11-02-2016, 09:18 PM
*** 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China
****
![[Image: g161102b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161102b.jpg)
Newly elected lawmaker Baggio Leung is restrained by security while attempting to deliver his oath of office (AFP)
Hong Kong's legislative election on September 4 handed Beijing a
stinging defeat, as pro-democracy or "localist" candidates won 27 out
of 70 seats for the Legislative Council of Hong Kong (LegCo). There
was little doubt at the time that this would substantially exacerbate
the level of tension between Hong Kong and Beijing, and now, we're
seeing the first results.
Hong Kong's LegCo has been in chaos for almost a month, thanks to two
newly elected lawmakers, Yau Wai-ching and Sixtus Baggio Leung
Chun-hang, from "Youngspiration" who have gone beyond "pro-democracy"
to advocating full Hong Kong independence from China.
When they took their oaths of office on October 12, they change the
wording of the official oath of office to express support for Hong
Kong's independence, and to describe China using a derogatory term.
Their oaths were invalidated, and since then, pro-Beijing legislators
have been staging walkouts and using other parliamentary tricks to
keep them from being seated at all.
Anticipating trouble on Wednesday, the LegCo president moved the
council's meeting from the main chamber to a conference room. The two
localists responded by storming into the conference room and demanded
to take their oaths of office and be seated. They were forcibly
ejected by security personnel.
The two localists will appear in a Hong Kong court on Thursday, and
there are a couple of outcomes that would be extremely controversial:
There is a growing reality with both Taiwan and Hong Kong. Mainland
China's government in Hong Kong has been using a carrot and stick
approach with both entities for years, hoping that the people would
eventually fall in love with Beijing and want to be government by
Beijing. This hope is extremely delusional, of course, but being
delusional is China's only path other than full-scale invasions of
both entities to bring them under control.
For both Hong Kong and Taiwan, the generations of survivors of World
War II and Mao's Communist Revolution have taken steps to encourage
unification with Beijing, or at least to avoid angering Beijing. But
it's increasingly clear to everyone that younger generations are
increasingly hostile to Beijing.
This means that there is no advantage to Beijing to waiting. Taiwan
and Hong Kong will increasingly want independence. Furthermore, as
we've seen with Hong Kong's Umbrella Revolution and Taiwan's Sunflower
Movement, independence movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong feed off of
each other, and support each other, and may even have synergy with
independence movements in Tibet (by Buddhists) or Xinjiang (by
Uighurs). Beijing has already said that that it will violently crush
anyone who even talks about "independence." This is a continually
worsening situation that Beijing is certain to find increasingly
dangerous, enough to trigger a violent reaction at some point.
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and BBC and
Global Times (Beijing)
Related Articles
****
**** Sudan follows Uganda, Namibia in cutting ties with North Korea
****
Under pressure from South Korea, Sudan has ended all military
cooperation and diplomatic connections with North Korea. According to
a statement posted by South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"[Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour of Sudan]
> mentioned that Sudan has completely cut off its military
> cooperation with North Korea, has no North Korean diplomatic
> missions in the country as well as no diplomatic missions of its
> own in the North, and has no plans for high-level exchanges. The
> Minister, calling nuclear weapons an obstacle to peace and
> security, stressed that Sudan is thoroughly implementing UN
> Security Council sanctions resolutions on North
> Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Sudan is the third African country this year to declare that it would
comply with UN sanctions against North Korea. Uganda announced in
July that it would several military and security ties with North
Korea, and this was followed by a decision of Namibia to oust two
North Korean firms that were constructing an arms and munition factory
in nation’s capital, Windhoek.
Other African countries are maintaining ties with North Korea. These
include Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Equatorial Guinea --
also countries that are themselves targets of UN sanctions. N. Korea News and S. Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NK News (7/28)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
Legislative Council of Hong Kong, LegCo,
Yau Wai-ching, Sixtus Baggio Leung Chun-hang,
National People’s Congress Standing Committee, NPCSC,
Umbrella Revolution, Taiwan, Sunflower Movement, Tibet, Xinjiang,
North Korea, Sudan, Ibrahim Ghandour, Uganda, Namibia, South Korea,
Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China
- Sudan follows Uganda, Namibia in cutting ties with North Korea
****
**** Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China
****
Newly elected lawmaker Baggio Leung is restrained by security while attempting to deliver his oath of office (AFP)
Hong Kong's legislative election on September 4 handed Beijing a
stinging defeat, as pro-democracy or "localist" candidates won 27 out
of 70 seats for the Legislative Council of Hong Kong (LegCo). There
was little doubt at the time that this would substantially exacerbate
the level of tension between Hong Kong and Beijing, and now, we're
seeing the first results.
Hong Kong's LegCo has been in chaos for almost a month, thanks to two
newly elected lawmakers, Yau Wai-ching and Sixtus Baggio Leung
Chun-hang, from "Youngspiration" who have gone beyond "pro-democracy"
to advocating full Hong Kong independence from China.
When they took their oaths of office on October 12, they change the
wording of the official oath of office to express support for Hong
Kong's independence, and to describe China using a derogatory term.
Their oaths were invalidated, and since then, pro-Beijing legislators
have been staging walkouts and using other parliamentary tricks to
keep them from being seated at all.
Anticipating trouble on Wednesday, the LegCo president moved the
council's meeting from the main chamber to a conference room. The two
localists responded by storming into the conference room and demanded
to take their oaths of office and be seated. They were forcibly
ejected by security personnel.
The two localists will appear in a Hong Kong court on Thursday, and
there are a couple of outcomes that would be extremely controversial:
- The court might rule that the two are disqualified from being
seated in LegCo. This would be the first time that a Hong Kong court
overturned a legitimate election of a legislator. Whichever way the
ruling goes, it would be appealed, and the confrontation would
continue.
- Even worse, mainland China's National People’s Congress Standing
Committee (NPCSC) may preempt the Hong Kong court and intervene, using
its power to "interpret" Hong Kong laws, as a way of disqualifying the
two. Such an intervention is likely to trigger large anti-China
protests.
There is a growing reality with both Taiwan and Hong Kong. Mainland
China's government in Hong Kong has been using a carrot and stick
approach with both entities for years, hoping that the people would
eventually fall in love with Beijing and want to be government by
Beijing. This hope is extremely delusional, of course, but being
delusional is China's only path other than full-scale invasions of
both entities to bring them under control.
For both Hong Kong and Taiwan, the generations of survivors of World
War II and Mao's Communist Revolution have taken steps to encourage
unification with Beijing, or at least to avoid angering Beijing. But
it's increasingly clear to everyone that younger generations are
increasingly hostile to Beijing.
This means that there is no advantage to Beijing to waiting. Taiwan
and Hong Kong will increasingly want independence. Furthermore, as
we've seen with Hong Kong's Umbrella Revolution and Taiwan's Sunflower
Movement, independence movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong feed off of
each other, and support each other, and may even have synergy with
independence movements in Tibet (by Buddhists) or Xinjiang (by
Uighurs). Beijing has already said that that it will violently crush
anyone who even talks about "independence." This is a continually
worsening situation that Beijing is certain to find increasingly
dangerous, enough to trigger a violent reaction at some point.
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and BBC and
Global Times (Beijing)
Related Articles
- Sharply polarized Hong Kong electorate hands Beijing a stinging setback (06-Sep-2016)
- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
- Sunflowers and Umbrellas: Taiwan voters choose independence from China (30-Nov-2014)
- Hong Kong protesters fear more violence by China's 'Triad' gangs (05-Oct-2014)
****
**** Sudan follows Uganda, Namibia in cutting ties with North Korea
****
Under pressure from South Korea, Sudan has ended all military
cooperation and diplomatic connections with North Korea. According to
a statement posted by South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"[Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour of Sudan]
> mentioned that Sudan has completely cut off its military
> cooperation with North Korea, has no North Korean diplomatic
> missions in the country as well as no diplomatic missions of its
> own in the North, and has no plans for high-level exchanges. The
> Minister, calling nuclear weapons an obstacle to peace and
> security, stressed that Sudan is thoroughly implementing UN
> Security Council sanctions resolutions on North
> Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Sudan is the third African country this year to declare that it would
comply with UN sanctions against North Korea. Uganda announced in
July that it would several military and security ties with North
Korea, and this was followed by a decision of Namibia to oust two
North Korean firms that were constructing an arms and munition factory
in nation’s capital, Windhoek.
Other African countries are maintaining ties with North Korea. These
include Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Equatorial Guinea --
also countries that are themselves targets of UN sanctions. N. Korea News and S. Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NK News (7/28)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
Legislative Council of Hong Kong, LegCo,
Yau Wai-ching, Sixtus Baggio Leung Chun-hang,
National People’s Congress Standing Committee, NPCSC,
Umbrella Revolution, Taiwan, Sunflower Movement, Tibet, Xinjiang,
North Korea, Sudan, Ibrahim Ghandour, Uganda, Namibia, South Korea,
Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
