Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
05-15-2021, 04:09 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-15-2021, 04:12 AM by pbrower2a.)
(05-15-2021, 12:50 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: "Of course we have the possibility of electoral shenanigans in 2024 that could render strong approval numbers for the President moot in those states."
Remember my prediction. If the Democrats nominate Harris in 2024, she will lose no matter whom the Republicans pick.
She has a shrewd legal mind, and that will be good for challenging such electoral shenanigans before they go in place.
It will be better for Republicans in the long run that they lose the 2024 honorably than that they lose dishonorably (let us say, coming up short but using subterfuges to come close -- let us say, nullifying electoral results) or even winning corruptly. In the case of the latter they risk domestic tranquility and discredit themselves. Losses may involve incompetence, failure to connect, or mass contempt for gross misconduct (including corruption and efforts to impose despotism). Democracy depends upon political losses for the despicable, inept, foolish, and inattentive.
The question remains, though: does the GOP have any foresight? A key reality of democracy is that it depends not only on the idea that the better nominee must win, but also upon opposing sides being willing to lose. Communist-run states had elections and even the show of their politicians 'running' for election. The results were highly predictable. There would either be no opposition, or such opposition that existed would get representation but no power. In the former, a ridiculously high percentage of the potential electorate voted and it all voted for the Communist slate. Or, as in the People's Republic of China or the old German Democratic Republic, the Communist-dominated SED predictably won 70% of the parliamentary seats, the Party chairman was obviously 'elected' as the primary leader, and the minority parties got to speak only on issues that mattered little to the Commies.
The GOP is becoming more like a Party of Lenin than the old Party of Lincoln in practice even if still holding antithetical views on economics and social organization to those of Lenin. Marxism-Leninism may be dreadful, but the dictatorship that Marxism assumes is even worse.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
Posts: 4,336
Threads: 7
Joined: Jul 2016
(05-15-2021, 04:09 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (05-15-2021, 12:50 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: "Of course we have the possibility of electoral shenanigans in 2024 that could render strong approval numbers for the President moot in those states."
Remember my prediction. If the Democrats nominate Harris in 2024, she will lose no matter whom the Republicans pick.
She has a shrewd legal mind, and that will be good for challenging such electoral shenanigans before they go in place.
It will be better for Republicans in the long run that they lose the 2024 honorably than that they lose dishonorably (let us say, coming up short but using subterfuges to come close -- let us say, nullifying electoral results) or even winning corruptly. In the case of the latter they risk domestic tranquility and discredit themselves. Losses may involve incompetence, failure to connect, or mass contempt for gross misconduct (including corruption and efforts to impose despotism). Democracy depends upon political losses for the despicable, inept, foolish, and inattentive.
The question remains, though: does the GOP have any foresight? A key reality of democracy is that it depends not only on the idea that the better nominee must win, but also upon opposing sides being willing to lose. Communist-run states had elections and even the show of their politicians 'running' for election. The results were highly predictable. There would either be no opposition, or such opposition that existed would get representation but no power. In the former, a ridiculously high percentage of the potential electorate voted and it all voted for the Communist slate. Or, as in the People's Republic of China or the old German Democratic Republic, the Communist-dominated SED predictably won 70% of the parliamentary seats, the Party chairman was obviously 'elected' as the primary leader, and the minority parties got to speak only on issues that mattered little to the Commies.
The GOP is becoming more like a Party of Lenin than the old Party of Lincoln in practice even if still holding antithetical views on economics and social organization to those of Lenin. Marxism-Leninism may be dreadful, but the dictatorship that Marxism assumes is even worse.
I have to agree with Eric on this. She's the ideal Senator, but not the right choice for POTUS. It's hard to say why exactly, but it has more to do with how she connects with people than any policy or performance issue. People like her, but won't give her the top job. Unfair? Yes, but that's politics in the raw.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Posts: 10,013
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2016
Thanks David.
Today's RCP Biden average approval rate is 11.2
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
Posts: 10,013
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
Little to do with the Presidency, at least directly. The big one:
43. Which comes closer to your point of view: the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, or too much is being made of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th and it is time to move on?
never to be forgotten/time to move on/don't know
T 55-39-6
R 18-74-8
D 84-12-4
I 52-42-4
Potentially affecting the results of elections:
40. Which comes closer to your point of view: it is necessary to pass new voting laws to protect election integrity or it is not necessary to pass new voting laws because elections in the United States are already secure?
[/url]
[url=https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3811#question-5]necessary/not necessary/ don't know or not applicable:
T 50-43-7
R 82-14-3
D 28-68-6
I 53-41-7
Other questions more politically charged include whether people think the two main Parties are serving the best interests of the People, COVID-19 involving inoculation and mask mandates, and on abortion whether people approve or disapprove of Roe v. Wade and expect it to be overturned. These are all highly-polarized issues.
OK -- want to see a non-polarizing issue?
52. As you may know, the United States government has acknowledged there have been unexplained sightings of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, which are more commonly known as UFOs, by military aircraft. Do you think they are man-made aircraft of unknown origin or do you think they are aircraft from another world?
man-made aircraft/from another world/don't know
T 43-35-22
R 43-36-21
D 43-36-21
I 44-34-22
Just look to the poll.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
Posts: 10,013
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2016
05-27-2021, 02:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-27-2021, 03:32 PM by Eric the Green.)
(05-27-2021, 02:13 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Little to do with the Presidency, at least directly. The big one:
43. Which comes closer to your point of view: the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, or too much is being made of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th and it is time to move on?
never to be forgotten/time to move on/don't know
T 55-39-6
R 18-74-8
D 84-12-4
I 52-42-4
Potentially affecting the results of elections:
[/url]40. Which comes closer to your point of view: it is necessary to pass new voting laws to protect election integrity or it is not necessary to pass new voting laws because elections in the United States are already secure?
[url=https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3811#question-5]necessary/not necessary/ don't know or not applicable:
T 50-43-7
R 82-14-3
D 28-68-6
I 53-41-7
Other questions more politically charged include whether people think the two main Parties are serving the best interests of the People, COVID-19 involving inoculation and mask mandates, and on abortion whether people approve or disapprove of Roe v. Wade and expect it to be overturned. These are all highly-polarized issues.
OK -- want to see a non-polarizing issue?
52. As you may know, the United States government has acknowledged there have been unexplained sightings of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, which are more commonly known as UFOs, by military aircraft. Do you think they are man-made aircraft of unknown origin or do you think they are aircraft from another world?
man-made aircraft/from another world/don't know
T 43-35-22
R 43-36-21
D 43-36-21
I 44-34-22
Just look to the poll.
Interesting. The Republicans are so wrong, so many of them, on Jan. 6. But everybody is wrong in equal measure on the UFOs/UAPs. No way can an object made in Russia or China scoot off instantaneously at over 10000 miles an hour, with no exhaust and no visible means of flight!
China still mostly copies USA tech.
Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
(05-27-2021, 02:32 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (05-27-2021, 02:13 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Little to do with the Presidency, at least directly. The big one:
43. Which comes closer to your point of view: the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, or too much is being made of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th and it is time to move on?
never to be forgotten/time to move on/don't know
T 55-39-6
R 18-74-8
D 84-12-4
I 52-42-4
Potentially affecting the results of elections:
[/url]40. Which comes closer to your point of view: it is necessary to pass new voting laws to protect election integrity or it is not necessary to pass new voting laws because elections in the United States are already secure?
[url=https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3811#question-5]necessary/not necessary/ don't know or not applicable:
T 50-43-7
R 82-14-3
D 28-68-6
I 53-41-7
Other questions more politically charged include whether people think the two main Parties are serving the best interests of the People, COVID-19 involving inoculation and mask mandates, and on abortion whether people approve or disapprove of Roe v. Wade and expect it to be overturned. These are all highly-polarized issues.
OK -- want to see a non-polarizing issue?
52. As you may know, the United States government has acknowledged there have been unexplained sightings of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, which are more commonly known as UFOs, by military aircraft. Do you think they are man-made aircraft of unknown origin or do you think they are aircraft from another world?
man-made aircraft/from another world/don't know
T 43-35-22
R 43-36-21
D 43-36-21
I 44-34-22
Just look to the poll.
Interesting. The Republicans are so wrong, so many of them, on Jan. 6. But everybody is wrong in equal measure on the UFOs/UAPs. No way can an object made in Russia or China scoot off instantaneously at over 10000 miles an hour, with no exhaust and no visible means of flight!
China still mostly copies USA tech.
18-74-8. Those in the 74 are excusing an attempted coup, that had it been successful, might have brought an end to American democracy. A leader refusing to accept an electoral loss is one way of starting or continuing a dictatorship. It is possible to believe in all sorts of right-wing measures and still be compatible with democracy. That includes opposition to abortion, support of flat taxes or a national Right-to-Work (fo0r starvation pay) law, or outlaw homosexuality.
I can understand many Republicans thinking that the Capitol putsch is to be treated as an event that went nowhere and thus must be treated as a triviality so that Americans can start some healing process. Such is a delusion. First, it would be terribly wrong if "our side" did it. Second, the intentions were to subvert the electoral process. Third, most Americans who vote have no other participation in the political process; does some clique of crazies have the right to overturn an election because they dislike the result?
...Integrity in elections is of course something that nobody can legitimately oppose. Vote-by-mail in all fifty states and DC (with the Treasury compensating the USPS for costs would make electoral shenanigans of all kinds very difficult. The Post office could make special deliveries on Election Day, closing the last open boxes in accordance with the local law.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
Posts: 4,336
Threads: 7
Joined: Jul 2016
(05-27-2021, 02:32 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: China still mostly copiessteals USA tech.
Fixed that for you.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
(05-28-2021, 08:28 AM)David Horn Wrote: (05-27-2021, 02:32 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: China still mostly copiessteals USA tech.
Fixed that for you.
My brother, who used to live in Silicon Valley, tells how it is done. Employee turnover in the high-tech business is high, and Chinese front organizations put classified ads touting some new high-tech company. People are interviewed and they are talked into leaking proprietary knowledge. To be sure, there is no company and no job, but the interviewer is real and so is the proprietary information. Both return to China. The dummy corporations look like start-up companies commonplace in the industry.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
Posts: 509
Threads: 37
Joined: Aug 2016
(05-28-2021, 08:28 AM)David Horn Wrote: (05-27-2021, 02:32 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: China still mostly copiessteals USA tech.
Fixed that for you.
Guess who used to be the world's biggest stealer of IP?
The Americans.
Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
(05-28-2021, 10:01 AM)Einzige Wrote: (05-28-2021, 08:28 AM)David Horn Wrote: (05-27-2021, 02:32 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: China still mostly copiessteals USA tech.
Fixed that for you.
Guess who used to be the world's biggest stealer of IP?
The Americans.
Over two hundred years ago, when the British were doing restraint of trade on matters other than patents. In more recent times, companies have shared patent knowledge through licensing. Many companies could sell music cassettes, but they all had the trademark "Compact Cassette". Philips and Sony shared the patent, and an entity such as RCA, Warner, or EMI could sell music cassettes only with that trademark attached. Philips and Sony got a tiny cut.
I doubt that anyone at a high level in the Chinese political system today in any way has the ethical values of Alexander Hamilton, and this is not a matter of cultural difference.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
Posts: 4,336
Threads: 7
Joined: Jul 2016
(05-28-2021, 10:01 AM)Einzige Wrote: (05-28-2021, 08:28 AM)David Horn Wrote: (05-27-2021, 02:32 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: China still mostly copiessteals USA tech.
Fixed that for you.
Guess who used to be the world's biggest stealer of IP?
The Americans.
Yes, we stole from the Brits who stole from the Germans. In this case, we stupidly handed them the keys to the safe, and showed them where we store everything. Our stupid collaboration with the Chinese for nearly 30 years should cost stockholders... but it will probably be absorbed by the taxpayers.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
Posts: 10,013
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2016
Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
Two states that Trump won in 2020 in one day. It has been quiet lately in state polling.
IOWA:
Quote:https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/...736797002/
Biden's numbers about the same in Iowa as he got in the election. Dems will be better investing in Alaska in the future instead of winning IA back.
We now clearly out of any 'honeymoon' phase for Presidential approvals. Those who don't know Iowa may not understand how a state that voted for Dukakis in 1988 and Obama twice could be so R now.
Incumbents typically must be in campaign mode to have approval numbers as good as during the election. I'm not writing Biden off in Iowa, seeing the state now on the fringe of contestability. But it is very rural, and I know rural areas in which many Trump banners fly high and proud.
2018 now looks like a freak in Iowa. Any Democrat will need to campaign hard and well here to win., and that might not be enough.
TEXAS:
Quote:Governor Greg Abbott receives a mixed job approval rating as 48 percent of Texas voters approve of the job he's doing and 46 percent disapprove. This is little changed from his 48 - 44 percent job approval rating in July of 2020. Today's disapproval rating is the highest for Abbott since being elected in 2018. Other job approvals are mostly mixed...
Texas State Legislature: 41 percent approve, 47 percent disapprove, with 12 percent not offering an opinion;
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton: 41 percent approve, 39 percent disapprove, with 20 percent not offering an opinion;
Sen. Ted Cruz: 46 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
Sen. John Cornyn: 41 percent approve, 42 percent disapprove, with 17 percent not offering an opinion;
President Joe Biden: 45 percent approve, 50 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion.
45-50 in a state that the Democratic Party has not won in a Presidential election since 1976 is better than one might expect of a President not in campaign mode. Trump won the state by 6%, so draw your conclusions about how Texas is headed. Republicans may need to do voter suppression to win the state in 2024 to keep a hold on power. Approvals for a President typically slide downward as the campaign recedes... which has been true of every Presidential term since Dubya in 2001. We know what happened in September, so I do not expect anything like that.
It is far too early to have much of an idea of how the 2024 Presidential race will turn out, but on the whole, a state in which the incumbent President is down only 45-50 is winnable.
Try figuring this out:
Quote:Texas voters approve of the way Biden is handling the coronavirus 58 - 37 percent, and approve of the way Abbott is handling it 53 - 45 percent.
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3812
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2016&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;5]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2016&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;5&AK=0;3;5&AZ=1;11;4&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;54;9&CO=1;10;7&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=1;30;3&GA=1;16;5&HI=0;4;5&ID=0;4;5&IL=0;19;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;6;4&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;5&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;15;4&MN=0;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;4;6&NV=1;6;4&NH=1;4;4&NJ=1;14;6&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;28;7&NC=1;16;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=0;17;5&OK=2;7;5&OR=1;8;5&PA=1;19;5&RI=0;4;5&SC=0;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=2;40;4&UT=2;6;4&VT=0;3;5&VA=1;13;6&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;4;8&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;5&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;5)
Key:
30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+
50% green shade: tie
30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+
Five months after inauguration, an incumbent whose approval numbers are where the voting results were is doing fine. Not everything succeeds. Typically the entertainment media lampoon high-profile incumbents. Well, the lampooning is still heavily the ex-President and some Republican pols. In need give no names.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
Posts: 10,013
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2016
RCP Average.....................6/1 - 6/22.......--..............53.0....43.3.....+9.7
FOX News.........................6/19 - 6/22.....1001 RV....56.......43........+13
Economist/YouGov............6/20 - 6/22......1223 RV....52......44.........+8
Rasmussen Reports...........6/20 - 6/22......1500 LV....52......46.........+6
Politico/Morning Consult....6/18 - 6/20......2041 RV....54......43.........+11
Reuters/Ipsos...................6/16 - 6/17......1002 A......52......42.........+10
Monmouth........................6/9 - 6/14.........758 RV....49......43.........+6
Gallup...............................6/1 - 6/18.......1012 A......56......42.........+14
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
Except for Monmouth, every one of those pollsters has approval for President Biden at or above his share of the popular vote in the 2020 election. Even Monmouth has a bigger gap between approval and disapproval than the gap between Biden and Trump in the electoral result.
President Biden is doing far better in not alienating people through his conduct and policies than did Trump. Trump never really recovered.
I figure that President Biden is much less abrasive and offensive. So far he seems to be downplaying the January 6 Putsch so that the legal system can take its course; what can the President do? This is an ace up the sleeve for Democrats in the elections of 2022 and 2024.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
Posts: 10,013
Threads: 103
Joined: May 2016
06-25-2021, 01:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-25-2021, 01:17 PM by Eric the Green.)
Texas still has a long way to go, if 46% of Texas voters approve of the worst senator in the country. Beto O'Rourke couldn't quite defeat him.
And consider how low the Republicans have fallen, by remembering that in the 2016 election, they chose between the two worst candidates for president ever in US history. They are mad; they are hopeless!
Posts: 3,956
Threads: 11
Joined: May 2016
(06-25-2021, 01:15 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Texas still has a long way to go, if 46% of Texas voters approve of the worst senator in the country. Beto O'Rourke couldn't quite defeat him.
And consider how low the Republicans have fallen, by remembering that in the 2016 election, they chose between the two worst candidates for president ever in US history. They are mad; they are hopeless!
The way I look at it, they are for the superiority of the cavalier culture and the advance of autocracy. This is not stupid. For a long time people were centered on their culture, made up excuses to dislike members of other cultures, and engaged in oppression and violence on behalf of their culture. This used to be the norm, what was done.
At least before democracy, human right, equality, machine guns, nukes, insurgent wars, proxy wars, non violent change…
Still, it might well qualify as mad and hopeless, and in more places than just Texas.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
06-25-2021, 05:22 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-25-2021, 05:24 PM by pbrower2a.)
![[Image: colinwoodard_americannations_map.jpg?w=595&h=446]](https://jaymans.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/colinwoodard_americannations_map.jpg?w=595&h=446)
Here is one map depicting how early English, French, Dutch, German, and Spanish settlement created political cultures in America. I don't fully agree with it, but in general the institutions largely fit even if the ethnic mix is very different from the original settlers. The Spanish settled much of the southern tier of what would eventually be part of the United States. The first European settlers established the political institutions, economic patterns, and educational practices in place to this day. Later immigrants may have kept their religious beliefs and surnames, but they accommodated what was available. Thus later mass settlement, as by the Irish, might take over institutions as populations shifted, but they did not transform those institutions.
Trump did badly in Yankee-Land, even doing worse than average for Republicans since 1952 in Utah -- twice. Mormons are reactionaries on economics, but also hostile to flamboyant hedonism of the sort that Trump exemplifies in his personal life. He also did horrendously in the Tidewater region, losing Virginia by 10% and almost losing North Carolina. The Left Coast? He got slaughtered there politically. New Spain? Trump lost California , which is mostly New Spain (and I could make the case that "New Spain" has 'taken back' the San Francisco Bay Area and Sacramento) but also Arizona. Trump did unusually badly in Texas for a Republican, and that bodes ill for the GOP unless Republicans can reverse or suppress the trend of an increasingly-large Mexican-American electorate.
.......
American regional differences (except in greater New York City, southern Louisiana, far-south Florida, and "New Spain") reflect to no small extent the folkways of the parts of Britain whence the early settlers came:
![[Image: uk-origins3.png?w=314&h=300]](https://jaymans.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/uk-origins3.png?w=314&h=300)
Gaelic Scots largely went to Canada. The Catholics from what is now the Republic of Ireland did not start appearing in large numbers in North America until the early-middle part of the nineteenth century, and those found institutions already in place. It is not surprising that they assimilated heavily into the almost-exclusively Catholic Cajun/Creole population of South Florida and the Spanish-Mexican populations of New Spain.
What about the Dutch? The people of southeastern England had extensive ties to the Netherlands, Scandinavia, and northwestern Germany. London was part of the Hanseatic trading area. People of New England stock could assimilate people who weren't particularly Dutch.
The cultural divide decided the Civil War. Appalachian counties of Virginia seceded from Virginia to form West Virginia in 1863. In the referendum on secession in Tennessee between the Union and the Confederacy, eastern Tennessee voted heavily for the Union and western Tennessee voted heavily for the Confederacy to defend the slave-owning way of life. Ordinarily, large Armies do everything possible to avoid mountain campaigns due to the difficulties of transportation that normally make such areas easy to defend -- unless the people of those mountain areas are sympathetic to one's cause. The Union Army made the most of the hostility of Appalachia to slave-owning planters who saw the Mountain Folk largely as cannon fodder in the defense of slavery. It wasn't that the peoples of Appalachia had any sympathy for slaves; these people had little use for anything exotic. They hated the slave-owning planters for bringing black slaves into the eastern Tennessee Valley. Once the Union Army fully took over eastern Tennessee it could deliver the death-blow to the Confederacy with General William Tecumseh Sherman's thrust through Atlanta to the Atlantic Ocean, separating the middle part of the Confederacy from the northeast (Virginia and the Carolinas).
... in recent elections, Republicans have had a firm hold on Appalachia, "New France", and the Deep South. and have made gains in the Midlands (notably Iowa)... only to lose badly in "Yankee Land", "New Spain" and the Tidewater region. This holds for Trump. He lost Georgia in 2020 because of Greater Atlanta, which votes more like Greater Chicago than like any other part of Georgia.
The GOP is in deep trouble if one of two things happens. One is that Greater Appalachia reverts to its pre-2000 pattern (probably unlikely) or white people in the Deep South split their vote more like 60-40 R from about 75-25 R Such would be the death-blow to the GOP machine in Texas. Either way the GOP would lose a Presidential election in a landslide in a way not seen since :BJ trounced Goldwater.
Maps from here, and then some. This site has plenty of relevant reading.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
Posts: 10,465
Threads: 197
Joined: May 2016
Let's take a look at the first area of Yankee settlement. It was completely unattractive to other settlers than peoples of southeastern England. The soils were stony, so agriculture was not going to offer easy growing of high-value crops. The climate was too cold for plantation agriculture. Efforts to establish plantation agriculture failed because the African slaves died in the cold. There were no minerals to be exploited, and no large population of sedentary First People s offered any opportunity for easy exploitation. New England had good water transportation which was good for commerce. Fishing proved important as a supplement to what would otherwise have been subsistence agriculture.
David Hackett-Fisher makes note of the unusually-long life expectancies in New England among political and religious leaders. Life expectancies are uncharacteristic for a pre-industrial community. Some of the economic activities infamous for low life expectancies, like mining, were rare. Commerce at best is a healthy mix of mental and physical activity. The sybaritic excess that one associates with slave-owning planters leads to obesity and diabetes from idleness, over-eating and over-rich eating, and copious drink didn't contribute to early deaths among elites, hardly existed. Alcohol consumption was slight and rare, so cirrhotic livers were rare... as were bar-room brawls that tended to cause frequent deaths.
Democratic institutions, including the oldest continuously-elected legislature in the world (the Massachusetts General Court, formed early. So did the legal profession. Educational standards were high, with Harvard College being established in 1636 -- a mere sixteen years after the establishment of the Massachusetts Bay Colony. There was no easy money to be made but one could earn a solid income the hard way. Economic inequality was slight for the time. Political upheavals were unlikely. Not having much portable wealth in the forms of precious metals, spices, sugar, or tobacco it was not a target for pirates and it wasn't the sort of area that some other Great Power really wanted.
The one way in which to reliably die quickly was to be a criminal. It was far safer to be a fisherman than a pirate.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
|
