Realigning elections usually occur in the wake of multiple landslide losses. After the landslide loses to FDR and the near-landslide loss to Truman (it would have been a landslide loss by Dewey had it not been for the third-party candidacy of racist Strom Thurmond), the Republican nominee worked heavily on the mining-and-ranching states and some others to give a chance to Dwight Eisenhower. Many states that had been fairly-reliable D states before 1952 became reliable in all but 60-40 blowouts by the Democratic nominee for a long time. Among those states were Arizona, Oklahoma, Utah, and Virginia.
After three blowout losses to Republican nominees for President, Democrats started working on states that had generally gone R in Presidential elections as late as 1976. Clinton still picked up some Southern states, but just look at all the states that Clinton won that Carter lost.
These three Democratic wins involve the "New South" -- the South between the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the completion of the success of the Southern Strategy.
1992 is about as clearly a Realignment election as any in the lifetimes of any reader of these forums unless one is very old. Few saw 1992 coming, and the 1992 election looked very different from that of 1976.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1964&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=4;;3&AK=2;;5&AZ=2;;3&AR=1;;5&CA=4;;1&CO=2;;3&CT=4;;1&DE=1;;5&DC=1;;5&FL=2;;3&GA=2;;3&HI=1;;5&ID=2;;5&IL=4;;1&IN=2;;5&IA=4;;1&KS=2;;5&KY=1;;5&LA=1;;5&MD=1;;5&MA=1;;5;&MI=4;;1&MN=1;;5&MS=4;;3&MO=1;;5&MT=2;;3&NV=4;;1&NH=4;;1&NJ=4;;1&NM=4;;1&NY=1;;5&NC=4;;3&ND=2;;5&OH=1;;5&OK=2;;5&OR=4;;1&PA=1;;5&RI=1;;5&SC=4;;3&SD=2;;5&TN=1;;5&TX=4;;3&UT=2;;5&VT=4;;1&VA=2;;5&WA=4;;1&WV=1;;5&WI=1;;5&WY=2;;5&ME=4;;1&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=2;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
It's not a perfect match (there was a third-party nominee getting lots of votes), but I am showing the one Carter win to the two (Bill) Clinton wins:
Ford, Bush, Dole -- blue
Carter, Clinton once -- pale blue
Carter, Clinton never -- yellow
Ford -- but Clinton twice -- white
Carter, Clinton twice -- red
There might be further realignment as Republicans worked the Mountain and Deep South to pull them reliably into the Republican camp. But that looks complete.
If anyone has any doubt that the Presidential Election of 1976 is ancient history for all practical purposes:
Carter 1976, Obama 2008/2012
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;5]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2004&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=4;;3&AK=2;;5&AZ=2;;5&AR=4;;3&CA=4;;1&CO=4;;1&CT=4;;1&DE=1;;5&DC=1;;5&FL=1;;5&GA=4;;3&HI=1;;5&ID=2;;5&IL=4;;1&IN=2;;3&IA=4;;1&KS=2;;5&KY=4;;3&LA=4;;3&MD=1;;5&MA=1;;5;&MI=4;;1&MN=1;;5&MS=4;;3&MO=4;;3&MT=2;;5&NV=4;;1&NH=4;;1&NJ=4;;1&NM=4;;1&NY=1;;5&NC=1;;3&ND=2;;5&OH=1;;5&OK=2;;5&OR=4;;1&PA=1;;5&RI=1;;5&SC=4;;3&SD=2;;5&TN=4;;3&TX=4;;3&UT=2;;5&VT=4;;1&VA=4;;1&WA=4;;1&WV=4;;3&WI=1;;5&WY=2;;5&ME=4;;1&ME1=4;1;1&ME2=4;1;1&NE=2;;5&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;3&NE3=2;1;5)
Carter 1976, Obama twice red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue
Just look at all the states in yellow and white.
After three blowout losses to Republican nominees for President, Democrats started working on states that had generally gone R in Presidential elections as late as 1976. Clinton still picked up some Southern states, but just look at all the states that Clinton won that Carter lost.
These three Democratic wins involve the "New South" -- the South between the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the completion of the success of the Southern Strategy.
1992 is about as clearly a Realignment election as any in the lifetimes of any reader of these forums unless one is very old. Few saw 1992 coming, and the 1992 election looked very different from that of 1976.
It's not a perfect match (there was a third-party nominee getting lots of votes), but I am showing the one Carter win to the two (Bill) Clinton wins:
Ford, Bush, Dole -- blue
Carter, Clinton once -- pale blue
Carter, Clinton never -- yellow
Ford -- but Clinton twice -- white
Carter, Clinton twice -- red
There might be further realignment as Republicans worked the Mountain and Deep South to pull them reliably into the Republican camp. But that looks complete.
If anyone has any doubt that the Presidential Election of 1976 is ancient history for all practical purposes:
Carter 1976, Obama 2008/2012
Carter 1976, Obama twice red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue
Just look at all the states in yellow and white.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
