06-09-2016, 10:35 PM
(06-09-2016, 10:10 PM)Dan Wrote:Quote:One of the biggest reasons Donald Trump is considered to be a long shot to win the presidency is the diversity of the country.
As Joe Scarborough of MSNBC [/url][url=http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/mark-halperin-morning-joe-trump-california?version=meter+at+6&module=meter-Links&pgtype=article&contentId=&mediaId=&referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2016%2F06%2F10%2Fupshot%2Fthere-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html&priority=true&action=click&contentCollection=meter-links-click]put it, “There are not enough white voters in America for Donald Trump to win while getting routed among minorities.”
But a growing body of evidence suggests that there is still a path, albeit a narrow one, for Mr. Trump to win without gains among nonwhite voters.
New analysis by The Upshot shows that millions more white, older working-class voters went to the polls in 2012 than was found by exit polls on Election Day. This raises the prospect that Mr. Trump has a larger pool of potential voters than generally believed.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot...pe=article
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...-election/
Non-college-educated white voters had about 57% participation in the 2012 election and went 62% for Romney. In contrast, college-educated whites had 77% participation and went 56% for Romney. Asians and Latinos have about 50% participation rates, which may reflect large numbers of non-citizens who do not vote.
I jiggled the vote, and figured that if non-college white voters reached the 77% participation rate of educated white people (highly unlikely, as voting tends to increase with the level of formal education), Donald Trump would still lose. The electoral map would look like 2012 less Florida for Clinton. That is still a winning map. Getting the undereducated white vote to vote 69%R would fully flip the map... probably as Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin go R at roughly the same time.
Is there anything that Donald Trump brings to the GOP that widespread contempt for Barack Obama for being you-know-what did not bring?
The nature of the electorate must change if Donald Trump is to become President.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.