05-04-2017, 08:21 PM
(05-03-2017, 11:52 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(05-03-2017, 03:22 PM)David Horn Wrote:(05-03-2017, 01:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: ... Hillary was right, of course, that the Comey letter plus wikileaks cost her the election. I watched the Nate Silver site every day as her "chances" plunged relentlessly toward negative right after the letter came out. Comey's retraction then stopped the slide, at least for the moment. However, Trump was a better speaker and campaigner, and that made a big difference too. I don't know if Hillary admits this or not.
Hillary was already in a nose spin prior to the Comey letter. The letter added to her troubles, but she would most probably have lost in any case.
I followed the election closely, though, and although Hillary was in slight decline before the letter, it was the letter that created a nosedive, for sure. I commented on it here, on the forum, as it happened.
Would she have lost anyway? Who knows. My sense from following the trendlines up to the election, is no. She was still well enough ahead 10 days out.
The polls were off by about 2 points on election day. That difference could have made the difference. But I think the Comey affair created a larger drop than that.
Keep in mind that the 538 average is delayed by a few days, since it takes some time for pollsters to publish their results. David is right: Clinton had peaked two weeks before and the pendulum was swinging back to Trump. Clinton actually did better than she had in the previous few swings.