Election 2020

[Marypoza]

(02-08-2020, 04:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Saturday, February 8
Race/Topic   Poll Results Spread
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary CNN/UNH Sanders 28, Buttigieg 21, Biden 11, Warren 9, Klobuchar 5, Gabbard 6, Yang 3, Steyer 3 Sanders +7
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Globe/Suffolk Sanders 24, Buttigieg 25, Biden 11, Warren 14, Klobuchar 6, Gabbard 2, Yang 3, Steyer 2 Buttigieg +1
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary WHDH/Emerson Sanders 31, Buttigieg 24, Biden 11, Warren 11, Klobuchar 9, Gabbard 5, Yang 3, Steyer 2 Sanders +7

Friday, February 7

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary NBC News/Marist Sanders 25, Buttigieg 21, Biden 13, Warren 14, Klobuchar 8, Gabbard 3, Yang 4, Steyer 4 Sanders +4
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Globe/Suffolk Sanders 24, Buttigieg 23, Biden 11, Warren 13, Klobuchar 6, Gabbard 4, Yang 3, Steyer 3 Sanders +1
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary WHDH/Emerson Sanders 32, Buttigieg 23, Biden 11, Warren 13, Klobuchar 9, Gabbard 6, Yang 2, Steyer 2 Sanders +9

Thursday, February 6

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Monmouth Sanders 24, Buttigieg 20, Biden 17, Warren 13, Klobuchar 9, Gabbard 4, Yang 4, Steyer 3 Sanders +4
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Globe/Suffolk Sanders 25, Buttigieg 19, Biden 12, Warren 11, Klobuchar 6, Gabbard 5, Yang 2, Steyer 4 Sanders +6
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary WHDH/Emerson Sanders 31, Buttigieg 21, Biden 12, Warren 12, Klobuchar 11, Gabbard 5, Yang 5, Steyer 1 Sanders +10

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Biden27.0
Sanders21.8
Warren14.4
Bloomberg10.6
Buttigieg7.0
Klobuchar4.0
Yang3.6
Steyer2.2

Biden +5.2

-- well Bernie rocked it last nite.
& Amy spanked Buttcheat again. I'm starting 2 sorta like her. 
But not 4 Prez. .

Sorry David but l can't resist l hate that weasley cheating pos

[Eric the Green]

Monday, February 10

Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Biden 17, Sanders 25, Warren 14, Bloomberg 15, Buttigieg 10, Klobuchar 4, Yang 2, Gabbard 1, Steyer 1, Bennet 0, Patrick 0 Sanders +8

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary CNN/UNH Sanders 29, Buttigieg 22, Klobuchar 7, Warren 10, Biden 11, Yang 4, Gabbard 5, Steyer 1, Patrick, Bennet 0 Sanders +7

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Globe/Suffolk Sanders 27, Buttigieg 19, Klobuchar 14, Warren 12, Biden 12, Yang 3, Gabbard 3, Steyer 2, Patrick 1, Bennet 0 Sanders +8

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary WHDH/Emerson Sanders 30, Buttigieg 23, Klobuchar 14, Warren 11, Biden 10, Yang 4, Gabbard 2, Steyer 2, Patrick 1, Bennet 1 Sanders +7

New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary UMass Lowell Sanders 25, Buttigieg 17, Klobuchar 8, Warren 15, Biden 14, Yang 3, Gabbard 4, Steyer 5, Patrick 1, Bennet 1 Sanders +8

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac poll, post-impeachment:

Quote:Among all registered voters, Democratic candidates lead President Trump in general election matchups by between 4 and 9 percentage points, with Bloomberg claiming the biggest numerical lead against Trump:
Bloomberg tops Trump 51 - 42 percent;
Sanders defeats Trump 51 - 43 percent;
Biden beats Trump 50 - 43 percent;
Klobuchar defeats Trump 49 - 43 percent;
Warren wins narrowly over Trump 48 - 44 percent;
Buttigieg is also slightly ahead of Trump 47 - 43 percent.

On approval:

Quote:Less than a week after President Trump was acquitted in the Senate impeachment trial and delivered his State of the Union address, the president's job approval continues to match his highest approval number, with 43 percent of voters saying they approve of the job President Trump is doing and 53 percent saying they disapprove. This remains essentially unchanged since mid-December 2019. Broken down along party lines, Republicans approve 89 - 9 percent, Democrats disapprove 94 - 4 percent, and independents are split with 46 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving.

Looking at how President Trump compares to his two predecessors at the same point in their re-election years, voters gave President Obama a slightly negative 45 - 49 percent job approval rating in February of 2012, and President Bush a slightly positive 48 - 45 percent job approval rating in February of 2004. Unlike President Trump, though, both presidents had hit higher approval ratings in their previous years in office. President Obama had hit a high of 59 percent approval in 2009, and President Bush received a high of 83 percent approval in 2001.


"Fresh from acquittal by the Senate, feistily throwing haymakers in every direction, the president presumably has a strong economy to ride all the way to Election Day. The Democrats are facing a reinvigorated and formidable Trump," added Malloy.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-det...aseID=3655

Trump is evidently in a far weaker position than was Obama in 2012 or Dubya in 2004. The only good thing that one can say is that he has not slid from a stronger position; polling of President Trump has been remarkably stable... and, for an incumbent President, inadequate for getting re-elected so far. 53% disapproval is really awful. 

Statewide polls will tell whether Trump can win with a percentage of the popular vote even lower than the 45.62% that Mike Dukakis got in 1988. (Dukakis got only 111 electoral votes in 1988, but it is hard to see how Trump could under-perform that.

[David Horn]

Anyone who think (s)he can accurately handicap the New Hampshire primary should review the history of the contest. It tends to be a monkey-wrench election, where the unpredictable happens as often as not. One thing for sure: Biden needs to finish strong or he'll never make it to his supposed firewall in South Carolina. Beyond that, I offer no predictions.

[Eric the Green]

(02-10-2020, 03:21 PM)David Horn Wrote: Anyone who think (s)he can accurately handicap the New Hampshire primary should review the history of the contest.  It tends to be a monkey-wrench election, where the unpredictable happens as often as not.  One thing for sure: Biden needs to finish strong or he'll never make it to his supposed firewall in South Carolina.  Beyond that, I offer no predictions.

You were right on Hillary, and you may be right on Biden.

[Eric the Green]

Democratic Presidential Nomination Feb.11
Sanders23.0
Biden20.4
Bloomberg13.6
Warren13.0
Buttigieg10.4
Klobuchar4.4
Yang3.2
Steyer2.0

Sanders +2.6

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Monmouth Sanders 26, Biden 16, Bloomberg 11, Warren 13, Buttigieg 13, Klobuchar 6, Yang 4, Steyer 1, Gabbard 1, Bennet 0, Patrick 0 Sanders +10

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Morning Consult Sanders 25, Biden 22, Bloomberg 17, Warren 11, Buttigieg 11, Klobuchar 3, Yang 4, Steyer 3, Gabbard 1, Bennet 1, Patrick 0 Sanders +3

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination The Hill/HarrisX Sanders 20, Biden 23, Bloomberg 16, Warren 9, Buttigieg 9, Klobuchar 3, Yang 3, Steyer 3, Gabbard, Bennet, Patrick Biden +3

Just announced: Andrew Yang is out of the race. He was the remaining candidate with the lowest horoscope score, a negative 8-15. That leaves only Pete (7-8) and Bennet (8-9) in the race with (borderline) negative scores. Some of Yang's more-progressive support may go to Bernie or Elizabeth.

Well, it doesn't leave Bennet anymore; he dropped out too. These dropouts happened even before hardly any results came in. Patrick (9-6) will probably drop out tomorrow.

So far:

2020 United States presidential primary election results
New Hampshire
Live Updated at 9:03 PM PST
DEMOCRATIC

85% reporting
24 delegates available

Candidate
Delegates
Percent
Count

Bernie Sanders
9 25.8% 70,030

Pete Buttigieg
9 24.4% 66,385

Amy Klobuchar
6 19.8% 53,731

Elizabeth Warren
0 9.3% 25,414

Joe Biden
0 8.4% 22,837

Tom Steyer
0 3.6% 9,790

Tulsi Gabbard
0 3.2% 8,814

Andrew Yang
0 2.8% 7,706

Deval Patrick
0 0.4% 1,163

Michael Bennet
0 0.3% 870

[pbrower2a]

Bennett and Yang drop out. Biden looks to be in a political death spiral.

30% of the vote in (9PM ET):

Sanders 28%
Buttigieg 23%
Klobuchar 20%
Warren 10%
Biden 8%

(Others are effectively irrelevant).


....Maybe that phone call worked for the President worked if the objective was to discredit Joe Biden through his son.

GOP primary:

Trump 90%
Weld 10%

Watch the Weld voters; I can imagine many of them voting for a third party in November. We can rule out a meaningful contest for the Republican Party nomination. Reform, Constitution, and Libertarian Parties have yet to check in. It wouldn't take much for a third-Party conservative to cut the Trump vote to 44% or less in 2016.

[pbrower2a]

Amy Klobuchar has just decided to connect to FDR... a good choice!

[Marypoza]

Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

[Eric the Green]

(02-11-2020, 10:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

CNN just declared Sanders the winner of NH primary.

[Marypoza]

(02-11-2020, 11:18 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 10:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

CNN just declared Sanders the winner of NH primary.

-- a whole lotta news outlets declared him the winner

[David Horn]

(02-11-2020, 10:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

Carville and Bernie are both curmudgeons, and they don't like each other very well.  What do you think?

[David Horn]

(02-12-2020, 06:12 AM)Marypoza Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 11:18 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 10:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

CNN just declared Sanders the winner of NH primary.

-- a whole lotta news outlets declared him the winner

But here's the rub.  He came-in at 26%, Buttigieg at 24% and Klobuchar at 20%.  Now, the not-Bernie Two are not really in the same lane, but are closer to each other than either is to Bernie.  Going forward, Bernie seems to unencumbered by Warren (fading away fast) and the other two have the center-left to fight over … until Bloomberg shows-up.  If Bernie isn't part of the fray, he gets less press attention (everyone assumes he runs alone in his lane) while the others generate a horse race worth reporting.  Add to that, Blomberg is already piling-on the paid advertising.  I'm not sure how that plays yet, but having no one to contend with may actually be a major negative … or not.  Who knows this year.

[Eric the Green]

(02-12-2020, 12:53 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-12-2020, 06:12 AM)Marypoza Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 11:18 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 10:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

CNN just declared Sanders the winner of NH primary.

-- a whole lotta news outlets declared him the winner

But here's the rub.  He came-in at 26%, Buttigieg at 24% and Klobuchar at 20%.  Now, the not-Bernie Two are not really in the same lane, but are closer to each other than either is to Bernie.  Going forward, Bernie seems to (be) unencumbered by Warren (fading away fast) and the other two have the center-left to fight over … until Bloomberg shows-up.  If Bernie isn't part of the fray, he gets less press attention (everyone assumes he runs alone in his lane) while the others generate a horse race worth reporting.  Add to that, Bloomberg is already piling-on the paid advertising.  I'm not sure how that plays yet, but having no one to contend with may actually be a major negative … or not.  Who knows this year.

Biden may still win South Carolina, according to reports, and he is also contending in Nevada, which is more latino. Warren is still in it too. I don't see Klobuchar doing as well elsewhere either. The national polls have not switched that far yet from where they were. 

today's averages:
Democratic Presidential Nomination

• Sanders23.6
  
• Biden19.2
  
• Bloomberg14.2
  
• Warren12.4
  
• Buttigieg10.6
  
• Klobuchar4.6
  
• Yang3.0
  
• Steyer1.8
  

Sanders +4.4

So we have 2 progressives, and 4 moderates: Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden and Bloomberg. But Buttigieg is more progressive than the other three, and got voters in NH across all the various ideological and demographic categories. He did not win any group, but did well in all of them, according to exit poll reports.

Bloomberg is moving up well in the real clear average, passing Warren, but last time I saw a poll for California, where he is advertising heavily, he hadn't moved his poll numbers there at all. If he doesn't do well in CA on Super Tuesday, how can he compete?

North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary (March 3)
High Point
Biden 24, Sanders 20, Bloomberg 16, Warren 11, Buttigieg 8, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 4, Gabbard 2
Biden +4

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Economist/YouGov
Sanders 22, Biden 18, Bloomberg 12, Warren 15, Buttigieg 10, Klobuchar 7, Yang 2, Steyer 1, Gabbard 4
Sanders +4

CNN reports that Deval Patrick has dropped out.

[pbrower2a]

Biden wins the Democratic nomination, if at all, by overpowering everyone else among non-white minorities scarce in the electorates of Iowa and New Hampshire. Otherwise -- the "perfect phone call" that John Bolton called "a drug deal" may have successfully knocked up what seemed like Trump's most ominous rival.

[Eric the Green]

Sanders Is Winning Because He's Popular
Voters like the senator from Vermont—it’s socialism that makes them nervous.
(uh, his horoscope score is 14-7, compared to the wonky crusader rabbit Warren's score of 8-7 )

(excerpts from an article in The Atlantic)

..... Warren has grounded her appeal in wonkiness and know-how, making questions about the viability of specific plans make-or-break. Sanders’s appeal is more personal.

As the runner-up in the 2016 Democratic race, he entered the 2020 contest with strong name recognition, on a tier with only Biden. According to Morning Consult, he also has the highest favorability of all the Democratic contenders. Core to his personal appeal is authenticity. Politicians are famous for changing their views based on what is popular, a charge that’s especially potent against Biden. Sanders has been saying the same things, in largely the same fashion, for decades. Whatever you think of these ideas, they are sincerely held.

Yes, Sanders can (by his own admission) come off as a crank, but his crankiness matches the times. Lots of Democrats are angry about the state of the country. Sanders hates all the right things and rails against them, and it’s this anger, more than the specifics of his solutions, that has proved essential to his appeal. Warren wants technocratic, if sweeping, changes to the system. Sanders is faster to wish a pox on it.

He has also benefited from a strong campaign. Like many first-time presidential candidates, Sanders led an often chaotic and error-prone effort in 2016. Like all the best second-time candidates, he has learned from those mistakes. He built a large organization in 2016, maintained it between elections, and brought that into this race. The campaign has done a good job of working to fix problems that became clear in 2016, most of all Sanders’s weakness with nonwhite voters.

The fruits of that effort are now appearing. As The New York Times notes, Sanders’s recent surge in polls is largely due to an influx of support from black and Latino voters. (Biden still leads by a wide margin among African Americans overall.) Sanders faces an uphill battle here, because minority voters are more likely to identify as moderates, but nonwhites said in a recent CNN poll that Sanders understands their problems better than Biden—another sign of personal, rather than policy-specific, appeal.

Matt Yglesias flags a survey from Data for Progress that shows Sanders leading President Donald Trump in head-to-head polls, even when voters are cued with a mention of Sanders’s socialism. It doesn’t make much difference—the Vermonter leads either way. Yglesias theorizes that Trump’s attempts at red-scaring aren’t working. That’s possible, but it’s also possible that the “socialist” tag simply doesn’t hurt Sanders, because voters like him personally.

Personal appeal also explains why Sanders has flourished, including in places like Iowa, while other self-described socialists have not. When Democrats nominated left-wing candidates for congressional districts in Republican territory, those candidates flopped, while more moderate ones were more likely to succeed.

This is not to say that some of Sanders’s policies are not popular—both with Democrats and with the broader population. But as Sanders himself has noted, this is less a sign of incipient revolution than it is of the vagueness of the socialist label and the existing, if underappreciated, leftist tendencies already present in American society.

“In many respects we have a socialist society today, we have a huge budget, puts money into all areas,” Sanders said on Fox News Sunday this weekend. “Now, Donald Trump, before he was president, as a private businessperson, he received $800 million in tax breaks and subsidies to build luxury housing in New York … The difference between my socialism and Trump’s socialism is, I believe the government should help working families, not billionaires. So I believe that health care is a human right. I believe we should raise the minimum wage to a living wage of $15 an hour.”

The idea that Sanders’s popularity is driven by, well, his popularity, rather than a sudden leftward shift, rebukes many of the narratives about him. Lefties young (like Sanders’s base) and old (like himself) should be careful of overinterpreting his electoral success in this primary. Support for socialism is growing, but anyone other than Sanders would likely struggle to match his results.

Much the same might be said of the president whom Sanders is running to unseat; he is personally popular among Republican voters, but has failed to sweep into office a wave of ideologically similar allies. Trump’s overhaul of Republican Party positions, however, from free trade to foreign affairs, shows why it’s also unwise to write off Sanders’s victories as ephemeral. Once elected, a president can have an enormous impact. Candidates often drive changes in ideology more effectively than changing ideologies boost candidates.

My note: The Atlantic seems to have a lot of handsome millennial guys as staff writers
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...ry/606004/

[Eric the Green]

(02-12-2020, 02:18 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Biden wins the Democratic nomination, if at all, by overpowering everyone else among non-white minorities scarce in the electorates of Iowa and New Hampshire. Otherwise -- the "perfect phone call" that John Bolton called "a drug deal"  may have successfully knocked up what seemed like Trump's  most ominous rival.

I doubt most Democrats believe Trump's lies. Voters are nervous about Biden's ways of coming across right now, and think that he may be past his prime and too ineffective against Trump.

[pbrower2a]

(02-12-2020, 02:32 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-12-2020, 02:18 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Biden wins the Democratic nomination, if at all, by overpowering everyone else among non-white minorities scarce in the electorates of Iowa and New Hampshire. Otherwise -- the "perfect phone call" that John Bolton called "a drug deal"  may have successfully knocked off what seemed like Trump's  most ominous rival.

I doubt most Democrats believe Trump's lies. Voters are nervous about Biden's ways of coming across right now, and think that he may be past his prime and too ineffective against Trump.

Possible. The SNL satire (and it is good for explaining much in politics) has Biden as a doddering old-timer.

[Marypoza]

(02-12-2020, 12:44 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 10:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

Carville and Bernie are both curmudgeons, and they don't like each other very well.  What do you think?

-- l think think l  was making a joke

As 4 the #s, yes Bernie won NH but he didn't blow it out like he did in 2016, & 2gether Amy & Buttcheat have more votes. But do they have staying power? Amy in particular, running 2nd tier until her surge this past week & underperforming in lA, apparently has no ground game beyond NH. Neither of these 2 have support among minorities or in the South & several of those states have their primaries on Super Tuesday with SC being the weekend b4. My guess ( operative word) is that the DNC expects these 2 will flame out by ST & dliver their delegates 2 Groper Joe, who they expect 2 make a comeback. We'll see. As 4 Bernie, he just needs 2 keep on winning primaries, or @ least do well in them, & not look back. As the Atlantic article Eric posted points out, Bernie's learned from his 2016 mistakes & has a much better ground game going in this time around

[David Horn]

(02-12-2020, 04:17 PM)Marypoza Wrote:

(02-12-2020, 12:44 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-11-2020, 10:07 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Well Bernie's kicking it 2nite

With Bennett gone will Jim Carville support Bernie now

Carville and Bernie are both curmudgeons, and they don't like each other very well.  What do you think?

-- l think think l  was making a joke

OK.  I guess my humor meter was on the fritz.