03-24-2017, 04:03 PM
It's a small state, but potentially a pivotal state -- New Hampshire. Democrats have not won the Presidency without the Granite State since 1976, and it was potentially the difference between Gore and Bush in 2000. It was one of Hillary Clinton's weakest wins.
New Hampshire is about D+2; it does not swing much from the national average. Polling has been slow, and it is hard to see how New Hampshire could disapprove of Donald Trump by 55% or more unless he is incredibly awful. This is close to consistent with about 35% approval for the President nationwide.
I see evidence that Donald Trump would lose six states that he won in 2016: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. At this point I would expect Donald Trump to lose 'bigly' in 2020. Maybe not like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. The Democrats do not have an FDR or a Reagan, but they do not need one.
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=1;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=1;11;9&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;9&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;4&WV=0;5;9&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Still useful for some states.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;7&AR=2;6;9&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=1;6;5&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=1;10;9&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=1;4;9&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=1;20;9&RI=0;4;1&SC=1;9;3&SD=0;3;2&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;4&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;4&WV=2;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
If you are wondering about South Carolina, which last voted for a Democratic nominee for President in 1976 (Jimmy Carter)... elected Republican pols have been exposed in a widespread scandal of political corruption. That can only hurt Republicans in 2020.
At this stage I can predict that the 2020 Democratic nominee for President wins at least as strongly as Barack Obama in 2008 if he wins either Georgia or Ohio, for which I have no polling data.
Quote:A gold standard pollster, ARG, finds Trump deeply underwater in New Hampshire:
Approve 31%
Disapprove 61%
New Hampshire is about D+2; it does not swing much from the national average. Polling has been slow, and it is hard to see how New Hampshire could disapprove of Donald Trump by 55% or more unless he is incredibly awful. This is close to consistent with about 35% approval for the President nationwide.
I see evidence that Donald Trump would lose six states that he won in 2016: Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. At this point I would expect Donald Trump to lose 'bigly' in 2020. Maybe not like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. The Democrats do not have an FDR or a Reagan, but they do not need one.
Favorability:
Still useful for some states.
Approval:
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
If you are wondering about South Carolina, which last voted for a Democratic nominee for President in 1976 (Jimmy Carter)... elected Republican pols have been exposed in a widespread scandal of political corruption. That can only hurt Republicans in 2020.
At this stage I can predict that the 2020 Democratic nominee for President wins at least as strongly as Barack Obama in 2008 if he wins either Georgia or Ohio, for which I have no polling data.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.