Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

I'd rather spend $19 a month on dog food and have an awesome companion. Polar bears will not go extinct; the Tigers of the Arctic will be popular in zoos should Greenland become like what Iceland is now.

As for conservatism -- we liberals are much less erratic than Trump, much less demagogic, and much more loyal to this country and what it has long stood for. Oddly, when Donald Trump shows his disdain for traditions that most Americans take for granted, we are still here and we are a default. Trump has shown where his loyalties are: his vanity and his self image. We have learned the hard way that despite economic advances and cultural additions, human nature has changed little from what Socrates knew.

Trump is showing us through his failures as a person the necessity of human kindness, cool-headed reasoning, and loyalty to benign institutions. In him we see much that is wrong with America. The Seven Deadly Sins (anger, lust, gluttony, envy, sloth, incontinence, and vainglory) may have treatments that make them less deadly, but they all degrade life and make it more precarious. Within sloth is intellectual laziness.

[Bob Butler 54]

(01-07-2020, 03:22 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 03:01 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: A so called cold civil war seems to say no regeneracy, no crisis war, and transformation by legislature.  This would not be a typical Industrial Age S&H pattern.

Well, we're in the Information Age now, right? (and greenpeace age)

Welcome to the new style 4T.

Yep. I have long looked at history through 3 filters; turnings, ages and civilizations. Some trends.

As ages are different, the details of the turnings are suspect. While some trends observed during a given age will hold in the next, it is best to confirm the trend as the age changes. A healthy dose of skepticism is required. The notable set of changes is that the S&H trends observed primarily in the Industrial Age do not necessarily hold in the Information Age.

The length of the typical Industrial Age is a few centuries, which is about the duration of the typical Industrial Age. It is common for the Industrial Age transition to take as long as the age, to switch from kings to legislatures, to switch from slavery and serfdom to land owned by the elites, to switch from military landowners to robber barons. By the time all these transitions are complete, the Information Age is already there.

The form of the transition changes among civilizations. The West had revolutions and civil wars. Eastern Europe and Asia had fascism and communism. The Middle East is going straight from Agricultural Age hereditary and religious values to something modern, and is just beginning their transition. They are trying to reject the values adapted by the West and stay with an Agricultural Age religious set of values. The common trend is that no matter where the transition occurs it is ugly, though the nature of how things get ugly changes.

While civilizations transitioning after the West can try to copy what works best, they are at a disadvantage in that the West is ahead of them in many ways. It does not help to end up colonized, to have resources stolen, to have sets of western values discredited. The West is often about expanding the influence and power of their elites, not about spreading their ideals.

The Information Age is beginning with various civilizations already in transition. Many civilizations are still autocratic. A few are still religious. While it may be possible to guess at Information Age patterns, it is far too early to say the guessed at Information Age patterns are predictable and inevitable.

[pbrower2a]

(01-07-2020, 02:43 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 03:22 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 03:01 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: A so called cold civil war seems to say no regeneracy, no crisis war, and transformation by legislature.  This would not be a typical Industrial Age S&H pattern.

Well, we're in the Information Age now, right? (and greenpeace age)

Welcome to the new style 4T.

Yep.  I have long looked at history through 3 filters; turnings, ages and civilizations.  Some trends.

As ages are different, the details of the turnings are suspect.  While some trends observed during a given age will hold in the next, it is best to confirm the trend as the age changes.  A healthy dose of skepticism is required.  The notable set of changes is that the S&H trends observed primarily in the Industrial Age do not necessarily hold in the Information Age.

The length of the typical Industrial Age is a few centuries, which is about the duration of the typical Industrial Age.  It is common for the Industrial Age transition to take as long as the age, to switch from kings to legislatures, to switch from slavery and serfdom to land owned by the elites, to switch from military landowners to robber barons.  By the time all these transitions are complete, the Information Age is already there.

The form of the transition changes among civilizations.  The West had revolutions and civil wars.  Eastern Europe and Asia had fascism and communism.  The Middle East is going straight from Agricultural Age hereditary and religious values to something modern, and is just beginning their transition.  They are trying to reject the values adapted by the West and stay with an Agricultural Age religious set of values.  The common trend is that no matter where the transition occurs it is ugly, though the nature of how things get ugly changes.

While civilizations transitioning after the West can try to copy what works best, they are at a disadvantage in that the West is ahead of them in many ways.  It does not help to end up colonized, to have resources stolen, to have sets of western values discredited.  The West is often about expanding the influence and power of their elites, not about spreading their ideals.

The Information Age is beginning with various civilizations already in transition.  Many civilizations are still autocratic.  A few are still religious.  While it may be possible to guess at Information Age patterns, it is far too early to say the guessed at Information Age patterns are predictable and inevitable.

Turnings are roughly the time necessary for people to grow up from  birth, get early definition from the norms of child-rearing, complete the normal education, get jobs, define themselves culturally against earlier generations, start siring and bearing their own children, and start participating in the political life. 

So in the first 20-25 years the first generation starts being born, being raised as children, encountering mass culture directed at children, attending elementary school, attending junior high, joining child organizations and in turn adolescent organizations (depending on the society, Scouting, Job's daughters or the Order of DeMolay, FFA, 4-H, Boys' Clubs or Girls' Clubs, Young Pioneers or Komsomols [in 'socialist' countries]). perhaps undergo some ceremonial early bridge to adulthood (Bar Mitzvah, Quinceanera, debutante ball) or (gulk!) an initiation ceremony into a criminal gang... enter high-school, get an apprenticeship, do something characteristic of adults (start driving, get a job, smoke or drink [not all transitions are good], or vote. One may attend college and take on part-time work... or join the work-force seriously. One may be obliged to do some military service. Toward the end of that time, some kids start creating culture such as pop music, poetry, dramatic performances, or art either commercial or for its own sake. 

After that time ends, the first generation often marries and has children... and childhood had better be over. Adult roles are necessary. Class identity often forms quickly and is often set for life. So often do attitudes and political values. Some young people start professional practices or other businesses. The first generation starts becoming adults, and one after another phase of childhood fades out in that generation. 

In a fairly wide-open economy like America until from about 1935 to about 1980, career advancement is possible.  In a more rigid, class-oriented economy like America after about 1980, career advancement depends largely upon what family one is born into... young adults define themselves largely by culture and possessions, and perhaps identity. Certain opportunities such as athletics are available only to young adults; certain opportunities such as the professions imply greater responsibilities with age. Around age 45 many adults are becoming grandparents.   Around 60 to 70 people are retiring or taking ceremonial roles in life.

The life-cycle is predictable. The elderly who have vital roles have usually reached advanced age, whether Socrates, Merlin, Bismarck, or Mao. The poor? They are the first to die in epidemics and famines, or in more recent times simply give up in a medical crisis. Life can be very good for the old and rich in America until the bodies give out. For the elderly poor -- life just gets harder, and the struggle gets emptier.

The saeculum is typically 80-100 years, depending upon how quickly history moves.  Youth culture seems to change abruptly at the end of each each turning, and that usually shapes generations even if a war doesn't. We have few influential centenarians or even nonagenarians -- and we don't have anyone more than 120 years old. Influence from beyond the grave? Sure. But people adapt Shakespeare's plays or Bach's music as they see fit.  



       

I didn't say that you had to like it. If I were to re-write Romeo and Juliet, I would put it in the context of the range wars (Oklahoma! came close to doing that... maybe I would call it "Montana!") between farmers and ranchers. 

I find Toynbee's A Study of History interesting for a really-long-term view. As prediction... Toynbee sees stages of history with a civilization as a unit. Civilization begins with pioneers who do certain things well, win wars against the ill-prepared stuck in old ways, and get imitated. People join. Eventually the civilization loses its creativity except in repression and militarism, with the penultimate stage in the geographically-impressive,  but thoroughly-rotten and unimaginative Universal State.  Think of the Roman Empire in its final stage -- with a fossilized existence, no creativity, no innovation, no economic progress, and all in all, much rot underneath an impressive facade. 

The West has never had the dubious reality of the Universal State... not that there have not been efforts to impose one beginning with the Spanish Empire (the Armada calamity prevented that) through the demonic Third Reich. Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Stalin made their bids... and failed. The British chose to expand an empire outside of their immediate neighborhood, and the United States made an abortive bid by annexing some island possessions (Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines) around 1900 -- but Manifest Destiny ended in 1853 with the Gadsden Purchase (for the path of a railway) or the purchase of Russian America (Alaska) in 1867... Russia was selling and would have sold to someone else, and figured that the USA was the least troublesome buyer. 

Give America a fascist regime, and guess what 'we' do. Maybe we run afoul of other countries and find such an enterprise ending in a national disaster and shame.

...If Donald Trump is not a full-blown fascist he is a portent of what can go really, really wrong. Let us just hope that we do not go the other direction for a left-wing demagogue as compensation.  

Mister, we could use a man like Herbert Hoover Eisenhower again!

[Marypoza]

__ Eric i have been thinking. Considering Pluto is back in Capricorn, wouldn't this 4T resemble the Revolution Cycle more than the Civil War Cycle?
Also, while y'all are on here discussing the finer points of impeachment & the current 4T, the Donald just assassinated an Iranian general who was on his way to a peace negotiation. How do y'all think that will affect this 4T?

[Eric the Green]

Good variation on the tune brower!

Good news! The only two candidates who have a chance to beat Trump according to the all-important horoscope scores are pulling ahead, and Sanders has crossed over the 20 point mark for the first time since Biden entered the race. Those in the top tier who can't win, Warren and Buttigieg, are continuing to slowly lose ground. The people are, at least for now, perceiving the candidates as they are. Whether Buttigieg is in the top tier or not now seems unclear, although he's still near the top in IA and NH, which is important. Those with fairly above-average appeal and skill and the scores to match, (but still inadequate), Steyer and Gabbard, are rising among the second tier. Negative-scoring Bennet and Booker are falling off the cliff and will be out soon. All of the over a dozen candidates who have dropped out so far except one have a negative score.

Fortunately brower, there is no left-wing demagogue running for president, and there never could be one that would gain any traction. Sanders is on the Left, but he is smart, well-informed, honest, energetic, eloquent and principled. He says what he means and means what he says, and what he says and means are right. That is attractive to voters! Sanders says and knows he would not be a dictator, unlike the would-be dictator who now occupies the Oval Office. He would not get everything he wants. Maybe some of what he wants is impractical, and maybe it isn't, but he will move the ball forward for the first time in 40 years! Assuming (as I think) that congress will go left too and stay left for the 4T duration. What a contrast between good and competent, and bad and unfit, Sanders would portray compared to Trump!

Democratic Presidential Nomination, real clear politics average Jan 7, 2020, with horoscope scores:
Biden29.7 14-7
Sanders20.2 14-7
Warren14.2 8-7
Buttigieg7.7 7-9
Bloomberg5.8 7-5
Yang3.5 8-15
Klobuchar3.0 7-7
Gabbard2.3 11-6
Steyer2.2 11-7
Booker2.0 6-7
Delaney0.8 7-5
Williamson0.3 13-14
Bennet0.2 8-9

Biden +9.5

[Eric the Green]

(01-07-2020, 06:41 PM)Marypoza Wrote: __ Eric i have been thinking. Considering Pluto is back in Capricorn, wouldn't this 4T resemble the Revolution Cycle more than the Civil War Cycle?
Also, while y'all are on here discussing the finer points of impeachment & the current 4T, the Donald just assassinated an Iranian general who was on his way to a peace negotiation. How do y'all think that will affect this 4T?

That's perceptive, Marypoza. The Revolution comes into play, indeed. But so does the Civil War, still, because this 4T is the Return of Neptune to its place at that time, which is also the half return of the cycle. This double return is now just 2 years away!

This assassination by Trump is just one more nail in the coffin of The Donald's crew. Even Rush Limbaugh was criticizing it. I never thought I would ever hear a word out of his mouth I agreed with!

Fortunately I don't think we're going to war now. The cycle doesn't come around until about 2025. Then we get a double whammy.

[pbrower2a]

As if Oklahoma offered any question of how it stands for the 2020  Presidential election: it would go to him even in a loss analogous to those of Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980. It is from early December, but nobody can argue in principle against an unknown pollster about a state that leaves few political questions unanswered.   



Trump has much more of a chance to lose Kansas than Oklahoma. Oklahoma could be his strongest state, and it could be the only one in which he gets 60% of the popular vote. 



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

If you wonder why I cut off the President's chances of getting re-elected at 52% disapproval, it is because Obama never won any state in 2012 that a reputable pollster had his disapproval above 51% at any time. Obama barely won Ohio after having had his approval get to 51% in a Quinnipiac poll.  It is practically impossible to do disapproval once it sets in.  One can win with 48% of the popular vote in the state if such is a plurality, which is iffy... I see President Trump no more effective a campaigner than Obama, which is charitable on my part toward Trump. 

The first poll of any state strictly from 2020 is of New Mexico, and it should be no surprise that Trump has practically no chance of carrying the state in 2020.

Quote:New Mexico: Emerson, Jan. 3-6, 967 RV

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Sanders 59, Trump 41
Buttigieg 55, Trump 45
Biden 54, Trump 46
Warren 54, Trump 46

This is the first statewide poll that I see from 2020, and it is of a state that rarely gets polled (New Mexico). It is almost a month newer than the poll from early December involving Oklahoma. If there is no reasonable doubt that Trump cannot lose Oklahoma, there is far more doubt by that standard that Trump is sure to lose new Mexico. On the fringe of contention in 2016, it won't be close. At this stage, an incumbent does not win re-election when his disapproval is above 51%.   



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54% 
55% or higher

Does anyone have any question that with approval under 40% and disapproval at 54%, Trump is not going to win the Land of Enchantment? 

Nationwide: 

Quote:Ipsos Core Political Data, Jan. 6-7, 1115 adults.  This is usually weekly, but they skipped the last two weeks for the holidays.  

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+2)

Effectively an anticlimax. No meaningful change -- except in the "strongly approve", which at -3 is close to the margin of error. There were no shocking events over the Holiday season (this poll comes from before  the strike on the Iranian general of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, and especially before the President threatened to destroy 52 cultural sites in Iran. A comment: should the vile regime of the ayatollahs disappear, Iran will be an attractive place for tourists with an interest in antiquities to be found nowhere else on Earth; it will be as if a country like Greece "opened up" to share its glorious heritage).  

As low as "strongly approve" was, a 3% drop in the absolute number is about 12% in the category. This suggests that the core support of Donald Trump is eroding.

[Eric the Green]

NM is out of reach for the Drump. But Arizona and Wisconsin are the states to watch.

[Marypoza]

(01-07-2020, 06:57 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 06:41 PM)Marypoza Wrote: __ Eric i have been thinking. Considering Pluto is back in Capricorn, wouldn't this 4T resemble the Revolution Cycle more than the Civil War Cycle?
Also, while y'all are on here discussing the finer points of impeachment & the current 4T, the Donald just assassinated an Iranian general who was on his way to a peace negotiation. How do y'all think that will affect this 4T?

That's perceptive, Marypoza. The Revolution comes into play, indeed. But so does the Civil War, still, because this 4T is the Return of Neptune to its place at that time, which is also the half return of the cycle. This double return is now just 2 years away!

This assassination by Trump is just one more nail in the coffin of The Donald's crew. Even Rush Limbaugh was criticizing it. I never thought I would ever hear a word out of his mouth I agreed with!

Fortunately I don't think we're going to war now. The cycle doesn't come around until about 2025. Then we get a double whammy.

-- gawd l hope not! no mo wars plz!

l had not considered Neptune. l also did not realize that it entered Aries the same day Ft Sumpter was fired on. Neptune is the planet of delusion & there are alot of stoopid ppl running around loose right now

[Eric the Green]

(01-10-2020, 04:08 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 06:57 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 06:41 PM)Marypoza Wrote: __ Eric i have been thinking. Considering Pluto is back in Capricorn, wouldn't this 4T resemble the Revolution Cycle more than the Civil War Cycle?
Also, while y'all are on here discussing the finer points of impeachment & the current 4T, the Donald just assassinated an Iranian general who was on his way to a peace negotiation. How do y'all think that will affect this 4T?

That's perceptive, Marypoza. The Revolution comes into play, indeed. But so does the Civil War, still, because this 4T is the Return of Neptune to its place at that time, which is also the half return of the cycle. This double return is now just 2 years away!

This assassination by Trump is just one more nail in the coffin of The Donald's crew. Even Rush Limbaugh was criticizing it. I never thought I would ever hear a word out of his mouth I agreed with!

Fortunately I don't think we're going to war now. The cycle doesn't come around until about 2025. Then we get a double whammy.

-- gawd l hope not! no mo wars plz!

l had not considered Neptune. l also did not realize that it entered Aries the same day Ft Sumpter was fired on. Neptune is the planet of delusion & there are alot of stoopid ppl running around loose right now

Neptune is delusion, but in real essence is dreamy idealism. Remember this is the Uranus Return too, which as you know = the climax of the 4T in the modern saeculum/turning cycle. I look forward to the nation coming to life and revving up the engines of progress in the 2020s. See my other post about all the signs indicating progress for the 2020s. If Bernie wins, that will guarantee this. Neptune in Aries will indicate a step in that revving up, even though if we do not transcend our past behavior and have not fully created a new way of life, it was also the sign of the civil war in 1861, and could be again. This time around, the Jupiter war cycle also comes into play. 4Ts have a record of big wars happening. What we do with these cycles is up to us. But I have forecast important US wars 3 times now since I have been watching this Jupiter cycle coming around. We may face civil war and foreign war at once, just like the French Revolutionaries did in 1792-93.

[Anthony '58]

These projections don't mean a gosh-darn thing until we know who the Democratic nominee is.

If it's Biden, the Democrats take back those machismo Rust Belt states that refused to vote for a woman in 2016 and decided the election in Trump's favor.  Biden is also likely to carry Arizona, which will be more than one-third Hispanic (most of whom are Catholic, as is Biden) come Election Day.

If it's anyone else, it will be a redux of 1972 and 1984, because scores of millions of people simply won't vote for a non-Christian (in the South, including the border states of Delaware, Maryland, New Mexico and Arizona) or a non-Aryan (in the Midwest).

This is why I'm ridin' with Biden - and will either be voting third party in November if he doesn't get the Democratic nomination, or maybe even sitting home and doing what Billy Joel mentioned in Captain Jack, that I won't even repeat here.

[pbrower2a]

If America could vote for a man with an African Muslim father for President, then think what else it can vote for.

[Anthony '58]

(01-11-2020, 11:40 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If America could vote for a man with an African Muslim father for President, then think what else it can vote for.

But this country has gotten a thousand times more polarized since 2008 - and barring an absolute economic meltdown in the next ten months. we will be at an economic summer solstice on Election Day, whereas in 2008 we were approaching an economic winter solstice (which actually occurred a year later with the 10.2% unemployment rate of October of 2009).

[pbrower2a]

(01-11-2020, 04:38 PM)Anthony Wrote:

(01-11-2020, 11:40 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If America could vote for a man with an African Muslim father for President, then think what else it can vote for.

But this country has gotten a thousand times more polarized since 2008 - and barring an absolute economic meltdown in the next ten months. we will be at an economic summer solstice on Election Day, whereas in 2008 we were approaching an economic winter solstice (which actually occurred a year later with the 10.2% unemployment rate of October of 2009).

The economy is great if one is super-rich, but for everyone else... it is awful. We have an extreme disparity of wealth and poverty. What passes as the middle class by occupation (if young) is heavily in debt. Where the economy is booming the people who make money as employees are paying exorbitant rent. In much of America, the local economy is in full-blown depression. 

We avoided a full-blown three-year economic meltdown of the style of 1929-1932 by rescuing the banks and in turn Corporate America -- but Corporate America found that it recovered first and could buy the political system.  That it did in 2010 and the process culminated in the election of Donald Trump. To be sure, Trump is not a perfect conservative; he has simply pitted the proletariat against the intelligentsia in a conflict that the Master Class alone can win. People are often working two jobs just to survive, which demonstrates how inequitable the economic order is. The Master Class acts precisely as a Marxist stereotypes it for rapaciousness, cruelty, and irresponsibility. 

I contrast the last Crisis to the one that we have. If Obama had many characteristics of FDR, he did not get the chance to force pervasive reforms of the American economy. Corporate America might have been unable to knock him out of the Presidency, but it was able to take over most of America and establish a pure plutocracy. In 2016 it got to impose an absolute plutocracy.

Except -- Donald Trump is an atrocious person, a person with none of the virtues necessary for getting a country out of a Crisis Era. He is ruthless, corrupt, and abrasive.  If he is building any consensus it is of his inadequacy as a leader.

[ResidentArtist]

Marianne Williamson suspended her campaign yesterday. Never had much traction to begin with but she was an enjoyable presence in the debates.

[pbrower2a]

One recent topic: handling of Iran and Iraq:







https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority...d=68219819

[Marypoza]

(01-10-2020, 08:15 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-10-2020, 04:08 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 06:57 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-07-2020, 06:41 PM)Marypoza Wrote: __ Eric i have been thinking. Considering Pluto is back in Capricorn, wouldn't this 4T resemble the Revolution Cycle more than the Civil War Cycle?
Also, while y'all are on here discussing the finer points of impeachment & the current 4T, the Donald just assassinated an Iranian general who was on his way to a peace negotiation. How do y'all think that will affect this 4T?

That's perceptive, Marypoza. The Revolution comes into play, indeed. But so does the Civil War, still, because this 4T is the Return of Neptune to its place at that time, which is also the half return of the cycle. This double return is now just 2 years away!

This assassination by Trump is just one more nail in the coffin of The Donald's crew. Even Rush Limbaugh was criticizing it. I never thought I would ever hear a word out of his mouth I agreed with!

Fortunately I don't think we're going to war now. The cycle doesn't come around until about 2025. Then we get a double whammy.

-- gawd l hope not! no mo wars plz!

l had not considered Neptune. l also did not realize that it entered Aries the same day Ft Sumpter was fired on. Neptune is the planet of delusion & there are alot of stoopid ppl running around loose right now

Neptune is delusion, but in real essence is dreamy idealism. Remember this is the Uranus Return too, which as you know = the climax of the 4T in the modern saeculum/turning cycle. I look forward to the nation coming to life and revving up the engines of progress in the 2020s. See my other post about all the signs indicating progress for the 2020s. If Bernie wins, that will guarantee this. Neptune in Aries will indicate a step in that revving up, even though if we do not transcend our past behavior and have not fully created a new way of life, it was also the sign of the civil war in 1861, and could be again. This time around, the Jupiter war cycle also comes into play. 4Ts have a record of big wars happening. What we do with these cycles is up to us. But I have forecast important US wars 3 times now since I have been watching this Jupiter cycle coming around. We may face civil war and foreign war at once, just like the French Revolutionaries did in 1792-93.

-- where will Mars b in relation 2 these wars?

[Marypoza]

(01-11-2020, 10:42 AM)Anthony Wrote: These projections don't mean a gosh-darn thing until we know who the Democratic nominee is.

If it's Biden, the Democrats take back those machismo Rust Belt states that refused to vote for a woman in 2016 and decided the election in Trump's favor.  Biden is also likely to carry Arizona, which will be more than one-third Hispanic (most of whom are Catholic, as is Biden) come Election Day.

If it's anyone else, it will be a redux of 1972 and 1984, because scores of millions of people simply won't vote for a non-Christian (in the South, including the border states of Delaware, Maryland, New Mexico and Arizona) or a non-Aryan (in the Midwest).

This is why I'm ridin' with Biden - and will either be voting third party in November if he doesn't get the Democratic nomination, or maybe even sitting home and doing what Billy Joel mentioned in Captain Jack, that I won't even repeat here.

-- all the Donald has 2 do is say 1 word- Ukraine- & he will over & over & over again. Like a hammer. Groper Joe, assuming he don't implode his campaign & actually makes it 2 the Convention- will be toast

[David Horn]

(01-12-2020, 03:56 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(01-11-2020, 10:42 AM)Anthony Wrote: These projections don't mean a gosh-darn thing until we know who the Democratic nominee is.

... This is why I'm ridin' with Biden - and will either be voting third party in November if he doesn't get the Democratic nomination, or maybe even sitting home and doing what Billy Joel mentioned in Captain Jack, that I won't even repeat here.

-- all the Donald has 2 do is say 1 word- Ukraine- & he will over & over & over again. Like a hammer. Groper Joe, assuming he don't implode his campaign & actually makes it 2 the Convention- will be toast

The whole groping thing can't work for the Donald, since he's done much worse himself, and the Ukraine argument won't hold either. If Biden gets the nod and loses the general, it will be his bumbling and the failure to attack Trump in as nasty terms as Trump attacks him. That seems totally feasible to me.

And mea culpa: I had Bernie written off after his heart attack, but that seems to have been ignored by the voting public. He's looking incredibly strong, and may get the nod this time. If so, he'll be better positioned to win with a really strong VP choice. After all, he'll be the oldest candidate to ever run for the job. He will need a VP who looks as Presidential as he does, so the faint-of-heart won't get the vapors.

[Eric the Green]

(01-11-2020, 10:33 PM)ResidentArtist Wrote: Marianne Williamson suspended her campaign yesterday. Never had much traction to begin with but she was an enjoyable presence in the debates.

Yes indeed, and Booker dropped out today. Two more candidates with negative scores have dropped out! That leaves only Yang, Bennet and Buttigieg. Warren seems to be recovering a bit. 

Democratic Presidential Nomination

• Biden 28.3  horoscope score 14-7
  
• Sanders 19.8 score 14-7
  
• Warren 16.0 8-7
  
• Buttigieg 7.5 7-9
  
• Bloomberg 5.8 7-5
  
• Yang 3.8 8-15
  
• Klobuchar 3.0 7-7
  
• Steyer 2.3 11-7
  
• Gabbard 1.8 11-6
  
• Booker 1.5 6-7 dropped out
  
• Bennet 0.7 8-9
  
• Delaney 0.5 7-5
  
• Williamson 0.3 13-14 dropped out
  

Biden +8.5