Election 2020

[Eric the Green]

[Anthony '58]

Pennsylvania is crucial, even if it doesn't decide the election: See my "Another 'Split Up The Country' Book" thread and my comments on it.

With that in mind, it's Biden Or Bust for the Democrats.

[pbrower2a]

I don't know what state will be most critical. In 2020 it could be Iowa which, unlike Wisconsin, has a vulnerable incumbent Senator. The Senate matters almost as much as the Presidency. Almost -- unless the President is Donald Trump.

Trump will have to win the electoral votes of Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin the hard way because the Democratic governors in those states will be no help to Trump.

[Eric the Green]

Biden has made a couple of bad gaffes lately. We'll see if this depresses his numbers any. I think as long as he is competitive in Iowa and NH and finishes in the top 2 or 3 in those states, he'll likely be nominated. Meanwhile Sanders could be his biggest challenger from now on.

Democratic Presidential Nomination Dec. 31, 2019, Real Clear Politics, with horoscope scores and S&H generations:
Biden28.4 14-7 Silent
Sanders18.9 14-7 Silent
Warren15.2 8-7 Boomer
Buttigieg8.2 7-9 Millennial
Bloomberg4.9 7-5 Silent
Klobuchar3.6 7-7 Boomer
Yang3.5 8-15 Xer
Booker2.5 6-7 Xer
Gabbard1.7 11-6 Xer
Steyer1.4 11-7 Boomer
Castro1.2 8-13 Xer
Delaney0.6 7-5 Xer
Bennet0.4 8-9 Xer
Williamson0.3 13-14 Boomer

Biden +9.5

others:
Patrick 9-6 Boomer
Messam 15-8 Xer
Trump 9-4 Boomer

dropouts:
Kamala Harris 4-16 Xer
Beto O'Rourke 11-26 Xer
Kirsten Gillibrand 7-13 Xer
Bill DeBlazio 12-15 Xer
John Hickenlooper 6-12 Boomer
Steven Bullock 10-7 Xer
Seth Moulton 9-10 Xer
Tim Ryan 3-12 Xer
Eric Swalwell 4-6 Xer
Jay Inslee 3-7 Boomer
Mike Gravel 5-10 Silent
Joe Sestak 3-10 Boomer
Richard Ojeda 10-13 Xer
Mark Sanford 5-7 Boomer

[Bob Butler 54]

I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required. If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod. The threat of retaliation is gone. As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump. A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

[Eric the Green]

(12-31-2019, 06:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required.  If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod.  The threat of retaliation is gone.  As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump.  A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

Welcome back. Do you want to debate guns again? Just kidding.

That's a good idea; do you think Schumer has thought of that?

[pbrower2a]

(12-31-2019, 06:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required.  If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod.  The threat of retaliation is gone.  As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump.  A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

McConnell has real control on what the rules are so long as Republicans vote along Party lines. People will know who voted for rules that force a quick, partisan up-and-down vote that ensures a whitewash of the charges. Such will be remembered in Senate races in 2020. I predict a fix because I know the character of Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump all too well and recognize that current Republicans are moral cowards who expect ruthlessness to prevail.

[Bob Butler 54]

(01-01-2020, 05:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(12-31-2019, 06:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required.  If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod.  The threat of retaliation is gone.  As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump.  A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

McConnell has real control on what the rules are so long as Republicans vote along Party lines. People will know who voted for rules that force a quick, partisan up-and-down vote that ensures a whitewash of the charges. Such will be remembered in Senate races in 2020. I predict a fix because I know the character of Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump all too well and recognize that current Republicans are moral cowards who expect ruthlessness to prevail.

I just suspect the Republican senators will not like to be pushed into a corner, and will find a way to work around it if they are being taken advantage of. There are a few more possibilities here than are currently being considered.

[Eric the Green]

Add another candidate with a negative horoscope score to the list of dropouts. I was waiting for this one: Julian Castro (8-13).

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/julian-c...-race.html

Besides Andrew Yang, Castro was the candidate still in the race with the lowest score. Chalk up another one biting the dust as my horoscope scores predicted.

So how much longer can Michael Bennet hang in there? Probably not long.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

http://philosopherswheel.com/hna.html

Biden28.3
Sanders19.1
Warren15.1
Buttigieg8.3
Bloomberg4.8
Klobuchar3.5
Yang3.5
Booker2.5
Gabbard1.8
Steyer1.5
Castro1.2
Delaney0.5
Bennet0.4
Williamson0.2

Biden +9.2

[Classic-Xer]

(01-02-2020, 03:55 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(01-01-2020, 05:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(12-31-2019, 06:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required.  If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod.  The threat of retaliation is gone.  As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump.  A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

McConnell has real control on what the rules are so long as Republicans vote along Party lines. People will know who voted for rules that force a quick, partisan up-and-down vote that ensures a whitewash of the charges. Such will be remembered in Senate races in 2020. I predict a fix because I know the character of Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump all too well and recognize that current Republicans are moral cowards who expect ruthlessness to prevail.

I just suspect the Republican senators will not like to be pushed into a corner, and will find a way to work around it if they are being taken advantage of.  There are a few more possibilities here than are currently being considered.

Well, the Democrats have gotten themselves in a bit of a pickle and the Republicans have no reason to oblige or even be nice to them at this point. So, who makes the decisions for your leadership these days? Anyone with a brain or anyone who has an understanding of the values of middle America these days? Do you know any middle Americans who are into the idea of public courts of opinions being all that needed to convict or remove an elected from office or any who are really interested in mob rule these days. I understand that the liberal Democrats are more third world oriented and have become accustomed to getting what they want from insecure/ squeamish people/ politicians but the time for that has changed.

Personally, I think a secret vote and an abrupt would be more damaging to them and their credibility than turning it around and placing the liberal Democrats on trail. There is a reason why Pelosi is doing what she's doing right now. I mean, they would have to do so in a way that traditional Democratic voters understand that the issue is not with them or their portion of the Democratic party these days.

[pbrower2a]

(01-03-2020, 01:36 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(01-02-2020, 03:55 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(01-01-2020, 05:00 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(12-31-2019, 06:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required.  If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod.  The threat of retaliation is gone.  As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump.  A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

McConnell has real control on what the rules are so long as Republicans vote along Party lines. People will know who voted for rules that force a quick, partisan up-and-down vote that ensures a whitewash of the charges. Such will be remembered in Senate races in 2020. I predict a fix because I know the character of Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump all too well and recognize that current Republicans are moral cowards who expect ruthlessness to prevail.

I just suspect the Republican senators will not like to be pushed into a corner, and will find a way to work around it if they are being taken advantage of.  There are a few more possibilities here than are currently being considered.

Well, the Democrats have gotten themselves in a bit of a pickle and the Republicans have no reason to oblige or even be nice to them at this point. So, who makes the decisions for your leadership these days? Anyone with a brain or anyone who has an understanding of the values of middle America these days? Do you know any middle Americans who are into the idea of public courts of opinions being all that needed to convict or remove an elected from office or any who are really interested in mob rule these days. I understand that the liberal Democrats are more third world oriented and have become accustomed to getting what they want from insecure/ squeamish people/ politicians but the time for that has changed.

It certainly isn't the definitive city-slicker Donald Trump, is it? 

We did not elect Donald Trump to make great for only 2% of the People. Should Trump be convicted and removed, then it will be for some criminal misdeed. Impeachment moved swiftly in the House once Trump was shown to have held up military aid that Congress had already appropriated so that he could squeeze some partisan advantage out of a foreign leader. 

Quote:Personally, I think a secret vote and an abrupt (acquittal) would be more damaging to them and their credibility than turning it around and placing the liberal Democrats on trail. There is a reason why Pelosi is doing what she's doing right now.  I mean, they would have to do so in a way that traditional Democratic voters understand that the issue is not with them or their portion of the Democratic party these days.

Sorry, Classic X'er. A secret vote would make every Republican Senator look as if he were in on a fix. Turn the impeachment against the Democrats? Impossible. Trump is in the pickle and at this point he isn't getting out of it unless he resigns.

[Classic-Xer]

(01-03-2020, 04:24 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Sorry, Classic X'er. A secret vote would make every Republican Senator look as if he were in on a fix. Turn the impeachment against the Democrats? Impossible. Trump is in the pickle and at this point he isn't getting out of it unless he resigns.

Yep. That's what I said, a secret vote and an abrupt end would be nice and would be commonly viewed as a political gift for the liberal side. Hint... I don't think they're dumb enough to do it that way and I don't think the Republican base are dumb enough to allow them to do it that way either. If I were you, I'd prepare for the worst possible outcome at this point. I think the best outcome would be for Pelosi to look like a fool and keep it for herself as a trophy of sorts to commemorate her greatest accomplishment as a liberal woman/ liberal Democrat. It may not win any seats or save any seats but I think it's all that seems to needed to keep the liberals who seem to matter the most to survival of the Democratic party in office these days.

[pbrower2a]

(01-03-2020, 07:16 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(01-03-2020, 04:24 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Sorry, Classic X'er. A secret vote would make every Republican Senator look as if he were in on a fix. Turn the impeachment against the Democrats? Impossible. Trump is in the pickle and at this point he isn't getting out of it unless he resigns.

Yep. That's what I said, a secret vote and an abrupt end would be nice and would be commonly viewed as a political gift for the liberal side. Hint... I don't think they're dumb enough to do it that way and I don't think the Republican base are dumb enough to allow them to do it that way either. If I were you, I'd prepare for the worst possible outcome at this point. I think the best outcome would be for Pelosi to look like a fool and keep it for herself as a trophy of sorts to commemorate her greatest accomplishment as a liberal woman/ liberal Democrat. It may not win any seats or save any seats but I think  it's all that seems to needed to keep the liberals who seem to matter the most to survival of the Democratic party in office these days.

Or complete acquiescence with the President. Blunders first seduce; only the consequences show their wrongness. After the fact every critical analysis causes people to wonder what the blunderer was thinking. 

Nancy Pelosi is a shrewd operator with a chilly logic... maybe too chilly at times. But this time she has set a trap with plenty of entrances and plenty of seeming escapes that put the President and his cronies in even worse positions. Such is the antithesis of foolishness. She is the Dragon Lady in this scenario... and Trump already feels the hot breath. She stands to deliver the political equivalent of third-degree burns.

[Classic-Xer]

(01-03-2020, 08:03 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Or complete acquiescence with the President. Blunders first seduce; only the consequences show their wrongness. After the fact every critical analysis causes people to wonder what the blunderer was thinking. 

Nancy Pelosi is a shrewd operator with a chilly logic... maybe too chilly at times. But this time she has set a trap with plenty of entrances and plenty of seeming escapes that put the President and his cronies in even worse positions. Such is the antithesis of foolishness. She is the Dragon Lady in this scenario... and Trump already feels the hot breath. She stands to deliver the political equivalent of third-degree burns.

Honestly, I don't care if she holds on to the articles for a keep sake or wipes her ass with them or formally submits them to the Senate as expected.  As far as blunders, you should be able to recognize them by now because you've been seeing a lot of them being committed by those on your side lately. As far as Pelosi, she has never really impressed me. Sure, she can whip her own side into shape but that's not saying much as far as America goes.

[Classic-Xer]

(12-31-2019, 06:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required.  If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod.  The threat of retaliation is gone.  As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump.  A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

Keep in mind. A couple of Democratic Senate seats where won by Democratic candidates in red states when the Democratic party still had the benefit of doubt working for it like it still 2018 which it no longer has today after the recent House impeachment debacle.

[pbrower2a]

(01-04-2020, 12:20 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(12-31-2019, 06:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required.  If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod.  The threat of retaliation is gone.  As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump.  A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

Keep in mind. A couple of Democratic Senate seats where won by Democratic candidates in red states when the Democratic party still had the benefit of doubt working for it like it still 2018 which it no longer has today after the recent House impeachment debacle.

This is a no-win situation for Donald Trump. Even if he gets away without being impeached, the scandals that Senate Republicans let him get away with will stick. At best for him the disapproval numbers will revert to what they were before the scandal broke, and those numbers were hideous. Trump needs vindication. The House made a compelling case, and in the end the real impeachment process will be on November 3. The election, that is. Public perception will then matter far more than the balance of power in the US Senate at the time of the Senate trial. Trump has been drowning in horrid disapproval polls for about two years now.  

I see no debacle. If there were nothing, then the House would have stopped it had the case unraveled.   It just got worse... and worse... and worse.

[Bob Butler 54]

(01-04-2020, 12:59 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: It just got worse... and worse... and worse.

And trending.  To keep making the case more solid, all the Democrats need to do is wait.  The problem with that is Trups's attempt to distract by being an ever worse president.  How long will the Republicans trash the Republicans by letting him stay in power?

[David Horn]

(01-03-2020, 01:36 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Well, the Democrats have gotten themselves in a bit of a pickle and the Republicans have no reason to oblige or even be nice to them at this point. So, who makes the decisions for your leadership these days? Anyone with a brain or anyone who has an understanding of the values of middle America these days? Do you know any middle Americans who are into the idea of public courts of opinions being all that needed to convict or remove an elected from office or any who are really interested in mob rule these days. I understand that the liberal Democrats are more third world oriented and have become accustomed to getting what they want from insecure/ squeamish people/ politicians but the time for that has changed.

I was never a Clinton fan, but the GOP Attack Dog went after both of them relentlessly. I don't remember you ever showing the same lack of support for those efforts, and some, like Benghazi and Fast-and-Furious, were shown to be meritless, but both were put on heavy replay for months. BTW, were you in favor of convicting Bill, because the evidence available in the public sphere is already well past the point of conviction in a court of law.

Classic-Xer Wrote:Personally, I think a secret vote and an abrupt would be more damaging to them and their credibility than turning it around and placing the liberal Democrats on trail. There is a reason why Pelosi is doing what she's doing right now.  I mean, they would have to do so in a way that traditional Democratic voters understand that the issue is not with them or their portion of the Democratic party these days.

Most Democrats are solidly in-line with the impeachment process -- many wanted more and sooner. Independents may need some reassuring, but that applies to both sides of the argument.

[David Horn]

(01-04-2020, 03:07 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(01-04-2020, 12:59 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: It just got worse... and worse... and worse.

And trending.  To keep making the case more solid, all the Democrats need to do is wait.  The problem with that is Trups's attempt to distract by being an ever worse president.  How long will the Republicans trash the Republicans by letting him stay in power?

I can't see the Republicans walking away from Trump, until he becomes toxic in his own party.  He can have a zero percent support level outside the GOP, but  inside is all they see.

[pbrower2a]

(01-04-2020, 12:20 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(12-31-2019, 06:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I believe the Senate gets to vote on the rules of the trial, with 51% of the vote required.  If they decide on a secret vote, Trump is schrod.  The threat of retaliation is gone.  As is, a Republican cannot win a primary if he opposes Tump, but will not be able to win a general election if he supports Trump.  A secret vote would be one way to avoid that trap.

Keep in mind. A couple of Democratic Senate seats where won by Democratic candidates in red states when the Democratic party still had the benefit of doubt working for it like it still 2018 which it no longer has today after the recent House impeachment debacle.

The only two Democratic Senators running for re-election in 2020 in states that Donald Trump won are Doug Jones, who got elected under freakish circumstances unlikely to be replicated in Alabama, and Gary Peters, the only other freshman incumbent Democrat up for re-election in any state in 2020, and in a state that had gone for the Democratic nominee for President every year beginning in 1992. Others are in states that Hillary Clinton won. 

Doug Jones has little to lose by voting to remove the President. The only way in which he wins if is if he gets a re-match with Roy Moore, who probably cannot win the Alabama primary this time considering what a pompous a$$ he was the last time. Gary Peters would lose a primary challenge if he voted to keep Donald Trump. If I were a Republican I would be more concerned about Collins in Maine, Gardner in Colorado (both in states that voted against Trump), McSally in Arizona (got appointed after losing a Senate election), Tillis in North Carolina (approval polls are abysmal), Ernst in Iowa (Iowa is a legitimate swing state and a clean government state), and Georgia (Democrats have been getting closer every year, and two R seats are up, one by an early retirement).  

Michigan increasingly looks like a freak win for Trump in 2016 on about the scale that Indiana was a freak win for Obama in 2008. All but one poll that I have seen, and that one looks as if it is contaminated with the results of a poll connected by a right-wing political journal, show Trump losing Michigan decisively. 

I recognize that you consider Donald Trump so wonderful that he should win a landslide with promises of imposing a new feudalism in America... but you don't even know your own state well for its political attitudes.  Minnesota was close to going for Trump in 2016; it is not now. 

If I were a Republican I would not brush off the 2018 midterm election so easily. Democrats won absolute majorities of House votes in a midterm election in states that have 284 electoral votes and an unambiguous plurality in another state (Arizona) with eleven electoral votes. I see that for now as a floor for any Democratic nominee for President. Add to that -- Trump is underwater in approval in four electorally-large states (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio) with 78 electoral votes. I see him winning all of those or losing all of them. Then there is Texas, which looks iffy.

Republicans usually do better in midterm elections than in others. If I see any analogue to 2018 as a midterm, then it is to 2006, a portent of the near-landslide by Barack Obama. The tea Party voters who haven't died off are still there, but their numbers are not increasing. Millennial voters, about 60-40 D are replacing older voters on the whole about 52-47 R in the usual turnover of old and young voters by about 1.5% a year. 

Trump may be solidifying his base, but he is offending everyone else. It may not matter that those who never voted for him and never would are becoming even more intense in their contempt for him, and that such will not hurt him more in the 2020 election. It's what is in between that matters.  A hint: Goldwater and McGovern both had enthusiastic bases.