Here is my compilation of Nate Silver's estimates of approval for President Trump. It's his algorithm, but my interpretation. I show this because his algorithm is more complete than my compilation and better compares states. I may not (more precisely, the polls that I have) agree with him. He doesn't have a poll of likely voters in one state and registered voters in another as I must to compile data. I am keeping "my" map of extant polling.
Colors are garish (for this I apologize), but in essence, President Trump must win everything in any shade of blue or green (except perhaps Iowa) and win three of the four states in pink that have 15 or more electoral votes (Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) to win re-election.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=2;99;7]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;;7&AK=3;;6&AZ=3;;2&AR=2;;7&CA=1;;7&CO=1;;3&CT=1;;5&DE=1;;5&DC=1;;7&FL=1;;3&GA=3;;2&HI=1;;7&ID=2;;7&IL=1;;5&IN=2;;2&IA=3;;2&KS=2;;5&KY=2;;7&LA=2;;5&MD=1;;7&MA=1;;7&MI=1;;3&MN=1;;3&MS=3;;6&MO=2;;2&MT=2;;5&NV=1;;3&NH=1;;3&NJ=1;;5&NM=1;;5&NY=1;;7&NC=1;;3&ND=2;;7&OH=3;;2&OK=2;;7&OR=1;;5&PA=1;;3&RI=1;;7&SC=3;;6&SD=2;;7&TN=2;;7&TX=3;;3&UT=2;;7&VT=1;;7&VA=1;;3&WA=1;;5&WV=2;;7&WI=1;;3&WY=2;;7&ME=1;;5&ME1=1;X;5&ME2=1;X;5&NE=2;;7&NE1=2;X;7&NE2=2;X;7&NE3=2;99;7)
We can assume that approval ratings reflect the perception of competence and desirability of the President's efforts. Nate Silver does not use existing polls; he has an algorithm, and it is a suitable alternative to a compilation of polls as I have, at the least for completeness.
States in maroon are reasonably assumed hopeless for any Republican nominee short of the new Ronald Reagan against a very weak Democratic opponent, and the approval rating that Nate Silver estimates for Trump in those states largely so indicates. He estimates that the President's approval ratings in such states based upon his algorithm is at or below 30%.
So let's lump the states into categories
ap rate Dem Trp
>= 30% 115 423
31-36% 187 359
36-41% 323 215
42% 374 164
44% 412 126
46-47% 430 208
47% 433 105
48-49% 450 188
50% or more -- Do you really need to know?
Should he win the states in other than those in maroon and medium red, then he has an electoral result similar to that of Obama in 2012. But that implies that he wins states in pink in which he has approval ratings between than 36% and 41% (which cuts off New Mexico, which went to Clinton by 8%, which is a reasonable limit for saying what is close and what isn't), and contains North Carolina (a 4% win for Trump in 2016) which asks for a 'yuge' changes in political expectations and reality. The good news for President Trump is that he has almost three and a half years in which to make that work. The bad news is that he has little room for pushing an unpopular agenda or for any economic meltdown or foreign disaster. As a reminder, Jimmy Carter was doing far better at a comparable time into his single term as President.
All states in pink were close in 2016. Donald Trump will need to win at least three of those with fifteen or more electoral votes, as they include Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania and Florida. But having approvals of 41% or less at this stage just does not look good for the prospect of a re-election of President Trump in states that were close in 2016.
Next come states in which President Trump has an estimated approval rating of 42% -- Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio. Arizona and Georgia were fairly close in 2016, but they haven't gone to a Democratic nominee for President since the 1990s. Ohio and Iowa went for Obama twice but swung strongly for Trump. These states comprise 51 electoral votes, and every one of them will be a must-win state for President Trump except for Iowa (only six electoral votes). President Trump is severely underwater in these states. I color them aqua.
Texas is a category in itself, a state straddling regions and having great diversity en economic life and ethnicity. A right-wing Republican should normally be very popular in Texas, at least since 2000 -- but it looks to have reverted to being on the margin of competitiveness. Trump won it by about the same margin by which he lost New Mexico. It is the second-largest prize in electoral votes. Should President Trump lose Texas, he is losing a landslide in which the Democratic challenger is getting over 400 electoral votes. Trump is underwater with only 44% approval and 49% approval. Texas is in lime green. Texas might not be decided until December of 2020.
Bad as it might be for President Trump to be underwater in Alaska (not a Democratic win since 1964), or either Mississippi or South Carolina (last won by a Democratic nominee in 1976) -- he is barely underwater in those three states with approval ratings of 46% or 47%. Medium green.
Where the President is tied at 47% (Indiana and Missouri in pale blue) he will likely win by mid-single digits, demonstrating the weakness of his defense of his record. States in which he has just less than 50% approval (in medium blue) he will probably win with high single digits. Those in which he has an approval rating of 50% (in navy) or more will go for President Trump by double digits.
Note that Nate Silver does not distinguish the districts of Maine and Nebraska.
Colors are garish (for this I apologize), but in essence, President Trump must win everything in any shade of blue or green (except perhaps Iowa) and win three of the four states in pink that have 15 or more electoral votes (Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) to win re-election.
We can assume that approval ratings reflect the perception of competence and desirability of the President's efforts. Nate Silver does not use existing polls; he has an algorithm, and it is a suitable alternative to a compilation of polls as I have, at the least for completeness.
States in maroon are reasonably assumed hopeless for any Republican nominee short of the new Ronald Reagan against a very weak Democratic opponent, and the approval rating that Nate Silver estimates for Trump in those states largely so indicates. He estimates that the President's approval ratings in such states based upon his algorithm is at or below 30%.
So let's lump the states into categories
ap rate Dem Trp
>= 30% 115 423
31-36% 187 359
36-41% 323 215
42% 374 164
44% 412 126
46-47% 430 208
47% 433 105
48-49% 450 188
50% or more -- Do you really need to know?
Should he win the states in other than those in maroon and medium red, then he has an electoral result similar to that of Obama in 2012. But that implies that he wins states in pink in which he has approval ratings between than 36% and 41% (which cuts off New Mexico, which went to Clinton by 8%, which is a reasonable limit for saying what is close and what isn't), and contains North Carolina (a 4% win for Trump in 2016) which asks for a 'yuge' changes in political expectations and reality. The good news for President Trump is that he has almost three and a half years in which to make that work. The bad news is that he has little room for pushing an unpopular agenda or for any economic meltdown or foreign disaster. As a reminder, Jimmy Carter was doing far better at a comparable time into his single term as President.
All states in pink were close in 2016. Donald Trump will need to win at least three of those with fifteen or more electoral votes, as they include Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania and Florida. But having approvals of 41% or less at this stage just does not look good for the prospect of a re-election of President Trump in states that were close in 2016.
Next come states in which President Trump has an estimated approval rating of 42% -- Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio. Arizona and Georgia were fairly close in 2016, but they haven't gone to a Democratic nominee for President since the 1990s. Ohio and Iowa went for Obama twice but swung strongly for Trump. These states comprise 51 electoral votes, and every one of them will be a must-win state for President Trump except for Iowa (only six electoral votes). President Trump is severely underwater in these states. I color them aqua.
Texas is a category in itself, a state straddling regions and having great diversity en economic life and ethnicity. A right-wing Republican should normally be very popular in Texas, at least since 2000 -- but it looks to have reverted to being on the margin of competitiveness. Trump won it by about the same margin by which he lost New Mexico. It is the second-largest prize in electoral votes. Should President Trump lose Texas, he is losing a landslide in which the Democratic challenger is getting over 400 electoral votes. Trump is underwater with only 44% approval and 49% approval. Texas is in lime green. Texas might not be decided until December of 2020.
Bad as it might be for President Trump to be underwater in Alaska (not a Democratic win since 1964), or either Mississippi or South Carolina (last won by a Democratic nominee in 1976) -- he is barely underwater in those three states with approval ratings of 46% or 47%. Medium green.
Where the President is tied at 47% (Indiana and Missouri in pale blue) he will likely win by mid-single digits, demonstrating the weakness of his defense of his record. States in which he has just less than 50% approval (in medium blue) he will probably win with high single digits. Those in which he has an approval rating of 50% (in navy) or more will go for President Trump by double digits.
Note that Nate Silver does not distinguish the districts of Maine and Nebraska.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.