05-19-2017, 05:52 AM
The thread changed at Leip's Election Atlas. I'm changing my model some, too. I expect few favorability polls hereon, but for states that get polled rarely I might show them if they create few problems.
I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.
The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;;6&AK=0;;4&AZ=1;F;7&AR=2;;7&CA=1;;9&CO=1;;2&CT=0;;5&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=1;;3&GA=0;;5&HI=0;;7&ID=0;;6&IL=0;;5&IN=0;;5&IA=1;;5&KS=0;;5&KY=0;;6&LA=0;;5&MD=1;;9&MA=1;F;9&MI=1;;5&MN=1;;5&MS=0;;5&MO=0;;5&MT=2;;5&NV=0;;3&NH=1;;5&NJ=1;;9&NM=0;;4&NY=1;;9&NC=1;;5&ND=0;;5&OH=0;;5&OK=2;F;9&OR=0;;5&PA=1;;7&RI=0;;6&SC=1;;4&SD=0;;5&TN=2;;7&TX=1;;5&UT=1;;3&VT=0;;6&VA=1;;7&WA=1;;5&WV=2;;9&WI=1;;7&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
....To be filled in with some backtracking. Go ahead andPlease do not comment on this map; until I say that I am complete in filling it in. I am dropping the Ohio approval poll as it is a composite.
Backtracking, from latest to earliest:
Utah 45-55 (Dan Jones)
Virginia 36-60 Washington Post, George Mason University, third-degree burn
Oklahoma 57-36 Sooner Poll (Oklahoma could be Trump's best state
Pennsylvania, 36-62 Franklin & Marshall College -- huge drop from 2016
New Hampshire, 43-47 U-New Hampshire
Wisconsin 39-59 St. Norbert's College
Colorado, 47-49, Magellan (usual votes in a primary in a midterm
Minnesota, 40-51 Star-Tribune
Ohio, favorability poll by Gravis (not using favorability polls in swing states)
North Carolina, 42-51, Elon
Washington, 40-56. Elway
Texas 42-55, Texas Lyceum (not that I really trust any poll of Texas)
Arkansas 53-39. Hendrix College, Talk Business
Montana 50-42, Gravis
New Jersey 28-61 Fairleigh-Dickinson University
New York 29-67. Quinnnipiac
California, 31-61. PPIC
West Virginia, 58-37 Orion Stategies
Florida, 44-51 University of North Florida
Maryland, 29- 64 Baltimore Sun
Tennessee 51-32 Middle Tennessee State University
South Carolina, 44-47, Winthrop University
Iowa. Selzer 42-47
Michigan. EPIC/MRI 40-54
Arizona 39-49 Data Orbital (favorability) --possibly obsolete
Massachusetts, a composite on several issues, all but one of which has favorable expectations of less than 32%, WBUR
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.
The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma
....To be filled in with some backtracking. Go ahead and
Backtracking, from latest to earliest:
Utah 45-55 (Dan Jones)
Virginia 36-60 Washington Post, George Mason University, third-degree burn
Oklahoma 57-36 Sooner Poll (Oklahoma could be Trump's best state
Pennsylvania, 36-62 Franklin & Marshall College -- huge drop from 2016
New Hampshire, 43-47 U-New Hampshire
Wisconsin 39-59 St. Norbert's College
Colorado, 47-49, Magellan (usual votes in a primary in a midterm
Minnesota, 40-51 Star-Tribune
Ohio, favorability poll by Gravis (not using favorability polls in swing states)
North Carolina, 42-51, Elon
Washington, 40-56. Elway
Texas 42-55, Texas Lyceum (not that I really trust any poll of Texas)
Arkansas 53-39. Hendrix College, Talk Business
Montana 50-42, Gravis
New Jersey 28-61 Fairleigh-Dickinson University
New York 29-67. Quinnnipiac
California, 31-61. PPIC
West Virginia, 58-37 Orion Stategies
Florida, 44-51 University of North Florida
Maryland, 29- 64 Baltimore Sun
Tennessee 51-32 Middle Tennessee State University
South Carolina, 44-47, Winthrop University
Iowa. Selzer 42-47
Michigan. EPIC/MRI 40-54
Arizona 39-49 Data Orbital (favorability) --possibly obsolete
Massachusetts, a composite on several issues, all but one of which has favorable expectations of less than 32%, WBUR
Even -- white
Blue, positive and 40-43% 20% saturation
............................ 44-47% 40%
............................ 48-50% 50%
............................ 51-55% 70%
............................ 56%+ 90%
Red, negative and 48-50% 20% (raw approval or favorability)
.......................... 44-47% 30%
.......................... 40-43% 50%
.......................... 35-39% 70%
.......................under 35% 90%
White - tie.
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.