04-26-2017, 09:54 PM
*** 27-Apr-17 World View -- Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting
****
![[Image: g170426b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170426b.jpg)
Rodrigo Duterte and Xi Jinping share a warm greeting and handshake (Reuters)
This week's meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) is generating controversy because the draft statement to be
issued makes no mention of China's militarization of the South China
Sea or the dramatic ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague declaring China's claims and activities
in the South China Sea to be illegal.
The person who is going easy on China is this meeting's rotating
chairman, who this year is Philippine's president Rodrigo R. Duterte.
In October of last year, Duterte went to Beijing and met with China's
president Xi Jingping. In exchange for receiving millions of dollars
in investments and loans from China, Duterte agreed to cancel some
agreements with the United States and to forget about China's illegal
activities in the South China Sea.
Last year's ASEAN statement emphasized the importance of
"non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all
activities, including land reclamation." But Duterte's watered-down
statement will drop references, or even allusions, to
China's construction of artificial islands and the military hardware
it has placed on them. Instead, the statement says:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We reaffirmed the importance of enhancing mutual
> trust and confidence, exercising self-restraint in the conduct of
> activities, avoiding actions that may further complicate the
> situation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The Philippine people view the United States far more favorably
than they do China, and so Duterte's flip-flop on China has
never been particularly possible. Duterte's own
defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana has vocally expressed
criticisms of China's activities, especially as it seemed
that China plans to build another military base on the
critical Scarborough Shoal.
On Tuesday, the former foreign affairs Secretary Albert Del Rosario
raised 5 concerns about Duterte's appeasement policy:
Of course Duterte has no answer to Rosario's questions. Rosario
says that the Philippines should take full advantage of
last year's PCA ruling, and make sure that international
law is upheld in the region. According to Rosario:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Philippine interests are best promoted when all
> states, of any size or power, adhere to the commonly agreed upon
> standards that govern countries’ rights and relationships.
> International law, in my view, is the great equalizer. Through it,
> a country of 100 million people is the equal of one that is more
> powerful, and that is more than ten times its size.
>
> As this year’s chair of ASEAN, the Philippines has a unique and an
> important opportunity to dwell on how we can work with our
> neighbors to ensure that this rules-based order succeeds. The
> purpose of our cooperation should go beyond maintaining friendly
> ties; we must also cooperate to ensure that we live in a
> neighborhood where countries follow the rules and uphold their
> commitments."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Duterte's proposed statement may yet be changed before it's officially
issued by ASEAN on Saturday. Other ASEAN members whose territories in
the South China Sea that China is confiscating include Malaysia,
Vietnam and Brunei. They may pressure Duterte to make a more
aggressive statement. However Cambodia, which also receives a great
deal of money from China, would fight such a move, and force a
compromise similar to Duterte's appeasement statement. Manila Times and Reuters and Rappler (Philippines)
Related Articles
****
**** The phrase 'Code of Conduct' is the new code word for appeasement
****
There's a new code phrase used by people who want to appease China.
The phrase is "Code of Conduct" or CoC. The idea is to negotiate with
China to agree to a code of conduct in the South China Sea, so that
everyone can live in peace. It's totally laughable to believe that
China would agree to any code of conduct, or to follow any code of
conduct it agreed to, but calling for a CoC is the easy solution for
someone who doesn't want to confront China.
There's an obvious comparison to the United States relation with North
Korea. For decades, the US appeased North Korea, hoping that
appeasement could end its development of nuclear weapons. It hasn't
worked, as North Korea is now on the verge, within perhaps a couple of
years, of developing a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile that could
reach the United States.
The policy of appeasing North Korea has been a complete failure, and
now under president Donald Trump the policy is being reversed to be a
lot more confrontational.
Duterte's policy of appeasement toward China is not going to
work either. China is determined to continue with its heavy
militarization of the South China Sea and, perhaps within a couple
of years, will have the entire South China Sea under its military
control.
The US also has a policy of appeasement toward China. As regular
Generational Dynamics readers know, China has been aggressively
preparing for full-scale war with the United States for years.
They've developed one nuclear ballistic missile system after another,
and manufactured perhaps hundreds of those missiles, with no other
purpose than to destroy American cities, military bases and aircraft
carriers. These developments have been deliberately planned, and it's
clear that China plans to attack at a time of its own choosing. The
US has chosen to ignore this vast military buildup directed at us,
just as Duterte is ignoring China's military buildup in the South
China Sea.
Appeasement as a strategy doesn't work, and leads to war. North Korea
is developing is nuclear-tipped missile, China is continuing to
militarize the South China Sea and also to develop missile systems
targeting the United States, and in 1938 Britain's prime minister
Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Adolf Hitler didn't prevent World
War II.
The problem is that the opposite of appeasement also doesn't work, and
also leads to war, perhaps more quickly. If Neville Chamberlain had
declared war on Nazi Germany instead of declaring "peace in our time,"
then WW II would simply have occurred sooner. Donald Trump is
currently discovering that there's no credible way to prevent North
Korea's development of a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic
missile without a major war that would devastate South Korea. The
Philippines could do nothing to stop China's huge military buildup in
the South China Sea, so Rodrigo Duterte decided to make the best of it
by getting some money out of the situation. If you're going to die
anyway, you might as well get 30 pieces of silver first. And no one
even wants to think about some alternative to appeasement of China in
view of that country's evident plans for a preemptive attack on the
United States.
There's a halfway measure - sanctions, but that hasn't worked either
in the case of North Korea, which has survived enormous sanctions.
As with so many problems that I've written about over the years, these
problems have no solution. In each case, the rogue countries will
continue that path to full-scale war, and other countries will use
appeasement because there's no other way to proceed. Finally the war
begins, causing millions or billions of deaths, and it ends with an
international conference that issues a statement saying "Never again,"
but it always happens again. Inquirer (Manila) and Philippine Star
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
China, Xi Jinping, South China Sea, Code of Conduct, CoC,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Delfin Lorenzan, Albert Del Rosario, North Korea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting
- The phrase 'Code of Conduct' is the new code word for appeasement
****
**** Philippines President Duterte seeks to appease China at ASEAN meeting
****
Rodrigo Duterte and Xi Jinping share a warm greeting and handshake (Reuters)
This week's meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) is generating controversy because the draft statement to be
issued makes no mention of China's militarization of the South China
Sea or the dramatic ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of
Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague declaring China's claims and activities
in the South China Sea to be illegal.
The person who is going easy on China is this meeting's rotating
chairman, who this year is Philippine's president Rodrigo R. Duterte.
In October of last year, Duterte went to Beijing and met with China's
president Xi Jingping. In exchange for receiving millions of dollars
in investments and loans from China, Duterte agreed to cancel some
agreements with the United States and to forget about China's illegal
activities in the South China Sea.
Last year's ASEAN statement emphasized the importance of
"non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all
activities, including land reclamation." But Duterte's watered-down
statement will drop references, or even allusions, to
China's construction of artificial islands and the military hardware
it has placed on them. Instead, the statement says:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"We reaffirmed the importance of enhancing mutual
> trust and confidence, exercising self-restraint in the conduct of
> activities, avoiding actions that may further complicate the
> situation."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
The Philippine people view the United States far more favorably
than they do China, and so Duterte's flip-flop on China has
never been particularly possible. Duterte's own
defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana has vocally expressed
criticisms of China's activities, especially as it seemed
that China plans to build another military base on the
critical Scarborough Shoal.
On Tuesday, the former foreign affairs Secretary Albert Del Rosario
raised 5 concerns about Duterte's appeasement policy:
- On shelving the PCA ruling, what would happen if we should
pass the point of no return?
- What if the rules-based system were to collapse in our
region?
- What if we were to squander the support of the responsible
community of nations?
- As the island-building is complete, is the arbitration academic if
China is able to operationalize its nine-dash line claim?
- As America is the promoter of the rule of law, what would happen
if our alliance with the United States is weakened, rather than
strengthened?
Of course Duterte has no answer to Rosario's questions. Rosario
says that the Philippines should take full advantage of
last year's PCA ruling, and make sure that international
law is upheld in the region. According to Rosario:
> [indent]<QUOTE>"Philippine interests are best promoted when all
> states, of any size or power, adhere to the commonly agreed upon
> standards that govern countries’ rights and relationships.
> International law, in my view, is the great equalizer. Through it,
> a country of 100 million people is the equal of one that is more
> powerful, and that is more than ten times its size.
>
> As this year’s chair of ASEAN, the Philippines has a unique and an
> important opportunity to dwell on how we can work with our
> neighbors to ensure that this rules-based order succeeds. The
> purpose of our cooperation should go beyond maintaining friendly
> ties; we must also cooperate to ensure that we live in a
> neighborhood where countries follow the rules and uphold their
> commitments."<END QUOTE>[/indent]
Duterte's proposed statement may yet be changed before it's officially
issued by ASEAN on Saturday. Other ASEAN members whose territories in
the South China Sea that China is confiscating include Malaysia,
Vietnam and Brunei. They may pressure Duterte to make a more
aggressive statement. However Cambodia, which also receives a great
deal of money from China, would fight such a move, and force a
compromise similar to Duterte's appeasement statement. Manila Times and Reuters and Rappler (Philippines)
Related Articles
- Philippines president Duterte orders military to occupy South China Sea islands (07-Apr-2017)
- China-Philippines détente unravels over Scarborough Shoal (19-Feb-2017)
- US will upgrade Philippines military bases, despite Duterte's threats (31-Jan-2017)
- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
****
**** The phrase 'Code of Conduct' is the new code word for appeasement
****
There's a new code phrase used by people who want to appease China.
The phrase is "Code of Conduct" or CoC. The idea is to negotiate with
China to agree to a code of conduct in the South China Sea, so that
everyone can live in peace. It's totally laughable to believe that
China would agree to any code of conduct, or to follow any code of
conduct it agreed to, but calling for a CoC is the easy solution for
someone who doesn't want to confront China.
There's an obvious comparison to the United States relation with North
Korea. For decades, the US appeased North Korea, hoping that
appeasement could end its development of nuclear weapons. It hasn't
worked, as North Korea is now on the verge, within perhaps a couple of
years, of developing a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile that could
reach the United States.
The policy of appeasing North Korea has been a complete failure, and
now under president Donald Trump the policy is being reversed to be a
lot more confrontational.
Duterte's policy of appeasement toward China is not going to
work either. China is determined to continue with its heavy
militarization of the South China Sea and, perhaps within a couple
of years, will have the entire South China Sea under its military
control.
The US also has a policy of appeasement toward China. As regular
Generational Dynamics readers know, China has been aggressively
preparing for full-scale war with the United States for years.
They've developed one nuclear ballistic missile system after another,
and manufactured perhaps hundreds of those missiles, with no other
purpose than to destroy American cities, military bases and aircraft
carriers. These developments have been deliberately planned, and it's
clear that China plans to attack at a time of its own choosing. The
US has chosen to ignore this vast military buildup directed at us,
just as Duterte is ignoring China's military buildup in the South
China Sea.
Appeasement as a strategy doesn't work, and leads to war. North Korea
is developing is nuclear-tipped missile, China is continuing to
militarize the South China Sea and also to develop missile systems
targeting the United States, and in 1938 Britain's prime minister
Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Adolf Hitler didn't prevent World
War II.
The problem is that the opposite of appeasement also doesn't work, and
also leads to war, perhaps more quickly. If Neville Chamberlain had
declared war on Nazi Germany instead of declaring "peace in our time,"
then WW II would simply have occurred sooner. Donald Trump is
currently discovering that there's no credible way to prevent North
Korea's development of a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic
missile without a major war that would devastate South Korea. The
Philippines could do nothing to stop China's huge military buildup in
the South China Sea, so Rodrigo Duterte decided to make the best of it
by getting some money out of the situation. If you're going to die
anyway, you might as well get 30 pieces of silver first. And no one
even wants to think about some alternative to appeasement of China in
view of that country's evident plans for a preemptive attack on the
United States.
There's a halfway measure - sanctions, but that hasn't worked either
in the case of North Korea, which has survived enormous sanctions.
As with so many problems that I've written about over the years, these
problems have no solution. In each case, the rogue countries will
continue that path to full-scale war, and other countries will use
appeasement because there's no other way to proceed. Finally the war
begins, causing millions or billions of deaths, and it ends with an
international conference that issues a statement saying "Never again,"
but it always happens again. Inquirer (Manila) and Philippine Star
Related Articles
- Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
- South China Sea: China's list of supporters is found to be delusional (24-Jun-2016)
- Appeasement Conundrum: alternative to appeasing Hitler - North Korea, China? (10-Oct-2006)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
China, Xi Jinping, South China Sea, Code of Conduct, CoC,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN,
Delfin Lorenzan, Albert Del Rosario, North Korea
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
