05-09-2017, 09:51 PM
*** 10-May-17 World View -- Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
****
**** Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war
****
![[Image: g170509b.jpg]](http://Media.GenerationalDynamics.com/ww2010/g170509b.jpg)
American soldier at the Afghan border
According to a number of reports, President Donald Trump is
considering a plan to send an additional 3,000 to 5,000 American
troops to Afghanistan for a new "troop surge." These would add
to the 8,400 US troops already there, as well as 300 Nato troops.
The reports indicate two changes in strategy.
First, the troop levels would be heavily conditioned on the ability
of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to weed out ineffective military
commanders and reduce corruption,
Second, the troop surge would be combined with a new military
strategy to threaten the Taliban with defeat so that they would
return to the negotiating table.
Both of these conditions are laughable. Afghanistan is entering a
generational Awakening era and Ghani has less political control than
ever over dissident forces. And the Taliban will never agree to a
peace agreement. They may attend so-called peace talks, but only for
the purpose of providing political cover for continuing the war, and
for conducting further terrorist attacks, particularly against Shia
Muslims. This is similar to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad who
uses peace conferences and peace agreements as political cover to
continue dropping barrel bombs with chemical weapons on innocent Sunni
Muslim women and children.
Military.com and Washington Post and Business Insider
Related Articles
****
**** Generational analysis: Afghanistan war versus Iraq war
****
I've written about this a number of times, starting in 2009,
when President Obama was considering
what strategy to use in Afghanistan. He eventually decided on a
"surge" in Afghanistan leading to a troop strength of 100,000, but it
was a complete farce, with repeated flip-flops on troop withdrawals,
and laughable attempts at peace talks with the Taliban.
President Bush's 2007 troop "surge" into Iraq was highly successful.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq was driven out and the country was at peace, although
many claim that the peace was squandered by President Obama's
withdrawal two years later.
So it's very tempting to try to repeat the Iraq troop surge in
Afghanistan. In fact, Obama did try that, with complete failure, as I
predicted in 2009. So now Trump is considering the same thing and the
prediction that it will end in total failure is the same. To
understand this, let's look at the difference between the Iraq and
Afghan wars from the point of view of generational theory.
Both countries are in generational Awakening eras, having had relative
recent generational crisis wars -- the Iran/Iraq war of 1980-88, and
the Afghanistan civil war of 1991-96. Both of these wars were
horrendously bloody, ending in a genocidal climax that brought
peace to the respective countries for a time.
But the Iran/Iraq war was an external war, with an external enemy,
Iran. In fact, in Iraq's last two crisis wars -- the Great Iraqi
Revolution of 1920 and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, Sunni and Shia
Iraqis banded together against the foreign enemy, the British in 1920
and the Iranians in the 1980s. They did not fight each other. Thus,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and al-Qaeda in Iraq were able to stir up
sectarian violence for a while, but al-Zarqawi had to import fighters
from Jordan and Saudi Arabia because the Iraqis refused to fight.
Eventually the Iraqis themselves turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq, and
threw them out. My 2007 analysis
of the war in Iraq was the best analysis written by anyone at that
time, and explained all this in detail.
Even today, Iraq is fighting an external war. the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is a coalition of foreign
jihadists from 86 countries around the world, most of whom came to
Syria to fight Bashar al-Assad. Right now the Iraqi army (ironically
with the help of the Iranians) is attacking the last of Iraq's ISIS
fighters in Mosul. There have been some flare-ups of Iraqi Shias
fighting Iraqi Sunnis, but that's not the main thing that's happening
in Iraq.
But none of that is true of the Afghan war. The 1991-1996 war was a
civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus
the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need
to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the
Pashtun tribes in Pakistan -- which is in a generational Crisis era,
and in which the Taliban are conducting regular terrorist acts.
The fact that the Iraq war was an external war, while the Afghan war
was a civil war means that the two wars have absolutely nothing in
common. To apply the strategy of one of these wars to the other is
disastrously wrong.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The Pashtuns still have scores to
settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern
Alliance, especially the Shias. The Taliban may sit in on peace talks
to gain political cover but they will never, under any circumstances,
agree to a peace deal, no matter how large the American troop surge.
To believe anything else is pure fantasy. US News and Vox and Politico
Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Afghan civil war,
Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Iraq, Iran/Iraq war, Great Iraqi Revolution,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaeda in Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
- Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war
- Generational analysis: Afghanistan war versus Iraq war
****
**** Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war
****
American soldier at the Afghan border
According to a number of reports, President Donald Trump is
considering a plan to send an additional 3,000 to 5,000 American
troops to Afghanistan for a new "troop surge." These would add
to the 8,400 US troops already there, as well as 300 Nato troops.
The reports indicate two changes in strategy.
First, the troop levels would be heavily conditioned on the ability
of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to weed out ineffective military
commanders and reduce corruption,
Second, the troop surge would be combined with a new military
strategy to threaten the Taliban with defeat so that they would
return to the negotiating table.
Both of these conditions are laughable. Afghanistan is entering a
generational Awakening era and Ghani has less political control than
ever over dissident forces. And the Taliban will never agree to a
peace agreement. They may attend so-called peace talks, but only for
the purpose of providing political cover for continuing the war, and
for conducting further terrorist attacks, particularly against Shia
Muslims. This is similar to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad who
uses peace conferences and peace agreements as political cover to
continue dropping barrel bombs with chemical weapons on innocent Sunni
Muslim women and children.
Military.com and Washington Post and Business Insider
Related Articles
- CENTCOM commander: Afghanistan 'stalemate' requires 'thousands' more US troops (11-Mar-2017)
- ISIS claims responsibility for attack on Shia Hazaras in Kabul Afghanistan (24-Jul-2016)
- Troubles mount for Afghanistan government as US withdrawal looms (12-Apr-2016)
****
**** Generational analysis: Afghanistan war versus Iraq war
****
I've written about this a number of times, starting in 2009,
when President Obama was considering
what strategy to use in Afghanistan. He eventually decided on a
"surge" in Afghanistan leading to a troop strength of 100,000, but it
was a complete farce, with repeated flip-flops on troop withdrawals,
and laughable attempts at peace talks with the Taliban.
President Bush's 2007 troop "surge" into Iraq was highly successful.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq was driven out and the country was at peace, although
many claim that the peace was squandered by President Obama's
withdrawal two years later.
So it's very tempting to try to repeat the Iraq troop surge in
Afghanistan. In fact, Obama did try that, with complete failure, as I
predicted in 2009. So now Trump is considering the same thing and the
prediction that it will end in total failure is the same. To
understand this, let's look at the difference between the Iraq and
Afghan wars from the point of view of generational theory.
Both countries are in generational Awakening eras, having had relative
recent generational crisis wars -- the Iran/Iraq war of 1980-88, and
the Afghanistan civil war of 1991-96. Both of these wars were
horrendously bloody, ending in a genocidal climax that brought
peace to the respective countries for a time.
But the Iran/Iraq war was an external war, with an external enemy,
Iran. In fact, in Iraq's last two crisis wars -- the Great Iraqi
Revolution of 1920 and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, Sunni and Shia
Iraqis banded together against the foreign enemy, the British in 1920
and the Iranians in the 1980s. They did not fight each other. Thus,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and al-Qaeda in Iraq were able to stir up
sectarian violence for a while, but al-Zarqawi had to import fighters
from Jordan and Saudi Arabia because the Iraqis refused to fight.
Eventually the Iraqis themselves turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq, and
threw them out. My 2007 analysis
of the war in Iraq was the best analysis written by anyone at that
time, and explained all this in detail.
Even today, Iraq is fighting an external war. the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is a coalition of foreign
jihadists from 86 countries around the world, most of whom came to
Syria to fight Bashar al-Assad. Right now the Iraqi army (ironically
with the help of the Iranians) is attacking the last of Iraq's ISIS
fighters in Mosul. There have been some flare-ups of Iraqi Shias
fighting Iraqi Sunnis, but that's not the main thing that's happening
in Iraq.
But none of that is true of the Afghan war. The 1991-1996 war was a
civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus
the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need
to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the
Pashtun tribes in Pakistan -- which is in a generational Crisis era,
and in which the Taliban are conducting regular terrorist acts.
The fact that the Iraq war was an external war, while the Afghan war
was a civil war means that the two wars have absolutely nothing in
common. To apply the strategy of one of these wars to the other is
disastrously wrong.
Indeed, it's much worse than that. The Pashtuns still have scores to
settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern
Alliance, especially the Shias. The Taliban may sit in on peace talks
to gain political cover but they will never, under any circumstances,
agree to a peace deal, no matter how large the American troop surge.
To believe anything else is pure fantasy. US News and Vox and Politico
Related Articles
- Obama flip-flops again on Afghanistan (07-Jul-2016)
- Analysis of Afghanistan vs Iraq wars (26-Sep-2009)
- Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Afghan civil war,
Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Iraq, Iran/Iraq war, Great Iraqi Revolution,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaeda in Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal
John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe
