12-23-2016, 11:53 PM
*** 24-Dec-16 World View -- South Sudan increasingly parallels Syria in genocidal violence
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** UN Security Council fails to impose arms embargo on South Sudan
****
![[Image: g161223b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g161223b.jpg)
UN peacekeeping forces in South Sudan (AP)
Humanitarian organizations are expressing outrage as the United
Nations Security Council failed on Friday to pass a US-sponsored
resolution to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan and placed a
travel ban and asset freeze on three senior South Sudanese leaders.
According to the UNSC rules, for the resolution to pass it would have
required 9 of the 15 members to vote in favor, and none of the 5
permanent members (US, UK, Russia, China, France) to veto it. As it
turned out, those who opposed the measure needed only to abstain,
since there were not 9 votes available to pass it. Japan, Russia,
China, Angola, Malaysia, Venezuela, Egypt and Senegal all abstained.
South Sudan is the world's youngest nation, having gained independence
from Sudan in 2011. The region's last generational crisis war was an
ethnic war mainly between two tribes, the Nuer and the Dinka. That
war climaxed with the "Bor Massacre," which began on November 15,
1991. The Nuer army marched toward the provincial capital Bor and
massacred the people of the Dinka tribe. Over the next three months,
2,000 civilians were killed, thousands more wounded, and at least
100,000 people fled the area. Famine followed the massacre, as
looters burnt villages and raided cattle, resulting in the deaths of
25,000 more from starvation.
A new conflict began on December 15, 2013, led by the president Salva
Kiir, of the Dinka tribe, fighting against forces led by vice
president Riek Machar, of the Nuer tribe. Kiir and Machar signed a
peace agreement in August 2015, but that did little good.
Human Rights Watch is expressing outrage that the UNSC resolution
failed to pass. According to HRW, both sides have been importing
weapons and using them to fight the other side. HRW says that African
Union and UN investigators have documented war crimes, including
killings and rape of civilians, and forced recruitment of children by
the warring parties in South Sudan. In the last few months there has
been an increase in incitement to violence, hate speech by senior
leaders, and targeting of civilians, sometimes based on ethnicity.
United Nations officials had been calling for the arms embargo and
also an injection of peacekeeping forces, saying that South Sudan is
getting closer and closer to a "Rwanda-like genocide." However,
they've been saying that for months, and no Rwanda-like genocide has
occurred, largely because South Sudan is in a generational Awakening
era. not in a Crisis era, which would be required for a Rwanda-like
genocide to occur.
Earlier this year, the Security Council adopted a resolution
authorizing 4,000 troops from African nations to join 12,000
U.N. peacekeeping forces there. However, South Sudan's president
Salva Kiir rejected the peacekeeping troops to enter the country,
saying that he would fight them as if they were an invading army.
Those peacekeepers who did serve in South Sudan were withdrawn in the
summer, after they were accused of failing to protect civilians from
rape and sexual violence.
As an aside, you may wonder why decades of international aid to Africa
has failed to have any effect whatsoever on poverty. The situation in
South Sudan provides a good illustration of what happens. Usually the
international aid goes into foreign bank accounts of leaders, but
otherwise it's spent on weapons to kill, rape and torture people
opposing the leaders. Reuters and Human Rights Watch and NPR (11-Nov)
Related Articles
****
**** Leaders of South Sudan and Syria following parallel paths to genocide
****
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Syria and South Sudan
are in very similar generational eras, with leaders who are behaving
in similar ways.
South Sudan's last generational crisis war was an ethnic civil war
between the Dinka versus the Nuer tribes, climaxing with the Bor
Massacre in November, 1991, as described above. The Bor Massacre
stands as a defining moment in the history of South Sudan. It was so
shocking that it largely ended the war.
Syria's last generational crisis war was a religious/ethnic civil war
between the Shia Alawites versus the Sunnis. That war climaxed in
February 1982 with the destruction of the town of Hama. There had
been a massive uprising of the 400,000 mostly Sunni citizens of Hama
against Syria's Shia/Alawite president Hafez al-Assad, the current
president's father. He turned the town to rubble and killed or
displaced hundreds of thousands. Hama stands as a defining moment in
the Middle East. It was so shocking that it largely ended the war.
So both Syria and South Sudan today are in generational Awakening
eras, as the first generation of children growing up after the
previous crisis civil war come of age. These children did not
personally experience the wars, but they listened to stories of how
the other side committed massacres and rapes while their fathers were
heroes who endured despite those atrocities. The children never hear
about how their fathers also committed atrocities and rapes.
Another parallel between Syria and South Sudan is that the wars depend
on outside intervention, almost to the point of being a proxy war. In
South Sudan, Kiir is receiving military aid from Uganda, while Machar
is receiving military aid from (northern) Sudan. In Syria, Bashar
al-Assad is receiving military aid from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah,
while different opposition groups are receiving military aid from
Turkey and from Salafist groups in Saudi Arabia.
From a theoretical point of view, when a country goes through a civil
war that's also a generational crisis war, then as the first post-war
generation grows up, the leaders become increasingly oppressive and
violent towards peaceful opponents (usually a different religious or
ethnic group), and use as an excuse the claim that they might start
another civil war (which is almost impossible during a generational
Awakening era). This is a generational pattern that's followed over
and over, in country after country, throughout history.
What we're seeing in both Syria and South Sudan is a familiar pattern
that I've described many times in countries like Burundi, Thailand,
and Zimbabwe, starting 5-15 years after the climax of a generational
ethnic crisis war. The leadership in the country, which represents
one ethnic tribe or group, decides that in order to prevent a new
civil war, it's necessary to impose "security" by having the security
forces commit atrocities against the other ethnic group.
There's a wide spectrum of violence of this type. In Thailand,
there's been sporadic violence by the army, backing the "yellow shirt"
market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite minority against the
the "red shirt" dark-skinned Thai-Thai indigenous ethnics, but so far
the violence hasn't been too serious.
In South Sudan, possibly the biggest driver of the war is not ethnic
differences but oil. South Sudan has a wealth of oil, and all the
warring parties would like to control as much of that oil as they can.
A particularly interesting example of this is China, which is heavily
invested in South Sudan and is supporting Salva Kiir. Chinese
officials scream bloody murder when anyone complains about their
massacring of Tibetans, saying that no one has the right to interfere
in their internal affairs, but China has no hesitation to interfere in
other countries' internal affairs when their own interests are a
stake.
Another parallel between Syria and South Sudan is that as genocide by
the countries' leaders continues right under the noses of everyone in
the world, the United Nations is powerless to do anything about it
because the two nations that fully support massacres, rapes, genocides
and other atrocities are Russia and China, and they have veto power in
the UN Security Council.
In Syria and South Sudan, in contrast to Thailand, the violence is
reaching the highest levels, approaching full-scale genocide. What
makes this difference from a crisis civil war is that in the latter
case, the violence is "organic", in that it comes from the people and
cannot be stopped. In the case of Awakening era genocide, the
violence could be stopped simply if the leader stopped massacring the
opposition tribes, or if outside countries would stop supporting the
genocidal acts. NPR and Sudan Tribune and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Sudan, Dinka, Nuer, Bor Massacre,
Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, China
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- UN Security Council fails to impose arms embargo on South Sudan
- Leaders of South Sudan and Syria following parallel paths to genocide
****
**** UN Security Council fails to impose arms embargo on South Sudan
****
UN peacekeeping forces in South Sudan (AP)
Humanitarian organizations are expressing outrage as the United
Nations Security Council failed on Friday to pass a US-sponsored
resolution to impose an arms embargo on South Sudan and placed a
travel ban and asset freeze on three senior South Sudanese leaders.
According to the UNSC rules, for the resolution to pass it would have
required 9 of the 15 members to vote in favor, and none of the 5
permanent members (US, UK, Russia, China, France) to veto it. As it
turned out, those who opposed the measure needed only to abstain,
since there were not 9 votes available to pass it. Japan, Russia,
China, Angola, Malaysia, Venezuela, Egypt and Senegal all abstained.
South Sudan is the world's youngest nation, having gained independence
from Sudan in 2011. The region's last generational crisis war was an
ethnic war mainly between two tribes, the Nuer and the Dinka. That
war climaxed with the "Bor Massacre," which began on November 15,
1991. The Nuer army marched toward the provincial capital Bor and
massacred the people of the Dinka tribe. Over the next three months,
2,000 civilians were killed, thousands more wounded, and at least
100,000 people fled the area. Famine followed the massacre, as
looters burnt villages and raided cattle, resulting in the deaths of
25,000 more from starvation.
A new conflict began on December 15, 2013, led by the president Salva
Kiir, of the Dinka tribe, fighting against forces led by vice
president Riek Machar, of the Nuer tribe. Kiir and Machar signed a
peace agreement in August 2015, but that did little good.
Human Rights Watch is expressing outrage that the UNSC resolution
failed to pass. According to HRW, both sides have been importing
weapons and using them to fight the other side. HRW says that African
Union and UN investigators have documented war crimes, including
killings and rape of civilians, and forced recruitment of children by
the warring parties in South Sudan. In the last few months there has
been an increase in incitement to violence, hate speech by senior
leaders, and targeting of civilians, sometimes based on ethnicity.
United Nations officials had been calling for the arms embargo and
also an injection of peacekeeping forces, saying that South Sudan is
getting closer and closer to a "Rwanda-like genocide." However,
they've been saying that for months, and no Rwanda-like genocide has
occurred, largely because South Sudan is in a generational Awakening
era. not in a Crisis era, which would be required for a Rwanda-like
genocide to occur.
Earlier this year, the Security Council adopted a resolution
authorizing 4,000 troops from African nations to join 12,000
U.N. peacekeeping forces there. However, South Sudan's president
Salva Kiir rejected the peacekeeping troops to enter the country,
saying that he would fight them as if they were an invading army.
Those peacekeepers who did serve in South Sudan were withdrawn in the
summer, after they were accused of failing to protect civilians from
rape and sexual violence.
As an aside, you may wonder why decades of international aid to Africa
has failed to have any effect whatsoever on poverty. The situation in
South Sudan provides a good illustration of what happens. Usually the
international aid goes into foreign bank accounts of leaders, but
otherwise it's spent on weapons to kill, rape and torture people
opposing the leaders. Reuters and Human Rights Watch and NPR (11-Nov)
Related Articles
- The African Union proposes an all-African peacekeeping force for South Sudan (20-Jul-2016)
- Generational history of South Sudan and Dinka-Nuer clashes (11-Jul-2016)
- U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads (19-Dec-2013)
****
**** Leaders of South Sudan and Syria following parallel paths to genocide
****
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Syria and South Sudan
are in very similar generational eras, with leaders who are behaving
in similar ways.
South Sudan's last generational crisis war was an ethnic civil war
between the Dinka versus the Nuer tribes, climaxing with the Bor
Massacre in November, 1991, as described above. The Bor Massacre
stands as a defining moment in the history of South Sudan. It was so
shocking that it largely ended the war.
Syria's last generational crisis war was a religious/ethnic civil war
between the Shia Alawites versus the Sunnis. That war climaxed in
February 1982 with the destruction of the town of Hama. There had
been a massive uprising of the 400,000 mostly Sunni citizens of Hama
against Syria's Shia/Alawite president Hafez al-Assad, the current
president's father. He turned the town to rubble and killed or
displaced hundreds of thousands. Hama stands as a defining moment in
the Middle East. It was so shocking that it largely ended the war.
So both Syria and South Sudan today are in generational Awakening
eras, as the first generation of children growing up after the
previous crisis civil war come of age. These children did not
personally experience the wars, but they listened to stories of how
the other side committed massacres and rapes while their fathers were
heroes who endured despite those atrocities. The children never hear
about how their fathers also committed atrocities and rapes.
Another parallel between Syria and South Sudan is that the wars depend
on outside intervention, almost to the point of being a proxy war. In
South Sudan, Kiir is receiving military aid from Uganda, while Machar
is receiving military aid from (northern) Sudan. In Syria, Bashar
al-Assad is receiving military aid from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah,
while different opposition groups are receiving military aid from
Turkey and from Salafist groups in Saudi Arabia.
From a theoretical point of view, when a country goes through a civil
war that's also a generational crisis war, then as the first post-war
generation grows up, the leaders become increasingly oppressive and
violent towards peaceful opponents (usually a different religious or
ethnic group), and use as an excuse the claim that they might start
another civil war (which is almost impossible during a generational
Awakening era). This is a generational pattern that's followed over
and over, in country after country, throughout history.
What we're seeing in both Syria and South Sudan is a familiar pattern
that I've described many times in countries like Burundi, Thailand,
and Zimbabwe, starting 5-15 years after the climax of a generational
ethnic crisis war. The leadership in the country, which represents
one ethnic tribe or group, decides that in order to prevent a new
civil war, it's necessary to impose "security" by having the security
forces commit atrocities against the other ethnic group.
There's a wide spectrum of violence of this type. In Thailand,
there's been sporadic violence by the army, backing the "yellow shirt"
market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite minority against the
the "red shirt" dark-skinned Thai-Thai indigenous ethnics, but so far
the violence hasn't been too serious.
In South Sudan, possibly the biggest driver of the war is not ethnic
differences but oil. South Sudan has a wealth of oil, and all the
warring parties would like to control as much of that oil as they can.
A particularly interesting example of this is China, which is heavily
invested in South Sudan and is supporting Salva Kiir. Chinese
officials scream bloody murder when anyone complains about their
massacring of Tibetans, saying that no one has the right to interfere
in their internal affairs, but China has no hesitation to interfere in
other countries' internal affairs when their own interests are a
stake.
Another parallel between Syria and South Sudan is that as genocide by
the countries' leaders continues right under the noses of everyone in
the world, the United Nations is powerless to do anything about it
because the two nations that fully support massacres, rapes, genocides
and other atrocities are Russia and China, and they have veto power in
the UN Security Council.
In Syria and South Sudan, in contrast to Thailand, the violence is
reaching the highest levels, approaching full-scale genocide. What
makes this difference from a crisis civil war is that in the latter
case, the violence is "organic", in that it comes from the people and
cannot be stopped. In the case of Awakening era genocide, the
violence could be stopped simply if the leader stopped massacring the
opposition tribes, or if outside countries would stop supporting the
genocidal acts. NPR and Sudan Tribune and Al Jazeera
Related Articles
- Japan's troops in South Sudan become first test of new 'collective self-defense' policy (19-Nov-2016)
- Uganda and China intervene in South Sudan conflict (10-Jan-2014)
- Uganda enters the war in South Sudan (18-Jan-2014)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Sudan, Dinka, Nuer, Bor Massacre,
Salva Kiir, Riek Machar, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, China
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
