Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus laboratory

Navigator Wrote:> I cannot believe it, but it appears that the CCP is admitting that
> their own BioResearch lab in Wuhan may actually be the source of
> the virus.

> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...atory.html

It's hard to know what to make of this article, since the claims are
still speculative.

At the very least, it means that the Chinese themselves aren't sure
whether the source of the virus is natural or man-made.

I also wonder what's going to happen to the authors, Botao Xiao and
Lei Xiao. I hope they enjoy living in a bottomless pit.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Toll road sick care system

(02-16-2020, 05:08 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > I see problems with our toll road sick care system.

> 1. Some won't call 911 'cause they have no health insurance and
> they know that call will bankrupt them.
> 2. Private prisons are run for profit maximization only. Nothing
> else matters
> 3. Food insecure Americans probably have run down immune systems
> 4. Homelessness, nothing else to add here.
> 5. Bad American diet. I wonder if the average Chinese have this
> problem...

> I have other wonders as well. I wonder what the inability to pay
> mortgages and rents will do here. I also wonder about all of those
> other bills folks can't pay. Will they get booted out and hounded
> by debt collectors. I wonder what the Chinese do as well. I guess
> all of those unpaid bills mess up Social Credit Score.

It's amusing to see the usual kind of Trump-bashing spin put on
something like this.

The problem won't be that Obamacare subscribers with $10,000
deductibles will have insurance versus those without insurance because
they used to have insurance, but their policies were canceled by
Obamacare and "the stupidity of the American people" [Jonathan
Gruber].

The problem will be that a pandemic will overwhelm all hospitals and
health care providers, and since any infected patient will be a danger
to all around him, a way will be found to treat all people equally,
whether they have Obamacare or not.

For the same reason, prisoners will be treated.

China: "Almost 150.8 million people are malnourished. Given the size
of China's population, rates of 9.4 percent for stunting in children,
19.6 percent for anemia and 25 percent for overweight represent
significant national and global burdens." -- World Food Program
https://www.wfp.org/countries/china

When you're talking about China, it's good to separate the CCP from
the victimized Chinese people. The Chinese people in Taiwan, which is
governed by a Western-type democracy, and the Chinese people in Hong
Kong, which was governed until recently by Britain, have about five
times the income of the Chinese people governed by the CCP thugs.

As for things like mortgages, we already have some experiences with
that. In the mid-2000s, Gen-X financial engineers created tens of
trillions of dollars in fraudulent subprime mortgage backed synthetic
securities, and when the Gen-X scheme fell apart, millions of people
became bankrupted and/or homeless. I imagine that bank regulators
will try to apply lessons from that experience to a pandemic
situation, although many issues will be different.

[Ragnarök_62]

(02-16-2020, 06:22 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Toll road sick care system

(02-16-2020, 05:08 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   I see problems with our toll road sick care system.

>   1. Some won't call 911 'cause they have no health insurance and
>   they know that call will bankrupt them.
>   2. Private prisons are run for profit maximization only. Nothing
>   else matters
>   3. Food insecure Americans probably have run down immune systems
>   4. Homelessness, nothing else to add here.
>   5. Bad American diet. I wonder if the average Chinese have this
>   problem...

>   I have other wonders as well. I wonder what the inability to pay
>   mortgages and rents will do here. I also wonder about all of those
>   other bills folks can't pay. Will they get booted out and hounded
>   by debt collectors. I wonder what the Chinese do as well. I guess
>   all of those unpaid bills mess up Social Credit Score.  

It's amusing to see the usual kind of Trump-bashing spin put on
something like this.

The problem won't be that Obamacare subscribers with $10,000
deductibles will have insurance versus those without insurance because
they used to have insurance, but their policies were canceled by
Obamacare and "the stupidity of the American people" [Jonathan
Gruber].

The problem will be that a pandemic will overwhelm all hospitals and
health care providers, and since any infected patient will be a danger
to all around him, a way will be found to treat all people equally,
whether they have Obamacare or not.

For the same reason, prisoners will be treated.

China: "Almost 150.8 million people are malnourished. Given the size
of China's population, rates of 9.4 percent for stunting in children,
19.6 percent for anemia and 25 percent for overweight represent
significant national and global burdens." -- World Food Program
https://www.wfp.org/countries/china

When you're talking about China, it's good to separate the CCP from
the victimized Chinese people.  The Chinese people in Taiwan, which is
governed by a Western-type democracy, and the Chinese people in Hong
Kong, which was governed until recently by Britain, have about five
times the income of the Chinese people governed by the CCP thugs.

As for things like mortgages, we already have some experiences with
that.  In the mid-2000s, Gen-X financial engineers created tens of
trillions of dollars in fraudulent subprime mortgage backed synthetic
securities, and when the Gen-X scheme fell apart, millions of people
became bankrupted and/or homeless.  I imagine that bank regulators
will try to apply lessons from that experience to a pandemic
situation, although many issues will be different.

1, Gen-X did bad stuff.  OK, so what generation made up most of the regulators? Also, I don't think Tangelo and Dimon are X'ers, so there's that. It's actually our rotten system we have now, which is Neoliberalism. It's our national religion man, with shopping centers as temples. Neoliberalism is where people, resources, and capital are deployed worldwide in order to maximize profits. That's the only god, profits. There is no other. However, as I think we agree, China and the US are decoupling and this virus in pushing it along. That's the end , right there. We also agree about our bubble, right?  So it's all going away. Globalism is a dead man walking.

2. I think the bank regulators will screw up again.  That's because they're bought.  Since they were bought in 2008, and they're still bought now, meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Same as it always was.

3. Statistics.  OK, so I guess it's OK to compare the US to China and say we're a Shining City on a Hill. I think not.

https://medium.com/christian-citizen/a-l...3fe5c893f0

So, how about some other stats comparing/contrasting , say developed countries?
You know, like Taiwan.   I'd love nuke our sick care system for Taiwan's.   So let's support Taiwan and adopt it's healthcare system. Let's have them tell us how to do something we're stupid about. And if it means killing off insurance companies, outlawing lobbying, whacking our defense budget, etc.  Never let a good crisis go to waste.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 16-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus in Singapore

Quote:> The authorities are aware of all that, but are hoping that, at
> least when warmer weather comes in April or May, the virus will
> stop spreading.

> But I've heard several experts say that they don't know whether or
> not warm weather will stop the spread of the virus. And they don't
> know whether it will then start to spread in the southern
> hemisphere, in Australia, South America, South Africa, and so
> forth.

Guest Wrote:> Singapore is hot and humid year round.

Here's an article from Singapore that says that the virus is less
active in warmer weather so you should keep your air conditioners
turned off:

Quote:> "Coronavirus: Turn off air-conditioners and open
> windows to reduce risk of being infected, say experts

> SINGAPORE - On top of washing their hands and disinfecting
> surfaces, people need to switch off the air-conditioner, turn on
> the fan and get fresh air to reduce the chances of getting
> infected by the novel coronavirus.

> The reason is that while many unknowns remain about the virus,
> earlier studies have shown that viruses thrive better in cool, dry
> climates.

> That would make tropical Singapore, with its hot and tropical
> weather, less conducive for the virus to thrive."

> https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/h...k-of-being

However, it's not clear whether the author of this article actually
knows something or is just guessing.

[pbrower2a]

The usual advice for beating infections is to stay cool. Germs apparently love warmth, which explains how chilly nursing homes can be. No, that is not a reference to the staff. Staph -- yes.

Of course, viruses and bacteria operate differently, and viruses are difficult to kill.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Feb-2020 World View: UN declares Libya agreement to be a 'joke'

• Stephanie Williams, UN deputy special envoy for Libya

There was a press conference in Munich on Sunday, to achieve agreement
to stop supply weapons to factions in Libya.

Egypt and UAE have been supplying weapons to one side -- the Libyan
National Army (LNA), led by international renegade Khalifa Haftar.
Haftar is headquarted in the east, and is attacking Tripoli in the
west.

Turkey has been supplying weapons to the other side -- the
internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), led by
Fayez al-Serraj. The GNA is in Tripoli.

Sunday's Munich meeting was a follow-up to a meeting a month ago in
Berlin, when foreign ministers from a dozen countries agreed to an
arms embargo.

Turkey, Egypt and UAE ignored the agreements they made in Berlin, and
continued supplying arms as if nothing had happend.

So I watched some of the press conference Sunday in Munich, attended
by the same foreign ministers of the same countries as last month's
meeting in Berlin. I particularly watched the report given by
U.N. Deputy Special Representative to Libya Stephanie Williams.

Williams was practically in tears as she described the suffering in
Libya, and she said:

Quote: "The arms embargo has become a joke, we all really
need to step up here."

So, all the foreign ministers talked for a while, evaded answering a
few questions from the press, agreed to enforce the arms embargo,
stood for a photo shoot, and went home, having done their jobs. Today
they'll ignore the agreement and violate the arms embargo again.

In my article yesterday on Afghanistan, I described three laughable
peace agreements -- in Afghanistan, the Mideast, and Idlib (Syria).
All of these agreements are jokes that will never be honored.

And now we have this laughable Libya agreement, where these people
agree to an arms embargo and then just ignore what they agreed to.
But this is a little different than the other agreements: It isn't
just me that's calling it a joke. It's the UN representative.

Actually, everyone knows it's a joke. Everyone knows that the other
three agreements are also jokes.

What the hell are these people doing? And why am I here?

You know, every day I sit alone in my apartment for 14-16 hours per
day, reading the news, writing little articles. So I read stories
every day about babies starving, children raped, men beaten and
tortured, endless slaughter, mutilations, lost mothers, lost fathers,
lost children, starving children with exposed bones, enslavement,
child trafficking, child prostitution, child soldiers, and depraved
politicians hiring trolls to lie about their atrocities. Rarely does
a day go by when there aren't two or three stories that bring tears to
my eyes.

When I was young, I didn't understand what was going on, and I figured
that I was too young to understand, and that I'd understand when I was
older. Well, that turns out to be true. I'm old enough now, and I
understand. And a lot of these politicians are really sick
psychopaths. Bashar al-Assad is the worst, but Vladimir Putin, Seyed
Ali Hosseini Khamenei, and Xi Jinping aren't far behind.

And I even understand how it happens, thanks to Generational Dynamics.
It's really very simple. I've seen it in country after country. I've
started calling it the "democide pattern."

When two ethnic groups have a generational crisis war with each other,
they conduct the most horrendous atrocities on each other during the
war. The most sickening acts become the norm during such a war. The
people who conduct these atrocities become traumatized, and turn into
psychopaths and sociopaths. At the climax of the war, when the worst
and most sickening atrocities occur, the war ends. The top general of
the side that wins becomes head of government. This is a guy who
ordered one sickening atrocity after another, and now he can't stop.
He's the worst sociopath of all.

So I see these politicians coming out of the Democide Pattern,
committing the most horrendous, sickening acts every day. There's an
unfolding catastrophe in Idlib, as well as active Holocausts in
Xinjiang and Rakhine, but these politicians just agree to pretend it
isn't happening. Or they hold a committee meeting, say "this is not
acceptable!" and then go home. As far as they're concerned, people
are no better than cockroaches.

As I've written in the past: There are several Holocausts going on
today, and nobody cares. Actually, nobody cared about the Nazi-Jew
Holocaust while it was going on. To care about a Holocaust while it's
actually going on is too politically painful, because the politicians,
the trolls, the defenders, the acolytes, the deniers, the
cheerleaders, the propagandists, the psychopaths, the sociopaths, and
the collaborators all benefit from the Holocaust, and will protect it.
It's only after it's over that nobody stands to benefit, and then the
wise men can stand up and say, "Never Again!"

So every day, every hour, every minute, I ask myself, why the hell am
I alive? I have no place in this world. Even if it weren't for the
fact that I'm going to run out of money and then I'll be forced to
kill myself, even forgetting that problem, there's still no place in
this world for me. This is an insane world which makes no sense to me
at all.

And the feeling is mutual. The world would like to get rid of me as
well. Here's a typical conversation:

Quote: Recruiter: Hi, John. I saw your sensational resume
online, and you have exactly the skills that my new client is
looking for. Do you have a few minutes to talk about a new
software engineering role?

Me: Sure! But it's really a waste of time, because I'm over 60,
and nobody is hiring anyone over 60.

Recruiter: Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. [pause] Well, do you know
anyone younger with the same skills?

Me: [Click]

The above is not a joke. It actually happened, and something like it
happens every week.

So on both a global and personal level, I have absolutely no place in
this world. On the global level, politicians make ridiculous
agreements that no one cares about, and on the personal level I don't
even exist.

Yeah, I know, thousands of people read the articles I write, and they
care. But for all but a few of them, the articles are like comic
strips that you can enjoy reading every day as long as they're free.
No one considers them to be worth anything, or worth paying a salary
for. Someone told me that they make thoughtful points, which means
that he considers them like Peanuts comic strips. If I disappeared, I
would be forgotten by all but a few people within a couple of weeks.
I'm like a cartoon character in my own comic strip. Why do I keep
doing this? I keep asking myself and never have an answer, except
you've gotta do something to fill the time till you run out of money.

Did all of you see the movie "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" It's like
I used to live in the real world, but somehow I got abducted by
a Toon, and now I'm trapped in Toontown, and I've turned into a Toon
myself, with no way back to the real world.

And remember "The Dip"? It's impossible to kill a Toon since, after
all, they're Toons. But Judge Doom has found a way, with
The Dip, a mixture of turpentine, acetone, and benzine.
When Judge Doom throws a Toon into a vat of The Dip, then the
Toon dissolves.

So today, I'm trapped in Toontown and can't get out. Some politicians
are using The Dip in Syria, Burma, China, and elsewhere. And other
politicians scream, "this is not acceptable!" but then pretend it
isn't happening. And then there are the Democrats. Have you seen the
Democrats? They compete with each other every day to prove to the
world that they're the stupidest Toons of all.

And I keep wondering, why the hell am I here in Toontown? And if I've
turned into a Toon, and I can't get out of Toontown, then at least
tell me how I get access to that vat of The Dip.

Sorry about this long rant, and sorry to make it all about me. But
let's face it, I'm right. Look around. We do live in Toontown.

---- Sources:

-- U.N. says Libya arms embargo a 'joke', demands accountability
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germa...SKBN20A09X
(Reuters, 16-Feb-2020)

-- Libya arms embargo is a joke, says UN envoy as ceasefire talks
continue
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/f...alks-stall
(Guardian, London, 16-Feb-2020)

-- Powers renew pledge to uphold Libya arms embargo
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/p...27169.html
(Al Jazeera, 16-Feb-2020)

-- Who Framed Roger Rabbit - plot summary
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096438/plotsummary
(IMDB)

----- Related articles:

** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200216


** 6-Dec-18 World View -- New head of US Central Command says Afghanistan war is unsustainable
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181206


** Guess what? British politicians and journalists are just as ignorant as Americans
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...m#e070114b

[Warren Dew]

I appreciate your information. I have kids, so I want to keep track of the progress of the crisis so I can keep them out of harm's way to the extent that I can.

I tried to make a donation, but Paypal doesn't like my credit card for some reason.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 17-Feb-2020 World View: CDC and Coronavirus

Guest Wrote:> The Chinese Government is one gigantic, compulsive liar. That is a
> known fact. Everyone knows that the CCP lies. Perhaps not about
> ALL things, but about TOO MANY. It is natural that you refuse to
> believe someone who is known to always lie. I think that is the
> reason why so many people believe that this virus is a
> chinese-made bioweapon...because the chinese Government denies it
> and the rest of the world (through decades-long experience) simply
> doesn't believe them. And for good reason -- you don't believe a
> known liar.

> Governments around the world have ben BEGGING for over a MONTH
> that the CCP please allow foreign scientists and medical helpers
> to enter China to help resolve this crisis. And China VEHEMENTLY
> refuses them to enter. Why? Because if the world were allowed to
> enter, the world would SEE the monumental mountain of LIES that
> the CCP has built up in the past few months.

> Maybe the CCP is not lying about the fact that this virus is not
> man-made. Maybe. But they are lying about the severity of the
> situation, about the infection numbers and death numbers. Why do I
> believe that? Because the CCP is a well-known, pathological liar,
> and if there was no lie to hide, they would not refuse the outside
> world to come in and help.

The Chinese have apparently approved the World Health Organization
(WHO) team, and it has arrived in China. The team will include "some
Americans," according to reports, but whether they're CDC scientists
or just American politicians in some Chinese-funded organization is
not known. WHO is dependent on the Chinese for a big chunk of its
funding, and so the WHO will do as the Chinese tell them.

Also, it's not known whether the WHO team will be permitted to visit
Wuhan and Hubei, the epicenter. If not, then the WHO team is
just for show, and will accomplish nothing.

There's a growing body of circumstantial evidence that the Wuhan
coronavirus is man-made, and did not occur naturally. However,
whether it's a bioweapon or had some other research purpose is still
speculation. Also, it's thought that it was introduced into the
wild through an animal bite, but that's just speculation also.

-- Americans on WHO team to assess crisis, China says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/...china-says
(SCMP, Hong Kong, 17-Feb-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 18-Feb-2020 World View: Turkey faces imminent crisis in Idlib, Syria


The Syrian regime, backed by Russian warplanes, is moving rapidly
through Idlib province. Syrian and Russian airplanes are particularly
targeting hospitals and markets.

This is leading to the usual cries of "This is not acceptable!" from
the usual United Nations officials.

Hundreds of thousands of additional Syrians, mostly women and children,
have been forced to leave their homes, and now there are over
900,000 of these Arab Sunnis packed along the border with Turkey.
The weather is bitterly cold, and many of them are forced to sleep
outdoors with little or no protection.

Syria's sociopathic war criminal president Bashar al-Assad gave a
televised speech on Monday reaffirming his intention to take control
of Idlib as quickly as possible. With Turkey's border closed to
Syria, this puts the lives 900,000+ Sunni Arabs at imminent risk.

I've written many times in the last year or two that there is a
massive disaster unfolding in Idlib. Bashar al-Assad will threaten
the massive slaughter of a million innocent men, women and children,
current huddled along Turkey's border. If Turkey opens its border,
then they'll flood into Turkey as refugees, and from there into
Europe.

Turkey's other option is to send its army to fight al-Assad's Syrian
Arab army. That army has become so weak that Turkey would have no
problm defeating it, but then Turkey would be at war with Iran and
Russia.

According to one analyst I heard, Russia has been preparing for this
day since 2015. After Turkey shot down a Russian plane in 2015,
Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey that eventually forced Turkey to
back down. Russia has also provided Turkey with a nuclear power plant
and a pipeline, and an S-400 anti-aircraft missile system.

According to the analyst, Russia has been preparing to use these
developments as leverage, to leave Turkey with no choice but to do as
Russia says. Under these circumstances, Turkey may be forced to open
its border, and allow the refugees to flow into Turkey and Europe.

Things are moving quickly now, and these choices may have to be made
within the next week or two.


---- Sources:

-- Analysis Turkey and Russia Clash Over Syria, and Idlib's Residents
Are Paying the Price
https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news...-1.8552759
(Haaretz, 18-Feb-2020)

-- As Assad advances in Idlib – Turkey finds itself in a tough spot
between Trump and Putin
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syr...42616.html
(Independent, London, 18-Feb-2020)


---- Related articles:

** 16-Feb-20 World View -- US and Taliban to sign laughable 'reduction in violence' agreement in Afghanistan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200216


** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200211


** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200209


** 1-Dec-18 World View -- Evidence grows of Assad's 'final solution', extermination of Arab Sunnis in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e181201

[pbrower2a]

Thank you, Donald Trump, for betraying the Kurds and the democratic opposition in Syria. [/snark]

[John J. Xenakis]

** 19-Feb-2020 World View: Syria crisis

(02-19-2020, 01:17 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Thank you, Donald Trump, for betraying the Kurds and the
> democratic opposition in Syria. [/snark]

But the Syria crisis began in 2011, got much worse in 2015 as Russia
and Iran entered the war, and the US was supplying tens of billions of
dollars to Iran, which Iran used to fund terrorist and military
activities in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. Remind me, who
was president? Was it that brilliant master of foreign policy, whose
name I forget, and his bumbling secretary of state?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Feb-20 World View -- Iranian nationals in Qoms die of coronavirus

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iranian nationals in Qoms die of coronavirus
  
• Syria war in Idlib close to explosion
  

****
**** Iranian nationals in Qoms die of coronavirus
****

Two elderly Iranian nationals died of coronavirus in a Qoms hospital
on Wednesday. They had not recently traveled outside of the Qoms
area.

This is significant because it means that they must have been infected
communally as much as two weeks ago, which indicates that there must
be a cluster of cases in Qoms.

This is the kind of outbreak we expect to see increasingly frequently.
Iran has a close relationship with China, as do many African
countries, and many individuals travel between China and these
countries.

A coronavirus outbreak in Iran could quickly spread to Iraq and Syria.

****
**** Syria war in Idlib close to explosion
****

The situation in Idlib, which I've been reporting on almost every day,
is about to explode. On Wednesday, Erdogan gave a speech threatening
both al-Assad and Putin. In the meantime, al-Assad's army is pushing
a million people, mostly women and children, towards to the border
with Turkey. It won't be long before coronavirus starts spreading
among those million people.

And then either Turkey and Syria will be at war, or else Turkey will
open the border and allow those million refugees with coronavirus to
flow into Europe.

There are hard deadlines and hard positions here. It seems unlikely
that anyone will back down, and so this situation is expected to
explode by March 1.

Sources:

• Coronavirus: Iran reports two suspected fatal cases at Qom hospital (BBC, 19-Feb-2020)
  
• Two die of coronavirus in Iran, first fatalities in Middle East (Al-Jazeera, 19-Feb-2020)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Qoms, coronavirus,
China, Africa, Syria, Idlib, Turkey, Russia

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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Feb-20 World View -- Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)
  
• The V-Shaped Recovery
  
• Credibility of Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
  
• The CDC and the bioweapon rumors
  
• Xi Jinping and 'Social Instability'
  
• Developing a Vaccine
  
• Singapore - a coronavirus bellwether
  
• Japan - another bellwether
  
• Coronavirus in Africa
  
• War zones - Africa and Mideast
  
• The explosive situation in Idlib, Syria
  
• The Future of Coronavirus
  
• V-Shaped Recovery -- learning from the financial crisis
  

****
**** Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)
****


Scientists at the Wuhan Virology Institute wear high-grade hazmat suits. On the institute's grounds is the Wuhan Biosafety Laboratory, which is designated to study the most dangerous pathogens, including viruses like Ebola and SARS. There are denied rumors that Covid-19 was man made at the Wuhan lab. (Daily Mail)

There's a great deal of hope in the air of a "V-shaped" recovery,
meaning that the virus is causing massive economic problems now, but
this will be followed a huge recovery, as things return to "normal" in
April or May. Other people, perhaps a lot more realistic, don't
expect resolution until well into summe.

This article describes the main issues surrounding the coronavirus.
The last section, "V-Shaped Recovery -- learning from the financial
crisis," describes how the virus crisis was permanently change
this generations behavior permanently.

****
**** The V-Shaped Recovery
****

China is claiming that the virus has now been contained because the
number of new cases each day has gone down for a few days. In the
West, the dream is of a "V-shaped recovery," where everybody will be
hurt in Q1, but then all that lost business will be regained in Q2.
In particular, the widespread hope is that the warmer weather in April
would bring an end to coronavirus, at least until the Fall, and by
then measures can be taken to prevent further spread. That's the
hope.

However, many people believe that the Q2 V-shaped recovery scenario,
while possible, is less likely than a scenario that extends well into
summer.

In a television interview of 2/19, Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National
Institutes of Health was asked how certain he was that the virus would
be contained and not allowed to spread in the US. He said (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"Given the situation the way it is today, we've
successfully done that with the 15 cases that we have - 13 of
which were travel from Wuhan, and two of which were spouses of the
travelers. If we get a worldwide pandemic, where you have
sustained transmission in multiple regions about the world, then
it's gonna be very difficult to adequately contain it anywhere. I
think we did do a reasonably good job, but it's not going to be
absolute."<END QUOTE>

Fauci is a leading American expert. You can try to read between the
lines and decide whether he's just being cautious or whether he's
sending a signal that far worse is yet to come, but either way, a
V-shaped recovery is very far from certain.

In particular, he makes it clear that one scenario is that we may be
facing a massive worldwide pandemic, in which the world will be a very
different place by summer.

Fauci described the virus as follows: "But clearly this is a highly
transmissable virus that does have a disturbing level of mortality."

There are many conflicting reports about the spread of the virus in
America and other countries, and unfortunately there's no reason to
believe any of them.

****
**** Credibility of Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
****

Since the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) lies about pretty much
everything, few people believe that China is telling the truth about
the situation in China.

The Chinese were apparently aware of the virus as early as October,
and heavily censored any information about it. In fact, a
correspondent whose sister was a nurse working in Wuhan told me that
the Chinese began building new hospitals in Wuhan in November, which
is considerably earlier than they admitted to knowing about the virus.
A Chinese scientist, Li Wenliang, warned his colleagues of a potential
"SARS-like" disease in December 2019, but was harshly punished, and he
later died of the disease. Other Chinese scientists have been jailed
for describing what's happening.

This week, the CCP expelled three WSJ reporters from China, because of
an opinion piece that appeared in the paper, criticizing Xi Jinping's
handling of the coronavirus crisis, and referring to China as the
"sick man of Asia." The three reporters had nothing to do with the
opinion piece, but they were expelled anyway, and WSJ has now
apologized to the CCP thugs for offending them. This is how the CCP
extends its censorship around the world, since the WSJ will now have
to refrain from publishing information or else suffer other
retribution. The CCP imposes similar worldwide censorship about many
other subjects, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong riots, the South China sea,
or the Uighur genocide. Any publication anywhere in the world can be
punished by the CCP for publishing information that the CCP doesn't
like.

In January, as the size of the epidemic in Wuhan was becoming publicly
known, the United States began placing travel restrictions on
travelers from China. This infuriated the CCP, not only because they
tend to whine about everything that America does, but also because the
move gave cover to many other countries to do the same, and also to
Central and Southeast Asian countries to close their borders to China.

****
**** The CDC and the bioweapon rumors
****

In January, the American CDC, which has the best and most experienced
virologists in the world, offered to send people to Wuhan in January,
as the size of the infection was becoming apparent.

China not only blocked the CDC scientists, but at same time the
foreign ministry issued statements blaming the United States for not
offering to help. This is a typical example of the Chinese talking
out of both sides of their mouths.

There has been a World Health Organization (WHO) team that has been
permitted to enter the country in the last couple of days, and that
team contains a couple of CDC scientists. But according to reports on
Wednesday, the WHO team is still being blocked from visiting Wuhan,
and they're being confined to hotel rooms where they're being fed
filtered data by the CCP.

Last week on Friday morning, US Health and Human Services (HHS)
secretary Alex Azar was interviewed on CNBC, where he harshly
criticized China for its lack of transparency with regard to the
coronavirus emergency.

He was asked, "Do you know for a fact that this virus occurred
naturally, and not in some kind of P4 bioweapons lab?" He evaded the
question with this response: (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"We need to be very careful not to engage in
speculation here, until we have data and evidence. We need
transparent access to all first generation genetic sequencing.
And we gotta get on the ground and do what we always do -- work
shoulder to shoulder with the Chinese scientific experts. To just
look at raw data, and solve these questions."<END QUOTE>

Azar's point is that question won't be resolved until the CDC
scientists, the best in the world, are able to go to Wuhan and examine
the evidence. This was a message to the CCP that there will be more
unpleasant rumors, and the Chinese have only themselves to blame for
those rumors. If China continues to block the CDC, then they have no
right to whine about rumors that begin.

****
**** Xi Jinping and 'Social Instability'
****

The CCP gives the need for "social stability" as the reason for the
harsh censorship, and for expelling, jailing or torturing reporters.
By "social stabilty" they mean that they fear that people will turn
against Xi Jinping and the CCP.

Xi Jinping's own credibility is badly damaged. He said that everyone
would be back to work by now, and everyone knows that's far from true.
Furthermore, severe restrictions are still on in Wuhan, and regional
authorities around the country are still imposing local restrictions
on travel. China's entire economy is all but locked down, and tens of
millions of migrant workers who went home for the Lunar New Year are
unable to return to their jobs.

Many people have been out of work almost two months -- many of those
will not be able to afford food, or pay rent. This could generate
anti-CCP activism. Historically, this is exactly the kind of
environment that leads to an anti-Chinese government rebellion.

There are already some signs of resistance and criticism of the CCP in
Guangzho province, which is adjacent to Hong Kong, including the
arrest of Xu Zhiyong, the leader of the New Citizens Movement, which
is advocating greater freedoms.

This is highly significant. China's history is filled with hundreds
of crisis wars in the form of massive internal rebellions (civil
wars). The last two of these massive rebellions were the the Taiping
Rebellion (1850-64) and Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49) -- and
both of these rebellions began in Guangzho province and spread north.
China is overdue for a new massive civil war, and any sort of economic
setback could be the trigger. The CCP leadership are very well aware
of this history, and are extremely paranoid about it.

****
**** Developing a Vaccine
****

Most commentators agree that the coronavirus will remain an active
threat until a vaccine is developed. Estimates are that some
companies will begin testing a vaccine within a couple of months, but
no vaccine will be ready for widespread use for at least 6-12 months,
and possibly longer.

In the meantime, some existing drugs are being tested. For example,
doctors in Thailand said they appeared to have some success in
treating severe cases of the coronavirus by combining Tamiflu with
anti-HIV drugs.

However, those who develop severe cases and survive often have damaged
heart muscles, and many have developed heart attacks.

****
**** Singapore - a coronavirus bellwether
****

Singapore is a good place to watch as a bellwether of what path the
coronavirus emergency is going to take for several reasons.

• Singapore is a modern, developed country, with a good health
  services infrastructure, and yet its small size makes it easier to
  observe.
  
  
• Singapore has reported one of the highest numbers of confirmed
  coronavirus cases outside China. Singapore has had 81 confirmed
  cases, 24 of which have been discharged.
  
  
• Initially, the coronavirus cases were all travelers from China.
  But since then, it's spread communally, even resulting in the
  world-famous incident of infecting several skiers at the ironically
  named Les Contamines ski chalet in the French Alps.
  
  
• However, an important research question has not yet been answered:
  Were all those communal infections first generation (all infected by a
  single traveler from China) or were they multi-generational (A infects
  B who infects C)? The answer to this question will help experts
  understand how much it will spread in other countries.
  
  
• I've heard some analysts say that Singapore has the outbreak under
  control. I've heard others say that the virus will "burn through" the
  entire population. So Singapore will provide a small test case for
  whether a full-scale pandemic can be prevented.
  
  
• Singapore lies right on the equator, and so it's entering a period
  of the hottest weather of the year. So Singapore provides an early
  warning whether warmer summer weather will slow the virus. Also,
  Singapore will enter a period of cooler weather in May, so Singapore
  provides an early warning whether the virus will spreading again the
  in the northern hemisphere in the Fall.

So, putting everything together, Singapore can provide an early
warning for what will happen in the rest of the world.

****
**** Japan - another bellwether
****

Japan is a bellwether in another sense.

Japan has over 59 confirmed coronavirus cases -- not counting the 454
cases that were identified in the Diamond Princess cruise ship. New
cases continue to emerge in prefectures around the country, and some
analysts are expressing fear that the infections will not be
controlled until infections are widespread.

So Japan is good country to watch to see how a developed Western
country deals with a spreading coronavirus epidemic, and possibly
a pandemic.

Japan has canceled a number of international events because of the
virus. The Summer Olympics is scheduled to be in Tokyo, and if that
event is canceled, it will cause long-range damage to Japan's economy.

Update: As this is being written, reports indicate a large outbreak
in South Korea. This may also be a bellwether.

****
**** Coronavirus in Africa
****

Countries like Singapore and Japan are developed countries with
sophisticated medical services infrastructure, capable of handling a
coronavirus outbreak -- although that claim is currently being tested
in both countries.

But there are many countries with no such infrastructure, including
many African, Mideast and Asian countries.

Africa appears to be extremely safe, since there have been almost no
reported cases there. But that's because no one is being tested. If
you don't look for cases, then you won't find any cases. And in fact,
Africa has a number of Chinese enclaves, thanks to the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI).

As of Feb 11, Africa does not have any confirmed cases, but suspected
patients have been quarantined in Ethiopia, Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire, and
Botswana.

The World Health Organization is providing support to Africa, and is
providing prioritized report to 13 countries with Chinese enclaves,
since there is frequent travel between these countries and China. The
13 countries area: Algeria, Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic
Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius,
Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.

There's still an ongoing Ebola crisis in eastern DRC, in the middle of
a continuing ethnic war. International NGOs have been successful in
preventing the further spread of Ebola by standard techniques such as
contact tracing and quarantining people with symptoms, and aggressive
use of newly developed vaccines.

African officials are saying that the same techniques will be used to
control coronavirus outbreaks. However, there are significant
differences. Coronavirus spreads much more easily than Ebola, and
there's no coronavirus vaccine. Few people believe that a coronavirus
outbreak will be contained.

****
**** War zones - Africa and Mideast
****

There are several ongoing wars in Africa and the Mideast -- DRC,
Central African Republic, Mali, Cameroon, Yemen, Syria. There are
smaller ongoing clashes in other countries.

Sooner or later, there will be a coronavirus outbreak in one of these
war zones.

****
**** The explosive situation in Idlib, Syria
****

I want to call particular attention to war in the Idlib province in
northwestern Syria. I've been writing about this situation for
several years on the Generational Dynamics web site and forum.

This started as the Syria civil war in 2011, and it's evolved to a
final explosive confrontation in Idlib. There are four million
people, mostly women and children, packed into Idlib.

On Monday, Syria's sociopathic monster president Bashar al-Assad, the
worst war criminal so far this century, announced that his army will
mop up the rest of Idlib soon.

On Wednesday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave a speech
threatening both Syria's president al-Assad and his ally, Russia's
president Putin. In the meantime, al-Assad's army is pushing a
million people, mostly women and children, towards to the border with
Turkey.

It has just emerged that there's a cluster of coronavirus cases in
Qoms, Iran, with two deaths. It won't be long before these cases
spread into Iraq and Syria, and could start spreading among those
million people in Idlib.

And then either Turkey and Syria will be at war, or else Turkey will
open the border and allow those million refugees with coronavirus to
flow into Europe.

There are hard deadlines and hard positions here. It seems unlikely
that anyone will back down, and so this situation is expected to
explode by March 1.

****
**** The Future of Coronavirus
****

The coronavirus is spreading around the globe, and it is not known
today whether most countries will be able to control their local
outbreaks, or whether there will be a global pandemic. These
questions can't be answered today, so as I wrote in the past, it's
best to wait until early March to make new business decisions.

Economic activity has almost come to a standstill in China, as the
virus has affected global tourism, trade, manufacturing and
export/import. With many Chinese businesses shut down, supply chains
have been disrupted. Companies and countries with a high dependency
on Chinese components and parts will continue to suffer.

****
**** V-Shaped Recovery -- learning from the financial crisis
****

Politicians, analysts and economists who are hoping for a "V-Shaped
Recovery" are making the same mistake that they made after the 2008
financial crisis.

Once worst of the 2008 financial crisis ended, everyone assumed that
things would return to "normal." Economists would look at their 1980s
vintage economics models, and conclude that there would be an
extremely quick economic recovery.

What they overlooked is that people in the 1980s, during a
generational Unraveling era, behavr very differently than people in
the 2000s, during a generational Crisis era.

That particular difference in behavior can be measured by the
"Velocity of Money." This measures how quickly ordinary people spend
money they've received, versus saving the money in the bank. I
haven't updated this graph since 2017, but it shows the Velocity of
Money since 1919:


Velocity of money, 1919 to 2017 (St. Louis Fed Fred Graph #366117)

=// https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?categ..._id=282038
=// https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?categ..._id=366117

As you can see from this graph, the velocity started falling in 2000,
when the Nasdaq stock market crash occurred, and then started falling
very sharply since the 2008 financial crisis, and hasn't stopped
falling.

This indicates that the Nasdaq crash and the financial crisis were
events that permanently changed the behavior of the current
generations of people. They are permanently reluctant to spend money.
So the 1980s economic models are completely, totally wrong.

So I believe that we can apply this same lesson to the coronavirus
crisis. The assumption behind the "V-Shaped Recovery" is that as soon
as the virus is more or less contained, businesses will quickly return
to their pre-virus levels of activity. That may happen if the virus
is contained quickly over the summer.

But if there's a larger and longer-lasting crisis, or a pandemic, then
I believe that most people will be extremely reluctant to behave as
they did before the virus spread, and I believe that the economic
impact could be far more serious.

Sources:

• Americans on WHO team to assess crisis, China says (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 17-Feb-2020)
  
• Xu Zhiyong, New Citizens Movement, Guangzhou / Chinese activist detained after calling Xi Jinping 'clueless' on coronavirus crisis (Guardian, London, 19-Feb-2020)
  
• Coronavirus: Turn off air-conditioners and open windows to reduce risk of being infected, say experts (Straits Times, Singapore, 10-Feb-2020)
  
• Coronavirus in Singapore: Analysis of all 75 cases so far (Straits Times, Singapore, 9-Feb-2020)
  
• Singapore will likely spend big to soften economic blow from coronavirus outbreak (CNBC, 16-Feb-2020)
  
• Singapore Cuts Growth Outlook, Plans Stimulus Amid Virus (Bloomberg, 16-Feb-2020)
  
• Singapore sets aside $4 billion to help businesses and households amid coronavirus outbreak (CNBC, 18-Feb-2020)
  
• Coronavirus: 4 new cases including 3 linked to Grace Assembly of God church; 21 cases now linked to the cluster (Straits Times, Singapore, 18-Feb-2020)
  
• Hundreds of Americans flown home from cruise ship, 14 with coronavirus (Reuters, 17-Feb-2020)
  
• Hong Kong protesters rally against planned virus quarantine centers (Reuters, 16-Feb-2020)
  
• Will Coronavirus shift global investment from China to India? (India Today, 13-Feb-2020)
  
• Coronavirus crisis: It's time for India Inc to create opportunities (India Times, 16-Feb-2020)
  
• India - China trade / Coronavirus and Indo-China trade (India Times, 11-Feb-2020)
  
• Japan plans HIV drug trials to fight coronavirus as Diamond Princess cases rise (Reuters, 18-Feb-2020)
  
• Japan to trial HIV medications on coronavirus patients (Fox News, 18-Feb-2020)
  
• Japan enters 'new phase' of coronavirus outbreak (NHK World, Japan, 17-Feb-2020)
  
• Coronavirus threatens Japan rebound as GDP falls most in 5 years (Nikkei, 18-Feb-2020)
  
• Japan’s coronavirus support wins praise in China, showing further signs of improving relations (South China Morning Post, Hong Kong, 18-Feb-2020)
  
• Coronavirus Impact: Pay Attention To Shanghai, And Japan Infection Rates (Forbes, 16-Feb-2020)
  
• Kim Jong Un makes first public appearance in 22 days amid virus outbreak (Reuters, 15-Feb-2020)
  
• Africa prepares for coronavirus (Lancet, 15-Feb-2020)
  
• The coronavirus is about to hit Africa. Here are the big challenges. (Washington Post, 18-Feb-2020)
  
• Alibaba earnings top expectations but coronavirus is having a ‘negative impact’ on the business (Market Watch, 13-Feb-2020)
  
• Thailand / Coronavirus / Virus hits local computer supplies (Bangkok Post, 14-Feb-2020)
  
• Latest on coronavirus spreading in China and beyond (Reuters, 16-Feb-2020)
  
• Mobile World Congress / 5G Stocks: China Coronavirus Looms Over Supply Chain, MWC Cancelled (Investors.com, 17-Feb-2020)
  
• ‘Black swan’ coronavirus casts its shadow over the global economy (Guardian, London, 15-Feb-2020)
  
• Did coronavirus originate in Chinese government laboratory? (Daily Mail, London, 17-Feb-2020)
  
• Senator Cotton: China Refusing to Hand Over Evidence About Wuhan BioLab (Summit News, 17-Feb-2020)
  
• Japan Olympics / Beijing Finally Accepts American Infectious-Disease Experts, Weighs Delay Of Annual Party Meeting (Zero Hedge, 17-Feb-2020)
  
• 'More Than A Disgrace' - The WHO's 'Industrially-Necessary' Doctor Tedros Should Go! (Zero Hedge, 17-Feb-2020)

Related Articles:

• Iranian nationals in Qoms die of coronavirus (20-Feb-2020)
  
  
• Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib (09-Feb-2020)
  
  
• Wuhan coronavirus hits China's economy hard, threatens world economy (02-Feb-2020)
  
  
• MIT criticizes 'toxic atmosphere' targeting Chinese students (30-Jun-2019)
  
  
• Hong Kong protests show historic split between northern and southern China (22-Jun-2019)
  
  
• Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
  
  
• The velocity of money keeps plummeting, indicating no economic growth (04-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Wuhan Coronavirus, Covid-19,
Wuhan Virology Institute, Wuhan Biosafety Laboratory,
Anthony Fauci, National Institutes of Health,
World Health Organization, WHO, Centers for Disease Control, CDC,
Alex Azar, Health and Human Services, HHS,
Li Wenliang, Xi Jinping, Xu Zhiyong, New Citizens Movement,
Taiping Rebellion, Mao's Communist Revolution,
Singapore, Japan, Diamond Princess, Summer Olympics, South Korea,
Africa, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Ebola,
Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, DRC,
Central African Republic, Mali, Cameroon, Yemen,
Iran, Qoms, Iraq, Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Velocity of Money

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 21-Feb-2020 World View: Velocity of money

richard5za Wrote:> John, I was an economics major but that was in 1968 so perhaps I
> am an economics liability rather than a reliable source of
> information. However we learned that GDP = Money supply X velocity
> of money. (No doubt the 2020 version is more sophisticated) So I
> suspect that the decline in velocity is at least partly due to the
> monetary authorities pumping more and more money into the
> system.

That's an interesting analysis. You're right about the formula,
though there's an extra factor: "Inflation rate X GDP = Money supply X
velocity". It's the fall in velocity that explains why inflation has
remained low.

With regard to the size of the money supply, we don't live in 1800s,
when the only kind of money was printed money, or even in the 1600s,
when the only kind of money was gold coins and tulip certificates.

In 2008, the Bank of International Settlements said that there are
over $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) worth of credit derivatives and
other structured finance securities in the portfolios of financial
institutions around the world.

Money created through debt is just as real as the money "printed" by
the US government. If your $50K home increases in value during a real
estate bubble to $500K, and you refinance your home and borrow $400K
against your home, then you can spend that money on cars, groceries,
sex, or whatever you want. It's the same money.

So the size of the money supply has actually been falling
substantially since 2008, and central banks "printing" money has not
really added to the money supply at all, but instead has replaced the
money in the money supply that disappeared as the bubble collapsed.

The only real point I was making was that a major crisis can change
generational behavior permanently, whether it's a financial crisis or
a coronavirus crisis.

[pbrower2a]

(02-21-2020, 04:27 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 21-Feb-2020 World View: Velocity of money

richard5za Wrote:>   John, I was an economics major but that was in 1968 so perhaps I
>   am an economics liability rather than a reliable source of
>   information. However we learned that GDP = Money supply X velocity
>   of money. (No doubt the 2020 version is more sophisticated) So I
>   suspect that the decline in velocity is at least partly due to the
>   monetary authorities pumping more and more money into the
>   system.

That's an interesting analysis.  You're right about the formula,
though there's an extra factor: "Inflation rate X GDP = Money supply X
velocity".  It's the fall in velocity that explains why inflation has
remained low.

With regard to the size of the money supply, we don't live in 1800s,
when the only kind of money was printed money, or even in the 1600s,
when the only kind of money was gold coins and tulip certificates.

In 2008, the Bank of International Settlements said that there are
over $1 quadrillion ($1,000 trillion) worth of credit derivatives and
other structured finance securities in the portfolios of financial
institutions around the world.

Money created through debt is just as real as the money "printed" by
the US government.  If your $50K home increases in value during a real
estate bubble to $500K, and you refinance your home and borrow $400K
against your home, then you can spend that money on cars, groceries,
sex, or whatever you want.  It's the same money.

So the size of the money supply has actually been falling
substantially since 2008, and central banks "printing" money has not
really added to the money supply at all, but instead has replaced the
money in the money supply that disappeared as the bubble collapsed.

The only real point I was making was that a major crisis can change
generational behavior permanently, whether it's a financial crisis or
a coronavirus crisis.

The people getting the money aren't spending it or investing it in plant and equipment. A real-estate bubble? Forget it; too many people have been burned. We are unlikely to see big new (at least in the aggregate) investment in real estate until the Crisis ends. It is easier to profiteer from shortages that result from a gross imbalance of the economy (economic activity concentrated in a few areas). Let's put it this way: the local economy is overheated in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, but Fresno is in a depression. New York, Washington, and Boston are fabulously active in their economies, but places like Hartford, Springfield MA, Scranton, and Baltimore are in the dumps. Need I discuss Appalachia and the Rust Belt?  


Velocity of money relates to consumption and investment, and when both collapse, velocity does too. I can excuse WWII because America was not going to supply  private cars, new housing, or expensive consumer goods when it had bigger concerns.  

MV=nPT explains much (M is money, V is velocity, P is price level, and T is the size of an average transaction). Both MV and nRT express GDP. 

We are not going to have a housing bubble; we have been burned. There is much private debt that will not be paid because people lack the means of paying it. Private debt from medical costs to debt for  worthless education to investments that are both unprofitable and unmarketable are themselves bubbles.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Wuhan coronavirus is here

Guest Wrote:> I live in Korea. The Wuhan virus is now just two blocks away from
> me. Confirmed.

> Surgical masks are sold out, but I still have a few left. I bought
> some a month ago. I regret I didn't buy more.

> People can't believe it. Wuhan is here.

richard5za Wrote:> You have my heart felt good wishes. Go well. I live in Africa and
> it could be a humanitarian disaster

Good luck to both of you.

Yes, I've been following the news of how Covid has spread from the
southern city of Daegu across the country. Apparently it spread
because of a large religious service of the Shincheonji religious
group.

Here in America, the mainstream news media are almost totally ignoring
Covid-19, in favor of really important issues, such as those related
to the phrase "horse-faced lesbian." CNN, for example, a network that
hates religion since they think that any mention of religion might
benefit the loathed Trump, is blaming the coronavirus spread in South
Korea on the Shincheonji religious group, which the BBC refers to as
"a fringe religious movement." They would like you to believe that
it's the "fringe religious movement," rather than the sainted CCP,
that's causing the spread.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/22/asia/sout...index.html

As for me, I live in Cambridge-Boston, which is an international
travel hub, to China and everywhere else, and I live next door to MIT,
which has students from all countries, including China. There are
probably 20-30 people walking about Boston right now with undetected
coronavirus. My apartment building has hundreds of students from
Asia. I go to the Roche Brothers grocery store in Kendall Square
every day and mingle with the people there, and purchase food prepared
locally.

I've been reading and watching a lot of reports, and my personal
opinion is that a pandemic is coming. In the article that I posted
yesterday (Planning for Coronavirus), I didn't want to say so
explicitly, since doing so would be alarmist, but I tried to suggest
it by saying that the hoped-for "V-shaped recovery" wasn't going to
happen.

So it's quite possible that the world will look very different a
couple of months from now.

As for myself, I'm an "elderly" person, so if I get coronavirus, then
I'll probably die, hopefully quickly. That would actually be a
convenient way to die and, as the old saying goes, we all have to die
of something.

Good luck to everyone. Wash your hands frequently, sneeze into your
sleeve, and don't touch your face.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 22-Feb-2020 World View: The End of the World

As I just wrote in another thread, I personally believe that we're
headed for a pandemic. However, Coronavirus is not going to bring
about the end of the world. Even in the worst case scenario, where
everyone in the world becomes infected, the death rate is still around
2%, which means that 98% will recover. Actually that 2% is only of
serious cases. Even if we assume that everyone in the world becomes
infected, many people will have mild cases. So that 2% figure is more
like 1%. This will be a major global crisis, and it may trigger a
recession, or it may trigger a global financial crisis, or it may
trigger WW III, but it's not the end of the world.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 22-Feb-2020 World View: HTS

aeden Wrote:> I tend to agree with a side of blow back.

> The report notes Turkey has sealed the border using its military:

> "The border is closed to refugees, secured by walls, trenches and
> guards who have shot people trying to cross without permission,"
> according to the WSJ.

> However, the WSJ fails to mention that the US-designated terrorist
> organization which rules Idlib on the ground, al-Qaeda faction
> Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has for years terrorized the local
> population and has prevented them from leaving.

> No body said end of the world. No one thinks two percent was ever
> a real rational number either. The mutation rate is the real
> question to its initial lethal rate.

> [url]https://pastebin.com/irj4Fyd5

[/url]


The problem is that al-Assad is using about 20-30,000 HTS fighters as
a reason to declare that all 4 million people in Idlib -- more than
half of whom are children, and more than half of the rest are women --
are all terrorists, to be exterminated like cockroaches. So al-Assad
plans to exterminate four million people. In America, that would be
like Trump deciding to bomb and exterminate all blacks because of
Black Lives Matter. That's also the same reasoning that Hitler used
to exterminate the Jews. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même
chose.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Spanish Flu

utahbob Wrote:> Time to put your tin foil hats on:

> https://news.webindia123.com/news/Articl...09051.html

> Since the Corona virus is spreading into the the Middle East and
> Africa, would this stop the wars in Yemen, Libya, Iraq/Syria in
> their tracks as the Spanish Flu in 1918 with WWI?

> I am wondering if the Spanish Flu model of multiple waves
> spreading around the globe would apply this time to Corona?

> Did past iterations of Ebola and Marl-burg in Africa slow down the
> local wars?

Well, there's been big ethnic war going on in eastern DRC for years,
and the arrival of a new Ebola outbreak hasn't slowed it down, but in
fact has made Ebola an additional weapon of war.

The things that make this possible are: (1) The difficulty in
transmitting Ebola, requiring close physical contact, and (2)
aggressive use of newly developed vaccines.

Neither of those things apply with Covid-19. It can be transmitted
through the air, and there are no vaccines.

With regard to the Spanish Flu ending WW I, note that Russia and
the Mideast were in a generational Recovery era, with no desire for
another war, and Europe and America were in a generational Unraveling
era, also with no desire for war.

Today, much of the world is in a generational Crisis era, and many
countries are actively planning for wars of revenge. Army generals
would have to have ways of isolating coronavirus infections, but that
would stop them from waging war. Also, coronavirus may become a
weapon of war, as some people believe has already happened for the
Chinese.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 22-Feb-2020 World View: Supply Chain

Guest Wrote:> I'm guessing the real threat is the break of the supply chain.

> Just about everything in Wal Mart is from China. Think about that
> as you walk down the isles. Consider the pharmacy section with all
> the prescription and over-the-counter drugs, personal hygiene,
> linens, all the plastic containers, auto parts, tools, soap,
> cleaning products, paper products, etc. Now consider those
> shelves getting empty. Same goes for dozens of other stores.

> What about the hardware stores? What happens to construction when
> there's no nails or screws or saw blades? What happens when your
> local mechanic can't get parts to repair your car? Trains? Ships?

> Outsourcing to China is a curse.

> Great time to be alive. Yeah. Sure it is.

Of all disasters surrounding coronavirus, the supply chain issue is
probably the best understood, and the earliest to fix. A closed
business goes bankrupt, and so everyone will be looking for ways --
robotics, working at home, hazmat suits, etc. -- to get things going
again. When I said that there would be no "V-Shaped Recovery," I
didn't mean that there would be no recovery at all. I would expect
most companies to be at least partially back in business by summer.