10-10-2016, 09:58 PM
*** 11-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal
****
![[Image: g161010b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161010b.jpg)
Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday in Istanbul (Reuters)
Officials from Russia and Turkey signed an agreement on Monday for the
Turkish Stream pipeline project, to build pipelines supplying Russian
natural gas to Turkey and to western Europe. The agreement was signed
in Istanbul, Turkey, during the World Energy Congress, during a
ceremony attended by Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Also attending was Ilham Aliyev of
president of Azerbaijan, since Azerbaijan will be taking part in the
project.
The agreement is being viewed as the biggest sign so far that Turkey
and Russia are overcoming their differences after Turkey shot down a
Russian warplane in November 2015. Nonetheless, all the signs are
that this was a deal of pragmatism, rather than any real warming of
relations between the two leaders or the two countries.
Both countries have become internationally isolated because of
sanctions. The West imposed sanctions on Russia after Russia invaded
and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Turkey became isolated when
Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey because of the shootdown.
The relationship between Russia and Turkey became extremely vitriolic,
but neither country did anything that might be called a "nuclear
option." The sanctions that Russia imposed on Turkey -- food
imports/exports, tourism restrictions, etc. -- hurt both economies,
but were not sufficiently serious to be significant.
For Turkey, the "nuclear option" would have been to close the Turkish
straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles channels), the waterways that
connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, to Russian ships that
wish to travel between the two bodies of water. That never happened.
Russia could have canceled natural gas shipments to Turkey through the
existing Blue Stream trans-Black Sea gas pipeline, but that never
happened either.
Further plans on the new TurkStream gas pipeline project were canceled
after the shootdown last year, as were plans for a Russian-built
nuclear plant in Turkey. But with Monday's agreement, those plans are
are all now being implemented. Sputnik News (Moscow) and VOA and Reuters
Related Articles
****
**** Turkey-Russia TurkStream deal based on pragmatism rather than reconciliation
****
Both Turkey and Russia have had ailing economies recently. Signing
the TurkStream deal on Monday will mean major economic benefits to
both countries -- assuming that the pipelines are actually built.
Russia's existing pipelines run through Ukraine, a country whose
relations with Russia are even worse than Turkey's. The TurkStream
project would provide an alternate path for Russian gas to reach
Europe. The TurkStream pipelines would bring infrastructure
investment into Turkey, and would provide steady income in the form of
transit fees of Russian gas through Turkey to Europe.
However, Turkey and Russia are still deeply divided over the war in
Syria. It's hard to remember now, but before 2011, Erdogan, Putin and
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad were all allies. Then the so-called
"Arab Spring" began, and al-Assad began slaughtering peaceful
protesters, as well as women and children in marketplaces and schools.
In August 2011, when he launched a massive military assault on a
large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens
of thousands of women and children Palestinians, Turkey turned against
al-Assad. At the same time, Putin, who has plenty of his own
experience in slaughtering innocent women and children, became
al-Assad's ally and protector. Those bitter differences between
Erdogan and Putin still exist, and will not disappear as long as
al-Assad is governing Syria.
Another bitter difference arises from the fact that Turkey has invaded
northern Syria in Operation Euphrates Shield, in order to drive
fighters from both Kurdish militias and and the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Turkey has set up a "safe zone"
in northern Syria for Syrians fleeing from al-Assad's violence. This
means that Turkey's troops are expected to remain for some time.
On the Russian side, Russia is installing advanced surface-to-air
missile systems. Since the jihadist groups do not have an air force,
these missile systems are presumably meant for aircraft from Europe,
the US, and especially Turkey.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's clear where this
is going. As I've been writing for years, in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be on one side, and the West, India, Russia and Iran
will be on the other side.
People often say that two countries won't go to war because it would
be bad for business, and that's being said now about the Russia-Turkey
business deal. But that's not how the world works. If two countries
have high volumes of trade, then that just becomes another weapon of
war, as one country imposes sanctions on the other. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Time
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria,
Operation Euphrates Shield, safe zone, Bashar al-Assad,
Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
World Energy Congress, Turkish Stream, TurkStream,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ukraine, Crimea, Bosporus, Dardanelles, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal
- Turkey-Russia TurkStream deal based on pragmatism rather than reconciliation
****
**** Turkey's Erdogan and Russia's Putin sign TurkStream gas pipeline deal
****
Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday in Istanbul (Reuters)
Officials from Russia and Turkey signed an agreement on Monday for the
Turkish Stream pipeline project, to build pipelines supplying Russian
natural gas to Turkey and to western Europe. The agreement was signed
in Istanbul, Turkey, during the World Energy Congress, during a
ceremony attended by Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Turkey's
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Also attending was Ilham Aliyev of
president of Azerbaijan, since Azerbaijan will be taking part in the
project.
The agreement is being viewed as the biggest sign so far that Turkey
and Russia are overcoming their differences after Turkey shot down a
Russian warplane in November 2015. Nonetheless, all the signs are
that this was a deal of pragmatism, rather than any real warming of
relations between the two leaders or the two countries.
Both countries have become internationally isolated because of
sanctions. The West imposed sanctions on Russia after Russia invaded
and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. Turkey became isolated when
Russia imposed sanctions on Turkey because of the shootdown.
The relationship between Russia and Turkey became extremely vitriolic,
but neither country did anything that might be called a "nuclear
option." The sanctions that Russia imposed on Turkey -- food
imports/exports, tourism restrictions, etc. -- hurt both economies,
but were not sufficiently serious to be significant.
For Turkey, the "nuclear option" would have been to close the Turkish
straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles channels), the waterways that
connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, to Russian ships that
wish to travel between the two bodies of water. That never happened.
Russia could have canceled natural gas shipments to Turkey through the
existing Blue Stream trans-Black Sea gas pipeline, but that never
happened either.
Further plans on the new TurkStream gas pipeline project were canceled
after the shootdown last year, as were plans for a Russian-built
nuclear plant in Turkey. But with Monday's agreement, those plans are
are all now being implemented. Sputnik News (Moscow) and VOA and Reuters
Related Articles
- Russia and Turkey increasingly on a war footing (04-Dec-2015)
- Hard issues prevent full reconciliation between Turkey and Russia (08-Jul-2016)
****
**** Turkey-Russia TurkStream deal based on pragmatism rather than reconciliation
****
Both Turkey and Russia have had ailing economies recently. Signing
the TurkStream deal on Monday will mean major economic benefits to
both countries -- assuming that the pipelines are actually built.
Russia's existing pipelines run through Ukraine, a country whose
relations with Russia are even worse than Turkey's. The TurkStream
project would provide an alternate path for Russian gas to reach
Europe. The TurkStream pipelines would bring infrastructure
investment into Turkey, and would provide steady income in the form of
transit fees of Russian gas through Turkey to Europe.
However, Turkey and Russia are still deeply divided over the war in
Syria. It's hard to remember now, but before 2011, Erdogan, Putin and
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad were all allies. Then the so-called
"Arab Spring" began, and al-Assad began slaughtering peaceful
protesters, as well as women and children in marketplaces and schools.
In August 2011, when he launched a massive military assault on a
large, peaceful Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia, filled with tens
of thousands of women and children Palestinians, Turkey turned against
al-Assad. At the same time, Putin, who has plenty of his own
experience in slaughtering innocent women and children, became
al-Assad's ally and protector. Those bitter differences between
Erdogan and Putin still exist, and will not disappear as long as
al-Assad is governing Syria.
Another bitter difference arises from the fact that Turkey has invaded
northern Syria in Operation Euphrates Shield, in order to drive
fighters from both Kurdish militias and and the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Turkey has set up a "safe zone"
in northern Syria for Syrians fleeing from al-Assad's violence. This
means that Turkey's troops are expected to remain for some time.
On the Russian side, Russia is installing advanced surface-to-air
missile systems. Since the jihadist groups do not have an air force,
these missile systems are presumably meant for aircraft from Europe,
the US, and especially Turkey.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's clear where this
is going. As I've been writing for years, in the coming Clash of
Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim
countries will be on one side, and the West, India, Russia and Iran
will be on the other side.
People often say that two countries won't go to war because it would
be bad for business, and that's being said now about the Russia-Turkey
business deal. But that's not how the world works. If two countries
have high volumes of trade, then that just becomes another weapon of
war, as one country imposes sanctions on the other. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Time
Related Articles
- Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
- Russia's troubles rise as the ruble and oil prices fall (07-Nov-2014)
- UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 famine in Ukraine (22-Nov-2009)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Syria,
Operation Euphrates Shield, safe zone, Bashar al-Assad,
Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
World Energy Congress, Turkish Stream, TurkStream,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ukraine, Crimea, Bosporus, Dardanelles, Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
