Texas, which has 38 electoral votes:
42% Approve
54% Disapprove
Source
(Texas Lyceum)
Note also that Ted Cruz could be having trouble with his Senate seat. There hasn't been a Democratic Senator from Texas since Lloyd Bentsen's fill-in was defeated in the next election.
Maybe Texas is approaching the national average... it's hard to tell because Texas is a tough state to poll. If President Trump is having trouble in Texas, then he is having trouble in almost all regions of America. I don't fully trust any poll of Texas because the state has too many regional divides for reliable polling, and nobody really understands the state.
If Donald Trump should lose this state in 2020, then he is losing 'bigly', as the state is the difference between about 400 and 440 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President.
It is a huge drop from the last poll by Texas Lyceum. parallel to what happened in Utah and Arkansas. Donald Trump will not win Texas if he has an approval rating of 42% in Texas early in 2020 just because the state is Texas.
Favorability:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=1;11;7&AR=0;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=1;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=0;29;4&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=0;6;2&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=0;10;7&MA=1;11;9&MI=1;16;7&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=0;3;4&NV=0;6;4&NH=0;4;9&NJ=1;14;7&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;3&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=0;20;2&RI=0;4;1&SC=0;9;1&SD=0;3;2&TN=0;11;2&TX=0;38;7&UT=2;6*;7&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;9&WI=0;10;6&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.
Still useful for some states.
Approval:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;4&AK=0;3;2&AZ=0;11;7&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;5&CT=0;7;4&DE=0;3;7&DC=0;3;1&FL=1;29;3&GA=0;16;2&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;7&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;7&IA=1;6;5&KS=0;6;7&KY=0;8;7&LA=0;8;7&MD=1;10;9&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;5&MN=0;10;4&MS=0;6;2&MO=0;10;1&MT=2;3;7&NV=0;6;4&NH=1;4;9&NJ=1;14;9&NM=0;5;7&NY=1;29;9&NC=1;15;7&ND=0;3;7&OH=0;18;4&OK=0;7;7&OR=0;7;4&PA=1;20;9&RI=0;4;1&SC=1;9;3&SD=0;3;2&TN=2;11;7&TX=1;38;5&UT=1;6;3&VT=0;3;7&VA=1;13;7&WA=1;12;5&WV=2;5;9&WI=1;10;5&WY=0;3;7&ME=0;2;4&ME1=0;1;2&ME2=0;1;4&NE=0;2;7&NE1=0;1;7&NE2=0;1;7&NE3=0;1;7)
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
Note the non-standard treatment of Utah. A poll of Utah released one week had Donald Trump underwater 47-50; a poll from the previous week had him up 54-41, which was still weak for a right-wing Republican in Utah.
Can you imagine Texas having the same sort of low esteem for a Republican President as Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin?
Biggest mistakes of American history: slavery, Jim Crow, Little Big Horn, Prohibition, closing the doors to Jewish refugees from Hitler, incarceration of the Japanese in WWII, the merger of Packard with Studebaker, Operation Iraqi Liberation, and Donald Trump.
I so dislike Donald Trump that I would undo the Declaration of Independence if I now had my choice.
42% Approve
54% Disapprove
Source
(Texas Lyceum)
Note also that Ted Cruz could be having trouble with his Senate seat. There hasn't been a Democratic Senator from Texas since Lloyd Bentsen's fill-in was defeated in the next election.
Maybe Texas is approaching the national average... it's hard to tell because Texas is a tough state to poll. If President Trump is having trouble in Texas, then he is having trouble in almost all regions of America. I don't fully trust any poll of Texas because the state has too many regional divides for reliable polling, and nobody really understands the state.
If Donald Trump should lose this state in 2020, then he is losing 'bigly', as the state is the difference between about 400 and 440 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President.
It is a huge drop from the last poll by Texas Lyceum. parallel to what happened in Utah and Arkansas. Donald Trump will not win Texas if he has an approval rating of 42% in Texas early in 2020 just because the state is Texas.
Favorability:
*approval poll from mid-March supplanted by a poll the next week by the same pollster. Shown as a data point that I wish I had gotten at an opportune time.
Still useful for some states.
Approval:
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
Note the non-standard treatment of Utah. A poll of Utah released one week had Donald Trump underwater 47-50; a poll from the previous week had him up 54-41, which was still weak for a right-wing Republican in Utah.
Can you imagine Texas having the same sort of low esteem for a Republican President as Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin?
Biggest mistakes of American history: slavery, Jim Crow, Little Big Horn, Prohibition, closing the doors to Jewish refugees from Hitler, incarceration of the Japanese in WWII, the merger of Packard with Studebaker, Operation Iraqi Liberation, and Donald Trump.
I so dislike Donald Trump that I would undo the Declaration of Independence if I now had my choice.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.