10-31-2016, 09:03 PM
*** 1-Nov-16 World View -- France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows
****
![[Image: g161031b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161031b.jpg)
French peacekeeping force in Central African Republic (AFP)
France on Monday formally ended its peacekeeping mission in Central
African Republic. Using an old trick to "just declare victory and go
home," France hailed it as a success even though it's been pretty much
a total failure, as violence in the country's civil war has continued
in recent months and even surged.
The French mission, known as Sangaris, was launched in December 2013,
and was supposed to last for six months, until a United Nations force
could take over. The UN force is known as MINUSCA, which stands for
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central
African Republic. The French force had 2,500 troops at its peak, and
MINUSCA has about 12,000 troops.
The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.
After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias.
The actions of the French troops backfired. When the Muslim Seleka
troops were disarmed, the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into
the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge
against the Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have
been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational
crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been
displaced.
As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis civil war has already started.
France's defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced the withdrawal
of the French troops, saying that MINUSCA is now ready to take full
responsibility for the peacekeeping operation.
A prominent CAR official, Anicet Georges Dologuele, said that Le Drian
was wrong:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Sangaris is pulling out far too early. Our security
> forces are not ready to take over. The UN forces are more and
> more overwhelmed."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Le Drian was unsympathetic:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It's always too early. These responsibilities are
> above all your own."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
There are still numerous armed groups fighting in CAR. The main ones
are the Muslim former Seleka force, and the Christian "anti-Balaka"
militias, a reference to the machetes used by the Selekas. There are
also vigilante groups made up of nomadic, predominantly Muslim Fulani
herders, as well as others specializing in highway robbery.
Both the French forces and the MINUSCA forces have mainly been doing
their "peacekeeping" in the region around the country's capital city
Bangui. But CAR is a huge country, and much of the country has not
been affected by "peacekeeping" at all. Thus there continues to be
fighting among armed groups across the country.
Since the armed militias are reported to fear the French forces more
than the MINUSCA forces, there are concerns that the withdrawal of the
French forces will trigger a major surge in new violence. France 24 and Deutsche Welle
Related Articles
****
**** Widespread dissatisfaction with UN peacekeeping force MINUSCA
****
During the past 18 months, there have been scores of allegations of
child rape and other sexual abuse by MINUSCA's peacekeepers, though
French troops have faced similar accusations.
Roland Marchal, of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS)
in Paris, speaking on RFI, agreed that MINUSCA is not ready to take
full responsibility for the peacekeeping operation, because they fail
to act decisively, "they find an explanation not to move too quickly,
not to move to the neighborhoods, and they procrastinate on making
difficult decisions." He says that this sends a wrong message to the
CAR population, who feel that MINUSCA is not doing its job. "The
crisis is deep, it's structural, it's systemic, so you have to make
radical decisions, to integrate more the countryside," and neither
MINUSCA nor the government is willing to do that.
Marchal added that the French troops were not able to fulfill their
mandate either, although they were there for three years. "Their
mandate was to disarm armed groups, and have the country move to
national reconciliation. But it became clear that disarming the armed
groups would actually be a very hard task, and costly, and second, to
undertake drastic reforms in car you need a legitimate government."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly what
is to be expected, as I've been writing since 2013 when the crisis
began. CAR is in a generational crisis war, and a generational crisis
war does not until there's an "explosive climax," something so
horrific that both sides decide to stop fighting. This could be a
real "explosion," such as the nuking of Japan that ended World War II,
or it could be a massive act of genocide. Whatever it is, it must be
so bad that it will be remembered for decades or even centuries, and
will convince the survivors that it must "never again" be allowed to
happen -- and it doesn't, as long as the survivors are alive.
We're seeing the same kind of situation in Africa's other generational
crisis war -- the Darfur war. It's a similar story. In 2007, the a
UN Security Council resolution established the United Nations–African
Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), and provided peacekeeping troops to
protect the Darfurians. Millions of people who were threatened with
violence were moved from their villages to camps for refugees and IDPs
(internally displaced persons) controlled by UNAMID. Today, there are
still more than 3.1 million IDPs living in these refugee camps, and
they are still suffering from hunger, thirst, and attacks from the
militias that were attacking them ten years ago. Once again, the
Darfur war will not end until there's a "explosive climax," a massive
act of genocide that will convince all the survivors to stop fighting.
Until then, the war goes on. RFI (Paris) and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Central African Republic, Sangaris,
Michel Djotodia, François Bozizé, Seleka, anti-Balaka, MINUSCA,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle, Jean-Yves Le Drian,
Anicet Georges Dologuele, Roland Marchal,
Sudan, Darfur, UNAMID
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows
- Widespread dissatisfaction with UN peacekeeping force MINUSCA
****
**** France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows
****
French peacekeeping force in Central African Republic (AFP)
France on Monday formally ended its peacekeeping mission in Central
African Republic. Using an old trick to "just declare victory and go
home," France hailed it as a success even though it's been pretty much
a total failure, as violence in the country's civil war has continued
in recent months and even surged.
The French mission, known as Sangaris, was launched in December 2013,
and was supposed to last for six months, until a United Nations force
could take over. The UN force is known as MINUSCA, which stands for
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central
African Republic. The French force had 2,500 troops at its peak, and
MINUSCA has about 12,000 troops.
The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.
After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias.
The actions of the French troops backfired. When the Muslim Seleka
troops were disarmed, the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into
the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge
against the Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have
been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational
crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been
displaced.
As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis civil war has already started.
France's defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced the withdrawal
of the French troops, saying that MINUSCA is now ready to take full
responsibility for the peacekeeping operation.
A prominent CAR official, Anicet Georges Dologuele, said that Le Drian
was wrong:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Sangaris is pulling out far too early. Our security
> forces are not ready to take over. The UN forces are more and
> more overwhelmed."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Le Drian was unsympathetic:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"It's always too early. These responsibilities are
> above all your own."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
There are still numerous armed groups fighting in CAR. The main ones
are the Muslim former Seleka force, and the Christian "anti-Balaka"
militias, a reference to the machetes used by the Selekas. There are
also vigilante groups made up of nomadic, predominantly Muslim Fulani
herders, as well as others specializing in highway robbery.
Both the French forces and the MINUSCA forces have mainly been doing
their "peacekeeping" in the region around the country's capital city
Bangui. But CAR is a huge country, and much of the country has not
been affected by "peacekeeping" at all. Thus there continues to be
fighting among armed groups across the country.
Since the armed militias are reported to fear the French forces more
than the MINUSCA forces, there are concerns that the withdrawal of the
French forces will trigger a major surge in new violence. France 24 and Deutsche Welle
Related Articles
- Violence resurges in Central African Republic's crisis civil war (10-Jul-2016)
- France says Central African Republic has totally collapsed (11-Apr-2014)
****
**** Widespread dissatisfaction with UN peacekeeping force MINUSCA
****
During the past 18 months, there have been scores of allegations of
child rape and other sexual abuse by MINUSCA's peacekeepers, though
French troops have faced similar accusations.
Roland Marchal, of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS)
in Paris, speaking on RFI, agreed that MINUSCA is not ready to take
full responsibility for the peacekeeping operation, because they fail
to act decisively, "they find an explanation not to move too quickly,
not to move to the neighborhoods, and they procrastinate on making
difficult decisions." He says that this sends a wrong message to the
CAR population, who feel that MINUSCA is not doing its job. "The
crisis is deep, it's structural, it's systemic, so you have to make
radical decisions, to integrate more the countryside," and neither
MINUSCA nor the government is willing to do that.
Marchal added that the French troops were not able to fulfill their
mandate either, although they were there for three years. "Their
mandate was to disarm armed groups, and have the country move to
national reconciliation. But it became clear that disarming the armed
groups would actually be a very hard task, and costly, and second, to
undertake drastic reforms in car you need a legitimate government."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly what
is to be expected, as I've been writing since 2013 when the crisis
began. CAR is in a generational crisis war, and a generational crisis
war does not until there's an "explosive climax," something so
horrific that both sides decide to stop fighting. This could be a
real "explosion," such as the nuking of Japan that ended World War II,
or it could be a massive act of genocide. Whatever it is, it must be
so bad that it will be remembered for decades or even centuries, and
will convince the survivors that it must "never again" be allowed to
happen -- and it doesn't, as long as the survivors are alive.
We're seeing the same kind of situation in Africa's other generational
crisis war -- the Darfur war. It's a similar story. In 2007, the a
UN Security Council resolution established the United Nations–African
Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), and provided peacekeeping troops to
protect the Darfurians. Millions of people who were threatened with
violence were moved from their villages to camps for refugees and IDPs
(internally displaced persons) controlled by UNAMID. Today, there are
still more than 3.1 million IDPs living in these refugee camps, and
they are still suffering from hunger, thirst, and attacks from the
militias that were attacking them ten years ago. Once again, the
Darfur war will not end until there's a "explosive climax," a massive
act of genocide that will convince all the survivors to stop fighting.
Until then, the war goes on. RFI (Paris) and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
- Darfur in Sudan facing new genocide as refugees are expelled from camps (08-Sep-2016)
- Sectarian violence continues to grow in Central African Republic (17-Jul-2014)
- U.S. to help France in Central African Republic military intervention (10-Dec-2013)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Central African Republic, Sangaris,
Michel Djotodia, François Bozizé, Seleka, anti-Balaka, MINUSCA,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle, Jean-Yves Le Drian,
Anicet Georges Dologuele, Roland Marchal,
Sudan, Darfur, UNAMID
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
