02-12-2017, 11:03 PM
*** 13-Feb-17 World View -- After Syria's so-called ceasefire, tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Hezbollah keeps on fighting, but says it will honor Syria ceasefire
****
![[Image: g170212b.jpg]](http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170212b.jpg)
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah on Sunday (al-Manar)
On Sunday, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, Iran's
puppet terrorist organization, gave a major televised speech to his
followers insisting that Hezbollah fully supported the ceasefire
agreement that had been negotiated three weeks ago by Russia, Iran and
Turkey. He said that he was responding to reports in the Arab press
that there were major disagreements between Iran and Russia, and
claimed that he wanted the forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
to keep on fighting, and to continue to eliminate as much of the Sunni
population as possible. Nasrallah contradicted those reports in his
televised speech:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We [support] an agreement that ends the bloodshed and
> paves way for a national reconciliation [in Syria]. Hezbollah and
> Iran support the ceasefire, the reconciliation, and the political
> settlement in Syria, while some Arab states are still backing the
> military option.
>
> Hezbollah strongly supports, not just the Astana ceasefire, any
> ceasefire agreed upon in Syria [in order to] prevent bloodshed and
> pave the way for political solutions."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Nasrallah was referring to the peace talks that were held last month
in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan.
Nonetheless, there is currently no ceasefire. Hezbollah forces took
the lead in fighting in the region called Wadi Barada in the suburbs
of Damascus, under control of anti-Assad rebels who are theoretically
supposed to be protected by the ceasefire agreement. According to
Nasrallah, Hezbollah is continuing to fight "terrorists" in Syria.
In fact, none of the groups fighting in Syria -- Iran, al-Assad,
Hezbollah, Russia, Turkey -- is honoring the ceasefire. The next
round of peace talks is scheduled for February 20.
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and
the Sunni Muslim countries will be on one side, and the US, Russia,
India and Iran will be on the other side. Reuters and Press TV (Tehran)
Related Articles
****
**** Tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad
****
Reports of disagreements between Russia and Iran began with last
month's Astana peace talks because they didn't go as plan. There was
sharp disagreement over the participation of the United States in the
negotiations, which Russia favored and which Iran considered to be
unacceptable.
The final statement produced by the Astana talks called for a
ceasefire, but no Syrians were party to the statement, as it was
signed only by Turkey, Iran and Russia. The negotiators for the
anti-Assad rebels wouldn't sign it unless it called for al-Assad to
step down. Al-Assad's negotiators wouldn't sign it because they
objected to Turkey's participation, and to Turkish forces in northern
Syria where they're fighting ISIS.
The catalyst for all these disagreements is al-Assad himself. It's
now widely agreed that al-Assad is so divisive that there will never
be peace in Syria as long as he's in power. At the very least, he
would have to step down and be replaced by someone from his own
Alawite clan.
The anti-Assad rebels want him gone. The Turks want him gone too, but
are willing to put up with him if it means an end to the Syrian war.
The Russians want their military bases to lie within a stable Syria,
but they're not tied to al-Assad, and are willing to consider having
him step down at some time in the near future.
But Iran is adamant that al-Assad must stay, and cannot even be
replaced by someone with similar policies. According to one analysis,
the cause springs from the fact that Iran is quite isolated in the
region, as the only Shia Muslim state, but surrounded by Sunni Muslim
and Christian states. Thus, Iran is forced to rely on non-state
alliances -- the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Northern
Alliance in Afghanistan, the Badr Organization in Iraq, Islamic Jihad
in Gaza, and Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad in Syria -- forming the
"Shia Crescent." According to this analysis, if Iran is not
completely loyal to al-Assad, then all the other non-state groups in
its coalition will receive a signal that they're expendable as well,
which would destabilize the entire coalition. Instead, Iran sees that
it must remain completely loyal to al-Assad, and Hezbollah militias
must remain in Syria to protect Iran's interests there -- including
from the Turks and the Russians.
During the peace talks in Astana, Turkey demanded that Hezbollah's
militias be pulled out of Syria, and Iran rejected that demand for the
reasons just given.
In fact, according to Debka, Iran is planning for a much more
aggressive role for Hezbollah in Syria. As long-time readers know, I
like to reference Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a
subscriber), which is written from Israel's point of view, because
they have military and intelligence sources that provide valuable
insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that they
definitely do get some things wrong. The information that I'm
presenting here from their newsletter is not confirmed by any other
sources I've seen, but it's generally consistent with other reports.
According to the newsletter, Iran is developing an "unacknowledged
cold war" with Russia, by taking control of assets within Syria that
give it enough influence to challenge both Russia and al-Assad. Some
of these steps are as follows:
According to the newsletter, Iran can use these assets as leverage in
any future peace negotiations for Syria, in order to guarantee that
its interests are fully protected. The National (UAE, 28-Jan) and Reuters (25-Jan) and Middle East Eye and Debka
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Iran, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Syria,
Turkey, Russia, Astana, Kazakhstan, National Defense Force, NDF
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Hezbollah keeps on fighting, but says it will honor Syria ceasefire
- Tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad
****
**** Hezbollah keeps on fighting, but says it will honor Syria ceasefire
****
Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah on Sunday (al-Manar)
On Sunday, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, Iran's
puppet terrorist organization, gave a major televised speech to his
followers insisting that Hezbollah fully supported the ceasefire
agreement that had been negotiated three weeks ago by Russia, Iran and
Turkey. He said that he was responding to reports in the Arab press
that there were major disagreements between Iran and Russia, and
claimed that he wanted the forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad
to keep on fighting, and to continue to eliminate as much of the Sunni
population as possible. Nasrallah contradicted those reports in his
televised speech:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We [support] an agreement that ends the bloodshed and
> paves way for a national reconciliation [in Syria]. Hezbollah and
> Iran support the ceasefire, the reconciliation, and the political
> settlement in Syria, while some Arab states are still backing the
> military option.
>
> Hezbollah strongly supports, not just the Astana ceasefire, any
> ceasefire agreed upon in Syria [in order to] prevent bloodshed and
> pave the way for political solutions."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Nasrallah was referring to the peace talks that were held last month
in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan.
Nonetheless, there is currently no ceasefire. Hezbollah forces took
the lead in fighting in the region called Wadi Barada in the suburbs
of Damascus, under control of anti-Assad rebels who are theoretically
supposed to be protected by the ceasefire agreement. According to
Nasrallah, Hezbollah is continuing to fight "terrorists" in Syria.
In fact, none of the groups fighting in Syria -- Iran, al-Assad,
Hezbollah, Russia, Turkey -- is honoring the ceasefire. The next
round of peace talks is scheduled for February 20.
As I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and
the Sunni Muslim countries will be on one side, and the US, Russia,
India and Iran will be on the other side. Reuters and Press TV (Tehran)
Related Articles
- Russia, Iran, Turkey sign farcical Syria peace agreement (25-Jan-2017)
- U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria (22-Mar-2012)
- Kofi Annan resigns in failure as Syria envoy (03-Aug-2012)
- Syria's 'peace conference' proceeds as total farce (29-Jan-2014)
****
**** Tensions grow over the future of Bashar al-Assad
****
Reports of disagreements between Russia and Iran began with last
month's Astana peace talks because they didn't go as plan. There was
sharp disagreement over the participation of the United States in the
negotiations, which Russia favored and which Iran considered to be
unacceptable.
The final statement produced by the Astana talks called for a
ceasefire, but no Syrians were party to the statement, as it was
signed only by Turkey, Iran and Russia. The negotiators for the
anti-Assad rebels wouldn't sign it unless it called for al-Assad to
step down. Al-Assad's negotiators wouldn't sign it because they
objected to Turkey's participation, and to Turkish forces in northern
Syria where they're fighting ISIS.
The catalyst for all these disagreements is al-Assad himself. It's
now widely agreed that al-Assad is so divisive that there will never
be peace in Syria as long as he's in power. At the very least, he
would have to step down and be replaced by someone from his own
Alawite clan.
The anti-Assad rebels want him gone. The Turks want him gone too, but
are willing to put up with him if it means an end to the Syrian war.
The Russians want their military bases to lie within a stable Syria,
but they're not tied to al-Assad, and are willing to consider having
him step down at some time in the near future.
But Iran is adamant that al-Assad must stay, and cannot even be
replaced by someone with similar policies. According to one analysis,
the cause springs from the fact that Iran is quite isolated in the
region, as the only Shia Muslim state, but surrounded by Sunni Muslim
and Christian states. Thus, Iran is forced to rely on non-state
alliances -- the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Northern
Alliance in Afghanistan, the Badr Organization in Iraq, Islamic Jihad
in Gaza, and Shia/Alawite Bashar al-Assad in Syria -- forming the
"Shia Crescent." According to this analysis, if Iran is not
completely loyal to al-Assad, then all the other non-state groups in
its coalition will receive a signal that they're expendable as well,
which would destabilize the entire coalition. Instead, Iran sees that
it must remain completely loyal to al-Assad, and Hezbollah militias
must remain in Syria to protect Iran's interests there -- including
from the Turks and the Russians.
During the peace talks in Astana, Turkey demanded that Hezbollah's
militias be pulled out of Syria, and Iran rejected that demand for the
reasons just given.
In fact, according to Debka, Iran is planning for a much more
aggressive role for Hezbollah in Syria. As long-time readers know, I
like to reference Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a
subscriber), which is written from Israel's point of view, because
they have military and intelligence sources that provide valuable
insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that they
definitely do get some things wrong. The information that I'm
presenting here from their newsletter is not confirmed by any other
sources I've seen, but it's generally consistent with other reports.
According to the newsletter, Iran is developing an "unacknowledged
cold war" with Russia, by taking control of assets within Syria that
give it enough influence to challenge both Russia and al-Assad. Some
of these steps are as follows:
- The National Defense Force (NDF) militia has been set up to
draw in the poor, jobless and forgotten elements of Syrian society by
lavishing on them wealth and influence far beyond the wages of Syrian
army regulars.
- The Hezbollah militias have been given a clandestine task: Winning
young Syrians over to join them instead of the Syrian army. In this
way, Iran is sapping the central regime's authority and boosting
Iranian influence in Damascus.
- Iranian agents have bought up blocks of Syrian real estate, mainly
in Damascus, and has been licensed as operator of Syria's mobile phone
service.
- Iran has increased the number of Shia holy places in Damascus and
Homs in keeping with the massive displacement of Sunni populations as
refugees.
According to the newsletter, Iran can use these assets as leverage in
any future peace negotiations for Syria, in order to guarantee that
its interests are fully protected. The National (UAE, 28-Jan) and Reuters (25-Jan) and Middle East Eye and Debka
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Iran, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, Syria,
Turkey, Russia, Astana, Kazakhstan, National Defense Force, NDF
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
