02-17-2017, 02:22 PM
Approval polls for Iowa (Selzer) and Virginia (Quininnipiac). Trump won Iowa decisively and barely lost Virginia in 2016. He's down 38-46 in Virginia and 42-49 in Iowa.
Gallup has a nationwide approval rating of 38/56... Figuring that the average incumbent can translate an approval rating at the start of a campaign into about 6% more of the vote share in the general election as an 'average' campaigner against an 'average' challenger, I would expect President Trump to get about 44% of the vote share in a re-election bid. If President Trump is no better than this three years from now, I can project that he would lose. This is before we have an economic meltdown or some disaster of foreign policy. The "Obama universe" that reflects a steady-hand approach to public policy has yet to come to an end, but the steady hand is gone.
Approval and favorability ratings (because where we have them both we see much the same numbers -- Michigan simply straddles a categories at 39% and 40%) suggest that President Trump would lose Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and North Carolina, all of which he won in 2016, in 2020. That is 77 electoral votes before I see anything from Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=1;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=1;11;9&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=1;4;3&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;9&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Probably our best approximation until about March.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;4&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=1;29*;5&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=1;6;5&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=1;4;3&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=1;15*;5&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;4&WV=2;5;9&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Not likely useful until March.
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.
Gallup has a nationwide approval rating of 38/56... Figuring that the average incumbent can translate an approval rating at the start of a campaign into about 6% more of the vote share in the general election as an 'average' campaigner against an 'average' challenger, I would expect President Trump to get about 44% of the vote share in a re-election bid. If President Trump is no better than this three years from now, I can project that he would lose. This is before we have an economic meltdown or some disaster of foreign policy. The "Obama universe" that reflects a steady-hand approach to public policy has yet to come to an end, but the steady hand is gone.
Approval and favorability ratings (because where we have them both we see much the same numbers -- Michigan simply straddles a categories at 39% and 40%) suggest that President Trump would lose Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, and North Carolina, all of which he won in 2016, in 2020. That is 77 electoral votes before I see anything from Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.
Favorability:
Probably our best approximation until about March.
Approval:
Not likely useful until March.
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.