05-26-2016, 06:18 PM
(05-26-2016, 12:54 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: With the likely exception of the first one, realigning elections have always come in each 2T and 4T, and usually somewhere near the beginning. If we agree with mikebert's choice, iirc, of these elections: 1800, 1828, 1860, 1896, 1932, 1968 and 2008, then the realignment has already come in 2008. What could happen is a further election that further cements the change; as in 1980, and maybe 1936, 1912, 1868, 1844, 1820, etc.
Come to think of it, 1800 didn't really realign the parties; that had happened in 1792-96. It was just one party taking over from the other, a party which was destined to disappear. It was the same alignment, the original one; Jeffersonian Democrats vs. Adams' Federalists. So 1800 was a "cementing" election like 1980.
Realignments don't always finish at or near where they start. In my opinion, the transition from the Fifth to Sixth Party System started in the late 1960s (early 2T), but didn't finish until well into the 1990s (early-mid 3T). I would expect the same out of the realignment from the Sixth to the Seventh (if it has indeed started).
This might be worthy of a S&H-related thread if I think about it more, but I don't have the time right now.
