Alternating 4T pattern explained

[galaxy]

(06-28-2021, 06:39 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I believe that the New Economic Plan (NEP) was listed as an abortive 1T for the Soviet Union.

Where's the list?

[Captain Genet]

(06-29-2021, 12:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-28-2021, 08:14 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-26-2021, 11:45 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: You seem rather free with your use of the word racism. Since I am Caucasian, and the Caucasus is near Russia, and since slavic peoples are white, I'd have to be racist against myself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Slavic_sentiment

Some you say there are three human races (White, Black and Mongolian) or five (with Semites and Native Americans classified separately). If you understand the word racism pedantically, no person of English or Celtic ancestry could be racist against Slavs. But if one understands racism more broadly, it can encompass any ethnic prejudice.

In the pedantic sense, antisemitism is not racism because there is no Jewish race.

galaxy Wrote:I'm not sure what you mean. Is there a good example of this somewhere?

I think the restauration of Bourbons in France in 1814-30 was a failed 1T after which France went back to the 4T mood.

Actually, the French 1T was a mostly-successful period from 1799 to 1815, in which Napoleon ended the Revolution and imposed order, except that Napoleon was too ambitious and hubristic, but was still considered the most successful ruler in French history and accomplished a lot to bring Europe forward. The Awakening in France and Europe actually started in 1815 after the Vienna settlement with a revival of revolutionary sentiment among young soldiers and students. Romanticism reached its height in this era, but then in 1834 the revolutionary enthusiasm was squelched for a while with the suppression of the last in a series of revolts, and realism began to be seen among some artists. Europe entered the 3T, which continued until the 1847-50 period when famine and revolution erupted, disrupting the stagnation imposed by the post-Vienna consortium and replacing it with nationalists. A series of 4T wars began after a civil war in Turkey erupted around 1850, leading to the Crimean War. It was the first in a series of nationalist wars that created the next era of real-politik. The next saeculum began in 1871 after the Franco-Prussian War solidified the new regime, which created a new stability in which material innovation and colonial conquest accelerated, followed by the next 2T beginning in the late 1880s which dissolved this materialism into the world of modernism and alienation in the 3T, in which the triumphant but dangerous and malevolent real-politik, materialism and nationalism expanded into the world wars that ended European dominance and colonialism and discredited realist, racist nationalism, opening today's global civilization and millennial seaculum.

Makes lots of sense. So there was a normal saeculum, only somewhat faster. I'll make it a list, easier for future users to absorb:

Enlightenment Saeculum
4T 1776-1799 (23 years)

Romantic Saeculum
1T 1799-1815 (16 years)
2T 1815-1834 (19 years)
3T 1834-1850 (16 years)
4T 1850-1870 (20 years)

[pbrower2a]

(06-30-2021, 12:13 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(06-28-2021, 06:39 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I believe that the New Economic Plan (NEP) was listed as an abortive 1T for the Soviet Union.

Where's the list?

I suggested that. Lenin recognized that his War Communism wasn't working, and if he had to revive some aspects of capitalism to make "Socialism" more effective and indeed possible in the future, so it would be. Russia started to get out of the worst of a Crisis era -- before Stalin took over and added his own madness in the name of Socialism. Then came the collectivization of Soviet agriculture and the Great Purge. Such made the USSR look like an easy conquest for Adolf Hitler, and Hitler imposed his own Crisis upon the western Soviet Union.

Crises do not solve themselves even through exhaustion. Great leaders who have some moral compass, like Lincoln, Churchill, and FDR might be unable to stop a Crisis Era, but when things start to get good they can decide that enough is enough of any mass death. 

Institutions that made the waging of a Crisis war do not fade away rapidly. The conscription that made creating a large army possible remains in place. The generals from the previous war are still capable of waging war if necessary. The people who knew how to transform a civilian economy into a war machine are still in place, so businesses that could make personal automobiles before the war, tanks during the war, and personal automobiles after the war can go back to making tanks if the need arises. Refinements of military devices that appeared too late to make a difference in the war can be put into use easily.

The habits of economic and social regimentation of a 4T don't quite die in a 1T; they might simply morph into new purposes. Consider the Korean Conflict; the USA used doctrines of World War II in its conduct. Had the Commies succeeded and used southern Korea as a springboard for an invasion of Japan, then we might have had a genuine revival of a Crisis Era. America obviously did not get the sort of mad leadership that Russia got in the 1930's that could revive the ferocity of a Crisis era, which makes a great difference.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I was referring to an archived thread, "The Bolshevik Revolution through the Great Patriotic War--a 28-year Crisis Era?"

[Tim Randal Walker]

I would note that proto-Prophet kids grow up during the most spiritually stale turning, the 1T. Consider-by the time the 1T starts....

1. The ranks of the old Prophet generation are thinning.

2. Aging Nomads take over the top leadership posts.

3. Many younger adults have no personal memories of the last 2T, now decades in the past.


Actually, as I noted in another thread, number 3 already applies to people who have reached their fortieth birthdays. Many people in America were but a few years old when the Boom Awakening ended.

Spiritual staleness is one thing young Prophets are reacting against, though this applies to both Dionysus and Apollo 2Ts. A commonality, actually, between different 2Ts.

[Captain Genet]

(07-01-2021, 09:51 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Spiritual staleness is one thing young Prophets are reacting against, though this applies to both Dionysus and Apollo 2Ts.  A commonality, actually, between different 2Ts.

In an Apollonian 1T, we have the spiritual staleness of a robot society. In a Dionysian one, the spiritual staleness of an endless party.

[Eric the Green]

(07-01-2021, 10:41 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(07-01-2021, 09:51 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Spiritual staleness is one thing young Prophets are reacting against, though this applies to both Dionysus and Apollo 2Ts.  A commonality, actually, between different 2Ts.

In an Apollonian 1T, we have the spiritual staleness of a robot society. In a Dionysian one, the spiritual staleness of an endless party.

The Awakening of circa 1886-1908 was not a robotic society, at least not among people who were influenced by or involved in the Awakening, and the spirituality of the Awakening was anything but stale.

I guess, though, that you could say the industrial society that was strong and growing at this time was robotic. But the dominant industrial society was still not much less robotic in the 1960s and 70s, although the people involved in the Awakening were rejecting it and rebelling against it. Tim has it basically correct here.

[Eric the Green]

(06-30-2021, 02:55 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-29-2021, 12:38 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-28-2021, 08:14 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-26-2021, 11:45 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: You seem rather free with your use of the word racism. Since I am Caucasian, and the Caucasus is near Russia, and since slavic peoples are white, I'd have to be racist against myself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Slavic_sentiment

Some you say there are three human races (White, Black and Mongolian) or five (with Semites and Native Americans classified separately). If you understand the word racism pedantically, no person of English or Celtic ancestry could be racist against Slavs. But if one understands racism more broadly, it can encompass any ethnic prejudice.

In the pedantic sense, antisemitism is not racism because there is no Jewish race.

galaxy Wrote:I'm not sure what you mean. Is there a good example of this somewhere?

I think the restauration of Bourbons in France in 1814-30 was a failed 1T after which France went back to the 4T mood.

Actually, the French 1T was a mostly-successful period from 1799 to 1815, in which Napoleon ended the Revolution and imposed order, except that Napoleon was too ambitious and hubristic, but was still considered the most successful ruler in French history and accomplished a lot to bring Europe forward. The Awakening in France and Europe actually started in 1815 after the Vienna settlement with a revival of revolutionary sentiment among young soldiers and students. Romanticism reached its height in this era, but then in 1834 the revolutionary enthusiasm was squelched for a while with the suppression of the last in a series of revolts, and realism began to be seen among some artists. Europe entered the 3T, which continued until the 1847-50 period when famine and revolution erupted, disrupting the stagnation imposed by the post-Vienna consortium and replacing it with nationalists. A series of 4T wars began after a civil war in Turkey erupted around 1850, leading to the Crimean War. It was the first in a series of nationalist wars that created the next era of real-politik. The next saeculum began in 1871 after the Franco-Prussian War solidified the new regime, which created a new stability in which material innovation and colonial conquest accelerated, followed by the next 2T beginning in the late 1880s which dissolved this materialism into the world of modernism and alienation in the 3T, in which the triumphant but dangerous and malevolent real-politik, materialism and nationalism expanded into the world wars that ended European dominance and colonialism and discredited realist, racist nationalism, opening today's global civilization and millennial saeculum.

Makes lots of sense. So there was a normal saeculum, only somewhat faster. I'll make it a list, easier for future users to absorb:

Enlightenment Saeculum
4T 1776-1799 (23 years)

Romantic Saeculum
1T 1799-1815 (16 years)
2T 1815-1834 (19 years)
3T 1834-1850 (16 years)
4T 1850-1870 (20 years)

Yes, good list.

The "Romantic" Saeculum (known in T4T as the Civil War saeculum) was faster, I think, because it sped up the saeculum as progress speeded up.

The 4T in France in the enlightenment saeculum probably started in 1781 after the American Revolution, when the French monarchy announced it was bankrupt because of its support for the new USA during its war of independence, and thereupon started trying to squeeze more money out of the aristocracy. Out of this crisis, the Revolution erupted.

[Captain Genet]

(07-01-2021, 05:57 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-01-2021, 10:41 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(07-01-2021, 09:51 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Spiritual staleness is one thing young Prophets are reacting against, though this applies to both Dionysus and Apollo 2Ts.  A commonality, actually, between different 2Ts.

In an Apollonian 1T, we have the spiritual staleness of a robot society. In a Dionysian one, the spiritual staleness of an endless party.

The Awakening of circa 1886-1908 was not a robotic society, at least not among people who were influenced by or involved in the Awakening, and the spirituality of the Awakening was anything but stale.

I guess, though, that you could say the industrial society that was strong and growing at this time was robotic. But the dominant industrial society was still not much less robotic in the 1960s and 70s, although the people involved in the Awakening were rejecting it and rebelling against it. Tim has it basically correct here.

You misunderstood me. I suggested a robotic society during a High not an Awakening. GI consensus was robotic, and Millennial consensus will likely look like an endless online party.

Staleness can continue during the Awakening among old Civics and some Artists who avoid a midlife crisis.

[Eric the Green]

(07-05-2021, 04:41 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(07-01-2021, 05:57 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(07-01-2021, 10:41 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(07-01-2021, 09:51 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Spiritual staleness is one thing young Prophets are reacting against, though this applies to both Dionysus and Apollo 2Ts.  A commonality, actually, between different 2Ts.

In an Apollonian 1T, we have the spiritual staleness of a robot society. In a Dionysian one, the spiritual staleness of an endless party.

The Awakening of circa 1886-1908 was not a robotic society, at least not among people who were influenced by or involved in the Awakening, and the spirituality of the Awakening was anything but stale.

I guess, though, that you could say the industrial society that was strong and growing at this time was robotic. But the dominant industrial society was still not much less robotic in the 1960s and 70s, although the people involved in the Awakening were rejecting it and rebelling against it. Tim has it basically correct here.

You misunderstood me. I suggested a robotic society during a High not an Awakening. GI consensus was robotic, and Millennial consensus will likely look like an endless online party.

Staleness can continue during the Awakening among old Civics and some Artists who avoid a midlife crisis.

So it appears (I misunderstood you). But I think 1Ts are not that different from each other, and I don't know of any Dionysian "endless-party" 1Ts in history. The conspicuous consumption of the gilded age and the American High were as close to "parties" as we could get, and were not that different. The condition of society is already rapidly approaching roboticism today, courtesy of millennials and Xers who don't get the previous Awakening. The human potential and personal growth methods and the breakthrough of social and sexual walls have pretty much dried up, as far as I can see, and high rents destroy any alternative gathering places. Curiosity about life has been reduced again to physical science curiosity and tech obsession. Neil DeGrasse Tyson seems enough to satisfy them. And an online party is no party at all anyway. Virtual life is not life, but that appears to be the life that millennials prefer, and society is being taken in that direction along with them.

But I agree there is a degree of staleness during an Awakening, or anytime, especially in an essentially stale society like the USA. The turnings are just degrees of difference, and probably younger generations are more likely to respond to the mood of the times than old dogs and stuck in the muds.

[pbrower2a]

(07-01-2021, 09:27 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I was referring to an archived thread, "The Bolshevik Revolution through the Great Patriotic War--a 28-year Crisis Era?"

Men make history, but history also shapes the people who live through it. Thoroughly-bad people like Hitler and Stalin make really-bad history. In the case of Hitler, successful enemies like Churchill and FDR must wage a veritable jihad against him to save their systems. 

Hitler was simply evil, and even more as an autodidact on history he missed much. He saw American history mostly as "Cowboys and Indians", which is grossly inadequate.  All that one needs to do to realize how distorted his understanding of American history was is to examine the index of Mein Kampf. Significantly missing are Washington, Hamilton, Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, and (Theodore) Roosevelt. He did not recognize the abolitionist movement or the struggle for the rights of Negroes (the polite word of the time). Most obviously he got the Jews and Judaism wrong. Maybe Jews and Judaism became a surrogate for what he disliked in himself. Rather than recognizing Jews and Judaism as the founders of the ethical morality of Christianity he saw them as impediments to his desires. So Judaism is incompatible with Hitler's megalomania? 

Coming from antisemitic families, the more that I heard the garbage that is antisemitism, the more curious I got about Jews and Judaism... and the better they looked. I got to meet large numbers of Jews at one point and discovered how wrong antisemitism was. I'm not much of a rebel, but antisemitism is something against which to rebel. Maybe were I from an Italian-American family of Mafia groupies I might love the Italian component of Western high culture but loathe the Mafia. Maybe if I were from some red-diaper family of Jewish origin I would see something terribly wrong with Commies and concur with Churchill that the solution to the "International" Jew is for that Jew to return to Judaism. About half my ancestry is German or Swiss, and as I confront the Nazi part of German history I recognize that there was nothing wrong with German culture and the Nazi amorality between 1933 and 1945 that  Judaism could not have solved. Judaism keeps asking the same questions that it has answered for over two millennia because those questions emerge often enough and among all peoples. 

If Hitler so mangled history through his selective learning (a commonplace characteristic of an autodidact) as a basis of a twisted dream that could only implode of its own gross immorality, Stalin made history within the realm of his power a more dangerous phenomenon. Stalin had more formal learning than Hitler, much of it through a seminary, and he turned his knowledge of the pedagogy of the seminary on behalf of something very different from the Georgian Orthodox Church. Much of his writing reflects that pedagogy, and it well fit the elementary level of learning common in the USSR in the 1930's. Until people in large numbers got learned enough to recognize the emptiness of the political catechism of Stalinism , his system would be unassailable. (Note well that all modern despots  from Lenin to Mao to Reza II to Qaddafi to Mugabe to Saddam work most effectively with people of elementary-level learning; grossly-illiterate people cannot understand the propaganda, but people excessively learned for it recognize the hypocrisy, hollowness, inconsistency, and hollowness of what they are told. Most despots who have taken charge of a country in which illiteracy is rife have started literacy programs heavy on propaganda. But if people are already fairly-well educated, as in Hitler's Germany, Castro's Cuba, or Pinochet's Chile the despot must debase learning. It is quite possible that Hitler saw a menace in the Jews for their respect for learning (all the better for the refinement of moral law that underpins Judaism, and moral law that undermines an immoral order can only be a menace to an evil cause). Note that the most persistent fascist cause in America, the KKK, has consistently done best among people of minimal learning. If you think that this is simply a fault with white people in America, then consider also the urban gangs: the smarter that one is, the more one loathes them if one is from the ethnic group that predominates in the gangs.  Note that support for Donald Trump in America has a strong negative correlation to formal learning. 51% of white college graduates voted against him.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Regarding Captain Genet's comments regarding Awakenings....

Triumphant 4T>super conformist 1T High>super individualistic Bohemian 2T

The Bohemian aspect may be partly a reaction against super conformist bland/dull 1T, and particularly against an aging, clean cut Civic generation. Which, during the Boom Awakening, included long hair on young men. Also, clothing of younger people trending differently compared to their elders garb.

During the other half of the cycle, during the Apollo 2T, there may be less to react against in terms of sterile, stultifying conformism.

Regarding Galaxy's comments regarding Unravelings....

Galaxy made a distinction between powerful 3Ts and weak 3Ts. As I recall, somebody posted to the paleo site a distinction between "rough" and "slick" 3Ts. If I recall correctly, the recent 3T was deemed rough, and I believe corresponded to a powerful 3T. So the previous 3T-think 1920s-would have been slick, and corresponding to weaker 3T. It may well be that a milder 2T degrades the old Civic order less than a more powerful 2T, so even if the general mood is similar, a rough 3T may start out more unraveled than a slick 3T.

[pbrower2a]

(08-07-2021, 10:21 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Regarding Captain Genet's comments regarding Awakenings....

Triumphant 4T>super conformist 1T High>super individualistic Bohemian 2T

The Bohemian aspect may be partly a reaction against super conformist bland/dull 1T, and particularly against an aging, clean cut Civic generation.  Which, during the Boom Awakening, included long hair on young men.  Also, clothing of younger people trending differently compared to their elders garb.

During the other half of the cycle, during the Apollo 2T, there is less to react against in terms of stultifying conformism, at least on an individual level.

Regarding Galaxy's comments regarding Unravelings....

Galaxy made a distinction between powerful 3Ts and weak 3Ts.  As I recall, somebody posted to the paleo site a distinction between "rough" and "slick" 3Ts.  If I recall correctly, the recent 3T was deemed rough, and I believed corresponded to a powerful 3T.  So the previous 3T-in vogue during the 1920s-would have been slick, and weaker.  It may well be that a milder 2T degrades the old Civic order less than a more powerful 2T, so even if the general mood is the same, a rough 3T may start out more unraveled than a slick 3T.

GI conformity among men reflects that they saw a world dangerously crazy and had to act with extreme conformity to avoid the dangers of crazy ideas such as fascism and eventually Stalinism and Maoism. The men were more likely than soldiers in most wars to survive it, and they got a longer and more pervasive experience with an ethos that said that if something offered a strong sensation it was dangerous.  Food is especially telling, although this wasn't entirely military experience: GI's liked their food unseasoned and cooked to tasteless blandness and mushy texture. At a certain point in military life, logistics becomes the dominant factor in determining how things go. Supply of food and munitions becomes as important as moving troops about, and one does not take logistics as a triviality. 

Unable to seek the sublime while at war (that's one thing that goes -- the Voyage to the Interior) they were told to focus on immediate concerns and not on emotional or aesthetic depth. The GIs may have done many things well, but they were particularly poor at poetry.  

Conformity is a consequence of military discipline which disparages individuality at the least in the name of esprit de corps. Habits learned over as many as nearly four years (especially if one got into the Armed Forces "for the duration" early) don't fade easily; indeed they can permeate all aspects of life for the rest of one's adult life.   That shaped politics, religion, and culture; it made GI's as docile in the workplace as it made them productive. 

GI's (Silent) children who saw the war going on while old enough to be conscious of events may have wavered from the GI ways, but they were impressed of some need to conform in the High. The Boom kids didn't see such conformity as anything but stultifying. Rigorous discipline in the workplace wasn't necessary for making more productivity when society was producing everything that people needed easily and the only question was of ensuring that everyone had a share. Boomers were less likely to see something foreign and exotic as dangerous just for being dangerous, but instead potentially enriching. For GI's, "German" meant "Nazis", the SS, and the Gestapo -- and ultimately for Americans, Dachau and Mauthausen  concentration camps. For Boomers, "German" may have instead meant J S Bach and Thomas Mann... and of course, the rich cultural input of German Jews into American life. 

As for 3T's... they get heavily repudiated during a 4T. The 1920's repudiated themselves in a 1T that quickly repudiated the speculative boom once and for all for anyone who had experienced both it and the Crash. Such pop culture as survived had to sanitize in an omnibus culture that itself became extremely slick.. and often had a message (whatever you do, do not be delinquent!). As I see it, the omnibus culture parallel to that of the last 4T never developed, so 3T behavior in personal life, economics, and politics has remained much more intact this time than the last time. 

COVID-19 looks like the Crisis of 2020, and it may be reshaping American life by repudiating many 3T ways such as belief in conspiracy theories. As those conspiracy theories die there will be a political and cultural vacuum to fill. That may style the end of this Crisis Era (and we are much closer to its end than to its middle, let alone its beginning!) and the High. We may have a following Awakening that does not have so much of a confrontational edge. There may be far less against which to rebel around 2035.

[nguyenivy]

(08-07-2021, 12:15 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(08-07-2021, 10:21 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Regarding Captain Genet's comments regarding Awakenings....

Triumphant 4T>super conformist 1T High>super individualistic Bohemian 2T

The Bohemian aspect may be partly a reaction against super conformist bland/dull 1T, and particularly against an aging, clean cut Civic generation.  Which, during the Boom Awakening, included long hair on young men.  Also, clothing of younger people trending differently compared to their elders garb.

During the other half of the cycle, during the Apollo 2T, there is less to react against in terms of stultifying conformism, at least on an individual level.

Regarding Galaxy's comments regarding Unravelings....

Galaxy made a distinction between powerful 3Ts and weak 3Ts.  As I recall, somebody posted to the paleo site a distinction between "rough" and "slick" 3Ts.  If I recall correctly, the recent 3T was deemed rough, and I believed corresponded to a powerful 3T.  So the previous 3T-in vogue during the 1920s-would have been slick, and weaker.  It may well be that a milder 2T degrades the old Civic order less than a more powerful 2T, so even if the general mood is the same, a rough 3T may start out more unraveled than a slick 3T.

GI conformity among men reflects that they saw a world dangerously crazy and had to act with extreme conformity to avoid the dangers of crazy ideas such as fascism and eventually Stalinism and Maoism. The men were more likely than soldiers in most wars to survive it, and they got a longer and more pervasive experience with an ethos that said that if something offered a strong sensation it was dangerous.  Food is especially telling, although this wasn't entirely military experience: GI's liked their food unseasoned and cooked to tasteless blandness and mushy texture. At a certain point in military life, logistics becomes the dominant factor in determining how things go. Supply of food and munitions becomes as important as moving troops about, and one does not take logistics as a triviality. 

Unable to seek the sublime while at war (that's one thing that goes -- the Voyage to the Interior) they were told to focus on immediate concerns and not on emotional or aesthetic depth. The GIs may have done many things well, but they were particularly poor at poetry.  

Conformity is a consequence of military discipline which disparages individuality at the least in the name of esprit de corps. Habits learned over as many as nearly four years (especially if one got into the Armed Forces "for the duration" early) don't fade easily; indeed they can permeate all aspects of life for the rest of one's adult life.   That shaped politics, religion, and culture; it made GI's as docile in the workplace as it made them productive. 

GI's (Silent) children who saw the war going on while old enough to be conscious of events may have wavered from the GI ways, but they were impressed of some need to conform in the High. The Boom kids didn't see such conformity as anything but stultifying. Rigorous discipline in the workplace wasn't necessary for making more productivity when society was producing everything that people needed easily and the only question was of ensuring that everyone had a share. Boomers were less likely to see something foreign and exotic as dangerous just for being dangerous, but instead potentially enriching. For GI's, "German" meant "Nazis", the SS, and the Gestapo -- and ultimately for Americans, Dachau and Mauthausen  concentration camps. For Boomers, "German" may have instead meant J S Bach and Thomas Mann... and of course, the rich cultural input of German Jews into American life. 

As for 3T's... they get heavily repudiated during a 4T. The 1920's repudiated themselves in a 1T that quickly repudiated the speculative boom once and for all for anyone who had experienced both it and the Crash. Such pop culture as survived had to sanitize in an omnibus culture that itself became extremely slick.. and often had a message (whatever you do, do not be delinquent!). As I see it, the omnibus culture parallel to that of the last 4T never developed, so 3T behavior in personal life, economics, and politics has remained much more intact this time than the last time. 

COVID-19 looks like the Crisis of 2020, and it may be reshaping American life by repudiating many 3T ways such as belief in conspiracy theories. As those conspiracy theories die there will be a political and cultural vacuum to fill. That may style the end of this Crisis Era (and we are much closer to its end than to its middle, let alone its beginning!) and the High. We may have a following Awakening that does not have so much of a confrontational edge. There may be far less against which to rebel around 2035.

Regarding the 3T behaviour remaining intact, I would imagine there will come a time (maybe it will take until we're fully in the upcoming 1T?) where the 3T behaviours that are not a net-gain in society are cast away. IIRC 3Ts are a time when people atomise more, right? So a libertarian attitude of 'live and let live', or you can live in your own little world doing what you like without interference are such things that can become dangerous in the 4T like we're seeing now with COVID & climate change, as our actions can indeed have consequences on the rest of the world and it shows a lot more clearly now in the 4T.

What sort of personal things got big in the 3T that would likely not fly in a 1T? What does society usually care about in the 3T that is rejected or at least de-prioritised by the time we're in a 1T? I know economically, the whole trickle-down thing wouldn't work as we've just seen decades of a small group of people getting ever-larger slices of the pie while the everyday person works ever-harder to keep up. Political divisions appeared to have grown ever-wider during the 3T & into the 4T with no big resolution as of yet, so something has to give there by the time we're in the 1T.

[pbrower2a]

(08-15-2021, 02:37 AM)nguyenivy Wrote: [

Regarding the 3T behaviour remaining intact, I would imagine there will come a time (maybe it will take until we're fully in the upcoming 1T?) where the 3T behaviours that are not a net-gain in society are cast away. IIRC 3Ts are a time when people atomise more, right? So a libertarian attitude of 'live and let live', or you can live in your own little world doing what you like without interference are such things that can become dangerous in the 4T like we're seeing now with COVID & climate change, as our actions can indeed have consequences on the rest of the world and it shows a lot more clearly now in the 4T.

Atomization of society is exactly what I would want if I wanted to break down the institutions necessary for its defense. "Every man for himself" is one way to ensure that almost everyone ends up financially broke and personally broken. So if one is in the leadership of a power on a course of conquest one might promote extremist causes of both sides of the spectrum (one of those will collaborate, and the other will either sell out or be individually liquidated), push ethnic and religious divisions, and economic polarization. Obviously, create a Fifth Column of defeatists who see a military defeat as the perfect opportunity for establishing an unpopular agenda. With "every man for himself", but nobody capable looking out for himself except for selling out everyone else, some people will accept a more-privileged form of slavery or serfdom as a sick form of self-esteem. Maybe if one is greedy one can keep for oneself a little of what the occupiers steal as a sort of finder's fee for ratting out stores of hidden wealth. 

Maybe some people look at climate change as an opportunity to sell waterfront property multiple times as the Gulf of Mexico inundates in turn New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Natchez, Vicksburg, Greenville (Mississippi), Clarksdale, and eventually Memphis. OK, if Pine Bluff, Arkansas (an infamous dump of a community) becomes the saltwater port of the Arkansas River it might become a great new metropolis... but that is a high price for others to pay.  

Quote:What sort of personal things got big in the 3T that would likely not fly in a 1T? What does society usually care about in the 3T that is rejected or at least de-prioritised by the time we're in a 1T? I know economically, the whole trickle-down thing wouldn't work as we've just seen decades of a small group of people getting ever-larger slices of the pie while the everyday person works ever-harder to keep up. Political divisions appeared to have grown ever-wider during the 3T & into the 4T with no big resolution as of yet, so something has to give there by the time we're in the 1T.

1. Neoliberal economics. Enough said. It burns too many people, and the wealth that economic get by sweating everyone who toils and fleeces everyone who has any needs; the wealth never trickles down. 

2. Focus on entertainment. People need culture, but they do not need mindless entertainment. People are spending huge amounts of time on vapid pop music, video, and video games without learning anything or otherwise improving themselves. Maybe when the economic realities make luxuries rare (you might have to turn off the TV and computer monitor during an air raid) people will accept that reality. In the meantime -- bad habits are worthy of the cost of losing them.

3. Reliance upon corporate and governmental behemoths to solve all problems. Some problems cannot be solved during a 4T even if they are solved easily after its end.  Bureaucracy is incredibly unproductive, uncreative, and rigid. We will need to rediscover the desirability of small business as an economic solution instead of as something "silly".

4. Under-saving. Thrift is the ultimate source of all capital that does not come by forced sales of other people's assets or the brutal sweating of workers. I expect Americans to get saddled with mandatory savings plans that imply low yields and no easy access so that there will be cheap capital for investment.

People usually find that "every man for himself" ensures that almost everyone gets hurt badly. During a major war, armies and navies drill that ethos out of soldiers' and sailors' minds. Add to that, the giant corporations that produce huge quantities of materiel for the war insist upon highly-standardized procedures in manufacturing to fit rigid specifications. Donald Trump is the every-man-for-himself ethos in the extreme, as one might expect of a pathological narcissist.

[jleagans]

Hmm, here's a theory I pieced together that sounds like where this thread was going (at the start):

My theory argues that turnings start at actual TURNING point events, seemingly alternating between DARK turnings that usher in the turnings with darker national attitudes (2T and 4T) and GOOD turnings that have more optimistic national attitudes (1T and 3T).

4T=Dark=Stock Market Crash (1929)
1T=Good= End of WW2 (1945)
2T=Dark = JFK Assassination (1963
3T=Good= End of Stagflation (1982)
4T=Dark= 9/11 (2001)
1T=Good= Widespread Covid Vaccine Distribution (2021)

I still can't fully figure out the reconstruction/gilded age/progressive era turnings (ESPECIALLY the 1910's move to the 3T, so if anyone knows that era feel free to share )

[Eric the Green]

I could never get the idea that 9-11 started a 4T. It just didn't. It was a return to the status quo of the American constant war since 1941, although in the 1980s and 90s this constant war was reduced to support for other warriors like the Nicaraguan Contras and Saddam Hussein's attack on Iran, and the enormous Reagan military buildup and some short interventions. The war on terror started then too. It just ramped up after 9-11, but that was just business as usual, and a war that was out of sight and out of mind. Domestic participation in the war was reduced to "we'll show the terrorists; we'll keep on shopping!" Even the Patriot Act affected very few people severely here in the USA. Nor was this any kind of new foreign policy; it was continued American imperialism-- given a new boost, but not a boost that could be sustained. When it was extended to Iraq, it was discredited. So, why would anyone think that 9-11 was the start of a Crisis era?

The pattern I see in past cycles is quite different; 4Ts usually start with economic crises or meltdowns, like the Great Depression, and war comes later. Like the economic disputes before the Revolution, or the 1857 Panic before the Civil War. So, the 2008 Great Recession was a near-exact replay of 1929, with the same causes. Laissez-faire then, neo-liberalism now. If this 4T ends with war, it will come in 2025. And just like the war on terror began during the 3T, as far back as 1985, so world war I began during the 3T in 1914. World War two continued world war I. Terrorism may be back in 2025, now that the terrorists have been released and empowered this month. Speeding up the saeculum to make 2001 equal 1929, is to shorten the saeculum to 72 years, at a time when all evidence shows that progress, which had driven the modern saeculum, is slowing down almost to a crawl or reversing.

Progress??? In the USA?????



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvD0TgE34HA&t=1869s

[jleagans]

Yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree on 9/11. This may be a generational perspective difference. I viewed the national attitudes and zeitgeist as peaceful, happy, non-stressful, my entire life and then 9/11 started up a dark stressful era that we still aren't out of.

We lived in fear of another terrorist attack for years, then engaged in multiple major foreign wars. The 90's were the end of the cold war and people (fukuyama) actually speculated that we had reached the end of history.

9/11 showed us that Russia was not the last major antagonist America would face.

[galaxy]

(08-19-2021, 10:58 AM)jleagans Wrote: Hmm, here's a theory I pieced together that sounds like where this thread was going (at the start):

My theory argues that turnings start at actual TURNING point events, seemingly alternating between DARK turnings that usher in the turnings with darker national attitudes (2T and 4T) and GOOD turnings that have more optimistic national attitudes (1T and 3T).  

4T=Dark=Stock Market Crash (1929)
1T=Good= End of WW2 (1945)
2T=Dark = JFK Assassination (1963
3T=Good= End of Stagflation (1982)
4T=Dark= 9/11 (2001)
1T=Good= Widespread Covid Vaccine Distribution (2021)

I still can't fully figure out the reconstruction/gilded age/progressive era turnings (ESPECIALLY the 1910's move to the 3T, so if anyone knows that era feel free to share )

This is far too simple of a classification.

This is how national moods work (please excuse the messy MSPaint drawing):



The reason you feel that 9/11 was such a dark turn is because every major event during a 1T or 3T intensifies the progression in mood. The moods do not change "smoothly," they move in jumps. 9/11 was a big jump.
For another example, WW1, another "third-turning crisis," was followed by an increase of the cynicism and hedonism already present in that era to the extremely high level that the 1920s decade is famous for.
The most recent 1T seems to stand out for a notable lack of mood-intensifying events. I suppose Kennedy's election could count as one, sort of starting off the euphoric national mood of the 1960s decade (which peaked around 1967 to 1969 or so), but there really isn't much else. Perhaps 1Ts are a bit more gradual in general.

(it should also be noted that 4Ts are more complicated than this, but that's a topic for another thread)

[pbrower2a]

One possible explanation: those influenced by those who survived the last 4T are told some very clear lessons from the previous Crisis. I see images of the Nazi genocide, and those are seared into my consciousness even though I (born in 1955) obviously did not experience it for myself. GI's saw Nazi symbols as objects of derision, the Silent (just think of Mel Brooks) intensified loathing of Nazis, and we Boomers lapped it up. If something in any way resembled Nazism (like the KKK doing terror in the name of White Supremacy, the repressive apparatus enforcing Apartheid, the madness of the Khmer Rouge, or the militarism of Saddam Hussein) we knew enough to excoriate it.

Americans may have still been thinking of the Civil War as the definitive Crisis until at least the 1920's, but after the American Civil War few people saw the Civil War as the definitive crisis. To be sure, Franklin Delano Roosevelt coopted Lincoln-like rhetoric against the Nazis, and American administrations of POW camps holding German soldiers used Abraham Lincoln as the model for Germans to adopt as a hero in contrast to you-know-who.

All Crisis Eras are dissimilar in who the enemies are like. The Confederates were gentlemen in contrast to the Nazis, the latter even worse abusers of slaves. But so is the object. Germany, Italy, and Japan are not The Enemy this time, as the fascists that we American must deal with this time are people born and raised here; America is not going to splinter over slavery; and we obviously aren't seeking independence from a King who tries to micromanage life in "the Colonies". I can already predict the most likely focus of the next Crisis, the Crisis of 2100, and that will be the consequences (environmental ruin causing now-unimaginable dislocations -- unless one does the math as I can, and I can see no salubrious conclusion because I can do the math -- due to global warming), and that will make bungled responses to a respiratory plague in 2020 completely irrelevant.

A hint: Stalin's collectivization of Soviet agriculture was a sheer horror, with freehold farmers being obliged to become serfs of the Soviet state. But free farmers could survive as serfs on collective farms. "King Neptune" (an allusion to the Roman god of the seas) will expropriate land from hundreds of millions of peasant farmers worldwide and cause famines on a scale never known in human history -- and the largest number of victims will be the peasant farmers who won't even have serf-like roles on any collective farms.