The first four states to be polled since the November election all went for Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is making no gains among potential voters in four states that he lost. Two polls are of New York State, one of New Jersey, and one of recent swing-state Virginia. The second poll of New York state is the one that I go with.
First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.
President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)
https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-d...aseID=2408
Quinnipiac, Virginia , conducted Dec 6-11
https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-det...aseID=2412
Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%
Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:
https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/relea...aseID=2413
Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%
By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14
I didn't expect a poll of Maryland, not that it contradicts anything that polls of New York, New Jersey, and Virginia already say.
First, the incumbent Republican Governor is doing very well in a deep-blue (Atlas Red) state: 74% approval! Fiscal conservative, but basically non-ideological... we could use much of that anywhere.
Second -- Donald Trump is deep underwater in approval -- 30% favorable (combined "somewhat" and "strongly" favorable) and 56% unfavorable -- with 48% seeing him as "strongly unfavorable".
http://2qtvrz46wjcg34jx1h1blgd2.wpengine...y-2017.pdf
To be sure, New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland do not constitute or even contain a state easily described as a microcosm of America. I am more interested in Obama-Trump states for now. I'm guessing that if states from Virginia to Maine were to have their say on Donald Trump, then he'd be vulnerable to a military coup.
Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;1&AR=0;6;7&CA=0;55;6&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=1;10;9&MA=0;11;6&MI=0;16;2&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;2&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=0;15;2&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Probably our best approximation until about March, when we have policies to discuss more than personality.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;1&AR=0;6;7&CA=0;55;6&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;9&MA=0;11;6&MI=0;16;2&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;2&NJ=0;14;6&NM=0;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=0;15;2&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=0;13;2&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Not likely useful until March.
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
First one: New Jersey. Quinnipiac.
President-elect Donald Trump remains unpopular in New Jersey, with a negative 38 - 51 percent favorability rating. (Obama up 56-35 in approval... guess what sort of Presidential nominee the Democrats will be able to win with in 2020?)
https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-d...aseID=2408
Quinnipiac, Virginia , conducted Dec 6-11
https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-det...aseID=2412
Trump
favorable 39%
unfavorable 53%
Quinnipiac poll of New York, conducted Dec. 13-19:
https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/relea...aseID=2413
Trump:
favorable 31%
unfavorable 59%
By region...
NYC: -46
suburbs: -23
upstate: -14
I didn't expect a poll of Maryland, not that it contradicts anything that polls of New York, New Jersey, and Virginia already say.
First, the incumbent Republican Governor is doing very well in a deep-blue (Atlas Red) state: 74% approval! Fiscal conservative, but basically non-ideological... we could use much of that anywhere.
Second -- Donald Trump is deep underwater in approval -- 30% favorable (combined "somewhat" and "strongly" favorable) and 56% unfavorable -- with 48% seeing him as "strongly unfavorable".
http://2qtvrz46wjcg34jx1h1blgd2.wpengine...y-2017.pdf
To be sure, New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland do not constitute or even contain a state easily described as a microcosm of America. I am more interested in Obama-Trump states for now. I'm guessing that if states from Virginia to Maine were to have their say on Donald Trump, then he'd be vulnerable to a military coup.
Red is for a Democratic advantage, and blue is for a Republican advantage.
Favorability:
Probably our best approximation until about March, when we have policies to discuss more than personality.
Approval:
Not likely useful until March.
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.