11-27-2016, 11:01 PM
*** 28-Nov-16 World View -- Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey
****
![[Image: g161127b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161127b.jpg)
Shia militia carrying Iranian billboard (Anadolu)
Iraq's parliament on Saturday voted overwhelmingly to allow
Iran-backed Shia militias to take part in the military operation to
recapture Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh).
The vote was apparently 208 to zero. That's because all the Sunni
lawmakers boycotted the vote in protest, while all the Shia lawmakers
voted overwhelmingly in favor. The parliament has 328 seats.
Mosul is a city of close to a million people, mostly Sunni Muslims.
They're well aware that Shia militias are accused of atrocities
committed against Sunni residents of towns that Shia militias have
previously liberated from ISIS. According to a January report by
Human Rights Watch:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Members of Shia militias, who the Iraqi government
> has included among its state forces, abducted and killed scores of
> Sunni residents in a central Iraq town and demolished Sunni homes,
> stores, and mosques following January 11, 2016 bombings claimed by
> the extremist group Islamic State, also known as ISIS. None of
> those responsible have been brought to justice."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
For this reason, Turkey has predicted a sectarian war if Shia militias
are part of the force sent to liberate Mosul, and has demanded that
the Iraqi army alone liberate Mosul, a condition to which Iraq has
previously agreed. But now Iraq has apparently reneged on that
commitment.
Mosul is a historically Sunni city and was part of the Ottoman empire,
and any attempt to change is demographic composition would be a direct
threat to Turkey's security. The concern is that the population would
be diluted by Kurds or by Shia Muslims coming from Iran. Turkey would
consider that to be a threat to its security. Middle East Monitor and AP and Human Rights Watch (31-Jan-2016) and NRT TV (Kurdish)
Related Articles
****
**** The chaotic operation to liberate Mosul
****
BBC news reporter Richard Galpin last week drove to the front line in
Mosul along with one of the Iraqi army's top generals Najim
al-Jibouri. Here are some excerpts from his report:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"On the way there we saw that Shia militias, not the
> Iraqi army, were manning checkpoints in areas taken back from the
> IS militants.
>
> The militias have a controversial history. Some have been accused
> in the past of committing atrocities against Sunni Muslims. Now
> they're an integral part of the offensive on Mosul, which is a
> majority Sunni Muslim city - although they have been told not to
> enter the city.
>
> Also taking part in the offensive are Kurdish troops, the
> Peshmerga, who've also agreed to stay out of Mosul to avoid
> inflaming ethnic tensions. And then there are Christian militias
> and some Sunni tribesmen.
>
> While this complex mix of vested interests is currently bonded by
> the common goal of destroying IS in Iraq, it could fracture once
> that goal is achieved. For now though the focus remains on
> regaining the momentum of the offensive as elite troops try to
> push forward towards the center of Mosul.
>
> It is heavy going - the IS leadership has had two years to prepare
> for this battle. And it's widely believed to have former Iraqi
> army and intelligence officers in its ranks, with the skills and
> knowledge to exploit the advantage of defending a city of narrow
> streets and with as many as a million people still living there.
> So far they've been using a stream of suicide bombers along with
> well-trained snipers to pin down the Iraqi special forces pushing
> forward street by street.
>
> The troops are taking a lot of casualties and there are reports
> they don't have the back-up they need from units of the regular
> army which have not yet moved inside the city.
>
> It was never going to be easy to dislodge Islamic State from
> Mosul, but unless the militants suddenly collapse or cut and run,
> it looks like it is going to be a long, costly
> battle."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Iraq's government has been bragging that the Iraqi army is going to
strike a blow that will defeat ISIS in Mosul very quickly. Galpin's
point was that Iraq's government is wrong, and also that nobody knows
what's going to happen, except that it will take a long time.
A web site reader posted the following comment with regard to the
situation in Syria: "I like to think I'm well-read and a capable
reader. I don't have a clue as to who's doing what to whom and with
what friends. How I wish America could afford to ignore this rabid dog
fight, but we best not. Trouble is, who has enough mental acuity to
keep all these abbreviations and their cloud-of-dust punch-ups
straight in their minds? I surely don't."
This is an interesting observation, because it illustrates what an
early and confusing stage the Mideast war is at, before it's
completely clear who is fighting whom. When you think of WW II, you
think of huge armies and navies from Germany, Japan, Russia, Britain,
the US, and so forth. But the Mideast wars haven't yet reached that
state. You have small tribes and militias fighting each other in what
might be called "mini-wars" -- whether in Syria, Iraq, Yemen or Libya.
National governments are trying their best to stay out of these
mini-wars, except to provide weapons or money. Iran and Saudi Arabia
are on opposite sides of wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, but one cannot
at this time say that Iran and Saudi Arabia are at war.
In this generational Crisis era, that situation can't last forever.
New generations of nationalistic, xenophobic young men are growing up
in tribes and villages all over the Mideast. They're fighting each
other in these mini-wars, but the number and ferocity of the mini-wars
is growing. At some point, the Saudis will do something that the
Iranians believe requires retaliation, or vice-versa, or maybe it will
start with Pakistan versus India, or China versus Vietnam.
So what's going to happen in Mosul? If the Shia militias enter Mosul,
will they liberate the Sunni residents or will they commit atrocities
again, as they have in the past? Will Turkey decide to intervene to
protect its interests in Mosul and protect the Turkmen citizens? Will
that draw in more Iranian forces?
The fact is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen. This is an
"organic" situation where you have lots of tribal and ethnic groups.
There are commanders directing each of the small groups, but there's
nobody running the whole show. Nobody knows what's going to happen,
because all these groups are increasingly nationalistic, and even they
don't know what they're going to do.
The good news is that, for the time being, these mini-wars don't
affect us (unless you have friends or family in the region). The bad
news is that these mini-wars are going to coalesce and become larger,
and other nations will be forced to choose which side they want to be
on. And then there will be a full-scale Mideast war -- Sunni versus
Shia, Arab versus Jew, and ethnic group versus ethnic group. BBC and
Reuters
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Iran, Shia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Human Rights Watch, BBC, Richard Galpin, Najim al-Jibouri
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey
- The chaotic operation to liberate Mosul
****
**** Iraq sending Shia militias to Mosul, directly violating promise to Turkey
****
Shia militia carrying Iranian billboard (Anadolu)
Iraq's parliament on Saturday voted overwhelmingly to allow
Iran-backed Shia militias to take part in the military operation to
recapture Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh).
The vote was apparently 208 to zero. That's because all the Sunni
lawmakers boycotted the vote in protest, while all the Shia lawmakers
voted overwhelmingly in favor. The parliament has 328 seats.
Mosul is a city of close to a million people, mostly Sunni Muslims.
They're well aware that Shia militias are accused of atrocities
committed against Sunni residents of towns that Shia militias have
previously liberated from ISIS. According to a January report by
Human Rights Watch:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Members of Shia militias, who the Iraqi government
> has included among its state forces, abducted and killed scores of
> Sunni residents in a central Iraq town and demolished Sunni homes,
> stores, and mosques following January 11, 2016 bombings claimed by
> the extremist group Islamic State, also known as ISIS. None of
> those responsible have been brought to justice."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
For this reason, Turkey has predicted a sectarian war if Shia militias
are part of the force sent to liberate Mosul, and has demanded that
the Iraqi army alone liberate Mosul, a condition to which Iraq has
previously agreed. But now Iraq has apparently reneged on that
commitment.
Mosul is a historically Sunni city and was part of the Ottoman empire,
and any attempt to change is demographic composition would be a direct
threat to Turkey's security. The concern is that the population would
be diluted by Kurds or by Shia Muslims coming from Iran. Turkey would
consider that to be a threat to its security. Middle East Monitor and AP and Human Rights Watch (31-Jan-2016) and NRT TV (Kurdish)
Related Articles
- Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation (18-Oct-2016)
- Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq (25-Oct-2016)
- Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS (11-Jun-2014)
****
**** The chaotic operation to liberate Mosul
****
BBC news reporter Richard Galpin last week drove to the front line in
Mosul along with one of the Iraqi army's top generals Najim
al-Jibouri. Here are some excerpts from his report:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"On the way there we saw that Shia militias, not the
> Iraqi army, were manning checkpoints in areas taken back from the
> IS militants.
>
> The militias have a controversial history. Some have been accused
> in the past of committing atrocities against Sunni Muslims. Now
> they're an integral part of the offensive on Mosul, which is a
> majority Sunni Muslim city - although they have been told not to
> enter the city.
>
> Also taking part in the offensive are Kurdish troops, the
> Peshmerga, who've also agreed to stay out of Mosul to avoid
> inflaming ethnic tensions. And then there are Christian militias
> and some Sunni tribesmen.
>
> While this complex mix of vested interests is currently bonded by
> the common goal of destroying IS in Iraq, it could fracture once
> that goal is achieved. For now though the focus remains on
> regaining the momentum of the offensive as elite troops try to
> push forward towards the center of Mosul.
>
> It is heavy going - the IS leadership has had two years to prepare
> for this battle. And it's widely believed to have former Iraqi
> army and intelligence officers in its ranks, with the skills and
> knowledge to exploit the advantage of defending a city of narrow
> streets and with as many as a million people still living there.
> So far they've been using a stream of suicide bombers along with
> well-trained snipers to pin down the Iraqi special forces pushing
> forward street by street.
>
> The troops are taking a lot of casualties and there are reports
> they don't have the back-up they need from units of the regular
> army which have not yet moved inside the city.
>
> It was never going to be easy to dislodge Islamic State from
> Mosul, but unless the militants suddenly collapse or cut and run,
> it looks like it is going to be a long, costly
> battle."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Iraq's government has been bragging that the Iraqi army is going to
strike a blow that will defeat ISIS in Mosul very quickly. Galpin's
point was that Iraq's government is wrong, and also that nobody knows
what's going to happen, except that it will take a long time.
A web site reader posted the following comment with regard to the
situation in Syria: "I like to think I'm well-read and a capable
reader. I don't have a clue as to who's doing what to whom and with
what friends. How I wish America could afford to ignore this rabid dog
fight, but we best not. Trouble is, who has enough mental acuity to
keep all these abbreviations and their cloud-of-dust punch-ups
straight in their minds? I surely don't."
This is an interesting observation, because it illustrates what an
early and confusing stage the Mideast war is at, before it's
completely clear who is fighting whom. When you think of WW II, you
think of huge armies and navies from Germany, Japan, Russia, Britain,
the US, and so forth. But the Mideast wars haven't yet reached that
state. You have small tribes and militias fighting each other in what
might be called "mini-wars" -- whether in Syria, Iraq, Yemen or Libya.
National governments are trying their best to stay out of these
mini-wars, except to provide weapons or money. Iran and Saudi Arabia
are on opposite sides of wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, but one cannot
at this time say that Iran and Saudi Arabia are at war.
In this generational Crisis era, that situation can't last forever.
New generations of nationalistic, xenophobic young men are growing up
in tribes and villages all over the Mideast. They're fighting each
other in these mini-wars, but the number and ferocity of the mini-wars
is growing. At some point, the Saudis will do something that the
Iranians believe requires retaliation, or vice-versa, or maybe it will
start with Pakistan versus India, or China versus Vietnam.
So what's going to happen in Mosul? If the Shia militias enter Mosul,
will they liberate the Sunni residents or will they commit atrocities
again, as they have in the past? Will Turkey decide to intervene to
protect its interests in Mosul and protect the Turkmen citizens? Will
that draw in more Iranian forces?
The fact is that nobody has a clue what's going to happen. This is an
"organic" situation where you have lots of tribal and ethnic groups.
There are commanders directing each of the small groups, but there's
nobody running the whole show. Nobody knows what's going to happen,
because all these groups are increasingly nationalistic, and even they
don't know what they're going to do.
The good news is that, for the time being, these mini-wars don't
affect us (unless you have friends or family in the region). The bad
news is that these mini-wars are going to coalesce and become larger,
and other nations will be forced to choose which side they want to be
on. And then there will be a full-scale Mideast war -- Sunni versus
Shia, Arab versus Jew, and ethnic group versus ethnic group. BBC and
Reuters
Related Articles
- Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS (20-Oct-2016)
- Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul from ISIS (30-Oct-2016)
- In repeat of Mosul disaster, Iraqi army abandoned US weapons in Ramadi (20-May-2015)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Iran, Shia,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Human Rights Watch, BBC, Richard Galpin, Najim al-Jibouri
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
