01-31-2017, 01:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-31-2017, 02:01 PM by pbrower2a.
Edit Reason: grammar
)
Quinnipiac, New Jersey. The first APPROVAL poll of any state that does not mention 'the transition'.
https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-d...aseID=2425
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 36% 87% 7% 36% 44% 29% 38% 49%
Disapprove 55 7 88 54 47 63 55 42
DK/NA 9 6 5 11 9 8 6 9
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 34% 29% 38% 42% 48% 39% 43% 20%
Disapprove 61 61 54 48 45 52 49 70
DK/NA 4 11 8 9 7 8 8 10
Sure, it is New Jersey, which is a very sure D state in Presidential races. Donald Trump got 41% of the vote in New Jersey in 2016. The younger the voter, the more likely one is to support President Trump... the only demographic groups for which President Trump aren't under water in New Jersey are white men and whites without college degrees.
New Jersey of course is NOT a microcosm of America, but if the pattern of many people who voted for him in 2016 disapproving of the President that they voted for, then Election Night 2020 could be a rude awakening for the GOP -- perhaps as rude as Election Night 2008. Four percent of the electorate peeling away from the GOP by 2020 means that the Republican nominee (almost certainly an incumbent) gets 42% of the vote. Barring a strong third-party opponent who guts the Democratic vote for President, 42% of the vote is grossly inadequate for winning the Presidency.
People are not warming up to Donald Trump, and people seem not to be defending their vote for him. He is not the new John F. Kennedy, able to win support after a close race for President.
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=2;11;4&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=1;11;9&MI=0;16;2&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;2&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Probably our best approximation until about March.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;1&AR=0;6;7&CA=0;55;9&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=0;11;6&MI=0;16;2&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;2&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=0;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=0;13;2&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;7&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Not likely useful until March.
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
https://poll.qu.edu/new-jersey/release-d...aseID=2425
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
WHITE......
COLLEGE DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Approve 36% 87% 7% 36% 44% 29% 38% 49%
Disapprove 55 7 88 54 47 63 55 42
DK/NA 9 6 5 11 9 8 6 9
AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE.....
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht NonWht
Approve 34% 29% 38% 42% 48% 39% 43% 20%
Disapprove 61 61 54 48 45 52 49 70
DK/NA 4 11 8 9 7 8 8 10
Sure, it is New Jersey, which is a very sure D state in Presidential races. Donald Trump got 41% of the vote in New Jersey in 2016. The younger the voter, the more likely one is to support President Trump... the only demographic groups for which President Trump aren't under water in New Jersey are white men and whites without college degrees.
New Jersey of course is NOT a microcosm of America, but if the pattern of many people who voted for him in 2016 disapproving of the President that they voted for, then Election Night 2020 could be a rude awakening for the GOP -- perhaps as rude as Election Night 2008. Four percent of the electorate peeling away from the GOP by 2020 means that the Republican nominee (almost certainly an incumbent) gets 42% of the vote. Barring a strong third-party opponent who guts the Democratic vote for President, 42% of the vote is grossly inadequate for winning the Presidency.
People are not warming up to Donald Trump, and people seem not to be defending their vote for him. He is not the new John F. Kennedy, able to win support after a close race for President.
Favorability:
Probably our best approximation until about March.
Approval:
Not likely useful until March.
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.