03-18-2017, 10:04 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2017, 06:26 AM by John J. Xenakis.)
*** 19-Mar-17 World View -- Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan
****
![[Image: g170318b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170318b.jpg)
Map of region. Israeli warplanes struck Lebanon-bound convoy near the T-4 airbase near Palmyra. Syrian Russian-made S-200 ground to air missiles targeted the Israeli planes without success. One was intercepted by Israel's Arrow missile system. This map also depicts a claim by Debka that Hezbollah may be planning an attack on Israeli-held Mount Hermon. (Debka)
The most serious incident between Israel and Syria since the Syrian
civil war began six years ago occurred early Friday morning when
Syrian anti-aircraft missiles were shot down by Israel's Arrow 3
anti-missile defense system. The Syrian missiles were targeting
Israeli warplanes attacking a convoy of trucks carrying advanced
weapons from northern Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel's warplanes were attacking a convoy of trucks leaving Syria's
T-4 airbase near Palmyra in northern Syria. The trucks were believed
to be carrying advanced weapons systems to be delivered to Hezbollah
in Lebanon for use in its attacks on Israel. The advanced weapons may
have included precision rockets, advanced anti-aircraft missiles and
surface-to-ship missiles.
Israel has attacked weapons convoys traveling from Syria to Lebanon in
the past, but the first thing that's unprecedented about this attack
is that it has been confirmed by Israel's military. In the past,
Israel has refused to comment on its attacks on weapons convoys.
However, in April 2016, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
admitted for the first time that Israel had in the past attacked
dozens of convoys transporting weapons in Syria destined for
Hezbollah,
The second unprecedented thing is that the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad launched three or four ground-to-air missiles to
attack the Israeli warplanes. In the case of past attacks on weapons
convoys, there were no such anti-aircraft missile attacks.
The missiles were apparently outdated Russian-made S-200 (SA-5)
surface-to-air missiles. Syria launched them when Israel's warplanes
were in Israeli airspace. According to one report, it's possible that
the missile attack on the convoy was launched from the warplanes while
they were still in Israeli airspace. Syria claims to have downed one
Israeli plane, but Israel says that none of its planes was hit.
However, at least one of the missiles was headed for Israeli
territory.
The third unprecedented thing is that Israel launched an Arrow-3
anti-missile missile to intercept the incoming missile before it
reached Israeli territory. This is the first time that the Arrow
system has made an operational appearance.
Israel would have liked to keep its use of the Arrow system secret,
but when it intercepted the incoming Syrian missile, it made a
deafening bang that could be heard for more than 150 km. The Syrian
missile was intercepted over the Jordan Valley in the West Bank, and
parts of the missile landed in Jordan, doing little or no damage.
This unprecedented clash between Israel and Syria may indicate that
the rules have changed. Israel has attacked weapons convoys in the
past, but only when there were major weapons systems being delivered
to Hezbollah, as was apparently the case this time. Weapons convoys
with smaller weapons have not been attacked.
But while the al-Assad regime has threatened in the past to retaliate.
After another Israeli airstrike in January, that al-Assad regime said
that it would no longer tolerate any such incursions on Syrian
airspace. This this is the first time the threat has been put into
action. This may signal that al-Assad, secure in support from Russia
and Iran, may now try to shift the war to Israel. Haaretz (Israel) and
CNN and Debka and SANA (Damascus)
Related Articles
****
**** Russia summons Israeli envoy to demand an explanation
****
On Friday, Russia summoned Israel's ambassador to Moscow Gary Koren
and demanded an explanation for the attack. According to a statement
by Russia's Foreign Ministry, "recent developments in Syria" were
discussed.
Israel's attacks on weapons convoys in the past could only have taken
place with Russia's approval, though obviously not with the approval
of the al-Assad regime, Hezbollah or Iran. Russia considers itself to
be an ally of both Syria and Israel, and does not wish to allow a war
to develop between them, so therefore tolerates the Israeli attacks on
weapons convoys going to Hezbollah.
In this case, Russia may have been concerned because the airstrikes
occurred near the T-4 airbase that houses Russian weapons, warplanes
and helicopters, and is a landing field for Iranian supply planes.
What's not clear at this time is whether Russia wants to change the
rules of the game and limit Israel's attacks on such convoys.
However, after Koren met with Russian officials, a defiant Israeli
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would not change
its policy:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"When we identify attempts to transfer advanced arms
> to Hezbollah, and we have intelligence information and we have the
> operational plan, we act to prevent it. That's how it was
> yesterday and that's how we shall continue to act.
>
> We are fully determined and the evidence of that it that we are
> acting. Everybody must take that into account —
> everybody."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
By "everybody," we can assume that he's referring to Russia, as well
as to Syria, Hezbollah and Iran. Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews against
Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each
other. France 24 and Western Journalism and AFP
****
**** Jordan has to live with increasing threats from Syria and Israel
****
A strategic analyst in Jordan said on Saturday that Jordan will have
to live with security threats, as long as the war in Syria continues.
He was responding to the situation where shrapnel from the
Syria-Israel missile exchange landed in Jordan.
According to Rt. Major General Fayez Dweiri
> [indent]<QUOTE>"This is a violation of Jordan’s airspace from both
> the Israeli and the Syrian sides. Jordan does not possess the
> military capability to prevent such attacks.
>
> The Kingdom has to live with this situation. What it can do is to
> manage the situation, to neutralize any threats as much as it can
> under the circumstances."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Jordan Times
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Syria, T-4 airbase, Palmyra,
S-200 SA-5 missiles, Arrow 3 anti-missile,
Russia, Gary Koren, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Jordan Valley, West Bank, Jordan, Rt. Major General Fayez Dweiri
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan
- Russia summons Israeli envoy to demand an explanation
- Jordan has to live with increasing threats from Syria and Israel
****
**** Israel and Syria have unprecedented missile clash over Jordan
****
Map of region. Israeli warplanes struck Lebanon-bound convoy near the T-4 airbase near Palmyra. Syrian Russian-made S-200 ground to air missiles targeted the Israeli planes without success. One was intercepted by Israel's Arrow missile system. This map also depicts a claim by Debka that Hezbollah may be planning an attack on Israeli-held Mount Hermon. (Debka)
The most serious incident between Israel and Syria since the Syrian
civil war began six years ago occurred early Friday morning when
Syrian anti-aircraft missiles were shot down by Israel's Arrow 3
anti-missile defense system. The Syrian missiles were targeting
Israeli warplanes attacking a convoy of trucks carrying advanced
weapons from northern Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel's warplanes were attacking a convoy of trucks leaving Syria's
T-4 airbase near Palmyra in northern Syria. The trucks were believed
to be carrying advanced weapons systems to be delivered to Hezbollah
in Lebanon for use in its attacks on Israel. The advanced weapons may
have included precision rockets, advanced anti-aircraft missiles and
surface-to-ship missiles.
Israel has attacked weapons convoys traveling from Syria to Lebanon in
the past, but the first thing that's unprecedented about this attack
is that it has been confirmed by Israel's military. In the past,
Israel has refused to comment on its attacks on weapons convoys.
However, in April 2016, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu
admitted for the first time that Israel had in the past attacked
dozens of convoys transporting weapons in Syria destined for
Hezbollah,
The second unprecedented thing is that the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad launched three or four ground-to-air missiles to
attack the Israeli warplanes. In the case of past attacks on weapons
convoys, there were no such anti-aircraft missile attacks.
The missiles were apparently outdated Russian-made S-200 (SA-5)
surface-to-air missiles. Syria launched them when Israel's warplanes
were in Israeli airspace. According to one report, it's possible that
the missile attack on the convoy was launched from the warplanes while
they were still in Israeli airspace. Syria claims to have downed one
Israeli plane, but Israel says that none of its planes was hit.
However, at least one of the missiles was headed for Israeli
territory.
The third unprecedented thing is that Israel launched an Arrow-3
anti-missile missile to intercept the incoming missile before it
reached Israeli territory. This is the first time that the Arrow
system has made an operational appearance.
Israel would have liked to keep its use of the Arrow system secret,
but when it intercepted the incoming Syrian missile, it made a
deafening bang that could be heard for more than 150 km. The Syrian
missile was intercepted over the Jordan Valley in the West Bank, and
parts of the missile landed in Jordan, doing little or no damage.
This unprecedented clash between Israel and Syria may indicate that
the rules have changed. Israel has attacked weapons convoys in the
past, but only when there were major weapons systems being delivered
to Hezbollah, as was apparently the case this time. Weapons convoys
with smaller weapons have not been attacked.
But while the al-Assad regime has threatened in the past to retaliate.
After another Israeli airstrike in January, that al-Assad regime said
that it would no longer tolerate any such incursions on Syrian
airspace. This this is the first time the threat has been put into
action. This may signal that al-Assad, secure in support from Russia
and Iran, may now try to shift the war to Israel. Haaretz (Israel) and
CNN and Debka and SANA (Damascus)
Related Articles
- Syria says that Israel bombed al-Mazzeh military airport near Damascus (14-Jan-2017)
- Hezbollah building tunnels into Israel to prepare for next war (04-Jun-2016)
- Hezbollah suffers blow in death of top commander Mustafa Amine Badreddine (14-May-2016)
- Deep Saudi-Lebanon crisis widens the Mideast's sectarian fault line (10-Mar-2016)
****
**** Russia summons Israeli envoy to demand an explanation
****
On Friday, Russia summoned Israel's ambassador to Moscow Gary Koren
and demanded an explanation for the attack. According to a statement
by Russia's Foreign Ministry, "recent developments in Syria" were
discussed.
Israel's attacks on weapons convoys in the past could only have taken
place with Russia's approval, though obviously not with the approval
of the al-Assad regime, Hezbollah or Iran. Russia considers itself to
be an ally of both Syria and Israel, and does not wish to allow a war
to develop between them, so therefore tolerates the Israeli attacks on
weapons convoys going to Hezbollah.
In this case, Russia may have been concerned because the airstrikes
occurred near the T-4 airbase that houses Russian weapons, warplanes
and helicopters, and is a landing field for Iranian supply planes.
What's not clear at this time is whether Russia wants to change the
rules of the game and limit Israel's attacks on such convoys.
However, after Koren met with Russian officials, a defiant Israeli
prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would not change
its policy:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"When we identify attempts to transfer advanced arms
> to Hezbollah, and we have intelligence information and we have the
> operational plan, we act to prevent it. That's how it was
> yesterday and that's how we shall continue to act.
>
> We are fully determined and the evidence of that it that we are
> acting. Everybody must take that into account —
> everybody."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
By "everybody," we can assume that he's referring to Russia, as well
as to Syria, Hezbollah and Iran. Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews against
Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each
other. France 24 and Western Journalism and AFP
****
**** Jordan has to live with increasing threats from Syria and Israel
****
A strategic analyst in Jordan said on Saturday that Jordan will have
to live with security threats, as long as the war in Syria continues.
He was responding to the situation where shrapnel from the
Syria-Israel missile exchange landed in Jordan.
According to Rt. Major General Fayez Dweiri
> [indent]<QUOTE>"This is a violation of Jordan’s airspace from both
> the Israeli and the Syrian sides. Jordan does not possess the
> military capability to prevent such attacks.
>
> The Kingdom has to live with this situation. What it can do is to
> manage the situation, to neutralize any threats as much as it can
> under the circumstances."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Jordan Times
Related Articles
- Jordan's King demands more refugee aid from international community (03-Feb-2016)
- Jordan's King Abdullah tells Congress that Palestinian issue is the core issue (08-Mar-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Syria, T-4 airbase, Palmyra,
S-200 SA-5 missiles, Arrow 3 anti-missile,
Russia, Gary Koren, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Jordan Valley, West Bank, Jordan, Rt. Major General Fayez Dweiri
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
