05-25-2016, 09:37 PM
*** 26-May-16 World View -- China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China
****
![[Image: g160116b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g160116b.jpg)
Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's new president (Reuters)
Just four days after Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen took office,
she is already facing a major political crisis with China, after a
major election victory in January. ( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election"
)
As I wrote in my January article, Taiwan-China relations are sure to
be tumultuous as soon as Tsai takes office, and that is happening very
quickly.
Since 2008, Taiwan has been governed by the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT)
party, which favors the "one China" principle and unification with
mainland China, and which has fully supported all of China's claims in
the South China Sea.
Tsai is the leader of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),
which in the past has favored Taiwan independence from China. When
the DPP was in power prior to 2008, relations between China and Taiwan
so bad that in 2005 Beijing passed an "anti-secession law" saying that
China would take military action against Taiwan if there were any
moves or speeches in the direction of Taiwan independence from China.
So in Tsai's inauguration speech five days ago, Tsai said that she
"respected" the "common understanding" between Taiwan and China, but
did not say what the common understanding was.
According to Beijing state media, Tsai made "a painful effort not to
answer one important question..., whether or not to acknowledge the
1992 Consensus embodying the one China principle."
According to Beijing:
[indent]<QUOTE>"The current developments across the Taiwan Straits
are becoming complex and grave. ...
Since 2008, the two sides of the Straits, acting on the common
political foundation of adhering to the 1992 Consensus and
opposing "Taiwan independence", have embarked on the path of
peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations. ...
The key to ensuring peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations
lies in adhering to the 1992 Consensus, which constitutes the
political basis of cross-Straits relations. The 1992 Consensus
explicitly sets out the fundamental nature of relations across the
Taiwan Straits. It states that both the Mainland and Taiwan belong
to one and the same China and that cross-Straits relations are not
state-to-state relations. The 1992 Consensus was reached with
explicit authorization of the two sides and has been affirmed by
leaders of both sides. It thus constitutes the cornerstone of
peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations.
We have noted that in her address today, the new leader of the
Taiwan authorities stated that the 1992 talks ... reached some
common understanding, and that she will handle affairs of
cross-Straits relations in keeping with the existing defining
document and related regulations and continue to advance the
peaceful and stable growth of cross-Straits relations on the basis
of the established political foundation.
However, she was ambiguous about the fundamental issue, the nature
of cross-Straits relations, an issue that is of utmost concern to
people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. She did not explicitly
recognize the 1992 Consensus and its core implications, and made
no concrete proposal for ensuring the peaceful and stable growth
of cross-Straits relations. Hence, this is an incomplete test
answer.
A choice of different path leads to different future. This is a
choice between upholding the common political foundation that
embodies the one China principle and pursuing separatist
propositions of "Taiwan independence" such as "two Chinas" or "one
country on each side". This is a choice between staying on the
path of peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations and repeating
the past practice of provoking cross-Straits tension and
instability. And this is a choice between enhancing the affinity
and well-being of people on both sides and severing their blood
ties and undermining their fundamental interests. The Taiwan
authorities must give explicit answer with concrete actions to all
these major questions and face the test of history and the
people. ...
"Taiwan independence" remains the biggest menace to peace across
the Taiwan Straits and the peaceful growth of cross-Straits
relations. Pursuing "Taiwan independence" can in no way bring
peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits. The common will of
people on both sides of the Straits are not to be defied. Today,
we remain as determined as ever to uphold national sovereignty and
territorial integrity and have ever stronger ability to do so. We
will resolutely forestall any separatist moves and plots to pursue
"Taiwan independence" in any form."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Beijing is demanding that "Taiwan must clarify this issue with
practical action and allow the examination of the people and history."
Tsai won the January election overwhelmingly because the people of
Taiwan, especially the younger generations, increasingly identify as
"Taiwanese" rather than "Chinese." The KMT is a party of older
generations.
If Tsai complied with China's demands and unambiguously recognized the
1992 Consensus, there would probably be anti-Chinese "Sunflower
movement" riots in the streets, as there were frequently the last time
the DPP was in power, and those riots will probably overflow into Hong
Kong, where there could be a renewal of anti-Chinese "Umbrella
movement" riots.
So China's demands of Tsai are quite ominous, and the political
situation will be extremely volatile no matter what Tsai decides to
do. China Radio International's English Service and Xinhua
****
**** IMF balks at new European bailout plan for Greece
****
The eurozone finance ministers, meeting in Brussels, announced on
Wednesday morning that they had reached deal to provide a new bailout
to Greece, and also announced that the deal complies with the demands
by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for "debt relief" for Greece,
and that debt relief will be provided by 2018. The new 10.3 billion
euro bailout loan to Greece would allow Greece to make a July 1 debt
repayment and avoid bankruptcy. It's expected that, as in the past,
about one-third of the bailout loan would come from the IMF, which is
funded by the United States and other countries, and two-thirds would
come from eurozone institutions.
The IMF demand for "debt relief" alludes to the fact that Greece can
never pay off its debt. Readers who have been following this issue
for years and years can well remember crisis after crisis, with a
decision each time to "kick the can down the road" by granting Greece
a new bailout loan so that they could use it to avoid immediate
bankruptcy. (This technique is sometimes called "Using your Visa
credit card to pay your Master Card bill.")
However, the IMF announced that for this, the first 2016 crisis, they
would not simply kick the can down the road, but would demand debt
relief. Since most of Greece's 300 billion euro debt is owed to
European Union (eurozone) institutions, the eurozone has it within its
power to reduce Greece's debt so that Greece could one day be
debt-free.
The main opponent of debt relief has always been the Germans,
especially Germany's cranky finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. So
the finance ministers reached a compromise on the debt relief issue,
"extending the repayment period and capping interest rates."
What does that mean? Details were not provided, but speculation was
that interest rates would be close to zero until 2050, and Greece
would not have to repay the debt in full until 2100. By that time
Wolfgang Schäuble would be dead, and indeed so would all the other
finance ministers.
So the finance ministers announced that they'd agreed on debt relief,
and had met the IMF's demands.
However, an IMF official disagreed, saying:
[indent]<QUOTE>"Greece is in a situation where it needs a
disbursement, and so we were certainly willing to concede on some
points. But we have not conceded on the point that we need
adequate assurances regarding debt relief before we go to our
board... I am hopeful we will get there. ...
We are not in the situation where the IMF can say that we're ready
to move ahead. But... given what we have got from the Europeans,
given what they committed to, I'm hopeful that we can get to that
point by the end of the year."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
By the end of the year? It looks like another crisis in the making.
Kathimerini and BBC and AFP
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
KMT, Kuomintang, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party,
Anti-Secession Law,
Greece, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China
- IMF balks at new European bailout plan for Greece
****
**** China demands new Taiwan leader explicitly affirm that Taiwan is part of China
****
Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan's new president (Reuters)
Just four days after Taiwan's new president Tsai Ing-wen took office,
she is already facing a major political crisis with China, after a
major election victory in January. ( "17-Jan-16 World View -- Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election"
)
As I wrote in my January article, Taiwan-China relations are sure to
be tumultuous as soon as Tsai takes office, and that is happening very
quickly.
Since 2008, Taiwan has been governed by the pro-China Kuomintang (KMT)
party, which favors the "one China" principle and unification with
mainland China, and which has fully supported all of China's claims in
the South China Sea.
Tsai is the leader of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),
which in the past has favored Taiwan independence from China. When
the DPP was in power prior to 2008, relations between China and Taiwan
so bad that in 2005 Beijing passed an "anti-secession law" saying that
China would take military action against Taiwan if there were any
moves or speeches in the direction of Taiwan independence from China.
So in Tsai's inauguration speech five days ago, Tsai said that she
"respected" the "common understanding" between Taiwan and China, but
did not say what the common understanding was.
According to Beijing state media, Tsai made "a painful effort not to
answer one important question..., whether or not to acknowledge the
1992 Consensus embodying the one China principle."
According to Beijing:
[indent]<QUOTE>"The current developments across the Taiwan Straits
are becoming complex and grave. ...
Since 2008, the two sides of the Straits, acting on the common
political foundation of adhering to the 1992 Consensus and
opposing "Taiwan independence", have embarked on the path of
peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations. ...
The key to ensuring peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations
lies in adhering to the 1992 Consensus, which constitutes the
political basis of cross-Straits relations. The 1992 Consensus
explicitly sets out the fundamental nature of relations across the
Taiwan Straits. It states that both the Mainland and Taiwan belong
to one and the same China and that cross-Straits relations are not
state-to-state relations. The 1992 Consensus was reached with
explicit authorization of the two sides and has been affirmed by
leaders of both sides. It thus constitutes the cornerstone of
peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations.
We have noted that in her address today, the new leader of the
Taiwan authorities stated that the 1992 talks ... reached some
common understanding, and that she will handle affairs of
cross-Straits relations in keeping with the existing defining
document and related regulations and continue to advance the
peaceful and stable growth of cross-Straits relations on the basis
of the established political foundation.
However, she was ambiguous about the fundamental issue, the nature
of cross-Straits relations, an issue that is of utmost concern to
people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. She did not explicitly
recognize the 1992 Consensus and its core implications, and made
no concrete proposal for ensuring the peaceful and stable growth
of cross-Straits relations. Hence, this is an incomplete test
answer.
A choice of different path leads to different future. This is a
choice between upholding the common political foundation that
embodies the one China principle and pursuing separatist
propositions of "Taiwan independence" such as "two Chinas" or "one
country on each side". This is a choice between staying on the
path of peaceful growth of cross-Straits relations and repeating
the past practice of provoking cross-Straits tension and
instability. And this is a choice between enhancing the affinity
and well-being of people on both sides and severing their blood
ties and undermining their fundamental interests. The Taiwan
authorities must give explicit answer with concrete actions to all
these major questions and face the test of history and the
people. ...
"Taiwan independence" remains the biggest menace to peace across
the Taiwan Straits and the peaceful growth of cross-Straits
relations. Pursuing "Taiwan independence" can in no way bring
peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits. The common will of
people on both sides of the Straits are not to be defied. Today,
we remain as determined as ever to uphold national sovereignty and
territorial integrity and have ever stronger ability to do so. We
will resolutely forestall any separatist moves and plots to pursue
"Taiwan independence" in any form."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Beijing is demanding that "Taiwan must clarify this issue with
practical action and allow the examination of the people and history."
Tsai won the January election overwhelmingly because the people of
Taiwan, especially the younger generations, increasingly identify as
"Taiwanese" rather than "Chinese." The KMT is a party of older
generations.
If Tsai complied with China's demands and unambiguously recognized the
1992 Consensus, there would probably be anti-Chinese "Sunflower
movement" riots in the streets, as there were frequently the last time
the DPP was in power, and those riots will probably overflow into Hong
Kong, where there could be a renewal of anti-Chinese "Umbrella
movement" riots.
So China's demands of Tsai are quite ominous, and the political
situation will be extremely volatile no matter what Tsai decides to
do. China Radio International's English Service and Xinhua
****
**** IMF balks at new European bailout plan for Greece
****
The eurozone finance ministers, meeting in Brussels, announced on
Wednesday morning that they had reached deal to provide a new bailout
to Greece, and also announced that the deal complies with the demands
by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for "debt relief" for Greece,
and that debt relief will be provided by 2018. The new 10.3 billion
euro bailout loan to Greece would allow Greece to make a July 1 debt
repayment and avoid bankruptcy. It's expected that, as in the past,
about one-third of the bailout loan would come from the IMF, which is
funded by the United States and other countries, and two-thirds would
come from eurozone institutions.
The IMF demand for "debt relief" alludes to the fact that Greece can
never pay off its debt. Readers who have been following this issue
for years and years can well remember crisis after crisis, with a
decision each time to "kick the can down the road" by granting Greece
a new bailout loan so that they could use it to avoid immediate
bankruptcy. (This technique is sometimes called "Using your Visa
credit card to pay your Master Card bill.")
However, the IMF announced that for this, the first 2016 crisis, they
would not simply kick the can down the road, but would demand debt
relief. Since most of Greece's 300 billion euro debt is owed to
European Union (eurozone) institutions, the eurozone has it within its
power to reduce Greece's debt so that Greece could one day be
debt-free.
The main opponent of debt relief has always been the Germans,
especially Germany's cranky finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. So
the finance ministers reached a compromise on the debt relief issue,
"extending the repayment period and capping interest rates."
What does that mean? Details were not provided, but speculation was
that interest rates would be close to zero until 2050, and Greece
would not have to repay the debt in full until 2100. By that time
Wolfgang Schäuble would be dead, and indeed so would all the other
finance ministers.
So the finance ministers announced that they'd agreed on debt relief,
and had met the IMF's demands.
However, an IMF official disagreed, saying:
[indent]<QUOTE>"Greece is in a situation where it needs a
disbursement, and so we were certainly willing to concede on some
points. But we have not conceded on the point that we need
adequate assurances regarding debt relief before we go to our
board... I am hopeful we will get there. ...
We are not in the situation where the IMF can say that we're ready
to move ahead. But... given what we have got from the Europeans,
given what they committed to, I'm hopeful that we can get to that
point by the end of the year."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
By the end of the year? It looks like another crisis in the making.
Kathimerini and BBC and AFP
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
KMT, Kuomintang, DPP, Democratic Progressive Party,
Anti-Secession Law,
Greece, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
