

These figures may be a little out of date, as they seem
to keep falling as I'm typing them.

[pbrower2a]

(03-08-2020, 06:16 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 08-Mar-2020 World View: Markets plunging

Here are some current market prices, courtesy of Bloomberg TV:

dow futures down 985 3.82%
s&p futures down 124 4.18%
ten year treasury 0.76%
Australia asx down 310 4.86%
Oil plunging most since gulf war in 1991
Nymex crude 32.84 down 8.44 20.45%
Brent crude 26.32 down 8.95 19.77%

These figures may be a little out of date, as they seem
to keep falling as I'm typing them.

There's more to this meltdown than a respiratory virus.  To be sure, this virus is not likely to kill as many people as did HIV/AIDS.

Severe economic inequality because wages have been stagnant despite innovation and increased productivity ensures that there are few buyers for big-ticket goods. 

Price-to-earnings ratios are preposterously high and will soon face a correction.

The inverted yield curve will ensure a credit crunch that

(1) makes borrowing for high-ticket goods more difficult and costly

(2) businesses on life support that depend on further infusions of credit will die when the plug is pulled

(3) over-leveraged firms will be in deep trouble as credit costs will eat into operational revenue

(4) accounting scandals tend to be exposed as market meltdowns happen.