Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

** 23-Feb-2020 World View: Used-up people

JCP Wrote:> I have thought about this too. Most of the dead seemed to be over
> 60. That's a great way to rid Chinese society of used up
> people. This is almost a polite way to commit mass murder.

Not just in China. This is a good way to get rid of used-up people
in every society.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 23-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus vs Spanish Flu

Navigator Wrote:> The Spanish flu ran its course in about 2 years. Because of modern
> methods of travel, the spread will be much faster, but modern
> hygiene, at least in the most modern countries, could slow it
> somewhat.

There are lots of reasons why coronavirus today could be worse than
Spanish Flu a century ago, but there is one thing we have today that
they didn't have back then that's worth noting: Today we have the
ability to develop a vaccine, and there may be vaccines in production
in 6-18 months.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 23-Feb-2020 World View: Getting coronavirus early

Navigator Wrote:> It may actually be a blessing to get infected by it early on,
> before the masses are infected, so that you can get top notch
> treatment. When the masses get it, the sick will be put on cots in
> gymnasiums and tent cities, and either your body will fight it and
> you get better (along with gained immunity) or you die.

According to the reports that I've seen, getting coronavirus doesn't
give you immunity, and you can be reinfected. In fact, as I briefly
mentioned in my "Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)" a couple
of days ago, "However, those who develop severe cases and survive
often have damaged heart muscles, and many have developed heart
attacks."

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus Updates

Guest Wrote:> I'm in Korea. Here is an update, for those who may be interested.

> One of the infected was taken away today. He lived on my
> street. No one saw the medical team arrive and depart. He was
> taken away and the government announced it and told us all the
> places he had been, including the pharmacy that I visited three
> times last weekend looking for surgical masks. It's now like this
> person doesn't exist. He has become a former person. I don't know
> his name. That part of the story is not reported. maybe i knew
> him? I am surrounded by the infected. Question. Am I am one them?

> I wear a surgical mask in the office now. It's no longer
> optional. My manager demanded I wear it. I used to take it of when
> I arrived. This is no longer allowed. New policy.

> Will I be taken away? Unless you are facing this, in a place like
> this, you can't understand what it is like. This attacker is
> invisible. How do you fight air?

> I hope the Korean government knows what it is doing.

> if this is a bio-weapon, it's a very clever one. Only the Chinese
> have lost control of it. And now we all suffer. And some die. Will
> the Chinese government ever be held to account for all this? I
> doubt it.

Thanks for the update from Korea. Right now Korea tops the list of
the countries of greatest international concern, the other two being
Iran an Italy.

Iran doesn't (yet) have as many cases as South Korea, but apparently
Iran's medical facilities are already overwhelmed by the 50-100 cases
it already has. It looks like Iran is next in line for a huge surge,
just like South Korea has been experiencing.

Iran is also being isolated, with Turkey, Armenia, Saudi Arabia,
Pakistan and Afghanistan all closing their borders to Iran. There's
also talk of Italy having to close its borders to the rest of Europe's
Schengen Zone.

Anyway, you've provided an update on how you're trying to survive. I
hope you succeed.

So now I'll give my own update.

All my life, whenever I've had the flu, I would take a big dose
of Nyquil and go to bed with a heating pad, and usually the
flu would be gone by morning. I was sometimes left with an ordinary
cold, but I could avoid even that with massive doses of Vitamin C.

So now Wuhan Coronavirus is coming over the hill towards me. I live
in Kendall Square, Cambridge, next door to MIT, where there are
thousands of Asian students milling around, many living in my
apartment building.

So I'm assuming I'm going to get it, and since I'm an "elderly"
person, I assume I'm going to die, which means that I have about a
month left to live, under these assumptions. What should I do?

Earlier today I bought a new supply of Nyquil. When the virus
strikes, I'll augment my usual anti-flu strategy, and take one dose of
Nyquil after another and just stay in bed sleeping.

There are two possibilities:

* I'll recover and wake up, and I'll have survived the Coronavirus.

* Or, I'll die in my sleep, which is a very convenient way to die.

So anyway, that's my plan. I don't know if it will actually happen
that way since, as the old saying goes, "Life is what happens while
you're making plans." But if I update my plan, I'll post an update.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Feb-2020 World View: Heating system

John Wrote:> So now Wuhan Coronavirus is coming over the hill towards me. I
> live in Kendall Square, Cambridge, next door to MIT, where there
> are thousands of Asian students milling around, many living in my
> apartment building.

> So I'm assuming I'm going to get it, and since I'm an "elderly"
> person, I assume I'm going to die, which means that I have about a
> month left to live, under these assumptions. What should I
> do?

Something else occurred to me.

My apartment building has hundreds of apartments, mostly filled with
Asian students.

The building was built in 1950 and it's a very solid building. But
the apartments are all centrally heated by a common forced air heating
system. That means that all hundreds of apartments are breathing the
same air.

[Warren Dew]

The common cold is also a coronavirus, so vitamin C should still be effective in reducing symptoms and duration. It seems that respiratory symptoms are what is causing death, so reducing the symptoms could be quite useful.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Feb-2020 World View: Vitamin C and Coronavirus

(02-24-2020, 08:40 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The common cold is also a coronavirus, so vitamin C should still
> be effective in reducing symptoms and duration. It seems that
> respiratory symptoms are what is causing death, so reducing the
> symptoms could be quite useful.

Lol! If you're right, this would be quite a dramatic discovery. A
lot of companies are trying to develop therapeutic drugs for
coronavirus, and the drug Ramdesevir by Gilead is being called the
most promising so far.

So imagine how many red faces there will be if it turns out that the
best coronavirus therapy is Vitamin C?

• The best Coronavirus therapy?

[John J. Xenakis]

** 24-Feb-2020 World View: CDC raises S. Korea warning to Level 3

Guest Wrote:> Mine, too.

> Another update from Korea. The government announced today that
> anyone with a fever or respiratory problems should stay home. This
> means the medical system has already been overwhelmed. Also,
> people were told several days ago not to go to the hospital or
> doctor's office if they believe they have the virus. They were to
> telephone a number and wait to be picked up. Now they are told to
> just stay home. Now we are going to die at home? The system has
> already been overwhelmed.

> On the plus side,with most of China's factories shut down the air
> quality hasn't been this good since the 1990s. Too bad most are
> too afraid to go outside to enjoy it.

> Good luck, everyone.

Within the last few hours, the CDC has raised the CDC warning level
for South Korea to Level 3, the highest level, meaning that no one
should travel to S. Korea, unless absolutely essential.

As of Monday, the coronavirus has killed at least 2,600 people and
infected more than 80,000 people in 35 countries worldwide.

Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases:

Quote: China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Afghanistan,
Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Cambodia, Canada, Egypt, Finland,
France, Germany, India, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kuwait,
Lebanon, Malaysia, Nepal, Philippines, Russia, Sri Lanka,
Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, The Republic of Korea, United
Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Vietnam

• Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases

Note that there are almost no cases in Africa or South America.
That's because nobody is being tested.

---- Sources:

-- COVID-19: CDC recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential
travel to South Korea
http://outbreaknewstoday.com/covid-19-cd...rea-99406/
(OutbreakNewsToday, 24-Feb-2020)

-- Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Globa
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...cases.html
(CDC, 24-Feb-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus timeline

Navigator Wrote:

• James Lyon Weller: This child looks like a sweet kid, and his
  mother must be proud, but there's no reason to believe that he has any
  clue what he's talking about

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/02/16/...ypothesis/

> Why Is the Mortality Rate So Low Outside of China?

> The current mortality rate outside of China is very low, I
> estimate around 0.005%, compared to the 2.3% rate in China. Most
> if not all of the deaths outside of China have involved Chinese
> citizens who have traveled abroad.

> Current hypotheses include that a covert SARS vaccination program
> was included in the national mandatory vaccination program started
> on Dec 1, 2019 that happened to involve a secondary true outbreak
> of Coronavirus with secondary exposure. Under such conditions, the
> animal models clearly show that vaccination against SARS spike
> proteins lead to high rates of morbidity and mortality, especially
> in older mice. No children seem to be dying in China, consistent
> with them being excluded from a large-scale initial Phase II or
> Phase III trial. Mortality appears highest in Hubei and Wuhan as
> well. We know a Phase I trial against SARS was conducted with 120
> people by Sinovac around 2007.

There's actually a much simpler explanation for why so many more
people are dying inside China than outside.

A rough timeline in China is that we know that the CCP became aware of
the coronavirus in October, and we know that the CCP began building
hospitals in Wuhan in November, and we know that in December the virus
was only beginning to spread in Wuhan and that people who talked about
it were brutally suppressed by the CCP (as illustrated by the death of
Dr. Li), and we know that it was only around January 20 that the CCP
finally considered the outbreak serious enough to admit it publicly,
and begin draconian measures.

Outside of China, it was in late January that the first cases were
found in the West. So the West has been 3-4 months behind the Chinese
in outbreaks of the virus.

So today, the West is where China was in late November, only
at the very beginning of the crisis.

That explains why the death rate outside of China is lower. Another
reason is the obvious one that the West has found ways to care
for patients that weren't available to the Chinese 2-3 months ago.

That makes a lot more sense than the wild paranoia of a young
kid.

[Warren Dew]

(02-25-2020, 09:34 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ** 25-Feb-2020 World View: Vitamin C and Coronavirus

(02-24-2020, 08:40 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   The common cold is also a coronavirus, so vitamin C should still
>   be effective in reducing symptoms and duration. It seems that
>   respiratory symptoms are what is causing death, so reducing the
>   symptoms could be quite useful.

Lol!  If you're right, this would be quite a dramatic discovery.  A
lot of companies are trying to develop therapeutic drugs for
coronavirus, and the drug Ramdesevir by Gilead is being called the
most promising so far.

Vitamin C is off patent, so it won't be (re)discovered.  Heck, the medical establishment hates Pauling so much that whenever vitamin C is shown to be good for something, they say it's "antioxidants" rather than just vitamin C.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 25-Feb-2020 World View: San Francisco declares coronavirus emergency

Within the last few hours, San Francisco mayor London Breed declared a
local coronavirus emergency. According to Breed's statement:

Quote:> "Although there are still zero confirmed cases in San
> Francisco residents, the global picture is changing rapidly, and
> we need to step-up preparedness. We see the virus spreading in
> new parts of the world every day, and we are taking the necessary
> steps to protect San Franciscans from harm."

San Francisco has several reasons to be concerned. One is that San
Francisco has a world famous Chinatown:

Quote:> "A western street with eastern manners,
> Tall pagodas and golden banners
> Throw their shadows through the lantern glow.

> You can shop for precious jade
> or teakwood tables or silk brocade
> Or see a bold and brassy night club show,
> On the most exciting thoroughfare I know.

> We call it
> Grant Avenue, San Francisco,
> California, U.S.A.
> Looks down from Chinatown
> Over a foggy bay.

> You travel there in a trolley,
> In a trolley up you climb,
> Dong! Dong! You're in Hong Kong,
> Having yourself a time.

> You can eat, if you are in the mood,
> Shark-fin soup, bean cake fish.
> The girl who serves you all your food
> Is another tasty dish!

> You know you
> Can't have a new way of living
> Till you're living all the way
> On Grant Avenue. --Where is that?--
> San Francisco, That's where's that!
> California U.S.A."
> --- Flower Drum Song, Rodgers & Hammerstein, 1959

The other major issue is that the city has been in the news a great
deal recently because the streets are filled with homeless people,
along with associated stuff like needles, filth and disease,
the perfect breeding ground for coronavirus.


---- Source:

-- San Francisco / SF Mayor London Breed Declares Local Emergency Amid
Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/sa...k/2241796/
(NBCBayArea, 25-Feb-2020)

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Feb-20 World View -- India's 1947 Partition War being refought as Delhi riots spread

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Communal Hindu vs Muslim violence kills 27 in India's capital Delhi
  
• Delhi riots evoke memories of India's bloody 1947 Partition War
  
• The generational 'Democide Pattern'
  

****
**** Communal Hindu vs Muslim violence kills 27 in India's capital Delhi
****


Aftermath of Hindu-Muslim ethnic clashes in Delhi on Wednesday (AFP)

With all that's going on in the world today -- an increasingly
explosive situation in Idlib, Syria, with al-Assad's army threatening
full-scale genocide and Turkey threatening war with Syria, and a
growing coronavirus crisis in multiple countries -- it's easy to
ignore a growing ethnic conflict in India.

At least 27 people were killed and hundreds injured in three days
ethnic riots between Hindus and Muslims in Delhi, India's capital
city. In most cases, the violence was by Hindu nationalist mobs
targeting Muslims, beating unarmed Muslim men, and destroying or
burning Muslim homes and businesses. Muslims claim that the police
did nothing to stop the violence, and Hindus claim that some Hindus
were attacked as well. It's described as the worst communal violence
in Delhi in decades.

The protests were triggered by a new law, the Citizenship Amendment
Act (CAA) that became law in December. According to the Indian
government, the purpose of the law is to protect persecuted ethnic
minorities in neighboring countries (Pakistan, Afghanistan,
Bangladesh), by allowing members of the ethnic minorities to apply for
citizenship in India. ( "17-Dec-19 World View -- India's Citizenship Bill riots evoke memories of the 1947 Partition War"
)

So that sounds perfectly reasonable, until you begin to understand its
consequences. It applies to persecuted minorities -- Hindu,
Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh or Buddhist -- but not to Muslims, since
Muslims are not minorities in the neighbor countries. Opponents of
the law point out that ethnic minorities that happen to be Muslim are
also excluded, referring specifically to the Rohingyas in Bangladesh,
as well as Ahmadis and Sufis in Pakistan.

Starting in December, there were large anti-CAA protests, and protesters
included by Muslims and Hindus, complaining that the law undermines
India's secular traditions.

However, as the weeks have passed, Muslims in the protests have been
increasingly targeted by Hindutva (Hindu nationalists) with
inflammatory speeches and expletives and mobs mouthing racist
anti-Muslim slogans. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who heads the
Hindu nationalist BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), are being accused by
activists of inciting the violence against Muslim.

Hindu nationalism is controversial in India because opponents
associate it with "Hindutva violence," where the Hindutva movement
began in 1923, led by Veer Savarkar (Vinayak Damodar Savarkar), mostly
as a movement against British colonization. (See "'Hindutva' terrorist violence against Muslims shocks Indians"
from 2008.) Modi became associated
with Hindutva violence in 2002, as Governor of the Gujarat province,
when he allegedly looked the other way when a train with Hindutva
activists attacked a group of Muslims, triggering sectarian violence
that led to hundreds of deaths and displacing more than 150,000
people, mostly Muslim. ( "15-Sep-13 World View -- Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister"
)

Many in the media are also comparing the current anti-Muslim
riots to a major 1984 anti-Sikh riots in Delhin, in which
more than 3,000 Sikhs were killed.

****
**** Delhi riots evoke memories of India's bloody 1947 Partition War
****

It's been 73 years since India's last generational crisis war,
the 1947 Partition War that followed when the Indian subcontinent
was partitioned into two countries, India and Pakistan. The idea
was that Hindus and Sikhs would occupy India, and Muslims would
occupy Pakistan. But unfortunately the partition wasn't "clean,"
in the sense that there were both Hindus and Muslims on both sides
of the partition line. The result was one of the most massive
and bloodiest battle of the 20th century, the 1947 Partition War.

The preceding generational crisis war, when India was a British colony
and there was no Pakistan, was the 1857 anti-British rebellion, also
also called India's First War of Independence from the British
colonial power. What started out as protests related to the Hindu
veneration of cows grew into an extremely bloody generational crisis
war, resulting in the deaths of over 100,000 Indian civilians. ( "7-Aug-16 World View -- India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks')"
)

So the 1857 rebellion and the 1947 Partition War were the last two
generational crisis wars, and India is overdue for a new one.
The current communal violence in Delhi is extremely disturbing, and
in this generational Crisis era, it is possible that the Delhi
violence will escalate into war.

Dear Reader, if you get the feeling that the world is coming apart at
the seams, you're right. That's what happens during a generational
Crisis era. Winston Churchill referred to a similar period prior to
WW II as "The Gathering Storm." We're seeing a "gathering storm"
today, and it's possible that the growing Delhi violence in India will
be the trigger for a much larger war.

****
**** The generational 'Democide Pattern'
****

As I've developed generational theory and Generational Dynamics, I've
seen a particular pattern occur over and over in dozens of countries.
I've decided to adopt the name "Democide Pattern" for this pattern,
even though the original author of the term "democide," R. J. Rummel,
used it to mean mass slaughter of a segment of a country's population
by the government.

I'm using the same word in an expanded sense, to include things like
torture, rape, jailings, executions, and discrimination targeting a
segment of the population. This pattern occurs in countries in the
decades following a generational crisis war which is also a civil war.

Regular readers know that I've written several times about the
differences that depend on whether the preceding crisis war was an
external war with another country versus an internal crisis civil war
between tribes and ethnic groups. In the former case, when the war
ends, the two armies each withdraw from the other country, and further
contact between the populations is done diplomatically. But in the
latter case, the two populations continue to live with each other when
the war ends -- in the same country, the same villages and even on the
same streets. This means that the hatred and the desire for revenge
continue at a very personal level.

In the past I've described in general terms what happens, but now
I'm using the term "Democide Pattern" to describe the particular
behaviors that occur. After a generational crisis ethnic or
tribal civil war ends, the winning side gets control of the
government. There's usually some sort of peace agreement at
the end of the war, where the winning tribe promises not to
discriminate against the losing tribe, but that agreement always
falls apart when the losing tribe begins to gain political power.

I'll write more about this at a later date, but here is a summary
of the behaviors that we see in country after country:

• Hate speech and inflammatory speeches
  
• Job discrimination
  
• Extrajudial jailinsgs
  
• Torture, rape
  
• Collective punishment for individual crimes
  
• Goon squads attacking the losing tribe
  
• Organized mobs attacking the losing tribe
  
• Pogroms attacking the losing tribe -- police stand by an
  watch as members of the winning tribe attack the losing tribe.

India has adopted most of these behaviors targeting Muslims.

A standard technique is for the government to continually discriminate
and incite violence against the losing tribe, in order to provoke some
kind of violent or terrorist act in response. This provides the
excuse for the government to collective punishment against everyone in
the losing tribe.

The extreme example is Bashar al-Assad, whom I've described is the
worst genocidal monster and war criminal so far this century. But
I've also described the same phenomenon, with varying levels of
violence, with Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi,
Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in
Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad
in Syria, Hun Sen in Cambodia and Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka.

Sources:

• More than a dozen killed, hundreds injured as New Delhi riots overshadow Trump visit (Reuters, 25-Feb-2020)
  
• Delhi riots: City tense after Hindu-Muslim clashes leave 23 dead (BBC, 26-Feb-2020)
  
• Why Delhi violence has echoes of the Gujarat riots (BBC, 26-Feb-2020)
  
• Death Toll Rises to 24 From Delhi Riots During Trump Trip (AP, 26-Feb-2020)
  
• Delhi violence: A story of politics, police and riot-ready mob (India Today, 26-Feb-2020)
  
• 2020 Delhi Riots Nothing Like 1984 (New Delhi TV, 26-Feb-2020)
  
• PDF: Report of joint inquiry into the causes and impact of the 1984 riots (Unipune, pdf, Dec-1984)
  
• At Epicentre Of Delhi Riots, How A Mohalla Of Hindus And Muslims Kept Peace (New Delhi TV, 26-Feb-2020)
  
• Delhi riots neither designed by Modi govt, nor Islamic conspiracy. It’s far more dangerous (The Print, India, 26-Feb-2020)
  
• Delhi Riots: BJP Brass Focuses on Congress Reaction, Local Leaders Continue to Polarise (The Wire, India, 26-Feb-2020)

Related Articles:

• India's Citizenship Bill riots evoke memories of the 1947 Partition War (17-Dec-2019)
  
  
• 'Hindutva' terrorist violence against Muslims shocks Indians (06-Nov-2008)
  
  
• Hindu nationalist nominated as India's prime minister (15-Sep-2013)
  
  
• India's Narendra Modi finally hits out at Cow Protectors ('Gau Rakshaks') (07-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Delhi, Citizenship Amendment Act, CAA,
Hindu, Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh, Buddhist, Muslim,
Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Ahmadis, Sufis,
Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP,
Hindutva, Hindu nationalists, Gujarat, Sikhs,
Partition War, War of Independence,
Democide pattern, R. J. Rummel

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

** 26-Feb-2020 World View: Chain reaction

Higgenbotham Wrote:> The reason this is working is because the book is thin, people are
> nervous, and big traders are trapped because there is no liquidity
> in the book. One big trader tonight drove the market down 8 points
> to get out of approximately 1000 lots. I covered a short right at
> the low of that move.

Words like "trapped" raise a red flag for me.

A couple of days ago, I heard an analyst on TV say something about
airline stocks falling because they were owned by hedge funds that had
to sell them off to cover shorts.

I favor the "chain reaction" theory of when a stock market panic
occurs. It happens when many traders simultaneously are forced to
sell to cover shorts or loans. When one trader is forced to sell, the
stock prices go down, resulting in a margin call for other traders,
creating a chain reaction and vicious cycle.

The Fed is prepared to flood the banks with liquidity when something
like that is happening, but if the chain reaction is international,
the the Fed won't be able to stop it.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Feb-2020 World View: India's history

Goose Wrote:> Been reading GDWVN for a while now and have read both of your
> latest books. But I have an exception to India. Ethnic memory is
> very long. For example when Jews do the Passover service one of
> the passages includes the wording "when I was a slave", Muslims
> teach that the "Crusades" are almost yesterday and in India I
> would expect that the non Muslem Indians would remember the Muslem
> conquest of India and subsiquent slaughters, slavery along with
> all of the other humiliations. So what is happening now does not
> suprise me as a matter of fact I am suprised that a sort of peace
> lasted this long - 70 plus years. Multiculturalism can work for a
> while but does not work in the long run and this is but another
> example

I agree with what you say, and in fact in 2016 I was going to write
a book on India and I have a folder on my computer containing hundreds
of articles and books on the history of India, but I didn't have a
chance to finish the book.

So I understand what you're saying, but I don't understand where you
believe you're disagreeing with me. Perhaps you could explain
further.

Goose Wrote:> On another subject, the Chicom flu. Maybe the Iranians can get
> lucky and the old goat leaders have to retire or possibly
> involuntairly. Hope that the successors have fewer desires to
> restablish the Persian Empire.

Ah yes, "Chicom flu" is an interesting name for it.

Iran is in a great deal of trouble because the clerics do nothing but
suck up money and make demands that the other parts of the government
are afraid to ignore. The country is wasting money on foreign
adventures, Iran's interference in Iraq is strongly opposed by many
Iraqis, they shot down a passenger plan, they were caught by surprise
by the coronavirus, they're still kowtowing to the Chinese and
refusing to end flights from China, their ministers are infected, and
they're still in denial about the seriousness of the epidemic.

The leadership in both China and Iran will be blamed on ineffective
response to the epidemic and will be threatened with "regime change,"
and the leadership in both China and Iran will find a way to blame the
United States.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Coronavirus and Smoking

The 1918 Spanish flu infected 1/3 of world's population, killed 50
million people.

The 2009 swine flu killed 575,000 people.

Coronavirus - 78,000 infections so far, 2,800 dead so far. 80% of
infections are mild.

Here is something completely different that I've never heard before,
from an interview on al-Jazeera with Dr. Vin Gupta, University of
Washington Medical Center. This provides a partial explanation
of some other mysteries -- why the epidemic is so much worse
in China than elsewhere:

Respiratory pathogens -- SARS, Coronavirus, Avian flu -- are
geographically affected. They take root where people smoke a lot.
And the Chinese have the highest smoking prevalence rate in the world,
and it's not even close amongst men. Women in China get exposure to
second hand smoke at levels you wouldn't believe. So there's poor
lung health in China. Once it takes root in China, since it's a
respiratory illness, it can spread to other countries.

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Turkey in crisis after Syrian airstrike kills 33 Turkish soldiers

• Little boy in Idlib, targeted by al-Assad as a terrorist

Turkey's government, led by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, held an
emergency meeting of ministers and senior security officials on
Thursday evening to decide how to respond after an airstrike by the
Bashar al-Assad regime in Idlib, Syria, killed dozens of Turkish
soldiers, with reports giving the number between 22 and 33.

Saturday is the deadline day that Erdogan has specified for weeks for
Syrian forces to retreat to a previously agreed ceasefire line, behind
Turkey's military outposts in Idlib, also part of the same agreement.

But now, two days before the deadline, Syria's airstrikes are a major
escalation in the war, and a "casus belli" that Turkey will not
be able to ignore, even if it wanted to. Since Iran and Russia are
backing Syria, this could logically lead to war between Turkey and
Russia, for the first time since World War I. However, in recent
speeches and actions by Erdogan, it seems clear that Turkey would not
hesitate to fight Syrian forces to drive them back, all the way to
Damascus if necessary, but that Turkey does not want a war with
Russia.

Russia, on the other hand, is aggressively backing Syrian forces in
Idlib, apparently with the expectation that Turkey will retreat and
give al-Assad control of all of Idlib, with resulting slaughter and
ethnic cleansing of millions of al-Assad's Sunni Arab political
enemies, most of whom are children, and most of the rest of whom are
women. Al-Assad calls them all "terrorists," and considers them to be
cockroaches to be exterminated. Russia and Syria have both been
specifically targeting schools, hospitals and residential homes in
order to force the ethnic cleansing as quickly and thoroughly as
possible.

So Turkey does not want war with Russia, and Russia does not want war
with Turkey, but powerful generational forces are taking control,
and pushing them to war.

If we compare these leaders, you may not like Erdogan, but he's the
most honest of the politicians since he takes credit or blame for what
he does. Bashar al-Assad is a vicious psychopathic monster, but he's
also honest, in that he makes it clear that he has no hesitation to
slaughter millions of innocent Sunni Arab women and children in Idlib,
and become a war criminal. To him they are, after all, just
cockroaches.

As usual, Vladimir Putin never opens his mouth except that total
bullshit pours out onto the floor. He says he wants peace in Idlib,
but what he says is always garbage. He couldn't care less about
peace. So what does he want?

According to analyst Pavel Felgenhauer:

Quote: "It seems the Kremlin has seriously underestimated
Erdogan’s resolve to push back against pro-al-Assad forces while
doing his best to avoid a direct clash with Russia (apparently
mistaken by Moscow as a sign of Erdogan’s weakness).

This is also my own conclusion, although I would add to this
conclusion that it doesn't matter what Putin wants, since there are
powerful generational forces driving the situation.

My conclusion also is that Putin's fantasy for victory in Idlib is
that Turkey is finally forced to open the border and allow millions of
Syrian refugees to cross into Turkey, and then continue traveling on
into Europe. Putin would consider millions of Syrian refugees, many
with coronavirus infections, pouring into Europe to be a major victory
over Europe.

So it seems that all the relevant parties have made irrevesible
choices, and we should see the results over the weekend.

---- Sources:

-- 22 Turkish soldiers killed in Syrian gov't air raid in Idlib
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/t...19672.html
(Al-Jazeera, 27-Feb-2020)

-- Syria war: 22 Turkish troops killed in airstrike in Idlib
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51667717
(BBC, 27-Feb-2020)

-- At least 34 Turkish soldiers killed during airstrikes in Idlib
https://www.arabnews.com/node/1634221/middle-east
(Arab News, 27-Feb-2020)

-- Turkey strikes Russian, Assad regime bastion Latakia, other targets
in Syria with missiles
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turk...syria/news
(Daily Sabah, Ankara, 28-Feb-2020)

-- Turkey will no longer stop Syrian migrant flow to Europe, official
says
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turk...-says/news
(Daily Sabah, Ankara, 28-Feb-2020)

-- Idlib Syria / Russia and Turkey Drift Toward War
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-and...oward-war/
(Jamestown, 27-Feb-2020)

---- Related Articles:

** 11-Feb-20 World View -- Syria war escalates into new phase with military clashes between al-Assad and Turkey
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200211


** 9-Feb-20 World View -- Turkey sends tanks across border into Syria to confront al-Assad regime in Idlib
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e200209


** 22-Jan-14 World View -- Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140122


** 25-Nov-15 World View -- Turkey shoots down Russian warplane, evoking memories of many Crimean wars
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e151125

[John J. Xenakis]

** 27-Feb-2020 World View: Black Monday

Higgenbotham Wrote:> Your post from last night outlines what appears to have happened
> today. I think there was a lot of forced selling today.

If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then Monday will be a
bloodbath ("Black Monday").

[pbrower2a]

The coronavirus is at most a pretext for this weeks' decline in the stock market. It was only a matter of time:



It's our old pal, Mr. Inverted Yield Curve! In good times for business prospects, short-term yields are decidedly lower than long-term yields. Business entities that most need to borrow (like firms on life support and highly-speculative activities) find themselves in deep trouble. 

I'm guessing that savings are low in contrast to overall debt... maybe real wages are low. Workers who get paid adequately save. Speculators and companies on life support borrow profusely until they can no longer do so. Companies that cannot justify their leverage... fail. People working for such entities lose their jobs, and consumer spending plummets.  Bad debts become commonplace.

[Warren Dew]

(02-27-2020, 10:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: If we follow the same pattern as in 1929, then Monday will be a
bloodbath ("Black Monday").

I don't see how covering shorts can cause a crash, even selling to cover shorts.  Covering a short is a buy action, so you're buying as much as you're selling.

[Warren Dew]

(02-27-2020, 08:24 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: My conclusion also is that Putin's fantasy for victory in Idlib is
that Turkey is finally forced to open the border and allow millions of
Syrian refugees to cross into Turkey, and then continue traveling on
into Europe.  Putin would consider millions of Syrian refugees, many
with coronavirus infections, pouring into Europe to be a major victory
over Europe.

So it seems that all the relevant parties have made irrevesible
choices, and we should see the results over the weekend.

I think Erdogan has backed Turkey into a terrible position.  The S-400 purchase and the Turkish actions regarding Libya have upset the US.  I don't think it's clear that the S-400s will work against Russian aircraft, and because of that purchase, they're not going to get US missiles.

I'd love to see Erdogan fight, but I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that he won't back down.