Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Jan-17 World View -- Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82
  
• Is Rafsanjani's death a victory for Iran's hardliners?
  

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**** Iran's 'moderate pragmatist' Hashemi Rafsanjani dies at age 82
****


Hashemi Rafsanjani (L) shares a laugh with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, under a photo of the original Supreme Leader, Rouhollah Khomeini. All three fought together in the 1979 revolution.

Iran is mourning the death of 82 year old Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani, born in 1934, and a key figure in Iran's Great Islamic
revolution of 1979. He was jailed several times by the Shah of Iran
during the 1960s-70s for his political activism, and then after the
revolution he became the second most powerful man in Iran, behind
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, who ruled Iran as Supreme Leader until
his death in 1989.

Khomeini's chosen successor was Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, the
current Supreme Leader. After Rafsanjani was passed over for Supreme
Leader, his star began to fade, although he was elected to the
presidency from 1989 to 1997.

Politicians in Iran are generally categorized into three groups:

• At one extreme are the extremely hard-line "principlists," who
  insist on adhering to the "principles" of the 1979 Great Islamic
  Revolution. Khamenei and the other old geezer survivors of the 1979
  revolution are ususally principlists. Generally, they represent the
  older generation, the survivors of the 1979 revolution and the
  Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. They impose strict social laws, such as
  requiring headscarves, forbidding unrelated male-female couples in
  public, no street music in public, and so forth. Many are opposed to
  the nuclear deal, and want to resume nuclear weapons development.
  Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is also in this group.
  
  
• At the other extreme are the "reformists," who are usually members
  of the younger generations that grew up after the revolution. They
  are willing to accept the religious precepts of the revolution, but
  they are demanding that the social restrictions like those described
  above be reversed. Internationally, they can be described as
  pro-Western and even pro-American. They like Western clothes and
  music, and they have nothing against Israel. However, some
  anti-Americanism is increasing because they believe that America has
  reneged on its promises to remove all sanctions after agreement was
  reached on the nuclear deal.
  
  
• In the middle are the "moderates" or "pragmatists," who are often
  as hardline as the principlists, but who are in favor of gradual
  reforms. Internationally, they are opposed to Western and American
  values, but they believe that it's necessary to make some minimal
  concessions, as necessary, to make Iran less isolated. Rafsanjani was
  a moderate, and so is Iran's president Hassan Rouhani.

There was a serious split between Rafsanjani and Khamenei after the
2009 presidential elections, when young people were protesting, and
there was blood running in the streets because Iran's security forces
were massacring students and other protesters. Khamenei wanted the
security forces to be completely unleashed, so they could kill,
torture, rape, jail and bash anyone they wanted, with impunity.
Rafsanjani wanted to permit peaceful protests, and wanted the jailed
protesters to be released. As a result of the split between
Rafsanjani and Khamenei, two of Rafsanjani's children were jailed on
separate charges. Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, got herself
into even more legal trouble while on leave from prison by visiting a
leader of Iran's persecuted Bahai religious minority. Mehr News (Tehran) and BBC (28-May-2016)

Related Articles

• As Iran's election approaches, generational conflict becomes vicious (06-Feb-2016)
  
  
• Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue (09-Nov-2009)
  
  
• Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
  

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**** Is Rafsanjani's death a victory for Iran's hardliners?
****

Many analysts are calling Rafsanjani's death a victory for Khamenei
and the hardline principlists, because he will no longer be able to
exert moderating pressure on them. That's one way of looking at the
situation.

The other way of looking at it is that it's a victory for the young
reformists, because he will no longer be able to exert a moderating
pressure on them. In other words, in this view Rafsanjani was a
powerful buffer between the two extremes, and without him they will
both be free to pursue more radical policies. His death might
even be the trigger for an Awakening era climax.

Generational Dynamics cannot predict short-term politics, but in many
cases it can predict long-term trends, and in this case the long-term
trend is clear. The old hardline geezers are dying off, and the young
reformists are growing in number and gaining power.

As I've pointed out many times, Iranian college students started
holding pro-Western and pro-American protests in the late 1990s, and
continuing into the 2000s. These protests were quashed by Khamenei,
who ordered the security forces to bash any students that expressed
any opposition opinions.

But by the year 2017, those students are now 30-40 years old, and
they're increasingly in positions of power, making reformist decisions
and implementing reformist policies. And by the way, this is also
true within the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps
(IRGC).

By contrast, the old geezer hardliners are dying off or are becoming
senile, and are less and less able to exert decisions as they used to.
Rafsanjani was a moderate and a pragmatist, but he was also
well-respected by everyone, and could influence moderation in both
extremes. Without his moderating influence, we can expect the
generational differences between the reformists and the principlists.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a
generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, characterized
by a "generation gap," and a generational clash between the hardline
survivors of the last generational crisis war (WW II in America's
case) and the generations growing up after that war. This political
clash almost always ends up in a victory for the younger generation,
as the older generation retires and dies off. In America, the
Awakening era climax was the resignation of Richard Nixon, which
signaled a victory of the Boomers over the GI and Silent generations
that had survived WW II. In Iran, no such Awakening era climax has
not yet occurred, but it's 100% certain that it's coming.

As I've been writing for years, Iran, will be the West's allies during
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war. Generational
Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war,
the US, Japan, India, Iran and Russia will be allied again China,
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries. Mehr News and Guardian (London)


Related Articles

• Arab views of Iran nuclear deal (15-Jul-2015)
  
  
• Political crisis in Iran grows over nuclear agreement (09-Nov-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Shah of Iran,
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hassan Rouhani, Faezeh Hashemi, Bahai,
principlists, moderates, reformists

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John J. Xenakis
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