Joe Biden: polls of approval and favorability

[David Horn]

(03-29-2021, 09:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-29-2021, 04:51 PM)David Horn Wrote: It seems that Biden learned the lesson of 'too little, too late' and is working on a consistent pattern of big wins with Democrats alone.  The infrastructure bill will prove that true or not, because it has to pass.  If the GOPpers have no intention of building things for their constituents, as I suspect, then Biden will bless abandoning the filibuster (or forcing it to the floor as a speak-a-thon), and pass it with Dems alone.  If it plays that way, the Republicans are dead for the next cycle.

Let's see who and how many play chicken with their political futures this time. Bets? Anyone?

I'm waiting for a big round of court cases.  Mostly, Fox is being sued by Dominion for reporting on the Big Lie.  That case will involve recordings of Fox repeating the Big Lie, and of their recanting that the Big Lie was a big lie.  Secondly, in Georgia Trump himself is in line for participating in voter fraud.  If those court efforts go as the 50 to 1 cases before them, it gets really hard to perpetuate the alternate version of the truth.

But judging from the fanatics wading through here, the ability of people to ignore the truth is bottomless.

It feels like we're at a pivot point, with the future direction of the nation at stake.  If the theory holds, then this should be resolved, in due course, in favor of the greater good for the greater number, and a loss of trivial "freedoms" for the radical libertarian right.  But, and there always is a "but", we have a lot of pain to endure on the journey.  

Assume that the SCOTUS becomes a monstrous PITA in the path of progress, and may force a step back for every step forward for a while at least.  Is there stomach for court packing?  Will Steven Breyer step down before he falls down? Is Thomas fully healthy?  Or Alito? The rest are under 70,and unlikely to be replaced soon.  So it will fall to political courage -- a rare commodity in Washington DC.

[pbrower2a]

Bart Kavanaugh is or was a heavy drinker, and that alone could dramatically shorten his life. He has abused his liver badly for a long time, and when one's liver fails, nothing else matters. I have known of super-heavy drinkers dying in their thirties. Line many alcoholics he may have a chronological age in midlife yet have a very elderly liver. I bragged about a "Mormon liver" and "Mormon lungs" to a physician for reasons that have nothing to do with religious affiliation. (I am not a Mormon; I simply drink little and have never smoked, which are good choices for anyone irrespective of religion). If one wants to live to and advanced age, then following the Mormon code of healthy behavior is a viable solution.

To paraphrase Thomas Hobbes, an alcoholic's life is often "nasty, short, and brutish". Alcoholism may be immature behavior, but it can certainly age a body fast.

Clarence Thomas? He is now old, black, male, and overweight; he would be a tough candidate to underwrite for any form of life insurance that pays out much more than the premium at the time of death. So far he has no really-bad habits other than obesity, and I'm not going to either pry or speculate.

...The actions by some GOP-led state legislatures to cull the vote to favor Republicans, with deeds likely to make voting more discriminatory against non-white and non-Anglo voters or that allow State legislatures or officials to set aside a vote that they dislike seem shady to me in view of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act. Those laws are the legislation that defines who can vote. Denying voting rights to people who have exercised them unless that person is lawfully removed from the electorate (death, moving away, or certain felony convictions) is suspect. It is not up to elected officials or their appointed figures to determine who can vote and can not vote so that one gets some desired result.

I do not ordinarily predict the behavior of litigators or judges, but such legislation has the equivalent of the delicate aroma of skunk spray.

[pbrower2a]

Quote:Arizona LOVES their president!
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ohpredictive/status/1376958319571701764?s=21[/tweet]

Back to twenty states for approval and one (Pennsylvania) for favorability.

(Tweets from Twitter do not show well here, so here is an image over time. Note the inversion of the records of Biden and Trump. This happens when one does the opposite of what a predecessor did . That was extremely unwise for Donald Trump -- even if he hated the guts of Barack Obama, there was much that Obama did right. With Biden, doing the opposite of a President whom History will show as one of the worst, if not the worst, will mostly be sage advice.),  

It's hard to believe, but Arizona may be the 2020 equivalent of what West Virginia was in 2000 -- a surprising pick-up for a state that one Party won almost all the time. This polling result suggests that Arizona is starting to resemble Colorado or New Mexico in politics. The demographics of Arizona would seem to be somewhere between New Mexico (a very poor state) and Colorado.

55% approval for a Democrat is freakish... but again, Arizona seems now to be inverting a poll in which Trump was down about 40-55 in approval at one point (I guess it was in 2018).

It is rare that a political figure can get away with doing the opposite of his predecessor as a way to get rw-elected. Trump did that with Barack Obama, which proved unwise in the extreme. Doing the opposite of Obama was one way to get hideous results. A President who gets 365 electoral votes in a country scared of a reprise of the Great Depression and then 332 after things had calmed down had to be doing something right. So Trump hated Barack Obama's guts? Tough luck!  

If yoou are going to repudiate someone, then repudiate what is wrong. So you despise your neighbor who regularly sees the dentist and gets his car's oil changed regularly and avoids trouble by paying his bills on time. . Is contempt for your neighbor a good reason for neglecting your teeth and your car and not paying bills on time?

If I were replacing a manager who had just been fired, then among the first questions I would ask is what my predecessor did right. I'm not shaking that! So maybe he  brought a suitable assortment of foods to the company picnic and was fussy about neatness in the office as such keeps morale up. But if he is dipping into the take from the soft-drink machine for his patronage of an escort service... that ends, ideally yesterday. If he tells off-color, offensive jokes... likewise. No, you do not get to make jokes about handicapped people. No, the girly calendars go down once and for all.  

....It's Wednesday morning, and the day on which the most polls come in. I'm not sure that I fully believe this one, but still, Arizona is close to the national average in the vote, and at times in 2020 it looked as if it would go to Joe Biden by a significantly larger margin than it did. This is the first poll of approval in Arizonaafter the Presidential election... and the sick spectacle whose date will be remembered in somewhat different infamy than December 7, 1941, but infamy nonetheless.  

*Pennsylvania is shown as favorability, and favorability has typically been less flattering to the President than      





Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[pbrower2a]

This is the pattern of one pollster that seemingly polls only Arizona. Trump never had an unambiguous advantage in approval since early 2019. He had some hideous approval and disapproval numbers in the late spring and early summer of 2020 and managed to get those nearly even at election time. That is what campaigning is about, and he barely lost Arizona. After the election his approval numbers. The crossing over reflects Joe Biden becoming President. So far the gap favors him strongly. 

The red line is disapproval for the President at the time, and the blue line is approval. 

This applies to the President even as early as January 2019, just before the first impeachment.

[Eric the Green]

Polling Data https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
Poll..................................Date...............Sample........Approve....Disapprove....Spread
RCP Average.....................3/22 - 4/1.......--................53.8.........42.2..............+11.6
Reuters/Ipsos....................3/31 - 4/1......1005 A.........54............41................+13
Rasmussen Reports............3/30 - 4/1......1500 LV.......48............50.................-2
Economist/YouGov.............3/27 - 3/30....1259 RV.......50............43................+7
Politico/Morning Consult.....3/26 - 3/29.....2043 RV......58............39................+19
Harvard-Harris...................3/24 - 3/25.....1945 RV......61............39................+22
NPR/Marist........................3/22 - 3/25.....1167 RV......52............41................+11

[Eric the Green]

(03-30-2021, 10:19 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-29-2021, 09:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-29-2021, 04:51 PM)David Horn Wrote: It seems that Biden learned the lesson of 'too little, too late' and is working on a consistent pattern of big wins with Democrats alone.  The infrastructure bill will prove that true or not, because it has to pass.  If the GOPpers have no intention of building things for their constituents, as I suspect, then Biden will bless abandoning the filibuster (or forcing it to the floor as a speak-a-thon), and pass it with Dems alone.  If it plays that way, the Republicans are dead for the next cycle.

Let's see who and how many play chicken with their political futures this time. Bets? Anyone?

I'm waiting for a big round of court cases.  Mostly, Fox is being sued by Dominion for reporting on the Big Lie.  That case will involve recordings of Fox repeating the Big Lie, and of their recanting that the Big Lie was a big lie.  Secondly, in Georgia Trump himself is in line for participating in voter fraud.  If those court efforts go as the 50 to 1 cases before them, it gets really hard to perpetuate the alternate version of the truth.

But judging from the fanatics wading through here, the ability of people to ignore the truth is bottomless.

It feels like we're at a pivot point, with the future direction of the nation at stake.  If the theory holds, then this should be resolved, in due course, in favor of the greater good for the greater number, and a loss of trivial "freedoms" for the radical libertarian right.  But, and there always is a "but", we have a lot of pain to endure on the journey.  

Assume that the SCOTUS becomes a monstrous PITA in the path of progress, and may force a step back for every step forward for a while at least.  Is there stomach for court packing?  Will Steven Breyer step down before he falls down? Is Thomas fully healthy?  Or Alito? The rest are under 70,and unlikely to be replaced soon.  So it will fall to political courage -- a rare commodity in Washington DC.

Right, but what is "PITA"?

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-05-2021, 02:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Right, but what is "PITA"?

I think it means "Pain in the..."

Add your favorite body part that starts in 'A' here.

[beechnut79]

(04-05-2021, 05:24 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-05-2021, 02:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Right, but what is "PITA"?

I think it means "Pain in the..."

Add your favorite body part that starts in 'A' here.

Also a bread served at primarily Middle Eastern restaurants. Isn’t it also the name of an activist group targeting the wearing of fur due to animal cruelty?

[David Horn]

(04-05-2021, 06:38 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(04-05-2021, 05:24 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-05-2021, 02:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Right, but what is "PITA"?

I think it means "Pain in the..."

Add your favorite body part that starts in 'A' here.

Also a bread served at primarily Middle Eastern restaurants. Isn’t it also the name of an activist group targeting the wearing of fur due to animal cruelty?

Bob definitely got my intended use.

[Eric the Green]

(04-05-2021, 06:38 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(04-05-2021, 05:24 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(04-05-2021, 02:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Right, but what is "PITA"?

I think it means "Pain in the..."

Add your favorite body part that starts in 'A' here.

Also a bread served at primarily Middle Eastern restaurants. Isn’t it also the name of an activist group targeting the wearing of fur due to animal cruelty?

One letter different: PETA. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals

[Eric the Green]

(03-30-2021, 10:19 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(03-29-2021, 09:25 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(03-29-2021, 04:51 PM)David Horn Wrote: It seems that Biden learned the lesson of 'too little, too late' and is working on a consistent pattern of big wins with Democrats alone.  The infrastructure bill will prove that true or not, because it has to pass.  If the GOPpers have no intention of building things for their constituents, as I suspect, then Biden will bless abandoning the filibuster (or forcing it to the floor as a speak-a-thon), and pass it with Dems alone.  If it plays that way, the Republicans are dead for the next cycle.

Let's see who and how many play chicken with their political futures this time. Bets? Anyone?

I'm waiting for a big round of court cases.  Mostly, Fox is being sued by Dominion for reporting on the Big Lie.  That case will involve recordings of Fox repeating the Big Lie, and of their recanting that the Big Lie was a big lie.  Secondly, in Georgia Trump himself is in line for participating in voter fraud.  If those court efforts go as the 50 to 1 cases before them, it gets really hard to perpetuate the alternate version of the truth.

But judging from the fanatics wading through here, the ability of people to ignore the truth is bottomless.

It feels like we're at a pivot point, with the future direction of the nation at stake.  If the theory holds, then this should be resolved, in due course, in favor of the greater good for the greater number, and a loss of trivial "freedoms" for the radical libertarian right.  But, and there always is a "but", we have a lot of pain to endure on the journey.  

Assume that the SCOTUS becomes a monstrous PITA in the path of progress, and may force a step back for every step forward for a while at least.  Is there stomach for court packing?  Will Steven Breyer step down before he falls down? Is Thomas fully healthy?  Or Alito? The rest are under 70,and unlikely to be replaced soon.  So it will fall to political courage -- a rare commodity in Washington DC.

OK, now that I know what "PITA" means 
I can comment a bit. (I guess PITB would also work, referring to "butt" and "but") So far the Court has been quiet; perhaps they are worried about packing if they go too far right. We can only hope. Meanwhile, the Democrats, as long as Manchin goes along, can pass things that cost money and raise taxes (through reconciliation process), and probably nothing else. Also, the Court can't do much to stop spending; once dollars are spent, the Court can't put the money back in the Treasury. Since the filibuster is not in the Constitution, they can't really uphold that either. Senate rules are up to the Senate.

Meanwhile, unless and until a few more Democrats are elected to the Senate (watch WI, PA and NC in 2022) and Warnock is re-elected (in spite of voter suppression), and Democrats retain the House, only a tepid minimum wage raise at best can be passed, and even mild gun control is hard. Manchin needs to be convinced to support bypassing the filibuster for the sake of the right to vote, and support the For the People Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. These are the kinds of reforms that I forecast for the 2020s. It seems to me it is our destiny to reform our democracy this decade. If we don't, it is pretty-much dead. Also, young people need to vote in midterms, like they failed to do in 2010 and 2014, thus giving us Republican severe gerrymandering, but did better in 2018, thanks to the push from their fellow students in Parkland FL.

The more we can get the GOPHERS out of the way, so they don't dig HOLES that undermine our country and provide its grave, the further forward we can go.

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-06-2021, 02:11 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I can comment a bit. (I guess PITB would also work, referring to "butt" and "but") So far the Court has been quiet; perhaps they are worried about packing if they go too far right. We can only hope. Meanwhile, the Democrats, as long as Manchin goes along, can pass things that cost money and raise taxes (through reconciliation process), and probably nothing else. Also, the Court can't do much to stop spending; once dollars are spent, the Court can't put the money back in the Treasury. Since the filibuster is not in the Constitution, they can't really uphold that either. Senate rules are up to the Senate.

There are multiple types of conservative judges.  The good ones care about the meaning of the text and the authors.  The poor ones have an agenda and are looking for a chance to implement it.  That is the legislature's job.

But most of Trump's judges were first named by a legal think tank, not buddy buddy with Trump himself.  As they were part of the 50 to 1 rejection of the partisan election lawsuits, we can hope they are more of the former type.  Too soon to be sure.

[Eric the Green]

The Federalist Society is reactionary. They are not real federalists. But, we'll see if they push their Republican agenda too far.

[Eric the Green]

Polling Data https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html

Poll...................................Date..............Sample......Approve......Disapprove......Spread
RCP Average......................3/31 - 4/8.....--...............55.2...........39.6................+15.6
Reuters/Ipsos.....................4/7 - 4/8......1005 A........56.............37...................+19
Rasmussen Reports............4/6 - 4/8.......1500 LV......50.............48.....................+2
Economist/YouGov.............4/3 - 4/6.......1243 RV......52.............42...................+10
Politico/Morning Consult.....4/2 - 4/4.......1989 RV......59.............37...................+22
IBD/TIPP...........................3/31 - 4/3.....1215 RV......59.............34...................+25

[Eric the Green]

Polling Data https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
Poll..................................Date..............Sample.........Approve.......Disapprove........Spread
RCP Average....................4/7 - 4/22......--.................52.9.............41.2.................+11.7
Reuters/Ipsos..................4/21 - 4/22....1004 A..........54...............39.....................+15
Rasmussen Reports..........4/20 - 4/22....1500 LV........52...............46.......................+6
Economist/YouGov...........4/17 - 4/20....1225 RV........51...............42.......................+9
The Hill/HarrisX................4/16 - 4/19....2881 RV.......61...............39......................+22
Politico/Morning Consult....4/16 - 4/19...1992 RV.......58................38......................+20
NPR/PBS/Marist..................4/7 - 4/13...1066 RV.......52................41......................+11
Quinnipiac..........................4/8 - 4/12...1237 A.........48................42.......................+6
Monmouth.........................4/8 - 4/12.....743 RV.......53................43......................+10
CNBC.................................4/8 - 4/11.....802 A........47................41........................+6

[pbrower2a]

Here is one indicator of what might be a troublesome situation for a capricious or ineffective President. How people perceive the United States overseas largely reflects the President.



https://i.imgur.com/g8aJVux.png

Having a poor perception overseas as Donald Trump had is not good for cutting deals. Maybe foreign governments saw Donald Trump as someone to wait out, which was the safest approach.  Delusions of grandeur do not lead to great achievements.

[pbrower2a]

State polls have been slow to come in, have they not?

Now with the number of electoral votes applicable to each state for 2024:

[quote author=Tender Branson link=topic=411540.msg8071548#msg8071548 date=1619859075 uid=1660]
CO (Keating Research):

60% approve
38% disapprove

Also:

The KOM Colorado Poll from Keating Research, OnSight Public Affairs and Mike Melanson shows 56% of Colorado voters say they have a favorable opinion of Biden, who completed his 100th day in office on Thursday, while 42% give the president thumbs down.

Biden's favorability has ticked up slightly and his unfavorably has dropped in the six months since the firms last surveyed state voters just before the November election, when candidate Biden polled at 53%-46% favorable.

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/po...ab898.html

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews...d0.pdf.pdf
[/quote]

Do you remember when Colorado typically voted R in Presidential races? It split on Bill Clinton, voting against him when Bill Clinton got 377 electoral votes.

That is over. Oh, is that over!  





Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge (high single digits) for Biden in favorability.

[Eric the Green]

Polling Data........... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
Poll...................................Date.................Sample.......Approve...Disapprove.....Spread
RCP Average.....................4/17 - 5/2.........--................53.8........42.2...............+11.6
Rasmussen Reports...........4/28 - 5/2.........1500 LV.......48...........49....................-1
Reuters/Ipsos...................4/27 - 4/28........1005 A........55...........38.................+17
The Hill/HarrisX.................4/26 - 4/28........2819 RV......60..........40..................+20
Economist/YouGov............4/25 - 4/27........1219 RV.......52..........41.................+11
Politico/Morning Consult....4/24 - 4/26.........1991 RV......60..........37.................+23
CNN.................................4/21 - 4/26.........RV..............52..........45...................+7
Marist...............................4/19 - 4/21........1688 RV......54..........44.................+10
ABC News/Wash Post.........4/18 - 4/21........1007 A........52..........42................+10
FOX News.........................4/18 - 4/21........1002 RV......54..........43................+11
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl......4/17 - 4/20..........790 RV......51..........43..................+8

[pbrower2a]

Joe Biden Approve/Disapprove Data for Progress Polls

Arizona: 53/45
Colorado: 61/37
Georgia: 54/42
Michigan: 52/45
Montana: 42/58
New Hampshire: 54/45
North Carolina: 57/40
Pennsylvania: 54/43
West Virginia: 37/62
Wisconsin: 56/43
[/font][/size][/color][/font][/size][/color][/font][/size][/color]
[/quote]

Twenty-five states now, and the most interesting addition is Pennsylvania. If I saw a map like thiws going into November 2024 I would expect President Biden to win 358 or 375 electoral votes (depending on Ohio)... 415 if Texas goes D. Trump may have been an excellent match for Iowa and Ohio  in 2016 and 2020.

Of course we have the possibility of electoral shenanigans in 2024 that could render strong approval numbers for the President moot in those states.  




Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10% 
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10% 
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge (high single digits) for Biden in favorability.

[Eric the Green]

"Of course we have the possibility of electoral shenanigans in 2024 that could render strong approval numbers for the President moot in those states."

Remember my prediction. If the Democrats nominate Harris in 2024, she will lose no matter whom the Republicans pick.