Party realignment ending or just starting?

[Kinser79]

(05-25-2016, 01:31 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Coming from a turning perspective, I would expect a progressive party to work a transforming agenda that attacks the basic problems of the crisis.

As I've stated elsewhere, the formulation that gets the 'progressive' mantle is whichever formulation 'wins' the 4T. As it stands both parties have some form of solution what matters is who is going to win.

 

Quote:As I see us still in a stagnant bickering phase, this hasn't happened yet, the lessons learned from the crisis are yet unlearned, thus any realignment should be judged tentative at this point.

Other turnings have a micro-turning structure, and previous 4Ts also had one. If one can argue that the micro-1T started sometime between 2005 and 2008 then a micro-2T should happen at the latest 2013 (assuming a rigid 5 year micro-turning). As I've argued in the past the 4T was catalyzed in 2005 with Katrina and began when economic troubles started around late 2006 or 2007 in the Real Economy (Wall Street has lag time). This would mean that a micro-2T starting between 2010 or 2011 would be right on time. This would lead to a micro-3T starting sometime around 2016 and this would explain why you see a "stagnant bickering phase".

Quote:If the transforming party are the victors able to write history books, the opposition would be screaming and clinging to old wisdom through the crisis.

Yes, and one party is running a Status Quo candidate. I'll give you a hint it isn't the Republicans. This is why I'm convinced that HRC must lose the election, maintaining the status quo will only serve to prolong the 4T much like Obama's policies have prolonged the Great Depression 2.0.

 

Quote:At some point in the 1T the flaws in the new transformed culture become clear enough that a new opposition platform should arrive to oppose the dominant post-crisis establishment.  Another turning down streams and a new bunch of prophets might voice their opinions.  There's a possibility of another realignment then.

Generally speaking realignments happen in 4Ts and 2Ts. There was a realignment during the 2T just past which resulted in the so-called Reagan Revolution and the desertion of the Democratic Party from its working class base and lead to Bill Clinton though he was preceded by a rather weak Carter in that area.

Quote:But I'm not seeing a classic 4T pattern yet.  I'm not entirely sure the need to transform will reach a critical mass.

I'm seeing it quite clearly. Of course I also subscribe to many addenda to traditional S&H theory, most notably megasaeculums and micro-turnings.