Election 2020

[pbrower2a]

(03-27-2020, 11:31 AM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(03-18-2020, 12:10 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: That the Republican governor of Ohio cancelled the prime day of the Ohio primary, yes.  MSNBC and Rachel Maddow reported this a few days ago.  The three primaries reported on recently were originally scheduled as four.

If the shelter in place order is still in place in November, would Trump do same thing to keep a hold on power?  Possible.  He has often said he can do anything.  He has ignored the two term constitutional limit in various daydreams.  As far as I could tell, no big ruckus occurred in Ohio.  It would likely make absolutely sure he was gone when the order is eventually canceled, but I wouldn't put it past him.

One guy's opinion.  We'll see if the shelter in place thing sticks, how serious the isolation becomes.  November is very far away to do much more than wonder.  It is enough to start a discussion.

...I suspect that your "anything he wants" comment is based on an out-of-context statement. Trump was talking about firing prosecutors. The POTUS CAN fire anyone in the Executive branch, he's the HEAD of the executive branch. Article II, you know. Meanwhile, Obama sometimes claimed that he knew he wasn't a king, but then went ahead and acted like one. I suspect Obama would have been exploiting  Wuflu for power faster than a hobo could jump on a hoagie.

Obama has been mute on this, but I would expect him to have reacted faster and upon the best knowledge available. Obama, much unlike Trump and much like the elder Bush, trusts expertise. Such allows good results such as not having instability erupt in countries that had just undergone anti-Communist revolutions or transformations -- and whacking Osama bin Laden. All Presidents use their powers in efforts to serve their agendas, whether Dwight Eisenhower or Donald Trump.

Political power depends to no small extent upon credibility, and Obama protected his credibility far better than has Donald Trump.  

Quote:As for primaries, they are essentially a partially taxpayer subsidized election for a private organization, i.e., a political party. A political party doesn't even have to pay attention to the results of an election, if it doesn't like the results. That's a little different from a constitutionally mandated election, isn't it?

Donald Trump is President, and liberals have accepted that reality even of they loathe the consequences. Liberals have no obligation to agree with him, adjust their values to fit his so that he can enact revolutionary and permanent changes onto American thought and institutions, do or tolerate his dirty work for him, undo 200+ years of Constitutional norms and nearly 400 years of heritage of responsible elected government (first emerging in the Massachusetts General Court soon after the settlement of the Massachusetts Bay Colony), or endorse strange ways of despotism that he has introduced.   

You hypocritically demand that we liberals do for Donald Trump what we never demanded of the American Right.

[Camz]

How has no one posted this yet? Oh right... we're all in complete disbelief.. and disappointment. We will have to face the truth at some point, but for now, I'm gonna be praying for the future of our nation.

[pbrower2a]

...I notice that JDG has not tried to refute my response to him. He has had two weeks in which to respond. If you read this and you are not JDG, then I fully understand. If you agree with me, then I applaud your silence. I try to avoid partisan rancor when discussing the long view of history. The current frenzy will soon enough become irrelevant.

Fanaticism badly serves truth. Truth is best served with calm openness. Fanaticism demeans whatever cause it hijacks.

[pbrower2a]

(04-08-2020, 05:18 PM)Camz Wrote:



How has no one posted this yet? Oh right... we're all in complete disbelief.. and disappointment. We will have to face the truth at some point, but for now, I'm gonna be praying for the future of our nation.

This is the basic truth: however much I may like much of Bernie Sanders' agenda I see an even greater need in ensuring that Donald Trump be a one-term President. It is not so that conservatism can be defeated once and for all; if anything, I see hope for the rise of a conservatism that repudiates the demagoguery, fanaticism, cruelty, negligence, dishonesty, incompetence, polarization, and corruption of Donald Trump. We are far better off when the political contest is between bland liberalism and bland conservatism than when it is between liberalism and fascism -- or between Marxism and conservatism. In most times incremental change over time does more good than does radical, abrupt change that inspires radical, abrupt repudiation when that change goes too far.  

Don't fool yourself: free markets do much well. COVID-19 has done more to suspend a free market in America than any radical agenda (whether the Klan or the Commies), wartime necessity, or radical reform. This said, capitalism is a means and not an end, and in the aftermath of forty years of economic tendencies that culminated in Donald Trump, the only viable capitalism that we can afford is capitalism with a human face. The only contribution that Donald Trump can do to the achievement of that viable manifestation of capitalism is to show us what not to do.  

If we Americans are to have any dignity as a people, then Trump must go. He must be defeated in the general election of 2020, which in view of the willingness of many to thwart such, must be so clear that nobody can say that he lost because some Governor cheated. Trump will not face electoral defeat as Al Gore did if it is close, and neither will his supporters. It will be far easier to shut people up about imaginary votes in Detroit if Trump should also lose Texas. But we must do this with an election, and not a coup or revolution.  We also get political change through a process that does not include the dictate of a despot.

[Eric the Green]

What are the Keys saying now about Trump vs. Biden?

The Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote.

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
False: Biden wins this key

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
True, favors Trump

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
True, favors trump

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
True, Trump wins this key

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
False: Biden wins this key

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
False, favors Biden

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
False, favors Biden. A tax cut and refusing to abide by laws on immigrations is not a change in national policy. Tax cuts for the rich is established policy since 1981. And his tarriff policy resulted in no major changes.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
False, this key now has turned in favor of Biden

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
False, Biden wins this key

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
True, no major failure. Trump wins this key

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
False, his only success was to finish Obama's war on the IS. Biden wins this key

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
False, favors Biden

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
True, favors Trump


As I figure it, Biden now has 8 Keys in his favor, and Trump has 5. I don't see change in this score as very likely. He has no skill in foreign policy, or in any policy for that matter, so he is unlikely to change any keys. If unrest dies down and doesn't recur, Trump could regain Key #8. But he has not, and will not, do anything to change it. Incumbency, party loyalty and the personal weaknesses of his opponent are his only assets in the race.

He does have a slight advantage in the astrology indicators, but there are enough caveats in these that he can't count on them.

This wikipedia summary of the Keys says it predicts the popular vote, and Trump has an advantage in the electoral college. As I remember it, this distinction meant he called the 2000 election incorrectly, since the Keys predicted Gore but he won only the popular vote and Bush won the electoral college. In 2016, Clinton won the popular vote and Trump won the electoral college, but Lichtman predicted Trump would win.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_t...hite_House

My horoscope scores and new moon indicator were correct in both cases, in predicting both the electoral and popular vote. But I had not developed my system in 2000, and at that time I thought Gore would win. I also predicted Hillary would win because of other factors, and I may have had the wrong chart for her. But the scores and new moon are the main indicators that I use, and they always favored Trump in 2016. This time, they both favor Trump, but also with caveats.
http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentialelections.html

Obviously, the Republican advantage today in the electoral college is great, and that makes prediction more difficult in a divided country.

Lichtman was not ready to call the keys a few months ago. He did not call Key 7 against Trump.
" "There were four keys solidly locked in against the president" prior to the outbreak, Lichtman explained. "It takes six to predict defeat. But this was before [the pandemic]. Key 1: Party mandate. Key 9: Scandal. Key 11: Foreign/military success. Key 12: incumbent charisma. That's four false keys locked in." "
https://www.salon.com/2020/03/27/politic...ronavirus/

Another analysis (this author called Key 7 against Trump):
https://www.nationofchange.org/2020/05/1...ey-states/
"To win, Trump must get 6 or fewer negative keys. He had that at the end of 2019 (The only likely negatives were 1, 7, 9, 12). But with the advent of COVID-19 and its impact on social stability and the economy, there are negatives on 5, 8 and 11 (there was no major success in foreign or military affairs)."

Here is another good analysis of the Keys
https://soapboxie.com/us-politics/Predic...rn-in-2020
This one agrees with my analysis, but keeps keys 5, 6 and 8 uncertain at this time. He gives the Democrats a slight edge as of now, because those 3 keys are not looking too bright for Trump now.

[Eric the Green]

The electoral college map has improved for Biden according to the latest Real Clear Politics map. Minnesota is now leaning Biden.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...e_map.html

[Eric the Green]

My outlook?

[Eric the Green]

As of now, I think things on election night will go back to where they were in the Obama era, except that Biden will have trouble taking Ohio and Iowa along, whereas Texas and Georgia will be closer to going Democratic than they were in 2012. And North Carolina could be razor thin.

[Eric the Green]

The consensus of 10 organizations now making forecasts, from 270 to win, as of today:

[Ragnarök_62]

Looking at the state stuff.

I'm looking forward to fucking up some Republican shit.

https://okpolicy.org/sq-802-information-and-resources/

Yes, it's time for Medicaid expansion because of Covid-19 among-st other things.  Of course our idiot Governor "Shitt" opposes it.

And look at this.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Se...homa,_2020

I'm going to vote against our resident idiot Infofe.  Idiot removal should be a priority. Dunno if he'll go for sure, but it's gonna feel real good to vote against him.

Weed's already legal, so perhaps slowly, but surely, sanity can return to our Republican blighted state to a better place.

[David Horn]

(06-24-2020, 07:51 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Looking at the state stuff.

I'm looking forward to fucking up some Republican shit.

https://okpolicy.org/sq-802-information-and-resources/

Yes, it's time for Medicaid expansion because of Covid-19 among-st other things.  Of course our idiot Governor "Shitt" opposes it.

And look at this.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Se...homa,_2020

I'm going to vote against our resident idiot Infofe.  Idiot removal should be a priority. Dunno if he'll go for sure, but it's gonna feel real good to vote against him.

Weed's already legal, so perhaps slowly, but surely, sanity can return to our Republican blighted state to a better place.

Do you see any blowback from the Trump rally and the proximity to Greenwood?  It seemed to be a stupid time to do this, even for the Orange One.

[Ragnarök_62]

(06-25-2020, 02:54 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-24-2020, 07:51 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: Looking at the state stuff.

I'm looking forward to fucking up some Republican shit.

https://okpolicy.org/sq-802-information-and-resources/

Yes, it's time for Medicaid expansion because of Covid-19 among-st other things.  Of course our idiot Governor "Shitt" opposes it.

And look at this.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Se...homa,_2020

I'm going to vote against our resident idiot Infofe.  Idiot removal should be a priority. Dunno if he'll go for sure, but it's gonna feel real good to vote against him.

Weed's already legal, so perhaps slowly, but surely, sanity can return to our Republican blighted state to a better place.

Do you see any blowback from the Trump rally and the proximity to Greenwood?  It seemed to be a stupid time to do this, even for the Orange One.

I'd reckon the holding the rally there of all places is less than optimal to say the least. KTUL has it that bars in Tulsa are shutting down because of "an explosion in Covid-19".  So yes, at this early moment, at the least it does not help, and at the worst, it's a catalyst for said explosion.

[Eric the Green]

The current map of polling, from 270 to win
https://www.270towin.com/

[Eric the Green]

Biden 51.1
Trump 41.5
according to fivethirtyeight.com poll average

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

[Eric the Green]

The current polling map based on 538.com and 270 to win
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

[Eric the Green]

Where are the blue and red states, as defined by the above map of current polling?

Blue states include: states that are on the ocean coastal border of the USA:
HI CA OR WA FL NC VA MD DE NJ NY CT RI MA NH ME

Blue states include: states that border the great lakes coastal border of the USA: MN WI MI PA NY

Blue states include: states that border the land of Canada to the north: MN NY VT NH ME

Blue state that borders Mexico to the south: NM

Blue state also on the Gulf of Mexico: FL

Blue states that border blue states mentioned above, but not any US border: CO NV DC


Red states that do NOT border the US coast or any US border, and do NOT border any blue state that is next to a US border: UT WY NE KS AR

Other Red states that do not border any US coast or any US border: SD OK MO KY TN WV

Red states bordering the tropical Gulf of Mexico: LA MS AL

Red states that border the land of Canada: AK ID MT ND

Red states on an ocean: AK SC


Swing states that border Mexico: AZ, TX

Swing state that also borders the Gulf of Mexico: TX

Swing state that borders an ocean: GA

Swing state that borders the great lakes: OH

Swing state that does not share a US border: IA

(all these states were Trump states in 2016)


Generally, blue states are those connected to the border of the USA, and especially to a blue ocean or great lake. Thus they are more cosmopolitan, more connected to the rest of the world, and less purely "American" as Classic Xer might say.

Generally, red states are those NOT connected to the border of the USA, especially not to oceans or great lakes, and thus are "heartland America" and more disconnected from the world. But 3 are connected to the tropical Gulf of Mexico on the south, along with many (other) banana republics. 3 are connected to a land border, one to an ocean, and 1 to both.

[Eric the Green]

2020 Electoral Map Based on Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
https://www.270towin.com/maps/biden-trump-polling-map

Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls.

Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.

States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.

Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time. This far from November, they may be of limited predictive value.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

[Eric the Green]

I admit, when they get rid of the electoral college, I will miss these fun maps! Even though the results of the Electoral College have been to produce our two worst presidents in history just in this 21st century!

This map is a current polling map based on fivethirtyeight.com ,
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol.../national/

using the 270 to win interactive map to create my own map.
Here is the blank 270towin which you can use to make your own. Click on map library and choose consensus map to see their 270 consensus predictive map:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/blank-2020-electoral-map

fivethirtyeight doesn't have a map, so I used my own standards from their polls. Where there are no current polls, I left the state where the 270towin consensus put it. I used the fivethirtyeight average for today, and where there is no average listed, I averaged the polls reported there for 2020. toss up = up to 3%. leaning = 3 to 9%. likely = 9 to 15%. solid = over 15%. blue = Democratic and red = Republican.

[Eric the Green]

How I see the polls right now, based on 538, 270towin and realclear:
(with no toss-ups except ME-2)

[Eric the Green]

The current polling map for July 22 according to fivethirtyeight.com, using 270towin map to share here and for states with no polling. +-3= tossup, 3-9 leaning, 9-15 likely, 15+ solid. (one poll put Arkansas as +2 Trump, but that's only one poll this year, so I am keeping it lean Republican)